Maggie Haberman, John Anzalone & Astead Herndon

tell Molly something she's told no one else. Then we're joined by John Anzeloni of the Impact Research, who's also known as Biden's poster, and he's gonna tell some unconventional wisdom about what to look out for in the mid term elections. But first we're joined by The New York Times The Run Up podcast host stead hearn Dog, who's gonna also talk to us about the mid terms. Welcome to Fast Politics. Area podcaster instead, No, I'm just kidding,

New York Times podcaster, Hey an area nottheless? So I an area into street? Is it still in forty seconds? Yes? Right, yeah, it would not be Times Square without that. Without me getting out of port authority to the confluence of smells outside of the New York. Let's talk about your podcast because it's super interesting, and then we will go from there to talk about the subject of your podcast. Your podcast is called The run Up and explained to us

the idea behind it. Yeah, the ideas that we're always in the run up to some election, and that in elections you have the opportunity to explore more than just who's gonna win, but the kind of why and the themes that are animating the country at any given time. And so our goal was to take these elections as a vehicle to really try to explore some like deeper political questions about stuff like our commitment to democracy, or how Christian nationalism has creeped up in politics, or about

why everyone was so prized if I'm the election. So just the basic ideas using elections to talk out the country and where we are rather than just who's up and who's that. So, let's talk about where we are because I don't think we're in a good place. Yeah,

that's my professional podcasting opinion. You know, I I I don't think Viny would disagree with you, But honestly, there's a lot of writing about this idea that we're in the chaos elections that there is not an overriding trend the way there have been in previous elections, but in fact, different micro trends in different places, like we have Kansas that has abortion, we have other places where you know, Republicans have have sought to make the message about crime,

which somehow they somehow people think Republicans are better in crime. I would argue that or not, but I'm curious to know what what you're seeing or do you think this is a chaous election, and if not, what do you think it is? Well, I think we've been in several of those type of elections. I remember the night of the election thinking like, oh wow, like this has really choose your own adventure, Like you can really whatever trend

you want, and there's real evidence and justification for it. Right, if you want to say that Democrats were improving with Latino voters, you could look at Arizona. If you wanted to say they were cratering, you could look at Texas and Florida. If you wanted to say that Trump did better than expected, you could point to a bunch of states where he outperformed polling. If you wanted to say that Democrats had new life you could look at Georgia.

You know, I think that we have been in these kind of state of micro trends across the national landscape because I think that's where a lot of voters are. They can self select their own media, they can live in a kind of bunker of their own kind of politics, and neither of those silos are really speaking to each other. I think in this election you have kind of similar ethings.

I think I'm on the Republican side. You do have a big theme Donald Trump and Trump is um one in the primaries that was pretty true across the landscape of Republican politics. So I do think there's a kind of more unified story on that side. On the Democratic side, I think you have certainly a more traditional slate of candidates who have been using particularly abortion to try to run up enthusiasm on the base. But I think that

that is pretty universal on that side too. So I don't think that there aren't things we can say about

the parties at large. But I do think to your point that each of these elections has a deep local flavor, and so if you're saying why X candidate might win versus why other candidate might win, I don't think you can say a single story about that, but there I think there are I would say Trump is m largely is the is the Republican wrestling, and I think the reaction to Dobbs and the referendum on Biden is largely

the Democratic wrestling. What races are you seeing that you've been sort of interested in that have sort of surprised you or you know where you've been like, what is happening here? Yeah? Yeah, yeah. I think for me, the first question and kind of a core question here, is like what moderate Republicans or swingy voters like there is usually we expected midterm elections for them to really backlash against the party in power. Right, That's how this usually goes.

But is time The biggest decision or political change that came from the country this year didn't come to the president, right, It came from the Supreme Court. And so will those swing voters back Democrats in terms of rallying closer to abortion rights because most of those people do favor of kind of pro choice platform, or will they come around to a Republican to our hammer going on, inflation, hammering,

going crime. I think that for me, the top of the question by November has to be which one one of those issues has the most primacy and why it was clearly not abortion at the beginning of the year and then clearly became abortion rights by the summer and fall. But I don't know if that's where we're gonna end November. App you're kind of seeing polls tell a different story now. I think whichever one of those issues ends up at the top will give us a lot of clues here.

And I think the other thing that has we've been watching all year, it's just how bad some of these Republicans in the candidates are, which have really given Democrats openings that they didn't expect and so of these states. Yeah, I'm curious about this because this week has been like a continual herschel Walker news cycle October surprise that everyone knew about on the Republican side. Anyway, talk to me

about what you're seeing there. In some ways, you're right, this is like a kind of classic political surprise scandal, and in other ways it's the most expected scandal of the year, right, Like there was no one in democratic politics, Republican politics, media who thought herschel Walker was a vetted candidate. Right, there's literally no one. His Republican primary opponents were saying that this was someone who has skeletons in the closet.

