Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined today by Chris Welsh and Andrew Eric sant Bellas. We are into the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. It is for a lot of people the best weekend of the year. It's been a common refrain that you hear people say, you know, Super Bowl is obviously fun, but it's just one game. It's more casual, you know, even Conference Championship Day it's just one day.
There's only two games. Divisional Round. You get four excellent matchups. You get teams that have either gotten a bye or already won a game to really earn their place here. It's spread out over two days, a very clean slate. I am really excited. Where Welsh does Divisional Round rank for you?
I guess I hadn't really thought about like a level of excitement, you know that. I'm like, oh, set the clocks for Divisional Round. But to your point, these are the games, These are the for the most part. I mean, I didn't need to see the Texans in here, but you know what, they've played better. But like the idea that we're going to get, you know, like the Bill's Ravens game. It's going to be phenomenal. Eagles Rams is gonna be great, Lions Commanders might sneakily again, just with
how the Commanders have been playing. So yeah, I'm in agreement with you. I think it's more like hindsight when you look at it, like, oh, this will probably be the best weekend of them. But I hadn't really given it thought, like you know, this is the weekend to put on your calendar and get ready to go, but it's gonna be awesome.
Have you given that thought? Ericson where does this rank for you if you've thought about it?
Yeah, I think that it's the week that the anticipation is at its peak for NFL. For these are all gonna be great matchups because, like you said, you have everyone's coming off a win, right, either coming off the buy or coming off the win coming off a win, so there's hope on both sides. But rightfully, so we know why the top seeds had a bye week, so it's like, oh, reminder, Oh, the Chiefs are really good. Oh the Lions are really good. So don't get too
comfortable again. Those are both massive spreads, right, eight and a half points of the Chiefs fair against the Texans nine and a half points. That is unusual look at, but it's a test to Yeah, the number one seeds in each conference are really good teams. And yes, the Commanders and Texans one last time, so oh, maybe there's a chance. I like to think that that's probably not a chance that those are the upsets that we get this week.
Obviously, I'm excited for Ravens Bills. I hate that it's the last game, just personally because I'm gonna be thinking about it during all the other matchups, and like, I'll enjoy why they're great games. I'm really excited for this weekend, but in the back of my head, I won't be able to fully, like just relax and turn my worrying brain off because I'll be thinking about Ravens Bills the
entire time. It's the correct game to be last and kind of the big kapper to everything, but for me personally, I hate it and we'll be struggling through the weekend for that reason. Let's see how you guys did during wild Card weekend and our predictions show last week. Both guys were wrong on the Chargers winning, though Welsh did hit his prop on lad McConkie yardage by like a lot. I think he topped his prop by over one hundred yards. Ericson was spot on with the Ravens game and Lamar's
passing yards. Welsh, you did hit your Pickens prop, but you're wrong about the steel covering. Ericson easily hit his object estimate under considering estimate did.
Not play well.
You were all over your Bills pick and Boni's rushing prop. Erickson nailed his Eagles pick with the Jordan Love under. Welsh nailed the game with the under hitting as well. Ericson spot on with doubling down on the Commander's passing attack on Sunday night. Welsh was right about that easily being the best game of the weekend. It wasn't even remotely close. That was the best game of the weekend, even though Bucky Irving did fall short of Welsh's hundred
rushing yard prediction. Finally, Ericson hit his Matthew Stafford under a Monday night. While Welsh was wrong about both the Vikings win and the Jefferson over On receptions, easily Ericson's best week of the season.
I mean, I think me and Wealth both did pretty good.
You vot did well, but wel she has had good weeks already. This is your first good weekend.
This is the first time I winning week, I think where I didn't go onh five. So you know, that's the magic of having less games to go through, right, I can focus, hyper focus on each individual matchup. I feel like I can come with a better product. And that's why I think did better, you know, with these predictions. So with only four games in the divisional round, looking
for to to that coming out. But of course it started off terribly with the Chargers getting absolutely you know, boat raced against the Chargers or against the Texans, So didn't start off great, but finish strong. The trifecta of passing yards unders on the three quarterbacks all under their passing yard, so that's a lot of fun. And I
don't know how Stafford. I mean, if Taler Hagby hadn't gotten injured, I was gonna get cooked, like Stafford was dealing on Monday, and I was getting tagged on X about oh this this bet is going to go up in flames. But they stopped throwing because the Vikings couldn't do anything and they just ran them ball in the second half, So let's run it back.
I was almost right about the Chargers game being the biggest blowout. I just thought it was going to be in the other direction that one, and I was very tough.
So you own everybody, you and every single person out.
There are more interceptions in that game that he did.
All say stuff that should be a lesson, like if the entire world is like all on one side, just we should go the other dry in the future. Welsh, how confident are you going into our predictions for this week's sleep Yeah.
I mean, I mean, like my process even on the ones I didn't hit. Bucky Irving was at like seventy nine yards, got to carry and then he lost to and then they you know, if they had gone to overtime, maybe we hit that. Of course, everybody knows when Justin Jefferson has five catches in the first half, everyone knows on the planet never throw to him again, So that's everybody's game plan and established the run with eight minutes
left in the game when you're down eighteen. But yeah, I mean, I think my process, like across the board was great as far as like the props Go game picks, I had something that I thought were really slow chargers was just a big stupid idiot me. But yeah, I mean I feel pretty good about them. I kind of locked onto a few really really early. There's a couple sneaky, weird ones that I've got going into this weekend as well,
and I'm retreading one, you know. I mean, hat tip to the guy that got on my case about two straight weeks of Justin Jefferson not hitting and then him not hitting. I can't retread him, but I am going to retread one from last week as well that I that did hit, and I think it's going to hit again. So I feel pretty good.
Let's dive into our predictions here. We're going to go chronological order, so we'll start with Texans Chief Texans still locked into that Saturday afternoon time slot ericson start us off. What's your prediction for Texans at Chiefs.
I'm gonna go with Isaiah Pacheco goes over thirty six and a half rushing yards. He operates as the Chiefs RB one. I know that since he's come back from his injury, it's kind of been a two man committee between him and Kareem Hunt. But I think this is the way they finally take the training wheels off of Isaiah Pacheck, like he's had enough time, you know, basically missed the last three weeks with rest. You know, the Chiefs didn't play their stars in Week eighteen, they had
the bye week. So I think if he's ever going to get a full workload, like the time is now, And just looking back at how much the Chiefs have featured Isaiah Pachecko in playoff games when it matters the most, I cannot imagine in any world where they feel we gotta feed Cream Hunt right right. That just doesn't make sense to me, just based on the lack of juice that he has to offer versus Pacheco, who has that bulsiveness. So I don't think it's an entire takeover that you're
gonna see Hunt sprinkled in here and there. But I think it's going to look like Pachecko as the clear RB want and cream Hunt kind of sprinkling as the RB two. So I think he can go over his rushing yards prop I think I really like his odds of scoring a touchdown too. So when we saw this match up in Week sixteen, Cream Hunt led the team in rushing he had fifty five rushing yards. So if cream Hunt could get to fifty five rushing yards, I think Pacheco cauln get over forty if he sees the
bulk of the carries. So I like Pachecko to kind of finish the season strong here in the box score.
Well, so what do you think about this one unless on the actual specific number of yards, but more just do you see this role being Pachecko as the clear RB one Hunt is RB two the way Ericson sees it.
Yeah, I'll be honest, I almost had this one and then I started it and then I looked and I was like, oh, Erickson's got it, because I'm in this is what you were saving Pachecko four. This is the whole process, Like you brought him back, he had some big carries, and then you tailed him back going into the end of the regular season. I mean, because what was it like single digit care I think I think the last two games then you got a bye week.
This is what you've done. I wouldn't be surprised if it smashes and looks like old school Isaia Pachecko in this one, because that is what this is built for. So I love this. I love the idea of him kind of being re established in this offense and Kareem Hunt being kind of that change of pace side of it. I don't think it's beneficial for them to keep Pichecko off the field, and what more you playing for to not so I think this is like, this is smash. I completely agree with ericson.
I hope you guys are right. You know, I picked up Pachecko in season in a lot of places where he was dropped when he was on IR for for several weeks, hoping that he would kind of come back with a vengeance in December and the Fantasy Playoffs stretch run, and it didn't happen. They just never really committed to
him being back in this role. Obviously. Now you've gotten even more time off with this bye week and the Chiefs resting their starters in week eighteen, So if there's a time to do it, like you said, Welsh, like this is what you save him for, and I would love to see him now. The Texas defense is playing really well, so maybe it's a ruggle regardless, but I would love to see him come out in that role on the Texans side of things. Welsh what's your prediction here.
Yeah, by way, I want to add that is my only hesitation across the board is just that Texans run defense. That would be the thing that would hold me back a little bit. And that's where in my game prediction, I'm gonna throw it on another side and we're going to go to DeAndre Hopkins. Not even in any type of revenge scenario though that exists out there. He's got a super low receiving yard prop I immediately went to Xavier Worthy. It's pretty palatable. You know, they just haven't
stretched the ball deep with him. So you know, I was looking at like receptions and that those are pretty juiced and stuff like that if we're thinking of it from like a betting angle. But even outside of just like the straight line, I think like DeAndre Hopkins is going to be more involved. Twenty eight and a half is his receiving yard number for this week. I think he's going to hit that. He's hit that in nine
of his last ten games. He didn't hit that in his last game out, but nine of his last ten, and he did hit this in their last matchup, So you know, Marquise Brown kind of opens the field up a little bit for them. They are spreading the ball out. I think there's a big question of, like, you know, just worthy just continue to take over that perceivable like receipt rice roll where he was getting like seven eight nine targets a game that's probably going to continue to happen.
You've got everybody out there in play for this week, Travis Kelce everybody, but I think DeAndre Hopkins is putting a good spot back to what I started with and what you alluded to. I don't know how well they're going to be able to establish like a dominant running game, so it's probably going to be a lot of passing. So i'd even like semi throw not on the card here that Hopkins is viable for a touchdown. I think he's going to be one of the top red zone
touchdown options when they get over there. So I think he's going to get this over on the receiving yard marker even kind of like the touchdown in there. He will be involved. And this is just a low, nice, nice low number. That's what I was kind of honing in on this weekend.
Excellent. What do you think Welsh kind of mentioned, you know, maybe give some thought to guy like xavierre Worthy instead, is Hopkins the right guy to pick for a prediction like this?
