Political Parties and Latino Economic Priorities

Simon Schuster terrific book and it really brings up a lot of the issues that we've been focusing on over the past year in terms of what does it take for success in the Latino community and how are Latinos realigning themselves politically . Joel , you want to kick us off .

The centrality of the problem , as it relates to economics , is housing , housing affordability , housing costs , and it's really on both sides of the housing issue . One in five Hispanic men are employed nationally . One in five Hispanic men nationally are employed in the construction industry or related field . This is residential construction . It's an extraordinary number .

It's basically 20% of the Latino household income comes from construction and industry . And because Latinos are younger 30 is the average age we're at that first time home buying age . So having a housing policy , really a Marshall Plan for housing , is what's required in California If we're going to move anywhere else .

On the economy , and I would even argue on social issues , whether you want to talk about health disparities , poverty issues , even educational attainment , all of this you've got to have a housing policy that gets people into ownership in the state .

Help us understand the transition that Latinos themselves are going through and how they think of themselves differently than they might have thought of themselves , say , 30 years ago .

Certainly the Latino political class viewed this as a momentous moment where multi-generations of Latinos felt under siege , under attack , and voted for the first time as a bloc , as an ethnic voting bloc in the state . And that has persisted , largely in California anyway , until 30 years now , this later date .

But something peculiar is happening , and that is almost 40% of Latino voters are 30 years of age or younger , which means they have no living memory of Proposition . They weren't alive during Proposition 187 . So this catalyzing kind of civil rights moment isn't in their memory .

But what is is this sort of economic populist sentiment that the economy doesn't work , never worked for their parents and isn't working for them . And so we're witnessing the transition of the idea of Latinos being an ethnically racially motivated voting bloc to an economic populist pocketbook voter . And this shift really began in earnest outside of California .

We can get into the whys of why that happened , and really in the largest ethnic demographic transformation in this country in maybe 100 years . California was a lagging indicator . It was behind the times .

It was really the belief that demographics as destiny takes root in the Obama years , with this false assumption that non-white voters are 70% plus Democratic voters , so the Democrats just in the maternity wards would turn the country blue .

That , of course , is a very elementary understanding of ethnicity and the way societies evolve and change generationally and in fact , since 2012 , we have seen a decline of Latino engagement with the Democratic Party to the point now where , as it's rapidly growing nationally , it is becoming a threat to Democrats' ability to hold on to its status as a national party ,

a national force , and all expectations are that that will continue .

But the other part of it , which Jennifer Hernandez , who we've had as a guest , quite often points out , is that the environmental laws that the California Democrats have adopted have been catastrophic for aerospace , for jobs that were the way up for many Latinos .

You know , when I first came and started reporting about LA in the 70s , you know that was the great miracle . You know Latino people coming here working in factories , in some cases starting their own companies , learning a very valuable skill , and the California environmental laws have devastated that as well .

And yet I don't see anybody addressing this , as Jennifer does , as a civil rights issue .

While I agree with a lot of what you just said , this overreach of environmental laws CEQA specifically becomes much more politically fraught . It's kind of like in many ways it's like California conservatives who have tried to kind of attack teachers' unions with Latino , latina voters saying your students are the ones suffering the most .

And while that's true , um , it's just very tone deaf in the in the approach of attacking teachers unions . That was never going to work . I don't know who thought that up . It was a very bad idea . There's just , I think it just doesn't have the cultural nuance and understanding that attacking teachers and or unions is just not . It's not going to work .

And I think it's the same with environmental laws . There's just such a much better way to approach it than to make environmental laws and restrictions , no matter how egregious and overreaching , the center of the debate .

It's not a good situation for anybody , so I can understand your point on that , but one of the points you make in your book , mike , is that , whether or not it's been intentional , latinos are moving more toward the GOP , and I guess my question to you is is there a strategy there on the part of the GOP to do this , or are they succeeding in spite of

themselves ?

