Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics where we discuss the top political headlines with some of today's best minds. And the North Carolina Senate has banned wearing masks in public places. We have such a great show for you today. On the tape podcast, Dan Nathan talks to us about the new economic numbers and what we can expect from the US economy in the coming months.
Then we'll talk to Inside Elections Jacob Rubashkin about the races that will determine what our government looks like in twenty twenty five. But first we have the host of the Time of Monsters the Nations ged here. Welcome back to Fast Politics, ged.
Here, and good to be back.
Let's talk about it. It's Supreme Court season aka watching six lunatics remake our federal government in the image of the Koch Brothers.
Discuss actually like today, there was a little bit of good news because there was the kind of fear that the courts would follow the attempt of the Fifth Circuit to basically run their like large price of the government illegal and then return America the glory days of child labor.
That's still on the agenda.
But they decided today. It was out that day, So what is grateful for whatever small verses by can offer us, that's a more positive sign. What were the other cases?
There are more cases coming. I want you to sort of talk us through. You wrote this piece about the anti war movement needing to claim its victories, So talk to us about what that means, because I do think there's been a really interesting shift in American life when it comes to being against foreign wars.
Well, yeah, that's actually absolutely a really good point. But I think on the current stuff, a lot of people are very mad at Biden, and I'm one of them. Support of what ness Hiwu's governments has been doing has been above and beyond is a con for like many months, and he should have acted earlier, but it is all the more striking considering who he is and his history
on this issue. He is taking steps that no previous American president has in terms of cutting back on sending weapons now, so leaving this ideal should have happened sooner. It is happening, and I don't think it would have happened if it weren't for you know, the protests that we're seeing not just on campuses, but earlier the end committed move in. So I think Biden realizes this coalition isn't behind him on this. And the polling is quite striking.
I mean, this majority close to the Israeli war in Gaza, but it's a super majority among Democrats. People voted for Biden in twenty twenty. You're looking at like, you know, depending on the poll, seventy seventy five percent of post the anti war movement deserves credit and they should push on. I think that what he want to hear is among some people is almost self sabotage of like oh, you know, like it's so tiny, he doesn't really read it. He's
going to reverse it. And the attitude, well it's too little, too late, as he like an an ongoing political moment. Like I think that's the wrong attitude. I think you have to say, like, okay, this guy is starting to listen to us, something that Donald Trump would never do. By the way, and of course we got to push
him more. We've got to push him far there. We're not gonna like relent on pushing him, but he has moving forward, and we have to like, you know, create an incentive structure so that Biden knows that you know, if he wants to get the approval. He's getting some approval.
Now you'll get even more if he goes further. My piece of really criticizing the sort of self sabotage of people within the movement that are like trying to deny the significance of what we're seeing, because I actually do think it's it's pretty significant where Biden is going, and I think we're probably gonna see more of that, and I would have I think, you know, beyond Biden, like there's a lot of indication that people in the broader administration,
include the State devironment, aren't very happy with what Israel is doing. You know, I think what has to reach out to those people and create conditions where they feel emboldened to speak out it and they feel embolded.
That but there was a real aggressive when today on marijuana. Will you talk a.
Little bit about that again, This is something actually somebody's very related to, like Israel, in the sense of like, you know, there's something that I might feel like, well, Biden is done is a little bit earlier. There's a little bit people have been pushing him to do for like a long time. I think Biden's history and who he is is maybe pertinent to this. It's maybe not something that comes natural to him for like a bunch
of reasons, including I think personal reasons. Having said that, he is someone who can be pushed, he's something someone who can be moved, And to me, like that's the most pertinent political lesson to be learned from this.
Yeah, I think so too. And I actually think like we've seen this with other things in Biden world, where he sort of makes this choice to do the more progressive thing, and it's quite cool. I mean with the marijuana staff, that's something that pretty much across the board people really support and could be meaningful in all sorts of ways.
Oh no, absolutely no, it's gonna like materially make people's lives better. It is something that has like super majority of support. And I have to ask myself, you know where the popular stat you know, like there's a whole wing of these sort of Savai political consultants and strategists. He were saying, Yo, we have to do the popular thing. This is like doing the popular thing, although they were for some weird reason, they never foregrounded this issue as
one of the popular things to do. I will also mention a lot of the student dead reliefs that we've been seeing. The only thing I would maybe say is, you know, I'd like to see the White House get a little bit more on front on some of this stuff, where to maybe call us this more into like a message of like see what we're doing. And for whatever reason, like that little bit is not quite coalescing, although that could change, is you know, the election heats up here.
We are, we're ten thousand days from this election. We're all gonna die. All anyone talks about is freaking out about out this whole thing. Jesse just said, one hundred and seventy three days. No, Jesse, it's ten thousand days. Give us a little good news.
Well, actually, I think like even in some of the bad news people are reporting, I think there is a kind of good news because I noticed that, like all, you know, like there were some polls showing Biden is behind in the swing stage, but those same polls show that the actually Democratic candidates for the Senate in those
places are doing well and are overperforming Biden. Now, if you think about it, like are there really people that are going to in vast numbers vote for a Democratic senatorial candidate and.
