Why Iranian American Immigrants Excel: Grit, Education, and the Fight for a Free Iran - podcast episode cover

Why Iranian American Immigrants Excel: Grit, Education, and the Fight for a Free Iran

Oct 28, 202548 minSeason 4Ep. 18
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Episode description

What explains the outsized success of Iranian Americans—and can that same resolve help tilt the future of Iran? We bring together two sharp voices to unpack a story that spans kitchen-table sacrifice, elite migration, and a culture where A’s are expected and grit is non-negotiable. From early professional cohorts in medicine and engineering to founders in Silicon Valley, we trace the “immigrant trifecta” of aspiration, constraint, and discipline that turned upheaval into momentum.

The conversation takes a turn as we examine a new surge of identity among Gen Z. Campus Persian classes fill up, clubs form overnight, and students study Iranian rap as political speech—all sparked by the Woman Life Freedom movement. That awakening reframes the assimilation question: instead of fading ties over generations, political courage in Tehran is restoring pride in Boston, Irvine, and beyond.

We then wrestle with the hardest part: how change might actually happen. One guest makes the case for a single unifying figure—often pointing to Reza Pahlavi—to synchronize a divided diaspora and guide a path toward the ballot box. The other argues for system-first thinking, a coalition over charisma, and legitimacy grown from within Iran. Both agree on two truths: the regime is weaker than it looks, and enduring transformation must be led by Iranians inside the country. History offers context and hope—more than a century of Iranian constitutionalism and secular aspirations provides a deep native tradition to build upon.

You’ll leave with a clear map of the forces at play: the economics of a strained state, the psychology of exile politics, the power of youth networks, and the quieter heroism of families who traded comfort for possibility. If this conversation challenged you or sparked a new angle, share it with a friend, subscribe for future episodes, and tell us: does Iran’s path forward need one voice—or many?

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The Center for Demographics and Policy focuses on research and analysis of global, national, and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time. It involves Chapman students in demographic research under the supervision of the Center’s senior staff.

Students work with the Center’s director and engage in research that will serve them well as they look to develop their careers in business, the social sciences, and the arts. Students also have access to our advisory board, which includes distinguished Chapman faculty and major demographic scholars from across the country and the world.

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This show is presented by the Chapman Center for Demographics and Policy, which focuses on research and analysis of global, national and regional demographic trends and explores policies that might produce favorable demographic results over time.

Transcript

Welcome And Guest Intros

SPEAKER_03

The Feudal Future Podcast.

SPEAKER_01

Hello and welcome to another episode of the Feudal Future Podcast. I'm Marshall Taplansky.

SPEAKER_03

I'm Joel Khotkin.

SPEAKER_01

And today, Joel, we're going to be talking about the role of Iranian Americans in society and the exceptional success that Iranians have had here since the Iranian Revolution of the late 70s. And to help us with that, we've got two wonderful guests. Roya Hakakin is an Iranian-American journalist and lecturer and writer.

She was born in Iran, came here as a refugee, now a naturalized citizen, author of three acclaimed books, including Journey from the Land of No, Assassins of the Turquoise Palace, and A Beginner's Guide to America for the Immigrants and the Curious. And along with her, we have Bijan Kyan. Bijan has served as a senior official under three presidents President George W. Bush, President Obama, and President Trump.

He's recognized around the world as a senior executive in global trade and international security, and he's a member of the White House Business Council. Bijan and Roya, welcome. Thank you for having all. Joel, would you like to uh start us off?

SPEAKER_03

Well, one of the things that obviously strikes anyone, particularly if you live here in uh great Greater Orangelis, um is the the footprint of the um of the Persian community here is pretty pretty pretty powerful. What do you think uh what do you think was key to the success

Why Iranian Americans Succeed

of this community? Because it all the numbers we're seeing is just well above average incomes, well above average uh education. So uh you know try to explain to to those of us who are not Persian why that took place.

SPEAKER_02

Uh Roy, are you gonna go ahead? Or would you like we can take a shot at it?

SPEAKER_00

We can compliment each other and you can fill in for where I fall short. Um I think um, well, um I do think that um we are an exceptional nation, but uh that aside, um I think you're also looking at a particular combination of factors that uh account for the enormous success of the Iranian community in the United States.

And by the way, several years ago, Amy Chua and her husband Jed Rubinfeld, Amy Chua of Tiger Mother Fame, published a book called The Trifecta and um and lined out or delineated sort of three um important factors in determining the success of nine most successful immigrant communities in the United States. And of course, Iranians, Jews, Chinese, Nigerians were among the nine.

