The Underlying Political & Economic Issues in the Middle East

He's a distinguished fellow in strategy and statement ship at Hudson Institute and you may know him more as the global view columnist at the Wall Street Journal . His latest book , the Ark of the Covenant , the United States , israel and the fate of the Jewish people , was called by the New York Times the best book of the year .

Walter , welcome , we're delighted to have you . It's great to be here . Terrific Joel , you want to kick us off ?

And a lot of American foreign policy types , I think a lot of Americans , you know sort of Americans who don't follow foreign policy that closely but their emotions are invested on one side or the other in the Middle East would say it's an Israeli . The Israeli-Palestinian struggle is the center of Middle East politics .

Very few people in the Middle East believe that . There's some Palestinians who wish it were true , but in general people say it's the conflict of Iran with the Sunni world . The Sunni Arab world is the big conflict and to some degree , iran with the United States , although the United States is doing its best not to be part of that conflict .

You can hold up the economy of the world to ransom . You don't need OPEC anymore . You are OPEC , and the Iranians would very much like to have that power .

And the Iranians are extremely good at that , and the Biden people were , and the Obama people were seduced on the one hand by they're , these moderates , and really the only thing that's keeping the hardliners in power is American opposition .

And so , just like in Esobs Fable , if you stop being the cold north wind and the rain and you become the warm sunshine , then Iran will open up and friendship will be possible and the natural democratic tendencies of the Iranian people will triumph . And they believed it .

I mean , I've talked to very , very senior people in the world of democratic foreign policy and they believed that .

But I think maybe one reason they were so willing to believe that is because for President Obama and I think also for President Biden , they asked themselves , as one logically should , when thinking about the Middle East , what's the worst thing that could happen from an American point of view .

What do you really at all costs want to avoid , and for them , well , I don't think either of them wants or wanted an Iranian nuclear bomb . Actually , the worst thing in the Middle East is a US-Iran war , because imagine what you're like . You're a democratic president . If you're Obama , you're .

The whole pillar of your campaign is I knew that Iraq war was a terrible thing A war in the Middle East to bring democracy or to get weapons of mass destruction ? We can't do anything so stupid ever again . And then you do it . Or the same thing for Biden . Think about the state of the Democratic Party today .

Look at what we've seen since October 7th about the feelings of the left , and he's got you know . So if President Biden were to find himself in some kind of war with Iran in the Middle East , he'd have a divided party . I actually don't think that Donald Trump would necessarily think .

You know , I don't really like Joe Biden , but the patriotic thing to do is to support our president in war time . I don't know , maybe I'm a cynic Joe , but there's something that tells me that's not the path that Donald Trump would take . So there are solid political reasons why someone like Joe Biden might just think war with Iran is not an option .

The trouble is , if you think that way and the Iranians figure it out , then they have . They can push your buttons anytime they want , and there's a lot they can do . My sense is they have figured it out , they have read us correctly and they are pushing , pushing , pushing .

We can supplement the Middle East , but we will not replace the Middle East . And for countries like Europe that it's right across the Mediterranean , it's not , you know , I think that's a little unrealistic . And so Iran . And the thing is , you know what ? We have all the oil we want , but Japan is depending on the Middle East .

Iran cuts it off and oil is $200 a barrel in Japan . What happens to the Japanese economy ? What happens to American companies that are invested in Japan ? What happens to stock markets ? What happens to interest rates ? We're not economically independent of the rest of the world , even if we're energy independent .

So I don't think that's a , I think it's a rational thing on their part of view , point of view to say that control of those energy resources gives you an enormous revenue and it gives you a lot of leverage over the rest of the world .

A couple of weeks ago you wrote a really interesting article in the in the journal About Iran not really getting what they were hoping to get out of the out of the Gaza War . Elaborate a little bit on that . Where do you think , how do you think Iran is looking at this Hamas Israel war , and what is it they're not getting ?