Leave the top of the ticket blank.
It seems crazy, Yeah, are going to vote for Biden?
I don't really know.
We want Trump, yeah exactly.
So I actually think that what those polling shows is I think, like the Democratic agenda is popular. You know, that's congruent with what we saw in the mid terms and what we've seen in special elections, and that a lot of the poor polling that Biden's having, it's just people registering their dissatisfaction, Like they're gonna vote for Biden, but they don't want to say so right now because they're mad at him. We're disappointed them for various reasons.
So I actually think, if you know, if I don't encourage anyone to be obsessed with the polls at all.
Especially one hundred and seventy three days aft.
Yeah, but if you are like actually like look at the fact that, hey, you know, like the Democratic Party is in good shape, and ask to yourself, if the party is in good shape, what is the likely results for the top figure. The other I think kind of good news is like the debate stuff, which I thought was a really smart move.
I hear you're free on Wednesdays.
You know, they're going to have fairly early debates. I think, contrary to popular wisdom, Biden does well and then Trump as he does poorly. And I actually think that fairly early on the starkness of the choice between Biden and Trump is going to become a parent and I think that's actually going to start narrowing this thing and solidifying. You. Yeah, I actually think like overall, you know, I don't. I would not say people should be terrified. I think that
it's going to be like a tight election. People are gonna have to pull things together.
You'd rather be the Dems than the Republicans, I think so. Yes, Donald Trump sits in a courthouse right now.
Yeah, well, I mean that's the other thing. But you know, we've seen the Republicans embrace of Trump, and I think that's come with some political costs. But like the extent that they're embracing him now, not just that Trump's in the courthouse, but like all these party leaders are joining him the courthouse and are joining him to like insult the judge.
I think that hurts him. I think it hurts the party if you want to keep the House.
And yeah, ways, I don't think we can measure yet, but I think that, you know, the full extent that they've embraced not just Trump, but Trump's criminality, that's going to have a lasting legacy. I mean I think, like, you know, like January sixth had a lasting legacy, and that's why the Dems overperformed in the rich terms. And like this is like, you know, this is kind of a variation on January sixth. It's an open defiance of
the rule of law. And I think there's a lot of people, you know, might not agree with the Dems on all political things, but they kind of understand the United States has to be like a nation of laws, and like what Trump is doing now it's like you're staring into the abyss of being like, you know, like let's go to court anarchy, you know.
So let's talk about Donald Trump in court. Right now, his former lawyer is being cross examined by his current lawyer, Todd Blande, who is a prosecutor. I mean, this is this weird moment in Trump world where Trump has actually gotten pretty good lawyers and now he's making them be bad lawyers by bossing them around.
Yeah, I do mean this is one reason why usually he has bad lawyers because they're the ones that put up with it. Oh, I mean it's interesting. I've thought about this a little bit, Like it is interesting that the one place you can get good lawyers is in a kind of criminal case. That's maybe because he's more used to like that kind of legal scenario than he is with some of the more issues of constitutional law or election law, that he's deafliped with this kind of
case involving you know, sort of mafio. So like kickbacks and favors is Donald Trump's terrain. But having said that, like, yeah, I'm not super optimistic about this as a legal case, Like I think it's actually kind of hard to draw these ways in which they can attack the witnesses.
It's a little hanky.
Yeah.
Yeah. But having said that, I mean, like, you know, if anyone's gonna sabotage a legal case.
It's going to be Donald Trump, right, It's true.
Oh yeah, yeah, no, I you know, his recording court has left been that great. I mean you have, especially what considers all the court cases that were brought coming out of the twenty twenty election. So yeah, I actually think it's kind of been fascinating to watch and maybe the root of all this is that he's always felt he's been about the law, and unfortunately for most of
his life he's been right. Like, how many things has this guy done that are like, you know, borderline criminal or criminal that we're never brought up, we'll never know. It's a lot and this sense of impunity. I can do what I want, I can the judges. That's really a product of a lifetime. But have you said that. I think very ordinary people watching this stuff, you know, like I can't feel that they would be very sepulate
to Trump. And I think that, you know, there's like this fundamental attack on the rule of law, not just why what he did criminally, but by the attacks on the judges and the political attacks. I think that's going to resonate.
Yeah, you know, I think so much about how he thinks he's doing something brilliant here by making this case about law and not about his criminality, and like it's worked for him with the primary voters, who are so predisposed to him that they'll pretty much go along with anything. But I'm not convinced that you can win anyone else who doesn't have total Trump derangement syndrome.
Yeah, I know, I think that's right. I think that he's decided to make it in a way that people have to choose, like, you know, do they go into the Trump culture or do they like go along with the normal reality that they've lived in their own life. That's helped win the primaries, is not people that were already in the Trump call that if that's the choice, then he wins. But like if you're putting into the
broader public, no, I don't think he wins. And in fact, I think it will remind people why they don't like him, which I think is actually very important. I think, like, you know, he's been out of the spot like long enough that some people have forgotten. Maybe it's start the big takeaway of the court cases, Like it's a big reminder of why you do not want this guy that I does. You know, why he's a bad and dangerous fan.
