The Feudal Future Podcast .
Hello and welcome to the Feudal Future Podcast .
I'm Marshall Toplansky , I'm Joel Kotlin and Joel , you know , the two of us , at this stage of life , are very interested in how trends are emerging and how they differ from trends over time , and we're living in perhaps one of the most stressful , polarizing worlds that we've ever found ourselves in at least , we feel that way .
To help us sort that out today , we've asked Emanuel Probst to join us . Emanuel is the global lead of brand thought leadership at Ipsos . Ipsos , for those of you who do not know , is one of the largest market research firms in the world and they do an annual study that is breathtakingly large in its statistical scope , and Emmanuel leads that . Emmanuel welcome .
Well , Marshall and Joel , thank you for having me on the show . It's a pleasure being with you today .
Well , thanks , and Joel , do you want to kick us off ?
I mean , obviously we talk about polarization , whether in Europe or the US , or even recently on the polarization between men and women , which I just did a piece about for Unheard . But what I wonder about is is this unusual or is it different than I mean ? I'm old enough to remember the 60s , which were pretty stressful and pretty polarized .
What is your research telling you ?
Yeah , I think we see this in the United States , as you said , and of course , this is so prevalent with a general election coming up in a few weeks even , frankly , a few days now . But that's true in many other markets , many , many other countries , and you see this most recently in the UK that went through an election .
By the way , 2024 is a very important year for democracy because over 40% of the world's GDP votes in an election this year . What I mean by this is you have important elections being held all the way from the United States through Europe , all the way to Taiwan , so it's decision time all over the world , and we see this polarization here in the US .
We saw this polarization recently in the UK and also in France , with an election that clearly shows the divide between , broadly speaking , a far-left movement and a far-right movement and a bunch of people fighting in the middle , and the bottom line is no majority emerged from this most recent election in France . But back to your question , joel .
We really see that there is rising nationalism and populism in the context of this global economy , and we see disinformation also playing a role , and we see tensions among economic superpowers again in Europe and in the Western world , and all this is fueling , if you will , this nationalism , populism , trans movements across the world .
Do we see any positive things that people share across all of these markets that give you hope for the future ?
Well , there is an argument to make that Gen Z is the first global generation , and what I mean by this is this generation really leverages technology to not just communicate but to really bond with people all over the world , based on interests and beliefs and lifestyle attributes , if you will , and , of course , the distance is no longer the issue .
So what I mean by this is you see communities of gamers , for example , playing with people all over the world , and you see other communities , of course , on social media , on forums like Reddit again , of people trading information and tips about very specific topics without having to worry about what country they live in and what the time difference might be and
whatnot , and I think that's encouraging . So that's what you know .
Those are the people we call the digital natives and I'm dating myself a little bit and I trust it is okay , marshall and joel with you to say this , but the digital natives are those people who grew up with the internet , who grew up with wi-fi , who wouldn't understand that we wouldn't have 5g signal anywhere we go right , they don't know what dial-up internet
access sounds like and so and so , just because we grew up in an era of smoke signals before , electricity was created .
You know we can relate to that . It's perfectly fine to talk about .
But I , but you know I I understand what you're saying , but I also think that there's a negative to this , which is that people are related to people , in a sense , that are not in their community . So , for instance , if you have a , I found this when I was working in both .
Well , particularly in Japan , where if a Japanese was a ecologist and that was their , they were closer to an ecologist here than their neighbor , and that this is happening at a time in which church attendance has dropped , club attendance has dropped , marriage rates have dropped , levels of insecurity and anxiety have risen .
So the question is is this positive greater than the negatives that come with it ?
I heard three things , joel , so I'm going to try to be concise . First , it's this call it a global tribe , and you're right . Basically , we know how to communicate with people on the other side of the world . We don't know our neighbors . Add to this the impact of pop culture , social media and how overwhelmed we are with role models .
What I mean by this is , let me plead guilty , I know all of the Kardashians . I know their name . That's what I mean . I don't know the names of all my neighbors on my street , so I know the Kardashian sisters better than I know my neighbors , if you will . So in that regard , that's concerning In terms of creating true relationships with people .
Well , there's a struggle .
I spoke about the digital natives , and they're not as good as communicating in person , simply because they're used to communicating with apps , and this is about to get worse with artificial intelligence Now , because , as humans , we like to connect with apps , and this is about to get worse with artificial intelligence Now , because , as humans , we like to connect with
people and we are inherently driven by and towards social interactions . I think we're really hitting the limit of those online and virtual interactions . You see , these dating apps will tell you so Matchcom is the global leader in dating apps . There are a few other entities in that market . They're seeing a decrease in terms of downloads of those apps .
Just people are starting to max out , to put it nicely , of having so many interactions with so many people yet struggling to find something that is real . And of course , the domino effect , joel , of what you mentioned is people getting married later , people starting a family later . It is the paradox of choice .
It is I'm sure you two are familiar with this book from Barry Schwartz and for our listeners we can talk to the paradox of choice , this theory that is , the more options you have , the least you know what to do and what to choose Right .