And so, you know, education was one of those three factors, which is a value that a lot of Iranians who um came to the United States really um stressed uh upon.

Um, however, I have to say that you're also looking at a very exceptional um uh strata of the Iranian society who have come to the United States, you know, prior to the revolution or immediately after the revolution, many of those who came were among the elite of the Iranian society, whether they were elite within the government or elite within the academia and the professional layers of the Iranian society, they came here.

And then over the years in Silicon Valley, these are um, you know, these are trained professionals in Iran who apply and of course um for visas, and of course, who wouldn't want them because they have exceptional talents. Uh, of course, if you go to, you know, other parts of the world, if you go to um Dubai or Turkey or Japan, uh, you'll see a whole other category of Iranians.

But I think the ones who came here were exceptional to begin with, both uh given the social and educational uh background that they came from and the enormous emphasis that their own families and uh communities uh place on education.

SPEAKER_01

Kian, how would you like to uh uh or Pierrean, how would you like to uh amplify that?

SPEAKER_02

Well, Roya said, you know, I'll start, and if I miss something, uh you can fill in the the uh what I missed. I don't think Roya missed anything. In fact, a reference to trifecta of factors contributing to what you see not just in the Iranian American community, but in immigrant communities, uh probably I can I can summarize it in this way, Joel, that if you have a Doberman chasing you, you become a very, very good runner.

And the conditions, the conditions uh uh that the immigrants face um in coming to this land of opportunity, and by the way, um I I disagreed with all those who said that America is not an exceptional entity. Exceptionalism in America is an essentiality of our culture and our history. And I give you one example. We're exceptional.

Whenever there's a disaster anywhere in the world, even if America is at war with a place in the world, if there's a disaster, there's one airplane that takes off from one country with food and blankets and medicine and goes there. Even if the disaster is taking place in a land where America is confronting militarily, it would do it. So we are exceptional. And there are many, many examples. Now, what happens to uh an Iranian American community?

I'm probably a good example of what happened in and it is really spelled out in the book Trifecta that uh Roya was referring

Culture, Education, And Grit

to. It we are tough on our children. We want A's and A pluses, it's part of our culture. I used to I used to talk to my daughters, I have two daughters, and uh I would say, you need to get A's because B's sting. And they would make fun of that, but it's ingrained in their in their psyche that they have to do exceptionally well. We push our children. I don't know if that's good or bad, but it's a reality. It's a reality, and we always feel like we need to do better.

It's part of the culture, and in every family, of course, this is not something that's so unique to Iranian Americans. I think every parent wishes for their children to be better than than they were, and of course, they would like their children to live in a better world. And of course, to have a better world, it takes uh a bit of uh competition and energy and hard work.

And uh I I tell you, Joel, I mean, all these years I've been looking at the at the Iranian American community, I'm so proud of the accomplishments of so many. And of course, you know, uh the society is good in finding people who've written books and done, you know, things in government or academia. I mean, they get highlighted and they get, you know, uh limelight is placed on them. But there are so many heroes.

There are so many women who kept a family together by hard work from you know, doing whatever they could for a greater cause, which was to send their children to schools like Chapman University, the great university. I'm always uh reminded it happened, something happened long time ago, but I'm still very proud that my local university's rowing team beat Harvard.

And uh I uh, you know, I I know uh people who worked extremely hard, um sometimes two, three jobs to be able to send uh their children to good universities so they could come out and do all the good things that uh that you see uh is being done by the Iranian American community. Roy is right, I think. I think uh when we look around, we look at the environment, which is competitive. The United States, I always say, is the Olympics.

No matter how good you are, when you get here, you're competing with the best of the best in the United States. But the good part of it is there is an incentive. You can, if you work hard, send your children to best schools, and you know, they could come out and contribute. And Roya mentioned Silicon Valley. Um, I think the uh the entrepreneurial spirit, I is I shared this with you.

I was at Gallup once and talking to Jim Clifton, and he said, you know, Bijan, it's not so difficult to find people who are good at mathematics or good at music or something. You find them and they show themselves. But how do you find entrepreneurs? How do you find the the kid that uh at six years old uh set up a lemonade stand? And how do you find them? They you have to really look for uh very special things.

