you listen to strictly business podcast with Lindsay Williams haven't spoken to my next guest since around about early to mid-february I think it was and he's been very vocal on social media about the current situation when it comes to covid-19 coronavirus and to the way the two governments and people are treating this particular pandemic has it's called his name is Russell Lambert is the founder of ATM macro advisors Russell been very worried about this since you got a bit of
a bee in your bonnet the lens is good to be with you again I think that we've taken a very very radical course of action you know global lockdowns and particularly the kind that we experiencing in South Africa which is extremely draconian I just think it is a radical treatment for a problem that's clearly clearly significant I think I think the more data that comes out weird getting a better no on on the scope and scale of wood covid-19 is and I think the good
news is that while it's clearly nasty it's it's not as it's not as bad as as a regional affairs you know let us to believe and I think that that even if you might justify early lockdowns as as a precautionary approach I think we've got sufficient evidence now to to suggest that that they can and must start being lifted very very quickly because I think that we are starting to create unimaginable unintended consequences from the macroeconomic Outlook calamity that's that's now
emerging and so that really is my is my position I think that that we need we need to continue with the sensible disease risk management and have a much better idea of who the high-risk group is now given the date that we see we don't know everything aspirus I Grant you that we certainly have a much clearer picture that the picture that's that's far less clear is just how bad is locked down to going to get for not just regular you know Employment and income statistics
but who will quality in a 4-foot for poor people particularly in South Africa who are I think coming to a point of real desperation now and I would like to see much more proactive opening up again and the sensible so Dave risk management protocols so so that's that's the Bee that I've got in my bonnet I think we doing some real damage as I think we are I mean what you're doing is sensually is playing the macro-environment the macroeconomic environment and
economic futures a vs human life now how do you do that do accept them that if we do completely abandon the lockdown scenario then there is going to be some Collateral Damage we just have to live with it or rather die but that I think this is like Lindsay I don't think it's economy vs life I think when you have dramatic lockdowns like with seeing and you trust people into joblessness you trust them into hangar 22 in the west coast is severe malnutrition and poverty you
talking real mortality based problems here you're talking about increased risk of tuberculosis be talking about significantly increased risk of all the kinds of diseases that are associated with poverty higher child mortality higher infant mortality so I I don't accept that it's it's a sort of taking Collateral Damage on the tintype situation I think we're creating tremendous Collateral Damage and I think that the evidence that we have up until now suggested
that the trade-off is between very old very sick people by and large of the overwhelmingly vs you know I think many many probably you know two orders of magnitude more very very vulnerable young people now who have to have their their their whole lives ahead of them I think I think we're making a very very risky and ill-advised trade off here so I think it's like slides vs light as I say and I think that policymakers probably haven't fully thought through what the risks
that are now creating through unintended consequences and answer now now no one is on this incident and no one is perfectly present and so I would say that the risk management principle is not necessarily to make enough for a single policy maker to make the perfect Choice and the perfect decision I think that the principal here is allowed for decentralizes much decentralized risk management possible allow people to work allow them to work safely allow them to
manage their risk of catching the virus to treating the virus still earning a livelihood to put food on the table for their families everyone faces a different stack of risks and in this equation everyone is extremely different all regions of different groups of different stuff so I think that that the principal here is to devolve risk management back down to the local and business and family and individual level to cool to do that the wrestler so that's when I grew up
in in England today was educated at the state school they would be a class of between 30 and 40 kids and they be little Lindsay not particularly doing that world and Little Russell doing extremely well but unfortunately they couldn't say Russell you're such a you're such a brat champ we going to tailor our education system towards you and Lindsay you're a dunce did we gonna tell if a half-hour system differently than we would with with with Russel if you see what
he meant he has to be able to put a blanket approach and just like that has to be I suppose a blanket approach when it comes to this this virus until we learn more about it I disagree I mean I think that's what we're actually learning is that is that complex risk management requires anything but a blanket approach and to the extent that you or your analogy is that all applicable to the situation it shows the shows the weaknesses of public schooling in it doesn't show
strength of public schooling that shows that public schools often did it wrong that they apply you know the same approach to the to the wrong people to one of the reasons why private schooling and homeschooling is is is so much more popular for District Lindsay so if this was 45 years ago and I do agree with you but I agree that the education system When I Grow Up was completely inadequate because people weren't guided towards the skills that they have they
weren't they weren't tested people didn't pull me aside in sale in zero-g quite good at this but you're absolutely crap at this but anyway I'm going I'm just using the analogy and I don't see how the government can I get your point and you and I and I get coming from III as a staff stated my position I think I think what we're seeing is that you know a farmer in the Karoo and a street trader in Soweto and you know the Rural Eastern Cape weather in the Cape Town
sea point middle-class person these people all face very very different realities very very different risks some of them are at risk of dying from this virus because they're the Hips very old with with their significant other illnesses some of them are Young and Healthy and but Pro and they need to get to work and I need to to be able to earn income for their families everyone faces radically different choice sit here and I and I just think that blanket policy
for 60 million people of 300 million people of 1.3 billion people I mean it just doesn't fly as a real world risk management strategy and and I just hope I mean I'm pessimistic about this but I hope that the lessons we learn from all this is that we can't just a react with sheer panic at the site of the first sight of any any enemy and be that we that deficit for complex things we have to just accept that we don't have all the answers and he said he don't have
all the answers are decentralized level we can't keep relying on one or two men who we may or may not like he lead countries have to get us out of the complex problems in society is far far more textured and nuanced than that and I'm concerned that people are running to Central government once again and haven't learnt the lessons of the past in an hour and potentially making a very big mistake again now and then on the present I'm just really is an imperfect situation that
we have pretty agree that South Africa for example cuz that's what you're focusing on the moment as a proud South Africa is well as South African is pretty that way it is that we need a bespoke a TaylorMade approach so for example you open up and you've got a badge and says well I'm healthy and I've been tested so I can come in and have a drink in there some old sick person who has got a difference for the badge and his may be vulnerable that person can't come in I
don't think we have the resources to apply the bespoke approach Russell well now I think we don't have the resources to apply is what we doing right now then see we don't have the resources to police 60 million people in the draconian fashion South Africa is called that the entire military at a cost of 5 billion in expected that'll probably gross things are very sticky and white unwind very easily if we defend 5 billion Rand on immediately upscaling our hospital
in infrastructure building temperature silicone and we wouldn't need a military to to enforce the draconian and locked out I don't think we have the resources at all at all for what for what we're trying to figure we shutting down the economy and with diminishing supply with diminishing a pool of wealth the government can therefore draw on 222 management process we now have to feed the government now is to feed hundreds of thousands made in millions of
people and talking resource constraints that where your resource constraints are the other side of the equation is is creating very simple terrible sensible risk protocols and allowing businesses to open up and on and operate and innovate around those and the question is how do you close the how do you administer that you're not like you administer every other every other rule in the country in perfectly yes but remember that most law enforcement happens by citizens themselves
people observe what businesses are doing the Whistleblower on businesses that are breaking the rules agreed and you can have age restrictions on on most activities that involve public gatherings United people above a certain age 48 the timer for June at Le can't participate in those activities there are many ways to do kind of skin this cat and I just think that the approach should be taken as is the real resource crunch we don't have the resources to do what we doing
in South Africa is very taccone and I mean it I was astonished when they think it was something like 73000 troops will call up I don't know how many have managed to get onto the street but I don't quite understand that one do you think them from what you just said that you would assign responsibility to the individual and other words we become good at self-regulation I think there's many layers to this Lindsay I don't think it's about individual vs state I think it's the
end of the show into individual but it's also family is also your your Suburb and your community issue it's the institutions of life that exists outside of the purview of the state you know it's it's it's educational institutions it's all that it's it's all of life as businesses you know if we we I think had this assumption that only the state can I see the risks be quantified lemon instead of identify how bad they are done and then she kind of implement in at the strategy
that that everyone has to follow and the truth is that that all these other institutions can manage risk extremely effective in that the private sector in many respects shows how how well it can manage risks we have specialised risk management Industries know if you're around insurance and then the actual industry there are many many Solutions and many many different ways of approaching problem and that's precisely how complex problems should be approached
from different angles by many different smart people what we have done instead it is we've centralised a few people around the presidency were making very very opaque decisions and if they get one decision wrong it's it's kind of ruined it for everyone that's a huge gamble this is radical stuff that I think Lindsay is is far more moderate and essentially decentralizes the risk and in it and it makes a fellow proud and far less likely to have a calamitous are come in my room so
you create a ministerial position and you are at the forefront of the candidacy and you are going to be the clovered 19 Minister or potentially what would be your portfolio what would you say to Bedminster ramaposa how would you go about it compared to what the aliens theme of done I think the first thing you've got the glue is that what you don't know and you need to sell them here that coming out of government-to-government rustic project I suppose and an
order of omniscience you need to you need to talk about what you don't know and what you cannot achieve and therefore why is best achieved outside of the purview of government and I think what the government can do as as an administrative function as a as a as a function that administers rules and law and justice and all these things is I think in a in a in a different type of way that's the fed by the best data that that's coming out of the global situation is to come
up with tolerable parameters around which people can then invite themselves and manage their own risks so you know it might be for example that there's a very few set of very simple rules like a like age restrictions as an age age cats on on who can participate in certain events search density cats on on factories or on certain kinds of economic activity or on travel for exam even even under these sorts of Rules I believe that the airline's could open up
again the Airlines could operate it may be that if you're over a certain age you don't get to fly it may be that the airplane or less filled with people but I think that that ultimately you can make some very simple parameters and then you allow the allow the private sector to allow free Society to the nearest from there and then you administer that under due-process without making all these new set of ham-fisted rules and regulations and I think since the
start of the lockdown situation Lindsay we've gotten about 500 new pages of rules and regulations and I can promise you now that not all about it 500 pages will disappear when this is all done yes I do think that the government to serve around the world are not using it but certainly are going to take advantage of this current situation if for example in Russia that the amount of scrutiny that Russian citizens around at the moment won't disappear once covid-19 is
over that's an extreme of it just in case you do become the minister of the coronavirus could you please could you please make the trade restrictions for people over 60 thank you whatever holiday at some stage in my life I don't trivialize will be trite or dismissive of of what's what's happening at the moment but I do find it fascinating when it comes to the potential investment trends when it comes to social behaviour when it comes to stupid things like
for example you haven't had your haircut for 5 weeks or so do you go back to your old haircut or do you grow your hair long do fashion trends change the social trends change importantly does human behaviour changed so they don't go to work 5 days a week before days a week you only go to work one day way to say hello to a couple of people and then go back to find this prospect absolute flooring guy literally no million-dollar maybe billion-dollar question I think
I think the day you know depending on how long this lasts and depending on how long we off I guess in this posture of Fear or cracked posture of of of defensiveness around around health risks yeah this is I think I maybe some fascinating little micro trains that are going to merge and it's just really hard to pin down exactly with his honour and a lot smarter than me you're probably thinking very hard about some the stuff and jumping into some of these trends early but
am I do I do think about Alyssa think at the bigger picture for me I'm not I'm not sure the coronavirus is a is itself a a very significant trend changer as much as much as I think it is a trend accelerator so I have a feeling that that the trend that were in place and some of the big things that were in play store all that were trending in place how to craft a virus might have been accelerated by it I just think of one example is he being being that we we know
we were in a world that was trending more towards nationalism and more A restrictive travel at border crossings all these things were employed not only in the US in the UK but it's rearing its head throughout Europe as well and I think what's really interesting about this is if anything this is going to accelerate the trend like that it's going to make people a little more wary of just letting you know anyone into the country it's going to probably be an
accelerant barriers if you like going up around the world and certainly there's been no love lost between the US and china over this kind of virus but again it's an accelerant of a trend that was already in play some example we had central banks looking to drop interest rates print money coronavirus has accelerated the trend in incredibly and is made of examples of given and I'm sure someone really smart to give an example of where a trend may be changing in
may be turning around I'm sure that you're probably also there lurking somewhere but I think paint accelerant is a good way to think about the same in the obvious one is home deliveries I mean it's it's it's so simple and so obvious and you see the Amazon share price going to all-time record highs despite the rest of them are being under little bit of pressure but I mean it's almost too obvious for that to be a trend accelerants although it wasn't place has been accelerated of
course well it's certainly not obvious than in South Africa Lindsay because I think with the only country in the world where e-commerce remains band spirit thought I don't understand that one and I don't understand can show me something is your alcohol alcohol and cigarettes banned in South Africa I don't quite understand that is that because of social social unrest or something I think it's I think it's good old South African you know paternalism you know the masses can't be
trusted with booze and Fugs you know and I think it's more of this sort of Petty Petty bureaucracy what's the NCR lapping up and in many ways you know replicating from the from the bad old days so I just think I think it's we getting more of the same I mean I mean the the ban on e-commerce is to my mind like I can get my head around the arguments for banning alcohol I disagree with it but I can sit up here hear the arguments and I don't I don't hear
the arguments on e-commerce if you disallow people from going and buying clothes for the looming winter in South Africa but you then also disallowed him from getting them delivered to the house which is about the safest way I can think from a virus perspective of buying something will Chris adjust adjust beggars belief II you know and and internet for the only explanation is sheer pettiness and and the power trip that these bureaucrats are on and I and I and
I think there's a lot to be said for that I think we're seeing a real honest power trip here in South Africa okay I'm having too much fun to curtail this Jack Russell so I told me for the next few minutes and give me some Wisdom love you all from outside of the borders of the Republic of South Africa and let's look at couple of other countries for example of the United States of America with the United Kingdom or even Italy how do you think they've
handled it given the demographics in the difference in Economic and socio-economic profiles yeah great question I I think that's what I am happy about is that countries have taken different paths in in dealing with this we got the Sweden approached the Taiwan approach is similar we've got the the United talion in Spanish approach is Germany's a little bit different the UK was the dove flowerland in contrast and America is is kind of quite unique as well in the in
that it has this very federalized system this very federalized response so you've actually got the different states within the United States and taking very different decisions around the Nether lockdown response and soap as a general comment I think it's really good that we've got these different different approaches because because we going to get some good data from it that sounds very cold and clinical but I think it's going to help us learn some some important as
we go beyond that's what we seeing I think in the data up until now and of course you know it's it's a it's a minefield out there just a tad bit but I would say that if he had to pull back the lens what you seeing across all these countries is that the approach that everyone has taken whether it's it's hard lockdown immediate lockdown delayed as the Sweden approach which is very very little how many kind of lockdown bit more social distancing it seems to be
that the that the outcome for the spread of the disease and for Death is by-and-large quite similar if it doesn't seem to have a huge impact now that you know that might change we made it more clarity on that on that date as we go through time but I think that's an interesting for the first conclusion that was starting to see from the from the date is that it doesn't really matter that much and and and I think it's another question is I suppose what does
matter because we are seeing we are seeing some countries experiencing very high death rates like Italy like Spain portions of the United States like New York City and even worse than Italy it's mostly up in the North Sea known Lombardi says scary very very very regional specific which is Which is kind of a bit of a head-scratcher as well and I guess I guess but the one thing we do know is that is that a better and and and underlying illnesses and comorbidities is it is
a huge Factor so so what I will say is this Linda the final comment on this is letting these different approaches there for my conclusion at this stage is with these different approaches aren't really making that much of a difference from a from a virus so did epidemiological perspective but they certainly are making a difference from an economic perspective and what was interesting to see was in the month of March we saw vehicle sales collapse across the whole of Europe with
you're talking Spain or Italy which were obvious ones but even a place like Austria France and Germany a country that gets so it's a vehicle sales numbers and therefore as a proxy for Economic activity holdups till 4 but hold up far far better than everyone else was intact Sweden and what is not surprising they haven't shut down so so so what what's going on here is this Sweden may may be moving into a situation where there virus outcomes are no worse than their than the Peer
group but that their economic outcomes are certainly better and I think that could be a very very telling of data point when this is all said and done to just finish it because Australia is lifted its restrictions probably more than most think business has gone back to 40% of what it was before it goes back to your point about individuals self-regulating so people can go and do what they used to do but they're choosing not to at the moment and I live in the Netherlands
right now and I found a hotel the other day and I just wanted to get some anecdotal evidence of what's going on I thought maybe the rates have gone down from 159 to maybe 30-40 years and night just to get their people through the door but not a bit of it in fact they've gone up a little bit and wool 5 weeks ago I find this particular hotel in the manager said we've got one room occupied at the moment now I spoke to them 3 days ago and said what's the update he said we should
have got 50 rooms because the Dutch people are so fed up with not being able to go out to a restaurant that they're booking a room at a hotel just for a night in order to get a meal delivered to their room from the kitchen to the sofa that we can is the sort of person didn't micro-trends that tell me that something is going to happen just very final question I promise it is the last one I spoke to somebody who says we gonna go back to normal life as soon
as the restrictions are lifted other people are saying no this is changed everything where do you stand that left right or somewhere in the middle yeah I did at risk of the risk of being at the fence but I I I do kind of feel it initially will look look like something in the middle there I think that there's no doubt there's no they say that that everything gets lifted and we go we click our fingers and we go immediately back to where we were I agree with you on that
that's very very improbable and where does the saying you're seeing signs of that in Austria an intern in practical in the Netherlands very strange kind of things going on so I don't think we go back to normal immediately but equally I think that the people who say this changes everything you know that this Changes Everything crowd I think I was taking it I think that's overstating the case I think it's potentially Changes Everything to the extent
that perpetuates government's right and government's ability to to civilian significantly control how Society behaves in the kind of things we can do a one of the things I'm worried about for example we know we still post 9/11 the ramping up of airport security post covid I can only imagine what a nightmare airports are going to become in terms of not only in Judy feelings but then health screenings and phone calls travel I think it is one of the areas where we gonna see
this change you know most lasting and most frustrating probably I think it's going to be very very onerous and ends in an unenviable to travel now to move through these busy airports I think it's going to be a bit of a nightmare so so that you know that those books of various concerns me and I suppose there's a few more that I do worry about I think it'll take us a few months to get over but normal life can resume you know the biggest the biggest thing for me is that
people have to demand and and fight for their their civil liberties again when all this blows over the last thing we want is to be left with very very overbearing sort of soft tyranny that's a real concern I have and I hope that people can spot that risk and and try to resist that listen to eat in the words of the poet Robert Frost very very simple statement he made life does on WhatsApp thank you so much for your wisdom server celebrity the founder of
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