¶ Setting The Stage: Newsom’s Rise
The Feudal Future Podcast.
Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Feudal Future Podcast. I'm Marshall Taplansky. I'm Joel Cotkin. And today we are going to have a what I think is going to turn to be a rousing session with David Gershwin, who is a public affairs consultant and works a lot with Democratic Party candidates in California, and Sean Steele, who is the GOP committeeman for California. And today we are going to be talking about Governor Newsom and who will replace him. Joel, you want to start us off?
And of course, uh Governor Newsom is as likely as anyone to become President Newsome. You know, he's got a very good chance. Um has the has the media um underestimated um Newsome? You know, you follow how politicians operate. And we had a conversation the other day where you made the point that this guy is not an ideologue, and he's um and you say pragmatic, others might say opportunistic. But what's your assessment of his possibility as becoming president?
¶ Is Newsom The Democratic Front-Runner?
Right. I mean, we still have a lot more to write in terms of uh presidential history moving forward. You've got folks like Josh Shapiro, you've got folks like J.B. Pritzker, you got uh Governor Whitmer, but nonetheless, he is certainly in a very, very strong position. He's right now in the futures markets, he is the most popular candidate for presumed Democratic nominee for president. He far exceeds uh the numbers of Kamala Harris.
Um, you know, you're coming from the biggest state in the union, he has a very strong track record of fighting Trump, which is mobilizing Democratic voters. So I think he is in the poll position right now, but recognizing that a lot could change in two years.
Well, and Sean, what's your take on all of this? I I I I almost hate to admit it, but I agree with you. I mean, Newsom was in the toilet just six months ago. I mean, he was he was, you know, you you you you have this problem with what's wrong with California, everything.
You know, from from from the fires not rebuilding, from housing, from employment opportunities for young people, for poor education, for urban violence, uh, uh, you know, transgender and sports ruining girls' sports, I mean, everything, all the 80-20 issues he's upside down on. But uh, this is a Democrat state, has been for a long time.
And even though in the last year, and you might correct me on this, David, I'm sure you and I'd appreciate it, but the Republican Party's actually grown in 100,000 registrations. The Democrats got 15,000. So there's a slight little mark of time. First time I've ever seen numbers like that. But it still is 5.8 million Republicans, it still is 10.5 million Democrats. So there's a lot more of them.
By the way, where do you see those?
Uh fascinated with the Secretary of State just released it about three weeks ago.
Now, where do you see that those changes happening geographically within the state? Across the board.
It's not like one little tiny, tiny community just across the board. A lot of Latino
¶ GOP View: California’s Problems And Politics
areas, too. But that's right. But I want to focus on this. Newsom is really smart, and uh he's got the best hair of any candidate we've seen since Bill Clinton. So jealous. So it's something that is uh and and so he, you know, he's he he you know, he's rock bottom, nothing's going well in California, but anti-Trump is a big sales pitch. And uh he was smart. He, you know, he's the guy that interviewed Charlie Kirk, and he agreed that transgenders and sports made no sense to him at all.
He I don't know what he'll say tomorrow. So when you say he has an opportunity, uh, certainly he's an opportunist. He certainly is pragmatic, uh, he certainly enjoys good food. We know we know that about him. He's an he's he's an interesting character, but he's decided on a very smart level. And I think in some ways, Democrats are genetically superior when it comes to politics in California. And he could he could just see this in front of him.
You get enough Democrats pissed off and angry about uh uh uh about uh Trump. Uh it's gonna work. Uh but you needed money, he got the money. Uh now it's $120 million, and poor Republicans, maybe $50, soaking rats, or you know, soaking so he's got the war chest. Yeah, but and he may not even have to spend it all, just keep it for the presidential. So right now he's the hero among the Democrats across the world.
¶ Work Ethic, Dyslexia, And Media Strategy
Right.
And I think one of the things about Newsom, uh, along with being incredibly bright, he is one of the hardest working elected officials I have ever witnessed. Um, there's someone that I know who worked with him on some of his earlier campaigns and when he was lieutenant governor and was sitting in his office and didn't know that he was in his private office. And he asked, Well, when is when is uh Gavin supposed to get here? And they said, Oh, well, he's behind closed doors.
And as he's spoken about many times, he is dyslexic. So he works that much harder to prepare for every single public speech, be it a state-of-the-state speech, be it a stump speech, be it an interview. He outworks anyone. And I've having worked for politicians before, the one thing that they don't like to do often is practice and prepare, be it a debate or uh or a speech before a rotary club. Um, he is the antithesis of that. He will outwork any other Democratic candidate I've seen.
¶ Prop 50, Fundraising, And Momentum
Well, in addition to his work ethic, it seems as though he's getting a little bit of uh additional momentum from this uh uh campaign about uh Proposition 50 to change the uh the redistricting. So is that working for him? How does impact him? Absolutely. How does it impact the opposition to him?
