Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics, where we discussed the top political headlines with some of today's best minds.
And Donald Trump says the United States is a.
Third world hellhole run by perverts and thugs.
We have such a great show for you today.
Congresswoman Alyssas Lodkin talks to us about her Senate run in the great state of Michigan. Then we'll talk to the Financial Times Christopher Miller about his new book, The War Came to Us. But first we have the host of the Think Like an Economist podcast, fan favorite University of Michigan, professor Justin Wolfers.
Welcome to Fast Politics.
Justin Wolfers at pleasure, Molly.
We started talking.
We were in recession anxiety, right Republicans wanted it, Democrats were worried about it.
Where are we.
Now, emerging post recession anxiety. I'm not sure how we feel about it talking to our therapist.
I certainly am talking to my therapist, but I only see them on Tuesdays.
It's same, It's a good day for therapy.
You know, there were a lot of numbers this week that told really good economic stories.
So talk us through those numbers.
I want to get back a step because you started with recession anxiety, because they want to make clear to your listeners the difference between anxiety and reality. Think about this as economics cognitive behavioral therapy. You're exactly right, Molly. We've gone through two years where the only word that anyone wanted to say about the economy was recession. Yet at the same time, we've created jobs at an absolutely gangbusters pace. We've pushed unemployment down to a fifty year low.
You ask people if they find it easy to find work, they say yes. If they think jobs are plentiful, they say yes. If they expect wages to rise, they say yes. So what we have is, you know, maybe this is economic psychiatry instead, but schizophrenia here. Economic reality has been strong, but it's been the vibe, it's been the way we talk about it. It's been the anxiety that has been far, far weaker. With that, let me answer your question, do you want to tell me what it is?
My question is talk to us about these numbers that we are getting through.
I love that question because you could ask me that any week. So look, there was one part of our economic anxiety that was totally serious, totally real, and was in the numbers. That was inflation. We've all noticed it. You can't help but notice it at the grocery store that prices are rising, and they were rising at a rate that was wildly unfamiliar to many of us. A year ago, inflation was running at nine percent, and for anyone of roughly our age or younger, they had never
experienced infleation like that in their adult lifetimes. Inflation last week we got the latest numbers. Months later, inflation's down to three percent. That's one a stunning reversal, and two remarkably close to normal. So normal is when inflation's two percent. And you might say, hey, I don't like it when inflat price is ris by two percent, But the truth is two percent of anything is basically barely noticeable. When
inflation is two percent. Some things are getting cheaper, maybe a cell phone bill, and some things are getting more expensive, maybe construction work or the local handyman. And enough things are going up, but enough things are going down that it doesn't really change things. And so the whole goal of the FED is to get inflation low enough that
you don't think about it. Well, we just spent two years thinking about it and we're on the cusp of inflation falling to levels low enough and sustainably enough that we can go back to not thinking about it again.
I think the prevailing wisdom, which turned out to be wrong, so maybe it was the prevailing anxiety, was that the FED raising rates would eventually bring the American economy into a recession.
Explain to us why that was wrong.
Let me explain to you something even more exciting good, which is what a wonderful, amazing couple of years we've had, because we've had something that almost never happens. Over the past two years. We've created jobs, we've reduced unemployment, and we've reduced inflation, so the two biggest economic variables have both improved at the same time. That's incredibly rare. What a fantastic, fabulous, joyful moment, and seriously bask in the joy that brings.
Now.
That relates to your question, why am I so excited about that? Because usually we think, when we're thinking about from one year to the next, you can get more of one and a bit less of the other. And so if we wanted a bit less in flam so the theory went, we would have to have higher unemployment. But wonderfully enough, we're getting lower inflation and lower employment. Is your next question, why?
Yes?
My next question is why? Why? Why? Tell me why?
Justin more for us, I spend six lectures in my economics one on one class teaching how the macroeconomy works over the course of the business cycle. Let me try and get it done to two minutes, maybe.
One You know me?
Well, yeah, So one thing that causes inflation is too much demand. People have too much money, They want to go to the store. They try and buy more stuff than the store has. So what does the store do at jacks up prices. So if that's what's driving inflation, then the only thing to do is crush the economy. So people are no longer so optimistic, so they'll stop forcing prices up. That's one theory of what was happening. You heard a lot of that theory from people like
Larry Summers. Another theory is, well, another fact that can drive inflation what's going on on the supply side. And this is where we know that, for instance, global supply chains became totally disrupted during COVID. We know that when Putin invaded Ukraine, it totally messed up global energy markets. We know from just walking down the street that COVID totally disrupted all commerce on main street. I don't know about your street, but my local dray cleaner hasn't yet reopened.