There were media reports about his long history of violence against women and others. I mean, there was every sign humanly possible, and the Republican primary electorate in Georgia still

backed him because he was Donald Trump's prefer candidate. That has led us to the again, I think the most expected October surprise where you're seeing these stuff trickle out, and I mean the reporting, you know, the day what the Daily beastis down has been crystal clear, Like there is no question of fact, there's no question of co operation, There's no question of like clarity. Even the Republicans I've

talked to this week haven't really believed his defense. They kind of admit that he would be lying in his statements and response, but what they also say is they

don't care. And I think that that is the key point for us and what we tried to do in terms of understanding where Christian Conservatives are on the podcast recently is that it is clearly become a bargain about power, so much so that like the idea that this individual candidate was hypocritical on abortion is one that a lot of people who are already Republicans right now, who have voted for Donald Trump, they're very ready to cast a side.

They've already backed the president, who has had three divorces, who has had sexual assault allegations, who has like said a whole bunch of bad words in public. They've already done that. Yeah, so voting for herschel Walker is not some step too far for these people. You know, they've already made that kind of strade that specifically about power. It's so interesting that you talk about this because Dana lash said, right, I don't care if he killed baby

bald Eagles. I want the control of the Senate, Right, Like, we're really seeing Republicans pretended to believe in evangelical values until the life of the political candidate was at risk. Right. I would say that's actually a little too simple. Right. I would say that for a lot of evangelicals, this is a long running conversation for evangelicals, and the reporting we did in our show about the way that evangelical

movement has changed. Al Molard ahead of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary was pretty clear that like he felt that the country changed and like five six years ago and has become so secular, so embracing of queer rights, so embracing of pro abroition language, that it can forced him and that this is again his language, not mine, that it forced him to give up how he feels about individual candidates, and it forces him to just back people

who agree with his positions on marriage and agree with his positions on abortion, and that's the only thing that matters him so much so that when I asked them about the capital, if I asked them about mass Triano or Carrie Lake, those were not things he really cared about.

Nor were the individual transgressions of herschel Walker going to be things that they care about because they have already made that type of transaction, you know what I'm saying, And so like you know what, they prefer a candidate that didn't have those kind of contradictions. They would say, yes, but they're not holding them accountable, they're not forcing them, they're not forcing them to change because even like I'm old enough, I'm incredibly old, and so is Jesse. We're

both forty four. We're old enough to remember when like theoretically something like this would kill a candidate. Do you think that Trump was this sea change. I think certainly he was. I think there were sea changes that happened that coal and statewide levels, right that Trump grew from.

But he was the big one, you know. But I mean, and but I mean, let's remember Roy Moore, right, Like I remember doing a story when I was at the Globe during that Roy Moore race where I talked to Alabama pastors who have written a letter of support saying that even if he was guilty of the sexual harassments,

particularly of young women, that was okay with them. And so I'm saying that for people, you know, and a paid for abortion and I don't think is a is is more or less bad than what weary wary Moore

was accused stuff. But it is that for these specifically evangelical conservative Christians, those who are so concerned that America is being lost in this liberal direction, they will take on a herschel Walker or Roy Moore or Donald Trump if it means stopping that liberalization because that is the most important thing and the only thing that politically matters

to them. So you're saying sort of that they are in the Holy War in their view, Yes, they would say, I mean, I mean, yes, I don't think that's a step too far that they would consider themselves in a political holy war. And so Democrats are so far afield that they will accept any person who agrees with their side. What is interesting to you that you're seeing? Like, what are we not seeing from you know? Like what races are interesting to you, What micro political climates are interesting

to you? Tell me what is fascinating that we might be missing? Yeah, I guess to me, like one of the things that we were hoping to do with this show that I really feel and believe is like the whole that Democrats are in is so large that is not just about these mid terms, but actually about the kind of structural political like the governing structures of politics

that put them in the depulse. Let me say, like even if like redistricting, right, yeah, let's let's take it all to be true, and there is a huge turnout for Democrats in this mid terms, specifically around the idea of protecting abortion rights or protecting democracy. If they want to codify Roe v. Way, they got to keep the House, keep this and add two seats a really high bar. But even beyond that they are in massive holes in

state legislatures in most swing states. They're in massive federal judiciary holes that aren't going to really change anytime soon. And there are these backstops that grassroots Republicans have really taken over after for a long kind of twenty year focused arc that Democrats are really catching up too. And so I feel like what has become clear for me