And when we look at the uh when we look at the uh Iranian American community, maybe we don't find the lemonade stand, but we do find that spirit of hard work and striving to be the best they can be. And uh I think uh the United States Army or the Marines uh uh have that saying, but the Iranian American family can very easily adopt it and claim it themselves.

SPEAKER_03

But what one thing that we we've heard in our conversation with the community is the concern about the next generation, which is obviously always a a quick concern. I mean, obviously immigrants, including from our own families, you know, they were very motivated. They were, you know, they were they they would work and sacrifice, but in the next generation, for one thing, there's a significant amount of intermarriage.

Um and and do you fear that the Iranian Americans will sort of lose their edge as they become more American and less Iranian?

Assimilation And The Next Generation

SPEAKER_00

I think that's a perennial threat for all immigrant communities, right? Um, I mean, the Jewish community worries about assimilation. You know, they come from they came from Europe and they remembered all the atrocities that they had experienced and and they uh really adhered to their um you know religious practices and values. And then two, three generations later, um, the children won't remember the experiences of their ancestors and they simply want to blend in.

Um, I don't think that's unique to Iranians, but I but what makes the Iranian issue um really uh in a in a in a very interesting way, uh slightly more complex. And I can see it in my own children, you know, uh Bijan has two daughters, I have two sons, and they just entered college.

And and you know, we grew up, um, we didn't grow, I mean, they didn't grow up in Los Angeles, they grew up in uh, you know, on the East Coast, and in the community they were in, um, there were not uh uh Iranians uh around them. So the the majority of the Iranian culture experience language that they absorbed was at home with me and you know and family who visited.

Um, but they went into college and all of a sudden, you know, one of them is taking Persian one-on-one, and the other one wanted to, you know, start a Persian club. And I think um what's what's very interesting has been very interesting, especially over the past 10, 15 years, and to kind of take a political um detour in our conversation. Um, the events within Iran have given a sense of pride to the young generation.

SPEAKER_03

You talk about the resistance to the regime. Exactly.

SPEAKER_00

You know, my kids were glued to their laptops watching uh, you know, the events on the streets of Iran, the woman right freedom uh uh life freedom. Um, and and you know, they were singing the songs, revolutionary songs that um the younger generation in Iran were singing, my son uh took up um a whole to uh the assignment of writing a whole analysis of uh rap culture in Iran, and and rap culture in Iran is is a very, very political uh medium. So uh I think if if the events in Iran, um,

Pride Renewed By Protests In Iran

especially over the past few years, weren't as electrifying as they have been, then we could worry about our children forgetting or wanting to divorce themselves from their Iranian heritage. But but what is what has been incredibly important is that the events within Iran have infused the generations here with a great sense of uh pride and a great sense of belonging.

And I think as long as that goes on, we can have hope that um the new generation um of Iranian immigrants uh who are born here would still want to carry on their traditions.

SPEAKER_01

This is a wonderful thing to follow up with Bijan, because it seems to me that there is an implicit political force that is evolving from the diaspora community of Iranians here in the United States that might be able to be used to pressure the regime in some way. Are you finding that government policy here is taking that into account, Bijan? Or how do you see the government viewing this um catalyzed community of younger people who are living here uh vis-a-vis the the regime in Iran?

SPEAKER_02

Uh yes, uh Joel, you asked the question about the future of next generation, and I'd like to visit that, if you don't mind, real quickly, and then move on to how what happens inside Iran affects the generations here, and uh vice versa, what impact they could possibly have on events over there in Iran. First, let me just share this with you. As

Diaspora Influence On U.S. Policy

I was listening to Royal, I remembered someone said that under the the uh the Statue of Liberty, there is a line that says, Give me your poor, give me your destitute, and so forth. And someone said that a an immigrant with the help of a nail etched into the stone these words under the sentence, give me your poor and all that. And he just engraved with the nail We came here not empty handed. And I was thinking about what that could mean.

Well, we were talking about you visiting Mehragon uh in in Irvine, big gathering there, uh wonderful occasion, and I want to remind us of No Rus. So as long as our children have these um treasures, cultural treasures, and of course in in uh the other parts of the community, in the Jewish Iranian community, they bring the traditions, they bring the uh the Rosh Hashanah, they they bring the the uh traditions that really are ingrained in the culture of the families, and these would help.