The tables are still kind of oddly too far apart at my local restaurant. And there's a whole lot of just getting back to normal. We all do a little bit more work from home, and there's a whole lot of getting back to normal we haven't yet done. Now, the thing about a supply shark is, let's say Putin invades Ukraine, that forces energy prices up, and that's it. That's the whole story. Now, energy prices are higher, but the thing is they're no longer rising, and inflation is
when things prices keep rising. So the thing about a supply shark is if you just wait, it works its way through the system and it stops adding to an inflation. And in fact, with some things like global supply chains, if you just wait, global supply chains were all messed up and then they unfurled, and that actually pushes prices backed down. And so if you think inflation's driven by supply sharks, you think the best policy response is to wait and so what we've seen is waiting has proven
to be a remarkably useful strategy. Now you might say, wait, where's the FED and all this? Well, the FED did jack up interest rates. But if the Fed's interest rate hikes were what was responsible for driving inflation down, it would have caused unemployment to rise and it would have caused slow economic growth.
But it didn't.
So really, what I think we're learning is getting back to normal, getting back to business, letting supply chains unfurl turned out to be the right strategy, and it's led to inflation falling while maintaining a pretty good economy for most people. Now, I don't want to overstate my point. This is the last footnote and then I'll get out of economics one O one mode. Did inflation rise you to supply or demand? It could be a bit of both. And so we've managed to get inflation from crisis levels
down to nearly normal levels just by waiting. Maybe that was the supply shock. But getting it down from nearly normal all the way down to normal, well that might be a little bit more work. So I think we've got half the job done. It may be that the second half is going to be a little bit harder.
And why would that be.
Well, if all the good news of supply shocks working their way out of the system is done, that could be the case. I'm not sure. Then whatever inflation is left may well be due to too much demand. And if that's the case, the only way to get inflation down any further would be to slow demand. And that is what the Fed is trying to do. It's not trying to cause a recession. It's trying to cause what
it calls a soft landing. Like, Hey, if we just get people a little bit worried so they spend a little bit less, maybe there'll be fewer queues at the supermarket, and maybe the supermarket will feel that it can't raise its prices quite as much, and that's going to be enough to lower inflation.
I'm kind of optimistic we're on the way there because the numbers are coming down.
That's why you're optimistic.
Right now, we're back out of the economics textbook to the real world, and the numbers are coming down. We're seeing reduced inflation pretty much across the board. And then how boring do you want to get here?
We can be a little more boring Oh good.
That is like joy for any economist to hear it. Okay, like this is in the weeds, but it turns out to matter. So that's why I just kind of wanted to go here. What's the most important price for the cost of living? It's the price of shelter. That's the biggest part of your budget and the biggest part of mine.
It turns out the way that the government measures shelter inflation as part of the CPI is it looks at all the leases in the economy, including people who signed a lease like six, eight, nine, ten, eleven months ago.
So that's going to take more time to go down.
Oh my god, you're a natural economist.
Oh yeah, and natural we.
Know leases were going crazy a year ago. But if we look instead just at the new lead that are being signed this month, they're not going crazy anymore. And so if that keeps up, and we expect it will, then that means that over the next year, all leases, it's not that they're going to go down, they're going to stop going up. And so therefore shelter inflation is going to dissipate rapidly and it's almost in the bank.
And so the most important good in the economy we know is going to stop being as inflationary as it has been. And that's one of the reasons that economists are optimistic, where we feel pretty good about the numbers where they are, but we know that they signal better numbers are ahead.
That's pretty interesting.
But what about, for example, like part of inflation that was good was that wages were going up. Where does that leave wages, because I mean, there's a real disconnect between wages not going up with inflation.
Great question, Molly, So one way to think about this as a race between wages and prices. Look, if prices go up ten percent and your wages go up ten percent, you came out pretty much. Even if prices got ten percent, your wages go up twelve percent, you came out ahead. If prices got ten percent your wages got eight percent, you came out behind. And what we've seen over the past year and a half is that prices had run ahead of wages, and so people really were feeling a
squeeze because there really was a squeeze. Now, the thing is, wages don't bump up and down quite as much as prices do, and so wages have been running at nominal wages, the amount of cash you get, had been growing at a rate of about four and a half percent for a few years, but prices went from growing at three percent all the way up to growing at nine percent, and so when they were growing faster, people were falling behind.
But now we're in a situation where wages are growing at four percent and prices are growing at three percent. So now we're not just keeping up with prices, we're getting ahead. A shorter way of saying that is, for the average American, their paycheck now goes further. Yes, prices a rising at the grocery store, but so is your paycheck, and those real wages are what really matter for determining your purchasing power and how well you're doing. I want
to add a really really important asterix to this. One objection is just and you're just talking about averages because that's what economists do, or macroeconomists. So if we actually look at what's happened to the wages of the most poorly paid Americans, they've risen quite dramatically in the post pandemic period, and they've risen faster than prices. And so we've actually had in this history. I think the White
House just hasn't told enough. We've had a period of now close to three years in which wage gains are going to those who need it most. You might say, well, that's great, hooray. Let me put that in context. That comes after four decades in which that's basically never happened. So those at the bottom are doing a little better.
So that's good. I mean, will that change?
I hope not.
If inflation stops going up, will there be more of that?
Two things? What's going to happen for the typical American? My guess is is that wages fell behind prices a bit through twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two, So I wouldn't be surprised if in twenty three and twenty four wages keep rising at a pretty good clip even as prices don't rise as fast. So I expect a lot of people to get a bit of catch up. And then for those who I really care about, those at the bottom end of the income distribution, I kind
of feel pretty optimistic for them. So they got really bad at over several decades of globalization and trade from China and technological change and all sorts of forces. What are the biggest forces that are going to brutalize our labor market over the next couple of decades. I know the biggest one I'm thinking about right now is AI. AI is coming for the white collar jobs, not the blue collar. The computer now can do what I do for a living. What do I do for a living?
I take in a lot of information and simplify it. Turns out GPT is really good at that, and so it's my job that's on the line, not the blue collar workers. So I think the blue collar workers maybe are in for a pretty good run in the next couple of decades.
Let's talk about this week has been like binomics week, and the White House has been sort of trying to explain what they did that was right on the economy. I'm always a little cynical, you know, when anyone names something, but it actually tell us why I'm wrong to be cynical at all.
Yeah, you should absolutely name it. Let's call it mollonomics.
Yeah, I think it'd be crazy.
Look, why are they branding it. They're branding it because it looks like a pretty good product. The good product is a good economy. Why are they doing it right now? Well, the economy is doing well, inflation is finally starting to come down, and so now they're happy to tell their story. Your cynicism is, did they really do it? I think that cynicism is shared by most of the economics profession.
So a simple rule of thumb is people in Washington think that people in Washington determine everything everywhere in America. People outside of Washington think people in Washington don't do much. That's useful, very hard to point to specific things that the administration has done to create the enormous macroeconomic gains, like why is unemployment low? What did Trump do to get to low unemployment? What did Biden do to gets low unemployment? Let me give one stout defense of the
Biden administration. Am I allowed to swear on this show?
Yes, we love it, Yes, trigger warning, Justin is going to swear, but he's going to swear in Australia.
Here's the real defense of the administration. They didn't fuck it up. So that actually is really worth something. You know, in twenty twenty, we got hit by a once in a lifetime public health, economic, social, political shock, and we had a White House that was artly intent on fucking it up right, and they fucked it up in ways that killed hundreds of thousands of people and probably caused
marked economic harm. And so the thing I admire most about Biden is actually twenty twenty one, which was remarkably boring, which is he came to office and said, I'm going to keep you safe. I'm going to get you vaccinated, We're going to have sensible rules. And that has a massive economic impact that you may or may not see in the unemployment rate or in GDP, but you're seeing you know, look, if a couple more people around the dinner table still alive, you see it. A sense of
security that people have. You see in their continued attachment to the labor force that they didn't think the only thing that was safe to do was to drop out. And so, you know, it's not often that you see a politician totally fuck it up because the economy is ingenious. It's full of smart people who want to get work done no matter what Washington does. We did see it in twenty twenty, and we haven't soon it under Biden, and they want to give them credit for that. The
other is a big part of Bidenomics. They keep using this term bottom up and middle out. They do care deeply about the income distribution, and so I think the fact that that lower paid workers finally get doing a bit better that may well trace itself back to some of the administration policies.
Right, really interesting, justin I really appreciate you.
You will come back.
I'll be here for you, mate.
How about.
Congresswoman Alyssa Slotkin represents Michigan's seventh district. Welcome to Fast Politics, Congresswoman Slotkin, thank you, thanks for having me. First, we need to talk about your speech that was this morning or yesterday.
Let's just spout an hour ago.
This is going to air Monday, and today is Thursday. Tell us about your speech. It's really an interesting and insane thing that Republicans are doing, as oppose to usual when they do insane things.
Yeah, I mean, I think the speech I gave was related to us about to vote on the Pentagon budget. And you know this kind of incessant obsession that my Republican colleagues have for sticking in these culture war issues into what have long been bipartisan kind of meat and potatoes issues on the Hill. And so late last night they passed a bunch of really extreme amendments through the
Rules Committee. We're going to vote on them, and you know they include things like getting rid of affirmative action for our military service academies, all the officers that are going to be running the military. I mean, just really crazy things. One of the things was about again going after American service women serving on active duty and banning them, preventing them from getting any assistance, and getting to a
state that has abortion services. What that means in real terms is that you know a woman who has signed up for the military, and she signed up years ago. She's on active duty, she wants to serve her country, protect her country. She has no choice on where she gets based, and she's sent to Texas, where they have a full ban on abortion, including for things like rape and incest. If she wants to get an abortion, she has to go five hundred miles away to Kansas City.
And the Defense Department had said we'd give her leave to do that, we'd help her get her a bus ticket to go do that. And these guys are willing to threaten the entire Pentagon budget to say no, not one dollar, not one helping hand in getting her even though she has no choice on where she's based. And I think the bigger story here, and the point I tried to make in my speech is we need to hear what my colleagues are telling us in the House, in the Senate, everywhere they go. They are not done
just because Roe got overturned by the Supreme Court. They are not done by passing complete bans in their states like Alabama and Texas, which is where the authors of these things are. They're not done until they get a federal ban on abortion. So that even if states like Michigan vote on their ballot to ensure the right to an abortion, they're not done until they overturn that, until they get a federal ban on abortion. And this is just part and parcel of it. They're holding up the
Defense Department budget. They're holding up two hundred and fifty three and fourced our generals who can't be confirmed because one senator wants his policy reverse.
So let's talk about that senator. His name is Tommy Tuberbell. He is from the state of Alabama, and he has been he is now. He has held this up for a long time and is actually threatening our national secure day.
Yeah, I mean, it is unprecedented for folks who may not know he has now created a gap in the command out of the Marine Corps, the chief of Staff of the Army, the Navy, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs could be held up. I mean, our senior most positioned.
And for a guy who's a coach, right, that's his whole like stick is that he's a coach, Like exactly, how do you put your best foot forward if there's no coach for the team, right, if there's no three and four star general who's supposed to be leading millions
of men and women. And I think what was illustrative this last week was that he made these horrible comments about white nationalism and white nationalists, and very quickly Republicans around the Senate, including his own fellow senator from Alabama, said no, no, no, that's not right. White nationalists are not just white people, and you need to clarify your comments. It should be easy to condemn white nationalism. He took back his comments, he corrected his comments. So he's vulnerable
to pressure from his colleagues. So all I'm asking is that Republicans who claim to care about national security in the Senate pressure the guy. He's clearly vulnerable to pressure as he holds up our national security interest for his own culture war.
Yeah, it's a pretty unprecedented thing. And so what's happened here is this is a sort of very standard budgetary thing that happens in Congress. And what Republicans have done, our listeners will be shocked to.
Hear that Marjorie Taylor Green is involved in.
This has put They put a lot of poison pills in the amendment to make it so that if Democrats vote for it, they will be voting for things defunding the war in Ukraine.
You really can't script this stuff. It's unbelievable. Then, at the exact moment, President Biden and all of our NATO allies are standing up next to President Zelenski. They're welcoming in two new members of NATO, They're pushing back on Vladimir Putin and protecting democracy. You have Mack Gates putting forward a ban on all assistance to Ukraine, like all
of it. So it's just and the idea that that party cares about national security at this point, and you know, the traditional view is that Republicans care about national security, they're big on defense. It's just the whole has been punched so widely through that, and I call upon I know there are people in the Republican Party who care about national security, just do something about these extreme elements and like, have your voice heard if you really care that much.
So Republicans are going to find themselves in a very sticky wicket though, because this could be the road to government shut down. I mean, eventually the Senate is doing their own version of this. They're going to have to get the votes to get this passed.
Right, A lot of what's going on is kind of a showdown within the Republican Party, you know, sort of the Freedom Caucus folks versus the other folks. And I can't pretend to know the ins and outs of that.
A few sane Republicans, right.
I would just say, we're going to learn a lot as these votes come down, because I think we've seen a number of Republicans say publicly like I'm not voting for this stuff. So it's again another very public debate. I don't know where it's going to come down, but this is what happens when you let extreme elements of your party run you right own you. And that's that's what's happening right now.
It does sort of stem from this McCarthy not being able to control his caucus absolutely.
I mean, I think they have a very slim majority, just four seat majority, so it makes it hard to govern. I mean, look, this is exactly the majority Democrats had in the last Congress. Though we didn't look like this, right, We didn't have this like a pitched battles going on in the hallways of Congress against our own party. You know, we had our debates, but we keep it inside the family,
you know, and largely. And so when you give away your power like that and you don't stand up for more, you know, traditional values on how to run and how to govern, you have the extremists takeover. And they have lots of seats on the Rules Committee, the committee that passed all these things in the dead and night. And this is what happens.
It is pretty interesting. So Democrats are in the minority, but it's a very slim minority. The Republicans are not able to you know, they're having a lot of trouble. They're really not able to pass even you know, the like messaging bills that wouldn't get passed anyway. They're stuck on those. I mean, is there an opportunity here for Democrats.
Well, look, I mean whenever you just whenever any side has a four seat majority, it's an opportunity to flip that body in the next election. I mean, we need five House seats to flip in twenty twenty four, and we need to hold the seats that we have now. That is eminently doable. I mean we lost the majority just out of like New York.
Right, Yes, you saw that news today.
As a good Midwestern where who comes from a swing state, I have to say, we've been doing our part in Michigan and we need our friends in New York and California. Yeah, to win some seats or with some feats back, and but so it's eminently doable.
As a New Yorker, that was enraging. And I'm sure you saw the news today. It may end up being redistricted again.
I can't. I don't pretend on exanity York politics, but not good.
Yes, but continue sorry, Yes, I mean it's that could be good, but who knows.
Okay, Well, we have seats that President Biden won in New York and California that should be able to flip so that we can take the majority, and then you know, we need the majority to mean something, right, we need if.
We have the House and the Senate and the White House, we need to legislate and pass bills. And you know, as someone who is running for the Senate, I feel pretty strongly that we need to reform the filibuster so the Senate can vote on things. The Senate isn't voting in a serious way right now because they have a slim majority. We have the filibuster in place, so thousands of bills that we passed over in the House under
Democratic leadership sat on the desk of the Senate. And I just don't think the era we live in right now with the Supreme Court that we have, allows for a dormant or quiet Senate. So I'm a big proponent of philibuster reform in the Senate for sure.
Tell us about your Senate race.
We have our senior Senator, Senator Debbie Stabinow, who surprised the heck out of us and announced in January that she wasn't going to run again. I give her a lot of credit. I mean, it is she is going out at the top of her game. She's the chairwoman of the Ag Committee, Agriculture Committee. It's a farm bill year, huge piece of legislation in every five years. So she surprised us because she's been representing Michigan in some form or fashion for fifty years and it's still going strong.
I mean, she's like, you know, energizer Bunny. I got in in February. It's an open seat. And you know, for me, I just really have come to believe that we are going through a decade of political instability in the United States of America, that we will look back on this period and say we were so polarized and so turned against each other that nothing got done. We
were wobbling back and forth like a pendulum. And in that decade, as we live in the middle of it, we must do a better job of playing offense on protecting our rights and our democracy, not just defense. And that's something I want to be a part of in
the Senate. I want to help push. You know, my background of strategic planning, like we need to get more strategic and more serious with our plans on how to protect ourselves, and then we need to to do other really important things, like we are becoming a country where it's harder to get into and stay in the middle class from Michigan for the country, in a multi racial, multi ethnic country, that is not good. That's not good
for our security. So, you know, there's a bunch of things that I want to do in the Senate, but recognizing where we are as a country and how we get through this as a country, you need serious leadership and that's what I hope to bring in the Senate.
We have so many women from Michigan on this podcast, from your governor to your Secretary of State, and so many congresswomen from Michigan who are really great. But when it came time to fill this seat, the group sort of came together. This isn't an enormous primary of different Michigan congresswomen, of which there are many who are great.
Can you talk about that a little bit?
Well, look at it's an open seat, and in Michigan that's a big deal. No one has claim to any nomination. Anyone who wants to run can than is running. I mean, there's definitely people who are running. And to me, you know, I really wasn't involved in politics before Donald Trump was elected, right Frankly, I was having to go brief Congress all the time. In my prior life in national security, and it was never like a club I was looking to
be a part of. And then this generational event happened and Donald Trump got elected and he won in the state of Michigan, and that was the first time I ever even thought about running. To me, I don't focus on other Democrats, and I don't like fighting and all the nastiness and the circular firing squad that happens in
these things. I'm focused on what i want to do affirmatively and positively, and I'm focused on keeping the seat in Democratic hands because we have a terribly slim majority in the Senate.
So that's what I do.
I've got to do.
But I just think it's interesting that the group gets along so well, and it's sort of this one state which has such conservative I mean, you guys have the Michigan militia, also have these sort of amazing women politicians who have come out of it.
Yeah, but can I tell you something where I think that comes from. First of all, michigan Ers are very practical, hardworking people. Like our culture is not to obsessively talk about yourself and self congratulate, but to just get your work done, and that there's value and pride in that. But I also have to say, when you're from a swing state and you're a Democrat from a swing state, you it is not theoretical. If you do not have your you know what together, you're going to get rolled.
And the example from last summer a year ago, when Roe was overturned, we were a full band state from a nineteen thirty one law. And not only did we come together every single elected official up and down the ballot at every level to push forward on Proposition three get it on our ballot, eight hundred thousand signatures in eight weeks to get it on our ballot. Right, We
all talked about it, We were disciplined about it. We had a plan even before Roe was overturned, because we know in a swing state you cannot take things for granted. So Michigan Democrats, but I would also guess Minnesota Democrats, Wisconsin Democrats, folks who are who look over the cliff and know that if they do do not get their crap together, Republicans with a really scary agenda are going
to take over. That makes us more pragmatic and more concrete, and that I think is a swing state or a Midwestern state trait.
Right, No, no, and we're and a me and a great example as we've seen that me and Minnesota has done an incredible job with its legislature.
I mean, I just think that it's hard to think of a of a.
State that has passed more progressive legislation quite so quickly.
Tell us when is your primary, etc.
Well, in Michigan, I think a lot of Midwestern states have late primary. Ours is in August of twenty twenty four, so lots of time in the time. What people want and expect is someone who just listens and fights. It's not rocket science, it's not something you know some sort of algebraic equation. Just show up, listen, and go and
do something when your people need you. As a member of Congress currently, that's what I'm going to continue to do, and that's what I hope to offer and hope to earn people's votes.
Yeah, fantastic, Thank you so so much.
Of course, thanks for having me.
Hi.
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Christopher Miller is a foreign correspondent for The Financial Times and author of the War Came to Us, Life and Death in Ukraine. Welcome to Fast Politics, Christopher Miller.
Thank you glad to be back.
Tell us where you are, what you're doing.
Sure?
I am talking with you from Central Kiev, Ukraine, capital country. I'm inside my apartment, which I just returned to shortly before we began this chat because I was out in eastern Ukraine visiting some Ukrainian soldiers on the front line to see how the counter offensive has been going.
I've lost track of sort of where we are in this war. Talk me through where we are in this war?
Yeah, I think you know, if you look at it in terms of maybe several phases, right, that's probably the easiest way to break it down. I would say, certainly. From February twenty fourth twenty twenty two through maybe the end of the Battle of Kiev was the first and arguably the heaviest phase of fighting, when everything was sort.
Of up in the air.
We didn't know, you know, whether Kiev would fall in the first days, as some predicted and I think even some Western governments had feared would happen. Obviously that didn't,
and the Russians were forced out of Kiev region. That took us, you know, a little bit to the east and south of the country, to some of the battlefields that had been fought on previously for eight years prior to that, right from twenty fourteen until twenty twenty two, and Ukraine's counter offensive from late last summer through autumn, where the Ukrainians managed to route the Russians in that northeastern region of Harkiv and also in the south and
recapture that big city of Hirsan, and then I would say, from basically that point until this spring, things sort of
just ground on for a while. Russia tried his hand at another offensive to recapture territory lost in Ukraine's counter offensive and also to capture all of these four oblasts or what we would probably refer to in the us is as states that Vladimir Putin back in September deemed to be Russian territory and at least in a Moscow had formally annexed these territories, and that sailed this offensive.
Russian offensive came in the dead of winter. They really really struggled and lost a lot of soldiers in the process, and a lot of your listeners, I'm sure will remember the Battle of Bakhmut, which was this grinding war of attrition where Russia was using the Wagner mercenaries who were being ordered across these open froz in open fields in what the Ukrainians referred to as meat waves.
Right.
It was this.
Brutal World War one, World War two trench warfare style battle that you know, ground on through through a spring.
Yeah.
You know, when I was out there in December, the Ukrainian soldiers were telling me that Russian soldiers were just you know, coming at them in waves of ten twelve people and they would mow them down and then another ten to twelve would come and capture five ten meters
more and they just you know, they didn't stop. Eventually, that brings us to spring, right, and you know, Russia finally got a battlefield victory of sorts, although it lost tens of thousands of soldiers in the process, and we began hearing a lot about Ukraine's much anticipated counter offensive which is underway now. It's been underway for a little over a month. We've seen a lot of Western weaponry
flow into the country. It's now being used by three Western train brigades that are part of this dozen that are being used for offensive action by Ukraine on the front line. And so, you know, we're in this moment now where everybody at the Vilnia summit in NATO this week was talking about, you know, Ukraine's successes on the battlefield. It's hopes for the Ukrainian counter offensive to recapture hopefully
quite a bit of Russian occupied territory. And as I said, I just returned from the front line and can tell you it's certainly moving more slowly than everyone has hoped, but they are Ukrainians that is recapturing some ground.
It's just really slow and.
Plodding, and it sort of reminds me of the winter of twenty fourteen or end of twenty fourteen early twenty fifteen, where there was just really grinding war, except now it's on a much much greater scale, of course, and Ukraine has a lot at stake here, and you know, hopefully what came out of a Vilnius is a sign that Ukraine's going to continue getting the support it needs to restpect its territory. But one thing is clear, it's going
to be an extremely difficult fight. The Russians over the winter time and spring, as Ukpanian was preparing for this counter offensive, had a lot of time to dig in and build its defenses. They've got these extremely heavily fortified defensive lines throughout the south and the east, with minefields, trenches, you name it. So it's intense at the moment. Like I said, there's a lot of state.
So you're here to promote a book which is coming out on July eighteenth.
Is that right?
I am, Yes, July eighteenth.
The war came to us life and death in Ukraine.
This is like for my own edification as much as anything, like how do you write this when the war is ongoing? And probably when you got this to the printer, I mean, I guess we sort of saw that first moment where everyone thought that the Ukrainians were going to get you know that this was just going to be a short Russia you know, takeover, but it has evolved, this situation has changed so much.
Yeah, yeah, I mean, you know, one of the most asked questions of me and in the past year among people who knew I was writing this, was, you know, how do you end a book that likely isn't going to have an ending by the time it's published. And I went into this knowing that there would very likely not be a ceasefire even let alone some kind of
solution to this war. But in my case, I set out to write a book that covered not only the full scale invasion and events from February twenty fourth until now or in the future, but to take a broader look at how we got to this point and to really underscore the fact that Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine didn't start on February twenty fourth. It started in
winter and spring of twenty fourteen. And so, you know, some of this book, the early early chapters in it, actually begin as far back as twenty ten, when I arrived in Ukraine and first as is a Peace Corps volunteer before getting into foreign correspondence, and I lived in the city of Bakmut, and so I knew that there would sort of be an ending to the story, because by the time I had come to the end of this book, the Battle of Bakmut was raging, and it was this was last winter, and I knew that if
I found a way to, you know, leave it somewhat open ended, but to end in the city of bak Mout as this battle was raging, there would sort of be a little bit of a of a closure, or almost I guess, rather like the book would come full circle.
Right.
It began in Bachmut in peacetime thirteen years ago, and it ends in Bachmut as it's being ravaged by Russian artillery and air strikes. And so, you know, for me, that was at least a good way to sort of come back to where it began and to really underscore the extreme difference. You know, this this quiet eastern Ukrainian city, you know, near the Russian border that a lot of
people hadn't heard of. And I come in not knowing much and sort of bumble around and find my way and fast forward to you know now, and you return to this place that's just being pummeled, you know, everything in between is you know, my experiences and the stories of the Ukrainians I meet along the way.
You know, there's a lot of reportage and.
Dispatches, but you know some of it had been written well before, however, drafted rather probably not in perfect pros, but then you know, written through, and you know, certainly all of the new stuff was in the latter part of the book, collected along the way over the past year. That I guess is a general summary of it.
What is life like now?
I mean you were saying before that people have moved back. Russians don't seem any less interested in destroying their way of life.
Oh, certainly not. No, I mean, you know, the Ukrainians know that this is an existential fight. If you look out the window in Kiev, there is a semblance of normalcy. I was just telling you before we started that it's rush hour traffic outside right now, and I'll bet you if I go to the bar across the street that it'll be full of people and the restaurants and the terraces right now, because it's a beautiful sunny summer day here are going to be full of couples and people
just getting off of work. But certainly underneath the surface is a lot of anger and sadness, grief. Just overnight Russia launched yet another suicide drone attack on the capitol. And so, you know, by day people are trying to live their lives, go to work, do their shopping, pay their bills. By night they're sleeping in the corridor of their apartments or in the bomb shelter, trying to avoid being on the other end of a cruise missile, you know.
And certainly on the battlefields of the east and the south of the country, war is raging. Hundreds of people are being wounded or killed every day on the front line, and so there's this real It seems especially jarring because
Kiev is very much a European city. You could step into Prague or Warsaw or you know, Budapest, and then you know, drop into Kiev and you'd have that same that same vibe, except that then the air raid sirens would sound and you'd be quickly reminded that this is a country at war.
Yeah, there's this sort of feeling that a lot of reporting sort of it kind of makes an overture towards but is not completely clear about which is it does seem like there's a sense in which the Ukrainian fighters fight in a way that is different than the Russian fighters.
Can you talk about that?
Yeah, you know, I think what you're referring to is probably this truth rather that you know, the Russian military really is old school, like it fights in a very old school way. To put it simply, there's still this Soviet style hierarchy where commands you know, really has to go from the field up through a chain and you know, reach a senior commander and then come all the way back down before any kind of action is or action
is taken on the battlefield or decision is made. Right, and the Ukrainians, adversely, are now being Western trained, they have a lot more leeway in terms of what they're able to decide unilaterally on the battlefields. They don't necessarily need to wait for commands from Kiev to make a move. They can react more quickly. There's a lot more trust in battlefield commanders. If you look at the militaries right, Russia's was significantly larger and thought to be the second
strongest in the world. They had a very specific military doctrine that has I think remained more or less the same for decades. The Ukrainians are forming theirs, and they're forming theirs while fighting, so they're figuring out what has worked. They have a lot more freedom to explore and try things. They've had to try new things and they've had to be scrappy because they are really outnumbered.
But it also seems like they are more committed to the fight.
Well certainly, I mean, this is this is life and death, this is an existential fight. So you know, they are absolutely dedicated to winning this war. They know that if they don't, this could be the end of their country,
the end of their culture, their language. You know, for the Russians, a lot of these soldiers, and we know from some of the interviews with captured soldiers and even statements from soldiers that have been wounded and returned to Russia that they really don't know what they're fighting for. That Putin has given so many untruthful, bizarre, contradictory reasons for launching this war, that they really don't know what they are fighting for. They're essentially, you know, just kind
of operating like a machine out there. You know, somebody is giving an order and they're doing what they're told. The Ukrainians are fighting for their lives and they know that if they stop fighting that this could be the very end of Ukraine.
It's so interesting talked to us a little bit about what happened with the Wagner group and how that has affected the war.
Yeah, I mean, you know, you have Guinea Progosion, the leader of Wagner, who was famously known as Putin's chef because he was a caterer at one point.
Right, didn't you sell hot dogs?
Yeah? Yeah, that's right. You know, he was a hot dog vendor who worked his way up after a stint in Russian prison to then serve right, well, the great Russian dream, right, and so now he's an extremely wealthy businessman.
And warlord, yes who among us.
Right, whose mercenary group was filled with convicts because Russia was losing so many soldiers in the first several months of blood Putin's full skill invasion last year that he went ahead and approved, you have Guinea Progosion to go recruiting at Russian prisons for prospective fighters, and those people who raised their hand and volunteered would see their sentences commuted for six months of fighting if they lived.
So these are not perhaps not great guys.
Right, Ukraine is fighting with some of its very best people. Russia is throwing a lot of its worst at the fight.
But more likely maybe to do war crimes, etc.
Yes, yes, no, Vagner is known for its brutality. I mean, these are guys that have been filmed beheading Ukrainian prisoners of war, astrating Ukrainian prisoners of war. It's really really ruesome stuff like these are the worst of the worst people.
But it's interesting, you know, you asked how it affects the fight Wagner's fighters still because it's not only these convicts, it's actually, you know, some well trained and battle hardened fighters who fought in Ukraine, you know, back in the day in twenty fourteen, also in other wars in Syria in particular, they have been the only real military unit that has had success on the battlefield in terms of
gaining some territory. Now, but maybe an asterisk next to that word success just because you know, they were They led the charge around the city at Bakmut in the battle there and managed to take Backmut, but it took months and months and months of you know, heavy artillery pounding the city, air support and them moving essentially block by block for ten months before they took the city.
But the rush the regular Russian military hasn't had a success on the battlefield since the first days of the invasion, when they swept through the northern part of the country through Tchernobyl, Tourkiev in the south and occupied those first areas saw which they know they no longer occupied.
So you know, there is this question of whether or.
Not Russian military at some point, if it attempts to again go on the defensive, is going to be able to capture any more ground, or if really they're you know, now digging in and trying to settle with what they've got, Because Wagner really was the only group in the last many many months.
I mean, I guess.
Arguably a year probably a year that had any real success in advantage on the battlefield.
Do we have a sense of what happened to Wagner.
Yeah, a little bit. It's a bit of a confusing situation. There was this failed mutiny that you have Guinea progosion led on the Kremlin, and then you know, we saw this sort of like slow mark and followed it all in real time on Russian military bloggers telegram channels where apparently twenty thousand or so Wagner troops were rushing up this highway to Moscow and within even just a couple of hours from from the Kremlin before calling it off in a deal apparently that broker to buy the Belarusian
leader Alexander Lukashenko. If you call this in the past several days that Putin had called progosion and about thirty Wagner commanders into the Kremlin to have a chat, and we haven't seen Progosion since then. You know, it does seem like Putin took a serious hit to his reputation as a strong man and maybe now trying to show that he, you know, still has control over the securities situation in this country and and the political situation certainly. But Vagner was forced to hand in a lot of
its weaponry. It was told that it needs to relocate to Belarus, that progos It himself also needs to relocate. But he's shown up in Saint Petersburg and then in the Kremlin, as I mentioned, So it's a bit of
a confusing situation. I would say there's a big question mark over Wagner right now, whether or not they have completely disbanded and won't be involved in the fight in Ukraine, or you know, if they're still going to be operating in Africa, where they always or where they also have a large footprint.
So interesting. Thank you so much for coming on. I hope you'll come back.
Of course, thank you for having me.
No moment, Jesse Cannon Mai John Fast.
It's going to be really funny to watch all those rich tech pro us who give arf K Junior all that money have to now answer for his anti Semitism.
What do you see it in here?
As a Jew myself, I need to say, as my grandfather always said, they always come back to picking on the Jews, but really not funny.
RFK finally said the choiet part.
I mean he has said the choir part out a lot, a lot, but he recently said that COVID was designed not to hurt Jewish people and Chinese people as badly as it hurts everyone else.
That there is zero evidence to support this.
It is just completely silly ranting by a person who really really sucks.
And for that OURFK Junior is our moment of Fackeray.
That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday and Friday to hear the best minds in politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.