You know in listening to you talk , the notion that community is now coalescing globally because of the technology , versus locally , which is kind like-minded people into communities , globally from just a pure communication perspective . But one of the big benefits of community was the amelioration of loneliness .
Right , right , the , the , the emotional support system that a community can give you is the new community of today that is technology based , able to provide that . What are you seeing in terms of the , the general level of loneliness exhibited in the in the results of your surveys ?
Yeah , in my first book there was a chapter called the more connected we are , the lonelier we feel , and recent surveys show not specifically from Ipsos in general that younger generations are sadly more depressed and might have hundreds of followers , if you will , or thousands or dozens of thousands , yet struggle to identify two or even one true best friend in real
life . So the short answer to your question is unfortunately , we see an increase . By the way , that's not just surveys . You see this in the increase of prescription medicines for SSIs , for example , antidepressants .
There was , during the pandemic we based in the Los Angeles area at the time we recorded that podcast there was , during the pandemic , a shortage in Los Angeles of specific , well , two brands of SSIs . I'm not going to mention those brands on the podcast , I don't think we should , but there was a shortage of SSIs .
But there was a shortage of SSIs , so antidepressants and also anxiety medicines in Los Angeles . And so that's all to say that this digital generation we spoke about before . Well , good news , there is a melting pot of culture and that's fascinating and that's extremely rich .
However , bad news , the depth of those interaction is not there and I think people don't struggle to make new friends , people struggle to make true connections and really communicate with a sense of depth .
You know it's interesting . You should mention that we we just at Chapman University we just had a seminar that was about incoming students and it was to sensitize the faculty to the fact that so many more students are having emotional issues than ever before .
Yeah , Almost every class . There are two or three that you have to have some sort of special handling .
Well , and one of the points that was brought out is that children that come from more affluent households seem to exhibit these kinds of systems , these symptoms , more . Which brings me to my question really is the opposite true .
Do you find that middle class people , people who are kind of more tethered to the real world in terms of their general daily activities , they have to interact with other factory people or other service people . Are you finding that they differ in terms of this community issue ?
Yeah , the middle class is an interesting terminology that's really evolving . So what we see is the middle class incomes . Those people are more stretched in advanced economies but growing in other economies . So the Asia Pacific middle class , for example , is going to account for most global middle class spending .
Now , in the US , the terminology is a little bit tricky , right ? Because manufacturing you spoke about manufacturing and that is no longer the call it the economic ladder for emerging markets as it was in the past century . But we haven't seen a replacement for manufacturing yet . And , of course , artificial intelligence is really the buzzword , if you will .
But how is artificial intelligence and this acceleration of technology , how is that going to impact the so-called middle class ? So I think it would be interesting to revisit the answer to this question in as soon as 12 , 18 months from today . But back to the sense of connection , I'm not sure that it is tied to a , an income class , if you will .
I feel that it is also driven , largely driven by other demographics and psychographics .
Yeah , you know it's interesting . You mentioned that AI is kind of a first world problem in a way . Right , it's a developing country issue , but actually it will be a developing country issue . Well , I look at it as actually relatively recently .
If the manufacturing model for development of emerging economies is breaking down , one of the things that has actually replaced it in a lot of places like India , as an example , or Philippines , is call center and service-oriented global economic activity , and that is squarely in the target zone of where AI is aiming right to be able to replace these , these kinds of
these kinds of call centers and also , I think , in terms of of .
You know , one of the things I've been writing about and I'm interested in is if a lot of middle level jobs , professional jobs , which were once seen as something stable like , but now we're finding even when we talk to our engineering and and computer faculty at Chapman , it's becoming harder to place those people in jobs as AI develops , high-tech jobs go down .
I don't know what the sociological effect of that's going to be if a whole group of people who thought the world was breaking the right way for them end up that it didn't break the right way for them . It ended up that it didn't break the right way for them .
Well , and Joel , to your point . I was privileged enough to attend Cannes Lions International Festival of Creativity for the last two years and I was lucky enough to hear the founder of NVIDIA , the chip company , talk , of course , about the advent of AI . And back to your point on computer science .
He said a few years ago we would prompt students to study computer science because people who could code right were in demand , very highly paid type of people .
And today there is really this trend of no code , no coding , thanks to AI , whereby it will become much easier to create software and apps and functionalities without having to code , apps and functionalities without having to code .
And so the bottom line and of course I'm not quoting him very precisely , but his point was to say we're evolving from coding to no code and the future of computer science . Of course there's a very bright future for your students , but certainly not anymore in mastering coding languages , as there was even five years ago .
Oh , I totally agree .
We see this today , in today's job market in fact and you know what kind of humors me a little bit , but is true is that there's a growing demand for prompt engineers , people who can be very precise with AI in instructing it what , what the code is that it would like the AI to create and , um , that kind of gets to , um , that's getting to higher order
managerial , um , managerial discretion being being brought down to a more entry-level person .
