Navigating US-Mexico Relations in Turbulent Times

We're going to be talking about Mexico and to help us navigate what is happening in Mexico and attitudes in Mexico toward the US , we have two distinguished panelists Bruno Lopez is a former journalist at CNN , ABC News in Univision , and Alejandro Chafron is an economist specializing in public policy and , most recently , the managing director of the Acton Institute .

Gentlemen , welcome , Joel . You want to kick us off .

And the latest post I think I mentioned a while ago , maybe the poll by Financiero has Mexicans having a bad attitude about the US in a really high number 80% hold from under a negative view . The bilateral relation is seen horribly also , but who knows , maybe that will be a long-lasting effect .

And then you saw and I think I noticed you saw this , alejandro this video . You know Homeland Security paid the Mexican TV to air a one-minute spot where they have , you know , saying you know , if you come to the US you'll be deported . We are fed up with having criminals . This is a quote from the video . We don't want any more criminals in the US .

Which Mexico that has what ? Maybe 11 million Mexicans working in the US is telling Mexicans in Mexico that their family and relatives in the US are all criminals ? I mean it just insults that .

Canada and Mexico are very , very different , as you know . Canada is different , you know , from the French part to Ontario and to Vancouver have been all over the place and we were expecting a win by the Conservatives , you know , and pretty sure they were going running ahead . But again , you know , and pretty sure they were going running ahead .

But again Trump made what I think you know was like a stupid remarks . You know he's non-ideological , unhinged in many ways , and but I think that Mexico is a different thing . I think it is a much more .

Both cultures are regarded as a little bit as docile , but I think Mexico's population , I think , will follow their leaders and the relationship of their government with the United States and if they seem to have a cordial relationship , they will again look well to the United States .

Remember the enormous amount of remittances that come from the United States Mexican workers to Mexico . So I think what is good for Mexico is good for the United States , and vice versa . So I think the wounds will take longer to heal in Canada than in Mexico , and so I think that's my view .

We went through this big crisis because of the killing of Enrique Camarena , the DEA agent , who was killed in the early 80s and triggered an amazing amount of friction between the US and Mexico .

So I think you have like cyclical stuff happening all the time and what amazes me is that you know Mexico tends to heal fairly fast and maybe , like Alejandro was saying , maybe Mexico at the end has been more forgiven .

But I think something this in many ways is very different , because it's like a huge betrayal of the US towards Mexico and Canada and I think , if anything , I think it will really make Mexico think , as probably will do with Canada , how the need to diversify all their commercial relationships lessened their dependency on the US .

Hopefully , as an outcome , I would think Mexico and Canada would start working together more , because one of the sad things was during all the NATO negotiations in the 90s and then afterwards , mexico and Canada never really kind of aligned because I think they were spooked about pissing off the US . But now it's , you know clearly .

You know it doesn't make any sense for both countries to try , and you know , kind of keep the relationship with the US in the status quo situation . It's already proven that both countries are going to be kicked around anytime . So might as well start diversifying relations , trading more , hopefully .

Our trade Canada and Mexico is still very low , 40 billion a year compared to the 800 billion trade of Mexico with the US .

I mean , europe is increasingly a non-factor on a global level , just it's working hard on irrelevancy . China is not . Do you see that as something that Mexico may be doing , and is there any danger in embracing China ?

I think that the Mexican scene , with the power of the drug cartels and the whole crony capitalist structure and the whole of the government has on part of those problems , has made China sort of more careful in getting into Mexico .

But now , slowly , they are beginning to invest you know billions , you know in technologies that have to do with the auto car industry , you know , in Nuevo León , and but I think the Mexicans also have to know that that is an area where they're beginning to see major concerns in both parties in the United States and much more action .

The newly appointed ambassador to Mexico , ambassador Johnson , is very savvy on topics of intelligence . The Undersecretary of State , chris Landau , was a former ambassador in Mexico .

So all eyes are going to be looking for any sort of type of malfeasance of China in Mexico and ways that China might use to circumvent any sort of final barrier that will remain after this beginning of a trade war . We do not know what it will end .

Now they they backtracked and now they're saying they might not get approved .

So this actually gets to a global security question that I think Alejandro was alluding to , which is right now . The Trump administration has justified a lot of its actions on the basis of trying to get rid of the influence of drugs , the drug cartels , the quote , criminal activity , et cetera .

Do you think that this alignment with China and economic interests in China is going to open the door to a new line of argument from the Trump administration that basically says oh , there's now a global security risk or a exit exigent risk to the US from Chinese companies operating in Mexico ?

Remember that , unlike the United States , the whole Chinese economic apparatus is vertical , all responding to the Chinese Communist Party . So their concept of total diplomacy can be turned into total war if needed .

So there is deep concern all over the continent and today the general in charge of Southern Command is visiting President Milley in Argentina , who has become a staunch defender and aligning himself with the United States . So , yes , it will be a concern if we see increased Chinese companies operating in Mexico .

But again , the United States still trades a lot with China , you know . So we cannot expect Mexico to be , you know , more close borders with China than what we are .

So you have a level of concern for those getting sent back to Mexico who are not Mexican , with the expectation that Mexico will keep them there for a while , when Mexico has already become kind of , in a way , anti-immigrant Some of those also I was mentioning earlier .

But Mexico has become also very anti-immigrant . So I think the numbers were like 40% . This is the Pew Center poll this is July of last year , in which about 40% of Mexicans thought the southern border was out of control and about 30% of the people had very negative attitudes towards immigration . So you have both things playing .

But also , I mean remember what Alejandro was saying . I mean you have $67 billion a year going into Mexico sent by Mexicans in the US . People in Mexico must be , or are and have expressed they're very scared . What's going to happen with that money ?

So is there any notion that we may go back to more of a sort of if you know what the Germans would call , gostarbeide kind of situation , where people will come in on labor they won't bring their families , but they'll come here and work on the farms or in the restaurants or even in the factories , and then they could still have the remittances , but the US ,

and particularly the local communities , will not be stuck with taking care of large numbers of people that they don't have the ability to do . Is there any way of finding a kind of something that works for both sides ? I mean , I've heard some of the Trump people talking about this what , what , what do you ? How do you think that would be received ?

So this is during the Simpson-Rolino days , this is in the 80s . So a lot of the older folks who were illegal were telling me that they were used to coming back and forth , were telling me that they were used to coming back and forth but as they saw the border getting tougher to cross , they had started deciding not to go back to Mexico .

So I mean the only reason a lot of the Mexicans didn't want to stay in the US . They ended up staying because they could just be coming back and forth . Abrazerro program , like the one Alejandro , I think , think the Bracero program was in the 60s or 40s , I can't remember .

When we had the Bracero program , people could come and work and then go back Definitely during World War II on a large scale . Yeah , I think something like that probably would work . And , as I say , the majority of the people , all the people that I crossed with . I crossed with seven people illegally in the Nogales border .

None of them wanted to stay in the US . They were all wanting to go to the US work for a little while and then go back home .

You know that it will not guarantee citizenship but it will give you all the legal protections to those who were coming from Mexico when , during the Bracero program , illegal immigration almost disappeared . And again it's the fragile situation for human rights of illegal immigration . We cannot neglect that Also human rights correct .

Under all human rights standards Mexico scores much lower than the United States . And the smuggling and the human trafficking that was taking place during all this period of political encouraged invasion to our country , you know really has created a tremendous backlash and attitude towards immigration .

Recently , you know , in Mexico they've discovered this cartel ranch , you know , in Tuxitlan . You know it's really . You know the way that people live in a country where big areas are handled by the drug cartels in cahoots with the military . You know it's a drama . So hopefully , you know , both countries will improve in their relationship .