He gets to raise money. He gets to raise money for that campaign, just like the with the recall, like bring it on. There's nothing that he likes more than another excuse to get out there, another excuse to be on the air, another excuse to run ads and become the focal point for California Democrats.
And and it was a good strategy because they knew from day one it would work. There wasn't like they were kind of guessing and hoping it would work. They understand uh that that that that the far that the left is in angst, they're angry, they're they're powerless, they see uh Trump does something. He might even make a mistake two days ago, but then suddenly there's peace in the Middle East. And and and uh well, why why is Trump doing this?
And suddenly it's literally almost every 24-hour cycle, Trump has changed something significant in the world. And they've they're not used to that. And they're not, and in fact, nobody, and you know, if you're a leftist and you and you're saying that my God, this stuff and it might be working, and maybe the economy's good and things are not going to hell, and all the predictions made are showing that that these are upstats.
And Trump is very much of a pragmatist in himself, in a sense that he's an 80-20 kind of guy. He's not gonna take it on pop, he doesn't like losers and he doesn't like unpopular causes. And so it seems to be working. And if I was a leftist, I'd be out of my mind. Well, frankly, it's kind of like the way Republicans were in the Biden, you're just out of your mind. What do you do?
And so this there's an angst that's rising up that's changing and challenging in a significant way their worldview of how life should be. So suddenly Jew haters like uh AOC, Mandavi, and others
¶ The Anti‑Trump Strategy And Party Tensions
are becoming increasingly more powerful in the Democrat Party. Newsom's job is to kind of nuance and balance that, no, no, I really don't hate Jews like a lot of them. A Middle East, I can work it out, but he's got to be us. But to balance that out so that the far left, which is dominating big precincts in the Democrat Party, is to try to be the anti-Trump.
And as long as he's the anti-Trump and against troops in cities, uh and uh, you know, what's going on with ICE, uh, he may be able to prevail and sort of cut an intellectual, emotional connection with the far left and his party. That's his biggest problem.
If that's the litmus test for the Democratic Party to be the anti-Trump and to be against troops in cities, look what's going to happen in 2026. But that's not enough. Things will be boding well for Democrats.
That's not enough. I I don't like troops in cities, but federal prof Washington, D.C. is a big success. No question about it. People don't like it. They just want to live in a dangerous urban environment and get carjacked in the middle of the day. So D.C.'s a success. Memphis, Tennessee is weird. I wouldn't send troops. I don't like so. Why do you send federal troops anywhere? It's hugely popular in a Democrat area because it's safe in Memphis.
Now, when you have a political organized opposition like cities that are badly run, San Francisco, what decent person would spend the night in San Francisco? Chicago, are you kidding me?
No, I've I've been there recently. It is not all that it's not that it's all that it's cracked up to be, and it's getting better. Absolutely. Chicago is a different story.
Right.
Now, those are dangerous, nasty places. And so uh you're on your own.
It's dangerous to you if you spill cappuccino on yourself on Market Street. That's all. That's dangerous you're going to experience this here for some seconds.
Yes, yes, it's fine. It does bring up an interesting Did you wear boots? I did not. Oh, well, you can't even go there. The the uh it does bring up an interesting question, though, because there's there's Newsom the Californian and being viewed within the the lenses that we have on as Californians, right? And Newsom the American
¶ California Image Vs National Appeal
at writ large. Uh how do you reconcile the two of those? Um, how much of the Californian reputation is either gonna stick to him in a bad way, especially in the on your boots in San Francisco, or in uh uh how much of it will allow him to be viewed in a positive way by the larger group?
I think he is in a position to actually learn more about what people are going through in other states. I think he's gonna focus on, as any smart politician will, on what the major issues are in the battlegrounds. I think he has highly transferable skills. So I think he is in a position to get that same kind of appeal towards his base as he has done successfully, without question, in California.
So he'll find his base, whatever that is. Absolutely.
He's gonna have like I said, he's gonna have competition for sure. And uh and he may not be the nominee when all said and done.
All quite, quite, quite correct, except uh what kind of competition does he have? Pitzcare, what a mess he is. He just he every time he shows up on TV, he loses. Uh appeal, uh yeah, what are you AOC? Uh, you know, she she's you know, she's she's not smart, uh, and uh she's she's considered I strongly disagree.
But by the way, you may not like her, but she's she's we were talking about this earlier in very media savvy.
A new UGov poll came out yesterday showing that she her approval rating apparently is eight points higher than Trump's. Yeah.
Which is kind of a surprising thing. I'd like I I love polls. How often have they been wrong about Trump? I mean, yeah, yeah. If you're gonna bet on polls against Trump, you're gonna be a very poor right.
It's we've got a ways to go, right? So does does Newsom have a problem with how do you deal with the as a party has been moving to the left, if you've got Mandami as in many ways the best known Democrat in the country, if he wins mayor in New York, which he which he will, which he will. Um how does
¶ The Leftward Drift And Party Bench
how does Newsom maneuver between the far left, which is rising in this party, and what you would think would be kind of his natural constituency, which would be the more middle of the road, the you know, he's got a lot of ties with the oligarchs. Um how does he negotiate that?