My two daughters, and now my two granddaughters will never ever forget nourus as they Christmas, as Christmas is important to them, so is Norus. And uh as as Mehrigon is important to them, so is Thanksgiving. So it's the best of these cultures that drive them and keep the culture ingrained. Now, as to what is happening uh inside Iran, I think the credit goes to the brave people in Iran who really showed the world what this woman life freedom campaign was all about.

And it showed the Islamic Republic in Iran that they cannot resist, that they have to give up. Joel, I don't know if you've heard this, but they themselves, the Islamic Republic in Iran, the Ministry of Guidance, conducted a survey that asked the questions about how satisfied you are with the government. Official number was 73% of respondents said they don't want the Islamic Republic anymore.

SPEAKER_03

And they and they published that.

SPEAKER_01

And that was the official number.

SPEAKER_02

And they published that. They published that, yes. Yes. Actually, the most interesting part was this that they published that. So what are they trying to tell the world? Perhaps those who conducted the survey are saying, we know, we are not welcomed anymore. The Iranian people don't want us anymore, without a doubt.

And I believe uh Joel, Roya, and uh friends, uh, if students are listening, you could do your own research and see if there's a correlation between uh what happened there and what the world is reacting to right now. The world is saying, look, Islamic Republic, you're not legitimate anymore because your people don't want you. So whatever we have to do to look like we're good diplomats and continue negotiations and all of that, we do. But when we

What Could Replace The Regime

look at you, Islamic Republic, you look like a persistent threat. So I think that's uh that's an interesting correlation to make.

SPEAKER_01

So the one of the questions that people in uh the national security and the domestic uh political world have been asking is if those numbers were to take their full flower and in fact there would be a change of regime, what would replace it? And it strikes me that um that is probably a debate within the Iranian community here that is that is uh pretty full sub. How do you guys view that?

SPEAKER_02

I like to take a shot at this if Roya doesn't mind, and and just tell you this that uh there are certain arguments about the form of government that divides the community seriously, and it goes on. And the Islamic Republic likes nothing better than that. Continue talking about whether a republic form of government or a monarchy is more appropriate, or what would people in Iran choose? The wider this divide, the happier the Islamic Republic.

But the reality is if you go to people of Iran today, and if you could conduct a fair, objective, transparent survey and ask them, what do you think the content of your future government should be? They would not hesitate to say, I want to be able to measure my satisfaction of the government that supposedly worked for me. I want to be able to participate in a meaningful, measurable way in decisions that would affect my life.

I like to have equal opportunity, not equal wealth, not equal uh income, but I like to have equal opportunity in education, in healthcare, and security. I like my children to be able to get what uh any other child anywhere else, maybe in a more prosperous city or part of the country, gets that. And uh lastly, but most importantly, people would say, I like to be in charge of my own destination and choose the form of government and choose people who are going to rule over us.

This is what the Iranian people would tell you. This is a population that's about 80% under 40 years old. They have not seen anything but the Islamic Republic, but they know the reason 73% or maybe more are dissatisfied with this uh government is because this government looks very much, y'all, looks very much, and I'm speaking in technical terms, not emotional, like a failed state.

The problem is with the definition of the failed state, you don't have boundaries, you don't have the meets and bounds of where does failure show itself. It's within degrees, and it's done uh intentionally, I think so that it's not so easy to call a country a failed state. But any angle I take, Islamic Republic is a failed state. What comes after is going to be determined by the people of Iran. You know, this needs an organized move that confronts this this government and says your time is over.

SPEAKER_01

Game over. So, what role do the Iranian Americans of a younger age play in that pressure?

SPEAKER_02

Well, they will stand right by the Iranians inside and ask them how we can help you, but you know, 90% or more uh of the future um governance in Iran is gonna have to come from inside Iran, without a doubt, without a doubt. But I'm sure the opportunity is gonna be there, the demand is gonna be, I mean, the pent-up demand is gonna be so high that we wouldn't have enough talent to be able to capture the growth. The future of Iran, a free Iran is extremely bright, extremely bright.

The combination of the under-40s inside Iran and this wonderful, wonderful group of young uh Iranian Americans like Roya's sons who go to university and pick up, you know, take Persian classes and pay so much interest in what is going on there. Uh I I believe in a very bright, very bright future uh for Iran because it's uh people like uh the youth in Iran that I talk to almost every day uh gives me hope and more than hope, uh faith in the future that's gonna be very successful.

And of course, uh young Iranian Americans like Royal Sons who will be ready to go back and contribute. And there would be no shortage, Joel, of uh of talent and enthusiasm in building a free new Iran.