I will begin push again for this immigration by invitation program . We used to call it the red card solution because I think it's a much , it's a humane , it's totally consistent with rule of law and consistent with a tradition of the United States of welcome immigrants like me .

So maybe we ought to just think about this in a much less ideological way and more about a practical way . I mean part of the problem . When you talk about illegal immigration to Mexico , it reminds me very much of our show on South Africa , where there's also a big backlash in South Africa from immigrants coming from other parts of Africa .

So , you know , the question is can we come up with a set of policies that allow for , you know , some legal immigration , but also for many people ? Because you know I can see very well , if I'm coming to the United States and I'm working for a couple of years , I'm making 50 grand .

50 grand doesn't make that much of a difference here , but if you bring that back to rural Mexico you can live pretty well . I mean , I've been in Mexican towns where they say , oh yeah , he , he went . He went to you know Texas for 20 years and now he's living in a way he couldn't , I mean .

What I'm hoping is that we can move towards some sort of solution that will respect the individuals but also respect both countries , and I'm just hoping that maybe we can start moving in that direction , because what we're doing now is clearly not working .

They move from a very basic agrarian world to a basic industrial world , to a services-driven world , right , that's kind of the pattern that we see throughout history . Where is Mexico on that continuum and how does this play into Mexico's development scenario ?

The problem is that despite the more prudent macroeconomics of Mexico in the last decade , mexico is perhaps in the largest economies of the world , one of the ones that grew the least . This year they are forecasting almost no growth in Mexico .

I think Germany is one of those similar cases , canada as well , actually , and in Germany we see some political change Mexico , I think . That's why I think that the population is sort of used to that sort of stability that I don't like , but Mexico should be growing much more . Stability that I don't like , but Mexico should be growing much more .

But look , inflation is pretty sort of in control less than 4% a year and employment is very low in Mexico . So they have everything that should allow it to grow .

The problem with Mexico and most of the world is that the master key of economic development is rule of law and in Mexico , you know , the last reform of the judiciary I think will make people more afraid to go against the government and demand more radical reforms .

So I see you know , tremendous potential , but the weakness in the rule of law and then this new political scenario of a confrontational United States will make it more difficult for Mexico to return to higher rates of growth just the , the murder rate related to drug trafficking .

They found clothing of children and suitcases and stuff of hundreds of people who had been executed by the cartel . I think it was the Nueva Generación de Jalisco cartel . So I mean , how can a country be viable with that huge amount of violence ? I mean there are parts in Chiapas I traveled with my cousins in Mexico maybe three , four years ago .

I couldn't go now anymore . They're now controlled by different cartels . I mean even an archaeological zone we went to called Tolina . You can't even drive there anymore because it's controlled by a van of the cartels .

I mean it's still kind of directional data that I've seen for the first quarter of this year , but the level of fentanyl seizures and the number of labs getting seized by the Mexican government is already , just in the first quarter of the it's , already higher than whatever they captured in all of 2024 .

I mean , I think Mexico will only end up reacting to a huge amount of pressure , external , like the one exercised by the US , and I think it's very hard for Mexico on its own to break this .

You know , I'm a good friend of Eduardo Berastegui , who did the wonderful movie Sound of Freedom , you know , and he's he's trying to create a new political movement in Mexico . I don't know if we can create like islands of sanity in Mexico and start , you know , by a different region .

I will mention a name that frightens almost any policy analyst in my side of the libertarian world . You know , president Bukele from El Salvador , who in short time turned , you know , killing fields into killing poverty , you know , and turned one of the most difficult countries in the world into a much more safer place .

But again , he has been doing that sometimes , you know , going against the rule of law . So , but so that is my concern , you know . But the the flow , by stopping the flow of illegal immigrants from other countries going through your , through Mexico , which were being abused and and trafficked and the whole human rights abuses of all that traffic .

That should make it a little bit easier , you know , controlling some of the big dramas that have been taking place during these years . Regarding foreign pressure , there is a fear in the United States and others that sometimes this is a selective sort of witch hunt done by governments .