Um I think the abundance, the abundance uh uh uh perspective, right? That that idea that the the uh tech people are talking about, which is that, hey, we can, especially with AI, kind of grow the pool. Right.
I think he has the uh capability to frame issues in a positive way and actually be hopeful and express to our better selves what we should be as a state, what we should be as a country. And I think that has a very broad-based appeal. I mean, I think we're so used to negative politics that actually might be a refreshing tone that he can take. And I think that will be transferable. Yeah, yeah.
But what what does he say when of course they would never have me there? But if I say, well you're talking about this great progressive model, you're in a state with the most billionaires in the world and the highest percentage of people living in poverty. I mean, I guess if if you've as long as you you're you're giving an interview on NPR and CNN, they won't ask you those questions. Is that something that he can escape from?
I believe so. I believe he can talk and speak to the fact that he's working to fix those inequities. He wants a rising tide uh to lift all boats, that he wants to see success on both sides of the aisle in terms of what no matter what your political perspective is, that he's a leader for all Californians, not just blue Californians. So I think I think he's able to navigate very well.
Yeah, the the only trouble is the facts don't bear that out. You know, he's not, you know, he he's he's underwater, and uh, and the polling showed that. But he's underwater with independence,
¶ Vision, Hope, And The Record Question
and that's the second biggest party in California. Certainly underwater was Republicans. So it's highly, he's highly polarizing. Yeah, his ratings are not great. Yeah. Now, among Democrats, he's done what he needed to do. And and and you know, they're they're climbing onto his bandwagon that he created, and and and it's and it's working beautifully, and it's gonna make him a hero across the country. But two years is a very long time. And we'll we'll see.
Uh, you know, if Trump continues being successful, if the econom there's a lot of ifs, if the economy's good, if there's more, if there's peace in Ukraine, all these ifs that are we have no control, no way of even knowing how that's gonna turn out. Uh, it may not, you know, his time may pass. Here's his other great problem, uh, and the fact that he's out of a job in 2026. So he's no longer governor. Well, so he's like an ex-governor. Well, it works sometimes.
We saw Bill Clinton out of nowhere do it, Jimmy Carter, I think he was an ex-governor, uh, Ronald Reagan. So it can work. Uh and he does have a personality that is very appealing. He's the kind of guy you like to hang out with. Uh, frankly, I find him, you know, Jerry Brown, you couldn't hang out with him because he just was anti-social and anti-peace. Yeah, I like Jerry Brown.
No, no, no. And he had one of the most insular uh government gubernatorial stabs of any California governor. Right, right.
But but you didn't want to, you know, you couldn't hang out with him because he basically didn't like humans. And I totally understand that about Jerry. You know, there's a lot of flaws that humans have. Gab won't hang out with anybody. He'll have a drag queen over here and Charlie Kirk over there, and he'll just have a party and get together. So he is appealing, but can he can he run on that? And who are the other Democrats that are emerging? We don't even know about.
Typically, that's what we see. We see some new governor, some new exciting personality that's getting things done. But I think his biggest problem, I don't know if you agree with me, I think it's the far left. And they're growing, they're angry, they're smart, they're militant. They even got a Senate candidate in the state of Maine that uh has got a Nazi uh uh Nazi tattoo on his chest. That's another thing. And they're still defending him.
I mean, you know, and and that Bernie Sanders is defending him. Yeah, well, more than Bernie, Bernie and that crowd. And what's interesting about that symbol, uh, you know, I don't know these things, but his former chief of staff just wrote a piece in the last, she resigned. And she says he knows what he was worrying for the last 20 years because he's a military historian fan. He knows it represented the SS group, particularly those in charge of the concentration camps.
I mean, how specific can you? It wasn't just ordinary SS, you know, the worst of the worst, but it was the SS group in charge of concentration camps. So that tells me a lot about the left and where it's going. And by the way, I'd like to tell you our hands are clean. We've got little, nasty, little anti-Semitic groups within the right. Yeah. I've been very concerned about. I've been resisting fighting, exposing, frankly,
¶ Fragmented Media And The Podcast Advantage
expelling. I won't tolerate it. Unfortunately, the Democrats don't have that attitude. They're afraid of it at your last Democrat convention. Jews were attacked on the floor. Yeah. They were attacked because they're Jews. That is Gavin's problem. That's just symbolic. But of all the other left-wing things, you know, we don't like police. Uh, you know, screwgirls and uh in in and and athletics, uh, crazy tax everybody out of existence. Uh it's it it's it's urban crime. What crime?
What are we talking about? Uh illegal aliens that have criminal records, why are you being so mean to them? These are these are issues that I don't see Newsom overcoming. Because for seven years he's been governor and he's been an unsuccessful governor.
