Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I've Ryan Warmley, joined by Derek Brown and by Pat Fitts Morris. Guys, we're talking fantasy takeaways for the AFC South today. We'll start right at the top. Not the most impressive division in the in the NFL, they were led by Houston Texans ten and seven. They got the four seed in the playoffs. Fits, what was your fantasy takeaway for Houston?
It was that CJ.
Stroud was completely undermined by terrible offensive line play and will bounce back in twenty twenty five.
So yeah, don't give up in CJ. Stroud.
He burned a lot of people pretty badly. There were people drafting him as a top five quarterback this year because he was coming off such a good rookie season and the pass catching weapon rely looked spectacular. With Nicocollins, Tank Dell both guys fully healthy, and then Stefan Diggs added to the mix. People were really legitimately and justifiably
excited about that. While those three receivers missed it combined seventeen games this season due to injury, but really the much bigger problem for Stroud was the play of the offensive line. The Texans gave up fifty four sacks, tied for the third most in the league, and they allowed pressure on twenty six point nine percent of CJ. Stroud's dropbacks. That was the highest pressure rate allowed in the NFL
this year. I have no doubt that the Texans are going to prioritize offensive line in the offseason.
They really have to.
Their defense is good and it doesn't have many glaring holes. They can focus on that, and they have to protect their franchise quarterback. Stroud is still one of the most promising young passers in the leagues who do not give up on him based on his disappointing sophomore campaign.
Where do you think you're going to have him ranked?
Fits, I'm gonna have him ranked about QB twelve.
Where is he ranked for you right now in Dynasty?
Oh?
Man, I think he's still He's still top ten. I want to say he's like QB nine or something like that.
Yeah, he's a really interesting one, I think for Dynasty purposes, just because, like you know, you don't get that rushing floor.
But also he's young. We've seen the ceiling.
Like, I'm a believer in him as a player, and so there's like a comfort level of what you would think you would get from him for the next you know, twelve fifteen years in dynasty. I think he's an interesting conversation on that side of things.
You know, Deebro.
When you look at Stroud what he did this past season. In the pie chart of blame for the disappointment of the Texans offense, what percentage is Stroud? Because I don't think it's zero, even if it is more significantly offensive line than him.
I think it's fifty to fifty. I think the offensive line, all right, I'll say I'll put it this way. I'm actually gonnap it up in three different directions. It's forty percent C. J. Stroud, It's forty percent the offensive line, and it's twenty percent the pass catchers. I think looking at how Stroud played throughout the season, it got progressively
worse as the offensive line got worse. I think that there's also context and nuance that we need to understand with the offensive With the offensive pass catchers like Nico Collins missed a substantial amount of time. Losing your alpha wide receiver hurts. Tank Dell was not tanked. Dell for most of the season, and then when we got tanked, Dell being tanked del c J. Stroud was playing bad football,
Stefan Diggs losing him halfway through the season hurt. So I think you add all of this stuff, and you compound the offensive line stuff on top of that, it made for a really challenging season, a very disappointing season. But I'm firmly in the camp of both y'all, like c J. Stroud is my QB ten in Dynasty. Still believer in the talent, still believer that he can right the ship, and that Houston could write the ship this offseason.
Do do you guys know what kind of salary cap space they have? I haven't kind of dived into that for every single else look a yet I'm wondering if they're limited in their available space, if they are picking and choosing between adding a weapon versus adding, you know, to the offensive line, Like the offensive line is like such a glaring, you know, disaster that like they really do need to add there.
But I mean I would like to see them.
I mean, I know what Dell's gonna look like next year, Like obviously, like I don't really expect, you know, digs to be there. It's like Nico and not a whole lot to your point, de Bro, And I'm not sure how they address both that and the O line.
Eighth fewest, eighth lowest amount of cap leftover? Now, can you get creative with the contracts? Can you change some of the cap hits for some of these players and stuff like that? I think you can. It just depends on where do you want to cut and things like that, Like you know, they've got some. I mean the big thing about this is their offensive line played terribly. They are super expensive, like we're talking about, but.
Dave invested in it.
Just yeah, I mean, what the problem is is the interior is the biggest problem. In the health is the biggest problem. Like between their two bookend tackles you're talking about, they take up fifty one million dollars in their cap next year. So if they can get guys that could be healthy and as well as play better, especially on the interior, that's where they need to fortify it and
just hope for better health. Yeah, and and mean, I actually they're gonna have to add some guys probably in the draft as far as skill players because Johnson on a cheap contract, and.
It's like you obviously like you're probably gonna get nothing from Tank Dell next year.
Again, like I don't expect Digs.
To be back, Like it is a real need at both spots, and there's only so much capital between salary cap space and draft capital that they have to go around. So, I mean, Fitz, do you have kind of like a preferred approach you'd like to see them take to you know, get CJ.
Stroud back to his former glory.
Yeah, they're gonna have to sign like some maybe cheap, affordable veterans and free agency and the offensive line to patch up that interior, and that's mainly it.
I mean they were getting like a gap to death at times this year.
So yeah, I'd like to see them maybe like sign a veteran guard and like kind of maybe take the Green Bay Packers approach and sort of wait out the early days of free agency and wait until the prices
come down a little bit. And yeah, then they are going to have to maybe draft at least one offensive lineman and they are gonna have to draft a wide receiver because they're about a year away from having to drive the Brinks truck up to Nico Collins House and give him a massive contract extension, and so you know they kind of need something else there too, and they're gonna need someone on a cheap rookie contract, So look for them to probably take a receiver in the first two days of the draft.
I mean, I'm looking at the contract structures for twenty twenty five, Like, the only guy I could see them maybe cutting and getting some salary cap or leaf because a lot of their guys like high cap hits high dead cap. If you got rid of anybody, Denico Autry is the only guy that I could see, like, you move on from him. You got about six million in
wiggle room. But it's still like it's not like you've got a lot of blowd to contracts so you can reach They're gonna have to get creative and restructure and really hit in the draft.
When did Nico signed what like a three year deal?
Right?
Was that? Did that start this year or was that starting next year?
Well, would Nico still be on his rookie deal.
He signed, didn't he?
Heal? Yeah, he resigned an extension.
Oh my bad, my bad.
Yeah, yeah, he signed that earlier in the spring. Yeah, so he's got a couple of years.
Not that it's cheap years, because you know, not a rookie deal.
I totally forgot about the contract extension. So yeah, then.
They're actually looks like you're kind of a steal, you know, for.
Them, it does, but they are still going to draft some like I don't know if they bother hanging.
How do think it changes your point I think you're I think you're still correct there, dee bro.
Let's go to the Colts. They went eating nine this year.
Obviously a really unique situation with the quarterback just in terms of, you know, some injury stuff getting benched, you know, for the backup was Joe Flacco.
What was your takeaway from this season for the Colts.
I could go on long rans about Shane Stikeen and Chris Ballard and Anthony Richards and all this type of stuff. I'm actually going to pivot away from that, and I want to highlight a bright spot for the Colts. There's not many that Josh Downs was the sophomore breakout candidate that I don't think we talked about enough in draft season. He had quietly a fantastic season. Like looking back, I looked back to some preseason ADP wide receiver sixty four
on FFPC and ADP. We're talking about a guy that was wide receiver thirty two and fantasy points per game. You look at all of the efficiency metrics, and this guy was producing as a wide receiver too, like he was seventeenth in target share, twentieth in yards per route run, thirteenth in first downs per route run. So the quarterback play obviously moving forward is a big concern. But I think based off of talent, we need to be investing
in Josh Downs in twenty twenty five. And I don't want it to get lost in the sauce of how good of a season he had in his second year and the correlation of yes, you still need to invest in second year really talented wide receivers.
What do you think about this one fits?
I just really struggle to go into next season saying I'm excited to invest in anybody in this passing game, even if I like the players, which I do like a.
Number of these talents.
I just feel like I'm getting close to the point where in terms of how he can support pass catches nine in terms of what he can do for fantasy, but in terms of how he can support his pass catchers for fantasy, I need to see it to believe it.
For me, Anthony Richardson, Yeah, that's part of it.
I mean, I like Anthony Richardson, but I like him mostly for his running ability. And you know, he's not going to become an above average NFL passer overnight and might never even get to average in his career. Like it's the rushing that floats his value in not only fantasy, but maybe in the real game too.
Downs is good, like, he is very good.
I'm just not that into the guys who fall into the tiny slot receiver archetype. And granted I think Josh Allen is sort of at the head of the class in that category, but I just think the ceiling is generally a little limited for those guys, Like I don't think Downs has twelve hundred yard ten touchdown potential, Like I just don't think he's that kind of a player.
But then again, like you know, there are may be only twenty five or thirty guys in the league who do of that sort of potential, So like, I will probably draft Josh Downs in at least one league for fear of missing out, because I do think He's really good, but I'm probably not going to be heavily invested in Josh down sixt year.
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provide the most value. Our betting systems allow you to create and back test custom strategies that help you find value and maximize your bank roll. Take the guesswork out of betting. Download the Betting Pros app, use code FP free and start winning today. Debro, what is your takeaway for the Jacksonville Jaguars who at four and thirteen?
We need to continue to invest in Roki wide receivers heavily every single year, and I know that we could point who instances and I want to be very clear about this. When we were talking about Brian Thomas Junior in the draft season. It was a congested passing attack
and basically everybody else around him got injured. I don't want that to take away from his rookie season, but I do want to sit here and belabor the point of we need to invest in talented rookie wide receivers, even if they are in what appear to be congested wide receiver or target totem poles like Look, we have instances of this not working out. We talk about Roma Dunes that we can talk about Jackson spent and Jigba.
We can also talk about Brian Thomas Junior, who is the wide receiver twelve and fantasy points per game weeks one, three, seventeen. We can also talk about previous years, Rashie Rice. We can also talk about lad McConkey this year. So looking at all of these wide receivers, I think my biggest takeaway every single year and going again rolling it back into twenty twenty five, is talented rookie wide receivers. Invest them.
Invest in them because things happen. Injuries happened throughout the season, but the cream rise at the top. Talented players are in targets and they can carry you down the stretch to fantasy championships.
When was the last year that we didn't have a real league winner who took off in November December who wasn't like that, There was no rookieide receiver that did that and go back every you know, like you said Rashi Rise, I'm not Saint Brown a few years ago. Like it is like clockwork that every year there is a receiver who absolutely explodes, who really elevates their usage, who elevates their game in the second half of the year.
And I mean some of these guys are good all year long, right Like obviously like Lake Neighbors when he was healthy, was strong right off the bat. But like it is every year that you see rookie wide receivers take off in the second half. It is like one of the most universal like cheat codes of fantasy is just investing in these guys. And not all of them are going to hit, but if you invest in them pretty heavily, like one or.
Two of them are, and they're going to be real difference makers.
I wonder if do you think we'll get to a point where it feels like everybody there's a lot of people in the industry and who like kind of talk about this for a living, talk about rookie wide receivers, and yet in the drafts that I do that aren't industry leagues. In drafts that I do in any kind of home league or with friends, they still are. The ADP is not reflective of that. And maybe that has to do with the platform you play on. Maybe they
has to do with a bunch of different things. But every year the ADP is artificially suppressed just because we haven't seen it before, and every year you get great return on investment, and seems like at least a few of those guys. Do you think we're going to see a point where rookie wide receivers do start creeping up in more casual drafts year in a year out because it's just been such a consistent thing.
I think we will, but maybe not fully because I think the same thing happens with rookie running backs too, and I think rookie running backs have always been a pretty good value for fantasy and continue to be so.
Like people are just scared of.
The unknown, you know, they don't want to invest substantial fantasy drafts capital, and guys they have not seen do anything at the NFL level yet, And that's kind of the funniest things about Like, I've played fantasy football for a long time, where you know, I'm old. I was playing when like Hya Tittle was a he was I think my first fantasy quarterback, Hya Tittle. But no, that has been maybe the biggest piece of evolution I've seen
in the fantasy game since I started playing. That, Like, rookie wide receivers used to be considered a sucker play for fantasy because they so rarely produced in year one, and that has changed dramatically, and like especially I think the last ten to eleven years, where these guys hit the ground running now and the people who have been slow to get on that bandwagon have missed out on some really good values. And Brian Thomas is a great example.
Melik Neighbors. I mean, look at what Melik Neighbors did this year with a awful quarterback situation. And granted, like this was a super wide receiver class, and next year's class is going to be a little bit more muddled and not as many like A level prospects, but we know there are gonna be some guys who hit from next year's rookie class and we just have to dig and you know, pan for gold and figure out who those guys are going to be.
Why tital In sixty three? Baby, he was a beast. It's a absolute beat.
I think to your point on the running backs, two fits, like I think at the top you at least anecdotally like I feel like I do see the elite first round running backs go early. Like I can remember, like you know, several years ago, guy like Trent Richardson, like as a rookie was being drafted very highly, Clyde Edwards Delaier going in the first round. People oh, you know running back.
For the Chiefs.
Like you see it more with the running backs, a willingness for the high level guys that go good to Like I think Asha Genty, like if he goes to the right spot, will go in some first rounds. I dont think it'll be a consensus first round guy, but I think people out there who want to take him there like that just based on history and what I feel like I see from the leagues I play and
at running back at receiver, it's it's more rare. Like a guy like Malik Nighbors was a top six pick, and he was still well like a fourth rounder this year, maybe late third round in a lot of places, Like at the top, I think there's a real difference between the guys that we view as elite receiver prospects and elite running back prospects in their first year draft ADP.
Yeah.
True, I think people do get attracted to the first round running backs, but now they're always good running backs to be had on Day two and even Day three for sure. So I might not be above consensus on Ashton genty this year, but I will be above consensus on guys like Omarion Hampton and Trayvon Henderson this year, guys who are likely to be Day two draft picks.
Yeah. I think it comes down to the situations that maybe aren't as clean, because I'm let's all be kind of rewind to does everybody remember how ticked off people were like in the first two to three weeks of Jumior Gibbs's rookie season two. But they're like, ah see, I burn a draft pick.
He's not doing anything.
In all this other kind of situations. So you know, I think being willing to invest in some of the unknown and make bets on talent. People need to be more willing to do that.
Just quickly on Brian Thomas Junior, because he was kind of the impetus for this conversation, Deebro, Brian Thomsenior will be ranked wear for you overall, not amongst receivers, into the twenty five.
I mean he's top twenty four. He's not gonna he's not gonna fall outside the Oh.
I think I think that's too low. I think I think you're looking more like top fifteen, Like, I.
Mean, that's that's likely. I mean, I'm just saying, like at the basement of that now, I mean, will he go top fifteen, will he go first round in a lot of different drafts. Yeah, I totally understand that. Am I gonna have him quite that high?
I don't know.
We'll see.
Fit's what about you.
In leagues where you are only required to start two wide receivers, I'm gonna have him ranked probably in the late teens. In leagues where you have to start three receivers, I've got Brian Thomas ranked tenth.
Let's go to the Tennessee Titans three or fourteen. I want to spend less time on the Titans than any other team in this entire division takeaway series fits.
What was your takeaway from the Titans this year?
I can oblige your desire that end worm.
Yeah, so the Titans were a fantasy sinkhole in twenty twenty four and there's not.
Much hope for a better result in twenty twenty five.
They sort of luck their way into the number one pick in the draft with a messy Week eighteen.
But were they really lucky? That is the question.
Because the Titans are now going to feel compelled to take a quarterback. They have drawn the conclusion obviously that will Levis is not the future of the organization. The problem is that this is not an exciting quarterback class like the class of twenty twenty four was. There is no Jade and Daniels in this class. There is no Drake May in this class. There's not even a Caleb
Williams or a Bo Nicks in this draft class. The top guys look like Shador Sanders and Cam and I don't think either one of those guys is ready for prime time. If the Titans draft one of those guys and throw them into the fire right away, it is going to be ugly. So look I'll never say never on good players. I might hate the situation, but at the right price, I am willing to draft good players if you give them to me at a big enough discount.
But you would have to give me a pretty substantial discount next year for me to want a draft Tony Pollard or Calvin Ridley in fantasy.
And those are the best names, right, Like there's not even any like maybe you like want to squitt in your eyes and make a case for Chigakonquo, Like I just like, I don't know where.
We've done that before. We've done that before, We've already felt that pain. Let's not do it again.
Yeah, I mean it's it's like, what round do you think the first Titan is going to go in next year?
I mean, Pollard's probably gonna be like a third rounder.
Yeah, I think he goes in the third or fourth, I think, really.
Yeah, Yeah, It's it's, uh, do you have a preferred quarterback for them?
Fits like between Sanders and Ward?
Oh man, Like I've gone back and forth on Sanders and Ward, like both guys hold onto the ball way too long. I think that's like the biggest issue with both of them. But maybe I might actually like Sanders a little more because he kind of has the mobility to.
I don't know. It's hard to say. Man. I got to do more.
I got to do a little more film watching on both guys, even though I did watch a fairly good amount of Colorado and Miami games this year. But I don't know, man, And I also need to hear what some other smart people say about it.
So I think if I'm Tennessee, you've got the ninth most cap space, I think you go sign Sam Darnold, you make his his cap hit kind of low in this year next year, and then you go trade back from the number one pick and load up my trade down from number one to number two or number three, Let somebody come up for a quarterback, and then just take Travis Hunter.
I like that.
That's what I would do. But you know, whenever, I mean they got a GM opening, I'll throw my name in that.
Yeah, man, yeah, yeah.
Just quickly, Debrod, was there any real takeaway that you might have had here and other than what fits had?
I mean, there's really just not much.
I mean, I think the only thing that stands out to me is Tony Pollard was a lot better this year than people want to give him credit for. He was absolutely fantastic based off of the situation around him, his tackle breaking metrics, bounce back, he was a workhorse in a lot of weeks of freaking bellco man. So I think Pollard as a player that I will be back in on for next year depending on it, based
off of what he did. If we can get a better offensive situation somewhat around him, like if Darnold is there and they add another pass catcher in the off season and stuff like that, defense is better, I could see a big reason, like core Tony Pollard can outplay his ADP. But Ridley, no, do I want any other pass catchers? Am I going to do the chig dance again? Hell no?
Yeah?
Pollard through Week seventeen was RB twenty one on the season and a half VPR.
That's like right around where I had I was.
And that's like scoring no touchdowns too, dude, man, Like can he score like eight or nine touchdowns? Like had like a decent season, You're talking about a top fifteen back.
I don't know how would say I'm going to be in going back to that well, but he was. He was definitely had a better season than he was being drafted at this year, and I was on board with that. I was happy to see that. All right, We'll get out of here on that again. We're doing all the kind of division takeaways here as there own episode, so please be sure whichever one's you've seen already, or if this is your first, go check out all the others for Debro and fits, I'm Ryan warmly thanks.
For tuning in. We'll see again next time.
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