Playing for keeps, let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. To this b Joey p Joe Pizapia, and today we're talking about.
The keeper league targets.
We're talking about leagues that are starting up that have keepers involved. Some are one, some are ten, some are more, some are less. But we're gonna talk about some of our favorite targets. If you were in one of those drafts this year, that's just starting up guys in some of the later rounds and some of the early rounds too that we want to target, or if you're in those salary cap drafts, the one you want to spend some money on or maybe get some nice discounts on
later on. The Welsh of course, is here to help me figure it all out.
And don't forget.
If you've got drafts coming up, make sure you use your draft simulator because it's right here.
Right now.
The MLB Draft Wizard is open for business here at Fantasy Pros. So go to fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard and you could start your mock drafts. You can do it in ten minutes. Go through undo. I just did one right before here. Actually I did two. I got a B plus on one and I'm an over so I went to another one got an A plus on the second one. So clearly my strategy is starting to take shape here. But you got to get your strategy straight before you get into the twenty twenty three season.
You could do that fantasypros dot Com slash Draft Wizard again. Go get your draft on Welsh while you start off with one of your guys on your top ten list of keeper league targets for twenty twenty three.
I also just want to add real quick that not only can you draft and use the Draft Wizard, but you can connect them to your own leagues, which I just did last week, and it is incredibly invaluable. When you even if you're drafting somewhere else, you connect it. You get the projections, you get us who we hate you, we love you, You get all the incredibly fun information
even if you're not drafting on Fantasy Pro. So I just want to point that out because it is one of the most fun tools to use in the offseason, is a draft wizard. And it is not just one thing. It is many things. Okay, we're talking about keeper buys. This one is weird because it doesn't feel like this would be a guy that would be a keyper buye. But mister Mike Mayer is going to love me for it on Fantasy Pros, and I'm a big buy in on this guy. My number ten as far as keeper
pickups this year, going with Ryan Mountcastle. Ray Mountcastle, by the way, is only twenty five years old. He'll start the season as a twenty six year old. Last two seasons, he's put up fifty five homers and an average of eighty seven RBI. In that time, he's hit a round two fifty with a couple stolen bases that have been thrown in. But a couple of things I've really loved on him over this past season. Expected slug rate this past year was the eighth best in the league at
five oh nine. Eighth best. That also went with a huge increase from his batting average was expected batting average a two point fifty batting average with a two seventy seven expected batting average. Then on top of it, this isn't a one for one because they did change the dimensions and this might just be a part of Orioles. In general, we had the third biggest home run to expected home run differential in the league last year of qualif fight batters with an over five home run differential
five homers. He had twenty two this past year. That would be twenty seven homers. And you put all of that together with really good, strong, hard hit numbers an offense that is trying to rebuild a team that is building itself back up. I have a hard time not buying into a post one hundred player who's under twenty seven years old. He's got a ton of underline analytics in his favor in an expected home run ratio that
just looks like it's going to pop back up. I think Ryan Mountcastle is a nice, good, cheap option, even if he's not your first baseman, he's your corner infielder and he just qualifies on that young keeper range.
So give me Ryan Mountcastle, all right, number ten for me on my list. Typically, I'm a little antsy when it comes to catchers. Francisco Alvarez just missed this list for me because he hasn't quite proven it yet.
In the show.
Got a little cup of coffee, but not enough to really know yet.
It's more of a dynasty league selection. But instead I'm.
Looking at Adlie Ruschman, catcher for the Baltimore Orioles. Last year thirteen home runs, forty two. He's hit two and fifty four for the Baltimore Oriols. If you'll get the minor league numbers of one hundred and eighty games, thirty dingers, one hundred and eleven RBI, hit two eighty one, three ninety OVP, forty seven slogging practically a three four to five guy. Everybody knows I love the three four to five guys. He's gonna be twenty five years old this year.
He's in a better ballpark situation now that you know they've kind of made some adjustments last year where I think that it's going to look. I know it took away for some and I know the pitchers in some situations were very pleased. We saw the Orioles make a run last year. But I think Addley Rutchmand's one of these special players where it doesn't matter what the ballpark is like. You go back and look at him in college. I remember watching them at Oregon State. The guy just
absolutely mash. I mean, he was just unbelievable. He's a first rate guy too, and I think that stuff matters when you look at a keepers, like guys who are going to be leaders of teams, guys who are going to be out there. Typically with the catchers, you're worried about them giving up some of the offense to learn the pitching staff. I think we got some of that adjustment last year. I think this year it's going forward now.
Adley Rutchman's going to be a superstar in the major leagues, and a catcher just not a lot of great options there. There's a few, not a lot of great ones. So when keeper leagues, I think Rushman's were of those guys who was number nine on your list.
Welsh, Well, I'm going to go with the pitcher. There's a guy that I've talked up a little bit over this offseason. It's Nicolodolo. First half last year and only about twenty six innings. It really took up a big portion of what he lacked in success. He had a five to eight one ERA. He was pitching to batters four hundred babbit four thirty five babbitb and over three hundred batting average in the second half, which equated to
essentially three fourths of his season. He had a two nine to two ERA batters had an under three hundred BAB and a two hundred batting average overall. What's interesting about him there are twenty pitchers. If we're looking at Steamer, I want to point out the bat and the bat X is now out and these numbers look lower. But Steamer had projected two hundred strikeout pitchers. There were twenty of them this year. I believe the bat has around fourteen.
