Hello everybody. Welcome into the Fantasy Pros Football Podcast. I'm Ryan Warmley, joined today by Andrew Rickson and Chris welsh Fellas. It is Conference Championship weekend. We only have three more games of the NFL season that the playoffs. It whittles
down so quickly. That's oh, we have the whole playoffs ahead of us, and two weeks later it's there's three total games left in the season, which is sad, but it is exciting that we get to watch some football on this upcoming Sunday and then of course on Super Bowl Sunday two weeks from that, we have Commanders Eagles, we have Bill's Chiefs. Before we kind of get into how we did in last week's predictions ericson and what our predictions are for this week. How do you just
feel about these matchups in general? How excite are you for this to be the foursome that we have in Conference Championship weekend.
It's definitely not what most people would have anticipated, especially with the Commanders here being in the final four. I think the three other teams are pretty chalky. A Chief spills AFC Championship game, I don't think you would have been going out on a limb saying these would be the two teams in the AFC Philadelphia ups and downs all year, but they are been one of the best team to think, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
But I mean it's got to be the Commanders, right, Just this going with behind a rookie quarterback who basically doesn't seem phased by anything because he lives in a one point seventy five speed virtual reality and then goes steps out into real life and is like, oh, this is easy mode. This is my life in an easy mode. I need to find a way. Maybe I listen to podcasts on two point x speed. I'll be a better listener.
For my wife is telling me to do certain things, and I'll be I'll be able to register into my mind in a better way. But yeah, I think that the Commanders share are a really fun team to at least look at and see. And I think that what makes it extra special is that they're playing in division rival right. If it was a Commander's Verse another eight maybe like the Texans or another NFC team, maybe wouldn't
have as much. But the fact that is a third game, a rubber match between NFC rivals, especially in the NFC East, we always know that rivalry games, anything can happen, right, So that's kind of what gets me excited for this game is obviously you know Bill's Chiefs, the rivalry that keeps on, you know, continuing on. So we'll see who emerges victorious. But yeah, we'll break it down.
Wells, what do you think did Ericson just reinvent couples counseling forever?
That sounds about right? Yeah, I mean I think like this is this is solid. Like you want a little bit of parody, everyone starts screaming. I mean, everyone does it no matter what you know with whatever the Chiefs do. You know, the memes of the the refs and Patrick Mahomes Jersey swap and stuff like that, Like we've got to have some parody. So I'm I'm totally fine with Washington and especially Jaydon Daniels. That's funny you say, like
one point seven to five Speed. It's kind of like you ever like have like a nephew and they're like, hey, you want to play a game, and you're like, yeah, sure, let's play Madden. You know, let's play Madden. And it's just like they grew up playing on All Madden the entire time, and it's just a natural and they just know the play. That's kind of how Jade Daniels was. He just makes it look easy. It's very fluid. But there's also something to the quarterback class that we're seeing.
You know, this isn't that old. You know Trent Dilfer or Matt Hassel about getting a team and just like, you know, just doing enough to get It's like, no, it's incredible. I Mean, if you were to argue which quarterback at this point is the closest to a guy that's doing just enough to keep their team in, it would be Jalen Hurts. He would be the one that's just doing enough. Like the guy doesn't pass, you know, it's under twenty pass attempts practically every sprinking game, it
seems like. But like, it's a great quarterback class that's going to be out there. These guys are going to keep them in the in it. I know you're disappointed. I'd be disappointed too, you know, for your team to be out of it. It's one of those where you're like, we just have the Ravens move over to the NFC for a little bit as well. But it's a it's a great matchup. It's gonna be phenomenal games.
And you know, there were everybody say going to this playss there were five teams that could win the Super Bowl. It was two in the NFC, three in the AFC, so we knew all three couldn't make the conference stationship game. One of the Bills or Ravens had to lose. And on the other side, we thought it was Eagles Lions. The Lions were the upsets it to your guys point, and I mean that was a crazy game too, Like
it was very fun to watch that upside. Like maybe I don't speak for everybody, I had more fun watching the Commanders upset the Lions than I did worrying about I was rooting for the Lions and wanted to see them make it. Like it was just cool to see kind of this wild back and forth game, to see Jade Daniels really kind of step up in such a rare way for a rookie quarterback. I mean, it's something like a half dozen rookie quarterbacks have ever even made.
I think we like to see it. But I will say I think of all the teams to have sacrificed. I think like a majority of people would have been like, not the Lions. I mean, maybe I'm wrong here. I think people would have been like, you get Bills, Ravens, Chiefs Eagles, we can do that. Like the Lions were the one that I don't.
We just saw Chiefs Eagles a couple of years ago. So I would assume most people what they were rooting for was something if your team wasn't involved, I would assume most people were rooting for Lions Bills like that. That was kind of my incredible Oh, it would have been awesome. But I just think people like Josh Allen and people like like the Bills haven't won it, and like the Ravens it was twelve years ago, but they
have won a Super Bowl. Like I think, I think if you had to pick one, for most people, it probably was who were casual fans, It's probably Lions Bills. But yeah, we'll see what. We'll see what comes.
By the way, can I ask were you? Are you not in all your games? Set up?
Here?
You're telling us you're not excited about the Pro Bowl flag football game or the Pro Bowl? What is it? The punt pass throw whatever? It is for four year olds. It's going to happen to other Pro Bow? Are you saying you're not excited about these things?
Were? I think I've watched less than ten minutes of Pro Bowl coverage in my life.
I actually don't know what they do anymore. I haven't watched it. Probably I don't know either.
I will not watch or care.
I muted the term Pro Bowl and all my social media, so I don't know what you're talking about us decision I ever made.