Look nationally 71% of all new entrants into the workforce between 2020 and 2030 , we're about halfway through that are going to be Hispanic . It's just the extraordinary tsunami of workers that are Latino entering the workforce . Eighty percent of those are non-college graduates . This is the blue collar workforce . These are the lunch bucket guys .

These are construction sites , energy patch assembly lines . You know swing and hammers and they're voting increasingly like they're non-Hispanic white counterparts . So you know they're listening to Joe Rogan . They're not listening to ranchera music , they're . You know they're consuming media and have their kids playing ballgames on Saturday together .

They don't view themselves much differently . In many ways , it's a very typical assimilative story that we've known throughout our country's history . So you know , in many ways the story is remarkable because it's not that remarkable .

You know waves were extraordinarily large , but a lot of that was more anti-Catholic , you know concern than it was necessarily a different nationality , although they were intertwined . This is different .

And it's different because you know , for the first time in the country's history , at least in the last , you know , century and a half , america will be a non-white European . And some of the differences are because we're so close to the country of origin .

The border between the United States and Mexico is the largest border between essentially a first and a third world country anywhere on the planet . That's one , two . The length of the migration has been like three and a half four decades and technology allows for us to get that continual reinforcement . We're talking to our families every day .

This isn't the stereotypical 12-year-old Italian kid who stowed away on a ship and came across the Atlantic , never to return right . This is like you go back for Christmas every year .

So there's a cultural reinforcement , there's a proximity , there's a technology aspect that has slowed the assimilative process and , I argue , in many ways the melting pot analogy doesn't really work anymore because with this transformation in many ways sort of white Americans are becoming like to just focus on a little bit is governance , and I just want to share an

experience I'm having on something I'm working on with another faculty member at Chapman .

There's a factory . The moment you get into the city they're beautiful medians . So I've been asking in other cities where heavily Latino cities , like Paramount . I'm doing this project on these South LA cities . What's really interesting is these cities , unlike LA , they're completely run by Hispanics .

Almost all the mayors are Hispanic , almost all the council people are Hispanic . But because it's a local government and many of them are second third generation some are moderate Democrats , some are Republicans it seems to be a much better result . The schools are better , what ? What struck me was no graffiti , no homeless , almost no vacancies .

So I think that this model of how Latinos can turn around things is something that is just not being written about and what the problems are . Let's say , in the city of LA , where politics are sort of you know , sort of you know gangsterism , without , without Luciano's rules .

But to me , the biggest transformation from maybe those communities you know , 15 , 20 years ago , when the city of Bell and the , you know those cities were going the corruption corridor , as we've been trying to know it , where there was a lot of immigrants , you know , council members who didn't really understand the civic process , didn't even know they were breaking

the law or pretending they weren't . The difference is that second and third generation that you're mentioning . And let me give you a quick statistic In 2002 , in Los Angeles County , the largest Latino county in America , 54% of all Latino registrants new Latino registrants 54 were foreign born , so over half . By 2022 , 20 years later , that number was at 8% .

But US born Latinos dominate and are overwhelming , and so this immigrant narrative is really becoming a relic of the past . That doesn't mean that the focus of the Democratic Party specifically isn't still on those issues .

It was just a bill vetoed yesterday , I think , or two days ago , allowing a huge down payment assistance to the undocumented to buy houses in California . It's like what are you talking about ? Like there's legal , there's millions of legal Latinos that could use that direct assistance .

We can debate that , but you're setting aside monies for the undocumented for down payment assistance . It's just absurd .

I mean , it just strikes me that when I talk to these Latino mayors in Downey and places like that , I say , hey , these are sensible people . Well , you know , every undocumented person should be allowed in with no restraint or whatever the PC position of the moment is .

I just gave you some good statistics to show you that that is changing , and changing quickly and changing dramatically and that is going to change the politics . That focus will not be there .

In fact , we're witnessing this nationally , where Kamala Harris has shifted the immigration debate to an exclusively border security debate , as in Washington DC a couple of days ago , telling Georgetown this immigration panel .

