S11 Ep. 2 "Western Conference Over/Unders"

All right, welcome to Fastbreak Breakfast NBA Podcast. My name is Keith Parish and I'm here. Once again with my buddies through the miracle of computer phone, here with Dave DeFour, Dave, how are you? Fantastic. Good morning. And that voice you just heard was John Burr. John, welcome back for Season 11 Episode 2 Western Conference. Best-earned Conference Over-Unders. How's your day been going?

Truly best-western this time. It's been a good day. It's already been a long day, but just preposterous, but that's how life goes sometimes. But I did eat breakfast, Bajou. Wow, just get right into it. Right into it. What's your breakfast, John? I ate it in a place called the Red Rooster and I had the Red Rooster, which strangely is not a chicken meal.

Okay. A country hand meal. No problem with that. I made inquiries. I made inquiries and I could have substitute chicken if I felt that passionately about it. I basically found out from not too nice waiter. I'm not bothered by that because the name of the restaurant isn't the red chicken or something. Sure. Seems like Rooster. I don't know if it's not Rooster.

Terry Taylor invented this thing. Oh, Dave, you don't know what world you're stepping into. You're right on point. When I said I had some pop culture stuff for you, you stepped right into it. I hope it's not too pop, man, because as you know, I basically watched basketball and movies from the 90s. Oh, man, movies from the 90s. We didn't know how well we had it. Oh, we did not. When Wesley Sniper was cooking, that was when life was good. We always bet on black.

I think I've said it many times under siege would be an art film. It came out today. It would be like, it would win like eight Oscars. And back in the day, it was like, this is kind of a fun just entertaining action movie. And now you're like, this has nuance. Yeah. Pastor 57 being exactly an hour and a half long. Right. It's like it's a movie that just gets in, gets to the beats, gets to the parts from the trailer that you were excited to see.

Like really fat. Ah, by the way, only way it could be more perfect. It was 57 minutes long. I think under siege has multiple Oscar winners in it. Well, I'm dying for Pastor 58. I would say almost everyone who is an under siege that hasn't won an Oscar. I know. I'm going to be the better person for the more. Erica Alina coming out of the cake, seminal moment and I'm going to moment for lots of people.

Breaking news. Trey Murphy has signed an extension with the Pelicans. A team we're going to talk about today. The Pelicans also Moses Moody got a little extension done for the Warriors. Another team we're going to talk about today. So John, where did your breakfast? You had the red rooster Dave. What was your breakfast? You know, I'm still in the oatmeal. O meal pumpkin goat meal. Sounds good. Mag cinnamon.

Close. You know, I'm like broken. Don't don't fix it. Right. I've been adding almond butter though. There you go. My breakfast very simple plain Cheerios, no milk, some sliced up strawberries. I don't feel good. I'm sick. I'm actually not going to work today. This is sort of work. I'm not leaving my house to go to work, which is bad because I don't get paid money if I don't go to work.

It's a gig economy lifestyle. It's like, oh, yeah, things are good. I'm making a lot of money. As long as I'm not sick. And now I'm sick. And so I think there's like no way to win because there's like two. There's a gig economy. And then there's like, I don't know if you guys have ever had a job like this for it's like unlimited vacation. Oh, yeah. No one that means is better than vacation ever go on vacation. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

Well, it's unpaid leave. Yeah. Yeah. Essentially. I've seen the I've seen the articles. I've never in my life had paid vacation. So I wouldn't know anything about it. But I've definitely read the articles about how the scam of unlimited vacation. It's like, yeah, it's a scam. If you take it, when people say I have some upcoming PTO, it always takes me like 15 minutes to figure out that means paid time off. I'm like part time officiating.

I'm kind of parent teacher organization. I just can't get there. It's just it's never going to sit well with me. Although I want it desperately. So we're moving quickly, which is probably good since we have a big show. Got to cover 15 teams in the Western Conference. So those were our breakfasts. Let's go ahead and get into it after our breakfasts come our breakfast in bed. Apologies. This is our chance to make right. Well, we might have gotten wrong in a previous episode.

It's frequently the first time we talk about the NBA, which the show is about. It doesn't have to be just about the NBA again. We're just a few minutes in. I don't mind making more small talk, but there are some things we could have for I'll go with one Sabrina Yanescu. I was not familiar with your game. Oh, for 19 for 19 for 19. I think it's actually pronounced I an S.C. House. I I had the game on mute. I'm trying to get I'm trying to jump on the bandwagon with everybody.

W and B.A. Just completed their season massive season for the league absolutely exploding in popularity. I'm like, I'll just say to 60 overtime. I'm like, this is a winner. Take all finals game. Yeah, I'll watch this. I had it on mute though. And I I randomly look up. And I see the graphic on the screen. And it's like, you know, S.C. Oh, for 13. And I was like, Hey, now. Oh, for 13 in a deciding finals game of one of the only players I've heard of. And it was what in entertaining mentality rock.

I mean, finishing one for 19. It was shades of this box score. I've seen many times. This is before I was born. But Dennis Johnson of the Seattle Supersonics infamously went over 14 in a game seven. The sonics lost to the bullets. And I've always been like, Oh, for 14. And it came. That's the performances where the Boston Celtics can then trade for you for pennies on the dollar. Yeah. I mean, they got a discount. They got a great player. But I was just I was just.

I was just take a logo shot while being like over eight. She hit a deep one tomato maker was at one for 15 to one for 14. One for 19, right? But then she finished one for 19. I was stunned. Also this W may final. Yeah, waiter. Dion, waiters. Oh, for 30. I mean, it was John Stark's tribute. It was you can imagine Darryl Mori filling out with a binder. The report that says technically based on analytics that they won the game. Oh, well, if we met if we're going to go there, let's go there.

Yeah, it's got robbed here. They come on. It's a job. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, New York is not really that important guys. Like Brianna Stewart, not only does she take a hop skip and a jump with the basketball before there's ever any contact. That was a clean block. I had a believable watching watch that replay and not River. And now listen, the Minnesota. I'm not a fan. I like that team and I just was rooting for him. It was fun. All of us are total casuals just too

to watch the finals. And I would not believe that could not believe. I know I watched a lot of W and B. I have watched a lot of W and B. But I'm just a fan. I'm just watching that. The fact that it didn't reverse that. Oh, my God. The NBA is so jealous. I'm not a fan of that call right there. Man, that was just in our face. Well, what they should have done. I learned a lot of football. You throw trash on the field until they reverse the call.

It's insane. The commissioner is here called in the post game. Award ceremony was wearing a New York dress of the city skyline, which is feels untoward. Right? Did she make a wardrobe change? Maybe she had a lake costume or was she gonna dress as a murderer? She had a she had a lateral spree well old Milwaukee yacht dress that she was going to come out shaking KJ quarterless among sex boat, Fred

Smoot, sex boat. The travel, the uncalled travel. Now we've seen this before in the last two minute reports where I'm pretty sure if there's a last two minute report, it would have said she ball the ball. That's always the out where the referees are like, oh, yeah, she juggled the ball. But it was a it appeared to be a blatant travel.

The thing about the defender not being in a legal guarding position. I as a referee defender. I didn't see it. Also, it seems like so many of the NBA's foul challenges and things that they start going into this the incidental contact didn't really affect, you know, the rhythm balance, whatever, it looked like the defender

beatered in a spot. And there was no hand contact. It was just hip to hip contact. I was I was very surprised. Yeah, it was a tough. You know what you know what they say. Yeah, controversy creates cash. And this is why a man tie replay in general. Oh, yeah, imagine if they just make the call. The broadcast shows the replay the referees are safe. Hey, we just you know that miss it in real time. We don't have the benefit of replay.

Like you guys do at home. We did our best. And this is what we got. And then we're still doing the same complaint thing, but without them rubbing our nose in it. So kill the replay. My wife was reading a book while I had these sports on. And it came down to that final like five seconds. You know, I'm like, Hey, I was like, look, it's five seconds to go for the title. And she says, I didn't know you liked this sport. And then I like, but look five seconds to the title. So she looks up.

That's a good question. So yeah, no good fair point by her. Um, the she looks up and is like fine. I will watch this sort of interesting play. But then it goes into a multiple minute replay review back it back into the book.

He's like, well, I don't know clearly who could possibly care enough about this to sit through multiple minutes of replaying the call. Anyways, speaking of controversy, Dave, last episode. I don't know if you've had any feelings about maybe the most repeated thing that you said that's been repeated to me over the last week.

No, what did I say people are coming out of my work about your two buyers. Yes, people are coming out of the woodwork being like, Hey, man, that coach, I coach Dave, relaxed to buy his hairs. I mean, it isn't even that I like to buy his hair so that much. It's just the rest of those guys are not nearly as good.

So yeah, the ultimate arbiter of truth is where are these players drafted in fantasy and Tobias Harris is going before those guys we named Keith. I think we have to see the other thing about fantasy drafts. I don't know why Tobias Harris would go ahead of Kate, cutting him and anybody's fantasy draft. Speaking of fantasy draft, John, I participated in four fantasy drafts this year.

