Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined by Pat Fitzmorris and by Derek Brown. Today we are talking some fantasy takeaways for the AFC West. This is part of our divisional takeaway series. We've got an episode for all eight divisions, so be sure to check those out if they're all out already by the time you're watching this, or keep an eye out for
the ones to come in the future. Today's is the AFC West, like I mentioned, of course, led by the Kansas City Chiefs once again, fifteen into the one seed in the af Seed. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes just you know, leading the charge and you read all the same stuff we've seen for several years in a row now it just continues to play out time and time again. For Casey Debro, what was your fantasy takeaway for the Chiefs in twenty twenty.
Four that Patrick Mahomes of this part of his career is a better real life quarterback than he is a fantasy one. The days are gone where I can get him into my top five, my top seven, heck my top ten. Right now he's gonna be a low MQB one probably eleven or twelve spot my twenty twenty five rankings, and that's where he's been the last two years. Guys like QB ten, QB eleven and fantasy points per game.
And when we look in you know, the future for Patrick Mahomes in twenty twenty five, the Rashi Rice return from injury and possible suspension. You got Exavier Worthy, is Hopkins, there is Brown there, Kelsey's a year older. It's nothing but murky Man. I can't get excited about Patrick Mahomes in the year twenty twenty five. I just think it's where we're.
At as it stands. I feel like I would be surprised if Kelsey comes back. And regardless of whether or not they win the Super Bowl, Like, I don't think it they have to win for him to retire.
Do you think if they win, do you think he's definitely out, because I.
Think it's more likely if they win.
But I don't think it's winning he retires losing he comes back, Like I think they've wanted to go for this three peat and they're giving it their best effort. And regardless this is based on zero inside information. By the way, this is just kind of like my attempt at reading the tea leaves where I just personally, on an individual basis, I would be surprised if you so to.
That point where I think you are spot on with this. I just want to add this really really quickly. If you look at his contract, and this is the reason why I'm absolutely with you. Next year, he has a nineteen million dollar cap hit if it were to condemn or he retires, they are only on the hook for
two point two million in dead cap. Like It's basically they re signed him and gave him this deal, and it's like, well, you want to come back, but if if you don't, we're not screwed if you don't come back.
Yeah, And I don't think they would cut him.
No, no, no, no, I don't know.
That's that's not what you no no yeah yeah.
I So, having said that, let's just say for the sake of argument that we're right. I mean, how are you going to feel going into next season? Late? Like like what you just said, she rice big question mark. Davey Worthy came on kind of strong late, but still a lot of work to do, a lot of question marks elsewhere are fits? What do you make just before you even get into Mahomes, you know, in general as
a fantasy core, specifically these weapons. I mean that's a bottom what group in the NFL next season if Kelsey's not back.
Yeah, I mean they're probably bottom ten. Like they're gonna have to add They've got Rashie Rice and Xavier Worthy, And it's almost kind of a redundant skill set because Worthy, for all his speed, is not really a lidlifter. He is a catch and run guy much like Rashee Rice. So they do need a guy who can sort of
work downfield and be the lidlifter in this offense. But yeah, and just to Debro's point, it's weird that we have seen this disconnect develop with Patrick Mahomes, where he is on the short list of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, probably already, and yet since about midway through the twenty twenty three season, has not been that good of fantasy quarterback. And it's just strange. In his first five seasons as a starter, Mahomes averaged thirty eight touchdown passes a season.
Over the last two twenty seven and twenty six, Like he's not throwing as many touchdown passes that the yardage like he used to have these spike yardage games all the time. Three forty three seventy over four hundred not really happening that much anymore. So, you know, when I was putting together twenty twenty five rankings, like he's clearly behind Josh Allen Lamar Jackson, I think he's clearly behind Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels and Jalen Hurts. So like
I've got him at Quarterbacks six. I just like they're no real I mean, I've got him at six and Baker Mayfield at seven, and it's kind of only because there's really no one I feel strongly about moving past Mahomes, but QB six does almost feel too high for him.
I was gonna ask you Drake may or Patrick Mahomes next year, FITZI.
Yeah, I mean, I've got Mahomes ranked higher, de Bro, but.
I think you have to rank Mahomes higher, But I do. I could see the case being made of like where they're going to go in drafts.
I'd rather have him a the thing.