Yeah, but it is interesting to see members of Congress, the Speaker of the United States has representatives people for whom they should know better up there being like this is our guy.
Yeah.
No, you know what it reminded me of, Like as a New Yorker, you'll remember mister Gotti, well respected businessman, a member of the community and was a very stricting thing. That's like, you know, because he was a bobster with as certain support in the community, there were people who rallied to him. She's like, this is very similar, except that, you know, like it's not just like a small community in New York. It's like the weight of like, you know,
one of the two major political parties on one level. Like, to me, this is the threat, right, the threat of a trump pized Republican party that shares his contempt for law. And that's a scary thing. But I think that's also something Joe Biden can run on. Everything is already in very stark relief, and one of the things Democrats have to do is to just make sure everyone in America knows this is the choice.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, I agree, a really good point. Let's talk about Eric Adams for two minutes. Sure, he's our mayor in New York whatever. He was recently in Rome with the Pope. Can you just make it make sense?
Well, I guess Eric Addam likes to see himself as an international figure. I mean it is a kind of perhaps charming thing. I actually remember, like he's running for Rayre. He said that he had wanted to be buried in Israel, and people asked where, and he said the goal at Heights, which is actually disputed territory, or is actually Syrian territory. So I guess New York has a very international mayor.
But perhaps the other thing is, like, you know what, you're as widely hated as Eric Adams is, having so much trouble domestically, maybe you go abroad. That's what sort of presidents who are trouble often do. It happens that I guess if you're aware of New York, you can do the same thing exactly.
Jesus Christ, Thank you jet here, thank you Spring is here. And I bet you are trying to look fashionable, So why not pick up some fashionable all new Fast Politics merchandise. We just opened a news store with all new designs just for you. Get t shirts, hoodies, hats, and top bags. To grab some, head to Fastpolitics dot com. Dan Nathan is the host of the On the Tape podcast and a c NBC Fast Money contributor.
Dan Nathan my John Cast.
Welcome. I am so happy to have you here. You know you're like one of my people.
Well you know you're one of my must listens to three times a week on Fast Politics. So it is my sincere pleasure to be on with you this week.
So let us talk about all of the economic news yesterday, because there was a lot on Wednesday. We had like a number of numbers. So explain to us what all those numbers were, sort of break it down for us.
All right, let's do it, okay, So listen.
You know, I'm mostly focused on the markets, and a lot of this economic data that comes out almost every day is important to how investors perceive the health of the economy, and thus they expressed those views in the markets, whether it be the stock market, whether they be the bond market, commodities and a like. So yesterday was the
April CPI reading, that's the main reading for inflation. It came in slightly below expectations, but it's still up three point four percent year over year, right, And you could say, well, that's good, because I remember a year and a half ago those inflation readings were coming in north of nine percent or so.
But here's the problem. Disinflation.
While it's great for you know, most consumers, it's still really bad for a lot of consumers. So at three point four percent. That is up year over year, right, so if you're spending on a whole host of things, it's still up. It's down from the highs, you know, almost two years ago, but it's still up. There was also some data out there on retail sales which were weaker than expected. So the longer that you have periods of high inflation, right sooner or later, it's going to
weigh on consumer confidence and retail sales. And that's what
we're seeing here a little bit. And we also have the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell was out earlier in the week basically saying that interest rates are going to remain higher for probably a little longer than they had expected because they're still trying to battle high levels of inflation with high interest rates, which is also weighing on a certain set of consumers that use basically credit to finance a whole host of different purchases.
And also people want to buy houses. I mean, the fundamental problem here, I feel like is we're in a kind of mobi a strip which is high inflation makes interest rates higher. High interest rates makes it impossible to buy a house. Air go, you have housing being more expensive. The only way to get that number down is probably to cut interest rates.
Well, yeah, and if they start to cut interest rates too early, you run the risk of basically inflation heating back up again. So it is a bit of a conundrum that the Federal Reserve has right now. There are massive political implications for this. You know, a lot of folks think that if the Fed could just kind of wave their wand in lower interest rates, that that's going
to help a certain sort of consumer here. But the truth is it might cause oil to go back higher, right, it might cause you know, some of these rents to go back. I mean, there's a whole host of things here. So that whole conundrum about being able to buy a house because mortgage rates are so high, or a car, you run the risk of okay, rent being higher than you know, the cost of rent is greater right now, for the.
First time in a very long time, than the cost of buying.
A house, right So there's a whole host of things that kind of play into this, and none of them are playing particularly well for the Biden administration right now. So that's one of the reasons why you don't hear them talk a whole heck of a lot about their kind of you know, inclination for lower interest rates. We know that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren came out, i want to say, a couple months ago with an open letter to fed share Pal suggesting that they better lower
rates soon. I don't think those two know what they're talking about at the moment right now, because the worst thing that could happen for the Biden administration into the November election is that you know, you see inflation picked back up, and that really going to hurt a voting block in Middle America or in certain social economic you know what I mean sort of demos that they really need to win the reelection here and again, So there's no easy answer right now.
