¶ Introduction to Non-aligned Nations
The Feudal Future Podcast .
Hello and welcome to another episode of the Feudal Future Podcast . I'm Marshall Toplansky , I'm Joel Kotkin , and today we're going to be talking about non-aligned nations and what their role in the world power structure is going to be as we move forward . And to help us do that , we have four fascinating guests .
Right here with us in the studio is PK Shukla , who is the Shah family endowed chair and professor of entrepreneurship and innovation at Chapman University . Pk , welcome , thank you .
And with us , through the magic of Zoom , are Dr Franz Konyave , who is a geopolitical and economics analyst in South Africa , a distinguished student of our Masters of Experimental Economics program , which is rated number one in the world in experimental economics . And from Lima , peru , dr Oscar Sumar , who is provost of the Scientific University of Peru .
Gentlemen , welcome , thank you , joel . Do you want to kick us off ?
Yeah , so one of the things is that when you read the newspapers here , particularly in the United States , you would think that the world is basically a contest between the United States world .
But demographically , in terms of resources , in terms of labor force , that's where the future of the world is going to come from , and so the question I maybe will start with is who's winning the battle in the developing world ? Many people think it's really China and to some extent Russia , not the United world .
Many people think it's really China and to some extent Russia , not the United States . So , franz , do you want to start ?
Yeah , sure . Well , it depends , of course , where in the developing world you choose to look . One way we start addressing that question sometimes is to say that 30 years ago you sort of come out of a unipolar global environment and you accelerate very quickly into a multipolar environment .
And that's a multipolar environment where , in the latter years of it , environment where in the latter years of it , western liberal democracies have become shy in some respects to advocate very firmly for the ideas and values upon which their societies were built .
And that has certainly created opportunities , I think , for their global rivals to begin to exert influence . And my knowledge and understanding is perhaps best around Southern Africa and South Africa . And I can tell you that whilst the opinion in South Africa leans , public opinion leans generally pro-Western .
The extent to which that is true has been eroded and non-Western players , russia and China in the main , have done extremely well on a diplomatic front to begin to gain ground . And the implications of that and I'll interview on that are immense . You know , south Africa is one thing .
Africa now has more cities of a million inhabitants than Europe and America combined .
Five of the world's 10 fastest growing economies are are in Africa and the demographics and population numbers you've spoken about the number of Africans living in cities who can spend a few dollars a day and you project that into the future is perhaps the world's last truly untapped consumer market . It's a solution to the global protein crisis .
It's 50 votes on any global for us , such as the UN General Assembly . So who's winning and losing these battles in this multipolar environment in the fullness of time , I think is something that's going to matter a great deal .
I'd like to see and I'll ask are we Americans , I have to say , or have always looked at Latin America as kind of our hinterland , if you will , and yet , from what I'm understanding , china in particular , and even Iran , have been making significant inroads into Latin America . Oscar , is that something that's a reality , and in what direction is it going ?
and what direction this is going . Yes , thank you . Actually , there are some data that backs that up . For example , china has become the most important commercial partner for Latin America . So most countries in Latin America had the US the first commercial partner , but now China is having much more influence in our country than the US in that matter .
Also , they build infrastructure , something that the US does not . For example , they recently finished the Shanghai port in the north of Lima , which is going to become the most important port in the region , and the US made a claim . But even just in Twitter , they put we are worried about these developments in Peru , but nothing more than that .
So I think for the importance of the event of having the report that is going to become the most important in commercial terms , but also probably military , because we know China doesn't move only in commercial terms . They combine commercial and political or military influence .
But the US just made a tweet , so I think it's that graphics , or or it makes a good picture of the importance they are both giving . One of them is making a billion dollar and billions dollars um bet in in region and the other is tweeting .
So for most people in Peru , the US doesn't realize the importance of this , and China is making a lot of efforts , so I think that shows .
