The Feudal Future Podcast . Hello and welcome to a very special edition of the Feudal Future Podcast . I'm Marshall Toplansky , I'm Joel Kotkin and we are sitting here just before New Year's 2024 . This is going to be our year in review show and actually we were kind of thinking , you know why are we going to be our year in review show ?
And actually we were kind of thinking , you know , why are we going to do a year in review show ? Nothing of any interest or import happened at all this year . But then we were like , ah , maybe something happened . That was so , joel , what do you think ? I mean , it's been a been a heck of a year . What , what , what ?
What stands out to you as kind of the big , the big deal ?
Well , I think the big story and I would say this on a global level in interviews we did in Europe and South Africa and involving Latin America , kind of world order as imagined in , let's say , francis Fukuyama's book , the End of History of this liberal , rules-based order has just essentially fallen apart that we're now in a period in which there's enormous amounts
of global conflict . We're back into the , if you will , the age of empires .
I think that we're seeing a kind of very typically feudal rebellion of those parts of populations , whether they're in Africa or in the United States or in Mexico , of people who feel that they've been left behind , and this time in the United States they went with Trump and the Republicans , who have been traditionally the party of wealth .
You know . It's interesting that you should say that , because it feels like we're in a era of renewed pragmatism where people just care about their bread and butter issues personal safety , am I making enough to make a living ? Am I , you know ? Is my family getting ahead ?
And a lot of the ideological discussion about things like climate change , the importance of climate change these seem to be being pushed to the- .
Like transgenderism .
Yeah right , exactly the solving , the balming of the world's ills in the past . These things seem to be moving toward the background now , as people start thinking about issues that are more important to them in the day-to-day .
And probably one of the most interesting parts for us has been , since we've done all this work this year on Latinos , is the fact that Donald Trump got close to a majority of the Latino vote . They this is exactly the voter you're talking about . It's the one who's worried about . Is my ? Is my child going to school and learning anything ? Is it ?
Am I going to have a job ? Is ? Is my ? Is my job at the , you know , at the port , at the steel mill , at the logistics center ? Is that being threatened by , by energy policy ? Is is it also going to be threatened by technology ? And and this is kind of a , a pushback that we're going through is you know ?
You almost you know , you can almost see what's happening and what's fascinating is it's happening all over the world .
Doesn't it strike you as odd that let's take Latinos as an example , because we've done a tremendous amount of work there . Here it is .
You have a Donald Trump who's saying we're going to have the largest mass deportations in the history of the United States , we're going to have the largest mass deportations in the history of the United States , very clearly focusing on Latino countries and Latin countries . And and yet Latinos who are living here are going .
Yeah , man , go for it , we're , we're , we're up . Doesn't it seem kind of odd to you ?
Well , it seems odd , unless you actually pay attention . You know I mean . Part of the thing is the academics in particular will say oh well , latinos relate to other Latinos . Well , you know , latinos are people .
They have the same aspirations everybody else has .
And if I'm ? If I'm , let's say , doing you know work I'm working in a , in a , in a factory , or I'm a truck driver . I'm working in a factory or I'm a truck driver and all of a sudden some guy from Venezuela is willing to do it for half the price that's not very good for me If I have limited services .
This has happened in Chicago and New York , where your local park has been taken over by a migrant camp , and what seems to have happened is the Democrats have become so sort of convinced about their ideology that they've forgotten to serve the people .
Well , and and part of that ideology has been identity politics , right , which , I have to say . One of our episodes that we had this year that I remember most was Mike Madrid , just before the election , saying to us you guys made a big mistake with your research , calling it El Futuro es Latino . Don't put it in Spanish . Latinos don't want to be pandered to .
In Spanish , they want to be treated like everybody . Any other American group which kind of made me realize , well , any other American group which kind of made me realize , well , is that true of other identity politic groups , right ?
The idea of identity politics is that you're an aggrieved minority that somehow has been done wrong and we have to undo all of that . Is that really extending across all groups , or how do you ?
feel about that . Well , I think it's across a lot of groups . You know it's kind of the victimization Olympics .