My apology sorry, you're apology could be both you and Dave were part of the negative fantasy league, by the way, huge thank you to all the patreon supporters. We had 40 people. We have 40 people in this year's negative fantasy. I lowered the rosters down from from 10 to 9 because I thought I thought drafting 400 players was excessive. But yeah, you can apologize for one not being in the draft and also neither one of you correctly setting your auto draft order.

I had to manually change every one of your picks because it was going by average opposition, not fantasy. In my defense, I thought that when I ignored your text about the I believe that was me saying, please delete my team. No, I now see the air of my way. And we can't go from first of all, the goal was to get 40 teams. I'm not voluntarily going back down to 39 also 39 creates the unbalanced schedule would have been a nightmare. I mean, I get it. I just.

If I know you were trying to, if I had known what these rosters were going to look like after you showed me your team, I would have talked you out of this. So we're split it into two leagues or something. So did one negative fantasy draft. I did three normal fantasy drafts and did you did your marriage get a no old after this? Like how did you.

Has it been off? It hasn't been a great week. But the the enthusiasm that I'm sensing makes me nervous because, John, in all three of my fantasy drafts, where there were a fair number of grizzly spans. The auction prices for John Miranda, we're not very high. I thought this is sky high enthusiasm for the comeback. This guy went for like 60 70 dollars in previous fast break breakfast listener leagues. He's going for modest like 34 dollars.

That's just a normal rate. There's a Zach 80 market correction. How do you spend 60 dollars on jobs? I ended up with Jeren Jackson Jr. in multiple leagues. I was like normally I can't get my grizzly splares. Although in one league, De Anthony Melton was, are you? Was not in a month. No, De Anthony Melton was nominated like 10th and Kyle Anderson was nominated 13th. So that part of doing a listener league. We're all like, oh, these people like the same guys. I like Derek Rose goes out.

Finally, my apology, I do have an apology earlier this year when we did our butter or parquet previews for the Western conference. I had a controversial. This is yet more controversy. I had a controversial question. I was asking Dave about the Dallas Mavericks and I said, how sure are we that Clay Thompson at this point of his career is significantly better than Tim Hardaway Jr.

And that's just an offensive question. And it was probably born out of my hatred or just being a hater of Clay Thompson. It was a dumb thing for me to say because in the preseason, junior only made 17% of his field goal tips, which was significantly worse than Clay Thompson, who made 24% of his field goal tips. So huge difference between clay shooting 24% and Tim Hardaway Jr. shooting 17% so I'm sorry.

I should note Tim Hardaway Jr. also way worse than device errors. That part, that part, very true. I think now we can actually get into the over unders, not a lot more to hit. I would say if you want to support this program, get access to bonus content, play in our fantasy leagues and also join the Slack channel. You do all of that at patreon.com sign up over there patreon.com slash fast break breakfast. All right, it's now time for the Western conference over unders. This is the 11th time.

John and I have done these over unders. We're very excited to continue doing them. Before we get going, just a list of our bonafides, our record of picking against the over unders in previous seasons, all time records, John, you are 171, 120 and three. I am 165, 126 and three. But the true magic is when we put our heads together.

Whenever we have two thirds, people pick one side in the history of our show, we have a 186, 113 and three record. That is a 62.9% winning percentage, which is very good. Whenever we are unanimous on our picks, 84 and 40. That's a 67.7% win percentage. I would also like to say over the past six seasons, I am 60, 29 and one on just the Western conference.

So I've been killing it on the Western conference. I've been awful on the Eastern conference. So with that preamble, let's go about the Western conference. I kind of wanted to go reverse alphabetical to mix it up. But then it turns out alphabetically all the worst teams are at the end. So I don't know. Should we should we start with the jazz or should we start with the Mavericks? Dave, what do you think?

Let's start with the jazz. Okay, reverse alphabetical. It is. So the Utah jazz right now, I'm going to say what I predicted their wins to be. And then I'm going to give you the Vegas over under in previous seasons. I did not have any idea what the overrunners were going to be this year. I'd seen many of them, although some of them still surprised me. Anyways, I picked the jazz to win 31 games this year, which turns out is a massive over their over under is 28 and a half.

Everyone believes that they're just going to shut it down again. I kind of think they're going to get to 31 wins before they shut it down. What do you guys think? John, what's your feeling on over or under 28 and a half wins for the Utah jazz? I wish we'd start with any other team because I think this is the hardest one. Because I feel like they have an excellent coach. I feel like they have pretty good players, but I feel like there is an assignment here.

Yeah. And it just depends on how like fully throated we're going to approach like Danny, they had any interactor confuses me a little bit because sometimes you think that they're going to do one thing and then the next thing you know they have as a automis in our in like the playoffs. So I think I'm going to says 29 wins 28 and a half. Yeah, 29 wins is an over. I feel like they can get to 29 wins. No problem. They were 500 at home last season.

Yeah, so I'm going to take the over and then I want to pause it to Dave in the form of a of an analogous question. Dave, I'm going to compare each team to another to other athletes and other. Particularly the king of sports. If you know what I mean, I think you do. I view the Utah jazz as the job or to the stars of the NBA. Do you think that the Utah jazz are more of a blue blazer? Oh and heart type situation or more of a Brad Armstrong type situation.

Oh, see now this is a great one because I look. I think it's going to be so hard for a while. Oh and heart. Yes. A nice mid Carter. Right. Play in guy. If we're saying that at his peak. Right. So you put them into mask. You haven't gone as back. Put some guys over because he's such a great athlete and keeps them out of the play.

And I think yeah, he's there blue blazer for sure. You talk like they won 31 last year. The big thing is they just need to you know not not be in the outside of the top 10. Right. Top 10 protect the top 10 protect. Right. So they have to you know pretty much pull the plug at some point. And I think their whole goal this year is to see okay is Kianta Georgia guy.

What does Cody Williams look like? Can we move maybe move sex to you know like they're they're going to be trying to reshuffle and hoping that they can land a high lottery pick. I mean this this 2025 draft all the draft guys that I'm talking to are very into it. So I'm assuming that that Utah. This is your one right where they want to really get in there.

Get a pick and then maybe next year they're they're trying to be a play on team. So are you taking allergy. So you taking the under. I'm taking the under all these wrestling analogies are going to be useless to me. Hopefully our listeners. I find them illuminating. Yeah. I kept on hard in there because people know who he is because he died on live pay for the utility. Yeah.

Yeah. Sadly. So the weapon that Danny age can deploy beyond just benching Markin is just depending on their young guards. I mean they are starting Kianta George. If kind of George is good. Well guess what the jazz are going to win more than 28 and a half games. Maybe they turn over. So might shoot 30% for the. Yeah. And they turn over to Isaiah. Call your who also might be terrible. But it's just like they have a lot of young guards. They can play.

They have very few small forwards. A very it's a very weird roster. So I don't feel good thing. No. The West is so stacked and all of these teams. Like there's so many teams that are competing right and Utah is not going to be competing for the play. So at some point when I change my. They'll pull the play. Absolutely. I'm going to go on here also. Yeah. I mean, 30 wins and 30 wins in a tankathon is kind of a lot after a lot of 48 win teams. 49 win teams in the West.

And I don't think Utah is going to get a view of the 28. Yeah. After the jazz ruin my Grizzas watch party on Wednesday. The Wednesday night opening night watch party in Nashville Tennessee at Noble's beer hall. Once the jazz ruin that one by winning their season debut. They only have to get 27 more wins. So I feel like this is. I don't know. Oh, sorry 28 more wins. All right. So 2 thirds under on the jazz. The San Antonio Spurs. You went over Keith.

I'm sticking with my over on the jazz. The San Antonio Spurs. I will say on a lot of these over under totals. It turns out like I frequently do. I'm riding a line on a lot of them. I'm within a half game of a lot of them. I am massively, epically under on the Spurs total. I was surprised by the Spurs total. I predicted that the Spurs would increase their wins by nine and get up to 31 wins. Yeah.

It turns out seems pretty good. It turns out the over under is 36 and a half. Oh my god. This is easy lock easy. Yeah. This has to be a mistake. Here it is. If they get to 36 37 wins. When is the MVP? Yes. Okay. And the sleep. I'm going to ask you to ask me my question for you. Dave. Are the Spurs Andre the giant or psycho Sid Vicious. Oh, I'm going to say Andre. Well, then you got to go over.

That's I can't do it. That's insane. Listen, I had this. That is 10 more wins than I would have had them. But, but I had this thought the other day. I was thinking about Chris Paul. Right. He signed a $10 million deal.

That's so it's so easily movable. Didn't this feel like a year where he's there to help caretaker get him to the deadline or whatever. And then they're going to maybe move him to a contender. Like I keep thinking, wow, could OK. See just like take Chris Paul at the deadline and maybe Chris Paul gets a ring. I'm not this is not a team that's trying to win 30 games. They don't want to do that. Greg's top of a terminal year, I think. Greg Povich hasn't won 30.

He hasn't won 35 games since 2019. Come on, man. That's my Joe Biden. I mean, I know I know Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes are going to raise the competence level. Yeah. But like I don't believe in hardly any of the other players. Devin Vaselle's injured. He's supposed to come back. I think Keldin Johnson is maybe.

Can he be that bad again? Keldin Johnson is worse than Tobias Harris. I don't know. Yes. I don't see. Also, they they drafted this transformational greatest young player of all time and won zero more games last year. Yeah. They went from 22 wins to 22 wins. Now they're going to jump. Imagine if they didn't have them. Now they're going to jump 15 wins. Plus they got so many like bonus slender man blocks from the three point line plays that they're never going to get ever again.

Because now everybody knows that he's a a pair of demon. So it's just. Is that what you think? I don't think so. I think this guy. Yeah. I'm on his blocks. I'm serious. I think I think. I think I see some wild. Double is in play. But also I think people are going to retreat from him a lot more this year. They're going to do that like Jake Laravia fast break that he did last year where he just turned around and said no thank you.

Also, like you guys were saying for the jazz, the way the Western conference is stacked. And I have. I have 12 teams that I would say are legitimately good in the Western conference. And I don't think the spurs are one of them. I I have trouble conceiving how they they went 37 games. So where are you? A lot of people are a lot of people are doing the spurs could make the play and thing. And I did that as a joke during the summer like I was like playing with that idea.

Like what if Wembee just absolutely takes, you know, a leap to the moon is a top five player and that's just enough to be a play and team. No way. Our next team is the second the Kings that I do it wrong. Sacramento Kings are next. Oh, I think you said can we skip the Kings? I was like wow.

Oh, the Sacramento Kings went windless in the preseason, which I believe there is some betting correlation. I saw map more from the action network saying there actually is a correlation over the past decade based on teams that went winless or undefeated. There's a correlation between how they do against their over under a wind projections, but right now direct no. The Kings are a team that I have predicted to win 46 games.

And it turns out that's it. 46 and a half because they won like 46 45 46 last year. So 46. So they won 46 last season is worth no wins. Honestly, what if he's worth two or three and that's built in because the West is just. Yeah, let's try it. You're probably right. I like the Kings. I have a I have a glut of squads this year in my Western commerce predictions stuck right at 46 wins. There's a few 45 46 47. I think the Kings are absolutely in that glut.

I like the addition of tomorrow. Rosen. I think having deer and fox and tomorrow. Rosen to win close basketball games is actually a huge boost for them. They have no depth in the front court, which I think is is a pretty big issue. And because of that, I don't feel like how I don't see how they're going to find their way.

Or at least that it's probable they end up with the 47 48 49 wins in this sacked West. So that's why I'm just the narrowest of unders at at the 46 wins. So Dave, are you over or under? I'm under and somewhere thinking I they don't have the defensive floor that I think you need for a team that is not a super high volume three point team.

Not a I mean, they're fast pace team, but it's they're not jacking up a ton of threes and with the Rosen. That's even going to go down. Is that new because I feel like they used to be. Look, with the Rosen so bonus, right? These are two guys who are not going to be stretching the floor for you. You're going to need a lot of Keegan Murray and a lot. I mean, deer and fox is going to have to get more threes up.

That then I think you might even want them to because I want to attack in the basket. You know, I compared them a little bit to the Pacers because I do think that on any given possession, their ability to score is going to have them in a lot of games. And like you said, deer and fox and demar down the stretch, like that's that's amazing. But again, that three point variance. I'm worried it's going to work against them like not having that, you know.

John, how many wins is the like the beam gimmick worth on its own? That's my point. This team has the three best regular season implementations that you could possibly have on a basketball team. They have the light the beam factor, which has to be worth four or five wins. Yeah, they have demarter Rosen, one of the great regular season worthless players in the playoffs of all time.

And then I think I don't know if you guys have seen megalopolis yet, but I assume that game ops is going to add the John Voic quote, take a look at this boner every time. Demontos, the bonus scores. I think that's going to be worth two to three wins. So I think we're looking at a 50 win team. So you're like an easy over. All right. I just think we have a lot of regular season potency here. So in real quick, Dave, handsome Harley race, the king or Jerry, the king roller.

Oh, Harley race. I mean, you're just asking me who I liked better. Yeah, yeah, Harley race. Although I give it to the king. Great suplex. Absolutely. So I was over two thirds under on the Kings. By the way, the Kings I have right now as seventh in my Western conference predictions. So they're hosting a play and game based on my predictions.

The next team is the Portland trailblazers. They are expected to be the worst team in the Western conference. They're already missing shade on sharp for a while. Now Matisse, table is hurt. Not a big deal, but you know, part of their depth. Donovan Klingin had maybe the best rookie performance in the preseason. Something like 14 in 20 with tons of blocks and assists.

I have the trailblazers winning 23 games, which turns out is the narrowest of overs. Their over under is 22.5. I think they can win two more games than they won last year. I mean, what if I have pretty Simon's just makes it through the season. So I don't know. I feel good about that over actually, but maybe they're just going to take the whole year. And no one has done it worse than Chancy Phillips. So Dave, what's your thought on the Portland trailblazers?

Again, this is another another one of these teams where they're going to perform worse than than the roster is. Right. Like they've got a lot of guys where I'm like, oh, I like that guy. Oh, he's a good player. It's just the organizational goals getting the way. And this stuff is murky to me, right. Like it's this team they could pull the plug and it wins 18 games. Yeah, for sure. Like, Chancy can get them there, but they also could win 25 because they've got talent.

So I think this team over achieved last year. What's 21 is? Yes. Tomorrow's real. I believe in two money. Come on. I'm going to give it to you all straight. I watch blazers games. It's a weird habit that I've had for many years. This is as bad as they've ever been. And there's just nothing here. And Chancy Phillips is full caps. The worst coach in the league. Definitely. I guess I can't say full caps because then that's similar to all cap, which means I'm lying.

All right. So you're under. I kind of feel like I wonder what if Donovan Klingin just has a winning impact. And is that worth moving them from 19 to 22 wins, which is basically all we got to do or 20 to 23 wins. I don't know. I'm taking a draft of where Donovan Klingin has played has historically impacted team very much. If you throw out Derek lively ever. I think I think there's certain maybe floor razors that could possibly potentially exist.

I don't know. I don't know. But I mean, Dianne and I think has some semblance of talent. Jeremy Grant is talented. I don't think I'm sorry. This is that horrible. You know that Jeremy Grant two years ago retired from playing defense. Retired. He retired from playing in March and April two. He's got the best gig on the planet. Would you take that number? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't mind.

You realize they're not even going to start scoot because that's good. That's good. Right. No. That helps the win total. Well, you see we're getting confused on what good is here. Right. Right. Right. This is again. This is my thing. Right. I mean, I think they're going to be the worst team in the West. They're just we're just debating over the 24 win 23. I'm says what I'm saying 23 wins. It gets me there. If they're the worst team in the West, it's going to be in the teens.

Our next squad is the real quick. Oh, sorry. Are they George South or Mike Jackson greatest. The history. I got a lot of things to do. We really need to do the way you feel about the pattern, Mike Jackson greatest. The history. Um, I got it. I got to give it to my man George baby. I love George South so much. Nice is guy. Yes. Called me sweetie all the time. Oh, that's a beautiful. Oh. Sorry. Keith. Go ahead. No, it's fine. Our next team is the Phoenix. Sons. Oh. That's big. Weird.

I think they got rid of, I think that boosts them a lot. I made fun of them last year for having a half their squad look like they're an expansion squad. They got rid of all those dudes, guys who were the Naseer littles, the key to base jobs, the Utah, Watanabis. Those guys are not even in the NBA anymore. Uh, at least several of them got waived in the last few days. I think picking up ties Jones is going to boost the regular season a lot.

Like sizing David Roddy. I think, uh, you siftnerkitch lost a ton of weight. Have you seen him? He looks like Frank Kaminsky. Um, wow. Anyways, ozampic, they have more than likely. They have, of course, the injury concerns with how old Kevin Durant is with Bradley Bale with you, siftnerkitch. But I don't think it's really going to matter that much for the regular season. I think Mike Booneholtzger is going to teach him how to play and teach

him how to get some three pointers up. And I have them right now as my fifth seed in the regular season with 49 wins, which is over the Vegas line of 47 and a half. John, what do you think about the win total of 47 and a half? So you don't think you said all that stuff that sounded very positive. Yeah. But I think they had 49 wins last year. Yeah. So again, we're picking, we're picking up three teams this year in the West that I think you're good. Like the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies

are the wrench in this entire thing. The Grizzlies are picking up 20 wins this year, probably. Um, I think that is going to make it. I mean, maybe the Clippers give all those wins back more spoilers. But I still think right now, I'm fine with 49 wins. You think they're going to go higher. They're going to take even more wins. No, I kind of like I just, I felt a disconnect between what you were saying and what your number was. But now I get it

after you explained it. This is to me is the most confusing team because I do think like organizational and ownership stuff matters a lot in hoops more than like coaching, et cetera. But it's boot and holster. Goat. Yeah. And he's going to have so much fun using guys like Beale and Durant. I mean, it's, it's so perfect for what he wants to do. But then I, I, this is like a begrudging over because I don't want to give, it's kind of like how I don't

like to give Dallas credit for their off season. I don't want to give it to be a credit for his off season after they've done so much stupid stuff for so long. But I guess I'm going to go over as well. What do you think, Dave? What was the number of the over 47 and a half? Yeah, I'm going to go. I've got damning damning under or damning over. It's just a surprise. I think it's a

little bit surprising. It's one where I thought, I know what you said is, but if I can lay out the case here for the under, it's Kevin to Randry has been heard every year, right? And if, and this team needs Kevin to rent, like they have no depth whatsoever. It's, they're starting line up basically. Well, they, they still have Grayson Allen and Wendell. But he's banged up right now. But he's banged up right now, right? So he's starting out

behind Ryan Dunn might be a good player, but you know, banking on a rookie. Well, I'm just saying you're banking on a rookie being good offensively. He's good defensively, right? Like that's going to help him, but and they're going to have to play him because they're going to need some defense. But, you know, I don't look, Nurgut just really not all that good. And so I don't know, but that's the argument for under. I do think they've got the talent for 48 49 wins. Again,

in the West, they're in that mix. But one thing goes wrong for them and, you know, you can see the underhitting pretty easy. I mean, like, what if Katie just is like, you know, what's the last time Buds lost? We get a trade here. When's the last time Buds didn't win 47 games? That's a very good question. Look at the system. I mean, those blue bars getting done, some pretty putrid hawks teams sending six dudes to the Hawthorke. As soon as they leave, like those guys

are out of the league. I think they can endure. You said if one thing goes wrong, I feel like they're actually pretty well set up to endure. I think what they meant is the likelihood of multiple things going wrong. Okay, maybe. Also, the KD thing is just huge to me. I mean, again, and, you know, hit me with this when we get to the Warriors, but like, he's 36 years old. Here's a fun. Here's a fun stat, Dave. The last time Mike Boudinholzler coached a team that

won fear than 47 games, they won the NBA title. It was a short and season. They were 46 and 26 over 72 games. The last time he coached a team that won under 47 games in the regular season was the 2017 2018. Oh, no, he wasn't even there. So yeah, we're going back to the Hawks. You're right. That was that was Jason Kidd Joe Prunty joint. So yeah, good job, John. Back on the Hawks.

The sons are the sons and KD Terry Funk or Rick Flair. They refuse to go away. Oh, you know, you can't give him, I mean, Rick Flair won too many titles to say that the sons are Rick Flair. So I'll go Terry Funk although they're entertaining. Yeah, so Terry Funk. Did you plant your flag? Yeah, you got a little melee mouthed. I want to say it over. I said, makes you kind of like full sign. Okay, so we are. We are you. I thought he was going under. No, no, I was actually saying,

man, I can make the argument. Oh, that feels terrible. That's totally a button holds their pick. I believe it's I'm calling it highest Jones pick for me. I believe in this over. Well, no, no, it's a competence pick. It's just hey, you know what they have talent and they surrounded the talent with some competence, right? They are much better roster than last year. Agreed. That's what I'm saying. If it wasn't such a, this is the craziest year for offseason

makeovers that look amazing, which means that they can't all work. But like, the there's so many just like completely retrofitted remastered rosters that's kind of insane. So the next team up alphabetically is the presumed one seed in the west, the Oklahoma city thunder. The thunder have already faced some injury issues as a heart and steam is going to miss several, is it several weeks? It's like a month at least like this week. He broke his hand, right?

So they're already back to the rebounding issues they had pre-adding him. I still have, I have depth concerns and I feel like I'm the only person in the world who has depth concerns about the the thunder. When I say I have depth concerns, that's why I ended up with a slight under. I still think they're the ones seed, but I picked them to have 57 wins, which is under 57 and a half. I think when Shay misses games, they're not going to be very good. And he play, he normally plays a

ton of games, except for when they're losing on purpose. So maybe they're fine, but to get up to the 58 wins, which feels like a lot in this western conference where I kind of like 11 teams. That's why I'm riding the line and ended up as a slight under. John, you chastised me last episode for taking the unders on all the best teams. Do you feel confident with this one to continue your streak of taking the overs for all the best teams? So high number, man. It's a very high number.

I guess I'll talk out of both sides of my mouth now. Sure. I think I will take all my concerns about the thunder kind of postseason concerns though. Yeah, that's fair. And I do, I know this sounds absurd, but I think that Heart and Stein thing is enormous. Because I think it's going to make them stumble out of the gates potentially. Probably not enough to be all that 57 wins is what I have to be 157 without them. They have to win 58 wins to get to this over. Yeah, last year they won 57. I mean,

I don't act like Gordon Hayward's retirement. Sorry. I couldn't get through it. And I had a caruso. I you know what? I will go. Yeah. This is the makings of a buzzsaw. I was really pumped about like having Heart and Stein's passing and just brainpower in the lineup. But you know, honestly, probably should play center anyways. So this is fine by me. Like, that seems a little bit of a square peg round hole situation anyways, I think, but you know, I don't really know anything.

But I do like, I thought he always looked better at center. And then I do think, I really think that the Jalen Williams leap will happen and they will have, because I don't like Shay in the way I think we can have the, well, I want to get to it. It's an actual Olympic sport, the triple jump. This is his third job of his leap. This is we're going to see final form of the donco. And yeah, I'll go over even though, you know, I do think that is quite a number. But like Dave said,

they did it last year. And they, they are built to just feast on teams and they're the type of team where Heart and Stein's out or somebody's out, you know, they can have a game from one of their many myriad players, including Alex Coruso who can take over games in different ways. They have so many players who take over games that it's not fair. Yeah, they're going to have maybe the best defense in the NBA. They're going to force so many turnovers. They're going to be hard to beat.

But Dave, also do you do believe any of the like the trope about having a bullseye on their back? They will have a bullseye on their back. I think this season, more than last season, just because they're picked to comfortably easily win the West. So what do you think about that? I mean, maybe, but they also have the talent, right? Yeah, this is not like, and respect to your grizzlies. But this is not like the grizzlies who, you know, had a couple of guys and were upstart

and yapping in the playoffs. Like, okay, see, do you, were there any stories where it was like? Are you talking about the grizzlies who ended that yapping season with the second best net rating in the league? Is that the same grizzly team? Yeah. Okay. But this team last year was the best team in the West and regular season. As we, as we mentioned, I think they got better. Shay has been shooting more threes off the dribble, which I think helps them quite a bit.

Jaylen Williams. I just docked him a win for that, Dave. If he, if he takes another leap, yeah, if Shay is just getting to the basket, it will and drawing fouls and he's not really the amazing player. I pick and Shay, forgetting four stocks per game and living at the elbow jumper. I think, I think they're going to, I think I've got them at 58 wins. So you're going to take to over. You guys are both over. So two thirds over there. Do we have a wrestler, John?

Well, I think I think you made it clear. I was going to go with Terry funk. Is it stunning or stone cold Steve Austin? But I think we agree it's. It looks like stone cold. It's stone cold. It's definitely still cold. There's no stringy blonde hair. Hair man. The thing wrestlers have to do to their hair. The next team is the New Orleans Pelicans. Keith, did you know that by the entrance of where the wrestlers come out? There is a giant trash can full of water that ate each

wrestler, dunks their head in and shares. Rift disgusting. That's a ghost. That's fantastic. The New Orleans Pelicans, I don't, I guess, care that they picked up to Jean-Tay Murray. I have the Pelicans hot take alert. I guess I have the Pelicans missing the play in right now. They're my 11th seed in the West. So that makes them a comfortable under this. My win prediction is 43 wins and their over under is 46 and a half. So it turns out I didn't mean to plant my flag, but I

am way under on the Pelicans. And I would like to say to Pelicans and their fans. It's not about you. It's about other teams. There's other teams I'm quite into and you're not one about them, man. Okay. So 43 wins. They lost players that were really important to them. They, yeah. So there he dance. Junior, not there anymore. They have no center. They got Daniel Tyson. Eves Missy. I guess. I mean, Dyson Daniels is playing for the Hawks and Hawks fans think it's an upgrade. They feel like

they traded. Did you take for Tyson and won the trade? If Herb Jones stays healthy and Zion stays healthy in Brandon Ingram forgives them for everything. Maybe it'll work out, but like I think a team might be kind of bad at defense and mean my trade Murphy's out for a little bit. I have a hard time seeing them getting to like they 140 on games last year, which is honestly, I've kind of I've kind of memory hold. I don't I don't remember that like really. But yeah, I guess

I'm just down on them compared to a bunch of other teams. Marshall wins. Yeah. Not too Marshall's gone. There's your podcast. They don't have any cast. Yeah. Yeah. Yes. Yes. They don't have they don't have a regular season. God. Jonas Valentino's sitting. Yeah. That's true. So yeah, 43 wins. But do you guys do either of you think they're getting to 47 wins for the over? No, I haven't under that. I haven't met 44. Number one, like the center thing is a huge deal.

They're in their kind of small. They are like long. You don't like center herb Jones. No, I don't love that. I do over. Zion played 70 games last year. Yeah. You know, we saw what we needed to see. Let's see what happens. I don't want to, you know, put that on him. But 70. That's a lot for him. So, you know, can you count on that again? And again, I think the West is just what you've got to Grizzly's coming. The West is just better. Houston's a little bit better. Gold states a lot better.

So does that make us unanimous under? I think yes. All right. unanimous under. I feel like the pelican is either the low key or Austin Aries of the NBA. Now these are not my guys. But yeah, I would say I would say the low key. Yes. I used to love their roster so much. Everybody's into that strong style over and over again. And now I'm just like, man, Zion strong style, right? Yeah. Never caught on. Our next team, the Minnesota Timberwolves, I have the Timberwolves

as my regular season two seed in the West. But I predict a very competitive West. Once again, not that many high wind totals. I projected the Timberwolves to win 52 games. That turns out that's an under because their over under is 52.5. I have come around to really liking the Carl Entony Towns trade. My initial reactions were mainly positive. But the more I thought about it, the more I've sat with it, I'm like, I like picking up the actual role player or

just rotation guy. I mean, Dante D even since it was very, very good. He's like a super role player. But just picking up that extra guy on the wing, I feel like it's important for them, which is why I feel good about this team. But just not as enthusiastic to think they're going to win 53 games. So a 52.5 over under Dave. What do you think? I'm going to take the over. Yeah. Rudy Gobert, regular season defense. I just think that that gives you, you know, just this high floor.

We know I don't I worry about their offense and like whether or not they're going to run it. But I think the defense will have such a high floor that they'll win games. They will score. I'm not quite sure who's going to help carry the scoring load. I mean, they're expected to be going to break out from Nas Reed. Show Ingalls. Right. How about Julius Randall? Yeah. Who is not being mentioned. Yeah. You could definitely carry the score.

This is being referred to as the Dividchinzo trade right now. But also Julius Randall, like kind of fulfills a playmaking hole that they could use. You know, I hate to bring up Shlomo, but he's gone. They need another secondary playmaker. I agree. I think this is an over. I think they want a lot more games and they're over up than this number last year. Yeah. They won 56 last year. Amazing. I catch his catch and play much last year. Right. He missed a ton of games. He also sucks.

Like this is a very easy over me. I think they could win the most games in the Western conference. I think they have a good coach. I think they have a good situation here. I think it would kind of like if they don't, if they don't hit this, isn't that kind of a disaster? I don't think it's a disaster. A big disaster if they end up with the two seed. I just think it's all regances and wins are they're technically meaningless. You know, it's just basically where

where your seed is. We've had a one seed a couple of years ago that had 52 wins. So I mean, I don't have a hard time picturing like the ones in two seeds having like 52 wins and stuff like that. I guess that's always possible. Yeah. I mean, the grises with the two seed with 51 wins two years ago. 47 to 50 wins in the West is just going to like this. There's a good shot that the four seed and the 10 seed are like three or four games from each other. We're going to be going to

tie breakers. Yeah. I'm with you Keith. Like this is the most predictable unpredictable season since I started doing this. Right? Like if you think about it predictable, if everything goes according to plan and no one's injured, I could tell you what's going to happen this year. Dude, coach, that stuff happens. The champs are. That stuff happens every single year though, right? Like and so. And now like, you know, there was a big push. I don't know if you guys

saw it. The athletic. There was a bunch of people wrote about parody because when we were sitting around talking about this upcoming season, this is like the parody season. We've had six straight seasons with a different champ. So the odds are the Celtics, even though they look as dominant as any team that's won a title in the last few years, the odds are they're not going to repeat the way things have gone, you know, just with attrition. So yeah, like it does feel like 53 might be the two

seed. Yep. So we're two thirds over on the Turnbull Wolves. The next team is our, my Memphis Grizzlies and we'll get to them right after this short break. All right, John. Let's talk about our Grizzlies and then we'll invite Dave to. I don't want to try. This is it over under that had been spoiled for me. I've heard this over under. So you don't know what it is. Do you want to guess what you think the over under is for the Grizzlies?

44 games. Yeah, I would say 46. Yeah, that'd be great. They're over under is 47 and a half. That's the same as the Suns. They are consistently in every sports book and they have been for almost the entire offseason. They have the fifth best win total numbers. They have the fifth best implied odds for winning the West. The sportsbooks think are, at least they project them. They're the team that's just outside of that. Timberwolves thunder nuggets Mavericks. They

think the Grizzlies are next. John, you said 44 wins. I felt like they're over under should be right about there. I think they should have a 45 and a half maybe over under win total. I I am too close to the situation to be able to talk about rationally. A month ago, I was super optimistic about the Grizzlies and their bounce back. But since we lost Vince Williams Jr., who I thought was a regular season wins at her, he's going to come back. We think in November.

So, so he's not going to miss that many games. But right now Luke Conards hurt. Luke Conards always hurt. John Morant, healthy, Marcus Smart, healthy. Those guys battle injuries all the time. The second unit, and this is going to be a theme going forward with some of the teams we haven't hit. Yet I think when John and Jaron are off the court, by the way, Jaron missed all of preseason with the hamstring injury. I think when Jaron are off the court and they're playing some of

these other West teams, they're going to get roasted. And that bothers me when it comes to regular season win totals. They also overhauled their entire coaching staff, which is like we're installing a new offense. And it's like, I know fans spin that. Fans spin that as optimism. I spin that as, that sounds scary. So, you know what it is? What is it? It's the last domino before Taylor gets the right. So because of that, I mean, I've obviously tipped my hand. I have the grizzlies at 45 wins,

which makes them a massive under turns out. I have them tied right now for the eight to the best record. Two and a half. The overter is 47 and a half. I feel like, of course, they could get there. If John Morant plays 70 games and Desmond Bain plays 70 games and Jaron Jackson Jr. plays 70 games, but what's the probability that occurs? And then you can't endure any other injuries to anybody else on the roster. And you're already starting so short handed that it makes me nervous

about racking up these regular season wins. And by the way, they have six games in the first nine days of the season. They have two sets of back to backs. John, we're going to need your Zach Edie. We're going to need the edification to carry us. Edification is going to take a minute. So because of that, I don't like the odds of the mega 49 or 50 win team. It's possible. But with this stack Western conference, it feels more likely to me. They end up under the number

of 47 and a half. Dave, what are your non grizzlies fans opinion of that number of 47 and a half? I think that's a high number in the West. Is that Katie the rookie of the year? Yes. Yeah. And we'll take that right. No, I just think that's too high of a number in the West. The team is a little bit of a mystery to me because we just haven't seen them. Right? Like last year was the year from not even somewhere different. Like somewhere way more creative. Right? Yeah.

Somewhere much more creative. So I don't know. They are a team that, you know, I don't have a good feel for, you know, I don't think anybody else. You see a player miss a lot of a season and come back and things just aren't the same. And I'm not saying that's going to be the case with John, but it could be or, you know, or what if he's been found out? Like there's this, you know, things change so fast.

And I think players evolve on the court, obviously with play. And there's something to playing through seasons and being a different player at the end of that season and being able to grow. I just don't know how you do that without NBA competition. This isn't the guy who's like year eight who missed half a season. This is a guy who's still developing. Year six. Why is he your six? That was ever the year eight. Then you hope that he's get,

wait, just he took us a bad. Because he should be so fresh. If he misses half of year or most of year eight, it's different than missing year five. It's a big difference. Right? That did happen. He had shoulders. Because I also convinced myself that he was just chilling. John, what are your thoughts? John, you're a huge Zachy DeBeliever. What are your thoughts on the win total? Well, first of all, since Zachy DeBeliever and now I think we have another Asian

player that we just signed. We signed Yuki Kalamura who made 20 who's five foot eight and made 21 percent of his field go to him in the preseason. So Dave, do you think that the Grizzlies resemble more, I'm going to use the great Muta. How do you were going Muta? Who or who had for those for the layman, play person looked like a tantalizing world beater that was set to take the wrestling world by

storm in 1989. Or are they really just to Geary? An interesting role player who also sprays poisonous mist into their opponents or maybe shoots a laser beams into their friends eyes. I'm worried that we are to Geary. I think to Geary. I'm going to make a prediction. I think the Grizzlies have issues that can only be solved one way, the most excellent way, the way I believe in above all others when it comes to the NBA. They need to fire that coach. I thought you were going to say

cage match. I think the Grizzlies, I think the Grizzlies are going to be just good enough to probably not have to fire the coach, but there's no way I'm having them over 47 and a half. I, this is an under to me. And I actually think with the injuries to Vince Williams. And if it's not truly a completely overhauled offense, I'm super worried. Like if they are going to stick Zachy Deen the corner to fire threes, this is going to be a disaster. So Zachy Deen did have

a ton of post ups that turns out in the preseason after the first couple games. They didn't give them post ups. He's scoring a ridiculous number on those post ups. But also a big issue is the Grizzlies just shooting. They don't have three point shooting. And they're starting, they're starting multiple guys. John Marant, Marcus Smart, Jared Jackson, Jr. Those three guys over the past four

seasons, they're all 33% or worse from the three point line. And Luke can already hurt. And there is no evidence right now that a team can shoot 35 36% as a team from three. Does Yuki Kalamura shoot for three and be good. He looks amazing. Get the Olympics shooting from three, not so much in the preseason. But like last year, the only team that was any good that was

below average at three point shooting was the magic. And they lost in the first round to the Cavaliers because they couldn't score the only team I believe that was league average or worse to win a playoff series last year. It was the Cavaliers who beat the magic. The only other playoff team that was the worst three point shooting team. So just the three point shooting math doesn't work. To me, the GG Jackson Vince William injuries cascade effect was so much more dramatic than I even

imagined possible. I'm putting so much stock into Marcus Smart throwing one lob to John Marant because I don't think that they are the type of guys to play all that well together. I don't know. I have like a bad feeling. It's messing with my I think we're scoring. We're scoring. That's all you have a bad feeling. Yeah. Yeah. If you're if you're fifth starter being out to start the season has you this worried.

I think they're going to be bad at rebounding and bad at shooting. And the math doesn't work to win so bad at shooting. Yeah. They need the offensive rebounding. This has actually been like one of the things that the team was smart about was always having like Steven Adams as I go in there get a bunch of rebounds. I think I think too much is being made of like 80s preseason rebounding. I think he will be at least Steven Adams. If you use it, especially

if they use him. You just said he'll be at least the best rebounder in the NBA. No, I think I think as far as his impact to the team, like he can be that much of a plus. But I just don't have the confidence that will like regularly use him in that way. Like I think they view him more as like a special feature or a tool you use in certain situations. And that's not really going to be all that helpful. And I just there's a lot of people on the online sets. Yeah. Right.

These wildcat packages. What I want to happen, what I think are going to happen are such profoundly different things that I'm just hoping to enjoy the ride. I guess like I do think it's such a look. If you're grizzly spaying your playing with house money because you got all your toys back. And we haven't played with them in so long. We'll see how good. So, but it does feel like a collection of misfit toys to me right now. Also, John, we're on year five of John Morant,

Desmond Bain and Jiren Jackson Jr. And Jake Luravia and John Contrars. Still going to be playing on opening night. Yeah. Like see that's the stuff of the other thing, Dave. If you're a grizzly spand. You have so little faith in the people behind it that you just expect them to to cock it up. Like I don't think Jake Luravia should be a grizzly. I don't think Contrars should be a grizzly. Like, but here we are in the in meaningful minutes. Let's hit the final six teams. Maybe

we're in the weeds. Pick up our pace a little bit. The loss. The car is not parked on the street today. So we're not the Los Angeles Lakers. This this was shocking to me. Honestly, this is one of the overrunners that actually surprised me. I pick the Lakers to be the 10th team in the Western Conference. I picked them to have 44 wins. That is an over. Even with Laker fan boosts boosting the line, their overrunners 43 and a half. I don't think I've ever seen you shocked by Lakers over

before. Yeah. So like I'm a half game over. They won way more than this last year, but of course, LeBron and AD were essentially healthy all season. What do you guys think about 43 and a half? Dave, what do you think about overrunners 43? It's so low. It's weird. It's low. It's low. It's low. And they're not bad. Again, this this team is they're only going to go as far as LeBron and AD can carry them, but those guys are really good. So if they're healthy, I think that they they're

45 46 wins. Again, the West being what it is. And this is a team that in the playoffs, they get the right matchup. You can see them winning, you get in the second round. Get me, you know, the Conference finals. I don't know if they've got the shooting for, but the shooting is going to be their big concern. Although, and I don't want to say that Dalton Kineck is going to greatly contribute right away, but he looks pretty good in the preseason, right? I do it with the shoot. He's going to

probably have to play. And that's not a great position to be in, if you're the Lakers, because they need his shooting, like they need shooters. I don't think they have much of any chance of winning a playoff series. But I do think winning 44 games is absolutely achievable and probable. John, you love your boy Dalton Kineck, who had a massive preseason game. He tied for the most field goal attempts in preseason. Congratulations. He'll probably do that four times this year. Okay.

Wow. And that means that that means a lot more in the, not that specifically. And that means a lot more in the collegiate ranks when there are like a third as many games. I don't know how much don't connect going off four times in a two game season does for the Lakers. Right. He's a very feaster famine, really fun player. So I was super ready to go under and this, this number has messed everything up. Yeah. Because it's so low. That's like kind of, I kind of can't figure out

what to do. I guess I'm, I think I'm going to go over. But John, you talk, because I think LeBron is so motivated to make this LeBronny thing not look foolish. Oh, and then also he got to pick the coach and he kind of can't take any games off this year because this is all his machinations. And if he doesn't, if they don't do well, he looks like a fool. However, I do think LeBron lives

like kind of in his own world and nothing that matters can really affect his mindset. So maybe I'm coming at this from a foolish place, but you were going to, oh, John, I'm just going to say, based on things you've told me before. Yeah. All the public money has to be on the over here. Absolutely. And also that line makes me feel like the guy's running the casinos. Know that LeBron James is secretly dying or something like, you know, like that number is so low.

It's like, let's go. This is a number that would give you pause if you're trying to bet this this over. And this is, I would call this a stay away number. I would never bet this actually. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, you walked into the trap, John, where you'd end up as over. So it doesn't really disgusted that I'm going to bet the over on JJ Redix team. But I was going to say how much of this number is about JJ? That's not a voter confidence by

George. What the very least JJ's going back to the starting lineup that beat up on the Grizzlies two years ago, the team that are the five man unit that like, Darwin Hammer fused a play for like half of the season last year. So that should work a little bit, I think, I think this roster is pretty gruesome. So Dave, I posit to you that is this Adrian Adonis, a bloated carcass that is propped up by the worker rate and beauty of LeBron and AD, or is it Rick Martell, Rick the

model Martell specifically where we're perfuming a arrogance. I don't think they're good enough to perfume arrogance. So I think it's Adrian Adonis. Oh man. I think we might we might ruin this. This might be the rare triple triple with boys. Yeah. The the Los Angeles Clippers. I looked at their line last week when I was prepping for the Eastern Conference. It's already this probably is not on the board. It keeps going down. It's on the board as of right now. I think

I had put the the Clippers at 36 wins. But in it was an under last week and I was feeling good. It's now and over, but I'm in a co-inaudible. I'm going to I'm going to keep sliding it down. I think the Clippers. I mean, I got quite littered for $4 in a fantasy draft. So I've started praying for his knee felt like a felt like a bargain I couldn't pass up. But this team not a lot of hope here. So I'm going to say 35 wins and take the nearest of unders. Their

over under is currently 35.5. And again, it's gone down like four wins in the past month. I'm pretty sure. So I'm going to I guess I'm going to take the over. Okay. The lack of incentive. Correct. It's a big key here. Right. They don't have their draft pick for maybe the rest of our lifetime. I'm not even sure. Right. It's so far out. It's not on the page on real GM when you go and look. So they just have no incentive to lose, which means they're going to win some games

that they maybe shouldn't. That's just what happens. Right. Tanking teams don't win those games. 36, 37 wins feels like doable for this team. James Hardins had a really good year last year. I think zoo is really good. They're not it's it's a kind of a scrappy team. Like I don't know if you guys watch them in preseason. It looks kind of like the Clippers team with Lou Williams and those guys before Kauai MPG where you know, and I think that Ty lose is good enough coach to to ring the most

out of them. So 37. Kea, I'm quick now. Guys, this is the you just blew my mind when you said 37. This is the this is the easiest over by far. It's not close. We're getting we're carrying that what we're giving what do they want 50 something games last year. We're going to give them 15 games because Kauai isn't playing who barely plays anyways. What is even happening? You're a way of

a guy named Paul George, right? Paul George and Kauai both not there. This team had a horrible they this team won that many games last year and was like what was the stuff they were like negative eight net rating when Paul. Guys played together last year was it someone that I'm not thinking a lot. Why got his money, man? Kauai played last year. January. Yeah. Kauai played last year. A the most games he's played in like six seasons. So did Paul George. They both got money. So like

Paul George got paid. I don't and he's hurt. I'm not sure that's going to work out that amazing. But if they win 30. If they win 37 games. Yeah. They're an over Steve Balmer has traded everyone at the like this is a does I mean this they're trying to justify all this money spent. They don't have to I'm with you. They have to avoid the very bottomed. Dregs of the lottery because they don't own their pick. But like teams don't normally even win this amount of games. It's like it's like the

rare exception. You know, because like normally you pull the plug and so you either win 30 or you win 40 or more. And so I do think they're going to be mid 30s because they don't have anything else. But like we're talking about a team that's like hoping Zubach scores 17 a game and norm powel makes it through the season and they've turned over the car keys to James Harden is James Harden.

Your Luca Dianche. I don't see it. I picked up norm powel. Yeah. I don't I don't see it. But so I saw you pondering the things we were saying, John, are you sticking with your over? Well, I think just maybe not paying as much attention last year. I didn't realize yeah Paul George and Kauai learned were capable of playing lots of games together. Yeah, they did it. Yeah. Um, so I don't know. I mean, I don't feel I don't feel strong. I'm still going to go over.

I guess I can't say it's like easy money slam dunk, but James Harden is still really awesome, especially until the playoffs. Yep. Um, I think they have a decent coach. I think Zubach is good. Right coach. I think they have their defense may be okay. They have no shooting period. They don't have any shooting. Like, didn't they get there? Jones is he shooting? He started for the man. No, he shoots what he's doing. The thunder.

Okay, okay, he gets shots against the thunder in the playoffs. I'm going to backpedal my way into just five. My selection. It's I don't mind. Ty lose a great coach. Russell Westbrook is gone. Russell Westbrook is gone. There you go. That's a good. All right. Let's do the the rockets. The rockets were, I mean, somewhat surprising 500 team last season. Um, I am a big believer in the Houston rockets. I think you know, I think the Houston rockets. Basically any five man combination of

their top 11 guys is good. Like on paper, love it. Watching preseason games. I was like, yep, that's what I expected. They look amazing. I think I think the rockets are are going to make the play in at minimum. I felt like I was being conservative and try not to anger people. I have them to the same number of wins as the Grizzlies. I have them with 45 wins, which honestly, it's only a slight over. They're over under number is 43.5. But I deeply for the rockets.

I think the rockets can finish in the top six. I believe big time in Fred Van Vleet and in Shingoon and just some of those guys taking a step. I mean, I think some artists but seniors good. Uh, I don't know about Reed Shepherd. Rookie. Who knows? But like, they're top 10 looks good. And Steven Adams is even playing. I think they are going to dig their second unit is going to destroy teams. And for me, that's a formula for hitting the regular season win total of 45. Dave,

what do you think about the rockets? I got them at 45 wins too. Uh, all the reasons you laid out. And I'm actually really high on Reed Shepherd. Yeah. You know, he's a rookie. He's a rookie. And, um, yeah, that guy like really stands out. And I think being able to bring that guy off the bench, like you said, with Steven Adams, dude, it's going to be so good. I think they have effort. They can defend the draft after Zach Udy.

Oh, yeah. I've got 45 wins. Are you guys ever concerned that like, um, when I, so the rockets are my league pass team, which I think is most people's league pass team, and they were a team I kept watching last year when I kind of whittled down to my West Coast teams as I want to do because I'm awake. And I've worked on the West Coast since easier for me to do. They look better when Shingoon does not play. I don't, I've said that sentence before because

they had a winning streak last year. But I just a believer that they're going to make it all work. I think Shingoon is a very talented player. He's so cool. Yeah. He's so fun. But they do seem more lean and mean when he's not around to me. But I guess that's not enough to, I'm also, this is another easy over for me. I think the rockets are like also the rockets like all these things that we say about other teams off seasons like the sons and the warriors and everyone like

the rockets off season is also just as awesome like the last couple of years. Like just finding perfect people to put in these spots and he brought it vanvley and even the, we know we made fun of Dylan Brooks so much when when he left. But like he had an awesome offensive year for him. Yeah. Like I just have all these pieces that are perfect and how just how do you score on those buzz solves that they have ranging around? They seemingly have like full buy-in from like Dylan is all

about whatever he may do because offering up. Yeah. Jaylen Green who's not going to get an extension probably today. Jaylen Green seems like he has buy-in and they're going to get I think great stuff from him. And like a men Thompson. I love him as a rookie and I just think this team has so many ways they can play and also their defense is going to be good and they're so deep. Yeah, what do you say, John? Like I watched a bunch of rockets like I don't even think about a men

Thompson. That's how good they are. Yeah. Yeah. I was like that. Who judge kind of non factors to me? Like they have like I think more about our eson than I do about a men Thompson. Like they have just like kind of studs waiting in the wings. Also like I know Fred Van Vleek and put up some weird numbers that make him look not that sexy sometimes. He is awesome. He's a really good player. He is a great NBA player and he's been great at every level he's ever played and he's just like a

winning meaningful player. Yeah, I think they're just collecting their front office is collecting beyond the best young talent in the draft. Yeah, assets. They're also just picking up winning players. Yeah, I think Dylan Brooks is a winning player. I think Stephen Adams is a winning player. I think Fred Van Vleek's a winning player and they're just collecting. I mean, they're running I feel like they're running laps around other teams in the team building. Dave.

They have all these young assets that could make a consolidation trade. They could imagine a scenario where Jaylen Brown asked out or Kevin and who you send right Kevin to rant that you should be making on that. See, that's really interesting because like I do think of this team as like regular season only like, but that's what we're doing here. Yeah, I'm not. I'm not on the app for a playoff team, but regular. She's feeling like I think it's going a little bit

more like baseball now because of the parody. And I think that if you just it's it's all about that high floor high floor. A lot of guys that you can you could potentially package with with picks and you go get Kevin to rant Jaylen Brown, whatever it is. And that's what puts you over the top. I mean, look at what Dallas did last year where they really remade their team on the fly

and it put them on the side. I hate it. Speaking of a lot of guys, interesting. Speaking of a lot of guys, our next team, the Golden State Warriors, Dave, we've been praising the Warriors off season 4 a while unsurprisingly, I am a massive over their over under is 43 and a half. I have them at 47 wins. The only way this could go wrong is that a very old Steph Curry doesn't play that many games, which is very possible. That is the one thing that has me nervous. This team would undefeated in

the preseason, smoking teams. I firmly believe in their depth. I think their defense much like the rockets is going to be awesome. And I think just all the extra possessions they're going to generate by being one of the best rebounding teams and one of the best turnover forcing teams is going to be plenty good enough for them to pass this number. We've been insane, Dave, you

and me just about like the depth pickups. John, we've talked less about it. How do you feel about this number and also my unbridled enthusiasm, which of course is because they side my two favorite players in the off season? Did you say the number? I'm sorry. 43 and a half. That is seems about right. I feel like I'm high on the Warriors, but that seems correct. But I can foresee if Steph is healthy, I think he's extremely motivated. I think Dremont is

extremely motivated. I can see them being much better than that. So I guess just on that possibility, I'll have to start taking some under zoom because I've taken so many overs. Yeah. I'm going to have to take this over even though they got buddy healed who's forced. They won 46 games last year despite Dremont being suspended for a lot of it. And I truly believe in the aggregate, they got better by moving on from Clay Thompson. Clay Thompson

does not defend and was just a one dimensional chucker. Yeah. I mean, I mean, he was killing their offense at times also chucking. Dremont thing is huge. Andrew Wiggins had like all these personal probably, you know, obviously he glosses dad, you know, that that's been something that's been hanging over them for like the last couple seasons. Hopefully he bounces back. Kavan Looney looks incredible. You want to talk about somebody being in he's on that Nercatch diet. He looks great.

And hopefully he can have a little bit of a bounce back. You know, they played him in Trace Jackson Davis to dig together a little bit. I was very interested in in a big sort of line up for the warriors. I just think they have so much flexibility. They have 11 guys who can play. They have Steph Curry. I have them at like 49, maybe 50 wins. And I mean, I think it's really possible. Listen, another amazing. I think I can make a conference finals. I just think when you when you

can defend like this. And I think they're going to score better. They're already they're talking about shooting way more threes like being more intentional about that. Buddy heel. I know you can't stand them, but he's prolific. And when you got a guy like that, next to Steph. Also, like buddy doesn't hurt your offense. The way clay actually hurt their offense. Right. So the the biggest limbs I've gone out on based on the Vegas numbers. It's just I have a big belief

in the warriors and a big belief in the rockets. Although I guess the rockets. I'm only a game and I have over. But like I feel like both of those teams would not surprise me at all if they finished top six. So it sounds like we're all very high. We're both we're all unanimous over on the rockets. We're unanimous over on the warriors. The Denver nuggets. We may be high. We might be more sick. The Denver nuggets. I have them as my fourth seed. I think there's going to be a drop off.

I do not believe in their off season. I do not believe in the replacing of contagious call well pope with a bunch of nobody's no offense Julian Strother. I know you had a big preseason. But like I don't think this team is going to be deep enough for the rigors of this regular season despite yoghurt being one of my favorite players. I picked them to have 50 wins as the four seed. And that's an under at 50.5 wins Dave. What do you think about an over under a 50.5 for the

nuggets? Yeah, I like them at 49.50 again. So I've got them at the under. Christian Brown is that's like the huge question mark. He has to shoot that spot on the on the in that lineup has to shoot. So whoever it is whether it wants it being Strother or Christian Brown or whoever they're going to put out there. Peyton Watson, they that person's going to have to shoot and they're going to have to make and I just don't think they've got anybody to fill that spot. I don't know that

they've got the assets to be able to go out and find a guy. Those guys don't grow on trees. And then honestly, man, I'm just giving them 50 wins is me saying, I think Yoke just filled the best player in the world. And I think he is 50 wins by himself. That's where I'm at with it. Not that he doesn't have some complimentary pieces. I think MPJ could have a nice bounce back season, but he has to defend for them. Aaron Gordon's a contract year that could get tricky.

The Jamal Murray stuff, I think, is a massive question mark, massive. And he just got paid. I mean, the Jamal Murray questions, you say MPJ could have a big year, but like he played, did he play 80 games last year? Yeah. I don't know. So John, so Dave and I both slightly under the nuggets, 50.5 win total. What do you think about a 50.5 win total for the different nuggets and our guy Yoke. I'm under and it's a Jamal Murray under. Yeah. There's a team

that put all their chips in on Jamal Murray as opposed to or just a straight. Okay, so this reminds me exactly. Oh, and I know the Grizzlies didn't have the level of success that the nuggets did, but when the Grizzlies decided we can replace everyone ever through the draft. And we don't need to keep people together and we don't need to add proven players. The nuggets have also done this. They were just backed up by the best player in the league.

And that afforded them success, but I don't see how it can be sustainable. And I think also, because I may have even missed it, this is over under like 49.50. 50.5. So yeah, I just think nuggets will still be awesome, but they now their second best player is Jamal Murray who may not be good anymore. I'm even thinking I'm even not even envisioning that. I assume Jamal Murray is going to be fine. I just have so little. He hasn't been in the rest of it,

but I'm saying if he's not fine, he was going to win. They're doing 44 games. I think. Yeah. I mean, that's probably wrong because because Yokech carried Fuku no Compasso to how many wins? Yeah. I think it's three coupons maybe. Yokech all by himself. Like 44 games. I can't buy himself. I hate the fact we'll never see Jamal Murray not playing with Nikola Yokech. We'll never know. I mean, we saw Canada and it was ugly, but like we do know, man.

I think we do know. I think Jamal Murray is just a guy. All right. The Dallas Mavericks are our last team. Jamal Murray or Tobias Harris. Oh, I'll take Jamal. I'll take Jamal. The last name is the Dallas Mavericks. I have the Mavericks as the three seed coming up their Western conference title or their title their titles trip last season. This surprised me a little bit. You know, I've been a little bit reserved with handing out win totals. I gave the Mavericks

51 wins as my third seed. It turns out that's an over. Their over under is 49.5. Why is their over under so low? John, why is the Mavericks over under not not at least 50.5? I guess it would be sort of a tempering of expectations. Like I was going to ask Dave, if the Mavericks are Brian Danielson or the ultimate warrior, is this a sustained run of excellence

that is one of the guys who times or is this a flash in the pan? Because to me, it felt like everything broke right finally for Dallas and I love their acquisitions and they finally did get some guys together who made for a winning combination, but is are they going to be able to do this year after year? That's like a large question. Okay, let me reverse. I mean, I think the ultimate warrior had a bigger peak. Brian Danielson, right? So, you know, this team is definitely an ultimate

warrior like team. I think that they are going to sprint through the regular season. I think the motivation to get Luca and MVP is there. No, he didn't play in the preseason. He's going to maybe be starting the season banged up, but he puts up these numbers in his sleep. I think that they could have a big regular season and be kind of like the Pacers where they're just, they're going to be able to score so much that maybe the defense doesn't matter as much for

them in a regular season and they can win 53-54 games. But I worry about them big time come playoffs and that's a whole another story. But I think they should be able to win regular season games. I think they care about the regular season as much. I think they're scary. Come play up. I think a shooter like Clay at that volume, he's going to shoot. I think it's just going to create so much so many open looks for PJ Washington. So many room runs for Derek. I mean, this is stuff

that they just didn't have in their office last year. They're going to get easier looks. I mean, I think the defensive questions are fair when you say who's going to guard your best player now. Maybe not. Marshall steps that up. A podcaster being good. But like this team was is it fair to call this team a juggernaut based on how they played last year after the trade deadline? I feel like they were a juggernaut. They were like, yeah. Well, once they got PJ Washington and once

they got Daniel Gafford, they were great last year. And now they've added to that some extra pieces that a lot of people think they're going to help out. I don't know why they would fall back. They won 50 games last season. I don't know. I think it's yeah, I'm going with the over. What we all pick? What we all pick? I didn't write them down. Johnny, do you say I'm going over on the day of over? I'll go under because I'm not going to get trapped by this Lakers weird line

thing again. This is your first Donutsch. I feel like this might be your first Donutsch. Um, well, I'm still going to pick them. I'm still going to pick them to make noise in the playoffs. I don't know. I don't know if Dave knows what a Donutsch is truth or I am, but it's I think he's the best. All right. So let's let's recap. I mean, we'll talk about World Cup. Let's let's let's recap our picks. We were this is this is terrible. We were unanimous on eight picks of the 15. I

don't think I've ever happened before in a conference. So we were very uniform in our thinking. But we went two thirds under on the jazz unanimous under on the spurs. Go ahead and get that winning boys until they, uh, before they change the line. Uh, two thirds under on the kings. Two thirds over on the trailblazers. Lowly 22.5 win total. Uh, we were unanimous over on the sons. Two thirds over on the thunder unanimous under on the Pelicans. Two thirds over on the

timber wolves unanimous under on our grizzlies unanimous over on the Lakers. Two thirds under on the Clippers unanimous over rockets unanimous over warriors unanimous under nuggets two thirds over on the Mavericks. And now I want to switch my Denver endals to overs. Wait, wait, wait. All right. All right. That's fine. So, so we are now unanimous when you were going through on the teams when you were going through all the teams. I kept thinking all these teams did this

like giant double big man thing to try to stop Denver. It barely worked. And now they're taking a step back. Denver's going to go crazy. All right. So now we're unanimous over on the nuggets. But I mean, excuse me, Mavericks and two thirds under on the nuggets to wrap up the show. It is not time for the awards segment of the program. This is very important. The International Stalkhouse of Pancakes award. Is this Sabrina INS group? It is a special award has been given

to the one for 19 game five of the NBA, a deciding game five of the WBA finals. No, these are actually preseason awards, just a few names to recognize for their overall body of work. This preseason, some honorable mentions, a guy named Isaiah Stevens, one for 10 of the preseason. Jalen Pickett, who's going to be one of those bench guys. The nuggets depend on was two for 14 in the preseason. Kobe Jones, part of the Sacramento Kings lineup that featured three Joneses

and two Ellis's. Kobe Jones was three for 17 of the preseason. And then we already mentioned Tim Hurtley, Jr. was four for 23 in the preseason. But I would like to acknowledge the following three players for being horrible in the preseason. One, a guy named Jalen bridges of the sons. I'll be honest, not sure who that is. One for 18 from the field in his five preseason games. That is absolutely astounding. AJ Johnson, rookie for the bucks. I'm never going to get over

this. AJ Johnson in the preseason on two pointers. Five for 32. That's 16%. How do you even do that? Yeah, that's sub Tim Hurtley, Jr. That is stunning. He shot three for 14 on three, which is 21% which raised his field goal percentage. He overall eight for 46 on field goal attempts in the preseason. Oh, by the way, his teammates. Tyler Smith also rookie and then Andre Jackson, project draft picked from last year. Those three guys combined to go 17 for 86 in the preseason.

Should there be an investigation? That is unbelievable. We can change all there to first names to John. Andre Jackson was three for 15. Tyler Smith was six for 25. And finally, I'd like to acknowledge Bayer Baylor Shireman of the Celtics was four for 24 from the field in the preseason. Absolutely. Incredible stuff. But none of you guys are touching AJ Johnson with maybe the worst. I mean, that's that's Alexander Sarr summer league numbers right there. Eight for 46. Incredible.

Incredible stuff. Keep up the good work. Bucks. Happy to be taking that that slam bang under. Turns out Middleton is not going to be available for opening night on Wednesday. And with that, guys, we did it. The NBA season starts tomorrow. I'm very, very excited to see how that will go. All of you out there. Thank you for listening from support this program. Do that at patreon.com slash fast break breakfast.

All right. You guys are the best. Thanks for listening. And remember, breakfast is the most important thing.