Hello, everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy pros Football Podcast. My name is Ryan Warmley. I'm joined today by Andrew ericsona by Chris welsh Fellas. We are extending our Predictions show into the NFL playoffs. It is Wildcard weekend? Is it still super Wildcard Weekend? I feel like I haven't seen them say super and I know it used to be. I actually don't remember. We're calling it Wildcard Weekend. We've
got a really fun slatest six games here. Ericson, how do you feel now that the season regular season is officially behind us?
I feel like my brain is functioning at a normal capacity now, which I very much enjoy where I can kind of just stop working at night and let my brain kind of reset as opposed to doing the twelve thousand other things I have to do in season. So
I feel like I'm thinking more clearly. So hopefully, hopefully with less games to kind of parse through, I will have better predictions because, as we'll get into, not been my show so far this year, it's been tough with the prediction streets, So we're going to get better with only six games to break down.
I feel like you actually were really accurate when we did this show last year. So I'm not sure what's happened this year where you've really fallen off a cliff.
I ruined you, I ruined Erickson.
Welsh's gotten, He's not gotten his stake on you. He stole it. He's taken you know, the like the monstar is stealing your talent because Welsh has been kind of on fire. Welsh, how you feeling, buddy? Now that we're past Week eighteen and into the playoffs.
Oh, I don't have to watch the Niners anymore. I don't have to like pretend, I don't have to do any of that. I don't have to experience a week eighteen again, boof Week eighteen really ridiculous to try to consume just you have to re ask yourself sometimes, why do you bet on Week eighteen? Why do you consume all of it? Thank God, we're going to go into the playoffs and hopefully this super duper exciting wild card weekend is going to have some big playoffs, the ors,
some good games. Though, you know, part of the narrative we talked about earlier in the week too was a little bit of chalk. There's kind of some like you look, and it's like it's hard to envision a handful of games that are going to have these big setups or upsets, but you know, we'll see how it goes.
Yeah, I'm really excited to break down the slate. Honestly this weekend and next weekend. I'm not the first person to say this, but just like our two of the best weekends of of football in sports of the entire calendar, where you get, you know, Saturday Sunday pretty much all day watching playoff games. Erickson, you did better in week eighteen than you had the last couple of weeks. Now, that was an extraordinarily low bar to clear. You were
wrong about the Steelers in Jalen Warren. You were wrong about Tony Pollard. He did get twenty two rushes, but he didn't get his needed eighty three yards. He did not get any of the two touchdowns. Not only did Carson Wentz not throw a touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins, he didn't throw a touchdown passes to anybody. It was
a thirty eight to nothing lost to Denver. However, you were right about the Jags mostly, you know, spiritually correct, and also of course you were correct about Brian Thomas Junior in that game, officially getting the leading all rookies and receiving this season, So that was a big hit by you, and of course the big one you were
spot on about Geno Smith and the Seahaw. Those incentives played off really well for you Welsh You had Michael Pennix did get his two touchdown day, but all was passing did go to Drake London instead of Kyle Pitts. So thankfully almost Pitt's finished the season with another whimper, we don't have to be tricked into going for him next year. JK. Dobbins did not get one hundred yards, but he did get sixty three against the Raiders for
the incentives there. Brock Bauers got nine targets but only came down with four passes, not the big day we expected from Jameson Williams. And finally, Mike Evans did not get his hundred yards, but of course he did get his thousand yard season, which was really one of the highlights of the day seeing the whole sideline celebrate and like I'm not even I'm not here for the people who are like the defense was soft, they were kind of letting him have it like it was cool to
see the dudes of Hall of Famer. He missed a bunch of games this year. The game was already over. It's not like they took a loss to give it to him, and like they didn't like guide him down the field. It was maybe a little softer covered us.
He said after the game that they tried to double covered Mikevinton.
Yeah, like I don't.
I don't think it was a.
Where the ball was going.
Yeah, you shouldn't have been able to tell. Can I see you guys real quick? I got massive pushback on this on Ad of Bounds this week from Bogman and Piece of PA. But I think, like, if you guys, if you watch the game, Mike Evans was just let's just say a better word. He's pouting and I get it, like it's three million dollars. It was the drive before. I think they just scored the top. He was sitting on the bench just like staring off into the abyss.
No excitement, no nothing, know anything. Then they get the ball back, he goes back in. He's cold. Kids, the catch, he's super excited. He just leaves and I was like, Okay, what's going on?
Here.
But my take was they were gonna pay like they were gonna pay him like. I don't know if they would have paid him the full three million dollars. I can't imagine if he came up five yards short that that organization was not going to take care of him in some capacity because and this is to do with his level of kind of poutiness, they completely he disagreed.
I think you might hurt the relationship a little bit with this guy who would be like the face of the organization moving forward Hall of Famer if five yards short they didn't pay him out in some capacity. Do you guys think I'm way off on that? Was?
He pouted me because he wasn't gonna so he was five yards short.
He was sitting. It's not about the pouting. He was absolutely like desponded, sitting on the bench going five yards short. My thing was, you should be excited, you should keep going. You guys would making the playoffs. You did great, And do we really think that they would have just been like, oh, better luck next time, buddy, like you fell five yards short.
Totally depends on the owner. I don't know enough about Tampa's ownership team and family to know if they're the type that would tried nickel and time him. But like you would think any reasonably competent owner would recognize, like this dude is a Hall of Famer, maybe a first ballot Hall of Famer. He spent his entire career here and fell short, you know, from this legendary street, Like, yeah, I would I would like to think they would have paid him.
Wait, but Evan's already hit his receptions inte.
He needed all three of them to lock in the five million. He needed all There wasn't one individual, it was all a collective. He needed the catches, the touchdowns,
and the yards to collect the three million dollars. So he was sitting on the bench five yards short of three million dollars because he didn't have those yards, and they had just scored that touchdown, and he was just kind of sitting there away from his teammates, staring off into the abyss and I get it, it's three million dollars and stuff like that, but it was so disconnected from the team. And then just for me, he gets it.