But the problem is , while that may help university professors , dei professionals , you know people maybe in the media , at each group , african-americans at some point African-Americans , particularly African-American men , are beginning to realize that this is not a good deal for them . You know that there has been very little progress made since the 1980s .
Then you take a look at some of the other groups . You know even you have , let's say , the gay . You know the gay community . How is the gay community helped by identifying with Islamic fundamentalism ? I it's , you know , as a friend of mine calls it . You know chickens for KFC , you know , I mean , I mean that .
Or , if you take a look , obviously Latinos are a good example . I mean that . Or if you take a look , obviously Latinos are a good example . Asians Now , part of the theory was Asians . Well , they're people of color . Well , first of all , asians are an amazingly diverse group . Like Hispanics , their social characteristics are very much merit-oriented .
Well , dei basically destroys the merit system . The Asian community has long focused on that . By the way , same thing is true of the Jewish community . Jewish community , the way you got ahead was by working hard and doing well in school . That was the formula .
And by becoming a doctor Right , as my mother always reminded me , and I completely deeply disappointed her I didn't have to do that because my father was a doctor , but but .
But the reality is that that that we forget that these groups are a diverse , that they're complex . There are certainly elements of Trumpism that would turn them off , but there there are many elements of of Harris that turn them off .
I mean , I think the biggest issue may not even have been how the minority groups voted , but how many people didn't vote , that they couldn't get people to come out after spending one point three billion dollars .
Although we did have arguably very high turnout in this election , more so than we have had in previous elections .
overall , Right , but the total number of votes like , for instance , you know , trump has basically just repeated what he did before Harris is you know a lot , several million votes less than Biden had . So the question is is not you know ? You know , we on this podcast we don't support one political party or another .
I just think both parties are heading into a serious question with the realignment . Can the Republican Party , which depends still on very rich people who finance it ? Can they find an agenda that works for a working class people ? The Democrats have got to move away from the cultural stuff and move more .
Well , talk about relying on on rich donors . They do too . I mean , gone are the day of Bernie saying , bernie Sanders saying I've got 7 million people who gave me $2 , you know that this is not . That was the working class approach of then , and today it's a rich oligarchs that are putting money into both sides of the equation .
I mean . But you know , let's , let's , by the way , just on the feudal theme . Just , you know , it's almost like we have the conflict between Lord Musk and Lord Gates . You know , two unbelievably wealthy people who have more money than than any people have ever had in history , and they're fighting each other .
You know it's a it seems like a star Wars episode , you know the war of the roses . Well , you know the so let's , let's , let's kind of put a a fork in it . The election is over . Trump won . He won the pop , the popular vote , as well as the electoral vote . There's a certain set of expectations that came with Trump's being elected .
What do you think he is now obligated to do ?
I think the biggest problem and this is a problem that politicians should do in the face in general , they got to deliver something economically should do in after face in general they got to deliver something economically low on .
I mean , trump in many ways was was reelected because actually the period of from until the pandemic was one of the more prosperous periods in American history . I , I , but he , he's going to have to deliver on those jobs . You know it can't just be well , now you have to pay 20% more for everything you buy at Walmart .
You've got to be saying , yeah , but there's a factory now producing the product that used to be come from China and that's employing a bunch of people . So he's going to have to deliver on that level . He's also going to have to deliver in this dealing with with the undocumented . How does he do it in a humane way ?
How does he do it in a way that's acceptable ? I mean , I think right now I think they're very clever to focus on the criminal elements , because I think there'll be almost universal belief in that . But he's going to have to deliver a lot of things .
He's going to have to deliver to to the people , the , the urban communities , which didn't vote for him , but voted more heavily for him , by supporting charter schools , homeschooling I mean . I mean , look what's happened .
Well , let's face it . I mean , we've seen the data in California . The percentage of students that have X have passed the basic skills in English , reading and math are just abysmal .
Well , one recent study is only one third of Americans nationwide in fourth grade can read at grade level . Yeah , I mean there's no way we compete as a country , and so the question is does Trump have an answer to that , you know ?
And then for the Democrats , can they perhaps find a way of taking some of the stronger parts of the Trump program , but making it more human , making it more socially just ? And the question is whether they have the ability to do it .