I mean, I've got him QB six, but I probably am not going to be drafting him because at the point where he is drafted, I'm just not really willing to sacrifice running back or wide receiver talent.
Fifty how many I think.
I was just gonna say, I think it'd be interesting Burrow versus Mahomes. If Higgins leaves and they don't get a great replacement for Tea, and if Mahomes adds somebody, it doesn't have to be like some elite receiver. But if if they have you know, let's say Kelsey comes back, and they get you know, like a DeAndre Hopkins type, so not adding to it, but is similar to what they have now, but Burrow loses Tea, then I could see the case of maybe those two being an interesting head to head.
Fitzy, real fast, off the top of your head, how many three hundred yard passing days the Patrick Mahomes have this year?
Two?
Three? Very close, sir, But it's not a lot. Takeaway is not good? Not a lot?
Well, let me just quickly ask this in Dynasty, is the fact that Mahomes is the consensus just best quarterback in football and you know, basically already like one of the best three of all time? Is that enough of a floor just knowing how good he is at the position to keep him somewhat relevant in Dynasty or do you think he's also maybe on the outside looking in of you know, the top twelve quarterbacks in Dynasty deepro.
I think by this way, if I'm doing startups, I'm not paying the iron price for Patrick Mahomes. Not just not. There's no way. There's too many quarterbacks that can now produce him in fantasy now from a floor perspective and talent perspective, I mean, shoot, man, I'm looking at my Dinosaur ranks right now and I'm like, I've got Patrick Wongs.
Our staff rankings from the end of December have him as QB five in Dynasty. And it's a weird kind of disconnected in my mind to hear you say like, oh, he's like QB ten or eleven for next season, but long term, we like him better even though he's like getting close to thirty. It's just you don't hear that a lot of a player that you like better and dine then the immediate future when they're not super super young.
I mean, I'm staring at my ranks right now and I'm like, Okay, I had him at QB six, and as we're talking through this, I'm like, well, I need to move him down, and I'm like, Okay, QB nine feels about right. Do I want Patrick Malmes or do I want c J. Stroud? I might take c J. Stroud.
That's also a very weird stretch of the Dynasty QB rankings right now is once you get past Alan Lamar Jayden Daniels. You know, depending on how how interested you are in a non running guy Joe Burrow like that, like six ish to thirteen ish range, I think there's it's gonna be very malleable the next year or two. Guys like Drake may possibly moving up, you know, Guys like you know, if Love has another somewhat, if he sees his Stroud, they can't get the offensive line right.
If Mahomes doesn't, you know, start learning for touchdowns again. Like, I think there's gonna be a lot of movement in that range for sure. What are your thoughts in Dynasty fits.
Yeah, I mean I think he's about the same for me in Dynasty, Like QB six, it's just interesting. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that we see the Patrick Mahomes of the prolific weekly stat lines come back at some point. And maybe this is because the Chiefs defense has been so good. This is one of the better defenses in the league. And if that defense were to go to seed and all of a sudden the Chiefs started to play in more shootouts, I don't know, maybe we see them.
They showed some weakness earlier this year, Fitzie, like when McDuffie was having an issue, Like after Watson went down, they had a stretch where they were getting all through the air and it didn't like it.
I think it helped him a.
Little bit, like low end QB one numbers, but it didn't pop back to top five numbers.
I yeah, I mean we can move on from this too, just talking about like the defense being good. We're in the stage right now of hearing which coordinators are getting, you know, interviews for head coaching jobs, and once again, like I'm not seeing spags anymore. Please please, somebody take him away from Casey. I'm tired of Mahomes also having the best defensive coordinator in football.
So one, all right, let's go to the Chargers.
Eleven and six made the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh's first season with the team.
Fits. What's your fantasy takeaway here?
It is that Greg Roman has time traveled back from the Stone Age and has joined the twenty first century. And it's now safe to investing Chargers components of the Chargers passing game. And this is a surprise. The Chargers weren't insanely run heavy with Roman as the offensive coordinator this year. And you know, traditionally Roman's offenses have been extremely run heavy, as you well know worm from being a Ravens fan, So the Chargers actually did begin the
season extremely run heavy. Justin Herbert averaged twenty two point eight pass a ten so for his first four games, and I think observers were kind of rolling their eyes, like, oh man, this guy is going to ruin Justin Herbert as a fantasy asset. But since then, Herbert has averaged thirty one point eight pass attempts a game. He has thrown more than thirty passes in each of his last five games. To end the regular season, the Chargers were only the tenth run heaviest team in the league despite
that run heavy start. So yeah, the takeaway for me is that Greg Roman is not a reason to shy away from Justin Herbert, Lad McConkie, even Quinton Johnston next season. Now there may be other reasons to shy away from Quinton Johnston, but maybe not because the Chargers are overly run heavy.
Yep.
Do you think on the reverse side of this fits you're also feeling the same way where you're maybe less interested in investing in the running game than you would have been when you first heard that Greg Roman was going to be their offensive coordinator, or if I mean, obviously the backfield is going to be a large determinant of how interested we are in investing in this backfield,
who the players are. But just strictly from the playcong perspective, are you a little less interested in the idea of like, oh, there's gonna run a ton of whoever RB one is we want to buy?
Not necessarily, because I do think you know, if you're a running back into Greg roman offense and you're getting playing time, like you're gonna get a n ample supply of carries. And I don't think workload was ever a complaint for anyone who invested in JK. Dobbins this year. The issue was more that we didn't know that it was kind of a murky backfield this year, and we
didn't know that JK. Dobbins was going to take it over so completely, so I guess not really Like I never figured that Gus Edwards was going to be a twenty carry per game guy this year, but then again, who knows. I mean, if the Chargers were to go out and somehow land Ashton Genty, I'm definitely not shying away from Ashton Genty with Greg Roman as his offensive coordinator.
Dee bro let me tie the last two conversations together for next season. Only would you rather have in fantasy Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahock Hebert?
It's not close. I've got Herbert ranked as a QB one and Patrick Mahomes I'm deciding whether he's gonna be a QB one or a QB two. It's easily Herbert. And to Fitzi's point, since Week seven, Chargers of the sixth have the sixth highest pass rate over expectation. The only teams higher than them the Bengals, the Chiefs, the Vikings, and the Jets and the Dolphins.
That's it.
Wow.
What about the same question I asked fits in terms of the running back position deeper? Do you feel the same way that he does.
I'm still inclined because I think I don't know if the Chargers end up bringing JK back or they draft somebody or sign somebody, But like, I think this is a team that has shown they're gonna run through one running back, So even if they're gonna throw more, and we didn't even see Dobbins that much in the passing game, so they're gonna throw more and they get a back that is better because Dobbins is never That's never been
his calling card as a receiver. If you were to tell me tying this to another AFC team, who as a running back that's gonna make free agency, probably not gonna need a huge contract, how would you feel about Jalen Warren as a future of Los Angeles Charger. I'd feel pretty good about it.
Still, invest I wonder if they had a real pass catching running back option, what this Chargers offense was saying with that ability, because we've seen Justin Herbert check down in the past to Austin Ekler a bunch and take advantage of that. But we've seen Greg Roman offenses not do that. So I wonder what it would look like, whether it's they add Jalen Warren or like I don't know, like within the division, like a Javonte Williams or not,
or if they draft somebody. But even if it's not gent, even if they draft somebody like Day two or three, like a Nick Singleton, like, I wonder kind of how they would take advantage.
Yeah, And to your point about Romans offense, I mean, if you think about the skill time, the skill set of the quarterbacks he's had, Lamar's running, he ain't checking it down. Kaepernick before him, it wasn't running. Gore wasn't a prolific pass catcher. So I think a lot of that is also skill sets of the quarterbacks and the running backs that they've had He's had before.
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Subscribe and click the bell to turn on notifications and make sure you don't miss it. All Right, it's your takeaway for the ten and seven Denver Broncos.
The Marvin Mimmes is an electric playmaker who fantasy managers should be targeting in twenty twenty five drafts. Mims has had a heck of a finish to the regular season, five touchdowns over his last five games, with a pair of one hundred yard receiving games over that stretch. This dude is so exciting. He is averaging ten point four yards per target over his first two years in the league. He's got sub four to four speed, He's elusive, has really good ball skills, which we saw in that spectacular
end of regulation catch a couple weeks ago. The thing is, Mims did not play fifty percent of the Broncos offensive snaps in any game this season. His high water mark in any contest was a forty seven percent snap share, and that happened in two consecutive games late in the year when Mims was just completely kicking butt. He only
reached thirty offensive snaps in one game this year. But the thing is, when Mims is in the game, Sean Payton is very proactive about trying to get him the ball, and that sort of makes up for the lower snap shares. I kind of faded Jaden Reid and drafts this year because I was worried that his snaphairs were like consistently
around sixty five or seventy percent in twenty twenty three. Now, fading Reid turned out to not be the wrong move this year, but the analysis was bad on my part because when Jayden Reid was in the game last year and when he was having a really good twenty twenty three season, the Packers were actively getting him the ball, kind of like what we're seeing with Marvin Mims. So you know, like when Reid is at his best, he's gotten the ball on a high percentage of his snaps,
And yeah, same thing with Marvin Mimms. So we just need to get Mims to the point where Reid was, uh, where he's getting like sixty five percent seventy percent of the snaps instead of forty percent. But yeah, I think if he does get sixty five percent seventy percent snapchers, we're talking about the possibility that Mims is a top twenty five receiver.
I was going to ask to put a number two. What range are you looking at him? Because obviously the further down you get, it's harder to be like very specific, especially this early in the rankings process. But are you talking like somebody that you think is going to be going as a wide receiver for you want a draft, if there's a wide receiver.
Three, is it higher than that, is it lower? What's kind of the range you're looking at.
I think he's probably going to go as like a wide receiver four or five right now, because when you add back the guys who are returning from injury, the rookies who are going to be highly drafted, like Ted McMillan and a meccag buca and Luther Burden, like all of a sudden, the names start to pile up, and I've got Marvin Mimms ranked in the fifties. But like that ranking should not reflect a lack of enthusiasm for
Marvin Mims. It's just being realistic about the usage and obviously, like I'm going to be moving him up if we hear Sean Payton talking about how he wants to get Mimes into the starting lineup or make sure he's a regular and three receiver snaps, it's just kind of a confusing rotation for the Broncos wide receivers right now. And we'll see if that holds or you know, I don't know how you can justify giving little Jordan Humphrey more snaps than Marvin Mims at this point.
Deever, what do you think about Mems.
I think I'm with Fitzi on this one. I think he's flashed continually every time they've given him the ball, given him opportunities. I just wonder why is Denver not playing him as a full time wide receiver, Like, considering this is not an offense that we're talking about, has just bookous of playmakers like the Cup runneth Over, you know. So it's like there's Courtland Sutton, and then there's a committee.
And so it's curious to me that Sean Payton. Now some of the data lines up really really well for Mems, and some of it you look at separation scores and route win rate, it doesn't look great for him. So I wonder when I go back and I'm gonna look at Mems more of this offseason, I think he's gonna get a guy, be a guy that once we get into the off season and stuff, just based off of all of us nerdery and the spreadsheets and stuff, the numbers pop for him. I think he easily could be
Don Tavian Wicks of upcoming twenty twenty five. Like, if you look at Marvin Mems amongst all wide receivers at least fifty targets, we're talking about a guy that was fourteenth in target per route run rate, and he was
also fifth in yards per route run. So as the as all the astute people in the industry start writing off season content and dynasty stuff, I think he's probably gonna get steamed up a little bit when we walk into draft season next year, assuming that Denver doesn't add like some of their prolific pass catcher to the offense.
Let's go to the Raiders four and thirteen this year. It's just a really tough spot for him to be in, Like, considering you're in the division with Mahomes and Andy Reid, Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, now Bo Nicks and Sean Payton, Like, this is really a tough spot to be Do you wrote what is your fantasy takeaway here for Vegas?
I'm just gonna keep this easy. Man, Rock Bowers is him. I didn't draft a.
Ton of him.
I wasn't as much on him, and it wasn't the talent I got really caught up in season with. Okay, it's Luke Getsy man, he's gonna find a way to screw this up. He's gonna say, hold my beer. And Luke Getz got out of the way. They got the jettison him, shot him off into the sun. And Rock Bowers is him. I mean, dude, he's he was He was awesome. I mean, we want to compare this even to the Sam Laporta rookie season and stuff like that. This is even better than that. I mean, you break
the NFL rookie record for receptions. He's a tight end three in fantasy points per game, He's top five and yards per route run and receiving yards per game. I mean, give it. Give him a competent quarterback play next year. Rock Bowers tight end one overall, It's not difficult to see.
Boys. I don't know who it will be, but let's just say the Raiders have the sixteenth best quarterback in football next season. Whoever that is, is Bowers in that scenario worth taking in like early second round pick. I mean, we've seen years where Kelsey was going in the first round the.
Same treatment of last draft season.
Basically, I mean, yeah, and Laporta I felt like was more at least in the draft I was in, he was more like a early third round pick. He didn't quite creep into that borderline first round range unless it was a tight end premium league. But I feel like Bauers, like because of the prospect pre pedigree was even better than Laporta's was coming into the NFL, and does this, you know, sets records and did it with a poor
quarterback situation. If we think it's improved at all, I mean to see somebody that's worth considering it, just the difference he can make it the position for you, Yes and no.
I think there's a conversation if there's gonna be an ADP gap between like him and Trey McBride or another year George Kittle to take the value, is it justified? I think it is considering all those things. But again, it kind of feels like we did this last year with Sam Laporta. So I mean, you know there's gonna be some trepidation and fear could blow up and Oliver for you again.
Are you gonna have Debro because I know you really like mcbridey you're gonna have him ahead of Bowers?
Are you gonna have I think the conversation is between those two for tighten one overall next year.
I think it's I think it's a tier of two.
Yeah, I did too. I think I think it just comes down to, you know, what do we think about those two players? But I think those are the conversation begins and ends for those two for tight end one overall fits.
Obviously, nobody was hiring brock Bowers that you were, even in you know, redraft, even with the landing spot in Dynasty rookie drafts.
I mean, you just never once shied away from.
Him as as I think you had him as Dynasty tight end one before the season started, right, so you could could not have been more on board with this, So you already knew brock.
Bowers was him.
Any other kind of takeaways from that perspective for his season, Yeah.
I don't know what the heck you guys are talking about. Is in a possible early second rounder? I think he's a first rounder this season.
Yes, I actually had a strong sense you did feel that way, which is why I framed it the way I did the because I knew you would be immediately.
Yes, I mean I think Trey McBride is a locked in second rounder and Bauer should go in the first I mean, look at what this guy did this year with Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Manshew as his quarterbacks. And I have the same sort of trepidation about Luke Getsy the Debro did. But then in his first preseason game, Getsy had Bauers lining up in the slot, in the backfield, out wide, in line, like all over the place. I'm like, Okay, gets gets he gets it. And uh yeah, So I.
Mean, what what pick in the first round? Are you taking him?
Fits?
Are you taking is he?
Like? Yeah, he's like my twelfth overall player, So he sneaks into the first round.
Are you like, you know, pick.
Seven, the elite elite receiver and running back options are gone. I don't know if that's actually the number, but just you know, in that mid range, are you like, I'm turning to Bowers.
I would consider him as high as number eight, and that is where I had him in my first mock draft that we just published a few days ago. People want to check that out, go to fantasypros dot com and you can find it. But yeah, I mean, I think there is still a case to be made with the tight end scarcity, and it still exists. It's a
little better than it was. Maybe when it was like Kelsey big drop off to Mark Andrews, big drop off after that, But now it's like Bowers McBride, then in aging George Kittle, who's probably like a third round value, and after that things start to get dicey Laporte. I
guess maybe he's a fourth rounder. But man, if you want to just like very affirmatively answer the big tight end question that everyone's going to have and just like take care of it the first round, get this dude who came in as a rookie and had an eleven hundred yard season and just look like an absolute beast. I totally get it. I think it's justified.
We are fresh off the season, so I just like I pulled up fantasy leaders on fantasypros dot com.
I will own this.
I was not aware, guys, the top three tight ends and fantasy points per game were only separated by point three points. Like legit, brock Bowers could have been the tight end one overall if only a small bit like moved in his way, like George Kittle was tight ended one to fifteen point eight. Brock Bowers fifteen point five. That's insane. Wow.
Yeah, I actually kind of thought he might have been tight in what I had forgotten that Kittle pulled ahead. But that's uh yeah, what a season.
Yeah, I mean more up points per game. I don't care about total points.
Yeah. Yeah, we'll wrap up there.
We are doing, like I said, all the divisions, so be sure to check out the other episodes, whether or not they are out already or are coming out in the in the next few days. Be sure to keep it out for those. So that was the FC West four debro and fits. I'm Ryan warmly thanks for tuning in. We'll see again next time. Thanks for listening to the
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