Well, let me add it's funny you were talking about who on the Democrat side is gonna be facing uh him in competition. You know, he's in in the next presidential election, he's gonna be running against somebody other than Trump. Obviously, he's gonna be trying to run against the President. Don't tell that to Trump. Exactly. Right, right, right. He's got plans. Don't tell that to the Constitution. But let's say he let's say he runs against Vance, right? Which is probably the most likely scenario.
Presumptive, right? So is there a difference there in in Gavin versus versus J.D. as opposed to Gavin versus Donald?
Well, well, of course there is, but but right now his best play is to run against the guy that all the Democrats hate. Right.
And I think and I think he can say, I'm gonna clean up the mess that Trump created. I'm gonna I I don't know if he can build the East Wing again, what a travesty that is, but that's a that's for another podcast.
We we just need more more uh you know the these these weighted balls that are crushing the building and to rebuild. This is called uh he is he is the builder. Creative destruction. There you go.
There you go.
Funny. No, but do you think that um you're not gonna get a ticket to the ballroom?
I can tell you that right now, David. You're not a billionaire, so you're off the list.
I'm off the list right now immediately. Immediately.
I don't qualify.
Do you think Vance will be as good a campaigner?
That's a good question.
¶ Israel, Foreign Policy, And 2028 Calculus
I'm skeptical about Vance's ability to, he's really never had to campaign outside of his home state of Ohio. A vice presidential candidate for all intents and purposes, does not campaign. People are not voting for a vice presidential candidate. So he had a he had not a lot of tasks in that uh election other than to sit there and look obedient. And that's what he's continued to do throughout his vice presidential candidate.
He is a smart and articulate guy. I well I happen to know him reasonably well.
Um he's extremely smart, but I think you know, last time we we met, we we got into a fight because I said, J D, you know, you're you're you're running as a Trump person. I know that you're that's not who you really are. And and and you're really not there? No, no, it was in in in the hallway in the hotel in Washington. And I mean I realized he's a very he's super ambitious, that the ambition overwhelms everything else.
Whether or not, I mean, you know, frankly, I find neither neither of them would be um particularly attractive candidates. I think Rubio would be a much better.
I think Rubio is the second highest likely candidate according to the polling markets. And but but just really quick back to back to the fact of back to uh your conversation with JD. I think you see that uh for life speaking of boots, the boot licking you see from JD, I think that manifested itself no better way than in that Oval Office meeting with Zelensky. Oh, yeah. It looked so stilted and forced. It's like you are doing this for an audience of one.
¶ If Newsom Leaves: Who Governs California?
Right. And and that's I think that's all that's driving. I mean, it's it's absolutely transparent.
Well, you know, we we we know that sometimes vice president presidential candidates can have problems with just ask Kamala. Right. And and and I think that's there's an inherent handicap because basically presidential elections, and I heard this recently, so it's not my original idea, it's based on hope. Future opportunity by elections, like we're having in 26, is based on anger. And I I like I like that dichotomy.
So I think uh JD is gonna have to show some amazing transformational skills of being forward-looking than past-looking. Marco Rubio, I'm surprised, but he just he's doing, he's he's getting the good guy stuff. He's the peacemaker, he's the one that's showing up and extremely loyal, but he's not as close to the president physically as as Judy.
And he's also much better counter-programming against a Democratic candidate, you know, Hispanic from Florida, yeah, a successful Secretary of State. Yeah, you know.
You know, also this is just the two that we know about. I mean, right. It's a deep bench both ways. Well, I don't know about your side, but it's it's it's it's a deep bench with you know, senators that are emerging, some interesting governors that we haven't even seen yet. And then so that's what's
¶ The Next Governor: Padilla, Caruso, Steyer
fascinating. We like to predict the stuff, and it and a year from now we'll be scratching our heads. Why would I even think that? It was so obviously wrong.
But if it's anger, I I love your your analogy, hope versus anger. So if anger is driving or will be a central theme of the of the 2028 election.
No, no, it'd be hope in 28 presidential.
Presidential's hope. Okay. Well, to uh the where I was going with that is there is a level of sycophancy in this administration that I by the way, I think Marco Rubio does a really good job of of kind of toning it down. But like, say Pete Heggseth is an example, right? Um to what degree is that kind of um attitude or behavior pattern gonna be a factor in that next election?
I think it's gonna be enormous. I mean, when you have I mean, after that disaster uh speech at Quantico on both the president's and Hegseth's part, apparently the top military brass in this country pretty much said to themselves, we're never gonna listen to this guy with a straight face ever again. We're never gonna take him seriously. And so any hope that Hegzeth has. I think if there is a cabinet member who goes, it's Heggseth.
I think he has the uh innate ability to trip himself up in some serious ways. So I agree. The the syncopacy that we've seen in this administration is through the roof.
But if uh I want to get both. Yeah, but isn't that the problem?
Is that what you're supposed to do in presidential elections? I mean, you know, you can look at every single president we've had in the past, and if you're not complimenting the president, you're not gonna be around really long. And if you show some deviation, uh your life's anything. Well, this has been a complex. But I I want you to know right now, and I want the public to be aware of this, I have not bought
¶ Housing War: Density Vs Suburbs
a Trump watch. So there. So there you go.