So I think that shows PK Marshall mentioned that President Trump on his insult tour is now targeted India . What's the situation in India ? I mean we have obviously many very close ties to India . Many Indians like you live in the United States . How does it look from the Indian ?
perspective , right ? So yeah , I'm glad you asked that question . So we're talking about demographic , geopolitical , economic , and when you're looking at the world , you have to look beyond just the United States and China . You have to also consider India . Now there are a couple of reasons . Let me just give some support .
One is clearly demographics India , the largest population in the world that by itself is significant A large middle class that's increasing in per capita income . But also , when you look at the demographic breakdown , india has 40% of their population under 25 .
Now , when the United States is getting an aging population , japan is getting an aging population , China is getting an aging population , india is poised to provide sort of like the labor resources for the world for the next 20 , 30 , 40 years , given their young demographics . Now also , I think we see economically the importance of India .
I was looking at a chart In 1997 , india was ranked 16th in nominal GDP in the world and then , since Narendra Modi took over in 2014 , he's serving now his third five-year term .
But just since 2014 , india went from being ranked 10th and it passed Italy , brazil , russia , passed France , united Kingdom In 2025 , this year , india passed Japan to now become the fourth largest economy in the world and passed California Right . And California could be a separate country by itself .
So , given our economic input , but the forecasts are by 2030 , india is going to pass Germany to become number three and some economists forecast by 2050 , india is going to pass the United States and be the second largest economy . So when you're talking about developing
¶ China's Influence in Africa
and geopolitical influence , you can't ignore India . One final thing I'd like to add is about the military and non-aligned thing I'd like to add is about the military and non-aligned .
So India is in a strange position where the US is a leading trade partner with India , but then also India has major oil imports from Iraq and Russia , which has caused some of the recent friction with tariffs and what the sanctions might be if you were dealing with Russia .
But I think , from a military perspective , I did an interview with a prior US ambassador to India , kenneth Justers , and what he mentioned was that India plays a real important geographic military role in that they're now doing the Quad , and the Quad is military exercises and planning jointly between the United States , india , australia and Japan .
And if the US is worried from a military perspective , not economic , about Russia , china , possible invasion of Taiwan , india , I think , is playing a critical role in how US military , may you know , deal with any conflict in the region .
I just want to before we want to turn it over to Marshall . But one of the big aspects is a political media side , and Becky just published a paper which we published here at Chapman , about who's sort of winning the information wars .
Because right now , if you have young people , they're going to be affected by the internet , they're going to be affected by the internet , they're going to be affected by social media . Becky , can you just summarize what you think , what you and Jamila found in looking at what's happening in Africa on the media side ?
Yeah , of course , Deidre . One of the points here that I echo that's been touched as particularly , also touching on the media is the demographics of Africa . You can think about it as sort of like a market share who's having much of influence into this region ?
If you look at it , it's China and that of Russia , and you can see this also in the media demographics If you look at , for example , social media , in which how young individuals here in the region consume the media through that likes of TikTok as well as that of national television .
But if you were to look at the stock of Africa , it's sort of market value and , depending on its demographics one of the things that was also mentioned in that report the draw was that Africa has an extremely young age demographic .
In fact the median age here yeah , exactly .
In fact , the median age here is about 19 years of age . In Europe it's about 40 . In America it's about 35 , above that of 35 . In fact , when we also did another study there , joel , there in California , looking at the getaway cities , I was looking at the declining population trends and I thought I was doing something wrong .
I was looking at the declining population trends and I thought I was doing something wrong . I was like this is quite odd because it's an oddity . Here you don't see a decline in population , as the birth rates are far higher than that of the people that are dying out in the population .
If you were to log that into a chart over the past 10 years , you'd see a line chart going up as if it has no ceiling , and stagnating and declining , the likes of what you see in Europe and that of what you see in America .
And what that essentially means is that in about 25 years from now , a quarter of global population will come from Africa , and a lot of the powers that see that , particularly that of Russia and China , do see that and are taking quite a lot of advantage in that through the penetration of media into Africa , through television , through that of Russia and China do
see that and are taking quite a lot of advantage in that through the penetration of media into Africa through television , through that of social media , in which young-aged Africans access the information , but , as well as that , through trade . As it stands right now , china has a share of about 70 ports spread across 32 African countries .
At this present moment , it invests quantums of fixed investment into Africa compared to that of America , and out of that it gains its capability and ability to shape the minds of young Africans as well as their values .
At this present moment , there is quite a strong move to that , to be in favor of the Western world , given the successes that we see , particularly in that of America . However , as Francis mentioned earlier on , is that American diplomats are quite shy to actually mention what has been the pillars of their successes , and other
¶ Latin America's Shifting Partnerships
countries such as China and Russia are less so , and that has actually won them quite a lot of diplomatic capital into Africa , as well as that of investment into Africa . You can see this in media consumption . You can see this in investment , as well as that of investment into Africa . You can see this in media consumption .
You can see this in investment as well as port infrastructure , and that's what we're currently seeing at this moment .
So this is interesting because we're seeing the demographic shifts , we're seeing economic shifts , we're seeing political shifts happening , military shifts happening . Some observers are calling this the destruction of the old world order .
Basically the post-World War II idea that the US would be the predominant superpower , that there would be guarantees from the US Navy of free trade . All of that is starting to come apart and what it's being replaced by is a system of regional alliances , as opposed to global order , and I'm wondering what you guys think of that .
And if we are moving toward regional players , who will be the regional dominant player in South America , in South Asia and in South Africa or Africa in general ? Oscar , where do we start with you ?
Oscar , where do we start with you ? Yeah , thank you . I think in Latin America we have very clear strong players like Brazil and Mexico . They are the ones who make the most weight in the region . I don't see too much alliance between South American countries because , for example , venezuela now is apart because it's a dictatorship . It has different values .
Colombia has a very left-leaning president now . He was in the rear in his youth . Chile also has a leftist president . Bolivia is a narco state . So we don't have too many partners to align with in Latin America , regrettably . So we have to resort a lot in the possibility of having partners , for example , in the US or Europe or China .
I mean commercial partners . We can rely a lot in our regional partners , I believe .
Franz , what about Africa ?
I'll give you an unusual answer . Just to the north of South Africa , on Africa's west coast , is a small country , quite large in size , small , 3 million people , called Namibia , and we're increasingly inclined , if we sit in front of a client , to say take a very close look at what's happening there . It's flat . Firstly , the climate's great .
The Press Freedom Index ranking for what these things are worth rivals any Western country . It's Terror Threat Index score , because Africa's become a kind of Southern Africa's sort of a hotbed of jihadist expansion after the displacement of ISIS out of the Middle East , is zero . The domestic politics has elections , the governments are hit and miss , but basically fine .
It's from a logistics perspective certainly a serious option to do data and road and rail into Africa at a much less complicated than its bigger northern neighbor , angola . And off the coast , quite far off the coast , is arguably now what may prove to be the biggest offshore oil find in history off the Namibian coastline .
Wow , now , that's important because it's always been dwarfed by South Africa and Namibia was Southwest Africa , which was a South African protectorate , became independent through the sort of Bush war era in Southern Africa and South Africa , which was always the default answer as a sort of pivot point , certainly for Western democracies in Africa .
George Bush still called South Africa the US's point country on Africa has a lot of potential , can turn around , but its growth rate is pinned to sub-1% , it ran out of electricity , its politics is volatile , its unemployment rate is north of 30% and it's certainly at risk of surrendering its position .
As I mentioned earlier , chinese and Russian diplomats , who are very expert at what they do it's just a question of relative professionalism are winning ground , particularly in South Africa ,
¶ India's Rising Global Position
and the Southern African coastline matters a lot . It's one of the . In a multipolar world you want geostrategic control . You've got to control choke points . The Southern Sea route around South Africa is one of the world's oldest choke points . The Houthis firing missiles into the Red Sea has diverted a fast share of global shipping around that route .
Now Namibia has a deep water port which is almost as effective at commanding the sea route as the historic South African naval base at Simons Town . So some of your listeners might have to go and Google it to see where it is . But a tip , as it were , is that potentially one of the most influential and important countries in Africa .
It's a little place called Namibia that very few people have ever heard of and if it's government that's very interesting .
Now will there be in your mind if you look at all the advantages that Namibia offers . Will there be a regional alliance between , let's say , namibia , republic of South Africa , maybe Zimbabwe ? What other countries might possibly get together or have the magnetism to get together to create a regional alliance ?
I think we're very far from that . I think it's far more likely that , on a bilateral level , southern African countries strike alliances with Russia , china , india which is so very important , as your guest has said and or the US . More than that , they might find common ground with each other . I mean , zimbabwe is a hellhole .
It's not getting out of that anytime soon . South Africa is in some serious trouble . Botswana is tied to diamonds . The diamond market , in our view , is crashing and don't think , because these countries are grouped together in some corner of the world , that they get on with each other .
They're sometimes far more likely to get on with countries on other continents than they might get on with their regional neighbors .
This sounds a little bit like what Oscar was saying with Latin America . Let's look at India , because we've got strategically a very , somewhat different situation right between India , pakistan , the impact on Bangladesh , on potentially Myanmar on that side , and then , you know , moving toward Iran and Afghanistan on the other side .
What do you think the role of India will be as the coalescer of a regional alliance ?
I tend to agree with the other guests that even though you're geographically next to your neighbor , that doesn't mean that you like your neighbor or you're going to get along with your neighbor .
But we've seen that the European Union strong regional cohesive group and some differences over time we saw with Canada the US cohesive group and you know some differences over time . We saw with Canada , the US and Mexico originally NAFTA , and in Southeast Asia they've had a group called ASEAN for 30 , 40 years , association of Southeast Asian Nations .
The problem is , I think India's view is that that is not really helping them or the individual members . So I think India is saying let's do bilateral trade with the US , bilateral trade with Russia , with China . But they're also looking at a role differently where they recently had a summit this year , the BRICS .
So originally it was Brazil , russia , india , china , but I think they've added two more nations recently . I forgot the exact two names .
I think South Africa is part of that .
now is it , I think that's the way , as well as like . The inclusion was that Argentina rejected the invite , but then other inclusion was that of Iran , that of about two years ago .
Right , so thanks for clarifying . So I think what happens is that India's view is that we're not playing in a regional market , we're playing on a global field . So let's align .
If we're going to do alliances , let's do it with BRICS and these additional countries added in everybody the notion of a relatively splintered world that is mostly dominated by the national interest of the individual players .
And if you're a strong player like India , your national interest is to make a bigger splash on the global marketplace , but still it's from an India perspective , not from a regional perspective . So are there any players out there that can force the game toward more of a regional policy ? Like could China say to Peru , for instance hey , you know what ?
Here's that billion dollars for the port , but if you don't get your act together and work together with your neighbors and get you all together in a row , forget about the money . Are there people like that who can exert influence to be able to force a regional solution ?
Well , in some sense probably . For example , talking a very particular point of the port of Shanghai , china is making an agreement with Brazil to build a road towards Peru and we heard that by the news . We heard Brazil and China are making an agreement by themselves that impacts in Peru .
So all the news were talking about our sovereignty , like we are not part of that conversation , but they are talking about making some infrastructure in Peru . So in some sense they are forcing us to act , to start a conversation with Brazil , for example , in this case . So they have a lot of weight .
So they can force the conversations to happen .
Yes , and a national conversation as well , because we were talking about so . We will have to allow Brazil to construct .
In Peru we already have a road to the inter-oceanic road towards Brazil , which was a corruption scandal , and now we have another one , so they have that kind of weight and that's part of the reason I am preoccupied about the influence of China in Peru and Latin America in general .
Well , as you pointed out earlier , pk , good fences make good neighbors . You don't necessarily like the person that you're next to . China and India have historically had a contentious relationship , especially in the Tibet area . What about that interplay between China and India ? How do you see that working itself out , going forward ?
No , I think you know . I just saw a graph and China is a leading trade partner in terms of trade deficit with India . So the US is a leading trade partner , but it's a little bit more balanced China . When you look at the trade gap with India , then China has the largest trade gap , but again it's because they have the lower wages in manufacturing .
Now our Prime Minister , narendra Modi , he started a campaign called Make in India and he's trying to basically get some of these corporations like Apple saying you know , why are you producing in China ? If there are political tensions , terror of uncertainty ? Why not shift some of the manufacturing base to India ?
Similar with the automobile factories they're trying to push Well and he's been successful when it comes to Apple right . I just read an article the other day that actually more iPhones are being made in India than China .
Right , and originally they were talking about let's shift from China to Vietnam . But India has the labor and you know the resources and the technology . So I think you know
¶ Media Wars and Demographics
one of the views is that India is the largest democracy in the world in terms of population and you have a prime minister who's been reelected for the third five year term .
So when you have continuity with Narendra Modi as prime minister and you have China also believing in continuity , different political system with their head of government , I think it makes it easier to trade with another nation , even if it's your geographic partner . They might be saying well , we're not liking the terms of negotiation , let's wait two years .
There's going to be some change in your election , maybe a change in precedent or change in Congress , and then we'll renegotiate , whereas I think India is in a good position where they've been dealing with China , even though they've had some you know differences of opinion , but they are working together . Similarly , india is doing a lot with Japan .
So I just want to ask is this issue of oscillation of politics , and one of the oddities of American politics is obviously that we used to have two parties who had essentially the same approach on the global level . Now , if AOC becomes president , it will be very different than Donald Trump . Let's put it that way what about in South America ?
Are things oscillating the same way ? And also in Africa , because you've had the same party in power for a long time .
So , oscar , I don't know if I understood the question , but you mean we have two different approaches to foreign policy ?
Right , there isn't the consistency that Pique mentioned in India and obviously in China .
No , I don't think so . There is a lot of difference .
The left in Peru is usually more welcome , for example , of foreign immigration from Venezuela , and the right is more cautious , like , probably , uh , similarly to the US , like we , we have a more open approach to immigration and our closest now people is realizing the , the dangers of the Venezuelan immigration in Peru , which is very similar to the US .
At first we were talking about we will have more labor in Peru People , venezuelan people , most of them are qualified to work in Peru , but then we have a lot of crime , the trend that agua , which is a problem also in the US , is a problem in Peru as well .
So now , now I think there is a more common ground between the left and the right in Peru to see the immigration , for example , as a danger . But of course , in the policy about the how open the US should be towards Latin Americans , we all agree that probably the US should be more open .
But also some people have shared the opinion that you should encourage legal immigration , not illegal immigration , immigration , not illegal immigration . So , but of course , from our perspective , the US should be welcoming of legal immigrants and probably the demographic future of the US has to do a lot with Latin America and not our continent .
Well , at least as much as Latin America .
And so just on this , Franz or Becky , South Africa has had one party rule for a long time . Is that going to change ? Is the political equation in South Africa going to become more volatile ?
Yeah , yeah , look , it's always pretty volatile , but it's totally free and open society . It's really a sort of democratic place , but volatile , yeah , I mean . 30 years ago South Africa became a democracy .
It's had the same party in command of that until last year in May , when the African National Congress , which had been the party of Nelson Mandela , lost an election , lost its national majority , rather still had the plurality , and it's now in a unity government with another party by the name of Democratic Alliance .
Democratic Alliance is essentially Western-oriented , the ANC is essentially China-Russia-I Iran oriented , and this is a flashpoint within that government . How the political dial here turns into future elections the ANC is getting weaker , the DA type parties are getting stronger will probably be very important in determining how South Africa allies itself .
We look a lot to India . It's interesting to have someone on that's got that expertise and think that the manner in which India has been able to strike , as far as we see it , a foreign policy that's non-aligned in a real sense is perhaps something that the South Africans would like to look to aspire to in the future .
It's not really a balance they've gotten right to date .
If I may add , there Go ahead , Becky , sorry .