Well , the Iranians look , the Biden people have figured out that that if they just try to do what Obama did , which is essentially reach out to the Iranians over the heads of the Israelis , the Saudis , the other Gulf States , that's actually destabilizing in the Middle East because , as those countries , as our allies , get panicky about our intention to both Make a

deal with Iran and walk away from the Middle East , all kinds of things will be happening that we don't want to happen . The Israelis might strike Iran , who knows what right .

So you need to reach out to both and this is what I think Biden has figured out in the last year or so that you're outreach to to Iran , especially since they are not actually going back into the JCPOA , in spite of everything that Biden has done to try to sweeten the deal .

You need to , you know you need to kind of soothe and settle the Saudis and the Israelis . And so what have we been doing ? We're offering a major alliance and strategic guarantee that they would work in together as a coalition . Now , this is . This would have two impacts .

One is that it does , I think , from the by administration point of view , one of things it does is it Increases the chance that the Israelis won't attack Iran if it crosses the nuclear threshold , because you know , after all Europe , you know Russia's had nuclear weapons since the 1940s Deterrence , and so the by administration is hoping that the , an umbrella of

deterrence could . Actually , they don't want an Iranian bomb , but you know it's hard to see how they're gonna stop one if it comes . This is a way to deal with it without a war .

So that's one thing , but the other thing is that it it definitely weakens Iran in the region and it facilitates cooperation among our allies , with at least some American backing , to hold the line against Iran . Iran this will shock you didn't like that idea and Is looking for ways to disrupt it .

And so you know , one of the things you can do is you can create or a political explosion that that makes every one of the Middle East forget how much they hate the Persian Shia heretics who've been responsible for all the massacres in Syria and the destruction of Lebanon and it caused all kinds of mayhem in Iraq and , and you know , going to town in Yemen .

You forget how much you hate them and you remember how much you hate all those Jews in Israel and you try to wrench politics back into this old Arab Israeli framework and make it impossible for the governments Of those countries to continue working with Israel . Now , so far , the other governments have basically Been doubling down on their sense of Iran .

Is the real problem . Israel , you know , israel , worst case Israel would like the West Bank and the other apps don't want that to happen , but it's a limited ambition and Israel is so small that , no matter what it does , it can't threaten the Arab world generally in the Middle East . It's not that kind of a problem .

Well , iran very much is that kind of a problem .

If the , if the Arabs say there's a , we have a list of things we want to buy , vendors are going to appear and they are going to offer to work with you in very friendly ways . But yes , it's an additional thing . I think it's the militia , it's the fact that Israel is Existentially committed to not wanting Iran to dominate the region , which they are to .

I think that's the the core of it .

The universities , which are the , you know , center of a lot of this Political disruption , get a lot of money from , from Jewish people . Is there some reshuffling of political allegiance around this coming up in the US , or you know the .

I've seen some articles about the collapse of Jewish enrollment in the IVs and so on , and so my you know , and it seems reasonably clear that there will be fewer American Jews in the next Generation of IV professors and so on .

That changes more slowly , so I think there is a divergence happening between these communities that is older and , honestly , harvard University doesn't give a rats patootie what the donors think . It has plenty of money . It has . What about something like 40 billion dollars , 48 endowment if 48 billion ?

Well , I'm glad they've been successful and All of that made for me by the way , as as a graduate .

So well , actually , my , my rule with Yale has been , when they ask me for money , that look , you know , when my I think poor Yale is having to hobble by on on bit less than Harvard , maybe 35 , 40 billion on the number , but basically let's say it's 35 when I'm worth 36 billion dollars , I am gonna give half a billion dollars to Yale because I believe it

is Unseemly to be wealthier than your alma mater that is .

Is that going to change the progressives ? Will the squad become the majority in the long run ?

We tend to think , we tend to conflate immigrant groups and blacks as the new , you know , bipoc color , and it's clear that the progressive movement , so to speak , and the Democratic Party more generally , would like for that to happen , for Americans from Central and South America to think of themselves as a racial group like blacks , who have no path to assimilation

into normal Americans . Ditto , I mean normal . I should make sure I'm doing this because we're all normal . What did that happen ? We're all normal . And then there's , you know . But then the reality is , if we look at statistics and so on , you know what they're not .

Asian Americans are not that necessarily interested in being a pressure group or an outside group . Immigrants , by and large , still seem to want to become part of America , and so we're seeing it , we're seeing a struggle here . How do you define yourselves , where do you go ? And it ultimately has something to do , I think , with who do you vote for .

And American Jews are an interesting community because while the other , you know , majority of American Jews descend from people who came to the US and what I call the great wave of immigration between about 1890 and 1923 . And compared to the other groups in that migration , who everybody's become more assimilated , everybody's become more powerful .

Of those groups of immigrants , jews , however , have remained staunchly democratic and on the left in a way that Irish Americans really haven't been , or Italian Americans or you name it , and so , in a sense , that's the exception , and the Jews have continued to , and the majority of American Jews have continued to see themselves as part of this insurgent progressive

element . And they're now I think we're seeing the latest generations are not seeing , you know , they're looking at American Jews and saying you guys have been here for a long time , you're established , you're not actually one of us .

Numerically , that's not going to make a difference to the size of the , you know , a measurable difference to the size of the progressive alignment . And I don't want to shock you guys , but there's actually not that many Jews in the United States .

My question is whether or not you think support for Israel will continue to be solid among the right .

So as the as evangelical people coming out of evangelical backgrounds in the sense are now filling the space , the void in American society left by the collapse of the main line Protestants , you're getting what you can think of as main line Jellicles who you know have more of the theological conservatism although you know that's kind of that tends to fade over time

but also some of the more socially liberal attitudes and also position . You know they're not outsiders , they're not Pentecostal cotton farmers .

You know , outside of notch , as they are doctors , lawyers , they're , you know , inside , inside American society , and they , these people , do seem to be adopting some of the political ideas and that that can also be a kind of a less Zionist thing .

So you always , you know the one , I think , universal human thing is that you want to be different from your parents .

You don't , you don't want to just be like those old fogies and so if the old evangelicals were really pro Israel , one of the ways that you can kind of say not , you could signal not only I'm different from my parents , but like I fit in in college , I fit in with the crowd is like you , just step away from the Zionist stuff .

So I think we are definitely seeing in one wing of this movement we're seeing some change . There's not so much and Pentecostals are really interesting , they tend to be much more pro Israel . I think about that .

We have a lady who comes in once a week and cleans my house and I was having a reception for you know , there was a visiting Israeli person who was here and I was having some journalists over for an off the record briefing you know , journalists of different points of view and stuff and she told me that she hadn't felt good that week and had almost decided

to call and not come in . She'd canceled all her other appointments but for some reason she decided to come in and clean my place and I said I'm really glad to see you because I have this guy from Israel coming into night and she said it must be God's will that I told this to a Jewish friend . He said open the borders now .

It's not that there are these fixed groups and as , as you know , as I write in ARC , in the 1940s and 50s Israel was a left-wing cause , right , right , you know it was . Actually , you know it was .

Oh , paul Robeson , you know the great communist , barrett black bass and then magnificent singer , you know , actually performed at a benefit concert for Irgun Okay , during World War II .

So it's , you know , the , the , the black left , the white left , that in the 1950s Israel was the poster child of the democratic socialist of America because it was the example of how socialism worked . Right , kimber is Far more left-wing than any other country in in the West , so to speak .

And people , the socialists would say oh , you say socialism means no free elections . Look at Israel . You say socialism means weak defense . Look at Israel , you say socialism means the economy doesn't grow . Look at Israel Now , actually in the 1970s , israel becomes more thatcherite . But that was so .

The the political base of emotional attachment to Israel in the American politics keeps changing . So far , it always somebody new comes in of that coalition . When somebody goes out , old goes out . But again , yogi Berra's point , it's the future . We don't , we cannot know what's coming next .

It seems this has been a kind of a 40 year you know 40 year plan to create Arab studies programs to kind of undermine the liberal arts education and view of Israel and the college campuses . Is that pretty much aligned with what you're thinking is ?