And you didn't graduate from Georgecoin, though, or the the uh the Bitcoin.
I don't trust any of that crypto crap. You didn't graduate from Trump University either. Well, I think you haven't seen my degrees yet.
But if I mean what what I'm wondering about is I think you know, Sean's idea that you know hope, you know, whether it was you know Reagan, you know, who I'm unfortunately old enough to have covered and and and actually uh met uh interviewed, um he what he was brilliant at was saying this stuff is wrong, but I I can bring hope. I think Obama did that. Yes, she did. Yes, very good, very strong.
Um, so the question uh you know I have is is Newsom has not shown much on what uh uh the former President Bush used to call the vision thing. I don't I mean, you know, when he starts talking about you know using you know this uh progressive rhetoric, and then you look at what what's happened in California, you say, well, you know, it's just uh BS. But do you think that he's capable of coming up with that kind of positive message that that Sean thinks will be critical in 28?
Absolutely. No, and I I somewhat disagree. I think that when Newsom is talking about the future, he takes a very positive view and he's able to fly at 35,000 feet and actually try to be inspirational to a broad swath of voters and not just in a partisan way, but in a more global way. Um I think you hear those themes quite a bit.
It's probably not, it's not in the sound bites that you hear all the time, but I think he will be, I think the more you hear from him in the next several months, uh he'll be uh moving in that direction. You're gonna hear him uh speak about larger issues in a more positive way.
Oh, I th I think he can absolutely nail it. Really? Oh, yeah, yeah, the opportunism, his guilted life that he's had, all the big players that have been sponsoring all these years, the fact that he's never had a job in his life, but he is just a media darling. And he just has a natural poise into making people feel good. Now, the the trouble is you're gonna show the record, and then there's nice guy Newsom. Nice guy Newsome is gonna win every time.
Despite, you know, he could leave the pestilence and the burning fields, the earthquakes, and the people in the street was you know, wearing wearing tough boots
¶ Jobs, Affordability, And CEQA Tradeoffs
and 10 cups. Doesn't matter. I think he's gonna be able to win the propaganda war in terms of of the Democrats. And who and you know, who are his competition? I don't see the competition today, but that's the beauty. Well, right.
And the bar is kind of low from the vision thing point of view, right? Because what we've learned over the last for both Democratic and Republican presidents is that we used to worry about flip-flopping and specifics, right? There's no such thing. Policy agendas, right.
It's that the world is very transactional. Are you saying that Trump has changed the script on that completely?
Well, Trump is Trump is a great example of a transactional president. Right. Right? Somebody who is very much focused on getting something accomplished and will say whatever it takes to get that accomplished, even if it's something different than what he said three days ago. And, you know, so to me, what that says is, well, maybe we don't value the vision thing quite the same as we did before.
It's a consistency thing. I think everybody wants a vision. They want the hope, they want something. And even if it's uh against objective evidence, and it it's almost as bad. I I, you know, that that woman there that that that says that that they say is my wife, I didn't kill her. I'm sorry about the blood on my shirt. But but but he's the kind of guy that can that can get away with it.
And and not everybody's gonna buy it, but uh there's gonna be enough here because uh he's washing his hands and he got a new shirt. And I don't know what happened in there, you know, I wasn't around, and everybody knows it's not true.
So so so, in some ways, Newsom is is a different version of Trump.
Well, people people say that they don't like politicians, but at the end of the day, I think they want to hear good things, they want to be heard, they want to be seen. Right. And I think going back to Mondami really quick, that's something that he does exceptionally well. He if you're a young person and you're having trouble paying your rent and
¶ Why California Republicans Keep Losing
you're having trouble paying the bills and you have trouble putting food on the table, he speaks to you directly. He understands where you're coming from, he can speak your language, as it were. And I think Newsom has that ability as well.
He can say, I'm I've come from a relatively privileged background, and he can be self-deprecating and acknowledge that, and then quickly pivot and talk about the conversations that he has with, you know, real working Californians and what he witnessed throughout the state. He can tell those stories left and right and communicate them well.
Completely right in this Mondavi, yeah, and he's he's a master. I love those short videos. He's really one of the most attractive politicians I've seen in a while. And just in terms of emoting and getting his message out, and then he has a picture with an Eamon who was part of the World Trade Center first bombing, unindicted conspiracy. He's one of the worst human beings on earth, and he has a picture with him, like he's like he's a family friend of some type. So he can be next to a monster.
He, you know, they could have killed a whole bunch of people, but hey, look, it's me. You know, don't believe what you see, but believe what I'm what believe by vision. So there's a lot of superstition in politics.
Well, and and this vision, just one point I want to make is what's different this time around, well, maybe not this time, but more recently, is the echo chamber of fragmented media. Right. Right. So that mu Mondami can can do what you said, and it doesn't matter because it appeals to the media that his his message gets echoed in, and the flip side, right? So everybody's it's a question now of fragmented market segment versus fragmented market segment,
¶ Demographics, Out‑Migration, And Latino Shift
and who ends up showing up is really at the polls sure.