There were only two pitchers that were outside the top ten, top one hundred in overall eightp that had those two hundred strikeouts. Those teammates and Nickelodolo. The difference Nickelodolo used ten percent or more on pitches compared to a two pitch pitcher. That Hunter Green is ten percent or more on four different pitches. For Nicolodolo, Green had a really great twenty eight percent whiff rate on his slider last
year with a forty percent usage. Lodolo on his curve, which he used thirty percent of the time, had a forty six percent whiff rate, almost the exact same k percentage and a full mile per hour less on his ev Nickelodolo. I think he's just really prime for a big breakout. He's more of a control pitcher where a
hunter Green's little bit more of a power pitcher. He's also a big analytics guy Niicolodolo outside the top one hundred overall, a young pitcher on maybe not a great team in a bad pitcher environment all things to consider, think makes Green more volatile. And I'm a Nickelodolo guy, so he's someone I'd be buying in on Dynasty and even keeper leagues who doesn't cost especially in keeper is not going to probably cost you top one hundred.
Here's a sneaky guy in keeper leagues too.
I don't think it's going to cost you as much as you might think at twenty three years old last year for the leveland and almost at Indians Nope, Guardians, Oh my goodness, Collars season without saying it. And this is what happens, you know, when you're still coming off of football, your mind is still fuzzy. Seventeen homers, twenty steals. I think in roatal leagues Andres Jimenez is a guy that people are just really sort of coming around on.
Certainly a breakout year last year he's so young still, he's gonna have that job for the foreseeable future. He's in a good situation there. I think that the Guardians did well here in this trade when they gave up Francisco Lindor. Having watched him come up through the Mets system, you know, I saw a lot of Jimenez. It was just whether or not you would grow into any power. And I think last year flashing that for sixty six lugging that was a big positive for him, and two
ninety seven batting average was terrific. I mean, this is a guy who's gonna hit for batting average, hit for power, give him soul bases in roatal leagues. He might be one of the best return on investments in keeper leagues right now. So I like the adp in those situations, and I like the player. I think he's got maybe another year, but even if he just becomes this guy, this guy's pretty good to keep, especially in those deeper
keeper leagues. All right, Welsh, who is number eight for you on your list of twenty twenty three keeper league targets.
Well, it's another one of these young guys. It's really interesting and redraft. He comes at a cheaper cost. He's going to be a little bit more expensive in keeper leagues, but you know what, it might not tick up to a crazy degree. Go with Vinnie Pasquinino with the Kansas City Royals is one of those guys that's on a little ho home of a team overall offensively that I don't think really helps. But you know, Vinnie was pull heavy and the power wasn't insane and about three hundred
plate appearances he had ten overall. But we need to talk about those home run to expected home run differentials. Mount Castle's number three. Paus Quentino number four was number four in the league ten homers with an expected fourteen point eight on that home run total. You pair that with an expected batting average that was within right on his overall batting average two ninety five, batting average two eighty nine expected, no big difference how to higher x
slug slug of four fifty and almost four. It was four to seventy six on his expect slug, which you've gotta love. And overall when you just take a look at him, there's big EV numbers. Had almost one hundred and thirteen max EV overall, I think a lot is working in favor of a guy that doesn't strike out. A whole bunch is going to hit for power that doesn't show up quite yet. A lot of underlining things
work in favor of it. And if you do have a Royals team that tries to manufacture and you get modesty back in there, they're running a little bit more. It's more RBI opportunity, even though they kind of stink overall. Minny Pascuatino doesn't he walks, he doesn't strike out, He makes lots of contact, and there's power that's gonna come in there. A little Italian breakfast there for you, Joe, Minni pass.
Have a good Italian breakfast.
Can't get enough little espresso, you know, maybe a biscothy, very nice biscoti.
Yeah, what are you Bisconti? I don't I don't know what biscuit? Well, a biscuit, you like a biscuit.
Bisconti, You don't know what bisconti is.
Oh my goodness, after the show, I'm gonna have to send you a whole case. Uh it's a you dunk him in the coffee. It's like this Italian little biscuit cookie thing. And it's kind of shaped almost like a long you ish kind of thing in this chocolate. There's different one. I mean, we're gonna have to educate you on some of the Italians.
Maybe Veny can educate men.
You can Wander Franco by low Okay, geez, can we can? We not overreact. He's barely old enough to drink. I mean, twenty two years old here. And I know last year was disappointing. I was disappointed. I was expecting big things. I was expecting a power surge. It didn't happen. Injury happened instead. But there's a reason why the Rays committed so much money to this player. He is a special player. He is still just twenty two years old. In the minor leagues, he hit three thirty five with a four
hundred OBP over two hundred and twenty four games. And if you combine and look at the last two seasons, you know he's got one hundred and fifty games there, thirteen home run, seventy two RBI, ten steals, two eighty two batting average.
That's something to build on.
I mean, I just don't think we're being fair to the Wander Franco evaluation system yet.
And Wander Franco.
Maybe he'll never be a forty home run guy, but I do think at some point he's going to be a twenty five to thirty home run guy, and I think it's gonna be sooner than you realize. And I think you're in the unique position to buy low almost in keeper leagues on him for the first time and maybe the last time you're gonna be able to do that. Certainly the last couple years he was very hyped. He should be hyped. He's that good of a player. The Rays are the raised and they're always gonna have some
deficits there offensively. But I think for me, Wander Franco is that perfect price this year to buy low in these keeper league drafts on him, or if you're in a keeper league, buy low on him and just enjoy this player for the next decade, because I think he's gonna be an absolute star. And we're just getting started still with Wander Franco. Let's not overreact to a down
and disappointing year. All right, Next on the list here, that's my number eight, number seven for you, your keeper league target for twenty twenty three.