SPEAKER_00

I think you're asking if I'm not wrong, um, you know, are there opposition members to whom people can turn or look up? Am I correct? In or at least you're yes, that is right.

SPEAKER_01

That that was that was going to be where I was going to go to next is um who are who's the community catalyzing around?

SPEAKER_00

Right. So so I think that has been one of the greatest um guarantors of the regime's survival, the fact that um in despite all the accomplishments that the uh Iranian community has had in the United States and and in in many other parts of Europe too, um the one um very glaring shortcoming and uh lack um

Iran’s Century Of Secular Aspirations

of anything really meaningful to turn to has been the absence of a unified coalition against the Iranian regime. Now we can you know psychoanalyze this, you know, how did this happen? Why did this happen? For um for my own purposes, I believe that the regime has played a very active part uh over the past 46 uh plus years in trying to uh divide the community. And I think that has worked in in a variety of ways.

You know, social media is just the only most recent incarnation, but you know, in uh over the decades, they have spent uh a great many resources on making sure that the that the diaspora community remains incredibly divided, and it has happened.

So I think the the the really um the most hampering part of why there is no there hasn't been change in Iran uh is the absence of a credible leadership that has been able to unify uh not just diaspora, but but give hope and you know be a representative for people inside Iran. Um that said, I think, you know, the uh change, um, as Bijan was mentioning, um, will ultimately come from within Iran.

And I think that we will be surprised by figures who can potentially emerge, figures who um we don't even know but will um play an important part. And I think, you know, uh whether it was during the Woman Life Freedom or um uh uh earlier on in 2009 during the green movement, there were always uh faces that we didn't know who suddenly appeared um among the leadership who surprised us. And and um I am uh counting on that.

What another connection that I really want to make, um not just because I've been studying this period recently, but but I think um all viewers, whether Iranian or uh American, um should be aware that there is a huge difference between the experience of a social movement in Iran, which has been there from the moment that the regime came to power for secularism, for a government that separates between mosque and state, has been part of the Iranian history for over a hundred years.

And this is a practice that that is very important in guiding um, you know, not just generations but nations uh towards the massive historical changes that that um that one would hope to see um occur. You know, Iran um had a constitutional movement um in the early part of the 20th century, and and a parliament and a constitution uh were established in Iran um hundred and you know, 20 years ago.

Prior to that, there is a very important enlightenment movement, you know, with its own Iranian characteristics, but an enlightenment movement nonetheless that began, that had in many ways all the features of the Enlightenment era of um of Europe. And so it isn't just what's happening in Iran today that makes me hopeful.

It's also this very much unknown history of a very serious intellectual, a culture of social movement, a history of uh a serious um demand for the separation of uh religion and state that has been brewing in Iran for nearly 150 years. And I think that's uh ultimately what gives the Iranians an edge. It isn't just what's happening in Iran today, this current generation that has uh electrified everyone.

Um, but it's also this history that that I think whether um you know um it succeeds today or you know in in an immediate future has been there, and I count that as a social movement that will ultimately reach its goal.

SPEAKER_01

So the reemergence of that movement, which would ultimately reject orthodoxy as a um as a political and military force needs to arise. So what what do you think the catalyst will be for that to happen?

SPEAKER_02

Let me let me just jump in, uh Joel, and offer a little bit more more precise picture opening up uh what

Who Leads The Opposition?

Roya discussed. The the constitutional movement in Iran um culminated in the in the um moderating the monarchy's absolute power which was a great big thing that happened in the Ghajar dynasty. And uh the result was in 1906 and 1907 a constitution that was actually a deal made between the Shia clerics and Gajar dynasty. The Shia clerics uh if you want to know them just take a look at what you see in Iran and you get a glimpse as to what they were before a lot worse.

And the dynasty that was ruling Iran the Gajar dynasty was the most incompetent dynasty in the history of the world and uh they made a deal they made a deal the Shia cleric said look we'll keep your particular Qajar dynasty in place forever and you keep us forever in the power and uh a lot of back and forth and uh the cleric that was interested in keeping religion in that constitution was hanged but it made sure that the clause that would keep the power within the clergy would go in there and

this and the addenda to the constitution forever and make it unchangeable.