Yeah , if I may add there , just to the last point that francis made the non-alignment he made it also just touching on the theme that he made there is that your choke points in a multipolar world which is basically global power such as united states , russia and china , contenting for power across africa , other regions are your choke points the Suez Canal , its
monthly vessels if you were to compare that of October 2023 , it was about 2,500 monthly vessels that were passing through that route . As global shipping companies and global shipping routes were rerouted , that volume has declined to about 1,000 monthly vessels . Currently .
The difference of that has actually been picked up with the route that's passing , that of South Africa , where it's almost that of three times higher than that of the Suez Canal . The definition we think of the successes of these nations goes to the point that France has made . There is that of your non-alignments . But as well as actually understanding
¶ Regional Alliances vs. Global Order
how much more importance you have in a multipolar world where , if you take decisions that do not firmly stand against one party or another , I mean you can have a sovereign nation with your own sovereign policies , the likes that you determine to wish , the likes that you determine to govern yourselves and accept those consequences should be that of the political parties
that govern those respective nations .
But the definition , or , if you want to measure that of the success of a nation , we believe are countries that don't take strict lines , and the example of which he has brought is that of India , for example , that attracts investment and conversations from other nations , such as that of Russia , such as that of the United States , and I see that there's quite
conversations happening around that route . But , going forward , I think leaders that will become quite successful in this world that we're currently in are those that don't take hard lines and actually see the significance of the geo-strategic alignments .
Well , on that point , I'd love your opinion on how the current tariff policy of the US is impacting the future relationships for each of these different areas .
I think that's really important and just maybe a good thing to sort of end with , because we Americans could use a little education . What should the US do ? Are the tariffs a disaster ? What advice would you give to the United States so that we become more engaged in the part of the world that's growing ?
So maybe we'll just ask everyone for their opinion on that PK .
You want to start us off .
Yeah , so I teach a class in supply chain management . So if the goal of increasing tariffs on imports into the US is reopen the factories that shut down 40 , 50 years ago , that's not going to happen .
If the goal is to increase employment and manufacturing in the United States , you know that might happen slowly , but there's still a problem and this is what one of our donors to Chapman University recognized .
The high schools and community colleges are going to get the assembly factory floor workers , so the CNC operators , the machinists , but someone needs to be attracted to manage them as supervisors , corporate offices . So Chapman University .
We got a gift from a donor which was basically encourage students to consider a career path in what the donor calls low-tech industries manufacturing , supply chain management , logistics , warehouses .
So if the tariffs succeed in bringing some of the jobs back , we're still going to have a skills gap and a workforce development problem because you'll have factory floor workers but you don't have the managers and the offices to supervise them . So I think doing a drastic change overnight or over 60 , 90 days is a little bit too much change too quickly .
If it was done phased in over two , three , four years , I think it would be much more effective .
But looking at it the other way , let's say you're India and you just got a nasty gram from the Trump administration that you're going to have a 50% tariff if you keep buying Russian oil . How does that impact the relationship ?
And I think you know it's sort of like you say , quiet diplomacy . So what's reported in the media is you know what the politicians want as their soundbites , but what goes on behind the scene is probably a little bit different . So I'm optimistic that you know we'll see a good resolution between India and the United States on any tariff disagreements .
And what are you thinking in terms of the impact of these tariffs on the relationships with Africa and in Latin America ?
So , Oscar , you want to start with .
Latin America . What should ?
the US be doing .
I really don't know . I studied in the US , I have a lot of feelings for the US , so my position is biased , probably , but I think it's better for the US to defend their interests as well .
I think we have a term I don't know if you use it in the US , but dumb democracy that you let totalitarian people participate in politics , you are open and democratic , but then they alter the rules at the end .
And I think there's something similar in economic terms that the US is playing a lot of free market , a lot of openness , in most cases at least , but most people , most countries I mean , don't China , don't play by the rules , for example . So I think it's good for the US to defend itself , but I am not sure if the way Trump is doing it is the best way .
Probably a lot of details and we have to check the consequences in a few years probably . But I think as a principle , it's a good thing that the US is responding and acting .
I mean , like nobody in the world is evil , like ingenuity I don't remember the term in English but they have to defend themselves of people who are acting with a purpose which is not only economic but also geopolitical and military , but in the case of South America , of course , it's troublesome for all of us . I think the US should divide .