And then you know , if we could , just , given all this is going on , what do you think the political ramifications are going to be ? I mean , 80% of young people , according to one survey , feel that their jobs are going to be threatened by AI . Certainly a lot of jobs in factories , in hotels , in fast food restaurants are threatened .
Is this going to drive the polarization ? And my sense is it will express itself both on the far left and the far right . What's your sense of that ?
Yeah Well , two parts in my answer . One the technology , as always , is scary at the beginning and will create opportunities in the long run . It's the same thing with the internet , and AI does what you tell it to do . So it is going to eliminate some jobs because you can automate some tasks and scale those tasks without the need for human intervention .
However , it's also going to create opportunities that we don't even know of today . So technology adoption the fact that what we see is six in 10 have access to the internet globally now , and the highest regional penetration is in North America and Europe .
So back to what we were saying earlier about middle class and different tiers of income brackets , if you will , I think technology is an opportunity for a wider population to access opportunities . So I'll leave it at that . And then you asked about politics for a wider population to access opportunities . So I'll leave it at that . And then you asked about politics .
Yes , I think that AI , at least in the short run , is not necessarily good news . That's because you're going to be able to well , we see this already the ability to create deep fakes , for example . The ability to create deep fakes , for example , the ability to manipulate pictures and to spread those pictures on social media very easily .
And , of course , there is the election interference , and we saw some of this in the United States a few years ago . This today , it's a case in point .
A few days ago , candidate Vice President Harris held a meeting at an airport basically an airstrip and the picture got manipulated in a matter of minutes so that you can see a bigger crowd or less of a crowd and whatnot , and this same reasoning would work towards former President Donald Trump .
So the point being is , the technology enables almost anyone to manipulate the information , manipulate the picture and voice and even footage , and spread this fake news to a large , very large audience online , and this can be done from wherever in the world .
Well , and so has this . This is actually leading to a wonderful way of wrapping up this conversation , which is are you seeing that technology or just the general feeling about the authenticity of brands ? Harris is a brand , Trump is a brand . You have brands that are making products and services . Has the general sense of authenticity been eroded ?
So here is the opportunity for brands which we see in our studies at Ipsos is people place more trust in brands often than they do in government agencies , political organizations , politicians and so on and so forth . Let's be clear when I say they place more trust in brands , it's towards specific tasks .
I'll give you an example in a second Towards very specific tasks , and that's not to say that people trust brands over everything . I'm saying . People place more trust in brands than they do in government agencies , for example . So I'm going to take a concrete example Data privacy .
People are going to place more trust in Google and Microsoft to teach them how to keep their personal data safe and secure than they would in a government agency or media outlets or an influencer , a media personality , for example . So you use the word authenticity from a marketing standpoint .
Authenticity is , I think I would say , slightly different construct , if you will , and my short answer is brands can come across as very authentic . And how do they do so ? By being imperfect . I like there was a chapter in one of my books imperfect is perfect .
So if you demonstrate vulnerabilities , you come across as authentic , right and , importantly , brands have a role to play . And to sum it all up this conversation .
We spoke about the middle class , we spoke about some political divides , we spoke about the technology , and brands have a role to play in providing guidance , in educating people , and brands have a role to play . Brands can no longer just sell products . Brands have the opportunity to make a positive impact on people and the world around them .
That's really what I believe world around them .
That's really what I believe . Well , let me just let's one final question that builds on all of this . The work that you've done is longitudinal in nature . It gets replicated on an annual basis , I presume , and so you were able to see trends over time . What are you seeing ? Are we you know ?
The doomsayers out there say we're at a tipping point , that we're at a crisis moment . Are you seeing that ?
You know , the doomsayers always say that we're at a tipping point and nobody really knows , because we don't have a crystal ball . I mean , we tease out the trends that are so important , but how do you know if you're at the tipping point unless you have this reflect on yeah and well , allow me to be a little bit sarcastic and cynical .
I don't want , I don't allow my students to start a paragraph by saying in today's highly competitive environment , okay , because when is it ? The environment hasn't been , have you guys ? We've all been in academia for a number of years .
Do you ever remember a time when we could say well , in that world , that's not competitive and we just have to take money to the bank ? You know ? I mean , I graduated , I'm going to , I'm dating myself . I graduated from AMB in 2004 . In 2004 , we would say in today's highly competitive environment , ok , so so I'm being sarcastic here .
But back to your point about the world is divided and we're at a tipping point . We said the same thing in 2016 , when Donald J Trump won the election to Hillary Clinton . And is the world doing better ? No , the world is still divided . Is it going to get even more divided ? Possibly .
I just think that the technology accelerates this and we see this rise of populism indeed , but bottom line , I think it's a growing trend . I don't know if we've seen the end of it . Well , fascinating and thank you .
We love the sarcasm and the cynicism we we have fun with it ourselves and emmanuel probst from ipsos . Thank you so much for joining us on the feudal future podcast .
Thank you thank you , marshall and joel , really appreciate you having me on the show and thank you to our listeners today the feudal future .