So I celebrate the constitutional movement uh which happened prior to 118 years ago but I regret to say that what was the result of it in that book gave the power in a deal um to the religious uh entities in looking at change and looking at who can who can really bring in who can be the voice who could be the Martin Luther King who could be the George Washington we need a name we need a not not a bunch of names but we need a single voice and today when we look around there's only one person in

the community inside and outside and many may may disagree with it but it's a reality and that name is the the crown prince of uh of Pahlavi dynasty Reza Pahbi the more you look the more you hear that people trust him and like him more than anyone else so they're likely to follow him if the Islamic Republic lets such a thing happen because they won't they will sit there and sow dissent and separation and people want to say well I I don't want I don't want him to go and establish monarchy he says

I'm not going there to establish monarchy I'm leading you to the ballot box the people of Iran are going to make that decision but the fights continue and uh you know I can I can assure you that if you look carefully you would see a lot of games dirty games that are being played right now so that people don't unite so that this this uh harmonizing of the voice and synchronizing it against the Islamic Republic does not take place.

But if you're looking for one name if you're looking for the most likely voice that's Reza Al Abi.

SPEAKER_00

I can tell you that from my perspective so what I mean he's sitting on the left of me and and he has uh this uh rightist but but he's a rightist position uh for and I'm I'm sitting uh on this side and I'm saying that um it's it's a great pairing because I uh disagree with Bijan um I think that um the name that he's offering uh has been around in the United States for over 45 years and has it especially in the past uh few years he has missed great opportunities um to bring people together that a

lot of the divisions are that the Iranian community is experiencing is in fact uh being fueled by members of his own uh coalition and people who are among his supporters um I don't I don't see um uh any singular individual um in diaspora who um has you know the support of people inside and outside of Iran the the credit I have to give to Bijan is that people in Iran um in retrospect when they reflect on what life was like 50 years ago and what life is like now do say that uh you know we had it

much better under the Pahlavis.

SPEAKER_01

But that doesn't immediately translate into um so this other Pahlavi um who hasn't shown any um leadership uh leadership ability um hasn't been able to really create uh any solidarity um among the community within or uh without Iran and has never had any sort of um experience within uh government can I'm not important you can disagree with me but you're disagreeing with a lot of people my friend yes I know a lot of people but what the two of you have in common ever ever the diplomat on my on my

side what the two of you have in common is the realization that somebody needs to step up there needs to be some figure that you can point to that's as a leader that both the both the diaspora but far more importantly the population of Iran today

Can A Single Leader Unite Iranians?

can get behind to be able to unseat the existing regime.

And to from what I under what I can hear from both of you is there is no unanimous choice for that when you look at both the communities there may be um a strong uh uh temporary lead on the part of uh the crown prince in terms of in terms of visibility and uh and uh notability but that that catal that figure that can be the catalyst has not yet arisen is that fair you know david hume says the future is under no obligation to mimic the past the employee so don't don't recite the past as an

evidence of today or what comes I think what we need to do the past I'm sorry um the past 46 years and and what uh Reza Pahlavi has managed to do or are you talking about the past prior to 1979?

SPEAKER_00

I'm not sure I understand what you're I just don't take the past to be a guide for the future either way the past I don't dictate the past the future is under no obligation to mimic the past and I believe in that I believe in that the future is unknown so I I uh believe you know your sense of difference but like I said I'll repeat this you're in the minority you're in the minority in politics and you have to realize I don't know where your majority uh well you know and I almost I almost think

but I believe anecdotal no no no I mean anecdotal evidence just walk in the streets and say would you like to listen to Bijan Kian or would you like to listen to Reza Pahlavi they would tell you they like to listen to Reza Pahlavize the the name Pahlavi of course but I'm nearly 90 million people and I cannot say what the majority believe there's a lot of people who are all leaders no one is taking the leadership away in fact it's essential that we all feel our burden of responsibility because he

himself has said many times we must move from an individual to a thought and from a person centric to a system centric thinking he's said it many times anytime he has called for a demonstration or protest um in diaspora uh people don't show up the only uh dias people in diaspora haven't shown up um it's not this is not about I'm not here to win the argument with you I'm just here to remind you you're in the absolute minority roya but but the question is where does your majority come from from

social media from anecdotal number of people on Twitter you like but did you take a did you take anecdotal role from people uh you know in a in a ballot box in a through an election or is this some social media phenomenon what you see is the brand you said it yourself is a brand he's well known you're not I'm not he's I don't want to be anybody's leader i'm I'm happy being behind you know at my desk writing that's not the point leader and we are grateful to you okay um thank you i uh all I'm