Historically it was different , so I actually think it would be . You know , one of the things to look at is , you know , is the role of Saudi money changing ? How has it changed ? What are the differences between Saudi and Emirati money , say , on the one side , and Qatari money on the other ? That would be quite interesting to see , but they're not .

I mean , you know this idea that the , you know , the Arab street is not a monolith , and neither is the Arab suite where the rulers are , and it's more important than ever .

The Abraham Accord showed some of the fishers , but , as I write in Arga , the Covenant , the Saudi and Israeli defense cooperation goes back , quietly at least , to the 1960s when they were working together to block Nasser in Yemen .

So this is , you know , these kinds of stereotypes we have about Arab , this and Israeli , that we do need to look in a little bit deeper .

That said , yes , you know , I do wonder , although I have to say , you know , I've met a lot of the folks , obviously in this Middle East studies universe and the kind of bubble of the resistance wing of the American Academy Middle East studies . They don't actually need anybody else's money to tell them what to do .

You know , they're willing , eager , they're ready , and I think it's a little . Yes , the money makes things easy and stuff like that . But much more important is the shift in the climate and that's where we really have to think about what's going on . And historically , anti-semitism , anti-zionism , anti-capitalism and anti-Americanism often run together .

The chances are , if somebody is burning an Israeli flag , they're not actually en route to a young Americans for freedom meeting or they're not reading a biography , a favorable biography of Margaret Thatcher , right .

Chances are , if they think that Israel is committing war crimes in Gaza , winston Churchill is not one of the historical figures that inspires them , and neither is Franklin Roosevelt , right ? So this , I think , is , you know , to say , okay , it's the fault of this Arab government or it's the fault of this funding stream .

Yes , it's worth following up , and I think we should . But you know , why has the younger . So many in the elite of the next generation , or the people at least who think they're gonna be in the elite of the next generation , have gone down this path .

I do think I wonder how representative these students are actually of opinion , because I think some of the most woke bureaucrats in the entire system are in the admissions departments of these schools . And I really do wonder .

Suppose university boards and presidents made clear that a basic qualification for admission was that you had demonstrated the maturity and the judgment to be able to engage in serious academic and intellectual disputation of very controversial topics , and that someone who is , you know , unable to hear some position without feeling hurt or frightened .

Well , you know , as a human being I can sympathize with that person . But is that person ready to take up one of a precious small number of slots at institutions whose role is to help promote the next generation of American leaders ? Maybe they're not ready .

Right , and I have to tell you , if that kind of word got out , that a dozen presidents of leading colleges made that statement and were actually enforcing it . And , by the way , you can fire admissions department . They don't have tenure and they also they're administrators , they're not faculty who don't have to listen to anybody , and I speak as a faculty member .

Here they are , you know , they have jobs and they can be given instructions and they can be monitored for compliance . Think how fast Dalton School and some of these elite high schools would change their curriculums and approach . Because their business model is you give us 65,000 a year for four years and your kid gets into a top 10 school .

That's their business model . They have nothing else and they are . I was about to say that they are of extremely easy and persuadable virtue when it comes to like how do they carry out ? They will carry out that mission . So you could change high school curriculums and you would very quickly change the climate on campus .

Another thing you can do is you can say , in terms of promotion and faculty hiring , retention , promotion and tenure , we are looking for evidence that this faculty member is able to offer a classroom environment of genuine intellectual diversity , contestation , where students are , you know , learn , develop their skills for civil disagreement and are exposed to a wide variety

of points of view , some of which might come from Hamas and even Osama bin Laden . I am talking about diversity here , but also , amazingly occasionally , somebody who actually kind of thinks America isn't the worst country ever also gets in there and gets civilly discussed Again . I think you know these are things .

They don't infringe anybody's personal freedom , academic freedom . They are about promoting discussion , not shutting it down or restricting . These are things I think , as a practical matter , could actually be done and I think they could have a significant impact faster than you might expect .

But the question I have is isn't it going to require new institutions that these departments , particularly in the liberal arts , are so you know , 9 , 10 , 20 , sometimes 30 to 1 on one ideology ? I mean , don't you have to create some sort of new institution to combat that ?