The thing about the interest rates problem is, and I think this is really what Chairman Powell is worried about, is that if you cut interest rates too soon, you really could end up just kicking inflation back. I mean, even though people hate inflation and they're not happy with it relatively speaking, and again, this doesn't make people who can't buy a house feel better. It's been bad, but it hasn't crashed us into a recession, which a lot of people were worried it would.
No doubt about it.
But in certain swaths of the American public, they feel like they're deeply in a recession. And all you have to do is go back and look at some of the comments that you heard from McDonald's, from Starbucks, from Disney. I mean, the list goes on and on these consumer oriented companies, and you could say, well, Disney is consumer discretionary. If you're spending seven dollars for a latte on a daily basis, you could trade down to the food truck on the.
Corner at a dollar.
But when McDonald's talks about their consumers trading down from five or six dollars, value meals where are they trading down to, right, And so that is the consumer that you're really worried about. So you know, lowering interest rates right now probably doesn't do a whole heck of a lot because you have to look at the rate that basically Fed funds or the ten year rate where lots
of other instruments are priced off of, relative to inflation. Right, So if the Fed funds rate it's at five and a half percent and inflation still running at three point four percent, the rate of two point one or whatever is not that restrictive right now, So you think they should I think they have to stay pat They are worried about inflation becoming entrenched in the economy, and every day is whether it's wages, whether it's you know, a whole host of other input costs, you know, whether it
be shipping, whether it be energy, oil in the like here. If it becomes entrenched in the economy the way it did in the seventies, and you have lower than trend growth, then you have something called stagflation, which you.
And I have not heard a whole heckle a lot about stagflation.
Is the nightmare. Talk to us about stagflation.
Right, And really, what that would mean is that these higher prices become entrench in the economy. Companies have to try to pass through those higher costs to consumers. Consumers pull back in their spending, causing less than expected growth. But then ultimately the consumer hits a wall. Corporations hit a wall. They can't pass through prices anymore to their customers.
They start laying people off. And just remember we have unemployment rate below four percent, that's still at a fifty or fifty five year low, right, So then all of a sudden you have unemployment start to tick up, right, and so all of this is really a very negative sort of cycle that can happen in the economy.
Those are the sort of worst scenarios, and.
That's what killed Carter.
Correct.
Stagflation is what killed Jimmy Carter, among other things, and it is the nightmare scenario that was very hard to get out of. And it seems very likely that we will not hit into stagflation at this point.
Well, I mean, who knows, you know, at this point. And again, a lot of this might be messaging. If you look at the way that Biden is polling on the economy relative to a potential Trump administration, you know, he's not doing particularly well despite the fact that they've had a number of really you know, great legislative wins as it relates to the economy.
Think about the Chip sack and the like.
Yeah, but I want you to pause back and talk about stagflation for a minute. You know, Yes, the Biden administration is not breaking through on messaging when it comes to the economy. But I feel like I'm more curious about what you think the Fed should do to kind of pull us out of this, or do you think it's better just a way.
No, I think the Fed they're doing their job.
They did the right thing by raising interest rates right relative to the pace of inflation. And I think the fact that they are not willing to kind of drop the mic and put up a mission impossible sort of sign makes a lot of sense right here, because if the first three months of this year were any indication you know, about the potential for a reflation right and the disinflation of inflation, I know there was a.
Lot there, Like that is what their big worry is.
And so to me, keeping the rate high right has the potential of slowing down the economy, which is essentially what they want to do, right. They want to slower the pace of jobs growth, They're starting to do that. They want to slower the pace of consumption, they're starting to do that, right, And so the idea of taking their foot off the pedal right now, then you run the risk of basically lowering interest rates causing inflation to get going again, making you know, just kind of financial
conditions that much easier. And then you run the risk
of basically inflating a bubble in risk assets too. And don't think for a second that the stock market, the housing market don't play into this because the wealth effect that created by the stock market at all time highs and housing market, you know, at unusually high levels, you know, creates this situation where you know, no one can see an end in sight to risk asset inflation, and then you run the risk of it popping like we had in twenty twenty two and a bear market.
So it really is a very delicate dance to try to lower inflation for the consumer because you know, for the people in the middle of the country, for whom McDonald's is now, you know, twenty percent of the budget as opposed to fifteen or whatever that looks like, and not get into one of these really dangerous cycles. But part of the fundamental problem with this economy is still that it's too good.
Yeah well, I mean, listen, you're going to hear this term all this time hot on Financial TV. That is a sort of Goldilock situation in a way. I mean, corporate profits are doing very well. The ability to pass through these price increases has been good for their margins and good for profitability. But you know, just this morning, this is Thursday morning, as we're recording it, Walmart's earnings are out. The stock is at a new all time high nearly six percent. The headline is Walmart sales surge
as wealthy shoppers flock to retailers. So think about that. There's a trade down in the wealth level of their shoppers. So people are starting to feel it. They're looking for value, and those sorts of things have the ability to kind of creep up and then have an effect, you know what I mean on the economy all at once. You have two thirds of our economy the GDP comes from
the consumer. So the warning signs are there that the consumer is slowing at a time where unemployment is still really low, and that sort of ingredient with high inflation and high interest rates have the potential to cause an economic downturn.
You mentioned it.
A lot of folks coming into twenty twenty three were convinced that we were going to have a recession. We never did. The FED was getting ready to ease policy, but then inflation picked back up. And you know, we haven't even mentioned geopolitics. And one of the biggest kickers back in early twenty twenty two was when Russia invaded.
Ukraine, right because of fuel.
Right, and so fuel costs went up dramatically, and so it also disrupted supply chains. So when you think about this, one of the reasons why a lot of folks that look at markets and look at the economy are really concerned about the situation with China and Taiwan is that another disruption to supply chains like we saw in COVID.
The national security risks of all of this centralized manufacturing and supply chains dependent on China has the potential to cause massive inflationary pressures, especially as we reshore jobs, whether it be in semiconductors or other parts of manufacturing. And the last point I'll just say, and this is bipartisan because the Trump administration started this back in early in their administration, the tariffs and the trade war. You know,
the Biden administration has leaned into this. We're seeing lots of teriffs being placed on that's also inflationary, So let's talk.
About the tariffs. This is one of the few times ever that the Trump administration may have done something right, which is baffling to me because of the more they had running that hip and the advice they were taking from people like Larry Goudlow, who is a lovely person but is wrong about almost everything. So explain to us why Trump World was right about tariffs when it comes to China, and also just explain to me why inflationary tariffs are somehow good now.
They're really not. I mean.
So the point is, I think a lot of it has to do with diversification away from those supply chains in China, and also the idea and we've been dealing with this in the US as it relates to manufacturing for fifty years. You know, Japan was the bugaboo back in the eighties that they were going to dump cars on us and destroy Detroit, and to some degree they really did. Right now, as you think about the bideninistration and what they're doing, I mean, they want to be
very pro Detroit auto manufacturing. And we saw that earlier in the year with the UAW strikes when Biden went and got on the picket line. Right now, that serves him politically very well, right to have a very strong message message in Michigan. It's one of the only battle ground states that he's doing pretty decently. And so the idea that the Chinese, which have gotten really good at developing low cost electric vehicles, that they could be selling
them here in the US. It would absolutely sink Tesla, which is the leader right now in high end electric vehicles. Elon Musk has wind about it on many occasions that the Chinese have the potential just to destroy USV manufacturing.
So he's right about that.
But really, if you think about the number of cars that are coming out of Detroit that are fully electric, I think it was basically one percent of the fifteen million cars that were made and shipped in America last year, one hundred and fifty thousand I think between Ford and GM.
So this is a very nascent industry here in the US.
I think a lot of folks who are really focused on this from a environmental standpoint would like to see, let's say, the Chinese innovation help basically spur competition here in the US, which will give many, many more consumers access to these vehicles. And if these ariffs at one hundred percent coming in from China are basically going to block US consumers from buying cheap Chinese EV's, but I just don't think there's demand for cheap Chinese.
Evs anyway here.
But again that's the risk, and they're also putting them on steel and a whole host of other things. And again going back to the Trump administration, you know that wasn't that popular if you think about it back at the time on certain forms of manufacturing companies because they rely on that cheap steel and they lost a lot of jobs in the heartland because of those high terraffs.
Right. So, do you think ultimately the Trump world was wrong and Biden world is wrong?
No, I think they were probably right.
If you think about this sort of deal that the US manufacturing had made that benefited US consumers some fifty years ago. You know, we got addicted to cheap manufactured goods in China, but at the hollowing out of our manufacturing capabilities has done a number on our economy if you think about it, right, And so I think they were probably right in some manners. I think the Biden administration basically left all those tariffs in place, and now
we're getting a bit more aggressive. You know, again, a lot of it is messaging, right, and how you want to play in this global you know playing field. I mean, the Trump administration they basically went after very hard, you know, China and some other parts of the world, and that was you know, basically one of their big economic messages,
and for many reasons it's right. But the other thing I'll just say is that, you know, if you think about twenty and sixteen to twenty and twenty four, what is starting to become very apparent is China is much weaker than we would have given them any credit for.
You know, than a few years ago.
They have a massive demographic problem, they have huge economic problems that have not really made it to our shores just yet, and so maybe they're not the sort of
you know adversary economically that we think they are. And therefore, you know, the idea of kind of pressing their neck right now may cause them to do something that we don't want them to do on the geopolitical front, and that is some sort of you know, embargo on Taiwan or as trying to take Taiwan, because that would be something that I think would be disasterus if you thought the Ukraine invasion was bad for all the things we just talked about, you know, cutting off access to chips
and by the way, Taiwan makes probably eighty five percent of high end chips right now, they're distributed all over the world.
That would be a very bad thing for the global economy.
Yeah, these are all really really salient and important points. And China is both not as strong as we worry they are, but also way more dangerous than Russia ultimately because they have money and they have real stuff. I want you just for a second to talk about there are people on the left. They're like the politicians that my husband hates, but I like them ideologically, But he hates them because he's a venture capitalist and he's the best, but I think he's wrong on this. But they want
to push to lower gross prices. I'm talking about Elizabeth Warren, I'm talking about Bernie Sanders. This is like capitalist creates a lot of capitalist anxiety. I mean, is there a place for.
That or now? Not really?
I mean, you know, when you think about it, past administrations they've looked for different ways to kind of you know, like through the social safety net to kind of, you know, help reduce the cost of some of these things. But at the end of the day, you know, we really don't have mechanisms in our capitalistic kind of.
Way of life to do that, right.
And so again this comes down to the sort of choices that you make and the parties that you align with, and you know, the Democratic Party, whether it be the far left coming up with these sorts of plans, it's kind of helping move the center to the left, I think a little bit if that makes some sense on some of these issues that I know you and I and your husband care deeply about. But the way in
which people want to institute these policies are very different. Right, So when I think about this, one of the major differences that I always consider when I think about some of let's say, the economic policies on the right that make some sense to me more so than say coming out of Bernie and Elizabeth Warren. I mean, what I care about is that our tax dollars go to the most vulnerable in some ways, to some of the most
vulnerable citizens in our country. And I think on the right they think of them as handouts, right, And so to me, that's where just I just like draw the line to some degree. So again, I don't agree with Bernie and Elizabeth Warren, but I do believe that the Democratic Party, and I think the things that they stand for as it relates to the social safety that are worth fighting for.
And that's where I stand.
Thank you, Dan, You're the best, all.
Right, Olli, John Fast, It's always a plusure.
Jacob Rubashkan is an analyst and reporter for Inside Elections. Welcome back to Fast Politics, Jacob Rubashkan.
Thank you so much for having me.
So let's talk about what the landscape looks like in twenty twenty four.
Yeah, leak for Democrats on the Senate side at least.
First, let's talk about the Senate map. Primaries went basically as good as they could for Democrats, right, Yeah.
I think in the places where Democrats needed wins, they got them. They got the candidates they preferred and some of the tougher races, and obviously Democrats one thing that they have going for them is that they don't have very many primaries themselves, right. I Mean, it's almost entirely incumbents or people without primaries. Maryland was really kind of the big competitive race that also had a competitive primary, was a standout in that regard.
So let's talk about that. I feel like black women candidates have kind of gotten screwed, especially when it comes to Senate. We've only had three black women senators, which is insanity. But it looks like that's possibly about to.
Change, right, Yeah, No, I think that it will most likely change. There are two black women who are poised to win their Senate races this cycle. I mean, Lisa Blunt Rochester in Delaware is basically a shoe in. She doesn't face any real opposition in her primary or in the general election, so she's going to be there next year. And Angela also Brooks in Maryland. I think we still consider her the favorite to win the Maryland Senate race,
even against Larry Hogan. It'll be a tough contest, but we see her favorite, and she would be of course, the other black women in the Senate, they would go from zero to two, and two is more than they've ever had at the same time in the Senate in history.
We have a black woman senator from California right now, but she's about to be replaced by a white man. Yes, let's just game this out. There's a slate of really bad polls that show a lot of stuff. But if we were just to go on twenty twenty two, or even twenty twenty three, or even twenty twenty all of the elections where Democrats have overperformed, and you were to be a little optimistic, what Senate seats. Do you think Democrats can either keep or pick up.
Look, I think that in the best case scenario for Democrats, they hold everything except West Virginia. I mean, West Virginia is off the board. I don't even talk about it anymore because it's so out of mind. Without Joe Manchin, that seat is gone and that up ends the whole math. But we'll leave that aside for a second. I think there are paths to victory for both John Tester and Montana and Sheared Brown in Ohio. Those are the two
most vulnerable seats, but it's not West Virginia territory. They're not being triaged, they're not dead men walking.
And they are also amazing candidates that are pretty different. You know, those candidates are amazing candidates.
And this is something that Democrats have going for them, is though they brought back almost all of their incumbents, and that really makes a difference. A lot of the time when we see big swings in Senate composition, it is because incumbents decide not to run for reelection. I mean, think about twenty fourteen, which I think is still kind of If you're trying to understand why Democrats have been such a deep hole in the Senate for so long. Twenty fourteen is the year that you have to look to.
Republicans flipped nine seats that year. It was a blood bat and it was in part because they had they want a bunch of really narrow victories in states against incumbents like North Carolina and Alaska, but also because Parkin retired in Iowa, and you had other Democratic senators in Republican states who didn't even bother trying to win reelection. They just hung up the cleats and went home. And I think what is keeping Democratic hopes alive is that
neither John Tester nor Shared Brown made that calculation. This time, they're giving the party a fighting chance in both of those states.
Let's talk about here's one that because I'm still very salty from twenty twenty two and the fucking Wisconsin Senate where Ron Annon was polling nine points ahead and won against Mandela Barns by one point. If you were looking at this map, what would be that seed?
So this one we actually see in a better position for Democrats than most of their other vulnerable seats.
What are we we're talking about Tavy Baldwin in Wisconsin. Yeah, yeah, she's gonna win. That guy's an asshole, sorry, Eric Coovey, and who comes from California owns a bank.
The matchup there, I think generally plays well to Senator Baldwin's strength. Huv D Eric hove.
D with a ridiculous little mustache.
He ran for senate in twenty twelve Sands mustache didn't even win the primary, so the mustache at least has helped him clear the primary field this time, right or Ormon. What he has going for him is he is really really rich, and he unlike some really rich guys who run for office and don't spend any money or spend a little bit of money, he really is is opening up his checkbook and has already been able to go up on TV and prosecute a message against Senator Baldwin.
But you know, he's got the baggage too, He's got the California stuff. He has a pension for speaking his mind in somewhat blunt ways that doesn't sit well with voters. I mean, he made those comments about how people in nursing homes might not you know, have the faculties to be able to vote.
Insulting old people is always a good way when you're running for office, always a good moment.
And you know, in Wisconsin, he made a comment if I had to start all over, I would say we shouldn't have legal alcohol sales. He presents some opportunities to Democrats to paint him as kind of an out of touch rich guy who's not in it or the people of Wisconsin. And that's why, you know, I think that we see Senator Baldwin in a stronger position than either Shared Brown or John Tester, but also Jackie Rosen in Nevada and Bob Casey and Pennsylvania and some of these
other candidates as well. You know, Wisconsin I think is in a better spot for Democrats than a lot of these other highly competitive Senate races.
Talk to me about the Senate race that's not on the map but maybe should be.
I mean, I think both parties have arguments to make for one or two states that we don't currently see as super competitive. On the Democratic side, I think Florida is the obvious candidate here at the moment, we have Florida rated solid Republican because it's just not clear that the likely nominee there. Former Congresswoman w macarstole Powell is going to be able to stand up the kind of operation needed to run in the third largest state in
the Union. I mean, Florida is incredibly expensive and she is not such an incredible fundraiser compared to some of these other Democrats.
And he's got a gazillion dollars.
And he's got a gazillion dollars and he will spend it. I mean, he spent sixty million on his run in twenty eighteen. Money is no problem for him. And because the Biden campaign probably isn't going to invest heavily in Florida, she's going to have to do it on her own. And we just at the moment, it doesn't seem like that is going to happen. It's not going to all
come together for her. And you know, the Florida Democratic Party has really been struggled in recent years to build up any kind of infrastructure at a state level, and so it's difficult. But if things really get better for Biden, if all of a sudden he's competitive in Florida and she's able to really kick her fundraising into high gear, then yeah, Rick Scott has never won a race by more than one percentage point in the decade he's been in politics. On paper, this is a seat that could
come online for Democrats on the Republican side. The one or two that I think they would probably want to make a run at, or New Mexico or Virginia. I'd probably place New Mexico above that, just because you know, this is a state that used to be.
Because of the Hispanic poll and vote at the polls.
So New Mexico has the highest Hispanic population I believe of any state in the country. Republicans have a recruit in that state that they like, Nela Dimnici. She's the daughter of former Senator Pete Domenici, so she's got some built in name id. She is wealthy, and so she has some self funding capacity. And Martin Heinrich, the incumbent Democrat, is not a particularly flashy member. He's not on TV all the time. He's not kind of a high profile
member of the caucus, which can cut both ways. But I think it might give Republicans an opportunity to define him a little bit in voters' minds. But New Mexico is not going to be a competitive presidential state unless the bottom falls out for Biden, right, So like you kind of have these extremes on either side. Depending on where the presidential race goes, we could see one or the other be competitive.
Yeah, seems unlikely. So talk to me about the House.
So the House is definitely a more positive territory for Democrats than the Senate is. I mean, the Senate is truly almost entirely defense. That's not a comfortable position to be the House. Of course, they're in the minority right now, so by definition they have more room to grow, and
they have room to grow in Democratic leaning territory. There are a handful of seats in California and New York that Biden would have carried by double digits last cycle that Democrats absolutely have to win back if they want to flip control of the House. I mean, that is the main path to the majority, and then kind of everything else. The other seats out there, and there are probably another fifteen seats that are conceivably targetable on Democratic
side and on Republican side. That'll determine how big the majority is for either party. But it's going to come down to those seats in the middle. If Democrats want to retake control redistricting, there were a couple of states that redrew their maps. Ultimately, it looks like pretty much a wash. Republicans are going to pick up a couple seats out of North Carolina, but Democrats are going to pick up a seat in Alabama and a seat in Louisiana.
So you know, call it R plus one. But you know that's the kind of number that comes out in the wash. It's not really a major upending of the congressional map from last year to this year at least.
So what seats are you in the House? What do you think has promised for Democrats? Where do you think they can flow?
So, look, there are two seats on Long Island that Democrats are interested in, the first district in the fourth district. I think the fourth district is that one of the number one pick up opportunities. Maybe number one would have voted for Biden.
Who is that?
That's Congressman Anthony des Posito.
Oh yeah, yeah, that's the one that John Avlon is running for.
Right, No, So he's running in the first district, which is Nick Loloda.
Who's ds Posito running in.
So d s Posito is running against Laura Gillen, who is the former Hempstead Town Supervisor. She ran against him last cycle two and lost by like two points or something like that, and she's back for the rematch. And so that you know, that district voted for Biden by a greater margin than any other seat currently held by a Republican. So that's certainly top of the list. And then you kind of go up through the Hudson Valley New York seventeen with Mike Lawler running against Mandair Jones.
That's going to be a big race. And then the twenty second district, I think is actually probably a Democrat's best shot anywhere of flipping a seat.
What is that?
So that's Brandon Williams is the Republican. He's a freshman. It's kind of a Syracuse based on Indaga County district. There's a Democratic primary there currently going on for the next couple of weeks. They've got to sort that out. But then Williams is very vulnerable. He is more conservative than the district typically goes for, so we actually see him as like the most vulnerable Republican in the country right now.
Oh wow, And then what about on this now it's in California.
Yeah, so there are a couple of seats in kind of the La Orange County area that are going to be very crucial. So Mike Garcia in California's twenty seventh district. This is kind of Antelope Valley. It's on the other side of LA from the Palm Springs District. There is a Palm Springs district as well that's going to be competitive. Will Rollins is the Democrat there.
Yeah, we've had him on a number of times.
Yeah, running against Ken Calvert, So that's going to be a tough race. Rollins isn't very strong fundraiser. I think he's probably one of the best fundraisers that Democrats have on the challenger side this cycle. But you know those two races, there's the Michelle Steele seat, which is California's forty fifth district, is going to be competitive, and then
there are two seats in the Central Valley. Adam Gray is running against Congressman John Duarti in the thirteenth district, and that was a race that both of those guys ran last time. Duarte beat him, but I want to say, like five hundred votes. It was very narrow.
It was like this.
It was the second narrowest after Adam Frisch. It was the second narrowest race in the country. And then David Valdeo is also in that area, another seat that would have voted for Biden by a lot and is represented by a Republican, and he's also in a rematch against Rudy Sallis, who's a former state assembly man who's back for another shot at the seat. So a number of rematches in California and other highly competitive races that will also determine and whether Democrats can win back these seats.
I mean, if they're not able to win back seats that Biden was carrying by ten plus points.
Right right, right, that's real weird. So let me ask you, is Lauren Bobert safe?
Now?
Talk to us about the sort of crazies like the Matt Gates, the Anna Paulina Luna bad Crow, the Arson s.
Lauren Bobert is an interesting one because she made that district jump. Right, if she had remained in her current district, she'd be very vulnerable. I think she knew that. That's why she drove across the state. Right we were talking hundreds of miles from the third district to the fourth district to try and run in a very crowded Republican primary in a safe seat. Now she's got to win her primary, which is going to be tough. When is
the primary it's coming up? I want to say June twenty fifth is the Colorado primary, and you know, if she can win her primary, then she'll be set, you know, for however long she wants, until you know, if they redraw the district in a decade or whatever. But that's a very solid Republican district. Matt Gates similar story. I mean, that's the Florida Panhandle is among the most Republican places in the country at this point. Marjorie Taylor Green Northeast
Northwest Georgia is you know, that's Republican country. And a Paulina Luna is an interesting one because that district on paper is a little swing yer kind of that Saint Petersburg Tampa Bay area. Charlie crist held that seat for a while. There is a crowded Democratic primary there, which I'm kind of surprised by because it's not a top tier opportunity, but you've got four or five Democrats running
credible campaigns trying to get the nomination there. I think that if we see some sort of snap back for Democrats in Florida. That's the one seat that could be competitive in the entire state. You know, pretty incredible. Almost thirty congressional districts in this state, and at most one or two of them would conceivably flip. They did a very good job of gerrymandering that state when they redraw
the maps last cycle. But she's a kind of that caucus that Austin Kevin McCarthy and has been causing so much trouble for Republican leadership. She's the one who comes from the swingiest district by far.
Yeah, that's so interesting. Thank you so much. Jacob Robashkan, Yeah, powis a pleasure. No sick, Jesse Cannon.
My junk fast. You know, we all know that Trump gets compared to a mob boss a lot, but trickling down what all the people below him should say really puts a fine note on it.
New York Magazine journalist Andrew Rice said he saw as he was sitting in the courtroom, Donald Trump editing what he was going to have his surrogate say, getting around the gag order, having them malign the judge and his daughter during his criminal trial while his former lawyer and fixer, Michael Cohen testifies about his hush money payments to an adult film star. That, my friends, is our moment of U.
Right.
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