You know , when I worked for George W Bush in 2000 , if he had heard Kamala Harris's immigration proposal he would say that that was racist and un-American . She's like to the far right of where Republicans were in 2000 . That's how much the Overton window has moved .

So , but part of it , part of the politics of California , has been focused on this overwhelming number of the foreign . As that changes , the politics are changing and we're right on the cusp of something very significant even here in California . The second is housing has really limited economic mobility .

We are starting to see longer term generational poverty and the Democratic Party is a party of very wealthy whites and very poor Latinos in California . That's the coalition and that tenuous coalition and the public sector . Yeah , but that's such a small part of the electorate . I mean , you're talking single digits , but money .

This is a very populist voter . It looks like they're shifting to the right because Republicans are picking up the votes and so technically it's true , but they're not becoming more conservative and I would argue they're not even becoming necessarily anti-democratic . They just find the Democratic Party so damn unrelatable that it's meaningless .

That's 30 years of my experience in working in the Republican Party . They're not comfortable with it . They don't like it . When they're white , they're , they're happy to tell about it . Call them Reagan Democrats and we celebrated that . This is , you know , this is an invasion we're not really comfortable with .

And then you know the Mike Madrid's of the party get patted on the head and say well , you're not one of those , you're a good one , you know . And that's 30 years of dealing with this stuff . We don't need to go down that road . But the Republican Party is very uncomfortable with ethnic , this ethnic transformation . Let me give you another example .

California is 34% white , but the Republican Party is 80% white . Like , if you don't see the racial correlation there , it's because you don't want to see it . It is a white identity party . And so the Republican Party , until it gets back to and it is in some ways being a party of the working class , which the Democratic Party has ceded that ground .

And with working class comes a culture that played by the rules , culture that goes to church or to worship services more regularly than other you know higher educated folks or has children , has children precisely these are .

All create a culture that is increasingly distinct from where the Democratic Party is moving , which is moving rapidly to being a white , wealthier , homeowning , progressive , culturally progressive party . It used to be that the Democrats would castigate the Republican Party saying you guys are starting the culture wars . Well , look at Gavin Newsom , for example .

He's consumed by running abortion ads in Tennessee and Alabama and Mississippi . Right and gun control and marriage equality and legalization of drugs . Where is the working class agenda for a state that is becoming poorer and poorer day by day by day ?

Like you don't see that as part of the agenda of the Democratic Party , because it's not a working man's party anymore . It thinks it is . It still has its visions of FDR and hard hats and building dams , but we can't even build dams in California anymore .

But here's the irony it's not just that the Democrats get that wrong , the Republicans bought into it too . And one of the great ironies is remember the RNC , the autopsy in 2012 ?

We need to broaden the base of the party , and the way you do that is we have to lean into immigration reform , because the Democrats are winning on this issue and they're getting all these Latino votes and we're losing them . So let's just jump onto that too . That was categorically false .

But and this is fascinating the solution or the goal was to diversify the party . That's absolutely true , but the rationale for getting diversify the party that's absolutely true , but the rationale for getting that was completely wrong . Rather than focusing on economic issues , the Republicans tried to copy the Democrats on an issue that was never a motivating issue .

So what happens ? The Republican Party actually becomes more diverse under Donald Trump right than it does under any other president in modern history .

Because now many Latinos find themselves in states that are not you know , one party dictatorships like California .

If they did , they would be a very competitive party because of these economic issues .

You go to Westminster and they're pulling their hair out because their grandkids are all becoming Democrats . Yeah , they're sending them to college and they're becoming professional class and they're motivated far more by cultural issues than they are by anti-communist sentiment from the 1970s . They're losing that ethnic partisan identity . It's going away .

And the Republicans are getting , like I said , despite their best efforts not because of them they have a real problem with the multi-ethnic piece . They have a real problem with the multi-ethnic piece .