I mean , we're sitting here in California and they're talking about running Kamala Harris as governor , and I'm just saying this is a person who just ran one of the most wasteful , stupid campaigns in history , has shown no ability to be , no matter how many movie stars and pop stars she appears with . There's no way to make Kamala Harris an attractive person .
Well , we're talking about also two years from now . You know just as that story comes out , about Kamala , kamala going out and thinking about running . You have Gavin Newsom who basically woke up and said , oops , I , trump , won a lot of places in a lot of places in California . I better start shoring up support on behalf of the party .
So that's going to be interesting . But here's the overlay . That's politics , is always politics . Overlay those that's your politics is always politics . If the issues are really bread and butter , am I going to have a job that pays something decently ? Is my family going to get ahead ?
Am I going to be able to have affordable housing someplace at any time in my life ? Yeah , all of these things are kind of dependent upon an economic model where people work . What happens with AI coming in ? It is happening at an unbelievably explosive rate .
All the wishful thinking in the world , and maybe all the great economic planning policy in the world , is not going to erase the fact that AI is going to bring massive unemployment . How do you think that's going to affect all of this ?
Well , that's going to be really an important issue . And I think it's going to be an important issue and again , and oddly enough , is going to make the working class even more important , because the interesting thing about AI is , yes , it will eliminate some lower income jobs , but it's also going to eliminate lots of high income jobs .
You know , that whole learn to code business is kind of ridiculous , as one of our early guests , you know , ronnie Alavitz , made the point . You know it's not going to be my son . You know the coder is going to be my son , the plumber .
And if , if , we can build up that tactile part of the economy , the tangible part of the economy , I think whoever can deliver that is going to be in a good position . Because I think where we're going to see some real problems is the and there's been some very good writing on this recently we overproduce elites , we overproduce too many of kids .
I know because we both teach and we can hear about the students .
You hear stories about taxi cab drivers in India having PhDs Right , and I wonder whether we're kind of moving into that same direction . We've somehow . I love the word tactile economy . I think that we're going to have to use that now so please copyright that .
But the maintenance of physical infrastructure both infrastructure in a building , structural sense and infrastructure as human beings Right , like healthcare , those are the last bastions of humanity in the sense of human labor required to be able to do it .
So I think , if you think about if that's where the future is going to be , what do we need to do differently from the education system ? You know , I remember when we had metal shop and wood shop in high school . You don't have that anymore and maybe this is the kind of stuff when we were in an industrial mode .
Maybe this is the kind of stuff we need to go back to .
And I think that the key thing and you know we have to take some responsibility as as as teaching ourselves you know that we have to understand that not everybody should go to college , not everybody should get a four year degree , and if we are going to do that , they have to come out with real skills .
I mean , you know , I can see a phenomena where you know people go out and they essentially mail in the degree because you know the AI does all the homework . Who needs those people ? I need somebody who can fix the screen door of my house . You need somebody who can do a scan .
You need somebody who can drive a truck that will bring blueberries from Washington State to California .
And it's unlikely to be a robo truck . It's probably going to be humans involved somehow .
Certainly for the foreseeable future .
You know it's funny because that implies that there's some hope here . I was reading an article the other day about foreign direct investment in the United States and it compared us to all the other countries in the world .
The total amount of money that comes into the United States in investment which is basically people saying , hey , I want to invest in the US economy because I think there's going to be a return , it's a hopeful place Is more by a large , large factor than every other country on the planet combined .
And that's what's going to be very interesting and maybe you know , to give our , our listeners , a a little bit of hope . America is fundamentally in great shape . You know , Trump talks all the America week and all that , and some of what he's saying is true , but basically , compared to everyone else , we're just kicking butt .
And not only that , but China is faced with some very , very severe issues . You know they're very vulnerable on resources . They're not employing their young , educated people . Birth rate is very , very , very much reduced . I mean , the birth rate in Beijing and Shanghai is the lowest ever reported .
I read an article that looked at the potential world population in 2150 . And the estimate for China was half a billion people . Today it's 1.3 billion people . That's quite a reduction . I mean , look at what that kind of hollowing out has done for Japan .
And the thing about it is the population will be older and China does not have a well-developed social security system . I mean , its medical system is not anything like what we have in this country . So I think we have a period where A China has some vulnerabilities . Russia is , just at this stage , basically a criminal enterprise of limited appeal .
I mean , I don't see where people want to duplicate that .
Lots of oil , lots of natural gas . Right , that's what's fueling it .
Right , and that's the whole thing . And , of course , you know , the United States produces more of both than Russia does . So I think the opportunity for America is great , and I think one of the things that I feel very strongly about is the fact that I think our system has managed to deal with this .
And you know , I think one of the things that always bothers me is in both parties , particularly the Democrats these days , they want to get rid of all the constitutional restraints . You know , it's interesting all these people saying , oh , we want to get rid of the filibuster , oh , but now the Republicans might , might be able to forget about that Right .
I mean you , you , the , the fact that we have these checks and balances , even like even though I think he's a preening mediocrity a governor Newsom . It's good that that that states fight the federal government , whether it's Texas fighting Biden or California fighting Trump .
It shouldn't be a slam dunk hegemony right .
The founding fathers were really smart and you know you don't want to mess with the Supreme Court because the Supreme Court's always going to be a lagging indicator . Very , very liberal Supreme courts went through the entire period during Reagan , and and and later on .
You know , even when there were Republican governments , you had a , you had a more liberal Supreme court , even if , let's say , the Democrats come back in in in 2026 and 2028 , you're probably going to have a conservative judiciary for the foreseeable future .
Well , and what would be the trigger for the Democrats coming back ? Would it be ? I doubt it would be identity politics , which has really been kind of the hallmark of democratic policies and politics over the last couple of decades . What do you think it would be ?
I think it's economics . You know , it's the old James Carnival you know , it's the economy stupid , and I think that let's just say we end up with . You know I'm not saying it's going to happen , but the tariffs cause a huge inflation . There's social disruption from the deportations . The US gets involved in trade wars with some of our leading trading partners .
I think there's a lot of ways . You know Trump is is a deal maker , and that is best . He's a great deal maker , but you know he's had his failures .
North Korea didn't exactly work out very well , so foreign policy is an issue that we probably want to explore a little bit . It's great to make America great again , right . It's great to reassert American leadership , Um . But it's a new world , right . It's a new world where resources are being realigned and countries are being realigned . What do you think is ?
What do you think ? Will it be jingoism , or will we find a better way of assimilating ourselves into a new world order ?
Well , I think it's about real politic , the return of this idea that . You know , I think it was one of the British prime ministers who said that Britain had no permanent friends but only permanent interests . And I think one thing that I think Trump will bring , and I think is positive , is an understanding of real politics .
You know , he's not saying America should control everything and every time there's a problem we should send the army Quite different in his perspective , but we have to begin to have a notion that , yes , America is still by far the most important and powerful country in the world , but there are some really strong competitors out there , you know .
So does real politic mean lack of an overarching strategy ?
I think it means that you make your decisions based on what is in the interest of your country , as opposed to some sort of ideological construct Interest of your country at the moment , right and in the foreseeable future . I mean it doesn't seem to me that the Europeans , with their energy policy , are exactly doing anything good for Europe .
You know , I mean as we discussed when we were talking about with people in South Africa . You know why are Western diplomats telling a country like South Africa , which has huge coal deposits , that you got to go to wind and solar , like it's not going to happen ? You know there isn't the money for it .
Do you feel as though we're getting outplayed by the Chinese in particular ?
Yeah , and part of the reason we've been outplayed is the chinese are playing real politic . That's the only thing they would . They would do , period . You know , china is not , uh , advertising itself , as we have the solution of marxism , leninism , maoism , that that they're not selling that they , they want , they want to sell refrigerators .
They , they want to sell EVs , which they want to sell economic growth for themselves .
Exactly and to and to turn . You know the you know . I've been reading a lot on this in Chinese history and you've studied Chinese history too . You know the China doesn't want a bunch of colonies , and they you know too . You know the China doesn't want a bunch of colonies , and they you know .
Uh , beijing is never going to be London , where all the former colonials have have gone and you go to . You know London now , and it's majority is people mostly from the , from the empire . Beijing doesn't want to be 50% made up .