That's a church official , and he says you know , when Charles II was in charge I talked about don't touch the Lord's anointed . I was a huge monarchist . Right , james II comes in and I'd I'd have been a Catholic , except you know , he fell too fast .

Then the next king comes in and he's a zealous Protestant and he keeps changing and he's like you know what , so ever king may reign , I'll be the vicar of Bray , sir , and I don't want to impugn anybody's orthodoxy or idealism , but very often for the bulk of people there's a relationship between the location of their rice bowl and the direction of at least their

conduct , if not always their thinking . And so I think there may be more space for gradual reformation if there is a will at the top and determination to do it , and if you add to that that you bring in new students who are ready for intellectual diversity seek it out . The climate of promotion and retention and influence is promoting that .

I think you know you might well see some changes , not that you're going to get rid of everything , but you know what I don't want to get rid of every communist on a university campus somewhere in the United States . I actually , you know , a little bit like smallpox . Getting a mild dose of it in your youth can prevent a much worse infection later on .

All right , we're all living more and more in an environment when there's when there's nothing like that , and you know , combination of immigration and the Internet . We are living in these global spaces and so kids have to be able to . You're going to might know somebody who's a Hindu nationalist and thinks Modi is a really fantastic guy .

You know somebody else who's like , thinks Erdogan has really got a great idea for Turkey . You know , you're going to . You're going to know anti-Semites . You're going to know strong Zionists . You're going to know where the era of bubbles is ending . And so what do we need ?

To educate kids in the ability to look at these different things , evaluate them in some kind of serious way and keep their psychological balance In a world that is , in many ways , trying to unsettle them all the time . That is a necessary life skill , and colleges where you should be learning it .

What's the difference between that and genocide ? And she was asking the sense of like , well , you won't go now , you're not going to have an answer for that and what I did ? And you know I said well , you know , genocide , this is actually , you know , legal .

You know people use this in a legal term and I'm I'm not a lawyer , but let me just try to give you some context that on one night in March of 1945 , american warplanes flying over Tokyo dropped in cendiary bombs and it killed about 83,000 Japanese civilians in one night .

And in the last five months of the war in 1945 , not even counting Hiroshima and Nagasaki , the Americans killed about 900,000 Japanese , again largely civilian .

At Potsdam , the allies and the US agreed to the ethnic cleansing of 12 million Germans from the Sudeten land and Prussia and other places you know , not contested lands really , but places where their families had lived for centuries . Women and children were driven out into the snow and in horrific conditions , many died .

Not to say , you know , hey , so nothing matters . But to try to help people understand what history is and why , why it is so , has been so important , why we work so hard to try to build a world order of some kind , and however imperfect , after 1945 . And what is at risk if that starts to fall apart , and how ?

What we're seeing in Gaza , which , yes , it is partly this Arab Israeli struggle , but ultimately , without Iranian money and training and stuff , none of this would have happened . This is actually one of the frontiers in this battle to try to to preserve a decaying world order which is under significant attack on many fronts .

So you know , again , perspective and this gets to Joel's point that when you , when you really don't know anything about how we got here , and you see on TV or on TicToc corpses and and bombed out houses , you have the very natural human reaction .

You know there is railies who've lost family in Gaza , who are , you know , just really sad about the destruction in Gaza . It's a human thing to look at this and not go yeah , yeah , yeah , my side's winning , but to go , oh my God .

So , but if you don't have a historical context , if you don't know what history is full of and how blessed and fortunate we are here in the US , but even just in the last 50 years , despite all the bloodshed and all the wars , you , really you know things like this will knock you off your balance and you won't know how to respond , and your natural human

response to great suffering will lead you into all kinds of mistaken political judgments , simply because you don't know any better . Well , I can't .

It is just well speaking of filling in the blanks on historical knowledge and giving you what you need to be able to really understand the context of the Middle East crisis . It's phenomenal book . So , Walter , thank you so much for joining us on the future podcast the feudal future .