And so what explains the contradiction of how the Republican Party is becoming more multi-ethnic is the focus on economics is so strong that it's overwhelming the idea that Donald Trump is a racist . Let me give you some more explanation .

If you look at Ron DeSantis or Greg Abbott or Doug Ducey , the former Republican governor of Arizona , brian Daly here in California , the sacrificial lamb Brian's a good guy runs against Gavin Newsom .

Every one of those politicians in heavily Latino states has the distinction of at least meeting Donald Trump , but in many cases dramatically exceeding Donald Trump with Hispanic voters . So Republicans are doing better without Donald Trump . Oh , desantis , kicked butt .

He's stalling a bigger ship that would already be there . And that's my point in California is white guys love Donald Trump . He's their white champion . He just is . I'm sorry you could throw me out the window , not invite me back , but that's the Republicans' problem . If they picked virtually any other candidate , this race would not be close .

But what it looks like is that Harris is extremely nervous about losing labor support and so , all of a sudden , the discussion within the last couple days has been broadening the economic opportunity for middle-class people .

I mean , now the media is a bunch of imbeciles or or political toadies , so you know I wouldn't take them too seriously . But but the but the fact that if the Democrats ran on the flip side of what you just said , if the Democrats ran a politician who had a clear working class , middle class message , they would destroy Donald Trump .

This shouldn't even be close against a clown like this .

One of the great ironies about Kamala Harris is her entire career trajectory was assisted in large part because she is a black woman from San Francisco . I mean , joe Biden said I'm going to pick a black woman for vice president . That winnings the field , right , I mean , and you know , and that's the Democrats , I think , have been rightfully criticized for that .

But what's fascinating to me is , on the immigration debate specifically , harris has completely pivoted away and broken this racial , ethnic headlock . The Democrats put themselves in on equating immigration as a racial issue for Latinos . It never has been ever , and it's certainly not now and becoming less so .

And they finally realized it when they're looking at Biden's numbers going . Oh my God , like Latinos are pro border security . Forty two percent of Latinos support mass deportation .

Sixty nine percent of Latinos supported the asylum executive order that Joe Biden signed like overwhelming numbers , because most of the growth is third and now a discernible fourth generation consultants and politicians , latino politicians specifically , who believed erroneously that that's the motivating issue and what they're realizing just now .

In the past few months you guys have been talking about it a while that that's not going to work anymore and they're going to have to have an economic agenda that's aspirational .

That doesn't clean my streets , it doesn't get graffitis off the wall , it doesn't make you know policemen want to work in our communities and keep kids safe or make our schools better , and that's what we're watching work in our communities and keep kids safe or make our schools better and that's what we're watching .

Whatever the big money Democrat wants , they'll go after it and be like oh yeah , we're environmental , oh yeah , we're to all the , the white progressive that has money , that's got the political money to give . That's where they have gone . What they're realizing now is that they are the fulcrum of power .

Realizing now is that they are the fulcrum of power , and once they begin to identify and define their own agenda as a civil rights issue , as a struggle , then both parties , I think , are going to start crashing in towards them , and that's my advice to them is quit thinking . The parties are going to figure this out . They're not .

The Republican Party is never going to figure out that . It needs to quit being , you know , like a bunch of cavemen . They're not . It's 30 years . They've gotten worse , they're going to keep getting worse , and they're going to keep marginalizing themselves . The ascendant voices , though , are going to be those Latino moderates and Latinos .

By the way , latino voters are the moderates in both parties . Think about that , and the reason why is because they're talking about blue collar economic jobs . They're not getting into the gun control and abortion in the ninth month in the his , her , she and whatever Like those . Those are not their issues , those are unrelatable .

Now the numbers are so big they can't deny it and you know , donald Trump , I believe , will increase his share of Latinos again . How much I don't know . But another two , three-point pop is very doable and if that happens , regardless of whether he wins or loses , you're going to see .

I think both parties change dramatically in their focus and start getting back into trying to get to a middle-class issue . And California , I think , is a unique opportunity because the vacuum is enormous there in this state .