You know it's funny . You should say that because , if you look at the history of China and you go back to the warring states period this is , you know , a couple of thousand years ago the equivalent of the British Commonwealth is what was created in the Qin Dynasty , which was bringing together all the warring states into one place .
So at that point in time that was what their model was . But now we kind of forget that . Right now there's one kind of Han Chinese you know ubiquitous block . But at one time it was , it was that .
And it . But it also had vassal states as opposed to colonies , which are exhausting to maintain , as Europe found out . You know , even you know I would imagine that you know we really have . We benefited from the Philippines and Puerto Rico . You know , I'm not so sure those are the best decisions we ever made . Alaska was a much better one .
But I would say look , you have a world situation in which you know the sort of this ancient culture that has really been there . We're competing against those people . Those people are not talking about a rules-based order , about a rules-based order .
They're talking about arrangements with other countries that benefit themselves and , you know , in some cases benefit the other countries . I mean , you know , as one of our guests , walter Russell Mead , said , you know the African government will say well , you know , we go to the West , we get a lecture , we go to China , we get an airport , you know , and , and .
So we are being outplayed and and and . You know , and it wasn't so long ago that during the AIDS crisis , president Bush really became very popular and really addressed the issue in Africa . We don't , we don't seem to have that anymore . We don't have , you know , we maybe make ideological comments , we apologize and say , oh , I'm so sorry .
You know , our guests have been saying like , you know , they give a speech in South Africa and the first , you know , 20 minutes , is apologizing . Meanwhile the Chinese are making deals . You know , we are certainly being outplayed and I think , if anything , I think there is a sort of intrinsic sense in America .
I don't think foreign policy is the big driver in America , but there's an intrinsic sense that we're being played and that what Trump ? For all the things that are terrible about him , he doesn't want to be played about him . He doesn't want to be played and and he doesn't want the United States to to .
You know , to be played by by , you know , by whether it's , you know , islamic terrorists or or the , or the Russians , or the Chinese , you know , um , he doesn't go there and say , well , you're a horrible regime that's repressive and does all these terrible things . Okay , I , you know , that's the world that that we grew up in .
You know when , when the united states was in its infancy , you know , one of our great allies was czarist russia . You can't , you can't , find anything more different from american ideals than czarist russia . But czarist Russia supported us against the English , so we're going to be- .
My father used to have a wonderful expression , so I ain't neat . So , okay , let's get people a chance to imbibe , go for their second glass of wine or another beer , and let them go into the new year and have a great time with it . But let's sum it up so we call this thing . We're now going into our fourth season .
Wow we , which is amazing to think about that . Thank you very much , listeners for and viewers for listening to us . We appreciate your , your indulging us in our rants . But we started this out with the notion that the world was becoming more futile .
Not futile , although sometimes we kind of wonder that , but futile in the sense of feudalism had had certain characteristics . So are we ? We're less futile this year than the last year .
You know . I think that let's just say we're now facing the crisis of feudalism . I think that let's just say we're now facing the crisis of feudalism .
The feudal system as we saw it was a group of very powerful people , most particularly on the tech side , were able to manipulate society and seem to be , and they may still , in the long run , win the conflict .
What this year has been about , and , I think , the coming years , is the struggle of the third estate in the old French sense , everything from the working class to the small business owner .
These are the people who have decided to rebel , and what's exciting to watch from a historian's point of view is it's happening in Germany , it's happening in France , it's happening in the UK , it's happening in the Netherlands Triumph of the bourgeoisie , or at least a rebellion of the bourgeoisie and certainly of the middle and working classes .
I think that's the big issue , and the big issue for both President-elect Trump , but also for Maloney in Italy , wilders in the Netherlands , some of the more conservative governments that have been elected in Europe , the new conservative government in Korea .
They're going to really have to figure out how do we meet this challenge that's coming from Russia , china , iran , north Korea , and do we have to play the game ? Maybe a little bit differently , a little bit less ideologically and a little bit more practically .
Well , Joel , it's been a pleasure this year to be doing the podcast with you . I look forward to doing it again next year . Happy new year to you and your family . Happy new year to you , and we hope it is a prosperous , healthy and peaceful one . Thank you for being part of the Feudal Future podcast .