He celebrated and he just leaps and he just walks off the field, and it was I was like what's going on here? And then you know, top it off at the end, he's like, I'm gonna go to the casino and I was like, all right, I'm like disliking Mike Evans. I was like, rooting for him was the coolest moment ever. But I'm like, I don't like any of this, but I just couldn't get over the poudiness and like, dude, they're gonna like they gotta take care
of you, I guess. And to your point, there are nickel and dime ownerships that would have just laughed in their face and not paid it off. And you know, there are teams that bench players and stuff like. I just don't think you would have done that for the face of the Buccaneers. He's the number one face of that organization and it'll be for a long time moving forward. If it meant that much, then I can't imagine they
would have not paid him out. So I just it was more about, like, why are you pouting so much? I understand the money, but you should get taken care of.
Yeah. I tend to agree with that. Let's jump into the wildcard slate and see if we can get our own streaks going here again. We're gonna start with that. We're just gonna go kind of chronologically here, so we're gonna start with Chargers Texans. This is the four or five game in the AFC Texans in their annual time slot of three point thirty local Saturday. Every single playoff game they've been in the last yeah, I think it's twelve years or whatever it is, has been in the
same time slot. So this is definitely the Texans Invitational. Ericson what is your big prediction for Chargers Texans.
The Chargers are gonna win because the Texans are fraudulent and this is where they always lose Saturday Wildcard weekend in the late afternoon slate. I just have memories of being kind of like it's dark outside, the texts are on in the background. I look up, They're getting killed, and that's basically what's going to happen here in this matchup. I just think that all year along, the Texans have been one of the most overrated teams, and we've seen
it from the lack of offensive efficiency. They're one of the worst teams in the NFL overall in overall success rate, like next to the Cleveland Browns, who have played four different quarterbacks all year long, so I think this is more of the same. And again, if this was the Chargers of old, the nong Harbaugh Chargers, this would be a really easy game to be Oh, well, this is where the Texans they get a win, right, But it's not.
It's the Harbor Chargers. We've seen this team over this past season really take what Harball brought to the table and run with it and be pretty successful in his first year, make the postseason and his first year as the head coach. So I think the quarterback advantage is with the Chargers. I think that the coaching advantage is
with the Chargers. So yeah, they're playing on the road, but the Chargers play on the road every single week because they played Sofi Stadium, which is essentially a road game. So I like them to win this game. And I think that Joe Mixon is going to kind of continue his late season struggles. We're starting some of these venter running back kind of run out of gas at the end of the season. He's rushed for under seventy rushing
yards in five of his last seven games. He's actually played a full lot in a snap, so it's not even counting last week where he barely played, so his prop is around seventy two and a half rushing yards. This week, I think he's gonna finish under seventy two and a half rushing yards. And there's a chance that after Damian Pierce popped off last week, maybe they hey, like, let's go with this two man backfield that they kept
talking up the entire offseason. But like, yeah, we're gonna have a two headed monster, but Damian Piers and Joe Mixon, which they never did, so who knows. With Joe Mixic kind of slowing down, maybe Pierce gets a little bit more involved. So just kind of fading the Texans as we've done most of the season and going with the Chargers here.
I like what you said too. By the way of it's like in baseball where they're like, well, the new year hasn't started until pitchers and catchers report. It's like the playoffs haven't really started until the Texans are getting blown out on a Saturday afternoon game. At least on the West Coast.
This is the second smallest spread of the of the slate. It's a minus two and a half for the Chargers as road favorites and well, she looks like with your prediction, you've got the Chargers winning too.
Yeah. I like the charge this, I mean a lot of. I mean, Erickson broke that down great, as he always does, but like I would just simplify it to just be like CJ. Stroud has been fraudulent this year. It's not if this is the CJ Stroud that we saw last year, the CJ Stroud that we saw in the off season that would sit with Micah Parsons and break down every player. Looks like I want to listen to c J. Stroud talk and break down football all the time. I don't
want to watch him play football right now. That's the problem. He does not look like that CJ Stroud that we had all build up for. So it puts it in a really tough situation where it's like, you know, I don't care if at home road, it doesn't really matter to me. Like he has not been shocked, Like you're betting his overs on interceptions every single game and you're cashing it. The weapons haven't been there, I mean obviously,
like they're a little bit more healthy. You've got mixing going, You've got Nico getting to go a little bit but I think the Chargers are just too tough of a team right now, and as they are getting healthy, getting JK. Dobbins back the other big thing. And this is so obviously like my game prediction is Colts are going to win. They're going to cover that two and a half on the spread, So we can put that as my prediction is they'll cover the spread, but my in game prediction
is going to be around Lad McConkey. So if you're taking a mix and under, I love my overs, and I'm gonna go with Lad McConkey over his receiving yard prop which was early set at seventy two and a half. He's currently set up against the Texans with the second best wide receiver quarterback matchup of the weekend according to PFF.
So you love that he's hit this yards prop at seventy two and a half and six of his last seven games and he has had six or more receptions in five of his last seven games, while, by the way, from a target perspective, eighteen targets over his last two games. So I mean he has gone on into overdrive as far as being the guy for this team. And this is how they're gonna win. They're going to be getting the ball to Lad all day. So I love Lad
having a great, big day. As far as my predictions go, hitting that receiving yard prop and the Chargers covering.
I know, typically the format of the show is that I host and you guys give the predictions. I want to throw a prediction out here and see what you guys think of it. It's maybe a little not maybe it is bolder. I'm going to predict that despite this being the second smallest spread of the week, this will be the biggest blowout of Wildcard Weekend. Will be the Chargers beating the Texans. I think this is the biggest disparity.
I don't kind of trust some of the other very large lines that we're gonna get to some of these other games, particularly in the AFC. I think the biggest blowout of the weekend is Chargers over Texans.
I think this is one of two games in play for that I like, like a variant of this would be the biggest discrepancy between what the spread is and what the total line finishes at. I think that definitely could have the biggest widest variance. But yeah, I think this is like one of two games where that's in play. I mean, like when the Texans are on, like we know what they can be. Nico can absolutely go off
when him and Stroud have that connection. But Stroud has just consistently been on off on all and it's just like there isn't like three quarters that are even stitched together that look phenomenal like that Stroud of old. So yeah, I think this could go in a really bad direction.