And and also creating your own market segment. I mean, the fact that Newsom started his podcast is no accident. That was a very calculated and I think smart move. I mean, the the old school way of thinking would be I'm gonna have that blockbuster interview on 60 minutes, and that's gonna change people's minds. If you told me if my options were going on 60 minutes versus joining on going on Joe Rogan, I'd go on Joe Rogan's show 99 times out of 100 over 60 minutes.
I'm not to say the 60, I'm not saying the 60 minutes isn't useful for a segment of the electorate, and I guess I will count myself as that segment, uh, older, uh, older folks. Um, that's not gonna reach as many people. That's not gonna make as big of a of a an impression. Plus, on a podcast, and this one included, you have a longer runway to get your ideas out. You can be more relaxed, you can the conversation's more free-flowing.
And if you are a member of the public and you feel that you don't know someone, you're not gonna get to know someone from a 60 minutes interview, but you're sure as hell gonna get to know someone in an hour and a half podcast.
And the other point is the interactivity. You know, when we post a podcast, we get thousands of thousands of people commenting on it, right? And Joe Rogan, millions of people commenting. When 60 Minutes puts its thing out, their audience talks to itself, but not really in any vivid kind of a way, because there's no vehicle to do it.
Right. Who invented all this? Trump. Yeah, the counterintuitive Trump uh found all kinds of alternative mediums. And that's, you know, conservatives have complained for years, mainstream media, mainstream media, but it's shrinking before our very eyes. All I I don't know, this would be a study you might know sooner about Joel. I think most of the mainstream major uh legacy newspapers are in bankruptcy. One time or another. The Orange County Register is in a third bankruptcy.
Circulation number the only times used to have a circulation of at least a million, and now I the numbers are beyond anemic. I'll give you an example.
The Korean Times, the daily, the daily Korean Times is three times as thick as the LA Times. They're getting the advertising, they have a niche market, they're able to afford it, and they have a vivid, small readership. But if you want to get to the Korean community, don't waste your time with the LA Times.
Let me just before we I would like to get at least a little bit on the governor's race, but here's an issue that I'm just wondering what Newsom does. It seems that the
¶ Final Thoughts And Uncertain Road Ahead
core value of the Democratic Party, at least the progressive wing, is you know, anti-Zionism, anti-Israel. I haven't heard much from Newsom on that issue. I mean, it does seem to be a very divisive one.
I think he recognizes that. I don't think there's any uh rational reason for him to engage deeply on that, knowing that there's it's it's it's a lose-lose proposition for him to get engaged on that. So I think he's going to avoid it as long as he possibly can. Now, recognizing the fact that, you know, when it comes to national politics and you're running for president of the United States, foreign affairs becomes becomes a very important part of your plank.
However, Americans do not typically vote on foreign affairs as a reason for choosing one hand and the other, and he recognizes that also.
Right, right.
And just take another point here, wouldn't it be amazing if Trump literally solved for the shit, nothing's long term or midterm, but sort of solved the Middle East situation with Gaza and Israel, and it's not an issue in 28, and then it's off the table, and then Newsom doesn't even have to comment on it.
I mean, I we I I think the chances of that happening are slim to none in the I think Hamas is already murdering people in the streets.
So I think I think the notion of peace in the Middle East is and of course the uh good that's bad news for News the Mandami types are saying, oh yeah, they should kill all the those people too. So it shows us what uh what nice people that they're associating with. But anyway, so okay, so we have this, you know, I think we've all agreed that Newsom is a formidable candidate, probably the front the front runner, shown the ability to go all the way. Um what happens to the state of California?
Um the state has got incredible problems. Um what's I mean, it's clearly going to elect another Democratic governor. Where where do how do you assess where we are with this now?
It looks as though we are still waiting for, and and folks have articulated they want to wait until the results of Prop 50 come in uh after November 4th. But I you have three unknowns, whether or not they get in or not. One of them is Senator Alex Padilla, which I think would be a uh seismic change.
And he would win easily, you would think.
Well, yeah, I would, and he's my former boss, so let me yeah, full disclosure, uh, I I wish him the best, and I would love if he were our next governor, no, no question. Um, Rick Caruso, although it seems more likely that he, if he chooses to run again, that he would run for mayor of Los Angeles, although he's engaging on state issues as well. And I don't think it's it's beneath him to run for governor of California.
Uh, and then as we've seen with his investment in his own expenditures for supporting Prop 50, uh Tom Steyr, I think, is considering running again. And he doesn't have to assemble much of a campaign. He can uh draw from his bank account instantaneously uh with uh direct deposits. So he's he's ready to go as well. So those are sort of the three X factors that I see in this race that frankly, and it's it's really not that uh long away.
It's only what eight months away, uh if at least for the for the primary election.