and doing this kind of reporting. It's not that this is something like it's not that the midterms don't matter, or or or all of that, but I think Democrats should be kind of clear with themselves at just how high the bar is that they're at that they need to clear to really be able to make those tangible changes for women seeking abortions in swing states. That's gonna require overcoming state Legend Slater, Jared Manager, That's gonna require overcoming a lot of these kind of federal holes that

they're in. And I think like if there, if we want to be honest, that's journalists. I feel like my core point is just telling the kind of clarity of it. I think democrats underrate just how far they have to make up. Yes, agreed. I Also I'm curious, like, are there any racist like that mayoral in l A or like I mean, are there any of these races that you're super interested in that are interesting that would be

interesting to us? Yeah, for sure. I mean I think that you mentioned may or in l A. I think that's an interesting race. I think the places where Democrats are fighting locally, you know, I just I covered the Progressive prosecutor recall in San Francisco. I think we have seen the recall go out in Philadelphia. You know, you mentioned the question of crime. I think that's where really where those are playing out is within democratic cities. I find that back and forth deeply interesting. I find it

interesting what Senate candidates are focusing on. Right, we have had a president who's really framed this around questions of the democracy. But that's not really what you see candidates running on when you look at a war Knock or a Mandella Barnes or a Fetterman. It's really what Joe Biden and Democrats have done in Congress that's really given

them an ability to reach out to voters. They're not really betting on voters simply just coming out because of what you know, because of the quote unquote big lie that Republicans believe in. They're still focusing on that kind of kitchen table stuff. I think that's interesting because while that might be smart and true and good in the short term, those long term democracy questions, as you well know, Molly, our core to what this political moment is are not

going anywhere. So to me, it's interesting that like what my help democrats is really not the main course, but

that those questions aren't really going away. So I think on both the local level and on the national level, it's interesting the messages to me that Democrats are using to have what might be a better midterm cycle than they expected because it's a little a little askew from at the Trump messages or where Joe Biden's messages, which is specifically about the about democracy and about insurrection and the life. So interesting. Thank you so much for joining us.

Thank you, I appreciate it. Maggie Haberman is a senior political reporter at The New York Times and the analyst that and the author of Confidence Man, The Making of Donald Trump and the Breaking of America. Welcome to Fast Politics, Maggie. Thanks for having me. I'm excited to have you because your book is so good. John Allen, who was a political reporter at NBC News. Any frequent guests to this podcast or hasn't been yet but will be undoubtedly a

frequent guest to this podcast. And I were talking about how it's just so readable. I love hearing that. Thank you, that's wonderful. Has he read it as Trump read it? Yeah, there's only one, you know. I don't think so. I couldn't speak to that, but I would be pretty confident saying that he has not read it. Do you think he will read it? No, I do not, just so you can hide lots of stuff in there. Yeah, I don't. I don't think you think aids will read it and

sort of write coverage on it. I think his aids will tell him what they want to tell him about it, which is how they've always handled coverage relating to him. And we'll see where it goes. There's so much in this book that is, like I think, important warnings for the future. For example, a lot of really interesting early New York stuff that like I have lived through that, I you know, just the weird politics and this sort

of sleeziness of New York politics which really did create him. Yes, And I want to give a huge hat tip to Wayne Barrett, the late grade who paved the way for us all. You know, there were there are There are a lot of a lot of people who have spent I talked about this in the book, who spent a

lot of time forging the early years of Trump. You know, going to Blair Tim O'Brien, who wrote an incredibly important book about Trump and the Odds, Harry Hurt who wrote in the nine nineties, Michael D'Antonio who wrote more recently. Wayne really covered Trump at a critical point, which was you know, his book came out when Trump was actually back on the rise again in the early nineties. But he captured just how corrupt every aspect of life that

Trump was dealing with was. And so what I tried to do, because you know, I'm from New York and I covered New York politics for a very long time, capture for readers all of this dysfunction that he comes from, both his familial dysfunction and environmental dysfunction, and the racial strife of New York and the machine tribal politics of New York, and how he exported that to Washington, and how much he expected the world was going to work like that because he tends to think everyone is just

like him, and that has continued in our politics. I'm glad you talked about that because the thing that I'm struck by, and I feel like the thing that you've heard you talk about an interviews and you write about this in the book, is that I feel like we in the media, all of us and just normal people, kind of always assume that he'll take the owl, you know, and he'll just say, like it's enough, like I'm not going to do this, you know, I'm doing something terrible

to my family in the country. But there will never be a moment like that. There will be a moment like that if he thinks that there's a reason for him to stop that relates to him, right, I mean, there will be a moment to stop if it's that he can prevent himself from getting charged criminally or everything with him, his leverage, and so that's what it relates to.

He never understands that whatever complaints he might have about, you know, aspects of media coverage or like when he was president, and no president likes their media coverage, but he just took it to you know, most presidents also don't in the US, don't call the press the enemy

of the people. He just he treats everything as if it's all justified and kind of all flat and the same, and so people keep thinking there's going to be some moment where he gets you know, for lack of a better word, shamed into into changing his behavior, and that's just not going to happen, and so sort of it's part of this kind of rolling reaction to news coverage right from a lot of people. It's like X didn't have the impact that his critics thought it would, so

therefore there's something wrong with the courage. And it's really just that, you know, voters make the decisions in this country. A lot of what would have been disqualifying for another candidate who had not been part of the pop culture fabric for decades doesn't apply to him. So that's what

I want to talk to you about. There's a tranche of people in the media, largely on the left but sometimes on the right, that are super mad at coverage in a way that I'm always struck by this, like your job is sort of to recount what happens, right, and my job is to get information and and put it, you know, put it in public, which is really what I've what I've tried to do. And there's been plenty of stories that I've missed that I wished I had,

that that our competitors have had. But this is I think, just sort of a again to your point about being mad, is I think that he is the biggest demagogue that I can I think that we have ever seen in this country, just given the scale of his support and the platform he had and still has frankly even off

social media. But he just you know, he has enormous support within the Republican Party, and I think that in his critics feel like the things that they consider disqualifying ought to be disqualifying for everybody else, and it just isn't. That's just not how it works. And reporters jobs are to get you know, news reporters jobs or to get information, and that's what we tried to do. The thing I've always been interested in is until now Trump is um

has not scaled. Right, Like you know, Roy Moore did not get elected despite trying the Trump playbook and in Alabama, a very red state. So now we have these mid terms where we have a bunch of I mean, herschel Walker is the most obvious example, right herschel Walker has a lot of trumpy problems, right, I mean, probably more

than Trump has. I would argue, this is pretty different, to be honest, Yeah, please do Yeah, I mean I think and and to clear Molly, I'm not sure it's going to matter in terms of any I think that we're going to see what what the bar is in terms of what the voters will tolerate. But Trump is a different phenomenon because of what I said before, which is that he has been part of you know, he's been so defined for so long, right, he made himself synonymous with wealth between the Art of the Deal and

then The Apprentice. And one of the things I write about is how striking it was to me in sixteen in the Iowa Caucuses, how people told me they were caucusing for him, and one man said, I watched him run his business, he met the Apprentice. The Apprentice was reality television. But you know the line between news and entertainment, for it was actually Roger Stone who said this to

me once upon a time. The line between news and entertainment is thin for viewers on the other side of the television and people who are not in the business, and so everybody has not had that, right Why Moore did not have that? Herschel Walker has more of it. He's a he's a sports star, and he's more of a known quantity. But I just don't know whether this impacts everybody else. I do think the candidates get further than they would otherwise since then. But I have to

say I think some of that. Trump sort of acknowledged this in an interview where he mentioned herschel Walker and then talked about how times have changed and how reactions have changed. I think some of this started pretty with the Tea Party and just how angry and remember, I mean my whole theory of the cases that Trump has seized on tea party energy and he didn't create it, but he fueled it and benefited from it, right right, right,

No question. There was so much anger at the mainstream media among Republicans after the twelve election, which has always been a little strange because there's Republicans who hated Mitt Romney and yet they hate the media because of Romney coverage. But there's been so much antipathy that I think that it was changing already talked to me about the Trump Ivanka Jared stuff, because that's super interesting, which part that they had he might have fired them. I mean, do

you think that is you know, can we talk about that? So, you know, I was a little surprised that this was the thing he seized on. I guess I'm not really when I think about it, just to criticize just because it involves his daughter and it's an easy thing for him to say is not true. And though I stand by the reporting, I had multiple sources on it, but we reported in real time that he had been talking

about having Jared Navaca leave. There was a There were several instances where he was preparing to dismiss Kushner and it would have required she would have gone with him. He would say to her, why do you want to be here? You know it was it was sympathetically voiced, but Kushner was getting a lot of bad headlines during

the Muller investigation. Trump would ask John Kelly and Don McGann, the White House counsel, to help export them and they would decline because they would basically say, you know, you're not going to back us if we do this, and when they come to you and we just don't want to be in that position. And in one instance, there was a tweet that Trump was preparing to send saying they were leaving, and Kelly stopped him saying, you know, as many people would you, you don't handle things this

way with your family. And then Trump, who was just incredibly conflict of verse, did not appear to have the conversation. Trump considered bumbing Mexico. This is a story that is about Trump's views of aggression and also Trump's impression ability based on how who he thinks someone is. One of the things that was pretty striking through line in my reporting Molly was that just how much he really didn't

understand who did what in the government. I mean, this is why I know there's this theory that he's really learned, but he really hasn't. Now, you know, by twenty nineteen, he still had no idea who ran the Office of Legislative Affairs for him. And you know, he tried giving the charge to one aid, thinking he was taking it from a different day, but the different day wasn't actually the person who ran it, and it was anyway, So he's in a meeting related to fentanyl crossing the southern border,

and it's a it's a drug meeting. And in this meeting is Brett Jerwar, who was an admiral in the Public Health Services Corps. I probably mangling the actual title, but he would wear his dress uniform. It's a commissioned corps. It's not a part of the armed forces, which is really important. But so Jerwar is in this meeting and he suggests, according to people familiar with what happened, he suggests putting quote unquote lead to target, which is a

term for bombing. And Trump gets infatuated with this idea and starts asking Mark Esper, the Secretary of Defense, about bombing Mexico. And he talks about patriot missiles. And you know, you wouldn't use patriot missiles. And so it's a it's a story of I mean, but this is it's you know, it ends up sounding funny, but it's really scary. Is this is how this is how you can end up with war? Correct, You can accidentally find yourself in a

pretty dangerous conflict. Trump worried abouts Laye. Maxwell said about him, he was just gonna go. He was in a meeting with campaign AIDS, and she had pretty recently been picked up by the FBI. And the New York Post ran a story saying that she was going to unquote name names. And he starts talking about the story and he says, did you see that in the Post the other day? And he says, did she say anything about me? What James took his meeting Elaine and not or author of

the story. It was also old woman. He knew Jeffrey Epstein, he knew her. You know, there's a there's an anecdote in the book that's based on reporting from Mark Singer, who was writing a really remarkable piece for The New Yorker that in the nineties that I would urge everyone to read. But Gilliane, I believe, was on on the plane for this anecdote that he writes about in the story, on her way down to Florida with him. These are

people who he knew socially. There's you know, there's pictures of them, but he just in these meetings he will reveal what's on his mind. Yeah, it seems like Trump used Rudy as his man, right, like his sort of Roger Stone, you know, his sort of fix are. And now I feel like Rudy Roger Stone. And also Michael Cohen originally sort of all had that same role. You tell me if I'm wrong, You're not wrong. I mean an old friend of Trump's once said to me that

Trump likes lawyers who will do anything right. He sees no difference between you know, the attorney general works for the government and you know Rudy, who was a personal lawyer, and he likes having fixers. You know, there's a I write about how Andrew Stein, the former New York City Council president who has known Trump forever, at one point was complaining to Trump about why do you keep Michael Cohen around? Because a lot of people in Trump's orbit

clashed with Michael Cohen back in the day. And Trump, you know, said something with the effect of he has his purpose or he has a purpose, and that's how Trump sees all of these people, and it's really how he saw Rudy. But it's just so weird because they really weren't friends. Giuliani and Trump decades earlier. There was

it was a transaction, and Giuliani helped Trump. And I don't get into this in the book, but Giuliani helped Trump with um in way, or least people suspected he helped him with a building that he was trying to build near the U N. And they engaged with each other. But but Giuliani didn't treat Trump or think of Trump particularly seriously. What has emerged since it's they've known each other a long time and they come from the same place. And I would argue that in terms of racial paranoia,

Giuliani was was kind of a proto Trump. It's a very different thing there. They were not the same person and they were not pals. So interesting, What did you learn writing this book, because you knew a lot already? I learned a lot. Actually, I mean I I you know, I learned a lot of new I wanted to I just I just want to make one thing clear. I

think he's really important. This book is intended as a character study, and it's I wanted to paint a larger, fuller portrait of him and of the world and they he came, you know, And that definitionally meant that I learned some new things along the way. But the goal was was a story, as opposed to just sort of individual anecdotes and and so forth. Those moved the story along. I learned new things about the depths of the kinds of racist statements he would make over time, and I

was pretty surprised. I had additional affirmation as to how calculating he is. You know, even though he's not strategic, he is in the moment calculating. I would say, those are the main things. And then there were new things that I learned about the presidency, like him flushing documents down the toilet, which I did not know while he was president. And you did actually release that made a real point to release that before the book came out.

I released it eight months before the book came out, That's correct, And I think that was a real case of like you wanting to get the information out there because you thought there was a legal president. I thought it was really important. Yeah, and I think that's really important and also quite disgusting that he's how is the plumbing handling that it wasn't handling it? Well, that was part of why I thought out about this. Thank you, Maggie.

I hope you'll come back. I definitely will. Thank you. Molly. John an Selonis, a poster at Impact Research. Welcome Too Fast Politics, John, Molly very excited to have you so close to the mid terms. Am I allowed to call you Biden's pollster. You can call me anything you want that would be fair, okay, Or you can call me Gretchen Whitner's pollster, Steve Cisslack, or I mean, I can keep going Sheldon white House, you know a RP. A lot of those people have been on my previous podcasts.

But anyway, so I'm curious to talk to you. We're in this like thirty is it like thirty two days now, it's something like that. Give track of them then it'll just you know, make you crazy. Yeah, So what are you seeing trend wise? I mean, I've had this idea because I've read something that got me like obsessed with this idea. And now everyone I've interviewed, I've asked about it and they all think I'm wrong. But I have this idea that this is like a chaos elections where

things are moving in a very weird way. So I would actually say that chaos isn't the word I would use. Here's how I see this selection cycle is that d C and talking heads love predictability, and you know, elections in midterms are very predictable, Like if you are Republican president and in the midterms, you know the Democrats too great. And if you're a Democratic president and you know you're

in the mid terms, Republicans do great. And there's actually a pretty good data in modern history that is like, if the president, regardless of Democratic Republican, you know, his job rating is under fifty, which is Biden's is although we've his job rating has gotten better over the last couple of months, that on average you lose thirty seven to forty seats in the House and I can't remember the number in the center of making it's five. And

so everyone loves that predictability. And that's kind of how this election cycle began, that Democrats, we're going to get their ass kicked, and we are really believed it all the way up until about May four. I either had you or someone who worked with on around April or May, and it was like we just despaired the whole time. It was just a death watch, is what it was.

And the fact is is that you know, there's all of these different tensions in this election, and why I wouldn't call it chaos is because it's actually been a straight line. I would call it the toss up election, like re Battlegrounds Day for basically Senate and Governor are toss ups. But I think that for us to put

we really got, you gotta put it in context. Because the generic ballot, when you have seventy percent of Americans thinking the country is going in the wrong direction and having given it a negative job rating for the economy and over fifty percent believing there's there's a recession, etcetera, etcetera, people ballot advantage for Republicans should be plus eight plus ten, and it's dead even. And so these tensions that there's all these confluences, and it's like it's like three rivers

Stadium in Pittsburgh. You know where the three rivers merge. What are the Ohio, the Monoga, Hala? And I can't remember the third one, damnit. But my point is is that you have all these confluences of things that normally do not happen to give you a competitive environment. And so on the Democratic side, you know why I use May one and May fourth. It's like on May one there was despair, and on May four was the leak of the Scotus opinion overturn Roe v. Wade. Then you

had Buffalo, and then you had Vivaldi. Then you had I think June nine, you had the January six hearing, start America learned a lot of new things about what was going on, and all these Republicans are like, you know, defending the the insurrectionist and then June boom, reality comes

not hypothetical overturning. And so you have all of that as well as President Biden actually getting his agenda pass with you know, the Bipartisan Gun Bill, the chips at which brings you know, the supply chain back from overseas in China, and the Inflation Reduction Act which does all these wonderful things. And so by August it's the Republicans who are on the defense of the Democrats, have a message, etcetera, etcetera.

But when Labor Day bell rings, I've been doing this a long time and the one thing that always happens on Labor Day is people put their jerseys on right, and Republicans kind of always consolidate their vote. And maybe more importantly, a billion dollars was spent in September on Senate races, So Republicans were alive again, like they you know, they were beating up Mandela or they're beating up Tim Ryan, or they were competing back and forth in their narrative,

and so Republicans come home, they start spending money. The race is real and a dialogue, and there's really tough headwinds for Democrats. So you have one confluences the headwinds. One confluences are these outside things that happen row guns, you know, democratic accomplishments. And what's the third confluence. It's the craziest on the Republican party. They just did a terrible job nominating. So you have odds at unfavorable, you have jd Vance, you have Masters, you have Ted Bud.

When you have rivers that meet, it's all muddy, right, So this is kind of the muddy toss up election. And it's really at this point when you have the herschel Walkers of the world against a great candidate like Warnock, you really have headwinds versus head cases. That's literally what's going on here, the headwinds of the Democrats and the subpar candidates of Republicans, and there's all these people out

there who have to make a decision. You know, right now I would say that you know, of all, you know, whites in Georgia are still voting for herschel will that change over the most recent one? Well, guess what judge Roy Moore got, you know, sixty eight percent of whites against Doug Doug Jones. He won, right, he got just enough of them. But that gives you the context of when people put on their jersey, they also put on blinders, and so there's just gonna be this grudge match, right

and on election day. I think everyone right now kind of understands that we're in a toss up environment where there's difficult headwinds. We have great candidates, good money, and a really good message on the positive and negative side, and we're all waiting to see what happens. Warnock is up against Walker. Walker has had all of these October surprises. He is continually doing these ads in Georgia where he talks to the camera and says Warnock is cutting funding

for the police. It's not true, but he's doing it and it works. And then all the ads are crime, crime, crime, crime, crime. Why Warnock has a ton of money. Why is Warnock just not getting in there and debunking or is it too soon for that? No, No, I think he is. Listen, crime is a big issue right now. You see it against Mendela Barnes in Wisconsin. You see it against Fetterman, who was chairman of the parol board. Right, these are like easy things. You know, you're you see it right

now in race. No one's watching, but the Republicans are hitting the form or Supreme Court Justice Sherry Beasley basically overturning a pedophilia case. So you're you know, again, it's not just pure crime. It's often there's often an angle to it that intersected with that Democrats life, right, I mean Federman was ahead of a parole board. You know, Sherry Beasley was a Chief Justice, so she had to

rule on cases, etcetera, etcetera. I think that there's not a Democrat out there who doesn't do well defending themselves on crime. Allah what Joe Biden did, I mean, we took no ship from Trump. We'll try to say we're defending We're just like not the truth. We're against a fund. Matter of fact. You know, we have uh money, more money in there for place, YadA, YadA YadA, and you you pivot and you move. And I think all of these candidates do a good job doing that. I don't

think that there's any time when we don't fight. And a matter of fact, I can bring one thing up which really just made me aggravates me. Actually anything, Yeah, let's hear it. Well, I mean fellow Democrat Gavin Newson when he says that we don't fight that Democrats plus the fight, Well, you've got it, you know. I'm sorry,

but that is that doesn't pass the smell test. And we go out there and say helpful things because there's got a race I'm doing right now or watching where there's a senate candidate, Democratic, or governors or congression that are not fighting like hell. Democrats are out there fighting like hell right now. By the way, so is our president, like he is out there killing it. And Democrats are fighting right now And for anyone to say that we

are not fighting is absolutely ridiculous. And by the way, the reason that we are dead even in the generic ballot and every race is a toss up, is because we're out there fighting and we should be getting our asses kicked by plus eight or plus ten in the

generic ballot. So everyone needs to just kind of keep the expectations in in check and put this cycle in context that the predictable thing was for them to win thirty seven or forty seats in the House and five seats in the Senate, and we are keeping this a competitive competitive election cycle. Quite frankly, you know, good for Democrats, right.

I mean, in my mind, the situation with the situation when Newsom is that Newsom is trying to run for president and and I say that neither are negatively or positively, but he's just coming. I mean, he's running ads in Florida. Like, you don't do that before a mid term unlus you have some grand plans and designs. Right. That means it's negatively,

I don't get it, stuck on it. I just think that someone has to stand up and say, no, you know you're wrong, quit playing politics with your presidential campaign. And Democrats are fighting like hell, and the and the fact is is that the reason that we have all

of these toss ups is because we're fighting like hell. Yeah. No, I agree, And I appreciate that we get card in your feedback loop of self loathing after camp after campaigns, and I don't want to project what's going to happen, but the fact is is that you know, if we hold Republicans to twenty seats in the House and I'm not saying that that's what it's going to be. I'm just give an example. We have cut in half with the historical trend is yeah, no, and and listen. I

think there's a really good point here. But I'm curious. One of the things that Biden has done, which I actually think is kind of great and unusual, is that he's allowed candidates who are running and read districts to run against him. You know, I think he's been generous in a way. I mean, we had Max Rose on this podcast. He is running in a very red district in Staten Island. You know he would I mean, I do think that that there's sort of more of a

he's not a vengeful guy. You can criticize him in a way that a lot of other presidents you haven't been able to. But I think that there is a bigger point in the election cycle when we look at it historically. After the election, which is one of the reasons Democrats are competitive is because our president United States, who is the leader of the Democratic Party and I think does a good job of it, actually passed an

amazing agenda ino. I mean, these things were important. I mean, if he didn't get you know, chips passed an i RA pass and and things like that, quite frankly, and may one, we didn't have those, and it was tough to have a positive message we got. You know, he got his agenda passed, and no one thought he could

do it, and everyone has given up on him. And I think the bigger point of Visa VI President Biden quite frankly, turns out to be his leadership and his vision on his agenda, which gave all these congressional democrats or candidates really important bullets in their two ds. You're not getting any arguments from me here, and we've talked a lot about that, and you are in a world here where he's done a lot. But the question is more like, I'm curious, and this is from my own

edification as much as anything. There's such a baked in idea that Republicans are good on crime, but there's never any like actual questions about policy. For example, so herschel Walker, Ted Cruz, everyone is defending herschel Walker, including I'm not sure that this is such a great look at nude Gangridge and Ted crew said, well, judge herschel Walker on his policy. Well, again, I think that they I think Herschel Walker's message right now is judge me on my