Know what I want to mention when it comes to this Chargers Texans dynamic. And this is something that kind of went under the radar during the offseason. We all know that the Texans retained Bobby Slowick as the offensive coordinator, but one of the key guys that they lost who was a senior offensive assistant quarterbacks coach for the Chargers now Shane Day. So he actually played a lot. He
got a lot of credit last year about CJ. Stroud's rookie year emergence, and he'd worked previously with the Chargers with Justin Herbert and when the Chargers brought him back from Houston, Justin Herbert was really pumped up. So just another element of something to pay attention during the offseason where it's not always the offensive coordinators moving from team to team, but like these quarterback coaches and who was
like working day to day with these quarterbacks. So I was going back in some of my old articles from the Quarterbacks to Avoid, and I talked about Stroud and that was one of the things I mentioned where Hey, he lost Shane Day, and Shane Day had a lot of success with him his rookie year. He had a
lot of success with Herbert. And that's kind of why we see these two teams, these two quarterbacks kind of go in different directions, whereas justin Herbert bounced back after a tough year last season, and obviously we've seen CJ. Stroud regress. So I think we're gonna come and just see more of the same here in this matchup.
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that provide the most value. Our betting systems allow you to create and even back test custom strategies that help you find value and maximize your bank role. So take the guestwork out of betting. Download the Betting Pros app, use code FP free, and start winning today. All right, guys, let's get to Steelers Ravens. This line is like one I just frankly do not understand. It's nine and a half. The Ravens are laying nine and a half, and this is the I believe it's the largest spread in the
history of this rivalry. I can not ever remember seeing like a double digit spread or even close to it in this arrival. Even when when this spread is like seven, I think that's too high for any Steelers Ravens game. And here it is in the playoffs, it's nine and a half. Ericson, what is your prediction.
Well, this isn't a prediction, because this is gonna happen. Steelers are gonna covers. That's luck of the week. Steelers are gonna cover this nine and a half spread. Because I agree with you, I think that it's absolutely.
It's hard for me to not recommend people bet like they're a whole mortgage on this. Like I do not understand this line.
I mean, look, when we all look up at the score at the end of the game, we'll find out that's probably gonna be a lot. It's gonna be pretty spot on, is what we'll find out. But one team eventually has to cover because especially if it closes at nine and a half, there's no push when it comes to nine and a half points. But I like the Steeler sidea but ultimately I do think that the Ravens pull out the victory, even if it's not by nine and a half points. And I do think the Steelers
throw a little bit more at Lamar Jackson. I think he's gonna finish under two hundred and twenty passing yards. Looking at this matchup, have seen it twice this season, which goes back to why I just think this line is absolutely bonkers because it was Ravens minus seven like three weeks ago, and now it's nine and a half. Despite the fact that Steelers have playing with six or
seven guys that didn't even play in that game. Thickens is back Joey Porter Junior is back, a lot of defensive backs and defensive tackles are playing for the Steelers, and you know who the Ravens don't have. Their number one Pro Bowl wide receiver is A Flowers. He's not
going to play in this game. So again, don't need to go more in depth about the spread and what it is, but Lamar I think he's going to struggle a little bit here as a passer, as traditionally has been the case, with him facing the Pittsburgh Steelers defense both games this year, exactly two hundred and seven passing yards. His prop is at two hundred and twenty and a half passing yards. So I'm gonna take the under. He's been under that three straight games, five of his last
seven contests. And when the Ravens beat the Steelers the last time they played, who was the big playmaker was not Bateman, it was not Andrews, it was A Flowers, who is not going to play in this game. So I'm going under on Lamar Jackson passing yards.
I actually like under on his passing prop even more than I like this Steelers plus the points like that. That is another line that makes no sense to me. The Steelers blitzed the Ravens at twice the rate they blitzed anybody else this season in those two matchups, and Lamar, when he's blitzed like Zay Flowers, is the outlet and he's it's not one hundred percent official that he's not playing, but it looks extremely likely that he's not going to play,
at least for this week. I do not if the Ravens win by ten or more points, it will be because Derek Henry, you know, blew up. It won't be because Lamar threw for two hundred and fifty passing yards. So I I could not agree with you more ericson. I do not get this line at all. Obviously, I hope it's right. As a Ravens fan, that would be delightful, but I am certainly expecting a lower scoring game than
the total wood tjest. I'm certainly expecting fewer passing yards. Well, Shaw, do you see this one?
Yeah?
And I believe also to throw this in. I believe four Lamar Jackson interceptions. Half of those came from the Steelers this year, So just to throw that out as well. That doesn't throw a lot of receptions, but sure has against the Pittsburgh Steelers. So yeah, I completely agree with this kind of across the board Ravens win. I think this is way too big of a spread. The obviously the Ravens are going to want to keep this on the ground is as much as they possibly can. You
talk about the outlet, I think that opens up. I guess I've kind of been like an Isaiah Likely guy some this year. We've done it on the Prop show. You might get more of that, but I think they're going to struggle with a lot more deep ball stuff.
But with them holding a lead and especially in time clock management, I think what that's going to lead to is obviously the Steelers being able to cover, is they're going to get back to what they have done early on the year and they've really lacked success as of recent It's just slanging the ball, just Russ getting back and slaying it. And that comes to my prop of getting George Pickens back involved in this game. And we're
going to go with this longest reception. So this is a very betty you know, like in the betting show that we would talk about, but you want to hit this is George Pickens twenty three point five longest reception on the year. Prior to the last game where he just got shut out, he had hit this in eight straight games. He has had a already actually thirty yard reception or bigger in eight straight games prior to this. Eleven of fourteen games this season, he has also just
hit that marker. He had twelve targets versus the Ravens in his last outing and had a thirty seven yeard reception. So I think the Steelers are going to be playing from behind in a lot of this, and I think that is going to obviously get them throwing the ball deep. They've got to get picked I mean, I know they can keep doing this game where it's like, oh the pickens is you know, he's having this awful game, or
they're just moving to other targets. I think the Ravens are going to do a good job of shutting down Pat Fryermouth, who was the outlet passer, and you can throw a bit against the Baltimore Ravens. So I think they're going to do that. You're going to get pickings back involved. So from a prediction standpoint, it's very betty prediction. He's going to go over he's going to have a big reception in this game. To what capacity ends up being doesn't matter because we just want twenty three point
five over. So that's my big George Pickens play Ravens win, Steelers cover pretty chock.
Yeah, I like the under on forty three and a half. So I will say I do like a lot of of Derrick Henry's props. I like over on ninety nine and a half rushing yards. I like over on five and a half receiving yards for Dereck Henry actually a lot. I also I really like plus four hundred on the last player to score a touchdown for Derrick Henry. So I like a lot of the props on him. Yeah. The thing is, like I have fought back really hard against the like Lamar playoff narrative because I think it's
like entirely without contexts. He has four losses and three of them came like four, five and six years ago in like just very different circumstances than he's in now. So like, I think the playoff stuff with Lamar is really overblown and like not, I think it's a mischaracterization of him. I don't think that's through the Steelers' problems. I think those are very legitimate, and the Steelers, like just specifically, do play him well and like I will
not be surprised if he struggles in this game. Statistically speaking, I do think they will win ultimately. But as I've said a bunch, I don't get this line really at all. So we'll see, how do you think it should be?
What do you think it should be?
Then it should be what it was last time? It was minus seven.
That's exactly what about I said. I was gonna say six point five.
Yeah, there's no difference between the Steelers are putting out a better roster than they did in that game and the Ravens are putting out a worst roster.
The other thing, too, is like in that game, people go, oh, well, the Ravens blew them out. That was a one score game with the Steelers having the ball before the pick six from Marlin Humphrey. Like that is what turned the game and made it look like a blowout. It was not a blowout in that like the way, Oh, the Ravens also recovered a bunch of fumbles in that game too, that helped, Like.
And they also fumbled the ball three times they didn't Yeah, they Yeah, they didn't. They didn't turn over the ball. And when again I wrote this all down for the betting problem, looking right at it right now. So the game was tied seventeen, all five minutes left remaining in the third quarter, and Chris Balls well after the Steelers score touchdown, kicked the ball out of bounds and the Ravens got a short field scored touchdown pick six, good night, And then that was the end.
This is six point five are you betting on the Ravens? If this is minus six six and a half? Are you going Ravens and you take?
I think and a half is the right line that I think that When you said that, I was like that that is the correct line in my mind because that is the which I don't know what direction I would go. I would probably take the Steelers, honestly, just like I think it's smart it's historically looking at this rivalry to just blindly if a team is getting over four and a half points, just take the underdog in this rivalry like they're almost always going to cover. And again,
I think people are overreacting to the last game. To Erickson's point, this is a healthier Steelers team than they were in that game, and the Ravens are more depleted, they don't Not having save Flowers is a huge deal. And again, I still think the Ravens will win again. I would love nothing more than to be wrong and to see them blow out their bitter rival. But I just it's really hard for me to play out the scenario where that actually happens.
Well, considering my prediction is that the Ravens are going to win, I mean, well, we be on this show.
Yeah, what the hell, Eric sat We're talking about NFL playoffs? You bet we are getting on the action at DraftKings sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL. Scoring touchdowns is key to winning in the NFL. Player and the kid to you scoring big is betting on them at DraftKings, the number one place to bet touchdowns. Ready to place your first bet, Try betting on something simple like a player to score six. Go to the Draftking sports book app and make your pick. We've got an
awesome slate for Wildcard weekend. A couple of close games projected, also some intriguing projective blowouts. We just talked about raven Steelers. That should always be fun, even in the playoffs with a big spread, and the Broncos are playing as well as anyone despite being eight and a half point underdogs in Buffalo. The other games all have smaller spreads, but we get some really fun QB matchups we talked about
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Slash bball Guys, what would you set the under over at the amount of times are going to play the Love Hurt song during that time game?
It's six and a half.
It's a good line. It's a pretty good line. That's like maybe to go the over, Uh, let's.
Go to Brodcos Bills. This is another one. This one, I'm more understanding of what the line is like just given kind of where these teams are at and there's less of a history here there with Ravens Steelers. Having said that, like the Broncos, I do think are playing well, even though it was came against the backups in week eighteen, So I do think this numbers a little heights eight and a half for in favor of the Bills. Ericson what's your prediction on this one.
Yeah, I was kind of surprise too that it's this big, but I think it's just the market love for the Buffalo Bills and they are looking at his Hey, it's still a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start on the road in a hostile environment. So I think that's kind of reason why you're not getting as much love on the Denver side. And that's kind of the game
script I'm projecting here. I'm projecting the Buffalo Bills to be playing here with a strong lead, and that leads me to taking the under on I know he's a favorite of us Worm and actually Welsh as well. Welsh was the guy that was first pounding Younger. The first under Welsh ever took was on object Estima, which he was right, and I'm going to trace the I'm going to follow him here. Aldric Estime is going to fish with under six and a half carries against the Buffalo Bills.
So last week Estima had like the perfect game script. They're blowing out the backup teams. He had twelve carries for thirty four yards, scored a touchdown, but still operating behind Julia McLoughlin as the number one running back when it comes to working on early downs, and then Javonte Williams is kind of the running back that's sprinklinging on
third downs in passing situations. So in this game with their massive underdogs, I expect Jvonte Williams potentially lead the team in snaps because he can't think he's gonna running the most routes out of the backfield. And with estimate what his usage was in Week eighteen. He saw six of his twelve carries in the Broncos final drive in the fourth quarter, when the game was already well out of reach. I mean the Chiefs had their four stringers in at that point. During the first three quarters of
the game, McLoughlin had fourteen carries, Estima had two. He had two carries in the first three quarters of the game where they were blowing out the team the entire time, so he didn't get until straight up garbage time. So six and a half carries in a game where I don't expect them to be playing with the lead at any point potentially, That's how I feel really confident about
the usage here. So you know, projecting this Broncos backfield has always been really tough, so I'm going to the one time it's worked out has been hitting on the under, where Welsh was just so spot on with it and which went against everything in his being to take an under, but he did so accurately, So that stays in my
mind and that's why I'm going here with this. So I'm going to take the under here because again before the fourth quarter of last week's game, he was sitting on two carries for four yards, So against the Bills, that's going to be no bueno. So under six and a half carries for estimate.
What do you think about this one?
Welsh? Yeah, I mean, first off, I kind of like that one as well. It's a low, scary number, but I like that on estimate. I think this is going to be one of the blowout situations, Like I think the Bills are going to blow out the Broncos in this situation. And coming back to what you're talking about with estimate, I think that's part of the problem. And first off, just the Bill's offense, the Bills offense in general, James Cook, you're running back touchdown later, Josh Allen. This
bevy of wide receivers. It's funny because it's like the Broncos do a version of what the Bills do. The Bills just slang into a bunch of different receivers. They just do it really well. The Broncos are okay with it. I think everything is going to click on the Broncos side or the Bill side. The Broncos they don't have a running game, and I think that is going to hurt them. Obviously, the rookie quarterback situation is going to be in play here. I think the Bills are going
to blow the Broncos out in this situation. So that is my game script here where if I had to bet on one game where it's going to go in this direction, this is going to be the game. Because if Josh Allen can't sling the ball these this team breaks off huge, big runs. It's not like they're going to have some clock management where it's like, all right, you know, four yard, three yard boom, we've just killed six minutes. Like no, they'll break up fifty yard touchdowns
the next thing, you know. And it's twenty one to nothing in the second quarter and they've thrown the ball three times, and I don't think the Broncos have the pass wherewithal to be able to make up for that against the Bills, and they don't have a running game that's going to be able to chalk in. I think really easy first downs, like you know, third and three or anything like that. And that comes to where my prop is going to come into play. It's Bonnicks. I
think bo Nicks is going to be running again. He was running early on in the year, then it just he just stopped running, and then all of a sudden, over the last month or so, it's back. He started running again. Twenty three point five is his rushing yard prop in this game. I think he might smash this. To be honest with you, He's hit this in three
of his last four games. Bills, by the way, are giving up over right around five yards per carry to quarterbacks on the year, even though they haven't given up these big, huge games. Nicks on those five yards per carry, has had seven or more rushes in three of his last four games. And I think he is going to be the guy that's going to be doing that running. He's going to be the guy that has that quick
setback and boom, he's going to hit the middle. They don't have much of a running game, don't be surprised when bo Nicks has more carries than arodric estimate in this game. So I like him from that betting perspective to hit those rushing yards. And I really do think the Bills are probably going to beat up on the Broncos.
I think my approach in thinking about this game is that if he set aside the quarterbacks, which obviously won't be the case in the real game, like there is a very wide gap between Josh Allen and Boonix, But if you set aside the quarterbacks, I think these teams are like largely like pretty even. I think the Broncos have the better defense. I don't think the gap in sort of offensive talent around the quarterback is that wide. I'm not even sure which head coach I'd rather have.
I think it's probably Sean Payton of the two, which I wouldn't have said a year ago. But I think he's really bounced back really well. And I'm just not convinced that the gap between Josh Allen and Bonix is alone. If you think the rest of it is fairly close, is worth the eight and a half. But it wouldn't totally stun me if this ended up being a blowout right right, like Ali could go nuclear.
I think any you give me any Bills running back, just Tyler Johnson Ray Davis better than any Broncos running back. So all three of the running backs are better than any singular running back that they've got. So the running game is not even remotely close. Maybe it's closer when you're talking about the pieces. Maybe it's closer in the wide receiver corps. Maybe like Courtland Sutton individually is probably like the best wide receiver here, But then it's just
a bunch of pieces. Like Veyle can be fun, Marvin Mims is obviously fun. But I mean you look at the Bills and it's like Amari Cooper leadership, Keon Coleman in saying great athleticism, Khalil should. I don't think it's particularly super close on the wide receivers. I don't think the running backs are remotely close offensive line on the Bill.
So I know what you're saying here. Defensively, I'll take the Broncos, but I don't think there's any other piece that I would have even probably in the same territory Broncos to Bills. But I might be wrong. This is a big spread this might be some foolish one.
I think I see it a little closer than you do. In terms of the offensive like support system around the quarterbacks. I do agree the Bills is better, but I think the gap between the defenses is wider in favor of the Broncos than the offenses aside from the quarterback is in favor of the Bills. But I do think it's close. My ultimate point is that I don't know that the difference between Josh Allen and Boonix like makes up for how close I see the rest of it in terms of this way you.
Take the Bills put up thirty points because they do. Like, that's where I see the Broncos running in issues. I don't think they're going to win the shoot out.
I don't think they score thirty Okay, I think they score high twenties. Like I think I think this game that's gonna be played in the mid to high twenties.
Well that's that. But that's their path to keep it close. They got to keep it under that for sure.
And this is not one that I'm like stopping my foot and like planting my flag like this. The Broncos are definitely covering or anything like that.
Well, you do live in Denver.
I was just about to say worm does live in Colorado. So I think it's like a little.
Closer to your bone next Jersey.
Yeah, you're a little close.
You know.
You're a Ravens fan through and through. Like I'm in here in Arizona. The Arizona Cardinals were on the play I'll be smashing them. I hate the Cardinals here, but you got a little bit of love.
For so many people asked me when I moved to Denver or even become a Broncos fan. I was like, no, like they're they're not in the same They're in the same conference as the Ravens. I would never root for them over the Ravens, like in a playoff matchup or anything like that. It's like, not even close. But we'll see other play I'm actually really excited for this game, Like, I know it's a big spread, but it's one of the games I'm most looking forward to watching this weekend.
So we'll see how that one plays out. Let's go to the NFC matchups. For whatever reason, the uh, the NFL had the three AFC matchups first, and then NFC, NFC, NFC. Well, She'll start with you on this one, Packers Eagles. What's your prediction here?
My big prediction overall is actually not going to center around a player. I think the Eagles are going to win this one. But the biggest prediction I'm going to play to the under. I think the under is in play for this. It actually moved up a half a point. It was like forty five like a day ago. It's going to forty five and a half. And part of my problem with this has been the stuttering of both of these offenses. On paper, this is a great game, you know, the version of the Packers that's in our
brain from earlier in the season. Great game, but that Packer team is not there right now. I mean we saw this on display at the back half of this year where all of a sudden, Jordan Love they don't seem to have the same confidence every single week in Jordan Love to be slaying the ball. They've really really pushed to running the ball more. They lost Christian Watson as a big down the field guy, so I'm worried
about whatever is going on with Jordan Love. I'm worried about them being down one of those pieces in Christian Watson that spreads the ball really deep. People have been targeting out you can see on Twitter. You know, it's like the top two dropped passes wide receivers are Tobs and Wix right now. I mean they're like the dynamic duo of dropped passes. Jayden Reid hasn't been involved. It's Josh Jacobs. So what I'm getting at is like this
team I don't think even has a dimension. Where we then go back to the Eagles and what do we say. Pretty much through like twelve weeks of the Eagles, we're like, well, they're one dimensional. They have sakuon Barkley and they haven't been able to pass. Okay, maybe that has you know, rectified itself a little bit, but you've got this injured Jalen Hurts, you know, and like what obviously, like I think he's going to play, but the status has been
in question. But you know, their passing game puts this in question. So let's bring it all back. These both of these teams are going to establish a win on the ground. Both of these defenses, too, are top six and least points given up per game. So these are good defenses overall that are going to halt down the passing game. Their offenses are going to keep it on the ground. Yes, you know, they may score some points and they may be able to drive the ball. Saquon Barkle,
the best running back in the league. Josh Jacobs was phenomenal. But I really do think there is an opportunity that both of these teams are going to kill a lot o'clock. You might have a couple drives that are going to stall because we know the Packers aren't going to be throwing the ball super deep and there's been big inefficiencies from Jordan Love. So at the end of the day,
I want to play the under on this game. And frankly, this is very betting pros here, but like a little teaser of the under of this game and the Ravens game is calling to me and screaming to me, because that teas would then mean the points would go up and you'd have both of these games to score under fifty. I think that's in play. Obviously on paper, the Eagles and Packers looks like it could be this explosive, big
output of offense. I just don't think it is with stingier defenses and teams that have been thriving keeping the ball on the ground, So I'm going to play the under. But I do think that at the end of the day, the Eagles are going to run away with this.
I didn't mention this, by the way, but the spread in this one is four and a half Eagles slaying four and a half. Jalen Hurts is practicing today on Wednesday, of the day we're recording this. We'll see kind of how that continues to play out. The talk has been seemingly very likely that he will he will be playing in this game as he comes back from concussion protocol. So ericson Welsh likes the under. Do you agree with that or do you prefer the over?
I do not prefer the over now. I think that Welsh slid it out perfectly. There are two defenses that are good and they want to run the football right. Those are just trends that scream towards Hey, this game is going to go under. You're going to totally see the Eagles come out flat because Jalen Hurst has missed so much time and the Eagles office has been bad in the first halfs of games anyway, So we not
surprised me at all. People start freaking out when the Packagers jump out to a lead and they end up losing in the end because the Eagles are playing at home. I think the Eagles always kind of rite the ship in the second half anyway. But I think the under is to play this game. To me, screams twenty three to twenty like that scores is kind of in my mind, like, yes, it'll get up over forty points, but eventually it just
won't get there. As like you're going to be sweating the under at the end of the game, Welsh, like you're in the first half, for you'd be like, all right, it's going to be ten to three in the first half, Packers ten to three, and I'm just like all.
Right, I'm feeling good. And then all of a sudden, it's going to be like you know, like you're saying, twenty is gonna be tied up at twenty into the fourth quarter with five minutes left.
Yeah, I think this game. I think the Packers are live here to cover the four and a half points because they're I don't know, man, they played good in postseason games like last year, right, they were seven point underdogs against the Cowboys. They won that game, and then they were ten point underdogs against the forty nine ers and they almost won that game. They ended up losing by a field goal. But I think, I don't know Jordan Love, just he finds a way in the playoffs.
So I do think they're going to cover here, but I think the Eagles pull it out. But kind of going off of the under of the points, I'm going under on Jordan Love in the passing yard. So two hundred twenty seven and a half passing yards. So he's been under this number in three straight games, five of his last seven games playing. That's just not concluding last week where he only played half the game. And we just look at the Eagles all season long, this has
been one of the best bets to make. Just take the under on the passing yards whoever is facing the Philadelphia Eagles since they're by week, only two quarterbacks have gone over their passing arts projection, Lamar Jackson and Jade and Daniels. Those are the only two guys that have been able to do it. So and then when you take out Christian Watson, out of the consideration of receivers
to throw to Love is three and seven. Going under his passing yards prop with Christian Watson, so thirty percent and over the last two seasons. But he's been on the road. He's only hit the over on his passing arts projection one time without Christian Watson in the lineup, So yes, can they replace Watson's production maybe with these other receivers, But considering all the drops, it's just it's not a good bet to make. Hey, this is gonna be the game where he can throw for three hundred
passing yards. Not without Christian wats it's even more unlikely that's going to happen. So kind of parlaying the under in the game totally probably means you're gonna see less passing yards overall. So I like the under on Jordan Love.
I know I've made a couple of like predictions of you know, the team that's getting points covering already. This is the game where I think the upset could actually happen. Like, I would predict the Eagles to win, but it would not shock me if the Packers did. Like, it's really hard to forget how awesome they looked in their two playoff games last year. To your point, Erickson, and you know, the Eagles like haven't had Hurts for a couple of weeks. Maybe there's there's some rust there, so I.
Mean it Hurts is also one hit away from like being out of the game again and then that team becomes again back to that one dimensional side. I agree with you on this too. Again very betting prosy, but like this, would you say four and a half right now, Like, yeah, that's a prime Packers teaser the number if I've ever seen it, because that would get your Packers to plus ten and a half, And that's that's exactly what you
would want. You would want to get over one of those markers, those key indicators of betting, like you know, that's seven. If if a team was you know, minus one and a half or plus one and a half and you could tease them down, that would go over a touchdown. This would be over a touchdown and a field goal. So Packer, I agree with you. Packers are in play for this on the spread and probably like one of
those tease pieces. I would not be shocked if the Packers walked away with this, especially though this would have to kind of counter I think what Erickson is talking about, Jordan Love is going to have to be like that big spectacular Jordan Love where there's in the ball and you know they're finding Jane Reed just like comes alive the Undertaker mean, ooh, he's just back and he comes alive. Like they would need to have big plays. But I think that's the problem of what has gone away. Play
calling doesn't seem to trust him. But if they win this game, to me, this is him smashing all of that. He's going over three hundred yards, He's having three touchdowns like he's blown them up in the air.