Right for these for these big big players to to show what happened to Bonte, Attorney General. To me, he was the obvious one. And you know, and it he's got great name idea. Padilla would be the only serious challenge. I'd like to hear from one expert. Why isn't Bonta in the race, the attorney general?
I'm not I if I were him, I'd again running for being governor of California, it's an arduous task, right? I think it's you have to be up for it. Why not establish a track record as attorney general? And maybe and maybe Bonta's calculus is he thinks that Padilla is gonna run for governor and win, and then Bonta runs for Senate. Who knows? So I think he he has a lot of he has a lot of different offerings.
Yeah, that that that's rational. And but I don't understand the Padilla's hesitation. He doesn't have a lot of competition out there, and that hesitation speaks volumes to me. I'm saying, well, if you're not that interested, you know, then we're gonna have to another look at uh Katie. You know, maybe Katie Porter's got a little more here. Maybe she's not that angry. He maybe she's on meds, maybe they'll give her some meds and she won't insult her staff as much.
Padilla just got elected to his first full term as senator. And but the people are calling. But he and Padilla also gets a free ride. He does not have to give up his seat to ride. So he is in an enviable position as politicians go. More to lose to win in a weird way. Absolutely.
Even if he loses, he wins. But so of looking at the both the Democratic uh nominees and the people who might uh face him on the Republican side, you know, one of the themes that Joel and I have been researching for the last decade is how screwed up the business environment is, how we're chasing the middle class out of California, the housing issues. Are any of these things likely to be addressed by any of these candidates that are coming up?
Well, I mean, to the legislature's credit and to Governor Newsom's credit, the we've seen some major strides in housing legislation, most notably the passage of SB 79, sponsored by you may not like it, but the fact of the matter is, and it's allowing for more construction of housing. It may not be the way you like housing. Well, next to mass transit.
Next to mass transit in the state where 3% of the people take mass transit so it's only areas where people don't want to go.
But they've chipped away at Sequa, they've made it front and center. There is enormous investment that the state of California is making to help subsidize affordable housing because, frankly, developers have made it very clear that affordable housing doesn't pencil out and they need that type of doesn't pencil out under the planning regime that the state is actually accelerated by adding extra taxes on areas where people drive, which is the vast majority of the city.
So with that type of momentum, whoever is uh is going to succeed Newsome would be very wise to continue that type, those types of pro-housing policies and pro-quality of life policies that we all strive for. And it may be a heavy lift, don't get me wrong. But I think I think that's what they will aspire to.
I I have such a diametrically different point of view on this, and it's just as you should. And I appreciate the chance of this dialogue, because usually you get you know one or two minutes and you only have only enough time for insults, and that doesn't solve anything. Trevor Burrus, Jr. We have plenty of time for insults.
We can throw the insults in later, too, if you want.
These are you know entire city blocks, five stories high, as dense as you can put that. I call it Soviet-style housing. You know, just put them in a big building, and maybe the elevators work, maybe they don't. I think the elevators are better nowadays, but it's it's can it's good it's compact human beings. But over Orange County, I saw entire areas where these were being built. It's like it's like cancer cells everywhere. And this was like four or five years ago.
So what Joel predicted years ago, this is war against the middle class and against the suburbs. And and it makes sense for the Democrats on a very pragmatic but evil level. If they get rid of it, they break the back of the middle class, they break the back of suburban areas, they will be in power for another 100 years because it'll be just nothing but festering, Soviet-style housing. Uh, and you can't raise children in those buildings. If you do, it's a human rights violation.
There was actually human rights investigations in Shanghai and in Hong Kong published papers 20 years ago about having people live at 120 square foot with the toilet and the shower above the toilet. You know, this is called housing, it's not housing, it's at the anti-human. We stopped building 90% of California can build in. You can't build in most of California. They fettered it off, they have green belts.
We could expand in the Antelope Valley, we could expand in the Central Valley, but the laws don't permit that. Legislation 30, 40 years ago by mostly Democrats and some Republicans. So uh there's no future for the suburbs, and that's pretty well killed. Unlike Texas, where they just keep building more suburbs and more suburbs, and then a few extra suburbs. And so that's a solid middle class environment for years to come.
California is going to have these high-rise, dense and barriers, quality of life, low quality of life, not a good, desirable place to live, unless you're 22 years old. Right.
I think it's pretty low quality of life if you have people who can't afford to live anywhere and are living on the streets.
And that would be Democrat policy, we've had that.
But but let's also remember that it's not just the housing. Homes are where jobs go to sleep at night. And if you want to have the economic stability in California that we all strive for, you have to house your workforce. And you're not saying the question is in what? Well, and it's and that's that maybe not be your flavor of ice cream, but nonetheless, you could and I think you're seeing you're seeing more. There's the Tahone Ranch project that you're saying where you're seeing more.
But it's enormous enormous. It's absolutely enormous. We need more of those. We need more of those. Death of the suburbs is greatly exaggerated. Well, no, it's not at all. Objectively speaking.