trying to say is that uh whether it's Reza Pahlavi or other people within the diaspora nobody has managed um to take the position of leadership yes of course he he has a more recognizable name and nobody has been able to create a unified coalition uh upon which people inside Iran can rely and then hopefully take to the streets those things have to happen and nobody has shown the power to be able to it may happen soon Roya all right well the this this this well that is an interesting question in

and of itself and so what we'd like to at at the end and we're gonna be obviously continuing to work on this what what I'd like to get each of your uh estimates on how long do the mullahs have uh you know are they gonna be there for 10 years five years or are they gonna be overthrown next month you go ahead first roy um I um I forgot my crystal ball today but um we expected it i think i think that as far as i'm concerned uh what it what seems very feels very scary to me is that even though the

mulas have never been weaker than they have been since June of uh this year um what what is very scary is that they have shown great resilience in restoring themselves and reconstituting themselves back to power over and

How Long Do The Mullahs Have?

over again because there have been periods over the past 50 years when or almost 50 years when they have been in greatly weakened positions whether it was at the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988 or it was after the you uh the um in 1997 when Europe cut ties with Iran all of Europe cut ties with Iran um and sanctioned it because of uh the assassinations that had taken place throughout Europe um after after the trial in uh berlin germany um and so that boycott was the biggest that the

international community had carried out against Iran it always finds a way of of resurrecting itself and so that that's what I'm afraid of that even though they appear incredibly weak um they also have been uh resilient and and flexible in in adapting to new circumstances um however I think they're also very pragmatic and they realize that something needs to give if they're going to survive and therefore I think it we may very well witness a moment where something a more um uh adaptable a more

um internationally uh appealable uh character from within among the the ones they have um been calling as reformists uh for the past 20 years might will emerge as the alternative to the orthodoxies of the current leadership to to make it possible for some remnant of this regime to continue to go on i assume do you had did you bring your crystal ball and and and you you you do have you did you bring your crystal ball so uh i'll i'll uh i'll take what uh roya said and i'll add to it that there's

another side to it the resilience that roya is referring to for the mullahs is a thing of the past that resilience is not there the way i look at it is how much does the government of Islamic republic owe to its central bank what is the ability of the government to pay back what it's owed to the central bank what is the uh obligation of banks who have borrowed from the central bank and what is their ability to repay what are the total loans that individuals now I could tell you within the

so-called reformers camp that have accumulated the pilford the public offers for years because of a system that Jorgen Abramas correctly described it a leftist a a critic of the left uh says when you have the in circle and outside the circle people or what the Iranians called khodi and later khodi meaning of us and not of us you end up with this this uh this crowd called reformers who many many of them are in jail and they don't have they have not accumulated wealth but many of them have

accumulated wealth why are they so keen in somehow keeping it because they want to hold on to those monies to those to those to the wealth but what Roya um please consider is the people of Iran how long how long do you think a mother is going to tolerate having to uh lower herself into a trash can to maybe find something to eat for her children how long do you think a country can survive when the commander in chief has gone into hiding yes you haven't seen the Chaosco moment yet and you say

they're resilient.

SPEAKER_02

They're not resilient. What country can survive when the top layer of military the command control communications is disrupted so I'm answering the question how long can this last?

I cannot I cannot tell you that it will fall today or tomorrow or next week but I can tell you with confidence what we see if we take all the indicators of a failed state you're looking at it Islamic Republic cannot hold up plus this is I believe change will happen in the hands capable hands of Iranian people but I cannot forget that other countries have interests and they will act in line with their interests.

They're probably not thinking about a better life for the Iranian people when they do that they shouldn't first principle of foreign policy formation is to serve self-interest and that's a very logical thing. Will Islamic republic exist the way we know it tomorrow I have this observation Islamic Republic is dead what we knew is not there anymore.

Take any indication you want take the freedom indication take the economy indication anything you want and tell me if you could find five reasons to say Islamic Republic is not dead. Yes they're resilient but people are also determined they're very patient but they're gonna price they're going to take their country back without and and both of you have this notion that the regime is living on borrowed time in common.

SPEAKER_01

And with that I want to thank you both for sharing your

Final Reflections And Close

insights and your perspectives and this is one of the most fascinating issues to both of us and we're looking forward to to talking to you more about because we're going to be working on on the Latin American program would draw you out anytime Joel.

SPEAKER_03

Okay all right thank you so much thank you thank you bye bye bye bye bye the feudal future podcast

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