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right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. All right, Commanders Buccaneers, Welsh, what's your prediction here?
I first think that this will be the best game of the weekend. This is the one I'm looking most forward to. Buccaneers, obviously, I think are a super scary team with what they've been able to do in the passing game. Their running game is super scary. Defensively, we'll kind of see where that goes. But from a game perspective, I kind of don't want to give you like who's going to win this game. I want to say this
will be the best game of all of them. And my favorite from a prediction standpoint is betting on Bucky, which, by the way, I do think the Commanders can win this game. I'm going to lean on the Buccaneers here, and I'm going to lean on Bucky as I think they will as well. Bucky is going to go over one hundred on the ground and hit a touchdown, and that's actually something from a pure betting perspective, I'm going
to parlay together. So go Bucky plus one hundred and a touchdown get you two to one on your money. Bucky has had fifteen to twenty carries per game over the last month, and that was always the big early season thing. It was like, ah, we love Bucky, he's crazy, but it's like, I need more than twelve carries and then catches, and that's ended up happening. He's getting twenty touches per game. Washington is giving up the fourth most rushing yards to running backs on the year and sixth
most rushing yards over the last month. Jadan Daniels is going to keep them in the game the whole time. And that's why I think this game can be so great. They got Eckler back, they've got an established running game, they've got the passing game, and they've got Jadan Daniels. But if you can definitively tell me who the best quarterback in this matchup, is good on you. Because Baker's been great, but so is Daniels. So where's the big
defining factor here? And I think it is in the Buccaneers can run the ball at a very high level and Washington gives up a lot on the rushing side. So I think that's where the Buccaneers are going to be able to take over from this and I think Bucky is going to have a very big, big, established game, hopefully Mike Evans, who's back from the casino, and there's no incentives that he can pout about that he doesn't hit until the playoffs. But we're not gonna worry about
any of that. We're just going to play on Bucky. So this will be the best game, maybe the game we're talking about the most coming off of the weekend is that addiction and Bucky Irving one hundred rushing with a touchdown.
Eric said, I'm curious to get your opinion both on Bucky Irving in this matchup, but also Welsh's causes this will be the game of the weekend.
I agree. I think that this is the game where you don't bet the sides, bet the total, take the over, have some fun, have someone on Sunday night football route for both quarterbacks. Just ball out points galore. That's how you want approach this game because I think that, like Welsh said, it's tight spread for a reason. Field goal.
Two offenses that are very explosive, have dynamic weapons, so you're not gonna feel good about that ticket when you have two teams that rank respectively top three in points scored efficiency all in the fourth quarter, so your team may be winning entering the fourth quarter, it's not safe because that the lead's gonna flip and flop, So just take the points here. And to that point as well, maybe it should have been my prediction that the games is going to go over fifteen and a half points.
The Buccaneers have played eight games this year where the spread has been four and a half points or less, So whether they've been favored by four and a half points or underdogs bey four and a half points, eight games all overs, every single one is gone over the total. So when they play in games that we're projecting to be tight or back and forth in any capacity, it is back and forth. So I'm expecting points here. And that's why I love the Jade and Daniels prop so
over on his passing yards. We know the book this is. This is Rins his repeat with Todd Bulls defense since he entered the league. Right stuff to run throw all over us, And I think that's what you're gonna see from Jayden and Daniels. I think he's gonna throw and he's gonna run and him and Terry McLaurin, I think this could be like a monster game for McLaren So I'll just take the over on his receiving yards PROP sixty receiving yards against the Buccaneers, and Daniels has gone
over his passing arts PROP in three straight games. So look, he had the second half off of last week. They didn't play him because he was h Dallas's passers was getting after him real quick, So okay, let's take him out of the game get ready for again. That actually matters. So I think that he's just going to just completely ball out in this game. I don't know if they're gonna
end up winning it. He's gonna be honestly, might come down whoever has the possession last that wins this game, but it's gonna be a shootout, and I expect the offensive rookie of the year to ball out and McLaurin to be his number one guy.
Was the right game for Sunday Night Football? Like when when building the schedule.
Yeah, I think the schedule makers did it right.
The Houston game in Saturday afternoon obvious, and then you have to end with the four or five game on Monday, so there's only other one four or five games, so that was obvious as well. I thought Broncos Bills was very clearly like the Sunday afternoon That's just what it felt like. The other three I could have seen kind of being rotated in any order between Saturday night, Sunday
late afternoon, and Sunday night. I like the schedule we got, but this was the one where I was I was surprised to see it in sundayight football, and I think I love it.
But yeah, the only the only adjustment I would make looking at this schedule is I would put Packers and Eagles on Monday. And I know it might be like a seeding thing, that's fine, but like I would rather watch the Packers and Eagles on Monday to finish off the playoffs because of like how that game could go. But otherwise, like I'm fine with this. I think this is gonna be like on paper, maybe it doesn't look
you're like the Commanders and Bucks. It's going to be like the best We're gonna We're gonna love having that game there.
Yeah, they do have to do the four or five game on Monday. I actually wish we didn't have a Monday game. Like I prefer three on Saturday, three on Sunday, and nothing on Monday. But if they have to do it this way, spread out over three days like this is a pretty great but.
You got to remember there's one thing I've done this before, so apologies, but worm NFL cash rules everything around me. Cream get the money? Mind yet why they do it?
I just don't like it. Let's go to that Vikings Rams game, last game on the slate. Well else, we'll start with you again. What is your prediction for Vikings Rams? And by the way, just because I keep forgetting to say it, this is a one and a half point spread. Vikings are laying one and a half on the road and the total is forty seven and a half.
I think the Vikings might tear this up. I think they might end up tearing this up. But I know why this spread is there. And obviously you know the you know the Rams have hit a stride and they've offensively. You've got Cup, You've got Pooka, You've got the pieces that you need. Vikings played down especially last week and looked really bad with Darnold. I think this is going to be rectified. I think the Vikings are going to cover. Love the spread. Anything under three makes me feel a
lot better. But Vikings win, they cover this spread. And in the player prediction market of my actual predictions, Jefferson, Justin Jefferson is going to have a big game. He got shut out in that last one. His reception yard prop is what I'm targeting. It's at six and a half nine or more targets he has seen in four straight games. They cooked him in that last outing. As I mentioned, I think he had nine targets only three catches, but he had hit this reception yard prop in five
straight games prior to that last game. He hit this also in the previous matchup against the Lions. So they are going to be hot and heavy getting the ball to Justin Jefferson. I don't know why Darnold didn't want to look at Jordan Addison. Maybe they'll rectify that wide opening the end zone. Don't worry about it. It's going to be all Justin Jefferson though, And I do think this team is going to be able to find a
much bigger success of throwing the ball. So I'm going to go with Justin Jefferson over six and a half receptions. By the way, I think I mentioned the last thing note I wrote incorrectly. I said he hit this in the last outing. I was referring to the Lions in that I don't know why I did that, but five straight games of hitting this reception yard prop, he's smashing this one. So give me Justin Jefferson over six and a half.
Erickson, what do you think about Jefferson in this one? Six and a half receptions, ninety and a half is the receiving yards line? You know, first steschdown score plus six fifty? Any of these standouts to you?
I mean, going back to Justin Jefferson, I think after a bad game makes a ton of sense. You know, wide receiver production tends to be up and down. And it's funny becausehen you look at Justin Jefferson's final accounting stats this year, and because he didn't really have any of those really Marquee absolutely like Jamar Chase blow up games. He had like fifteen hundred receiving yards Like oh, like he was fine, Like he was totally good. He was all said and even. And that's coming off with that
Week eighteen dud two. So yeah, I think going it's fun to bet overs when they're not totally like out of control on elite players, right, Like it's fun to be overs on justin Jefferson because he's nasty and he could do this in the first half. So especially against the Rams defense that's been terrible in the secondary all year long. I don't if they try to do what the lines did to the Vikings offense, I just don't
think it's gonna work. I don't think you're gonna see the Rams try to like, oh, we'll just the man coverage, it'll be great, Like it'll be fine, we'll just splitz. Maybe works. I mean, Donald's gonna bounce back. I mean, He's not going to complete under fifty percent of his passes for the second straight game. It just all eyes are on Donald and he just totally just failed to live up to the expectation. But he gets another shot at it here in the playoffs, so I think we're
going to see a bounce back effort from him. And also, the thing is the Rams offense hasn't nearly looked as good either, but they just rested their guys last week, so we didn't get to see Matthew Stafford kind of struggle, which has kind of been his case in the Rams offense over the last couple of weeks.
So what's your prediction of this one.
Then, yeah, going back to the Rams offense, right, Matthew Stafford under two hundred thirty eight and a half passing yards. So he's under two hundred and forty passing yards in four of his last five games. And this is the trend that I'm looking at and I ignored when Welsh and I were all over the Jordan Love props against Minnesota Vikings that the Minnesota Vikings defense and Brian Flores
has done a wonderful job in terms of rematches. When I look at the quarterbacks that have faced the Vikings, five of the last eight quarterbacks who faced the Vikings have exceeded their passing yards prop by an average of almost one hundred passing yards. So you might think, wait, I thought you want to take the under on Matthew Stafford.
I do, because you look at the quarterbacks that have not exceeded the passing arts projection, they're all the quarterbacks that was the rematch the second time they played the Minnesota Vikings. Caleb Williams under second time, Jordan Love under second time, Jared Goff under second time. Rams Vikings rematch from week eight, Matthew Stafford under second time against the
Minnesota Vikings. So I'm trusting the process here with Brian Flores, trusting his defense to make adjustments and slow down this rams passing attack which has become Puka Nakua and Cooper c which Pooka Pooka, then Poka Pooka and more Pooka.
Well, what do you think about the Stafford prop here?
Yeah, I'm I'm absolutely with this one. Like I think this is a team that's going to have to establish as best as possible on the ground with Kyron Williams.
I don't know if it's going to be big play stuff, you know, the whole one of the one themes too, just to throw out with the Vikings that I just remember from like whatever it was we two or three when the forty nine ers were getting trounced by the Vikings, was like everyone's talked about schemes, like the defensive schemes that the Vikings have put together have really put weight on quarterbacks and you know, just bracketing coverages and stuff
like that. So I'm with this one. The only caveat would be I'm open to this game also blowing up like in favor of the Vikings and if that happens. That's then going to put the Rams in a situation where they're going to be constantly throwing the ball, and if you put enough volume on that, I think there could maybe a little bit of a problem with it. What was the number again on it on Stafford.
Two thirty five and a half?
Yeah, cool man, And that that's a lot. They want you to smash the over on that too. Oh my god, you see that like a playoff game ramp. They want you to smash that over. That's like a warning sign. But I love the breakdown, especially the after game the rematch cover of what Ericson's with. So I'm with this one because I do think this is an all Vikings game.
Yeah, it's funny. The two four or five games, which theoretically should be close, are the two that I feel best about, like a blowout, Like I really think Vikings could like just completely dominate the Rams, and like I said at the beginning, I think the Chargers could dominate the Texans.
This might be one of those things too where we're like we come off of the high of this great Sunday night game and we're like, oh my god, just football is awesome. And then Monday, it was just like it's the suckiest game and we're just like this is stupid, Like you turn it off in the third quarter, vikings are up, you know whatever, thirty to three and it's boy and it's like one of those classic lightdown games. Don't be surprised if that happens as well.
We'll see how it goes. Really excited for the late Basically, no matter who wins these games, the divisional round is going to be awesome. So I'm really excited for the next two weekends. Like I said at the top of the show, we'll wrap up there. Hopefully we did pretty well in these predictions. We'll see how we do and we will be back next week to try again at the divisional round for Ericson and Welsh Ryan Whelming. Thanks for tuning in and we'll see you again next week. Thanks
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