Obviously I do. I'm still paying attention to the you know, MVP, which is clearly voted on already, and I'm I'll be paying attention to that awards show just to see what happens with Lamar. But as far as like Pro Bowl stuff goes, no, absolutely, unequivocally, could, could not care less. How did we do in the division around? Let's see how the guys did. Both guys were wrong on their chiefs picks with the player of props, but Checko and
Hopkins both went under. Ericson was wrong on Jamison Williams receptions. Welsh was very correct about Theammy Brown's receiving yards over The guys were both wrong on Rams Eagles Cup did go over fifty yards. Aj Brown failed to get a touchdown, no passing touchdowns for the Eagles in that one. And finally, James Cook did go over on rushing yards while Derek Henry went under on attempts, So both guys missed on Ravens bills as well.
So is that another another donut for me?
There was, but the two of you combined for one correct prediction.
It well, I got diamic, but Miami Brown was like, oh, you're saying the total combination was just me?
I like it? Like that better. Let's just say we combined dire prediction.
Good job as a job, by the way, just like Jane Daniels twenty two completions. That was I guess that was on the betting show, but that was out there.
It just everything you guys were largely correct. I mean, obviously the Commanders is a big upset, Like it's not like you guys had the Texans winning. So when I say you were wrong in the Chiefs pick, it was in the player.
You know, we we I was. I remember I was messaging Welsh and I was like we In hindsight, it was so clearly Travis Kelcey as as the Chiefs player at tu Tar game, we were messing around with these other guys. I was like, we're being stupid.
Watching we'll do in this game.
That was sneaky. No what doing here? So I, as all will get into the picks for this week. I have made amends for my mistakes and I am not going to overthink.
It this time. It really was Like obviously I was quite you know, distressed on Sunday night with the Ravens losing, but like in general, just like you know, taking any bias aside, it was an amazing like weekend of games. So like even if we were kind of wrong on a lot of these like Wildcard weekend, bit of a letdown and just in terms of like as from a fan perspective, but Divisional Round like totally delivered it.
It was.
It was a really awesome quartet of games. Hopefully we get a couple of games just as strong on Sunday. We'll go chronologically. The AFC Championship is the earlier game this year, so we'll start with Bills Chiefs even though I think that's probably the game most people are most excited for. Uh, well, we're gonna do because we only have two games here. Rather than the guys giving a prediction for each game, they're going to give a prediction for each team in each game, so they'll have four
predictions each. We'll start on the Bills side of this one ericson what is your prediction for the Bills against the Chiefs on Sunday.
I'm gonna go with Khalil Shakir is going to go over fifty three and a half receiving yards. Basically, when you look at the Buffalo Bills receiving room, Shakira is the only guy that has been consistent in any way, shape or form this season. Like they have a rotation of up to five guys with Samuel mccollins, Amari Cooper, key On Coleman, but Shakira is really that main guy that Josh Allen looks to in his time of need.
We saw it this last week. Six catches sixty seven yards on seven targets, which are thirty two percent target share. He was the only Bills for she ever received more than one target in the first half. So it's so clear when Josh Allen drops back to throw when they're not running the ball, or whether he's not running with his legs or handing it off to James Cook. It's going to Khalil Shakir, So I like the over on him this week. He's been over this number of fifty
three yards and ten of seventeen games this season. That's fifty eight percent. And in a game where I don't know if the Bills are going to just be able to hand the ball off a million times and run. I feel like if they're going to beat the Chiefs, they got to beat the Chiefs. Like going into a Chiefs game thinking, oh, let's keep it close. I bet we can win it in a close game. That seems like the worst possible strategy could have based on what the Chiefs have done in close games. All they do
is win these close games. So I think the Bills need to be a little bit more aggressive. So Shakira as the number one wide receiver on the Buffalo Bills, I like taking the over fifty three and a half receiving yards in the matchup earlier this year when the Bills beat the Chiefs, he had eight catches on twelve targets for thirty two percent target shap for seventy yards.
Yeah, Shakierra, I mean, like you said, seven targets. The only other player on the Bills with more than two targets was the running back James Cook. Like this, he was just the guy throughout throughout that game and really throughout the season. Welsh, what do you think about Shakir over fifty three and a half receiving yards?
Yeah? I love that. This is like it comes back to Ericson and I's debate will have like receptions versus yards. His reception marker right now is five and a half and it's plus money, which, by the way, I like that. But also at five and a half, if they're implying, if they're implying five, essentially what they're doing, they're implying five, fifty three yards is a pretty good marker for him. I also, and this is going to tie into my next one, I think this team is going to have
to pass the ball. They're gonna have to kind of buck that trend if they're going to end up winning this game. This is not a team historically or you know, over longer periods of time this season that you can really run with. So there is like a game establishment if they have a lead, obviously they are going to lean on that. But if they are at all playing from behind, they're gonna have to throw the ball. That
will lead to my Josh Allen prediction here. But Khalil Shaker is going to be imperative to that.
He is the guy.
He's the guy that's to be sitting around the middle. He's a safety net. So I like the yards, I like the receptions. To be honest with you, at plus money this week, Who the hell am I? Those was a horrible week last week. But I am tailing this with ericson one hundred percent on Shakir.
You can get into that Josh all prediction you've got for the Bill side too.
Yes, again, it just it's kind of like a juicy plus money play. If you want to have two plus money plays with some correlation, how about that Khalil Shakir plus five and a half receptions to what I like here, it's plus money for Josh Allen to throw for two touchdowns in this game. There's actually a lot of plus money on two touchdown throws. For this. Josh Allen has hit this marker of two touchdowns in five of his last seven games, so that's solid an interesting one because
I believe he's going to have to pass. Josh Allen has not thrown for thirty has not had thirty pass attempts if you don't count Week eighteen. Four straight games he has gone under thirty pass attempts. The last two games that he had thrown he shown thirty or thirty four and thirty seven against Detroit and the Rams. Both of those games he threw for two touchdowns. In fact, six of nine games this year where he's had thirty or more pass attempts, he has thrown for two touchdowns
or more. That is how they're going to have to end up beating the Kansas City Chiefs. Obviously, he's going to try to take it into his hands and run.