So I'm gonna jump up the board now. This doesn't necessarily have to be a board where we're up at the top and then we down to the top guys. A draft overall necessarily not mine. This is kind of ranking and how I'm approaching this. So I'm going to jump up the board to a definitely a higher ADP player, but in a keeper league, I don't know if there's a priority, and I think there's still some value to be had at third base, and I'm gonna go with
Austin Riley. And I know you're thinking to yourself, like, well, okay, Austin Riley might be a second round player. Keeper leaks you start to get some of the young guys in there that might push down. If you're talking about dynasty, Austin Riley is a player that actually could push into the third round in some places because he doesn't steal bases. And I think there's an overall question. I think people
overall have maybe in the power. My point here is Austin Riley is the type of guy that I think can still push higher and can you maybe get you into a first round overall value, That's what I still think is on the table, especially if he pushes back a little bit and Austin Riley this past year had the eighth best slug percentage in the league or number, and he had the six best expected x slug. I mean, that's crazy, that's crazy to improve off of that, though,
those power numbers are absolutely real. Seventy one homers over the last two years. His RBIs ticked down a little bit, his strikeout numbers came down, but his batting average came off. He was a three hundred hitter the year before he ticked down to two seventy three. And I think there's some value. I would not be surprised if Austin Riley pushed forty homers this year and pushes up one hundred hundred. He's more of a fat four category player, maybe three.
But I would buy in on keeper leagues because he's still really young. And this is a player that could be a first run overall talent if you can get him in the late second or third round.
Yeah.
And some of these guys are going to talk about today that obviously the prices are going to vary. We're going to talk about the premium guys and the reason why you want to pay for some of them. And we're talking about some guys in the middle, and some of the guys we just mentioned too, Pas Galentino probably going a little later in drafts. There still a little unknown, still divisiveness there on the opinion Wander Franco kind of
coming off a down year. Lots of different evaluations of a lot of these players, and again we're trying to give you a range, you know exactly, you know how you're can to approach some of these drafts. And look, we're gonna talk about some big time players and why they're still worth that big investment.
And Franco's fascinating. By the way, it's a time for another conversation we could have, but Fronco is ultimately fascinating because I'm not sure there's a player in Keeper and dynasty formats that has a wider range of valuation than Wander Franco anywhere from the top twenty five down to
maybe his redraft value, which is in the nineties. So there is a wide, wide spectrum of outcomes for him as far as how people value him, and that's what makes him really intriguing, especially if you're in a league where that value is quite a bit lower and someone's in the sixties or seventies is kind of given up because the counting stats will never catch up, and I agree with you, I don't think that's necessarily the case.
And for me, I'm trying to look for guys too, who have proven something in the major leagues already. Like these are guys that you know, again, not pure minor league talent, guys, guys who have shown you at least something here in the major league level. And one guy's shown you a lot so far, and he's still just
twenty five years old. Again, a lot of these guys and stay in that twenty six and under range too, so I know, like the prime of their career is still ahead of them, which is the twenty eight to thirty one years that's the prime typically of these players.
So Kyle Tucker.
Hasn't hit the prime yet, but he's got two back to back thirty home run seasons with ninety plus rebies. He's gonna steal bases twenty five last year. The batting average did take a tumble year over here.
That's fine. But if there's one guy too, along with.
Corey Seeger, where the shift change is going to help him, it's gonna be Kyle Tucker back to back years playing over one hundred and forty games as well. You know, he plays in a go ballpark surrounded by good lineup support. There's a lot to like here with Kyle Tucker. And this is a player too that is going to continue, I think, to even get better. But you've seen, my goodness,
what a high ceiling he has. There might be another gear in Kyle Tucker where you get all the high batting average, you get all of the thirty plus homers, you get fifteen steals, you get everything in there in one season all together. I think it's very possible. I think it's probably coming very quickly. So he's one of these guys that I think is starting to you know, like he's a first round talent in any redraft leagues already.
But we're talking about salary cap leagues and issues where we're gonna look at how much you want to pay for a player. This is the guy who's already shown you what he is and I think the best is still yet to come with him, which is huge. And I think Kyle Tucker is in a good spot right here at twenty six years old, to be a great investment where you might even overpay to get him. What do you think about Kyle Tucker Welsh?
Yeah, I'm into this. I mean, actually this really fascinating debate. Just the other day we were talking about Mookie bats versus Kyle Tucker, and that's the range that he's living in right now. Stolen bases, we can question how real they're going to be, but the powers there, the hit tools there were just one of those guys too that just you look and you're just like, why are you
not hitting for more average? And kind of like Austin Riley, I also kind of think people are just not caught up on like the true value that he holds in keeper leagues, especially with top end power and speed. So yeah, I'm with that. I'm pretty aggressive on him. He's a top ten and no doubt, so anytime you can get him outside of that, whether it's dynasty keeper, that's another thing to point out as well. Dynasty's and keepers are
not necessarily valued in the same way. That's something I had to adjust because I do a huge top four hundred dynasty list, but keepers they're all not created equal because you could be keeping two or three, or five or ten. So there's so many different ways to look at it, so proximity is more important. And that's also why we're not sitting here talking about Ellie Day, La Cruz or Jackson Curio in these keeper formats, because there's just so many different ways you can go right.
And when you're talking with a player like Moogi Bets, he's gonna be thirty this year, Kyle Tucker, I'd rather have Kyle Tucker the Moogie Bets, even if the stolen base has never reached Moogie Bets levels or sustainability. That's why I prefer Kyle Tucker because I think you know, when you give me five extra years on a guy, it's a no brainer. Let's take a quick break in
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That's fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros for your chance to win that official signed Vladimir Guerrero Junior Jersey fan Tracks, the home of Fantasy sports. And now back to the action. Next guy on the list for you? Number six?