I think when you're looking at I think the number is really key here because the Chiefs like to involve other guys, But like Welsh talked about, Hopkins number is very, very suppressed because he just hasn't been as featured as some of these other players. And when you look at not just getting over this particular number, but getting over his receiving yards projection, like he's been under his prop
most weeks with the Chiefs. But that's why the line is now what it is at twenty eight twenty nine and a half yards, so he can get this on one play. I think I do kind of like the idea of the touchdown instead, just because I think you're gonna get I mean, I have to imagine it's probably three to one odds, and I feel confident that if Hopkins gets targets, it's going to be in the red zone and where do the Texans give up a lot of their production in terms of passing touchdowns. So that's
maybe another way that I would spin it. But I do like Worthy a lot too, because if you just look at the last matchup when these played in Week sixteen, it was all underneath stuff. Take Xavier Worthy and it worked really effectively. He had over sixty yards after the catch in that matchup, So I don't think that they would get away from that. And then Marquis spron Is obviously has has had a tight target rate this year, and if he's playing a larger allotment of snaps, know,
how does that affect Hopkins. But the fact that it's such a low number, yeah, I mean you can get over this on one play. And yeah, the touchdown equity is definitely there.
I'm pulling it up here just to see anytime touchdown scorer on DraftKings plus two sixty five for DeAndre Hopkins.
We're close to three to one. Yeah, I mean, you know it's good. Like red zone option. He's had four targets in nine straight games, you know, so like the target share is there. He's a high catch rate, you know, relative guy. And he's also had six or more targets in three of the last five games. You know, so like the targets are there. Markus Brown does put a little bit of a cloud into it, but also you know,
it's like how much of that rotational stuff. Are we going to see Are we going to see them sprinkling and juju? Are we going to see more justin Watson? Like those things put a big question and if Kelsey and Gray are both out there. But again it is literally coming back to just it's a super low number. You smashed this number. That's why it's so low. You've got your little fun revenge narrator like I'm in, I.
Will say too, And when something I was thinking back up when we're doing all that contract incentive stuff. So when the Titans traded Hopkins to the Chiefs, like there was a certain clause in that trade where if Hopkins played over fifty percent of the snaps, the Chiefs would have to send the Titans a higher draft pick. I don't think that no longer applies anymore. So now they can action because he was always hovering under fifty percent of the snaps. I don't think that was my accident
from the Kansas City Chiefs. Now they don't have to necessarily do that, and he can play like seventy eight percent of the snaps, which again obviously plays and do him hitting over on his receiving yards.
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James Williams's going to catch over four and a half passes over four and a half receptions. He has at least five receptions and six of his last seven games seven plus targets in each contest. So when this line first opened up, it was four and a half at plus money. Now most of the books have it down at three and a half receptions at heavier juice. I don't really care because he's going to catch five passes in this game because that's all he's been doing basically
the last seven games. So again, in a game where you can see the Commanders, you can throw on their defense. Jamison Williams has been really involved, So I like the over What do.
You think about this one? Welsh?
Yeah, I'm totally on this one. I mean, Erickson anything, Jamison Williams, Jamo. I'm always like, give me the yards, give me the receptions. I love you know that like that little just inside route that he'll run like ten yards in I guess like slant and then you know, just the yards after the catch with the yak like that has been a play they've run with him all season long because he's explosive in open field. He's also
clearly a big deep play option. You're gonna be able though, I mean, you know, the one thing you can look at too is you can run against this team and you're gonna have Montgomery back, and you've got Jamier Gibbs and you might have a lot of run established stuff. But you know, jameson Williams on some of those shorter routes. This isn't just like go deep and where the old Jamison Williams it was like you had to hope you were getting your thirty five yard receptions kind of George
Pickens like, that's not the case anymore. They'll run some screen passes, they'll run some short five to ten yard inns and let him try to get yards after the catch. They want to get the ball in his hands. And you get a lot of defenses that are putting heavy coverage on a mon Rus Saint Brown. I would suspect a manra is going to get a lot of that look in this game as well. So this one's just always in play for me. I think this is a
really really good, sneaky one. The only thing that would hold me back is if they are really able to run on Washington and they have just established the you know, the time of possession. It's run first down, second down, short play action, and then they just keep doing that and all of a sudden it's a sixty to forty run over pass. That puts a little bit of a question into into the like him being able to get
into those receptions and maybe yards of being played. But you know, I mean, I think it's gonna be a great think game, and I think Washington is going to keep this within striking distance where this isn't a thing where they're just you know, running the clock out for the whole second half.
So I would actually go against you guys on this, and it's for the reason you just laid out. Well, I think the Lions are going to be able to run very well, just all over the commanders, and they aren't going to need to throw enough to the point that Jameson Williams is getting five or more receptions. I'm not saying he's not gonna get a big play here something like that, like he will be used, but I can't kind of anticipate this to be just a massive
Jamior Gibbs game against this commander's defense. Welsh, what do you think about your prediction for this one?
So I'm this is dirty or this is grosser. And I actually lied at the top of the show because I will say a thing that I liked last week and this is a tease for the Betting Pro show that Ericson and I do it hit last week, and I'm right back on it at the exact same number, but that's not this one that we're gonna talk about, because I'm gonna tie it into someone that is going to be a beneficiary. I'm gonna go with Diami Brown. Another twenty eight and a half seems to be just
my lucky number. If I see that for a receiver that's getting over three to four targets per game in a game where I think they're gonna be throwing the ball, I'm gonna be in and Miami Brown twenty eight and a half receiving yards is that number. I think he's gonna go over. He's hit this in four of his last five games. Five targets, five catches, eighty nine yards in the last matchup in the playoffs, And what can
you do on the Lions? You can pay? What are you also going to probably be doing against the Lions trailing and you're going to have to pass? They're not going to be able to have some big established run. Jaden Daniels has also proven to be a monster completion marker.
There's your tip for what we're going to be talking about on betting pros pimply you had like twenty four to twenty five completions in this he spreads the ball around that defense should be hyper focused on who Terry McLaurin big play options and what does that end up doing. That ends up opening up opportunities for Zakias. That opens up opportunities for Diamie Brown, who Jayden Daniels seems to like right now he is hitting this, he can be
a bigger play option. Is still low total for a team that I think is going to be playing from behind and I don't think you're going to want to play a ton of that screen pass stuff with Austin Eckler. This opens up for zach Ertz as well. But like the best line from a prediction standpoint is Diamie Brown. Now this is very, very more like betting pros betting side and not being like fun in the predictions of
like a touchdown or whatever. But if when I look at this matchup, I see three or four things I really like, this was the number one that jumped out. So I'm gonna say, Demmy Brown is going to have a solid game that I don't know if we're talking about after but we're gonna be like, oh, he's just not some afterthought. He's gonna go over thirty.
Ericson do you agree or disagree on Brown?
I've been a sucker for to Diamie Brown. He's been in the NFL and he has done absolutely nothing until this season. But he was a standout UNC and it's just finally taking this long. He just needed a quarterback, right, He just needed Jay James to unlock his upside. So I actually wrote up his anytime touchdown in last week's Betting pros primer, So very happy to see him score.
Is yelling at the TV. There's Diamy Brown. I knew he was good, so I like this one, especially because Jane Dales does have a tendency to spread the wealth between all of these other receivers, and Diny Brown can be a big play specialist, so I think they're gonna be taking some shots downfield to try to keep pace. So I like this one, even if I mean he can get it done.
On one one catch. Yeah, that's exactly right.
Yeah you can get bailed out, even if he's not nearly as involved like targets wise. But it's been trending in the right direction.
For I want to quickly ask you guys just on the total, A whopping fifty five and a half. I can only remember one total being higher than this this year. This is the second hight that I can remember, at least, you know, for this season. Obviously, we joke about it being the Coors Field of the NFL. Ericson do you like this game to go over fifty five and a half or is that just so high you want to take the under?
It's too high. This is exactly to your point. The other game that was higher was the last Lions game we saw, which is lines of Mikings at fifty six and a half. There's just no value on this number anymore. It's gone like these numbers should be closer fifteen and a half. That's what I have it projected to be. So I mean, yeah, it can be like it could score eighty points. Yeah, that's possible. But the Commanders last four games on the road, I've all been under, so I'm going under.
Do you think there's any value on Washington on the plus here or like this one's tough because points? Yeah, well, this has the feel of that Raven Steeler thing where you're just like, man, you know Washington is really you know, they're able to sling the ball they're able to get some quick scores, you feel like that they can keep
it within and and win. But at the same token, you know that Ravens game with the Steelers, there was this feeling of like they could also get blown out, Like I wouldn't be surprised if the over doesn't hit and the Lions still win by fifteen.
Yeah, that's kind of how I think that. This is where the Commander's season, the magic riding.
I didn't realize this line was nine and a half, by the way, like for something, thought I was a little lower than that that. Yeah, it's a big line, but I still would take Detroit honestly.
Yeah, I think that you'll probably see like a lot of public money on the Commanders because the last time we saw like, oh, Jane Daniels is so fun, like he's gonna make plays, and the.
Commanders also are not. They're not that good of a team, like like just a strictly looking at the roster, like Jane Daniels is awesome and there's a couple of pieces. I'm not saying that it's him and nobody, but they're just not that. I mean, they're a year or two away from being like a real, true contender. This is just Jane Daniels magic. That's you know, taking them as far as they've gotten. And it's a total credit to him.
It's a credit to Dan Quinn. But like the Lions, even with their injuries, are just at a different level. Like I just don't I can't imagine the Lions punt more than once maybe in this game. Like if you gave me over under one and a half punts from the Lions, I would take the under East, I would trash.
There's a Worms prediction.
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All right, guys, he got a couple of games on Sunday here Rams Eagles another very fun one. Welch, we'll start with you here. What's your prediction? All right?
We are going to go to mister motivation himself, AJ Brown. He doesn't have to pull out his book for any motivation during the game because it's going to be a good one. He's scoring a touchdown, so we're going to go into the touchdown market for AJ Brown. He scored
a touchdown on three of his last four games. He went six of seven in last in the over those last games with a touch I'm sorry, six of seven in their last matchup as far as catches to targets go, and he scored a touchdown when he went up against the Rams. He's the guy. He's the red zone target that they want. It's not always going to be fun. Johan Dotson's out there. They want to get the ball to AJ Brown. They want to be able to establish some type of a passing game, and I think this
matchup is going to be a lot tougher. That Rams defense has been playing pretty stout. I mean with what they did to Darnald. I think they're going to put this team in a position where they are going to have some early running, have to establish some of that play action, and AJ Brown is going to get involved in this game. You gonna have your sprinkles of DeVante Smith. It was nice to see Goddard get that big play. This is going to be that matchup where AJ Brown
is going to get back into it. It's going to be a big I think everything is in line and in play here receptions two yards. But for the fun side of it, I believe it's plus money, like plus one twenty five or one ten or something for AJ Brown on a touchdown. So he's scoring, Eagles are winning I'll also throw that out there. I think the Eagles are obviously going to win this game. What is a spread on is this? Was this seven and a half?
Six and a half, I think six and a half at one point right now at DraftKings at.
Six, Yeah, give me Eagles. I'm gonna I'm gonna have Eagles buy a touchdown, so we can throw that on there as a prediction as well. AJ Brown touchdown Eagles, they are going to cover the spread.
Would you rather Welsh bet first touchdown score for AJ Brown at plus eight hundred or anytime at plus one forty five?
Oh it's one forty Yeah, I mean I like anytime totally in play for that first touchdown. But like the Eagles in the ramp, like the game coming up here, Kyrien Williams scoring, you know they're going right to the running back side. You're going to have a push push I'm most said that incorrectly, or Sae Kwon Barkley if you're in short yardage, so like you can play it. I think that's totally in play for a J. Brown.
But I'm more into the anytime touchdown for that because they've got two guys in short yardage that they can play with. I tend to, like, you know, teams that I think in even like a five yard are going to want to play more play action that don't have as stout as of a run game. That's where that wide receiver feels even a little bit better. This is not the case with the Eagles on both of that. So A J. Brown anytime touchdown is more of my.
Play ericson how do you see this one?
I mean AJ Brown went over one hundred yards and scored a touchdown last time I played the Rams, so it's on. I mean we saw the Eagles second mark. I had over two hundred and fifty rushing yards the last time you played the Rams, and I think he could have had more if I'm like remembering that game correctly. So yeah, I think that the Eagles offense is going to show out here and I think they're going to get AJ Brown and his inner excellence involved in scoring touchdowns.
What's your prediction.
I'm going to go on the other side to the Rams with a underwhelming wide receiver. Cooper Cup is going to finish with under fifty receiving yards. It has not been great for Cooper Cup last six games. He has had more than three catches one time, totaling thirteen catches for one hundred and ninety yards and one touchdown. He's averaging two catches and thirty one and a half receiving
yards per game. Last time he faced the Eagles, because this is a rematch from Week eight, no excuse me, week twelve, So Cupp had eight passes or he caught eight passes on eleven targets. He got to sixty yards. He took him eleven targets to get to sixty yards. He has nineteen targets, I believe, or thirteen catches in the last six games. So he's going to have to see like fifteen targets if he wants to get to
fifty receiving yards at this point. And even in that matchup when they played the Eagles earlier this year, he was sitting on seven catch for thirty three yards until he had a twenty seven yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter. So I don't think that things are going to improve for Cooper Cup. I'm not exactly sure what the issue. I mean. I think it's just he's just lost a step. Like the injuries. Over time, you start
to build and you're not getting any younger. You know, it reminds me so much of the Michael Thomas thing where the milk doesn't unspoil. And I think you're just kind of seeing this from Cooper Cup, especially with pookinakooage is so like the number one focal point of the passing game. Cooper Cup is taking a mass step back, and I don't think it's going to change, especially against the Eagles.
So you have him under fifty yards DraftKings line is forty two and a half. Would you go under that as well? Yes, Welsh, what do you think?
Yeah?
I gave it some pretty serious thought. If there's an under to play, it's Cooper Cup. It's to me, it's like always a little bit risky because you know, you obviously know like if like that one play a ridiculous play fallback wards, you cut. But the problem with Cooper Cup in general is is if we go back to that game, they lost their offense because Tyler Higbee got hurt. Like that's the crazy that's a crazy Rams team that
we're not used to. It used to be. It's just oh, you don't have Pooka, you go to Cooper, you don't have Cooper you go to Puka. All of a sudden, they don't have the trust. Whether like you're saying, it's it's separation. They don't look towards Cooper Cup enough. Tyler Higbee being out of that offense and having that you know that center field middle line target taken away. That's not Cooper Cup anymore, and that used to be what they do. Hey, you can get a little five yard
out route, bam, Cooper Cup takes it. They don't trust that anymore. Higbee going away destroyed that offense and it was never in replacement of Cooper Cup. So I have no faith. I have no faith that I think you can still catch the ball. But he has no cornerback separation. They're single covering him, they're double covering Pooka, and you're still not seeing the ball go to Cooper Cup. Stafford doesn't trust him. The play calling is not designed in
that direction. I think something fluky could happen, but I like this under I really do well.
Also, Higbee's gonna play, so I know he got hurt in the last game, but McVeigh said, like, yeah, he's fine, he's gonna play in the divisional rounds. So I don't know. I mean, you're gonna see the four tight end rotation again from the La Rams with all four of their guys in heavy personnel and yeah, cup, Yeah, I don't know how much much's gonna be involved.
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right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. All right, guys, last game here Sunday night. I hope you've cleared your schedules. We can take about two hours on this one. Ravens Bills Game of the Weekend, one of the games of the year,
certainly in terms of the hype going into it. You know, top two MVP candidates this season, you know, first team and second team All Pro at the position amongst the quarterbacks. Just great teams, both coming off blowouts in the wild card A round. There's really not much more to say, Like, it's just an incredible, incredible matchup. It's the one everybody wanted. It's the one I'll be chewing it through my fingernails
during for three and a half hours. Welsh, what's your prediction for Ravens Bills.
It's got to be Derrick Henry. Derick Henry is walking into this game with implied DraftKings totals like one hundred and ten rushing yards. It's it's wild number, of course, so you've got heavy, heavy on the rush yards. He has had over one hundred and twenty yards in rushing in four straight games. Awesome. Anytime he has had twenty carries or more, he has gone over one hundred yards. His rushing attempt marker yesterday it may have even moved up.
I'm still okay with this. Nineteen and a half rush attempts in this game. So obviously, if they're playing from behind, that puts a little bit of a wrinkle in it. I don't think that's the case. In fact, Derrick Henry has only gone over one hundred yards without twenty carries once this season. Every other time he has gone over
one hundred it has been twenty carries. So coming back to it, they are implying he's rushing for over one hundred yards and they are giving us under twenty rush attempts, And again, it might move, it might be up by the time you guys see this at twenty. I would still go twenty point five over because you've got to get him the ball. He's scoring you touchdowns, he's establishing the offense. Their passing game has been a little bit dicey in general, and I think clock management would be
a really important thing for this matchup. And I think you want to give Derrick Henry the ball at every corner, every point of that offense. The guy should have twelve to thirteen carries by the half. So I really really love this in that betting market. So that's kind of my prediction over that twenty carry marker, which gets him
over to one hundred yards. But again, the rushing yard total is like a wild number already, So nineteen and a half over rush attempts that's my prediction for Derrick Henry.
I think the weather in this game too, is something like eight degrees. Like that's just like the most obvious, Like ram Derrick Henry into the defenders and see if they're willing to tackle him in brutally cold.
Weather, especially in the third quarter, Like did you do that in the first quarter? You do that in the second and see how great the defense is after getting smashed by Derrick Henry the entire game. And eight degree weather ridiculous. I've never even been an eight degree weather. I don't know what that's like.
Never been an eight degree weather in my whole life.
I was born in California, I live in Arizona. I'm a West Coast baby. I have never I've been in I think twenty five or twenty four degree weather. I've never been in teams or single digit or negative weather in my life.
I knew you were a West Coast guy. I am in awe of that fact, though, that is to never have experienced you ever got skiing or anything?
You know, no, never gone I've been in snow. We have snow up north here even.
I mean barely. If you've only been in the twenty degree weather.
It's yeah, I've only been in snow like a handful of times, but I've never been in a single digit degree weather.
Ericson, have you ever been in cold weather? Yes?
Constantly in cold weather right now sucks?
Is it single digits where you are right now?
Not right now?
No, But it's actually an unseasonably warm day here in Denver. It's thirty degrees right now.
Oh that's like fifty five to I'm wearing shorts right now, so wow, that's wild Ericson or the.
Thing too, was when it comes to the cold weather, it's really not even when it's the temperature outside, it's it's wind. Sure, that's what makes it actually feel cold because it can say, oh, it's like twenty eight degrees, like okay, if you go outside and there's no wind, you're like, okay, this isn't like terrible. But the minute that the wind picks up, that's when it feels like zero degrees.
And I've been in like twenty something with wind, and it's like it's the most just heart wrenching thing to experience in my life. But just idea.
I've skied up in Quebec in like negative degree weather and that was like you do that and then you come back and it's like nine degrees and you're like, this is warm compared to you know, negative twelve.
Yeah, my wife's from Wisconsin, so like she knows, I do not. I just don't have like any I can't fathom that type of cold, but I know, like relative cold to your fingers and stuff like that. All right, Well, if you guys do that, I'm gonna go ten during the game. Yeah, so I fight.
Ericson with this eight degree weather. What do you think about Derrick Henry over nineteen and a half rushing temps?
I mean, I think Welsh made the good case for it why he picked the rushing temps and not the rushing yard. So I think that that was a good way to approach it. I'm just trying to think from the Buffalo Bill's perspective. Yes, they know that they're gonna want to feed Derrick Henry, But does it matter that the Buffalo Bills know that? And this is a matchup that Derek Henry's dominated anyway, even when he wasn't on the Ravens.
Like, yeah, like one hundred and ninety I think it's like one hundred and ninety yards in their last matchup, So he dominated.
This the Sean McDermott defense when he's not even been on the Ravens before, and this is the best situation he's ever been in. So I find it the only the only hole I could find is if he just doesn't start off the game great. I know we've seen a lot of games with Derek. I mean, and I'm sure you can attest to this. Worm were in the first half, it's like like it really hasn't been working. In the second half, he just explodes Like that happens
a lot too. So as a way to a fun approach could be you bet the under on the first half and you bet the over on in the second half for Derrick Henry, which I think will be kind of cool. But yeah, I mean, they're going to establish a run with him and he's probably gonna go over one hundred and tap twenty twenty four. It's probably hit both twenty.
Four carries one hundred and ninety nine rushing yards in the last matchup against Buffalo.
Yeah, and you know, there's a lot of talk about how the Bills defense was missing a bunch of key pieces in that Week four matchups.
It didn't matter.
That's like, it's like, I think the Bills will be better prepared than they were in Week four, but I also don't know that it matters, Like the way this run.
Do you think the Bills are gonna do what the Steelers did? And they're like, all right, let Lamar run on us? Whatsoever?
I think yes, because they're gonna want him to wear down and say, oh, how many hits he's gonna want to take in the cold. And I'm not saying that's the correct strategy, but that would be my guess is to say, let's not let Derek mean Derek Henry. The first play of the game in Week four had an eighty seven years touchdown, Like they're not gonna want to see that happen again. But you know the Ravens defense
is also playing different now too. But yeah, yeah, just in terms of that particular matchup, Like, I do think the Bills will be better in this game, both better prepared and healthier, and we'll execute better, but I'm not sure it will matter when it comes to stopping Derek Henry.
Yeah, and also I threw up the last four matchups when I loosely say that two of those were against the Steelers, one was against Houston, and then you also have the Browns in here. In there here are in descending order, his rushing yards over the last four games, one hundred and eighty six, one hundred and thirty eight, one hundred and forty seven, and one hundred and sixty two one hundred and sixty two. Like I said, twenty
or more carries. Three of those four games, he went twenty four or more carries as well, So I mean, like, those are not Carolina, those are not Tampa. Like those are good is for the most part, especially Pittsburgh on the run and they are demolishing and they're establishing, and Derrick Henry's on another level. So feel pretty good.
The other thing too, which we didn't mention yet, Zay Flowers. As at the time we're recording this, it's not clear if he's going to play. And you know, last week, the Ravens, the way they talked about it made it seem like there would be, you know, much better chance of him playing this week than there was last week. But we don't have any kind of word that it's definitely happening. He probably will be limited in some capacity
even if he does play. That is just another excuse to because Mark Andrews does not have a very good career against the Bills, They've typically done a good job of limiting him. So if he's limited and nose Flowers like, why do anything other than, you know, combine for forty runs between Lamar and Derrick Henry. So, Eric Sidon, your prediction is on the Bills offense side of this one.
Yeah, I'm looking at James Cook. I think that he's going to struggle in this matchup, So I'm gonna go under his rushing yards fifty six and a half rushing yards. We're talking about the Bills run defense. How it's not necessarily great. It's a good spot for Dereck Henry. I think this is a terrible spot for the Bills running offense. Two running backs the season have surpassed fifty five and
a half rushing yards against the Baltimore Ravens. One was sake One Barkley, the other was Najie Harris, and he got to play this. He got to play the Ravens three times and he went over his rushing yards one time. So I look as the Ravens defense has improved in the second half of the year in their secondary, their run defense has been good all year long, like that
has not been one of their issues. Obviously, playing with leads helps that, but even in more back and forth games, like teams have not been able to run the ball effectively. And James Cook is the epitome of a boom er bust running back, like he has had monster games where he's gone over one hundred yards and he has games where he's like thirty. And I think this is a matchup in game script where you're not necessarily seeing Buffalo
run away. I mean they're underdogs, right, Like they're projected to lose this game, So I don't think this is a James Cook spot. So I like the under here in a really tough matchup where I don't think it's gonna be him. I mean Ty Johnson, like they love Tay Johnson like, so I know Ray Davis is also
banged up. He had a concussion last week, so I don't know if he's gonna play, but I think you might see a lot of Ty Johnson James Cook in the passing game a little bit more versus just like running up the middle against this Ravens run defense that you can't really run the ball effectively on So I'm gonna go under on James Cook.
Ty Johnson went to school where Maryland. Yes, Sarah, you a turp we else what do you think about James Cook?
Yeah, I'm into this one. I mean, it's gonna be a much tougher matchup. We know they can go away from it. If you are on the side of Baltimore, maybe being up a little bit, they're gonna be slanging the ball a bit more. Josh Allen might be taking it. I'm into this one. I don't have as good of a feel, I think as some of these others. I'm
really into a lot of those others. Cook is also, like, you know, you're a rushing touchdown leader, Like I don't think they would be afraid to try to establish some stuff with him. But to your point, like Ty Johnson's going to come into this game, Josh Allen take some
of that rushing equity away. So it would have to be kind of like this is an above board game for Cook, or they have a really established lead and they're trying to manage or establish clock, or again they're just able to run all over Baltimore, which really isn't something that happens, so I see the light on this. I'm probably not as like adamant about some of the others that Erickson's got, but I think this, I get the logic on its smart play.
I just with how good this game is. I just want to ask you guys, like, who do you think wins? Would you lay the point in a half with the Ravens? Would you take the point in a half with the Bills totals fifty one and a half? How do you see this playing out from the team perspective? Whilst you can go.
First, I'm gonna go on the side of the Ravens. I think it's a super close matchup. There's a part of me that I kind of want to lay the over. It's just again, it's a big number. If I were to play aside, if it was total or spread, I probably would go on on Baltimore minus one and a half over playing the over or under.
Yeah, I mean, it's really fascinating to me that this game started with Bills as small favorites and almost immediately flipped to the Ravens being being you know, early favorites. It's still Wednesday, you know, as of the day we're recording this, so we'll see kind of where that shakes out by the end of the week. But that very quick switch kind of stood out to me ericson how do you see this one play out?
I agree, I like the Ravens. I think that I would just I was betting this game, I probably bet the Ravens bunny line and not sweat Oh my god, they only won by one point Like that just sounds like a terrible way to enjoy this game, Like the Ravens are winning and then they win and then oh wait, they didn't win by one and a half points, and then you just feel like an idiot. So I think I would just pay a little bit more for the money line play. And I really like the over bills.
Games at home have gone over and we know the Ravens have been an over machine this year, and so I would like the game too. I mean, that's another way to enjoy this game from the fun aspect, Right, you don't sweat the side, you just bet. Oh, I'm gonna bet on the two guys that are one of them is gonna win MVP, Like this should be a fun game to watch. T White Sunday Night and there's gonna be points. So I like the over, but Ravens money line for me taking the bills.
I refuse to curse my team by giving us a quick clean sweep of picking them, so I will pick the bills.
He's wearing a Ravens shirt. I want to play a Baltimore Rason.
You can take the bills against the spread.
Yeah, I'll take the bills to cover Ravens to it.
I actually think it's bad luck because I think I think the world knows what you're trying to do, and I think that's worse luck that you're doing that. I'm just gonna point that out. I think it's bad luck that you're doing that at wearing a purple Baltimore raven shirt.
I actually very like, in all seriousness, I am like very legitimately, like I mean, I would just flip a coin, honestly, like I could see either. And the interesting thing too, is when you look at a lot of games and you're like, well, I think if this team wins, is going to be close, but if this other team wins, is gonna be blow out. Like I could see literally
anything playout. I could see either team winning close. I could see either team winning in a blowout, like it would not shock me any result in this game, which is one of the reasons why it's so exciting. And all the other games this week are like I think every game is a six point spread or bigger. This one is just a point and a half. Like there's a reason it's it's the game of the week. I'm not one of these people who thinks like Lamar can't
play in the postseason. I think that narrative is completely over blown and I could throw out a thousand stats why I think that's amazing, but amazing he was amazing last week. And also like, like I mean, Alan has always been really good in the playoffs, even though it's largely against seven seeds. I don't know. This is just a really fun game.
Let me ask you this question. I haven't been on. I hand you five hundred dollars, and I say, go and put this on Buffalo plus one and a half or Baltimore minus one and a half. What are you doing?
I think? And if you'd like to give me the five hundred dollars, I will accept. I think I think I would probably put it on the Ravens.
Oh my gosh, I'm so shocked. I'm so shocked. I actually, of course it is. Don't lie.
It's okay.
We can sweep. I know, I agree, it can go any direction. That's why this is going to be like the best game of the weekends. Can be so fun.
But come on, I mean, the difference the difference to me, and we can get off this game. I was actually joking when I said, we go super long on this, and we kind of have naturally, but we'll wrap up in a second. I to me, the difference of the game is like both offenses are great in pretty much every way, Like quarterbacks are playing an elite level, great run games, Like both offensive lines are playing well, like the assuming Zay is okay, this is like just there's
no knock against either offense. And the Ravens defense has been playing better the second half of the season, like particularly that they have the running defense that the Bills don't like. That to me is like the difference. But the Bills are at home, so maybe that cancels it out. I don't know. If this game was in Baltimore, I would like I don't know what the line would be, but I whatever it is, i'd be laying the points with probably.
Three point five. The fact that it's minus three point five.
The fact that it's in Buffalo is like enough of a hesitation for me. But yeah, really fun. I mean, I'm really excited for this one regardless.
Do you think lasting on it. Do you think that the Ravens can win if they have to play from behind? Yes, like if they fall down, you think they can so in Zay Flowers don't play, They're done fourteen nothing.
It's Day's not playing that. I would feel worse about saying they can play from behind, but in a vacuum, like excluding the conversation about injuries. Yes, I don't think there's anything to the idea of like the Ravens have to be ahead so they can lean on Henry and that's the only way to win. Like Lamar, I mean again with Lamar was a better passer than Josh Allen
this season. Now you could say he had, you know, more help from the receivers or whatever, but like this, he was better just strifically looking at the passing alone in terms of the advanced that's then Josh Allen this, he's they were both amazing. That's not I'm knock going to Allen. But like it's not like, oh, if Lamar's would drop back and pass, he can't do it, Like absolutely they can.
If Lamar is down by double digit points at any point, I'm live betting his over rushing yard.
Are you gonna take the five hundred dollars and then put it on the see That's what where I'm actually waiting for him, is he's gonna win. For them to fall down fourteen nothing and that you.
Know what I would split it up. I would split I would go half of that on Baltimore and whatever the plus money is, and then I would take Lamar Jackson rushing live rushing yards, whatever the number is. If he's down by two touchdowns and I'm hitting that.
Yeah, I mean if they're down like twenty eight to ten at halftime, like I'm not an idiot, Like I'm not gonna go bet on the Ravens. But if it's like a ten point deficit, twelve point deficit, even fourteen, like I don't think that's something they can't do. The Kimmy at all really excited for that one. We went a lot longer than we expect show. Yeah, I hope everybody you know can take away some some bets that
they can win from our predictions this week. Hopefully we have as good a week as we did last week for Ericson and Welsh. I'm Ryan warmly thanks everybody for tuning in and we'll see again next week. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best free way to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at
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