Well, first of all, the the as on a national basis, the suburbs are are where all the action is. California, there are some places like the IE, but let me just uh you know, as we Central Valley, too. As we're rounding around, let's let's let's pick on Sean a little bit. Excellent. Um I'm used to that. Given all the problems that uh are in California and with which you could, you know, you can easily uh you know make the case.
Why is the Republican Party in California absolutely worthless and is absolutely without any ability to affect much of anything? You're just trying to hurt my feelings.
I think you could have said it a little bit stronger. Actually, that's what half the Republicans say half the time. You know, what's wrong with our party? What do we? Uh well, we've had a massive outflow of Republicans. I go to RNC meetings, uh Republican National Committee meetings, and uh yeah, you're from California, goofy people out there, you know, oh my God, who would want to live there?
And I say, yeah, my job is to, and I I have a new realization, my job as an RNC committee, my job is to export Republicans out of California to purple states and then make Texas stronger. So Governor Abbott of Texas made a speech a couple of years ago. RNC, I love California's because his exit poll shows two out of three voted for them. And we know that because they're economic and cultural refugees.
They can't say, and we're finding that they're mostly younger families that can't find the job their parents had in California. We had huge, big $100,000 a year jobs in Downey, Norwalk, Long Beach, those are gone, they're not coming back. And here's the biggest tell of all our kids, including mine, cannot afford to buy the house they were born in. And that's because the Democrat policies, anti-housing. Look, if you want a house in California, you need a million dollars. So who gets the house?
The people that can afford a million dollars. So this is unlike Florida, unlike the red states that are growing and prospering. But California is actually regressing on housing. And all those little tricks and ideas, having a bike path direct to the metro station, living in a Soviet-style housing, isn't going to cut it. And the outflow, that's why we're losing congressional districts. That's one good thing. Losing congressional districts, you want to find places like Florida and Texas.
Uh, and so we'll have an outflow population. Millions have moved out of California, not all because they're the Republican refugees, but maybe two-thirds. I think that's reasonable based upon that one ex what uh the extra service that they've done in Texas. And so uh so we're seeing younger folks move out, retired folks move out that just want to get out of California. And every time I I speak to a lot of center-right organizations, and that's one of the questions I ask.
How many people know somebody that has moved out of California in the last year? Every hand races. And so, yeah, we got some recalcitrants. I mean, why would my party grow a hundred thousand when everybody's leaving, going to Texas?
So who is that hundred thousand? Right. And it can't be young people because the young people are not blocking to the Republican Party. Well, actually, actually.
Well, no, your argument is that it's that 20-something crowd that's still coming in. But it's also Hispanic, too.
This is the greatest shock to Democrats of all. How can these nice Hispanics, we've counted on, they've been our people, they we control them. We have these, you know, we we have this Hispanic assembly men everywhere, and yet the Hispanics have been moving to the right. And uh that's something, and not just California, but across the country, like Texas. They had the redistricting and they were sued by the ACLU and by Luca and the NAAC for having more minority districts.
So Texas Republicans gave it to them, five new Hispanic districts that voted overwhelmingly for Trump. That's the one of the great ironies. So they they you they counted on absolutely 100% control of Hispanics. They're they're losing that slowly, in some cases quickly, and they're also losing it among young black males. So it's exciting to see. But California is a lager. We used to be the future trend, but now California is a regressive trend.
You don't see the future of California in the fact that you have greater assimilation of the Latino electorate and the fact that there's that rec represents a maturity of that particular segment of the election?
It's not all bad. It's not it's not all bad, it's not all terrible. There's more gelato shops than ever, so that makes me personally happy. I don't get the practice in Texas of the lawyer, so I have to practice in California. But everybody I know has has an idea and a plan on the right, getting the hell out. Well, look, the trouble is the weather. How many people have their beach homes in California, but quote, don't live here?
Well, it's like New York with the people living in the pencil towers, and you know, but they're paying taxes in in Florida. Florida. Florida.
Well, they're they're or they're owned by LLCs. Well, we're and we're hitting our time limit, so we're gonna have to wrap up. But what I find interesting about this is that there is some uncertainty about how the political shifts will affect this next election. Right, right. Right. And you you made a really excellent point a second ago about uh Latinos being more assimilated than before.
And in fact, that may mean that that become more republic more Republican because they have more of a stake in the uh economy of the of the state.
Although, although I would say that the the way ICE is um at least being portrayed and maybe what they're actually doing is alienating even conservative Hispanics.
So that's the countervailing side. So I just want to thank both of you for just up. This was a rousing, as I predicted, a rousing conversation. Thank you so much. Yeah, we should do it after the election, too.
Oh, yeah, I'll be in a great mood. If the state's still here for Republicans, he'll he'll show up and no chortling.
I'm not running for election, but I would have an opportunity to run for uh for a new Democrat, safe Democratic seat.
Thanks for being on the Feudal Future podcast. We look forward to having both of them back again. Thank you.
Thank you.
The Feudal Future Podcast.