You know that they will try to use this crackdown to punish political enemies , but again it's a risk that perhaps is worth taking . You know , I think Latin America as a whole , not only Mexico , needs to improve . You know , improve in the area of rule of law and personal security .

In many ways the place is still growing . I mean , look , I mean it's become such a capital for expats . I mean there's so many , as I was mentioning , people from Europe and the US moving into Mexico . These cities are vibrant . I mean you go to Mexico City . It's a city in the world with the largest number of museums close to 70 , has five orchestras .

I mean , compared to Miami , miami seems like a village compared to what Mexico City is . So I mean I think you have a country that will be vibrant . And all this is happening despite all the violence that you see and all the people getting killed . And I just think Mexico is very resilient .

I would be surprised and maybe it's more my wishful thinking I would be surprised that the bilateral relationship just goes back to normal .

I would think this would be a signal , like it was for Canada , that things have to change dramatically for us for Canada and for Mexico to be more resilient in terms of their economies and not to just be subject to being virtually dismantled financially when the US just desires to do so .

I think that if we work to improve the understanding of both cultures , and especially now at government levels , I think that there is a degree of feeling that the Trump administration can work with President Shambhala and I think we are going to be seeing , in second levels of diplomacy , people trying to build bridges .

But again , this first 100 days of Trump , we have no idea how much it is posturing , how much it is really a negotiating tactic or how much really is a change in philosophy . So I want to be optimistic . I think that Mexicans , especially Mexican men in the United States , are very hardworking and very conservative and that we can have some reasons for optimism .

But again , we have challenges in both countries , you know , and I hope for the best .

We're talking about most of the new businesses that have been formed , a very strong , growing Mexican-American middle class , which is becoming very dominant in a lot of our suburbs .

So I'm hoping , somewhere in that confluence of Latino America and Latin America , that we will find some sort of balance in some sort of way that these two cultures can interact in a positive way , because you know , as in the studies that we're doing at Chapman and also at the University of Texas , you know there is no future for America unless it's somehow

integrated with this large new population and that may be the bridge that leads to better relations in the long run .

Next year , you know we're celebrating 250 years , you know , of the founding of the United States and there was a major contribution from the Hispanic culture that Mexican scholars of the 16th century contributed to create the basis of what we know now is the constitutional order of the United States States .

You know there's something called the School of Salamanca and Mexico had a major scholar like Fray Tomás de Mercado , a Dominican , who were great champions of rule of law and the market economy and the free economy and some of us believe . You know that the first constitutions of the United States were inspired by the Hispanic scholars .

John Locke was only six years old when the fundamental orders of Connecticut were drafted .

So there's a group of hundreds of scholars that next year , and beginning soon , we are trying to highlight the importance of the Hispanic and contribution to the United States rule of law and perhaps that diminishes some of the stigma that some of the people today are putting upon us . You know laws of Hispanic origin or Latino origin .

So I think we tend to think that maybe Hispanics , in a way , might be progressive in one way , or might be more considerate with immigration and with immigrants , but I think those who already arrived and are here tend to want to see the doors closed , locked , not seeing more people coming in . There's less level of sympathy .

You can see it now in Miami , ayalia , not actually in Doral , which is where like 30 or 40,000 Venezuelans live .

I mean , they just did a partnership with ICE and they're rounding up people to get them deported , although you know the people getting deported are those Venezuelans that are here that the other Venezuelans , who may be already US citizens or illegal residents , should be more sympathetic with , but they're not .

I think you have this horrible complex of you know the incumbents . They're already here , they have kind of their stuff more or less solved . They don't care about it .

And I think that I think one of the reasons for the hostility towards immigration is a lot of the people crossing the borders weren't Mexicans , they were from other countries , and you know , if you think about it , a lot of Mexican-Americans work in fields where a large number of new entrants who are not legal is not necessarily in their interest .

So , anyway , I mean , I think this has been more hopeful than I expected .