Some countries are acting good and others not . Countries that are open open like Peru or Chile . They probably will have a different treatment than countries that are playing also putting tariffs towards the US . The US has the right to respond to them , I think .
But for countries that are mostly doing good to the US and not putting tariffs on you , you should not retaliate with more tariffs .
I believe . So you have to be selective in how you do this policy , as opposed to everybody .
Probably it's too broad as a policy to say we are going to put tariffs on everyone . To say we are going to put tariffs on everyone , she probably should be doing that selectively , but I think in general it's a good thing that the US is not thinking only in economic terms but also defending national interest .
And what's the view from Africa about this ?
I'm with Oscar here in many respects . If the broader not just the US , but the broader Western liberal order wishes to regain the ground it's lost , it needs leverage . Politics is about power and about forcing balances of power .
Have no doubt that if you are an African emerging market and act in a manner that is at odds with China's strategic interests , there are very severe consequences for that broadly , and diplomats certainly sort of fell for this end of history , delusion that the liberal order had won and that the last great threat to it had dissipated and that therefore the need for
hard power politics was no longer there and we could just be nice to each other .
¶ Tariffs and US Foreign Policy
And I think that's proved to be a fatal miscalculation . Now , how do Western countries exert power , influence and force around the world ? I mean one means as being these sort of forever wars , these deaths of these thousands and thousands of young people on both sides . I think it's very welcome , just if you think from a western liberal perspective .
I think it's very welcome that there is a move to reasserting interests and influence , and I think tariffs are a very interesting way of doing it and , I think , certainly a much better way than putting boots on the ground of large numbers of young people . Now the argument is made on the contrary .
Well , you're just going to force sort of African countries deeper into the orbit of Russia and China and Iran , to which the informed Western retort is that was a process already so deeply entrained that this might be one of the few means left to reverse course .
And the last word , becky is our Chapman student . What's your take on this ?
Actually , my take on this is much of what Francis just stated .
At the moment is that what we've seen here in South Africa , if you look at previous administrations , particularly in America , has been that of appeasement of South Africa's foreign policy , which , over the past decade plus , has moved away from aligning itself with the Western world and it chose to align itself with other actors .
But particularly that what's quite interesting is that its foreign policy position , which we've seen through the data time and time again , as we also do polling , has been a mismatch with what South Africans currently want . If you were to ask South Africans where would they like to send their kids for education and economic opportunity ?
Between that of China , russia and the United States , it's overwhelmingly that of the United States . However , on the foreign policy position , is that the government chooses to align itself with actors that actually does not gain that of strategic advantage for South Africa and that of what the United States sees as a national security threat .
And the response of that which we think , if you look at it , has been that of the right approach has been to hit the country with hard pressure to move away from that .
A lot of the analysis locally has that this will cause disastrous effects , economic effects for South Africa , and you might also see this coming along the lines of reporting there in California .
However , what we've seen in our numbers is that the effect of these tariffs would actually not be that of triggering a systemic risk into the country , where it shifts South Africa from being a middle-income class society into that of a lower-income class society , because of the fact that over the past 17 years , the policies , particularly in this country , has been
that of a tariff on its investment levels as well as that of its economic trajectory , is that our policies have actually detracted from what is normal with other emerging markets .
And in order for us to pivot , to move along the trajectory that we think we should be going , be that from a domestic policy , be that from a foreign policy position , be that also recognizing the importance of shipping lanes , the importance of demographics , is forcing , or sort of having that debate , to move away from positions that are losing positions , particularly
from a South African perspective .
Well , gentlemen , this has been an absolutely fascinating conversation . I wish we had more time for… . And a lot of things we would have never thought of , right more time for and a lot of things we would have never thought of , right ?
It's just always wonderful to get out of your own perspective and live in the shoes of other people , even if it's only momentarily in a podcast . So thank you very much for being part of the Feudal Future podcast , and we hope we can get the band back together again soon and talk about developments as the world changes .
Thank you , thank you , thank you , thank you .