Who is it?
Number six? I'm gonna go with the exact opposite of everything we just talked about. I'm gonna go with a player that has very little track record, but he's a player that in a keeper format he still is prospect eligible. But he's a player that you're gonna want to get. And you know his price is a little bit higher right now in a redraft, which pushes it up, but
there is top two round upside. I'm talking about Corbyn Carroll with my Arizona Diamondbacks, and Corbyn Carroll is coming off of a phenomenal Minor league season where he had twenty eight home runs. I got to go through because he had some complex level time here. He had twenty eight homers between complex and the major leagues. And I think there's a lot of questions that people have on him overall about like where is this power going to
come from? Because he looks like a smaller guy. One thing I have cited multiple times Corman Carroll in his entire minor league since in twenty nineteen, has only once had an ISO under two hundred. So I want you to think about that ISO a measure of like overall power, and it has only been under two hundred once and that was that rookie ball as an eighteen year old in twenty nineteen. Since then, not a single level has it ever been under that. It's not crazy strikeout numbers.
It's always been a good batting average, and it's elite speed. It is top one percent in the overall in the league for speed totals. And you look at projections, listen, Steamer, I think is more aggressive twenty homers nineteen stolen bases. The bat X kind of kills them a little bit down to twelve homers and sixteen stolen bases. I think you can make arguments across the board on where the power is going to be. But here's what I know.
Everybody is understelling the speed. The speed numbers will beat every projection system this year. If he leads off for the Diamondbacks even half the time lefties and righty's, he's gonna have some good run totals. They are going to manufacture runs. And I am a believer in Corman Carroll. He costs a little bit more in all formats, but I think the upside in the return. I don't want to do the old Bobby Wit stuff, but I'm just saying thirty stolen bases is in my mind, and we
might have fifteen to twenty homers. And there's a similar player that put those numbers up last year.
Sure was Carol's a guy on my radar two. Gonna talk more about him later in the week, but twenty twenty three rookie of the Year in National League should be top of the board guy in my opinion, like that's you know, if you're going to be making those wagers right now, like that's the guy you're looking at.
I think one of them anyway.
But another great point too about just because a small player doesn't me can't hit for power. I mean, doesn't Betroit hit for power. Hoseel two a hit for power.
Miki yeah, MOOKI. Actually, I've always been very intrigued. I never went and did this. I was going to do this a while back. I wanted to do this big minor league comparison on Corvin Carroll and Mookie Bets. I mean, he is smaller than Mooki at this point, but MOOKI never built into some big, crazy, big physical specimen or anything like that. And Corban Carroll's completely transformed his body. And this is a guy that for his size is jacked.
Is very smart analytical. I really believe in the hit tool. I worry about slumps that are going to go on and how he's gonna adjust, but he's done it at every stop of his minor league career.
Yeah. Next guy on my list is actually the oldest guy on my list. Old Man Show. Heyo Tommy at twenty eight years old.
And that's kind of why he is not higher on the list, even though he is probably the best player in baseball, even though in most leagues he should be the guy. It's the pitcher and the hitter. There's also a huge risk in this because he's the pitcher and the hitter. It's the same thing we come through every single year with this player, which is if he has a pitching related injury, it takes him out most likely of being the hitter as well.
So this is the go.
Bigger, go home. But in the situations, I think, especially in the keeper leagues where you're limited to a three year window on a player, Otani you could argue is the number one because it is go bigger, go home. You can go win a couple years with Otani at that peak. You are in the peak of Otani right now. It's not going to get potentially better than this. I think you've seen the absolute top. If it does get better than this, that's unbelievable. But you're experiencing the prime
of Otani. And if you're in a keeper league that again has the limitations on it's one thing where you can keep the player forever, or you have the escalating contracts on them, or anyo situations. But if you're in one of those situations where it's just you know, you can keep the player three years and that's it, this is the time to go in on showey Otani because
you are getting a player in his prime. We're getting a pitcher and a hitter in those leagues specifically where you can use him as such.
It's a special talent and he's going to be playing.
Somewhere else other than LA and there's a good chance wherever that place is could be an even better environment for him potentially, because you know, Mike Trout just hasn't been around that much these last couple of years to play with him. Unfortunately, the rest of that team is very I would say, how do I put it nicely here?
With the Los Angeles Angels of Vanna, him and scrubs? Is that the best way to say it? Is that the best way to say it?
Yeah, it's a top party.
I guess it's total.
Yeah, it's like an auction valued stars and Suns and scrubs. It's like they spell their money on two spots and they're trying to make it up in other areas.
Yeah, and that's not going to work. But shoo Tani.
I mean, you know the talent, you know what we're talking about here, perennial MVP candidate. But look, the oldest player. For a reason I don't have him in the top five. It's because of the danger you still have with him. But you can't argue the next three year window for Showyotani. All right, let's go to your number five. We're in the top five, guys, Now things are getting exciting. Was your top five keeper League target of twenty twenty three?
Yeah, And the only thing I just want to add to that is I do try to think very much and keep her dynasty in three year windows. So I think It's why you can also give a little bit more of a leeway to even twenty nine to thirty year old players that they can push or ma tin value. Atani is one of those guys. I really think in that window.
When you're talking about, like, you know, Ronald Acunya, who's going to show up on our list here?
Yes, it's different.
You know, when you've got an extra five years potentially or four years on a player who's already shown you who's elite, it's no comparison, especially when you're trying to spend money on salary cap league on there.
I actually think an incredible debate is Akunya at his age and level right now versus Otwani in a daily moves one player between pitcher and hit or format like interesting that there's an ultimate debate that we're not going to have. But yeah, it's some other time. It may be some other time. My guy, I'm going to point out here is almost laughable to people who followed us all year last year because I'm going to tell you about O'Neill Cruz. Yes, O'Neill Cruz is on this list.
Because now we're not dealing with the insane expectations of a rookie coming up, and he's had some time and we actually saw some improvement on O'Neill cruise. Obviously a strikeout numbers overall, we're the biggest concern, almost thirty five percent. It was in the forties early on. It was a big worry. His batting average kind of struggled, but he improved a decent amount on the second half of the season. He hit two o four in the first half in
limited games. Second half, he ended up hitting two forty five. Still a few more bases. Power numbers came up. Projections pretty favorable across the board. Here was something I had put together and this is based on Steamer, just really quickly. Was based on Steamer's projection. They had him at twenty seven homers in eighteen stolen bases in alle hundred and thirty games of the two fifty batting average. Those are
insane numbers. Well, there's only three players that put up those type of numbers last year Kyle Tucker who went thirty twenty five, Jose Ramirez who went twenty nine to twenty and Julio Rodriguez who went twenty eight and twenty five. So you take those second half numbers. You take those projections and you're looking, what do all those guys have in common. I've said this before, first rounders the first round talent. So there's first round talent built in the
upside of Oneokruz. Now, if you want to get down to earth a little bit, the strikeout numbers are still a concern, but even the bat x still is projecting essentially as a twenty twenty guy twenty two homers, nineteen stolen bases under thirty k percentage, and an almost two to fifty batting average. Listen, if he hits two fifty, he's hitting thirty homers. He broke stat cast last year, the hardest hit ball ever, one hundred and twenty two
miles per hour. I think there are tons of warts in his game, but I do think O'Neill Cruz is going to be streaky with enough talent that he's going to put up ridiculous numbers. It's like old school Javier Baya's stuff, with maybe even less of a swing and miss in there. But the stolen base and the power numbers are real. The context of the team limits the runs in RBI. You should buy in on him. I would buy in on him, even if he's risky. It's outside the top forty or fifty in a lot of
places with first round potential. Those are the type of guys in keeper leagues I'm going to take a shot on. And that's why Oneil Cruz is on the list.
What a difference a year makes last year just trying to push people away from Monyo Cruz, this.
Year of pushing towards an Yeo Cruz. But I think you're right.
I think it was a much better circumstance now and a much better concept of how much he can give you this year as opposed to what he could give you last year, and projectability thirty twenty could be this year. It's very possible he could put that season together. It was unlikely he was going to do it last year, which is why that was my problem. We were kind of pushing away from him.
I mean also just pointing out the day it was like the day he debuted, he became the NL favorite for Rookie of the Year, which was like absurd to me.
You're not finish in the top two award. But he was not amidlanded it. He was not a brief well that happened sometimes. Number five on my list, and the only reason he's not top three is because he has had some injuries around the knee.
He is a bigger guy too.
Series wondering about how those guys are going to age sometimes, but Jordan Alvarez is that dude.
I mean, he is a special talent.
And depending on your league eligibility situations too, there's limitations here, and there are some concern whenever you have a younger player who's had a history of some knee issues early on, that doesn't always bode well for the bigger guy.
But we've seen plenty of big guys like.
David Ortiz play well into their late thirties and being extremely productive, So I think he is worth the risk. I think he's an incredible talent. Obviously, we all know he is. If you look at that one sixty two average for this guy, forty three home runs, one hundred and twenty five RBI already to ninety six, batting average nine to seventy three ops. I mean, it's just it's off the chart. He makes baseball look so damn easy. He's only twenty six years old too, so he's again
still a few ways away. From entering his prime. But I think when you get to the true prime of this player, you're looking at like a forty one to twenty kind of guy. Like that's how unbelievable. I think the ceiling of Alvarez is and we haven't even gotten there yet. I think we are just kind of getting teased a little bit. If you're asking me the early wager guy for leading the major leagues at home runs, for me, it's Alvarez. He's just got to play enough
games to do it, and I think he can. And look, I expect a little regression from Judge who hit sixty last year, like you can't get Yeah, you can't get a I hit in sixty on runs every year, at least, we don't think.
So we'll find out more.
But Alvarez to me again, yourson, he's not top three because of those little issues. I would put him right at number five though, because the bat is just too good to ignore.
Is he gonna steal the bases? No?
Is he gonna give me incredible power and everything else? I want to cross the board. Yes, that's good enough for me. I want him on the squad. Now we're getting into the top four here, very exciting stuff. Welsh, who's your number four guy and the keeper League targets for twenty twenty three.
Yeah, you won't like this one from previous conversations, but uh, Sean McClanahan. I'm very much on Sean McClanahan. My one of my favorite things about him, and I mentioned this before, was he had a dramatic change in his pitch mix and he ended up going from an eight percent change up to the second most thrown pitch of all pitches. And what's so great about that is it ended up pushing his slider, which he now has. Four pitches he throws over fifteen percent of the time, so it's a
really good mix. Four pitches have an over forty four percent with rate, one of those being the change up. I haven't gone to look at this. I'd be fascinated to know. I don't know if there is a pitch being used twenty five percent or more that any pitcher has a lower exit velocity hit against it. Is it under eighty four eighty three point six percent ev or eighty three point six mile per hoor ev on average
against that change up? I don't know if there's another pitch that's used that much who has a lower hard hit rate against, and he was able to dead knit a little bit more. I love the whiff rate, I love the mix. He struggled a little bit in the second half where the K numbers dropped as era went from like two and a half to three and a half. But I think he's an elite pitcher. I think you're actually going to get more of a discount on him
in Dynasty. He's my number one Dynasty pitcher because you're still looking at a very young mean, especially when you're comparing against the rest of the crew. He's twenty five years old. Twenty five year old pitchers with a little bit of a discount and a keeper format with I think really sustainable changes pounds the zone he gets his cas. Don't love the second half, but listen, like, this is
still an adjustment period. This isn't a guy who's twenty years old and has multiple two hundred seasons under him. So I'm very big on buying on Shae McClanahan.
You'll see no pictures on my top ten lists. Just fair enough?
Why not?
Yeah, And that's and that's how I look at this. Like, if you're talking about elite keepers, like the ten guys that I like in terms of target value either their round or the player they are, or I'm willing to overpay for them in salary cap leagues. No pictures, because I will figure that out later. I will find a way to pieces together. They're just not great investments anymore. Long gone with the days of Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez. I mean, Randy Johnson was such a great keeper back
in the day. Every year, you know, two hundred and age strikeouts, three hundred strikeouts, eight hundred and thirty innings, Pedro even. You know, there were a lot of guys in that era not that long ago. There were very good investments every single year. Knew what you were getting out of them.
Not now. I just can't get there with these.
It's back as sure, I mean sures there was another one of those guys as well, But yeah, I sree. I guess my definition is more defining players that I think I can sugger upsides from where they're being valued. And that's why only two come up on this list. But they're kind of like my two key guys this year.
Well, one guy came up on my list last year. He is going to come up on my list this year. Still twenty three years old. Bobby Witt, junior shortstop for the Kansas City Royals. One hundred and fifty games last year, twenty home runs, thirty steals. Definitely a rough start, there's no doubt about that. But if you stayed true and you trusted the process and we did.
You got rewarded.
Now, he hurt you last year in head to head formats in the beginning of the year, there's no doubt about the guy hurts you. He is no other way to put it. But in the rotal formats, if you stayed patient, you got rewarded. And let that be a lesson for you too. With the young players. In the rotal format, you can have more patients. It's hard in the head to head formats to have the patients. But I think we're just getting started with this guy again. This is another player that has even more upside.
Well.
She mentioned that it's not the greatest offense. The guy still had eighty run score and eighty RBI with the Royals last year. I still think that's something that we kind of overlook. We talk about the power in the speed, but he still scored eighty runs and he still drove in eighty runs is a rookie. As a rookie, that's an incredible.
Thing to do. He's a star in the making.
Eventually, the OBP will come up, the batting average will come up. You saw the second half numbers of the ops. All that stuff came up in the second half. It's only going to get better from here. This is a player twenty three years old in the premium position two that.
You go when you target.
So while some people might be looking at, you know, some other big time shortstops, I would still be paying extra for Bobby Witt, and I understand why some people would still want some.
Of the guys ahead of him on the list.
And you see him on the ranks and Fantasy pros two, I think this is the guy that I'd.
Be targeting Welsh. That's my dude.
All right, let's go to your number three top three time for the twenty twenty three Keeper League targets.
Who's number three?
Well, a guy that I thought was actually valued like Bobby Witt is no longer and it's Bobachett. And Bobachett is one of those he used to be Bobby Witt and now as a twenty four year old is cast aside and redraft and even keeper where I think he's barely even a second round pick in a lot of places. And I'm just not done. He has had a kind of significant decrease over four years if you look at it as a total as far as like batting average
and slugging has gone. But this is a guy that actually pushed his hard hit numbers higher than they'd ever been before. Barreling is still there, and even those expected stats, they're not going that much further down. I don't know if projections know what quite to do with the stolen bases, because he went from twenty five to thirteen the power
numbers were relative, but he's consistently playing. This is a sub twenty five year old guy that has twenty twenty upside in a great offense, who still hits the ball incredibly hard. I'm not ready to give up on Bobaschett. I think you actually get him in kind of a good deal, Like you couldn't even imagine trading Bashett for Bobby Witt at this point, and I don't think they're
incredibly far off now. If the stolen base numbers go away, it's gonna cap them a little bit, but Bobashet is still a great buy in keeper leagues.
All right, speaking of great buys, this might be the one year maybe you get any kind of discount on Wan Soto four years old.
I'm just never going to give up on Juan Soto and all my love for him. Now he's not one or two.
Maybe last year we do this list, he maybe he's my number one guy, he's number three. Still, the consistency of Juan Soto is just unbelievable. Now, I understand last year down year for him. This is a player with a two to eighty seven career batting average, So I'm not going to freak out the fact that he played with a Washington team that was dreadful, had nobody in front of him, nobody behind him. It was absolutely the drags, all the rumors about being traded, contracts.
All that stress. He's still a young player. I think that affected him mentally.
He's a tough kid, but still I think that affected him, and I think the change affected him.
I think he just flat out pressed too much. How many times have we seen.
The guys, whether it be Bryce Harper, Carlos Belcher, all these years. The guys who end up somewhere else are in a big contract. They press, they pressed, they pressed, they pressed. This is the same kind of thing you went to a situation was like, okay, I gotta be you know, Juan Soto, superstar guy in San Diego, and it just didn't happen. Relax, be fine.
This year.
They've got so much talent around this guy. He's a phenomenal player. He's gonna be playing for a contract pretty soon too, and you're getting a player once again.
I'm looking for upside. Yeah, they're still upside.
His best season thirty four to one to ten. I think he can go forty one to twenty easily. I think there might even be more in the right circumstance for him. Juan Soto is a generational talent. Does he give you the stolen bases and that stuff. No, But in those OBP leagues especially, he's about as good as a gets. I mean, a career four to twenty four OBP guy, and that is something that's really hard to
find these days. So if you're in that format, you could even argue one Sodo over some of the other guys too, because you can find stolen bases.
I think guys that get on bas at.
The clip that Jan Soto does consistently, with the power he has consistently, with the batting average he typically has consistently, it's hard to find. Give me Juan Soto still the one to one in my heart. Going to your number two guy, Welsh, who is it?
Well, let's do this. I'm gonna make an alteration here because we I purposely tried to be different from your list. I agree with lots of your players. This is one that I missed. I didn't see that we had the same guys. This is my number one, he's your number two, so let's talk about him together. I think it's one of the most important ones and I can give you I actually think maybe the most fascinating conversation as my number one, and it's ronald' Kunya, who we both have.
I did not notice that you had him at too. I have him at one, and I think this is the number one overall player in Redraft this year. I think there is debate in question as far as keeper in Dynasty. He is in the top elite top three conversation of overall players. I think go Tani and daily leagues you have to still look at the guy that as your number one. You have to look at and
Acunya is in that list. And even when he struggled last year, still was able to put up power, had top fifteen biggest differential between home run and expected home run. He still was in like the top two or three or five in stolen bases and under one hundred and twenty games last year he compensated, which is exactly what you want to great line up. Ronald Cunya is young, the power he is don't It's a non worry. The hard hit numbers are there, everything is still there. Ronald
Cunya is an easy buy. He's your number two. I'll place him at too, so we can be together. And what's important here is us focusing that Ronald d'acunya at any discount in a keeper league based off of maybe suppressed power numbers or people worried about injury is a buye And I know you agree with you.
One hundred percent.
Look, he is the only reason he's not my two is because of who number one is, which I'm shocked that your number one is not the same as my number one.
Well he is, but I tried to be different. I tried to be different. I didn't want to have all the same names. He would easily be my number one buying keeper in Dynasty overall. So that just know that I completely agree.
Look Ronald Cunya doing what he has done.
And it's funny because we even touched on it last time we did the show, which is people were worried about the stolen bases after the knee injury. Well, I mean came back, so twenty nine, one hundred nineteen games. It's just it's stunning.
The power.
I didn't drag, but I mean the power was the thing that you know wasn't quite where it was. I'm not worried about Acunya. He's gonna be twenty five years old this year. The prime is still way ahead of him.
Now.
Is there a time where you might start to look at Acunya and say, okay, is the forty one home run season and outlier?
Yeah, I think we'd have that conversation.
I mean might be, but is he a player that's still maybe your best bet for thirty thirty every year or one of the top guys.
Yeah, And I think.
That's what you have to come back to, is that thirty thirty situation, and not to mention, you know, I have three outfielders in my top three.
Outfield is not good.
Nope, take a pack.
It is bad.
And in those leagues where you have to play five or four even it's rough. Acunya's value is very high, SODA's value is very high. So for me, Acunya is again number two. I can argue number one, but the guy like at number one is just I think you know another special generational talent where we're looking at players with even more upside. Why don't you go for your number one too? Since we both had a Kunya there towards the well.
And again understanding the context of it, you know this is I think is an important guy. This is my number one important conversation attempting to be different from your list because I think your guy is the number one keeper dynasty player in general, again taking Otani's context out, but it's Fernando Tatis Junior, and I think it's one
of the most important keeper league. Keep your eye on situations where Fernando Tatis is coming off of in twenty twenty one, of course, a forty twenty forty two, twenty five overall season insane numbers. Where in fifty games in twenty twenty still with seventeen and eleven, I mean he was pacing to put up these same incredible numbers. Obviously, there's questions around whatever steroid usage was out there and
what effect that's going to have. But what you're still doing is you're still looking at a twenty four year old. He just turned twenty four years old. All year he'll be twenty four years old. He's had some injury stuff obviously, might be moving more to an outfielder with them bringing in Zanto Bogarts and everything like that.
Because I look at shortstop, I'm looking for the guys like you got with Lindor Simmey and you know seeger Trey Turner, Boba Schett, you know all these guys, you know, Xander Bogar, sim Anderson Swanson, Anio Cruz Franco and man is like Shortze's pretty good. I almost feel like he is more valuable in Fantasy in the outfield now.
I couldn't agree more. I could care any of the guys that I take in the first round. I really don't care about your position for the most part, Like Cosey Ramirez, the differentiating factor between maybe him and Trey Turner might be that he has third base, and you might side on that, but I don't care. I don't care that I have Trey Turner as a shortstop. I don't care about Tatus as a short stop. I actually care that I get him more an outfield. There's more value.
I could go and take Dansby or Xander later and I can go and put Tatis out in the outfield because it stinks this year. So no, it might keep him a little bit healthy. He's still an elite power speed combo player. You are obviously stepping into a situation where maybe he's more volatile because you don't know what you're getting coming off of a two surgeries in the offseason and be steroid allegations. But I still I don't think. I don't think that retracts from the in same talent
of who he truly is. And I'm willing to take the buy. And he's under twenty five years old, he's got a suspension coming up for this year. You take all of that in, you could do a keeper you guys could do a keeper league where he's not drafted in the first round. His ADP is in the second round for redraft, but you might have a wheel pick in a keeper league where he has not taken, and
he's a must take. He's a top three overall overall keeper league dynasty player regardless of this stupid month he's missed. And it's a great buying opportunity. So if you want to chalk this up as top twenty, top ten keeper league, pay attention to buys. Guys, you need to know Tatis is as important as anybody on this list, because there's inherent value compared to who we both agree is like the number one keeper player who you have on your list.
Well, you know it's funny too if you go back two years ago to Tis is probably number one on this list.
On both It was number one on my list before any of these rights, and.
I think we can't forget that. Does he have a lot of risk? Yeah? Is it a little bit more inherent now I got to know the player better. Yeah, maybe.
And there's a chance that San Diego could flip him somewhere else, Like he's got a huge contract, but you know, maybe they decided they like Soto instead and they're gonna move tat Teas and that contract might be appealing to somebody else and say lock up this young kid instead.
I mean, who the teams are? Gonn bring him on? By the way, like, is anybody gonna dislike Tatia? I was about to say, is anyone gonna dislike tatis if he's a New York Yankee? I mean maybe personally, but not fantasy wise.
No, not fantasy wise, well, the number one fantasy guy. Look, we tried our best to be patient last year and calm about Julio Rodriguez. And I give Welsh a lot of credit too, because he's been a Julio guy for years and I've liked the player a lot too, and both of us were trying very hard to be reasonable, and you know what, Julio Rodriguez makes it fun to be unreasonable. Twenty eight home runs is his rookie season. Twenty five steals. He only played one hundred and thirty
two games. But that's okay, two eighty four batting average. It's just about this guy stays healthy. This is the perennial MVP candidate in the American League. I mean, this is who this guy is. He is a forty forty type player, Like, that's who this guy is. Those guys do not grow on trees. He has a good thirteen years ahead of him. If you could keep a player forever, I don't care what you gotta pay, what you got
to do to get that first pick. Maybe you know, if you have an extra kid or laying around your house, you're like, you know, I got a bunch of kids. Put this kid up and you'll see what we get to look find a way to get Julio Rodriguez. Okay, I'm joking everybody. I don't really want to sell kids, although I mean, well, you know, when they start to get to that preteen years, you know your kids are still tiny, You're you're gonna start changing your tune about their availability.
You're gonna start at least looking at, you know, kicking the tires.
But you're just hoping for good education with those kids. You're pretty good.
Off with Julio Rodriguez. Let me tell you.
I mean, look, the thing is you want him to obviously dial back on the strikeouts a little bit.
That's something you hope over time can happen.
Will the league make adjustments to him, Yes, but I think this is a player that is going to adjust back well, Julio, is your.
Guy talk to it?
Yeah, No, I mean it's everything that you said. I'm still enamored personally, just off of my experience, and you know my interview way back that we all joke about. It's like everyone's like, have you ever interviewed Julio. We talked about it a lot, but like it's a fascinating He was never gonna be a stolen based guy, and he literally tells me like, I want to steal more
bases and that was his focus. And look at him now, I mean, this is a guy that could be an easy thirty thirty, It could be a forty forty if you want to put on it. It's an incredible it's an incredible bat. It's elite skills across the board. He's made himself into a premial five tool player, and he is what Akunya and Tatis were last year the year before that, Like what you envisioned in those type of players. You have that with Julio. He overcame being pinched by
umps early on in the season. He overcame all of the rookie struggles that you might think are going to surround a player. They continuously try to surround him with more talent. This is it's an easy bet. Also just with the age, you know, I mean he's got two or three years on pretty much everybody. So like where Otani is, a daily moves player is so above and beyond everybody else because if you can daily move him to a hitter and pitcher, there's.
In the leagues where you have windows of time where you have restrictions of keeper keeper restrictions. Otani probably is my number one, especially in this scenario you're paying.
But that's why it's so fascinating. A twenty one year old thirty thirty potential bat versus a you know, closing in on thirty multi position. It's a fascinating debate on where the top goes. And the reiteration of all of this is, we give you guys a lot of players. It wasn't a top ten overall keepers or anything like that. It's twenty keepers that you guys need to be paying attention to. But keeper leagues are not all equal, So
understand that in your evaluation of these. Some keeper leagues you can pay more attention to redraft values, some closer to dynasty. These are twenty regardless of your format, that you've got to pay attention to.
And those twenty are Ryan Mountcassel on Welsh's list at ten, Nick Lodolo, Austin Riley, Vinie Pasquentina Corbyn, Carol Annio Cruz, Shane McClanahan, Boba Sheet, Fernando Tatis Junior and Ronald Acunya. My top ten list of the guys again, different reasons all of them. Adlie Ruschman at ten, Andres Jmenez at nine, Wander Franco at eight, Kyle Tucker at seven, Joey o'tanni at six, Jordan Alvarez, he almost at the Jordnal because
I just like saying so much Jordan Alvarez, Jordan. I like to say Jordan, but Jordan Alvarez, the Houston Astros, Bobby Whitt Houston. Something I told you, dude, it's techno tonof football season.
Alvarez Houston Astros, not Texans.
Bobby Witt from the Kansas City Royals, not the Chiefs, Juan Soto from the Well there are no more Chargers in San Diego, Ronald Acunya from Theolanta Braves and Julia Rodriguez.
Who are your guys? We want to know?
Let us know we always tweet us at is it the Welsh at Joe piece of PS seventeen and of course don't forget start preparing now. The Wizard is open for business Fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard. Go get your draft on. I want to thank the sponsor of today's show, and that's Fantrack. Sign up for free today and be entered to win that Vladimir Guerrero Junior Jersey by simply going to fantracks dot com slash Fantasyprosagain, that's fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros to win that Vladdie
Junior Jersey fan tracks, the home of Fantasy Sports. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh.
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast. Follow us on Twitter at Fantasy Pros MLB and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB.