Projecting The First Round | The Top 12 Fantasy Football Players in 2025 with Jake Ciely (Ep. 1520) - podcast episode cover

Projecting The First Round | The Top 12 Fantasy Football Players in 2025 with Jake Ciely (Ep. 1520)

Jan 11, 202557 minEp. 1520
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Episode description

Chris Welsh and Pat Fitzmaurice are joined by Jake Ciely (@allinkid) to talk about their early 2025 Fantasy Football First Round Rankings!

Are Ja’Marr Chase and Saquon Barkley locked in as the #1 and #2 picks? Could Puka Nacua emerge as a Top 2 Wide Receiver? Does Brock Bowers belong in the First Round? Is there a clear choice between Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.? Regardless of destination, is Ashton Jeanty likely to go in the first twelve picks?

Our team takes you through all of these questions and many more! Tune in to get started on 2025 draft prep, and make sure you stay ahead of the competition!

Timestamps (may be off due to ads)

Intro - 0:00:00

My Playbook - 0:02:39

Pick 1 - 0:02:55

Pick 2 - 0:03:10

DraftKings Sportsbook - 0:11:14

Pick 3 - 0:12:50

Pick 4 - 0:17:53

Pick 5 - 0:20:39

Pick 6 - 0:23:48

Pick 7 - 0:29:19

Pick 8 - 0:29:30

Pick 9 - 0:39:59

Pick 10 - 0:40:10

BettingPros Premium Free Trial - 0:44:50

Pick 11 - 0:45:24

Pick 12 - 0:50:47

Just Missed the 1st Round - 0:51:05

Outro - 0:56:46

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Transcript

Speaker 1

What's up, friends, and welcome into Fantasy pros. This is the Fantasy Football Podcast. I'm Chris Welsh, and today we got a great topic Future, the Way Way Future twenty twenty five first round projecting. That's what we're gonna do. We're gonna take a look at who belongs in that first round. But I ain't doing it. Who's joining me? The great and powerful Pat Fitzmorse. Of course, my all season Ranks buddy and one of my best friends in

the industry. I have known him forever. He has always been a dear, dear friend doing great things for me, and now I get to direct and be very bossy to him. It is the athletics own Jake Seeley, the all in kid. Jake, what's up, buddy?

Speaker 2

What's going on?

Speaker 3

Say?

Speaker 1

It has been too long?

Speaker 2

And you started that off and I'm like, wait, is there another guest I don't know coming in?

Speaker 1

Well, Jake and I have shared other in person. Yeah, of course, of course, we shared Gelatta. We went to the Royal Rumble together. We have a long story history. We did a show for two years together. So I'm very excit to do it because I have done Ranks conversations with you for years, and Pat and I spent the entire season doing ranks, which, by the way, Pat, let's give a shout out just for one second, the ranks contest that just finished up. I believe, if I

remember correctly, top twenty five was the top twenty. I want to undersell you. I believe you finished inside the top twenty five of the overall maybe the top twenty twentieth. Oh, thank you, Welch. That's beautiful. I will tell you. Second best week I had was stupid Week seventeen. We just got the accuracy results. I finished nineteenth. I finished nineteenth, and I know because that's when it cousts the most I've That's what I think. Here's also my biggest, my biggest,

like excitement. I finished one spot ahead of Derek Brown this year, So no big deal. I just want to put out the King of Bros. Is going to have to sit one spot behind me in the end season ranks. But we're not here to talk about this season. We're here to talk about next season. That's what we're going to be doing here the twenty twenty five first round. It's already going to be crazy. We have got both of your guys's projected first round. We're going to go

through them, talk through some of the debates. There's some big ones, just as a preview. Can we see a tight end back in the first round? Is there a rookie that's viable there? And who is the standout? Are there any standouts from last year that don't belong or that are going to jump in? Those are the questions

that we're going to be asking in this episode. But make sure that you guys are dialed in with us all off season long, because just because football is starting to end, as you can tell, we're already looking to next year. We've already got I think some early ranks in draft ranks we're looking at. Dynasty shows are back in tune, so make sure you're locked in over at Fantasy Pros. You can always download my playbook. Drafting is

going to be here next thing, you know it. We got you cover to make sure you're subscribed here right here on the channel, the YouTube channel in the podcast for Fantasy Pros. Gentlemen, let's project the twenty twenty five first round and YouTube are boring. You both went shock with your first two picks. You guys went with the same two. You've got at number one, Jamar Chase. Shout out to Andrew Erickson, who's been pounding that Jamar Chase table all season long. Saquon Barkley comes in at two.

You guys both agree with this at one and two, a wide receiver, a running back that is not named Christian McCaffrey. So here's the question, and Jake, let's start with you on this one as our studious guest. Here are these the definitive one in two? Is it Saquon Barkley, Jamar Chase, Maybe in some type of an order if someone wanted to have the running back at the top. Do you think this is the no doubt top two picks? And is the order interchangeable?

Speaker 2

Hey, I think it's slightly interchangeable if you feel more comfortable taking and running back. It's similar to what we headed into this season, which isn't going to sound good when I say it, But it was Christian McCaffrey or Tyreek Hill or Justin Jefferson as the first pick type of conversation, and of course most of those didn't work out as the number one pick. Justin Jefferson was a

first rounder, but not the number one pick. But I think it's interchangeable if you want to take the running back. The thing here is that we have the best season since the rookie season for Barkley. We have Jamar Chase, which I'll give him the slight edge. And this is coming from, as you know, and everybody listening knows, my dog is named Barkley.

Speaker 1

So I'm a huge fan of Barkley.

Speaker 2

But the difference is is they both put up similar numbers. Whereas Chase might have a few, maybe one or two more games where his single digits, the difference is he also has multiple thirty point games. Barkley gets close a couple times. But those big, big ones that kind of carry your entire team are going to come more often from Chase than they will Barkley, just because of who he is. And I think this stands whether or not to Higgins' is back. If Higgins is back, cool, it's

the Chase we've always known. If he's not in the replace him with somebody else, maybe even to a lesser degree, maybe even more volume for Chase. So I have no problem if you want Barkley first to go to the running back route. But I think these are I think it's these two and then a tear drop off to everybody else, We're gonna be talking about.

Speaker 1

The running back, not the dog. Cle Yes, yes, clearly, Okay, just everybody was clearly it's the running back, not the dog. Pat, what do you think about this definitive one and two? And is it interchangeable?

Speaker 4

Well, if it were league with only two starting wide receivers, I think I'd bumped Barkley up to number one. I'm doing this based on a start three wide receiver league. But you know, Andrew Erickson pointed out on our Awards podcast the Other Guy other Day, a smart guy by the way, that it feels like maybe twenty twenty four was the year to draft Saquon Barkley, and he kind of rightly pointed out that seasons like the one Barkley

just had have a way of not repeating. So many times during the season when people ask me start sit questions involving some player who was a one week wonder, I'll tell them not to chase last week's points. And I think it's fair to wonder if taking Barkley one oh one or one oh two and twenty twenty five is a case of chasing last year's points like, look, Barkley is great, his offensive line is great, probably will

continue to be great. But I do wonder if it might make more sense to draft like an ascend and talent and Bjeon Robinson whose best seasons are probably still ahead of him, over a guy like Barkley who may have just had his peak year. So to me, there's really not much separation at all between Saquon Barkley and b Jon Robinson. And I might actually flip Bejon Robinson ahead of Barkley at some point. Not sure about that,

but he does look pretty full proof right now. But again, these things have a way of not repeating.

Speaker 1

Well, and that's going to lead to a really good question. But you know what's interesting is you were kind of talking about that. It leads to another thing that pops up for me in that you know, it's like definitive Jamar Chase. We just also experienced a year where I don't want to give a credit to the wide receivers, those top end wide receivers. I mean, Tyreek Hill was a big, massive failure. But you know, Chase, jeff Justin Jefferson kind of what wide receivers always do. They're up

but running backs. You know, we saw so many people wanting to fade running backs. You kind of felt the weight of not having depth at running back, or if you avoided those top end running backs, you felt that into the playoffs you might have more than ever. When we get those stats of like championship teams, you might

have more than ever. The Dereck Henry's in the Saquon Barkley is the top backs and not those lower guys that it kind of shoves in your face a little bit more why running backs could potentially be a little bit more valuable, especially maybe the elite elite ones. Jake, do you think we should carry anything of what the

depth of the running back position was? Maybe the pseudo I don't want to quite like a complete failure of zero running back because it always like it can work out, but we felt the weight of what we lost at running back this year and people might want to push those up. Do you think that maybe justifies pushing up guys like Saquon Barkley, like Bjeon Robinson, Jamier Gibbs, those type of guys that we're going to talk about.

Speaker 2

So my first and if I think about my second round are pretty similar to last year, and there's not going to be many more running backs. And the big advantage for last year was the value in Saquon Barkley and Derek Henry at the end of the first round. And I'll just straight liken it to the actual NFL and free agency. We just saw the normalist year for free agent running backs is We're not gonna see Derek Henry, Aaron Jones, Josh Jacobs, a Saquon Barkley in free agency

again this year. It's going to be a downturn. We're probably not going to see a ton of years where sixty seventy percent of the top twelve running backs stay one hundred percent healthy for the entire year and play sixteen seventeen games. So it's kind of an anomalous year. But that doesn't mean the strategy really changes. Is I still have some smattering of running backs in the first round. The values of the second round running backs are still

RB ones, but I'm gonna keep them there. I'm just gonna keep my strategy very much the same, and you kind of get that benefit of the ones that might be in the second round this year might be some of the ones that pop back inside the top five next season just because of how certain things shake out. So I think that yes, you felt it, and you can always play you kind of alluded to it. You can play the hindsight of like, sure zero running back worked.

If you got Chase Brown and Bucky Irving and Rico Dowbel. It's like, yeah, how many teams hit on all three? How many teams like we're able to do that playing zero RB? It was very few and far between. I think the biggest thing here is understanding that there is still value with the top tier of running backs. But I feel like that's always been the case. It's just this year happened to be a little anomalous with how many stayed healthy.

Speaker 1

Yeah, and it might be fair. This is a really great point that Jake makes. It might be fair when we do assess this that it's not necessarily about overvaluing running backs early on. Then it is being like, hey, cool that we did the like I'm going to do a running back round one running back or I'm sorry, wide receiver in the first round, the second round, the

third round, maybe in the second round. There's going to be incredible running back value this year that we need to be a little bit more balanced through our first four or five picks in what we have at running back, then it is shoving running backs ahead of wide receivers. Do you think that's kind of fair?

Speaker 3

I think it is fair.

Speaker 4

And boy, when you look at the second round, remember what a minefield the second round look like in twenty four twenty twenty four drafts, and like for twenty twenty five, the second round looks fabulous. It's a candy store. So kind of kind of a night and day difference there. I know we're supposed to be focusing on the first round in this show, but but yeah, I mean, like Jake's point about the injuries was a really good one.

It was almost eerie how few running back injuries we had this year, especially in the first half, first ten weeks of the season. I mean it was Isaiah Pacheco, and I really can't remember another significant running back injury, and normally the injury rates of running back. Yeah, McCaffrey, although he was remember why why don't recount that? Like

that was damaged goods coming into the season. But and generally, I mean, I think injury rates tend to be higher at running back than they are a wide receiver.

Speaker 3

And it was just totally flipped on its head this year.

Speaker 1

No, that's like total and that's totally what you take with it. Like the safety of wide receiver. I mean, Tyree Killigan did fail us, but for the most part, injuries kind of like fading a little bit on wide receivers, like they are safer with the huge upside. But there were so many running backs that was attached to Oh, Henry's getting older. That was everybody's argument about Saquon, Like, Okay,

he always gets hurt. Going with a better team, better offense, everything should smash for a great year, but he always gets hurt and that's why people talk themselves out of it. And there were so many that were healthy. Things are going to start to get different, you guys are not going to start agreeing, and it's going to happen with the next pick. But first, let's talk about our friends over at DraftKings because NFL playoffs playoffs. Are we talking

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Speaker 5

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Speaker 1

These two players are not the same. Coming in at pick three projecting for twenty twenty five, We've got Pat's own, Bijon Robinson and Pukinakua for you. So of these are great, Pat, you alluded to Bjean Robinson jumping up maybe even above Saquon Barkley. And really, what I'm curious about is like two running backs in the first three picks. I don't remember the last time anybody, especially a prominent name like you in the industry, was comfortable with that. I don't

feel like people are comfortable with that. So what do you think alters outside of what we saw in twenty twenty five? Like, what do you think is so deservant of two running backs being inside your top three? And I think you've already kind of alluded to what the gap between these two is. It's very minimal because you might jump them, but two running backs inside your top three is quite a statement, pat, which I love, by the way, as a running back guy.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean, just how good these guys are. Sakuan has always been immensely talented, and we saw him dropped into the perfect situation with the Eagles in twenty twenty four, and Bijon pretty incredible in his own right. Fifteen touchdowns almost nineteen hundred yards from scrimmage this season, and it still kind of feels like there's meat left on the ball.

Speaker 3

Like the way the way Bijon.

Speaker 4

Patiently sets up blocks and waits for holes to open up reminds me so much of peak Le'Veon Bell, except Bijon is much faster and more explosive than Bell was.

Speaker 3

So and it is.

Speaker 4

There's some other guys we like and I think are worthy of first round picks, but like Bijon lead back in what's probably going to be an ascendent offense with Michael PENNOCKX Junior, and we saw the improvement down the stretch once he replaced Kirk Cousins. Exciting offense and Bijon is the tip of that spear.

Speaker 1

Now, Jake, you do not have a running back here. You're going wide receiver. You said not a ton is going to go and crazy change. I do love this because this is some me and Bagman actually talking about. This is a big discussion piece of what you do with Pukuinakua and you say no more noos. As far as wide receivers, he's a third overall player for you,

So let's talk about that. I mean, you guys definitely now have a stat ablished the difference in your wide receiver values as well, but third overall pick for Pooka in you know that offense with some injuries? What's got you him? What's got you having him there at three?

Speaker 2

So I'm glad you brought up injuries because that's one of the things. If you take the games where he was hurt and then also not running eighty percent of the routes, and you only take the eighty percent of the routes games, which is basically weeks ten through seventeen, you're talking about eighteen point six a half point prepr per game, which by the way, is second only to Jamar Chase. He's right on his heels and that's a significant gap to Justin Jefferson now at three, and that's

what it really comes down to. Of course, I'll throw the caveat that. A Stafford shocked this in the offseason and was like, hey, I'm walking.

Speaker 1

Out, I'm gone.

Speaker 2

But I think as of today, I think the bigger question is not Stafford. It's it's Cup even back with this team, and we've seen the numbers with and without Cup that you're talking three to four targets per game, two to three receptions per game, three to four fantasy points per game boost with no Cooper Cup. On top of the fact that all those games I'm referencing with

the eighty percent routes were games with Cooper Cup. So I think Puka Nakula, similar to the argument Pat was making about Bijon, I think, is still on an upward trajectory. I don't think we've seen the best of Niakua, and if I'm going for who can challenge for that number one spot, I'm not going to unseat Chase, but I would take Niakua as the second wide receiver off the board and my third pick.

Speaker 1

Pat, you don't have Pooka there. But I'm just curious, like, do you think Pooka is in in the tier group of the wide receivers that we're talking about. It's perceivable that, like you get U three different tiers of wide receivers in the first round, you know what I'm saying, Like Jamar Chase can be his own universe and everyone rotates

around him. We're gonna talk about number four here in a second, But do you think Puka is in this conversation Even if you don't believe he's the second wide receiver, He's in the conversation of that top tier of whiteouts very much.

Speaker 6

So.

Speaker 4

I have him pretty much in the same tier with Justin Jefferson and Ceedee Lamb. The only reason I have Pooka ranked behind those guys is because he is a mildly worrisome injury history. Like in college he had a broken foot, a high ankle spray, and a hamstring issue, got a concussion at the Senior Bowl during practices, didn't play in the game, and of course the knees sprain early in twenty twenty four.

Speaker 3

But Puka is awesome.

Speaker 4

I mean, there were so many times this season when I would be watching a Rams game and the Rams would have the ball and it would just be so obvious that Puka was the best player on the field offense or defense. I mean, and he just Jake mentioned Cooper Kopp. I mean, by the end of the season,

Puka Nikua had completely marginalized Cooper cop So. But yeah, like I have thought about what Jake brought up with Matthew Stafford and if he does decide to hang up the cleats, and like, you know, if they are somehow able to acquire Sam Darnold, then I don't think we move off Puka at all. But what happens if it's a Gardner Minshew type stopgap situation?

Speaker 1

What's the lowest then? Because it's very funny that you guys are doing this because number four in the list we're gonna talk about Justin Jefferson. I was gonna ask, what do you guys, is everyone gonna freak out if if a no quarterback? You know, like everyone was like Jorjia McCarthy, he's gonna be Jeff Jeffers would be amazing. And then it was Sam Donald then when freaked out

and started dropping him out of the first round. Is that what's gonna happen with Pooka if it takes a little bit of time, Sam Donald, you're not Sam Donald, but Matthew Stafford's gone, and someone else that isn't of Sam Donald like comes in. What's like, where would you move him?

Speaker 3

Pat?

Speaker 1

Let's start with you, would you move Hi out of the first round Pooka?

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean I could see a scenario where the quarterback situation was so troublesome that I moved him into the second round. But I mean it could be Bailey Zappi and I'm not moving him any lower than the second round.

Speaker 1

They could keep Jimmy Garoppolo Jake. I mean, what would you do if it was like a Jimmy Garoppolo type of player?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I would go into the same I thought Pat was going to lean into the Jefferson thing too and say, let's be honest, that was a stupid argument this offseason. Is that because the thing was is with Justin Jefferson, we already had evidence of him doing it with what we would call not even a backup worthy quarterback in Nick Mullins, who was potentially not even the backup this week, as they might used Daniel Jones as the backup. Just

to tell you what we're talking about here. We already had the evidence of Jefferson doing it with a subpar quarterback, So I'd say Garoppolo would make me keep Nicoa in the first round. I would drop him a few spots

because I think Garoppolo is replacement level. If we went Nick Mullens further like those kind of like to put that joke aside the Bailey z Appy, he'd probably fall down to the second But it wouldn't be enough that I would go much further than that, as Pat said, it would have to be really bottom of the barrel eight and o'connells of the world, stuff like Temy DeVito's And I'd say second round. But it's still because that

volume is there. And then what the biggest dang Pat said that I didn't is it's what we saw at the end of the year. He was so good that if you had never watched football before, you'd be like, man, that guy that's gotta be like, what the number one wide receiver in the NFL, right, like, just objectively watching that game, he was that much better.

Speaker 1

Yeah, And I it's hard to have the argument of being like any wide receiver is quarterback proof because we were shown that's not the case Tyreek Hill with Skyler Thomps. Skyler Thompson broke that. I'm like, oh, Tyria Gill, Nope, you can have that. But you would imagine the Rams are gonna put themselves in a situation where Puka can go I find it. I guess hard for him to fall out of the first round really no matter what, because I don't think you're gonna see a situation where

they're left with the Nick Mullins. They probably would be reaching out for Sam Donald or you know, making a solid quarterback choice across the board, probably having that toe in toe with Matthew Stafford having some type of an agreement where he just doesn't leave the team. Coming in at four and five, agreement time again, we're back to

a complete agreement, Justin Jefferson. Hopefully we don't make an argument if JJ McCarthy is now the quarterback and they get rid of Donald that he belongs down and Cede Lamb, so both of these guys locked in. You both have them at four and five. Justin Jefferson, Cede Lamb, Jake give us some takes. Obviously, Dak will be back, but the Cowboys are kind of a mess the Vikings. The only question is does Sam Donald return. Because of Sam

Donald returns, we know exactly what we're in for. There's a little bit more of a question JJ McCarthy, but that was what everybody wanted before. So where do you think the variance is with both of these guys at four and five?

Speaker 2

So Justin Jefferson with McCarthy, I don't even know if I would change his rank again. I go back to the Nick Mallins if you can do it with Nick Mallins. And it really comes down to this team as a whole, which is a completely separate NFL topic to have here. But Sam Darnald, let's be honest, we already knew who he was and bringing the Giants to this, you throw him on the Giants, He's gonna be old Sam Darnold.

Speaker 3

Again.

Speaker 2

It's about environment, it's about the weapons around you, It's about the coaching staff. Kevin O'Connell I would put in the Shanahan conversation and others where you put certain mid level quarterbacks in there and they're going to be much better because of their environment there and their weapons. So

I'm not worried about Justin Jefferson. If it is McCarthy, I'm of the mindset that they franchised to do one more year, and then we've already had to talk about McCarthy not possibly being ready for Week one, so that remains to be seen.

Speaker 3

But put it this way, I'm not moving Jefferson.

Speaker 2

The Ceede Lamb one comes down to obviously hoping that Dak Prescott is one hundred percent and Cede Lamb are both on because we just came off a year where Seeding Lamb was in the conversation to be the number one wide receiver and game in and game out. Even if they do what a lot of people are projecting them to do in drafting Junete, I really don't see

it changing from the volume. The biggest thing about Ceedee Lamb is he's one of three, maybe four wide receivers that sits in the thirty percent target share range, and I don't think that even if they shocked the world and signed T Higgins, I don't really think that's going to change enough where maybe Ceedee Lamb falls a spot or two, But I think he deserves to be here as long as Dak's okay, which we all expect as of today.

Speaker 1

Pat, is there any part of you that you know when Dak went down, Ceedee Lamb got kind of destroyed in ranks and then Cooper Rush figured out, I'll just throw seventeen times a game to Ceede Lamb every other throw and that kind of fixed some stuff. But do you think with that type of volatility and how this offense is. Look, I know you put him at five.

Do you feel super comfortable with Ceedee Lamb at five, especially with some of the pieces around him, because I think if anybody like Ceedee Lamb showed the volatility of the team the quarterback, there's health quarterback questions and what his value became when he lost Dak.

Speaker 3

I mean I do.

Speaker 4

With Dak back, and then even without Dak, he's still produced. Maybe he wasn't quite as efficient, it took more volume as you mentioned Welsh, but yeah, I still feel comfortable with him, and plus like this is not going to be well, maybe it is if they get genty, maybe they can start to lean on their running game a little bit more. Again, but look, the defense is not what it was a couple of years ago, so they're probably not going to be in many like super run

friendly game scripts next year. I just feel great about Lamb and the talent, Like he's just proven how good a player he's He is just a locked in first.

Speaker 1

Rounder number six the halfway point here for the first round. This is a difference. So you guys have had half of your picks so far inside of the top six be agreements. This is another disagreement, Pat, this is where Puka comes in. So you ended up having uh, he's wide receiver four. I suppose that would be so two one wide receiver, two wide receivers above and then Jake at six, you've got Jamiir Gibbs. So, Pat, any other

takes you want to throw on Pooka Akua? You did put him below CD, below Jefferson, and below obviously below Jamar Chase, so he comes in at wide receiver four. Anything else you wanted to add on Pooka.

Speaker 4

No, and no issues with where Jake draft him, drafted him, or wanted to have him in the first round. Like for instance, I'm in a home league with a partner, a good friend of mine. Like if we were deciding between a wide receiver early on in the first round at like one oh four, and he wanted us to take Puka Nakua over Jefferson or Lamb Like, I don't think I'd argue with him.

Speaker 3

I'd be okay with drafting Pooka Jake.

Speaker 1

You established yourself as two running backs in the top six. Now, so Pat is two running backs inside of the top three. Your second running back comes in, but it is not Bijon Robinson. We've got Jamiir Gibbs, who is a freaking monster, but does share with an they're great back. So talk to us about your six overall pick Jamiir Gibbs.

Speaker 2

It really comes down to consistency, and I have no problem, as Pat just said, with my back, I have no problem with b Jon Rominson. I'm not gonna sit here and be like, ah, you're stupid to take him in front of Jamiir Gibbs. It just comes down to me and looking at Gibbs season, there was three players in all Fantasy that scored double digits every single game, Jamier Gibbs, and the other two were quarterbacks. Just to give you an idea of that. That doesn't include Jamar Chase, Saquon

Barkley and the rest. And it really comes down to that. Was even while splitting with David Montgomery even while David Montgomery taking away touchdowns, and we all expect David Montgomery's back next year. I just look at Gibbs as I don't see how it can get worse. It might even get better. We saw the end of the season. If Montgomery does miss time we're talking about, he was the number one running back over Barkley even without David Montgomery.

So I feel like Gibbs us the second one running back is kind of almost like the floor as crazy as that might sound to say he's the floors RB two, maybe it's three or four, but it just comes down to a little bit of consistency versus the fact of there is another option with the Falcons, as we see in Algier, and I don't think he's the threat level to Montgomery, but he's still enough that there are certain

weeks where the Falcons just go away. And I just don't know what Pennex is gonna and I'm a Penix guy, mind you, I just don't know what Penex is gonna look like over an entire season, which for all intensive purposes,

will be a true rookie season type for him. So it's just it's nitpicky, honestly, and when it comes down to and this is even if Ben Johnson leaves, like if it's Scotty Montgomery the assistant head coach who's a running backs guy, like it might even be slightly better if they go to Mark Brunell, who's the quarterback coach. Maybe he even gets more checkdowns. The point being is, I don't think the Ben Johnson's offense, even if he leaves, is gonna change much.

Speaker 1

And I can't imagine the team pat is going to look to move completely away from the dominant run game that they ran. And that's like, that's where the floor start to exist with Jamier Gibbs. Is we can say Dave Montgomery, de Montgomery, dea Montgomery, but Jamior Gibbs still scored as he did with Dave Montgomery. So now imagine if he's out of there in the upside of where Jamier Gibbs. So I think that's where kind of the land of Jamiir Gibbs is. And you've got him, you know,

jumping ahead just one pick. He's comes up here at seven. So three running backs in side the top seven, so I know you're probably in pretty firm agreement, but he just doesn't jump Bijon, and there's a little bit of a gap between a couple positions before you tap into Jamiir Gibbs.

Speaker 6

Pat.

Speaker 3

Yeah, but not much.

Speaker 4

Not much of a gap between Beijon and Gibbs for

me either. And to Jake's point about the consistency, I think there was only one game all season and half point PPR where Gibbs did not hit ten points at least double digits, and in the one miss he had like nine point three and that was with David Montgomery up until his injury, averaging sixteen touches a game, and then with Montgomery out, of course, Gibbs went completely nuclear and carried a lot of fantasy teams to titles because I don't think he scored less than like twenty four

half point PPR points per game in weeks fifteen through seventeen. So yes, like rock solid floor and sky high ceiling. Pretty good combination.

Speaker 1

Now seven kind of boring because we've already talked about these guys. You guys both agree there are three running backs in the top seven. Because Jake, you've got Bijon Robinson at seven, Pat, you've got Jamiir Gibbs at eight. Now let's play with this bad boy because this was the discussion that Bogmin and I have and I love this Pat because you and Bogman do a show together and you guys can argue to your faces are red. Pat at eight has brock Bowers. We have our first

iteration of a tight end. In a little bit, Jake, you've got a mon Ross Saint Brown at eight. You're boring. That's tropy here, So we don't even need to worry about that. We are going to talk about brock Bauers in here because I'm gonna give you a heads up. Jake, you do not have a tight end. You do not have brock Bowers in the first round. I will not have brock Bowers in the first round. Pat, you are

first round brock Bowers, and I get it. I get a guy just about broke the tight end single season record. There's a little part of me though, that's like we've been now on this road before and the recooping of value. There's always kind of that, like what's the wiggle room of what he has to do to return that value? So I'll shut up. You tell us top eight overall pick brock Bauers in twenty twenty five.

Speaker 4

Would I really be arguing with Bogman about this, because I think he's the one guy who's higher on brock Bowers, or at least he was coming into twenty twenty.

Speaker 1

The agreement is there. You guys both love brock Bowers. He's a firm disagree of a first round tight end though.

Speaker 3

Oh okay. Interesting.

Speaker 4

So my take is that tight end is always such a problematic position, and brock Bauers is such a resounding answer to the tight end problem that I do think he warrants first round consideration in much the same way Travis Kelcey did all those years when there was kind of a gap between him and the rest of the tight end pack. And I kind of do think there is a gap between Bowers and Trey McBride and company.

Like Bowers is faster than McBride, had a better college career, doesn't have the same touchdown allergy that Trey McBride seems to have. I mean, brock Bauers as a rookie with Aidan O'Connell in Gardner Minshew as his quarterbacks, had one hundred and twelve catches eleven hundred and ninety four yards five touchdowns. He finished third among all pass catchers in receptions, not just tight ends receivers too. Only Jamar Chase and Amen Ross Saint Brown had more catches than Brock Powers.

And he did this with a very suboptimal quarterback situation that really can't get any worse for twenty twenty five.

Speaker 3

So I mean, I don't think this is peak brock Powers.

Speaker 4

I think they're going to be better statistical seasons, which is scary to imagine. So I do think he belongs in the first round.

Speaker 1

So I have a I never do tight ends in the first round, so that kind of reeks to me. The bad quarterback play seems like upside, but I can't get out two things out of my head. You're gonna have a brand new coaching scheme and whatever that could bring. And then I think about guys like Sam Laporta and King Kate. Sam Laporta was like, oh my gosh, look at this, and then it was just he disappeared in

the offense. Now, well, it's a very different situation. And that's not a designation I guess against brock Bowers time. I just don't think brock Bauer's talent is in question. It really just kind of becomes about the concern of him being able to produce like top eight or top ten. Jake, your take on this is where I'm leading up to tight end in the first round. Can you do it?

Speaker 2

So let me preface this by one of the nicest guys, and I love him, one of the most. So before it's.

Speaker 1

Gonna be so mean, it's gonna be me. You're gonna be mean.

Speaker 2

I am one hundred percent coming for Pat and anybody of this take. I just I will never come to this argument. I will never agree with this argument. But this is my stance, and I know a lot of people actually disagree with me, including I've done Pat Mayo's show for ten plus years now, and he made the case for Travis Kelcey in the first round. The biggest thing even to compare to Travis Kelcey. Well, so two ful, let me take one step back. He wasn't even the

highest scoring in points per game this year. George Kittle outscored him a full point per game. So we have twelve point two, which is what I'm gonna bring up. And I do agree in the fact that we probably haven't seen the best of ours. It was his rookie season and I think Bowers deserves to be. In a conversation, Laporta even wasn't where we're talking about. I hate to use the word, but generational tight end prospect. And I'm not even going down the Kyle Pitts route because Kyle

Pitts was an athletic freak. He wasn't a very good receiving option, which is now we're seeing the NFL expose him. So all in agreement of the talent, what it comes down to is you need to have the Travis Kelce fifteen fifteen and a half points per game to warrant the argument that he's even considered first round. And even then at fifteen fifteen and a half points per game, you're still not even a top seven wide receiver. And we don't have seven wide receivers in the first round,

or maybe we just barely do. And that's where I'm going with all this. If you want to, I mean,

I'm not gonna call you crazy. I might call you a little drunk maybe, but it comes down to I'm not sacrificing a running back or wide receiver for somebody who I hope can just get to tight end or wide receiver six or seven, which is still barely first round material, which comes down to the argument you just made, welsh Is And if I knew, like, I'll use what something you said earlier, Pat, if you told me they shocked the world and they're the ones that signed Sam Darnold,

I mean, be like, Okay, you know what, I could get to the fifteenth, sixteenth pick. I might get close to the first round, but I'm not running back down that road again with the Raiders to just hope that I get a leg up when that leg up isn't even there right now and we haven't really seen it since Travis Kelsey. So yeah, I'm just never going to be a tight end in the first round guy.

Speaker 1

And it really does skew some mock There are mock drafts out there already where he has gone in the first round. So like credit, dude, that's a bogman. And I did a mock draft and I took him on the two three wheel, so the indie I usually took him like third pick in the third round, but call it second last pick in the second. I know, we but here's the problem. It's never gonna happen. Like there's us, there's some of us, so if you want Rock Bauers,

your investment is going to be higher. I think it makes sense for him to be that wheel pick, but he's not going to be. He's going to go higher.

Speaker 2

And the argus and what happens people, Sorry, I was gonna say, what happens is if Pat, you're right and he does hit fifteen points per game, he's deserving at the end of the first round pick. Sure, But the point is he has to have that leg up. He has to have that three point four point gap on the next best tight end for that to be warranted. If it's only one, if he's right in that same realm, you'd lose what edge you're trying to gain. And that's

that's my biggest issue with that. If you told me, if Pat said, hey, I'm twenty twenty six, Pat, I'm telling you, Jake, he averages fifteen and a half points per game and the next closest is twelve, sign me up for the first time ever. I just that's the biggest thing.

Speaker 3

Pat.

Speaker 1

Would you feel the same way if the Raiders sign Deon Sanders as coach and then Shadur Sanders is the quarterback they draft, and it's aid O'Connell and Sad Sanders as the two quarterbacks in Las Vegas about Stay Oakland.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I mean that's maybe a slight upgrade over you know, O'Connell's stoning the picture and it's Shado or over Gardner Minshew.

Speaker 3

So I guess that is a slight upgrade. But that's the thing.

Speaker 4

Like, the one thing that could improve him and get him to have that three or four point gap between him and the next highest tight end is the touchdown total, and like the quarterbacking is going to help with that. Any sort of quarterback improvement is going to get him from five touchdowns to ten or eleven, which is kind

of where Travis Kelcey was in his heyday. So and look, I mean I'm not I wasn't one of the Travis Kelcey in the first round people either, Like I just kind of like didn't really enjoy the builds I had when I would do mocks and take a tight end in the first round. So the thing is about the

argument with wide receivers, like positional scarcity does matter. And I kind of came around to the Kelsey thing by the end of his great run, you can sort of and I always do take issue with the idea that wide receivers suit deep.

Speaker 3

It's not as deep as you think. But there are other options.

Speaker 4

If you bypass a wide receiver in the first round or even the second round, like you can kind of backfill it in rounds three through six and still come away with a pretty good wide receiver corps. Yeah, but if tight end gets away from you after a certain point,

I mean, you're gonna get crushed at the position. And instead of having this guy who uh you know, I do think is kind of generational considering for him to put up these numbers as an early declare rookie just incredible and like he was phenomenal at Georgia when he was an eighteen year old freshman, true freshman, Like he has been way above the class every step of the way, and I think that's just going to continue. I don't think he's like the Kyle Pitts result is not a possibility in my opinion.

Speaker 1

I will say that the gap of like what we used to look at where it was like Kittle and Kelsey and Andrew like that has changed. Like Kelsey, I don't want to say wash, but it's just not the same version. Like you know Kittle and McBride, it seems like if you're gonna make the argument for what is the top tier, it's like Kittle, McBride and Bowers, and it's like, how close is all of that? So from a positional scarcity standpoint, it makes sense I can't push that. But don't worry.

We get to pick on Jake here in just a minute. Oh hold on, we'll do it.

Speaker 3

I want to.

Speaker 2

I want to say no because I want to touch on one thing that I think kind of might get glossed over too, is Pat brought up bills, and I agree, like one of the biggest reasons is I don't love my bill at tight end. I will say it's not one hundred percent, but I feel for everybody out there

that does want to go this route. I would lean into not zero RB, but I would push further down of let me wait on running back, because the problem is if you take tight end and then you do take running back, now you're almost creating this problem, so to speak, at wide receiver, where the bills you're talking about, like the bills that come out if you do kind of lean into us zero RB ish kind of run

when you do take Bowers. Your team looks better construst when you're done, because you still have the wide receiver strength, and the drop off that you've already given at running back isn't as great as the drop off you're gonna give at wide receiver if you try to play balance after that.

Speaker 1

And sometimes, like those type of builds give me anxiety, like where you're chasing yourself and you're playing like like I may I'm boring sometimes and that's why I don't do those tight end builds because I'm always playing from behind at a certain spot. And you know, like Waivers been great the last couple of years, to be honest with you, you can make some big pickups and you know you don't have to. Your draft is not one.

On draft day, you know it's gonna you're gonna have a pretty good idea once you get a couple of weeks in, you've made the right moves and stuff like that, and you do have the position locked up, there's no question about it. It just there's some inherent risk. Nine and ten we got a combination of wide receivers. We mentioned Jake's pick at eight was a monro Saint Brown. Pat You've got a Manra at nine. Jake, you've got Brian Thomas at nine. At ten, that's where Pat's got

Brian Thomas, and then Jake, you've got Malik Neighbors. This is a really great collection of wide receivers. A Monro seems, I mean, he could almost live in like a tier maybe above these guys, but you get just massive amounts of big targets. Brian Thomas was just an absolute destroyer of worlds for all the positive reasons for fantasy. Shout out to Ericson for his like seventeen to one Brian Thomas bet for this year. So I'm just throwing a couple of wide receivers at you, Jake, Why don't you

give us a couple quick hits or any thoughts. Brian Thomas, Malik Nighbors, a mon Ross, Saint Brown. This is a nice crew of wide receivers we've got here.

Speaker 2

It is and I think some people similar to this year might be happier draft in the back end of the first round than you are at the top because you kind of doubled down. And then we'll talk about guys that missed and be able to hit one of those that we would think could possibly be first round talents. You're also coming to somebody that you can't see. But I have a Brian Thomas signed football job behind me that as soon as he was drafted and as soon

as he changed his signature. You can go back look online he hast b Thomas eleven when he was in college and then when he got signed in the NFL and switched at to seven. Now it's just BT seven, much cleaner, much nicer looking. But you're coming from somebody who is a Brian Thomas guy to start with, who who said that he deserved to be in the conversation with Malik Neighbors. So like, I don't want people to

be like, you know, Jake's coming impartial. I'm kind of coming a little bit rose colored glasses on Brian Thomas. But similar to some of these arguments we're saying here is we have Trevor Lawrence who might be playing like he's not obviously playing for his NFL career with the contract he has, but he might be playing for the last shot gas but hoping he can even be a top twelve quarterback in the NFL next year. Like there's certain questions of like we were all wrong on Trevor

Lawrence right now, like there's nothing to improve. So bad year from Trevor Lawrence. Then not even Trevor Lawrence at quarterback, Mac Freakin Jones and Brian Thomas.

Speaker 3

Is putting up.

Speaker 2

Oh, by the way, the only AFC wide receiver better than him in yards and touchdowns was that Jamar Chase guy, by the way, who should have been in the Pro Bowl, Brian Thomas, not Zay Flowers. I just throw that out as well because of that, the numbers he put up, And I think that if we were talking about any other NFL draft, Brian Thomas could have been seen as the best wide receiver in the draft class.

Speaker 1

He just got hit with a really bad year.

Speaker 2

So I actually I'm setting that all up to say, is I really toyed with not just having Brian Thomas over Nico Collins, Malik Neighbors, and others. I went back and forth and potentially even over a Mamras Saint Brown.

I jokingly said this on the Serious XM Show that I just did earlier today with Dane and I said, if Ben Johnson ends up with the Jaguars, Brian Thomas a number one wide receiver, but tongue and cheek in the fact, like, I think he would be in the tier with Chase and Jefferson if he had a coordinator that knows how to run that office and potentially save Lawrence's career.

Speaker 1

Pat, what do you think about the idea of Brian Thomas ahead of a monro Saint Brown?

Speaker 4

Well, I was just my mouthless starting the water about the Ben Johnson Brian Thomas combination, but I kind of feel like the Jaguars retention of Trent Balky might have squashed that dream. I don't I don't think that's gonna be the first choice for Ben Johnson, who's pretty pretty much the pick of the litter for head coach candidates. I was fascinated to see that. So I know Jake's a Giants fan. No, I haven't been.

Speaker 2

I haven't been since the second year they drive Daniel Jones. I said I'll give him one year. I've sworn off. I have a Texans hat sitting right there I almost wore today, but Notre Dame is playing tonight. Like I legitimately said the year they drafted Daniel Jones, I'm done

with this team. I'm so sick of the organization. John Marra I said, I'll give him one year to prove I was wrong about Daniel Jones, And so the next year after that, switched to the Texans before they draft the Stroud because I'm like, nobody likes the Texans and the Colors are similar. That's actually why I went to the Texans for a reason.

Speaker 4

So I thought I might get pushed back on having Thomas ahead of neighbors. And then Jake's frankings come in and I see that Jake actually as Brian Thomas franked ahead of me. But I have the same sort of internal debates about Brian Thomas junior versus Nico Collins and aman Ros Saint Brown. And I also thought of putting BTJ ahead of amen Ra and decided against it.

Speaker 3

But to me, that's almost like a coin flat.

Speaker 1

Now there might be so fluidity with that in the offseason, it seems like as well.

Speaker 4

Yeah, and Jake mentioned it another player like Rock Bowers with very suboptimal quarterbacking in twenty twenty four, who thrived despite it and whose quarterback situation can only get better. So yeah, I mean, I think he's a slam dunk first rounder. I don't know if everyone's going to see it that way, like I think when ADP information comes in,

he might be an early second rounder. But another thing that makes my mouth water the possibility that you could have on the turn the two LSU receivers, if you're sitting on the wheel like that would be pretty fun.

Speaker 1

See, now you're getting us into a whole new territory. All right, we're gonna get fun here. We're gonna pick on Jake here in just one second. But first we've got a special offer for you all. You can unlock a month the Betting Pros Premium for free all playoffs. You can have access to the incredible tools that we've got. Download the Betting Pros app today. Use code FP free because you can get access to these same game parlay tool, the prop bet Analyzer, Prize picks, prop Bet cheat sheet.

Easier to do than to say, so don't miss out drive for free. You can get one month right now available on iOS or Android and unlock all the tools to make your bets and you can follow like Pat and myself. You can see what our bets are throughout the week. All right, I jokingly say we're gonna pick on Jake. I'm not surprised about this at all because I said, does a rookie belong in the first round? Can you put one? The answer is yes, coming in at eleven not a rookie for Pat, is Nico Collins

coming in for Jake at eleven? Is Ashton gent the rookie running back. I remember having the Saquon conversations years and years and years ago. He did this, and Jake has kind of come out on top on a decent amount of these. Jake Genty doesn't have a destination. But does it matter? It clearly doesn't. You've got Ashton Genty as the eleventh overall player, a first round pick going into twenty twenty five. Let's hear it.

Speaker 2

It really comes down to you. No, it doesn't matter because I know whoever's going to make that leap is probably walking into twenty touches a game. And similar to Ezekie Elliott before Saquon Barkley and then Saquon Barkley. Heck, even some of the more recent ones. Beejhon Robinson was technically a disappointment as an RB one. He was still in RB one his rookie season. So I look to all these and I say the obvious easiest one everybody's

making is the Cowboys. But what let's be honest. It's almost like joke tongue in cheek, like, oh, let's just put him on the Cowboys. What if he gets past the Cowboys he ends up on the Chargers. You're telling me he's not going to be new Ladanian Thomlinson.

Speaker 1

What if he gets further than that?

Speaker 2

And the Vikings say, you know what, Aaron Jones contract is no dead money. Will draft gint and add him to that offense? Like there are teams what if the Bengals do it? There are teams in the first round where you're like, oh my god, three hundred touches from this guy. And yes, the talent he deserves to be in the name conversation of rookie Saquon Barkley, Rookie Ezekie Elliott, rookie is some of the best we've ever seen. And that's why he's going to be a first round pick.

That's why there's talk about him being a top fifteen pick. And that's what all comes down to is I start looking at the running backs we're going to bring up as guys that just missed, and we have workload concerns, We have offense concerns, and I even say, on the worst possible offense in the league, put put him on the freaking Giants. He'll be Saquon Barkley on the Giants, which is still a top ten running back. Does he deserve to be first round?

Speaker 1

No?

Speaker 2

But I'm assuming it's not going to be that bad. It's really what it comes down to.

Speaker 1

I suppose that my only concern. But this is like going to work against what I'm saying, Like what if he goes into a situation where he's Bucky Irving to Rashad White. Well, Bucky ended up taking the role halfway through the year and became you know, an RB one

and Da da da. I guess my question always with a lot of these guys, more, particularly because we don't know his destination at this point, is what he has to do to return this value When you're taking him over Josh Jacobs, you're taking him over Jonathan Taylor, you're taking him over Christian McCaffrey. I know there's like obviously concerns there, but you're doing You're making some big, bold

moves and what he has to return value? Pat you do not have genty inside your first round here, what do you think the best case scenario can be for him that associates with your rank?

Speaker 4

So I've got him in the middle of the second round, and like, I don't think it would be a tall order for him to return first round on value? What does he need to do? Sixteen hundred yards from scrimmage? Ten touchdowns and he's worth it?

Speaker 2

Like that's oh, you're like kind of a shoulder struggling.

Speaker 1

What's it gonna be like? And he's like, I mean that's pretty tough to.

Speaker 4

Do for genty And I mean Jake makes the great point that it's been kind of assumed he's going to Dallas and that's almost like a worst case scenario for him, and Dallas wouldn't be a bad landing spot for him at all. But like the Chargers or Vikings, like that's delicious, and I mean, he really is that special prospect. I mean, a guy who shouldered a massive workload at Boise State, just carried the whole offense on his back all season, and his contact balance is so extraordinary, like among the

best probably we've ever seen. Like you can just not knock this guy off his feet easily at all, Like it takes more than one tackler, or you got to wrap him up like he just is impervious to contact. It's obscene.

Speaker 1

Let me ask you this, then fifteen touches of gent per game is a first rounder.

Speaker 4

PAT fifteen Probably not. Then he's probably more of a mid first round or on mid second rounder, which.

Speaker 1

Is where I have you agree with that, Jacobs f.

Speaker 2

I'm glad you put this. So let me put this like I'll play my own Devil's advocate here. Let's say it does go that route and it is fifteen touches game. Let's say he is Bjohn Robinson's first year, which was RB nine, which we saw Moster jump him. I mean, nobody saw Mostert coming, but Derek Henry was in front of him and others like that. Let's play devil's avocates say that what did you really lose from the end of the first round to the middle of the second.

Speaker 3

Not much.

Speaker 2

But I think the equitable situation is that just as likely as it is for him to be fringe RB one, there's a world just like Barkley, Christian McCaffrey, Ezekiel Elliott where he finishes RB one or two. Like I think both scenarios are in play. And that's why at the end of the first round, maybe when people look at this and take a step back and say, look at only Jake's running back ranks, like wow, that's that's a little crazy to have him as a top four, top

five running back. But what's really the big difference between four and seven when you're at this point in the draft. If you don't draft them at the end of the first round, you're not getting them. And that's really what it comes down to. If you want to make the argument for some of those running backs we're going to talk about, fine, cool, but I think there is a ceiling where he's the first or second running back period overall.

Speaker 1

You want to be a real psychopath, you could take like Bowers and Ingenti and just the first and second round and just like live that world. We're talking a lot about the guys that just missed it, so let's kind of get to that. The final pick. By the way, at twelve players, we have talked about Pat'sott Molenk neighbors Jake. You've got Nico Collins that finishes out the first round. If you are score if you're doing scoreboard here, the

differences were Gentie and Bowers. Those were the well, I mean, there's like variations of numbers, but those are the two players that one did not have the other did not have. So the question is who missed out? You don't have to give me all of the players, but Pat, let's actually start with you on this one. Who missed out that made you uneasy? It could be a couple players. It could be you know, one or two or three

whatever that you really wanted to get in there. You think maybe your deservative first rounds or were there none? Were all these guys just like assured second rounds, but just curious that who just missed your cut?

Speaker 4

Mostly a collection of running backs Welsh, It was a Chan, It was Josh Jacobs, it was Derrick Henry, and it was Bucky Irving.

Speaker 3

Those were the guys.

Speaker 4

And I think Henry Henry is probably going to be the most glaring omission to a lot of people. But he did just turn thirty one. I have to admit to being kind of an agist, and maybe Henry is indeed a different species altogether, and it's going to keep churning out numbers like this till he's thirty six. But he's thirty one and doesn't really catch passes. So I just have a hard time sticking with that archetype as

he continues to get a little bit older. And I know I felt the same way coming into this year, and I didn't get Henry on any of my teams and it sort of burned me. But you know, I'm just kind of going down swinging with that take, Jake.

Speaker 1

I'm mean, I guess there's probably a couple, So I'm curious who missed it and who's the one that really stood out for me?

Speaker 2

Like, yeah, Derrick Henry, Karen Williams, even Bucky Irving I think could do more, Jonathan Taylor a chance, Like I'm just gonna throw this one out. This isn't the one that stands out, but I think I'm gonna continue to say it. He doesn't need When we talk about these things a lot of times too. Is why we talk ADP is because you don't have to take these guys here.

But I'm gonna go right back to somebody who had a ton of and I know health is a major concern, but you know who finished with better points per game than Justin Jefferson T Higgins Cincinnati Bengal IF t. Higgins is back on the Bengals. His production on a per game basis is first round worthy. You don't have to take him there. You can get into the third. That's why I'm actually with the one I'm gonna say is

not Derrick Henry. I'm gonna say the same thing I said last year about Derreck Henry as he's a freaking nature. I'm gonna keep doing it until he stops, because he's a freaking nature. In his first two years weren't real workloads. Anyway, I wanted to put him in the first round. But the one that I struggled with the most was actually Jonathan Taylor, and it comes down to with or without

Anthony Richardson. Like Jonathan Taylor, the reason I had him on quite a few teams is because he was projected from my highest carry volume this season, and if you actually parse him out to seventeen games, he would have had the most carries in the NFL by a decent margin. This guy was averaging twenty one carries per game. The downside is the more of those carries, the bigger games came with Joe Flacco than they did with Anthony Richardson.

And I'm not playing that crutch argument of like the Jalen hurt Steels touchdowns, Josh Allen Steel's touchdowns, because he saw how that worked out, that this year worked out just fine. It comes down to Anthony Richards just just runs more, and then you only get seventeen carries from Jonathan Taylor. And I know that sounds like, oh wow,

I would still take seventeen carries from Jonathan Taylor. But you're also to Pat's argument with Anthony richardson not getting the volume in the receiving game that you might get with Joe Flacco or other quarterbacks. So that's why I really wanted to And Taylor did finish so super strong that he finished his at top six running back, but that was weighted heavily by the Joe Flack. So I want to put him there. I just I don't think he can get there because of his environment.

Speaker 1

Last question, we can do it kind of a quick one. Where does Christian McCaffrey fit in these drafts? You guys had not one single reference. He was the number one overall player. It's still a San Francisco forty nine er offense. Injuries are absolutely scary, and maybe it's going to go down this route, but there was not one mention of him remotely close into what you guys were talking about. So, Jake, let's start with you. Where does Christian McCaffrey fit.

Speaker 2

I'm so glad you asked that we're actually doing most contentious names over the athletic right now, and one was Christian McCaffrey, not even first round. The question was Christian McCaffrey top ten running back?

Speaker 1

I said, one.

Speaker 2

Hundred not a question in my mind, because yes, we can play the injury game. We've brought up a lot of players that we talked about the injury game. And yes, there are histories with mccouah, histories with T. Higgins, and we do have a history now with Christian McCaffrey.

Speaker 1

We've had it before.

Speaker 2

We just had it two years ago for the twenty twenty three season when everybody's like, ooh, I don't know if I can do Christian McCaffrey in the first round because look at he keeps getting hurt. If Christian McCaffrey plays fifteen games for the forty nine ers next year, he's gonna be a top five running back. And that's really what it comes down to. So you don't have to take him in the first round, and I had a feeling you're gonna bring him up, which why I

didn't put him in that list. I'd probably have a tough if I'm on the board, I've only had four running backs, I would sit there and consider hard as the fifth running back, Christian McCaffrey, just because who's left from this group? Who can finish number one? Nobody but Christian McCaffrey.

Speaker 1

Yeah, that's kind of my big point homer Ism. Aside, Pat, same thing, Where does Christian McCaffrey truly fit in this for you?

Speaker 4

I have him ranked RB nine, and I think he's like sort of in the back end of the second round, and to me, like he is an ideal pick. I always think draft strategy should be tailored to how you relate to the other fantasy managers in your league, Like are you one of the sharks or are you playing against a bunch of really sharky people?

Speaker 3

And maybe you're.

Speaker 4

Strength of certainty and we this loves risk, And if you have a lot of really sharky owners in your league who you know are obsessed enough to do this for a living, perhaps maybe it's worth it to take a swing on Christian McCaffrey late in the second round, because if he hits, he's going to hit big. And you know, obviously we know the risk, but he is a guy who could give you a chance to win your league if you hit on him around the two three turn.

Speaker 1

Pat fitz Morris and Athletics own Jake Seeley Jack, what you got going on? You just mentioning you guys were talking about the most contentious names anything else.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I'm doing my off season series of looking at projections and their finishes in the wildest outliers and then the ones that I hit closest on, but what we learn from them, like what are our takeaways? And it's quarterback and then positions from there, so the quarterback next week.

Speaker 1

Nice, Well, Jake is a must follow Pat fitz Morris always. You can find me out there as well. You guys want to have those fun debates and Fantasy Pros has got you covered. We've already got twenty twenty five ranks out dnasty coverage. You want to go over be a part of the community. Check out the Discord Fantasypros dot Com slash chat where Paton Bogman do some of those live shows. We get worm in there as well. We're

doing Dynasty. We've got discords that turn into podcasts. You can go and check that out for free Fantasypros dot com, slash chat, even check out the premium and make sure you're locked in to the website because we have already got everything set up for twenty twenty five ranks, the NFL Draft, and a bunch more of the season. It's not even over. The smoke hasn't even cleared, and we're already locked into it, so make sure you are as well,

and you are subscribed on the YouTube and podcast. Gentlemen, thank you so much for talking twenty twenty five. Hopefully you guys enjoyed it as well, and we will talk to you next time right here on the Fantasy Football podcast here at Fantasy Pros. Until next time, Bye bye, friends.

Speaker 6

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