redemption and judge me on grace. And I think that that is a signal to evangelicals to give him a pass. The problem was when he wrote his book on redemption. He wrote the book a year before he paid for the abortion. Yeah, listen, I'm not a big judger of people who have you know, like, right, we're all frail humans and etcetera, and speak for yourself. But yes, you know, I believe in redemption. But he now is kind of

like beyond you know, trusting. If you will, right, I'll kind of like be on the side of you know, his son Christian before I go on on Herschel's side. But anyway, it's again, we haven't seen kind of new polls, and we're gonna see them. And my guess is it's probably gonna be a dead even race, or maybe warnut will have an advantage. But this has been again, my point is, this has been a straight line election. Movement

is glacial. Here Republicans consolidated their vote after spending a billion, you know, half a billion dollars, they probably spend half of it. Right, This is not unusual and everyone in d C kind of like, oh my god, you know what's happening. Well, what's happened in is what's happened every post Labor day in my fifteen cycles as a Polster, which is there's some consolidation because people start spending, our candidate starts spending a lot of money. So there's no

freaking out here. This is what normally happens. Um. I think that people will start saying, this is just like two fourteen, where August was a good month for Democrats. You know, September there was you know, consolidation and looked, you know, uh, look better for Republicans, and then the bottom fell out for Democrats. I don't think we're in a bottom falling out election cycle because everyone's put their jersey on and Doug in their feet, their their faith.

We're in overtime. This is definitely an overtime game already. And I always say that, you know my analogy which no one probably will like. I'm an Alabama fan, and you know last year's Iron Bowl where they play Auburn, Alabama was ranked third, Auburn was unranked. Well, in this case, you know, the Democrats were Auburn. They came in there and they almost wanted and they took Alabama, the number

three ranked team, to four overtimes. Democrats are literally taking Republicans into overtime, like they are supposed to literally walk into this election and wipe us out, and we are keeping them close. I love you, but I can't understand what you're talking about. I don't understand sports at all. But I just want to have one last question. There are a lot of people who are listening to podcast, like my husband Mac Greenfield, who want to give money,

want to support our big Democrats. What races should they go for? Oh? I mean, you know, jeez, I can't play favorites, but I mean put it this way. I think the race that um will get more attention on October as these other races kind of you know, move around is North Carolina. I love the I love the

sharing have money to Shary Beasley. I don't work for her, but my point is is that race has been dead even the entire year, is basically going to be you know, you know, it hasn't been like a four month race where there's just been this big back and forth. And I think she's a great candidate. Former Supreme Court justice, so she has real hefton waight to her, she's really good. She's a good candidate, and her TV commercials are good.

And Ted budd is a guy who called the insurrectionists on January six, you know, patriots right, and he sponsored bills to do a national ban on abortion. So watch that race. That is my kind of Georgia race where Biden one and no one thought it could happen. So I think that that is, without a doubt the race.

And the fact is is that I think most people believe that George is going to a runoff, and so Warnock is gonna need your money and enough to beat Herschel and I think he can do it, and it may be deja vu all over again and be the race that desides the Senate. I hadn't even thought to be anxious about that, Thank you, John. Last question, trust the polls, yes? Or now watch where the candidate is not the margin? Good Neal, Molly, John fast Hi Jesse, I hear we're going to talk about a subject we're

not gonna like. Yeah, as someone who has two seniors, two senior dogs who are thirteen years old, which is nice, I think ninety and dog years or twelve years old. They're quite old, and a rescue puppy who is too. This is like absolutely the fucking just gets me so upset, and you have clank. So doctor Oz, Mr Abortion is murder. Well, you'll be surprised to hear, or maybe won't be that he actually did murder a bunch of dogs three hundred plus and also bunnies and also dogs bunnies gave them

heart stuff. She actually, as his employer at the time, was ordered to pay a two thousand dollar penalty for violating the Animal Welfare Act. I mean, I'm sorry, but like, imagine how bad it was that one dog was kept alive for a month, continuing experimenting on her during her unstable, painful condition. He could be the next senator from Pennsylvania. So he gets a mighty fuck you for torturing animals

from me and a mighty moment of funckery. There is literally no person lower than someone who tortures animals or who isn't in any way involved with that. So they get a hearty fuck you for me. But the way I think of it, as we were mad at Mitt Romney for one act of this, but three, I mean the dogs survived, right. I mean, I'm not. I would never do it. It's a certainly a terrible but anyway, the point is, you know, it's disgusting, it's revolting. It is our moment of creat today. That's it for this

episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday to your the best minds and politics makes sense of all this chaos. If you enjoyed what you've heard, please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going. And again, thanks for listening.