Some run for Josh Allen is always in play, But to over two or over passing touchdowns at plus money is a play that I really like in a game that I think they're going to be playing from behind a little bit and they're going to have to be aggressive, and I just don't think unless they are just destroying the play clock and it's just like three yards, three yards, four yards, and then they're just doing like the National Championship game where it was like Notre Dame for like
eight minutes on the first drive and less are doing stuff like that. It's going to keep it out. But I think we're going to have to see a heavy dose of Josh Allen getting the ball in the air. And I like the two touchdown passes.
What do you think about this one, Eric's I mean, the Bills have run the ball so well recently, even against you in a very strong Ravens run defense, just on Sunday. And also you know when they get in close, they like to run with Alan at the goal line. But what do you think about this? You know, two passing touchdowns for him this week.
Yeah, that's my reservation about it is because they had zero red zone pass attempts last week. Like, they didn't try to throw the ball. They were just like handa James Cook jylesh Allen's always a can to twenty two past attemps total exactly. So I like that. Obviously, it's a big payout and you're looking for, Okay, where is this game script going to change? And I think you also have to take a step back and think, well, they don't just have to throw the ball in the
red zone. They can score outside the red zone, right, They can take some of these bigger shots with Anamari Cooper with key On Coleman, where it's funny we look at these guys receiving yards, they're props. They're all so low because no one really knows which guy's gonna pop off here. But I think someone is gonna pop off with one of these Bills receivers to trying to figure out, Okay, where do I put my which you know we am I going to put the eggs in which basket here?
With is it? Cooper is a key On Coleman as a Curti of Sam Well, who I believes scored the last time that these teams played each other. So I think that might be an interesting angle two to look at these longer anytime touchdown bets because you're going to get really long shot odds on a lot of these Bills players, but you know they're going to score some points. It's a forty eight and a half point total. The Bills aren't going to go up and score ten points in
Kansas City. I think that's gonna happen, especially with the Chiefs defense specific against the run that hasn't been as good as it was to start the year. So even if you look back at the James Cook stat line, because I looked at like, should I go back to the under on James Cook? Not a chance? Not the way that the Chiefs run Devius has played, and how well James Cook has played running the football. So yeah, that's kind of how I'm viewing the Josh Allen passing touchdowns.
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that provide the most value. Our bet systems allow you to create and back test custom strategies that help you find value and maximize your bankroll. Take the guesswork out of betting. Download the Betting Pros app, use code FP free and start winning today. All right, guys, on the other side of this one, the Chiefs, obviously they're going for the three p tier or not this week, but to get the opportunity for that if they punch their
ticket to the super Bowl. In this one, ericson what's your prediction on the chief side?
So I need to ask you guys a question first. So Travis kelcey right is playing a lot of postseason games, So what do you think his consecutive streak of playoff games, if at least seventy receiving yards is unless you already know, unless you know, the NUM's.
Probably pretty big. I want to say, like six.
I was also thinking six. I do not know the number.
That's fourteen.
I almost was like, I almost was like, well maybe maybe it's a crazy high like eight or nine go for.
Well the problem with them too, by the way, six this only accounts for like two years. So yeah, well a good point, like fourteen makes sense.
It has been. And so this is why I'm so mad at myself for last week and just not like looking at like this so obvious trend that the guy is, you know, seventy five percent all the way and then playoffs kick off, and this is what he turns it on. So it's funny because if you look at the prop at chie sheet like it's going to tell you got to take the under here, it's too high of a number. But he just it's it's a different guy that we're
playing with here with Travis Kelsey. So I'm my prediction he goes over sixty nine and a half receiving yard, so it hits that seventy. Mark marks his fifteenth postseason game in a row that hits seventy receiving yards. So yeah, that's it for me. I'm not trying to overthink it this time with Travis Kelce. Will he be as lucky, you know, ripping off yards after the catch? Maybe not,
But I don't know. I feel like he still has just that other gear in the playoffs, and that's where Mahomes is looking, and he Mahomes doesn't really looking at a ton of other receivers besides Xavier Worthy in the matchup last week, and it was Kelsey. You know, he was the target leader. I know that he struggled against the Bills the last time that they faced off to
catch us on four targets for just eight yards. But Noah Gray had a pre involved game there, So I do think that you could sell a tack this Bills defense with the tight end. You saw Isaiah likely Mark Andrews at least be involved again, not to at least what one would expect in terms of their actual involvement in actual on field production, but you saw him getting targets. I don't think that the Bills are going to totally
on to neutralize Travis Kelce. So I like taking his over seventy receiving yards.
Yeah, not at all surprised to see him stepping it up in the playoffs. So I think this is what we kind of were all expecting, you know, not like not caring about the regular season, but definitely taking it easier and then saving it for January. Yeah, February twenty twenty, that Super Bowl against the forty nine ers was the last time he was under seventy yards receiving in a playoff game. That is a that is five years. That is a long time.
Is that before COVID?
Yes, that was like a month before everything really shut down. So pre wow, freak.
You guys like, oh, it's gonna be like, that's gotta a big number six or eight fourteen.
Well, I mean, obviously we know he's been amazing, but like you gotta think there's like one kind of misstep here. There just one where they ran the ball that didn't need him. But I mean he's one of the greatest postseason players in history really, so that's that's not exactly going on in a limb. I like that one Welsh what do you think?
Yeah, I mean it's a high number, but historically kind of says it. Also defensive coverage wise, I think they run a lot of like too high zone. So like that middle of the field is opened up, and that is I struggle with two things. It's that is going to open up for them, and that's going to put up good placement for Travis kelcey. But also, if you're the Buffalo Bills, what's the one thing that you want to stop. It's Travis kelce that should be the hyper
focus of anything. And that actually also leads into mind I'll just jump into it that I love Xavier Worthy. I love Xavier Worthy in this realm here fifty point five receiving yards over. I will tell you this, there's a sprinkle to go higher. Uh and maybe we'll talk about on the Betting Show this week, But there's some good odds if you want to jump up the yard marker. But for this I think he's going to be heavily involved. He has had nine or more targets in three of
his last four games. Last week he had six targets, five catches forty five yards. He did not get over. One of his biggest problems Xavier Worthy has been he is really even though he can stretch the field, he's not really been like an a doc guy, Like he doesn't have like a great depth of target. He'll get the ball in shorter yardages and make plays. In fact, he has not gone over one hundred yards this entire season. I actually don't think he has gone over. Eighty seventy
nine is his total on the season. But as far as his coverage goes, I think this works pretty well for him. The last matchup, they had four catches sixty one yards and a touchdown. And also in the playoffs so far for Xavier Worthy, he has a thirty five percent first read Did you know only one one wide receiver has a higher first read percentage in the playoffs.
That's Khalil Shakir by the way, So those two with the highest first read percentages of their team, but Xavier are Worthy number one in design plays of the players that are still out there, sixty six percent design play of any of the active players that are still out there, so they want to get him the ball a lot. His receptions are really jewic sed up. It's a low receiving yard total because everyone doesn't know what to do,
but we know he can break one big play. I'm heavy heavy on Xavier Worthy because I do think the defensive plan is going to be straight shut down Travis Kelce. They have not established a great running game Isaiah Pacheko. It's like, hey, look he's here for two drives and he's gone, and then it's like Kareem. They just don't have this great established run game. If you shut down Kelsey, they're gonna have to go to other spots. But either way, we know Worthy is going to be that guy with
high first read and high design plays. So I love Xavier Worthy to go off in this game. So the easy plays will just take his over receiving yards at fifty at fifty point five.
To think this one ericson, I like it.
I mean Xavier Worthy. The last time he played the Buffalo Bills, he had four catches for sixty one yards and a touchdown. So he's already done it in this particular matchup. He's been consistent. Last six games, he has at least five catches. So, yes, we look at Kelsey and what he's been able to do in the postseason. But when you're just looking at consistency, right, who is
the Bills. We know they have Kalii Shakur, like that's been their consistent guy, and in the second half of the season, it's been Exaber Worthy that's really been that consistent guy, whereas like Hopkins will randomly show up or Marky's Brown will randomly show up, but then they disappear the next week. So I think that Worthy makes the most sense here. And really, I mean he's taken on.
He's following the exact path we saw Roshie Rice fall last year, right, kind of up and down first half of the year as a rookie, We're like, oh my god, here's this guy a bus he doesn't know how to get his feet and bounds what's going on? And then the second half of the season he starts to finally break out a merge, gain the trust of Patrick Mahomes, and be really involved. So if the Bills do try
to neutralize and hone in on stop being Travis Kelcey. Well, they drafted Worthy in the first round for a reason, right to be another element to Patrick Mahomes. So I think that he's going to maintain a consistent role here generate yards out to the catch, So I think, yeah, he's gonna be a lot involved in. I think you could even look at even not even seventy receiving yards, but potentially just all purpose offensive yards because we know he also gets like an occasional rushing it.
That's not posted yet though I completely agree. I would have posted that, but they didn't posted a number. It's probably going to be at sixty, i'd imagine, because I think it's four point five on the rushing yards, and usually they put a little juice if you're taking both sides of those. But the other thing, by the way, just to add in since I jumped in, we both know why this is so great for Xavier Worthy is
because DeAndre Hopkins doesn't exist anymore. He's not on the team, he's not part of any offense or any catches or anything like that. After last week we learn that he did something wrong and he's no longer involved in the offense. So even more for exavier' worthy.
All Right, guys, who is winning this game? The line is Chiefs minus one and a half at home in arrowhead. The total it's actually the same total for both matchups on Sunday forty seven and a half. So in this one, do you like the over? Do you like the under? Do you like the Chiefs minus the points? Do you like the Bills with the points? Ericson? What say you?
I'm gonna take Chiefs to win, Chiefs money line. I'm not gonna mess around with these spreads, with the team's taking automatic safeties. I'm not doing I'm not dealing with this stuff. It's all rigged anyway. So it's gonna take Chiefs to win. Start again, take the Chiefs in the rest?
Do you a do you have a feeling on the total?
I like the under in this game forty eight and a half. I think it's just looking at Hey, these two quarterbacks are gonna throw for a bazillion yards. But the Bills have shown, Hey, we like to run the football. Maybe they do that a little bit more, even if maybe, I mean I think if they want to win this, I think if you're projecting a Bill's upset. I think they would win in a high scoring game, but because I think the alternative where the Chiefs win, I think
it's the classic Airhead Stadium. Maybe a twenty four to twenty one game that's tighter, and the Chiefs what do they do in tight games? They win?
So, just to clarify, it's forty seven and a half, not forty eight and a half.
Oh forty seven? OK? Still right?
Well what do you think?
Yeah? I like the Chiefs. I'll take the spread one and a half. I don't know what the difference on the what is it like one fifteen one and a half and like one twenty five for the money line, I'd be fine too, But I think one and a half is probably an easy play. I also like the over in this one. I think this is going to be close. I think this probably comes down to a
field goal. We have seen you get all these mixed missed extra points and whatnot that there definitely is a play where you could have, like, you know, a team that is down by one. But even in that same instance, if you have a team that is down, let's say Chiefs are down by one point going into that final drive, they kick a field goal they win by two. So I'm comfortable with the spread, and I do like the over. I have the implied two touchdowns on Josh Allen. I
don't think there's going to be any runaway. I think these teams are both going to score some points. I think it is going to be played in the air a bit more. So give me the over and give me the Chiefs minus one and a half.
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We've got two great games of conference championship Sunday for the right to head to the Super Bowl. We've already talked about Bill's Chiefs. Like I mentioned before, Kansas City laying a point and a half at home. The total is forty seven and a half, the same over under as the NFC title game with the Commanders getting five and a half points in Philly. This is one of the best football days of the year, and no matter how the lines and odds change, it's going to be
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All right, guys, Commanders Eagles, we'll start on the commander's side. Welsh, what's your prediction?
All right, going over to the commanders, let's go to Jayden Daniels, and I actually think there's a lot in play. Not going to do the completions again twenty two point five, the ends at twenty two, but we know he is going to sling the ball. I'm going to go with passing yards for Jayden Daniels going over to twenty four. I will also throw out another one that I like,
is over two fifty is plus one seventy. He's gone over this two twenty four number, though, in five of his last six games, including the Eagles, Daniels has attempted thirty or more passes in six straight games if you do not include that week eighteen. We'll talk about the commanders here in a little bit, but this team, clearly, I mean, obviously Jade Daniels is going to do plenty with his legs, but he is throwing the ball, and he's throwing the ball with accuracy. You now have Diamie Brown,
You've got Zach Gieus, You've obviously got Terry McLaurin. Zach Ertz is going to be heavy. He's got his targets, Eckler, Brian Robinson. They can move the ball, and what he does with his legs changes the scope of defenses. Overall. That has worked so well for his accuracy, and that's like the big thing. It's not just he's slaying the ball in hooks. He's such a good accurate quarterback though, and he moves around in the pocket. He is enabling
opportunities for his wide receivers to get open. And they have met the call and there's some big play guys in there. So to twenty four, I know, you know Eagles in general, that feels a little bit difficult, but that is how this team wins the game. You could also view it as they win it by Jadan Daniels moving the ball with his legs. But it's a pretty high number at fifty two. I love this one. Two twenty four overpassing yards even like I said, maybe on
the betting Pro side. I'll talk about sprinkling a tiny bit more at that two point fifty and plus money, but we will take that low passing yard total.
How do you see this one, Erickson?
I like this one.
You know one player that's consistently been beating his passing arts projection every single week has been Jade Daniels. Last five full games that he's played, he surpassed his passing
arts projection. So even hasn't always been over two hundred and twenty four passing yards, he's always passed for more yards than what he was expected to do, and that includes a game against the Philadelphia Eagles, where has been one of the tougher passed evens is only three quarterbacks all year have actually gone over their passing arts projection since they kind of turned the corner after their bye week, Lamar Jackson at the Stafford last week, and then Jadan
Daniels when he faced the Eagles earlier this season. So yeah, I see no reason why to fade away from Jayde Daniels Rookie of the year quarterback sensation doesn't play anything like a rookie quarterback.
How much, just before getting more of the specific predictions, how much for you guys, are you weighing the previous two matchups, because obviously, as you've kind of alluded to, this isn't just you know, sometimes you see a rematch later in the playoffs, but these are divisional opponents that know each other well, that played twice this year already. How much weight do you do you give to the stats you saw in those games when trying to make predictions for this week?
Well, I'm picking the Eagles to win spoiler. So that and that goes into my consideration where yes, Daniels has looked fantastic these last two playoff games. He's faced the tamp Bay Buccaneers and the Detroit Lions after they lost their one good cornerback at the beginning of the game, I mean Robinson who got hurt after he played a really great game the week before. So yeah, I think it doesn't matter, and especially because it's really going from
one end to the spectrum to the other. Like the Buccaneers and lines defenses were bottom of the league, like outside the top thirty, and now you're going up to the Eagles, which is not just top five, but number
one overall in terms of just total pass defense. So that being said, Dales has done it already against this Eagles defense, and Quinya Mitchell is also dealing with an injury, so it remains to be seen whether he's going to play, but he would obviously be a significant loss as a cornerback for the past defense.
I think, like the matchups, they're important because it does show what they've done against that defense. But obviously things have changed, aggression has changed in the playoffs. Part of my problem is that, like I think, one of the biggest glaring holes of really any team that you look at in the playoffs right now is literally the Eagles pass offense, like Saikwon Barkley is going to get it done, like they're going to feed him the rock. You probably
would benefit from screen passes. Again, they threw to him four time on why the egal I mean, I know why they didn't need to guy rush for two thousand yards, but they don't really throw to him a bunch. I think I have a lot of short line stuff because there is something in that pass offense that aj Brown has been telling us that just doesn't work like that. So that's the most glaring hole with it. So you say, like,
you know, what's the importance of pass matchups. I think they give us a baseline, but I think the recency is probably something that I'm hyper focused on, and I think the Eagles are going to score some points. They're going to do it on the ground. But at the same time, the Commanders have kept pace and that's like the most important thing to me is they have kept pace in games a lot, and the passing game is going to be a big, huge focal point for it.
So I'm not sure I can give a full answer, like I think it's important, but it also isn't like the be all end all, if you know, the Eagles were on some big crazy tear, which I really don't think they are.
Eric saying, what's your prediction for this one.
I'm going with Brian Robinson's going to rush for over thirty five and a half rushing yards. So his prop was around this number last week and he totally smashed it into smithereens, and I liked the under and I was quickly proven wrong by Brian Robinson. So he's been over this number in three of his last six games, so fifty to fifty hit rate. But the Eagles defense talked about the pass defense a little bit they lost
na Kobe Dean a couple of weeks back. He didn't play in this game against the rams Kyan Williams rushed for over one hundred and six over one hundred yards one hundred and six rushing yards. So I think that the Commanders they do want to run. The football established to run, and I think that you can run a little bit on this Eagles defense. Last four running necks the Eagles of face have gone over their rushing yards projection. He was effective in the first time that they played.
He rushed for sixty three yards in the first matchup. The second matchup he was limited to just twenty four. But if I'm going to get a middling number, that's more around forty five rushing yards, right between sixty three and twenty four. But the prop is at thirty five and a half rushing yards. So I then after last week, I thought this number was going to be much higher, anticipating it to be much bigger, but it's still really low at thirty five and a half rushing yards. So
I think the low bar for him the pass. He's already done it against his Eagles defense once before, and I think it's gonna be extra motivated because if you recall in the match the last time he faced at Philly, that's when he had two fumbles. So he had a really bad game the last time he played Philly. But with the know Nikobe Dean, you know defense, I think that they can run on a little bit without Nikobe Dean. Like I said, I like taking the over on Brian Robinson.
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right here on the podcast. If you're watching on YouTube, be sure to subscribe and turn on those notifications so you can be alerted when new episodes are up and to claim your prize. All right on the eagle side of this one, Welsh, what do you got?
All right? I think the biggest struggle with Jalen Hurts has been the passing game, so they are going to run, but you're going to see plenty of opportunities where he is going to drop back and then he is going to take the ball and run it himself. So thirty two rushing yards is the marker for Jalen Hurts here versus the fifty two or fifty three that Jaden Daniels has already got. Now. Washington in general has actually been a little bit more stout as far as stopping quarterbacks
from running. But they're implying I believe it's like eight carries for Jalen Hurts right now, and he went over this number thirty two point five in both matchups against Washington, so a fair point. It comes back to, like how much you care about previous matchups and the health of defenses and stuff. But he has done this before. Jalen Hurts also has had a longest rush. I thought this was interesting. He's had a longest rush of twenty two or more yards in four of his last five games,
So just throwing this out to you as well. His longest rush prop if you're looking at the market, is eleven and a half right now. Since Week five, he has only one. I'm looking at it. Oh yeah yeah. Since week five, he has only one game passing more than thirty times a game. I saw my passing marker and I got confused, but that was one of my selling points. He is not throwing the ball since week five, only third over thirty passes. Once he is running, he
is running the ball. He has not had massive, massive confidence in first read stuff. That aj Brown thing hasn't worked Alas Goddard has really looked well in the playoffs. He kind of gets a big play every single game. But he is going to take this down. He's gonna run it. I probably should look at what the pass attempts are because I want to go on the under. I'm going to go with the rushing yard Zoe Jalen hurts over thirty two point five and just pay attention to that longest rush as well.
What do you think ericson?
Well, the passing attempts is twenty four and a half, which he has hit Is.
It really twenty four and a half.
In two of his last ten games? That's that was actually I was thinking about making it out my prediction. Actually what under the throw for under twenty four and a half passing attempts. It's only moved one from last week was at twenty five and a half. But so my only reservation with this one, I'm afraid of his knee injury, which he is not.
He hasn't said.
I mean, he didn't run nearly as much after he got his knee. Bang, I'm gonna had the forty four rushing yard touchdown to start the game, and then I did feel like we didn't see him run as much and he didn't seem like he was very mobile. So that's my only concern, is I mean, so you're not concerned about the kne injury at all.
Of course you should be, and that's why the implied number is lower. But he is still running regardless. I mean, he hit seventy thirty six. He has hit this in five straight games. He has gone under He.
Was healthy during though, That's what I mean. That's like, that's what I mean. But he did it last week. Yeah, but he did it before he injured his knee. Like that's that's what I'm trying to get Like, that's what I'm trying to get at here, Like I'm concerned about what if he just doesn't run at all? Because he can't because his knees banged up. Like, that's my cause again going back to what did the past matchups matter?
None of these past matchups he had a banged up knee, Like, that's that's my concern.
He's had under seven rush attempts once this entire year, and it was against Washington where he went over this number as well, So fair point. The knee definitely is in play, but he's still moving, he's still running well.
To your point, you mentioned the longest rush, I feel like I like that more. Yeah, he doesn't necessarily need to run as much, but it's like, hey, I see an open I gotta take it. I know my knee hurts, but I gotta get this first down, and he gets the eleven and a half and then you're in and out, like to kind of like to have a gentleman's agreement here.
I like that particular play on it, just so like I take away the risk of, well, he's only going to rush like three times or four times because he's concerned about his knees swelling up or something along those.
So here's a prediction he'll have thirty rushing yards, but of a fifteen rush and worm and worm on the next show will go well. Welsh was spiritually correct when he says a fifteen rush, but he didn't get the yards. So I will be spiritually correct at.
Least ericson what's your prediction?
All right? And so just so I'm not just bashing on we Welsh's Eagles pick, I also don't love mine. Really what I'm looking back at it right now. AJ Brown over four and a half receptions. Now this one is at plus money. So it's more of a bold prediction because obviously the Eagles passing game has not been effective over the last couple of weeks. But AJ Brown last we had seven targets, had a thirty five percent target share. A last it was only two catches for
fourteen yards. He had four targets in the first half. He also dropped two of his seven targets, So again a bit of a more of an outlier performance of what we've seen from AJ Brown over the entire season. But look, if they're ever going to get this passing game going, I think it is going to be through AJ Brown. Like again, going back to the target share
last week, thirty five percent. This is one of the lowest we've ever seen his like receptions prop down at four and a half, so at plus money odds, I do kind of think that's kind of interesting. If they're going to have to pass in this game, I think is going to be through aj Brown. But yeah, so we'll see again. If I'm going to pick any of my picks to bust, it's going to be this one.
But hey, I've been trying to bake all the right picks the last couple weeks and I've been over so maybe picking one that I'm not so confident we'll actually hit. So Welsh rip me a part.
No, I mean not like it's great odds. Like if if you're looking from like an odds standpoint, you get plus money on that. I like it. It's just like we said before. I don't I don't think Jalen Hurts trust in his passing game. I don't think the offense trust in his passing game. There have been matchups, like with teams historically that you would pass about and it just doesn't continue to happen. But I mean we're on conflicting sites. The other thing I want to pointed back,
but we go back to my Jalen Hurts. If I remember correctly, didn't the first playoff of him like with the knee injury, wasn't didn't he run for a first down? Wasn't like eleven or twelve yards like on one of the first players that injury.
No that he did twelve yard rush?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, no yard rush area. Yeah. If I were looking for great odds, Eagles bet, and I think the Eagles are going to play really well in this game, that would be one of my favorites. Why wouldn't we do Secon one Barkley if I remember correctly looking yesterday, one hundred and thirty. Yes, rushing yards is the rushing yard prop like, you don't mess with that type of stuff. It's like twenty one or twenty two carries. You're not
messing with that stuff. And you want to be involved in saquony, can't you tell you can't do any of that stuff. So if I think the Eagles are going to be successful in this game, it is going to be them getting the ball to aj Brown, probably screen passing to AJ Brown a couple of times, let him do some stuff in some open field. So that's why
I think this one would be successful. I'm not as much on the Eagles, and I'm super bearish on their passing game in general, But I still think this can hit and the and Jalen Hurts could go under his past attempt, So I don't I don't think this is like a horrible one at all. Like that's a receiver I wo'd want to bet on.
I can't believe that Sego Markley's rushing pop is on.
It's one hundred and thirty is it still? It was one hundred and thirty yards When I looked at us, like, oh, I wonder this would be fun to see it.
And we're talking about this, I'm thinking about last week when we didn't learn our last time about Travis, Like should we just be taking the over?
I was just about like like yes, if I was like forced to pick aside, I would pick the over.
What would the all two hundred be? I want to see what the all one friend of the rust for two hundred yards?
Again, you could get three to one that he's going to go over two hundred yards.
That's ridiculous.
I'd aj Brown just to know. He has not hit the over on four and a half receptions since Week sixteen, that way against the Commanders.
So yeah, he also got like eighteen targets from Kenny Pickett, and I think that he almost like I'm honestly afraid that he could get more pass interferences than catches in this game if Latimore is on him, because Latimer like was flagging him left and right back in week sixteen.
So that's the next big bet, by the way, for the market. So they need to go receptions plus pis and just be like, you know, six and a half, just add two on each. That's the next big I might be like a price pick.
We should we should normalize defensive pass interference calls as fantasy points. Diould get a point I've always.
Got, like like should it be like you get half the points.
Or or I think I half a point where I think you should get something right if you get held on it, what could be a seventy yard touchdown? I got like you did your you did all your job, man, like it's not your fault that the guy drew the flag, like and.
Yeah, but I mean the time too, if you if if it's based on if you did your job, Like if a quarterback throws a perfect pass and it's dropped, does he get half the passing yards that he should have gotten like he did his job.
I mean, you're turning into like air yards. You just you just want like a normal yard.
What do you think is should be worth more points in fantasy? A oh, I caught this pass behind line of scrimmage from minus five yards or I drew a seventy yard past interference call.
I mean I agree one of those is one of.
Those is worth way more points. It is actually scores fantasy points, and one of them doesn't.
I agree, but it but like coming back to it, aren't you kind of saying like, okay, let's just put air yards as the yard marker in fantasy instead of actual receiving yards.
Well, no, because if you drop a ball, you don't get points.
I'm just like just.
On just on flags because like you could have caught it.
Did the p I account for air yards?
Yes, I think it does, but it depends on I know some systems. It depends on if you filter penalties or not penalties. Same thing with targets, Like some systems don't account for it. I do.
I do think it's a slippery slope to be like you did everything right, because like I mean, even a receiver like if you break off a really clean route and the quarterback looks the other direction, the receiver did everything right, Like.
Hey, yeah, that sucks.
I do, but I'm saying I think it it's like a betting mark could just being like six point five receptions plus p. I like, that's how for fantasy. I don't know, you would have to figure something out. I think betting it's actually like it's the other thing.
Two is they sometimes they call pass interference and I'm like, I don't think that guy was gonna catch that ball anyway. Like I know, they specifically have a rule where if they deem it to be uncatchable, they don't. You know, you're not supposed to call it, but like sometimes they call it, and I find myself thinking, I'm really confident he wasn't going to catch that, so he wasn't going to get those points anyway. So I think it's too much of a gray area.
I'd be the fun thing. I'd be fun.
I like the idea. And you know what, Eric saoning, if you want to commission a league like that, I will join it.
You only get points from.
Oh the penalty penalties only. That actually would be super fun. All right, Who's betting this game. The line has actually moved earlier I mentioned five and a half, it's six on DraftKings Eagles of course laying the six at home, and I believe the total has not moved. It's still, like I said before, the same as the other matchup forty seven and a half Welsh. What side do you like on those?
I am going to play Washington money line, so obviously, like my spiritual play is plus six for Washington. But would I would go straight on to Washington. I just listen, Eagles can be a dominant team. Jalen Hurts just hasn't seemed right. I think you can definitely. You know, in playoff football, what are two things that win a run game? An established run game and a defense. And they absolutely
have that. They have that to the fullest degree. But they just don't have that passing game, and I'm worried that's going to hold them back with a team like Washington that has been hyper aggressive, They're gonna leave it all out on the field. Jenden Daniels, I really do think is a special quarterback, and I think this guy is going to show out again. You're not going to see that crazy bad rookie play. You're gonna see zach
Ertz heavily involved in this. I do worry about them kind of defensively, and so you're safe for play would obviously be you know, playing like Washington on a teaser or just straight up plus six. But I'm I'm gonna just go out here for our predictions and say Washing is gonna move on big plus money here against an Eagles team that I'll shut up if they Jalen Urchlows for three hundred yards and everything like that, won't be shocked when they play really well and that run game
in defense gets them there. Because again we talked about those Trent dil for Matt Hasselbeck type teams that you just need a quarterback to do just enough for the rest to work. That definitely could be in play for this team. But I think I think Washington is on a hot streak right now, and I'm gonna bet on Jaye Daniels.
Plus two thirty. I believe he is the line on on DraftKings for Commander's money line ericson how are you approaching this one from the team perspective?
You see that cockle on my wings, Baby fly Eagles Fly I'm taking the Eagles. I'm taking the guy that has one hundred and thirty one yard rushing prop to be moved up.
It went up. It's crazy.
He's gonna run all over the Commanders cannot stop. I mean, if Jamier Gibbs had gotten ten more carries he would have rushed for Did he rush for two hundred yards? I don't know, he was way up there. They can't stop the run. So I get that Hurts is concerning, and that's kind of like the headline. So why is the line moving in favor of the Eagles, Because it's been a problem all year long, the Eagles passing game. But here's the thing, it hasn't mattered because their defense
is elite and their rushing game is unstoppable. In my opinion, we have a season with Saquon Barkley. Yes, especially Jayden Daniels season has been as a rookie quarterback, tremendous. What Sequen Barkley is doing at the running back position is I don't even know what the right adjective is to describe it, because you're not even we're not even talking about Derek Henry when he rushed for two thousand yards overall, when you include the postseason, we're not even talking about
Jamar Chase. He hat the triple crown, and he's gonna get zero Offensive Player of the Year votes because of Saquon Barkley, Like he is truly breaking the game at the running back position, which in twenty twenty five, I don't think anybody really could have projected.
So do you agree with that? By the way, like that it should be such a blo I kind of think Jamar Chase should get I don't think he will look a triple im more impressive to me than at two thousand yards seas it's rarer.
But just the way that the offense is with Markley, because I mean, this isn't he's doing like two it's like two hundred rushing yards like routine. It's one hundred one rushing yard Probably.
There, I would vote for saquad and an Offensive Player of the Year. I just feel like I want to give credit to Jamar because I do too.
But but I think back on and I'm like, if I was a voter, I would vote for Sae. Yeah, Like, and I think everyone else has come like how can we not give Chase any credit for what he did? Or Derrek Henry any credit because Sequon is doing what he is doing at such an extreme level that I mean, this is one of the greatest running back seasons I've ever seen ever, maybe the best, I don't know.
So who do you guys want to see as a Super Bowl matchup now that we're down for? What matchup are you rooting for? And what team you know, really are you rooting for, because obviously our teams are no longer play.
I I'll start. I wanted to be the Chiefs and Eagles because I think that would be the best game. I think if the Commanders get to the Super Bowl, I am very concerned that they would just get destroyed because that's my magas are because I think their defense is not is not good against Mahomes, against Josh.
Allen, hands down, the worst defense in the would be in.
Yeah, the last Yeah, definitely, I think they're the worst unit that's remaining. Maybe the Eagles passing game. I don't know, but I think it'd be because then these teams have played each other before Super Bowl rematch. And the thing about the Chiefs is e don't complains all they was playing close games, So you know what will be a close game if Kansas City is playing in the Super Bowl,
so uh, that's what I will be. And I also have a ticket for the Eagles to win the NSC, so that would make me happy.
Oh so you're in it. Yeah, I think the Eagles and Chiefs is probably the best. I'm indifferent, like if someone's like, oh, well you built okay, I don't care, Like I'm just indifferent about it. I think they're all going to be great. I think, like what you're saying, you're worried the Commanders are getting blown out, It really don't. I think that offense, I think Daniels is going to keep them into every single game, but that that defense
is like, bar none the worst. I kind of feel like maybe they would match up best against the Bills. If you were to ask the question, what's the best path for the Commanders to win the Super Bowl Michael Bills, I might say Bills versus Commanders would be good there, but best, like on paper, game is probably going to
be the Eagles and Chiefs. There's just still a part of me that's like, I don't know, man, Like I'd love to see the Eagles just play absolutely dominant ball this week to not think that the Chiefs were going to come in and just win again because we're all kind of and a Jefs fans aren't. I'm kind of tired of it, But they're also they're still the best, so I think it's a win win no matter what.
I think. Commanders Bills would probably shiver. It would probably similar to the Diamondbacks and Rangers going into the World Series, where all the all the the commissioners and everything are like ooh, like that's not great. I'm not sure the Commanders and Bills would be their most favorite matchup from a selling and marketing standpoint.
I've heard for the Eagles, my brother in law's an Eagles fan his Soule family, and he's raising my nephews to be Eagles fans, So I would you know, obviously I would pick the raven over them if it was head to head, but with the Ravens no longer an option, I'm pulling for them really for no other reason than that.
And on the other side, like I am, I guess rooting for the Chiefs just because what's one more Super Bowl from Mahomes Like he already has a bunch, He's gonna get more like I just I would rather that happen than another one of these AFC quarterbacks, you know, just selfishly get one before Lamar does. But yeah, Eagles, Chiefs, I think is what I'm rooting forward With the Eagles pulling out on top.
Of one pretty much anybody but Bills. It sounds like you're saying you're not You're not.
Really, Bills would be last on my list strictly from a selfish fan of the Ravens and Lamar perspective. From a casual ignoring that bias perspective, Bills might be at the top of my list. Like, but so, I don't, you know, disparage anybody who has them on top of their list of their remaining teams. It's definitely just a you know, irrational fandom thing for me. But but yeah, Eagles is the easy one because the family rooting for him,
for them, you know, Chiefs. I don't want the Chiefs to win, but I guess I want them to make the Super Bowl and then lose to whoever they're facing. So we'll see, we'll see how it plays out. I love Championship Sunday. I just seeing teams punch their ticket to the Super Bowl is almost more kind of cool and validating than seeing them in the Super Bowl, at least in my experience. So yeah, I'm really excited for Sunday. Going to be some fun games for Welsh and ericson
I'm Ryan warmly thanks everybody for tuning in. We'll be back in a couple of weeks for our prediction show for the Super Bowl. We'll see then. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Football podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple podcasts at Fantasypros dot com, slash review or on Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros.