Top 20 Draft Day ADP Deals (Ep. 941) - podcast episode cover

Top 20 Draft Day ADP Deals (Ep. 941)

Mar 10, 202551 minEp. 941
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Episode description

Join Joe Pisapia (@JoePisapia17) and Chris Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) as they reveal their 20 favorite draft day ADP deals that will help you dominate your fantasy baseball leagues in 2025!

Timestamps: 

Intro - 0:00:00

FantasyPros Fantasy Fest! - 0:02:22

Signed John Smoltz Jersey Giveaway - 0:03:25

Cristopher Sanchez - 0:04:06

Bubba Chandler - 0:05:40

Victor Robles - 0:07:07

Luis Severino - 0:09:21

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 0:10:55

Thairo Estrada - 0:12:48

Jonathan India - 0:13:56

David Festa - 0:16:02

Gavin Williams - 0:17:27

Microsoft Challengers Segment: Max Meyer - 0:20:27

Jung Hoo Lee - 0:23:08 

Grant Holmes - 0:26:02

Clay Holmes - 0:27:06

Luisangel Acuna - 0:30:00

Tomiyuki Sugano - 0:31:27

Ryan Weathers - 0:33:38

Joc Pederson - 0:35:08

Kyle Manzardo - 0:37:41

Pavin Smith - 0:39:07

Cam Smith - 0:41:25

Gerrit Cole Update - 0:46:02

Outro - 0:49:34


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Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is me, Joey p Joep Zapia with me is the Welsh, and today we're gonna have a lot of fun. I know we've talked to a lot of big stars and big players with very high ADPs, but we're gonna talk about the opposite today. That's right. These are the hidden gems, the sleepers, if you will, some of the guys that are going way too far at ADP that we think are real gems that you

should be looking for drafting. And remember, if these picks don't work out, you can always cut them for somebody else. But every single year, Welsh, we know this, We've been doing this forever. You draft some guys late, they end up winning you leagues, being huge contributors, or even just being contributors for a while where they can help you out while somebody's recovering from injury or some other issues going on. And that is a huge difference maker in

your fantasy baseball life. So I think it's really important this might be the most important show you all year to identify some of these guys going outside of the one seventies all the way to eight hundred. That's right, I've got put somebody eight hundred ADP. I think it's going to change over the weeks ahead, but right now that's where the kids ends ADP is on this one guy Welsh, How important are these hidden gems that we're going to discuss today for everybody's Fantasy Baseball livelihood?

Speaker 2

Yeah, I mean you mentioned it. These are these can be league winners. This is these are the guys that attribute to that adage of like you don't win your draft in the first round or the second round, it's because you're finding great deals of guys that are going to completely completely have big returns off of where you've

gotten them. And I mean, at the end of the day, we can't have every single player have positive returns, but you want to have as many as possible, and sometimes do you just look and you're just like, why is

this guy still down there? One of the things we do do here is we're using an aggregate ADP here in Fantasy pros, which is using multiple sites different average draft position, so you know, sometimes it could be one site that drags a player down, but you know, we'll also be honest a lot of people are going to look at ADP's here, but there are tons of instance as well, instances where you're looking and you're like, well, this guy's average ADP on Fantasy Pros is this, and

it's even worse onto of the big major sites that you look at. So it's super important to be able to identify to fill out your roster by finding some of these gems on these ADP deals.

Speaker 1

And speaking at gems. Well, we've got a bunch of great people here at Fantasy Pros and we're gonna be using them all for the Fantasy Fest this coming Wednesday, that's right in March twelfth, three pm Eastern. Be there or B Square Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Fest, a four hour live stream of friendship, fun and baseball. We got bold predictions, we've got breakouts, we got bus we've got everything.

We've got the Welsh, We've got the Worm, We've got Mayor, We've got me, Joey p and Joel Rico more than one Joe that's probably necessary for every Fantasy Fest. We've got guests to Frank Stanfeld, Chris Towers, Eric Crosscott Pianowski, and many more. So you can tune in live right here in the YouTube channel. Subscribe to the YouTube channel trying to get to twenty five thousand subscribers before opening day.

Fingers crossed, we can get there, and of course we always promise we'll do stupid things when we hit every milestone, but subscribe to the YouTube channel, watch Fantasy Fest live or just watch it back. But the best way to remember is to subscribe to the YouTube channel and ring the belts that goes ding for notification so you can join us and we'll be taking your questions as well as going through all of the pitfalls and pleasantries of fantasy Baseball. And if you like free stuff, we've got

an amazing giveaway John Smoltz. That's right, Hall of Famer John Smoltz assigned braves jersey of John Smoltz can be yours thanks to our good friends at Pristine Auction dot com. All you have to do to enter is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros YouTube channel for MLB. That's Fantasy Pros MLB. Subscribe right now, drop a comment below on this video

or any video, and that's it. We'll be announcing the lucky winner right here on the channel, so make sure you turn on those notifications like I told you before, so you know when new videos are up and can claim your prize. Now, all my guys are post three hundred ADP on these gems list today. Welsh started in the one seventies and worked his way to the two hundreds, the three hundreds, and then the four hundreds. So Welsh wanted to kick things off with a pitcher at one seventy one.

Speaker 2

Yeah, so this is the only guy that's inside the top two hundred. I didn't set a barrier to go, you know, only outside the three hundred. I was just kind of peruising there's quite a few two hundreds, but this is my highest of the players and kind of talked about him a decent amount so far. So just going to throw back out here. The highest of these on the ADP deals at one seventy one is Christopher Sanchez with the Phillies, and we've talked. I've talked about

the added cutter in getting the K percentage up. We've also seen that he's had Velo increases and that's huge having those Villa increases on the fastball. Adding a cutter in to get the K percentages up. The K percentage is kind of the biggest thing that's holding him back. I think on fantasy value, he had some significant innings last year. He's on a really good team, but it was around like a twenty percent k percentage lower than

Brian Wu. So if he pushes that up into the twenty five percentile range, and you could foresee that with you know, this uptick in velocity and this added new pitch, he is gonna blow past this. But even if he doesn't blow past this, I think he's still coming out of value. I think it's still probably at least twenty picks. I've seen him go inside the top one fifty and a lot of drafts right now, so I think around the one seventies this is a good way to start this.

This is a higher ish name, but he's still not even in the one fifty of your draft ranks. Here that as far as ADP goes, I think Chris Sanchez is a smoking deal.

Speaker 1

Still, all right. I'm an overachiever, So I started in the three hundreds. That's where I started today for my list, And the first one I want to draft is Bubba Chandler, big time pitching prospect of the Pittsburgh Pirates. And the Pirates back of the rotations Andrew Heeney and Bailey Falter.

Right now, if you go back and look at Bubba Chandler and his minorgue track record here in Double A last year and twenty twenty four, he made sixteen starts nineteen games at a four ERA, okay, but the strikeout rate is incredible over ten and a half k per nine. He moved up seven starts in Triple A and things actually got better for him at Triple A, which was fantastic, a one to eight nine ERA over his first seven starts.

My guest Welsh is he'll make ten to twelve starts at Triple A and then he's going to get the call. So this is one of these guys you want to draft in stash if you're in some sort of league where you're in let's say multiple keepers, right and you're in a salary cap league, get drafted him for maybe a buck or two. By the time he comes up there, I would say Midsummer, maybe there's a chance he can really make I would say ten or so impactful starts and then maybe next year look as something he could

be useful too. But also the hype around these prospects is real and sometimes they can become even great trade chips as well. So Bubba Chandler, a guy that's got an incredible fastball, another one of these just big time pitching prospects from the Pittsburgh organization. And if they only had some hit prospects, maybe things will get better instead of a bunch of old farts like Andrew mccutchet and

Tommy fam in the lineup. But I digress. At the end of the day, Pittsburgh, what the hell you doing? Let's go back to another guy here, number two fifteen. If you like steels, well you'll like this next guy.

Speaker 2

Yeah, Victor Roebliss. He's been on some of you. Chris Sanchez Victor Robliss both been on a few of my different videos that we've talked about. And frankly, if you don't want to attack stolen bases early, you want to find them later. How about post two hundred thirty to forty plus stolen bases. If you've gotten stolen bases early on, then you need to pivot to power. You don't want to forget about the position and you want to be able to come back again. Victor Robliss a prime position

for that. He's going to be hitting at the top of this Mariners lineup, had a really great run with them. There's a potential for ten forty this season, and the stolen bases are going to go through the roof. The spring hasn't been anything to write home about. It's kind of like, you know, two hundred, I think some of the strike so there he's not running, but you don't want him to run in spring. Once he gets going into the season, they've got a manufacture runs. I think

this team knows this too. They weren't hyper I mean, Justin Turner was out there, you know, publicly calling them out like, hey, if I'm the biggest thing that you've done, you've messed up. And I think part of that is this team being comfortable with what they have and knowing that they're going to have to be a much more hyper aggressive team on the base pads. I mean, and they already relatively are with a lot of pieces they have,

and Victor Roblos is the table setter for that. So post two hundred, a forty plus stolen base guy that can hit for average score runs, Yeah, maybe he's going to be a little devoid in RBI. Maybe a little bit in the homers, but you're going to get three ish high category. If he's hitting two eighty plus and he's scoring eighty plus runs and he steals forty plus, I mean there's your close to three high end categories.

I think he's a smashing deal. And I've seen him go as high as one point fifty as well, so sixty seventy spots higher. I think he is a prime pick that you got to go. I'm surprised he hasn't pushed up. There's a couple of those stolen base guys. I mean, we saw Luis Garcia with the Nationals get pushed up. We just haven't seen it with Victor Robless enough yet. And I really think he could warrant being drafted almost one hundred picks higher, So huge, huge eighty p deal in Victor Robless.

Speaker 1

Well, Stolen bases are easier to combine now with the rules changes, But if you're in a draft and steels are getting away from you, a great late pick here for Robless without a doubt, just kind of fill that void a little bit and make up some ground. Next on my list at three zero five currently Luis Severino of now the Athletics the Sacramento Athletics. Are we even calling them the Sacramento Athletics, I don't know.

Speaker 2

I think like the Athletics, you see they're gonna wear a Las Vegas patch on their Why the Sacramento they're gonna wear a Las Vegas patch on their jersey?

Speaker 1

Is it a nicotine patch or just like, yeah it is lot after going.

Speaker 2

To Vegas, it does seem like it should be.

Speaker 1

Louis Severino last year had a really solid season. The thirty one year old found himself again in New York, but not for the Yankees, for the Mets. He threw one hundred and eighty two innings plus postseason. It looked prett now. The strikeout rate wasn't prolific, but still strong enough. He just walked sixty guys struck out one hundred and sixty one was around three to ninety one. But again, a guy that went out there made thirty one starts

last year, and durability is important. I think this athletics team is going to be much better than people realize. I think that division is a little softer than people might realize. Also, and it would not surprise me if the Athletics somehow backdoored their way into the playoffs. I'm just telling you all right now, it's not out of the realm of possibilities. And they went out there and

were aggressive. I know they had to spend money. I get all that, but if you're looking for a guy as a fifth starter or a bench starter on your team, why not look at a guy like Severino coming off a very good season, a very competitive season. When I like most about Severino last year when I watched him pitch was he found his competitiveness again and that was the thing that was really lacking. I know health was an issue for him with the Yankees, but also that

competitive fire that came back in a big way. And I love this offense for the Athletics. I think they're going to surprise some people this year. Back to your list, Welsh, let's go to another one at two eighteen. If you're looking for another bat, who is it.

Speaker 2

Yeah, we're gonna go to a middle of the order bat that's post two hundred. It is on the team that I like with the Arizona Diamondbacks, it's Lordus Guriel and you know, having the ability to hit three on one of the highest and most aggressive scoring teams in baseball is a plus. We have to give him that extra advantage. The Diamondback you're gonna have lordis majority of the time probably hitting between like a three and a four.

You know, pinning the side of the plate, you can have opportunities where they might you know, have a left hand or hitting three. But if you're hitting between three and four in the Diamondbacks line, if you've got kateel Marte and you've got Corbyn Carroll both on base in front of you, Corvin Carroll's scoring at the highest rate went on base in baseball, katel Marte having an absolute breakthrough season, and Lords being a legitimate high batting average

two sixty to two eighty twenty five homer end guy. There, there's always the possibility that he could pull the guy that's going to be either hitting in front or behind him. A Josh Naylor in put up one hundred RBI season. Hell, if you have a Naylor hitting three and Lord is hitting four, there's just more guys that are going to be on base with that potential, and he's free. He's an outfielder, he's free. Dan Back's have talked about potentially

maybe playing him a tiny bit less. I think that's in the field, and I think what that would provide is maybe having him DH But he's always going to be in a prime RBI spot. I think he's legitimately year after year underrated in that offense, and post two hundred, he's going to be able to provide you an easy pop of like one fifty value. And I think I touched with Ario Cohen. He thinks Lordis was one of the top players that popped out is a deal off

of his ATC projection. So getting a middle of the order lineup in one of the highest run heavy teams is a plus. And it is post two hundred right now, So he's an ADP deal.

Speaker 1

Deeper leagues, you're looking for some help in the middle infield, maybe things get away from you. Tario Estrada of the now Colorado Rockies.

Speaker 2

I I almost put him on this list, by the way.

Speaker 1

For Estrada and look injuries, bad metrics, everything was bad for him. But he's still just twenty nine years old, still in his quote unquote prime if you dial back to twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three, is a guy hitting fourteen home runs every year, hitting somewhere around two sixty five two seventy, and now you're taking him out as a right handed batter of San Francisco and

dropping him in Colorado. Welsh to me, this is a no brainer when you're trying to find some depth in the middle infield, qualify the second base, and I think this is not a guy that I'm looking to start in that second base as a fantasy manager this year, but as a middle infield guy, I think you might be able to do a little worse than him. And I think right now, you look at the ADP, he's practically a free player. And let's not forget he had two straight years of twenty plus stolen bases too. I

know nothing worked out for this player last year. He's also in a one year show me deal. There is an option next year for Estrata. But Welsh to me, whenever players like Estrada are playing for money and playing in a good hitter environment, I'm paying attention, and Estrata takes both of those boxes. Let's go back to another guy on your list here coming in at two twenty six, a guy who got traded this offseason. Let's talk about Jonathan India in his new digs.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and I think kind of with your astrata thing as well. Any player that's going to put up those potential twenty twenty seasons, you've got to pay attention to on value, and that's why Estrada pops out. That's also why a guy like Jonathan India pops out. You know, he hasn't gotten to that twenty twenty marker over the last couple of years. But it's also some of it has been playing time seventeen fourteen to two forty eight average fifteen thirteen. This is homers, stolen bases, and a

two forty eight average last season. He's now going to be put in a situation where he probably more often than not, is going to be leading off for the Kansas City Royals. This is coming off of a career high walk percentage twelve percent, which was like top three percent out of the league under twenty percent K percentage. So even if the hitting profile hasn't boosted and created into this big monster, he expected average was two sixty

six after hitting two forty eight. That's the best of his career K percentage, lowest of his career walk percentage, highest of his career now you're going to go on a playoff potential Royals team. We're leading off and hitting behind Bobby Witt, Salvador Perez, Vini pas Quentino. As long as he can stay healthy, I legitimately think Jonathan India has got an opportunity to put up a twenty twenty season, and if not, I think you're looking at probably like

somewhere between an eighteen and eighteen high runs. Maybe the RBIs even tick up a little bit. And I know it's funny because he's coming from a very hitter friendly environment. I think the team context is way better. And it's kind of interjecting with the time period for Jonathan India that I think he's just a smoking deal. At two twenty six right now, that is his average ADP across multiple sites, and essentially what that is also telling you is he's post two hundred in most of these as well.

So if you're looking for a player that can probably aggressively beat this, I think Jonathan India is one of those guys.

Speaker 1

I would agree I like a lot this year too. That's a team that I think is going to continue to get better over the next couple of years ahead and they're going to be very competitive this year. Again. Next on my list at three thirty four, it's a pitcher. And no, it's not because I spent a lot of

time with Joe Rico. I wrote all the pictures up for the Black Book, and I was already on David Festa anyway, because when you break down David Festa, even if he doesn't make the rotation, and if he doesn't make the rotation out of spring training, he's going to be even cheaper. Probably you'll be free. You just kind of pluck him off with your last pick. But if you go back and look at last season, the first

two starts were Festo before absolutely dreadful. Two starts, ten innings, twelve earned runs, an ERA over ten after that a three eight one ERA. Over his final eleven starts fifty four innings, struck out sixty nine guys. So he's got big time strikeout ability eleven k per nine. There. The whip was at one point twenty five over those same starts. He had a three eight one ERA. As I said before, so Festa figured it out, and to me, it's a

no brainer. At some point he is going to be back in that rotation for the Twins if he does not break camp with them in the rotation. So either way, you've got to start thinking about and some of my picks for more long term remember baseball six months long. Would you rather have some of these guys on your roster if you have enough bench to keep them as

opposed to wasting free agent budget on players. And you know, if a guy like Festa gets called up, it's gonna cost you a lot because people are gonna get excited about it. So if you can early on make some space on your bench for a guy like Festa, because either way, I think he's gonna probably make at least fifteen stars for the Twins this year, if not more. Welsh back to your list here, and the next player we're gonna talk about is one of the favorites of

Nick Pollock. If you missed out on either of the Ultimate Pitching Guys with Enosius or Nick Pollock, watch them here on the YouTube channel, Go click on them. They're fantastic. But William's another player that Nick was very much in on again late ADP. If it doesn't work out, you can cut him, but he could be a big piece this year for that Cleveland rotation.

Speaker 2

Yeah, that's a lot about Like what this is is like having these low ADP for high potential. So if you want a confirmation on everything you might have heard on some of the pitching ones, well here you go two forty four average ADP and that is rising because not only all off of all the positive words you would have got out of the pitching guides, but he's also had a phenomenal spring training. Through eight innings pitch so far in spring training that's over three games, he

has a sixteen to two strike to walk ratio. He has struck out sixteen, so double the amount of innings he's pitched, and he's only walked too. In that period of time, we've seen the whiffs go up. I think the VLO has been up, looks very consistent, extension looks good. And health. That's a big thing with Gavin Williams is just staying out there, being healthy and locking in that rotation spot, which all of those things seem to be

clicking right now. So a big key kind of like as you said, Joe, with any of these players, is finding the right upside versus what you can just show away, you know, back to the very top. Like the reason why my Bubba Chandler is worth taking a shot on is because you can take a shot on him at the end of drafts and then you can hear what the word is. I mean, every day I will say we're getting like this guy's with some of the weelvy Martes, you know, sent down to Triple A. He's not making

the team, so we are getting some confirmations. But when you don't have those, you can go and take a guy at the end of your draft that can be replaceable based on that. But then you might get a timeline. And if that timeline on a guy like Bubba Chandler is hey, by the end of April, we're going to let him start four or five and back hold and now you don't have to worry about waiver the capitol if it is you know, probably sometime this summer. Okay, you took your shot. Maybe you don't want to hold

on anymore. You want a streaming spot, Let him go and put a marker on it. That's what's so valuable about that. The same thing, just to a smaller or different degree, applies for a guy like Gavin Williams. Where Gavin Williams, you know he's going to be in the rotation and if it works out, it's super beneficial and you're happy. And if it doesn't, then you cut him and you can move on to some other type of streaming.

You know, give him some time to see if it works out, but if it doesn't, you can go and stream. That's why these deals become even bigger is because of the shots that you can take. And Gavin Williams actually might be a player that makes it more palatable to take a shot on abubb a Chandler because I do think there's more staying power with a guy like Gavin Williams. And this Spring has been phenomenal, but these are the type of guys hitting on these might enable you to

hold on to even abubb a Chandler. So just a little bit more again, he is the Spring sensation. He is moving way up though, so pay attention to the costs because they are rising like crazy on Gavin Williams.

Speaker 1

All right, I'm going to jump ahead to a name on my list who's going further in ADP than some other guys are going to talk about next. But he is the subject of our Microsoft Chasing Challengers, brought to you by Microsoft. Just like the athletes who push boundaries and redefine what's possible in business. Business decision makers today are turning challenges into opportunities, and Microsoft meets you where you are with tools and guidance to help you make

an impact with safe, secure AI solutions. Whatever challenge you're facing, Microsoft empowers you with the expertise to say, bring it on. In this segment, we're gonna bring on Max Meyer of the Miami Marlins. Now, Meyer is a guy a couple of years ago, I know Welsh was very high on. My good friend Craig Mish kept telling me, man, this kid's electric. He is going to be a big time pitcher in the major leagues. Then injuries and then mismanagement.

It's been incredibly challenging to watch Max Meyer get bumped back and forth last year between the major leagues and the minor leagues, and all for the sake of what saving his innings, his innings for what the playoffs that the Marlins were never going to make. I don't understand this, and I'm going to basically write off all of last year for him because I want to hug him like in goodwill hunting and say it's not your fault Max Meyer.

It's just not It was a terrible situation they put him in, and then they were limiting him in the minor leagues with how many pitches he was gonna throw in certain things. Just let him have a regular season and cut him off at one hundred innings, and that's what you wanted to do. But pitchers are creatures of habit, and that's the big challenge when you have a young pitcher. They're trying to develop confidence. They're trying to get themselves in a good spot here where they feel like they're

ready for the major leagues. And when you're not giving him enough exposure to fail, you're basically putting them in a failure position to begin with. So I know the Marlins aren't going to be a good team, but Max Meyer so far has had a very good spring. The velocity looks really strong. I don't see a situation where he's not in the rotation this time around, after all the nonsense and containment last year. So the challenge for the Marlins will be again when do they cap him

in terms of innings? And for fantasy managers, how big of an investment do you make? Luckily, right now, the adp is at three seventy two, so Welsh, you don't have to make a very big investment on him to find out if he's any good and the strikeout potential is there for him. So even if the latter part of the season doesn't look good, the first half could be very good. But the challenge will be what does he look like after the All Star break? How much can he give you in a second half. That's the

challenge the Marlins will face this year with Meyer. And remember, Microsoft's AI solutions empower you to take bold steps and new ideas to help drive your business forward. With Microsoft as your trusted partner, you can navigate your journey with confidence, finding innovative solutions and reaching new possibilities. Visit microsoft dot com Slash challengers to learn more. Welsh, let's get back to your list here, and this is my favorite guy on your list at two fifty nine. I've been drafting

this guy everywhere. He is hitting third, I believe in the lineup this year, hitting in between Williadomas and hitting after an in front of Matt Chapman. It's a great spot in the lineup. He's got batting average, he's got a little speed, a little pop last year didn't work for jung Houley, but I am buying back in big time on the cheap this year. And it looks like you are too.

Speaker 2

Yeah, you nailed it outside the top two point fifty. The hitting three is huge. I think that's a huge placement in this But I don't want to say it's everything, because that can also change. He might just hit on strong side. He might be hitting three. Sometimes they might move him up. We also know that just where you are in the lineup isn't like a guarantee for the

entirety of seasons. Guys are going to move around. But what it opens up for a guy like jung Ulee is he already he had the It's not quite the Luisa rise or anything like that, but maybe Jacob wilsony with a little bit more speed potential. But you have this like, oh, this might be a points league's guy where you know he doesn't strike out, he gets on base, but he doesn't really contribute a whole lot in the

counting stats market. If you are hitting three, you really got a potential to play a bigger role in that. We're also seeing a little bit of that power. I mean so far this spring, we've already seen three extra base hits, which is positive. He's hitting three forty three, he's walking more than he's striking out so far this spring,

and he's just got to stay healthy. So you know, this could end up being like he hits ten homers steals twelve bases, but maybe he has eighty run and ADRBI or maybe the runs go up higher if he moves around in the lineup. At the end of the day, he's just hit. The ADP is super low for a guy that's going to be incredibly high in the lineup. He is a massively patient player. He doesn't strike out, which should keep him at the time of the lineup as long as he keeps getting on base, which he

walks a decent amount. So there's a lot positive for Jung Houlee four twenty five OBP so far this spring as well. That middle of the owner. It's kind of like Lord of Skuriel. But to be frank, there might be more upside with Jung Hooley as far as where his batting average can go, and this applies also for points leagues. He moves way up there, but Junghulee's ADP feeling like it might be criminally low.

Speaker 1

I would say it is, and I because I play in a lot of points leagues, I have a lot of Junghu Lee interests this year. And I will tell you this as well, I love the spot in the lineup. So this ceiling is limited for him, Like, he's not a guy that's gonna, you know, be winning MVPs or anything close to that. Now, A floor is very strong in five categories, especially where he's hitting in that batting

order specifically. That's what I really like. You know, he's gonna get runs and RBIs and he's going to have soul and bases and some batting average like and it seems like a really likable guy too. It's just everybody in the clubhouse likes him too, and he's just like a a guy you want to root for, which is nice. And Jung Hu Lee again, criminally low, I think that might be the best way to put it. Also criminally low. How about a fourth starter on the Atlanta Braves Grant

Holmes at three thirty five. I don't quite understand why this is so low. I'm trying to wrap my mind around it. Now. I know in the minor leagues he struggled with Walks a little bit. You saw that, you know, walk pernin somewhere on the three and a half ish range, give or take, last year was lower than two. So that was a big jump. So was that the evolution of Grant Holmes and finding something new with the major league group there or maybe this was just a bit

of luck. So even if there is regression, Welsh, I feel like Grant Holmes, when you look at what he did last year, is a player that you could certainly buy in on in this ADP. Two start weeks on a good team, Eventually you get a Kunya back. Eventually, you know, this rotation gets Strider back. But I don't think he gets bumped from this rotation necessarily either. I think Holmes defined himself last year in the rotation looked

very solid, was very consistent. You look at the x F, the XCRA, all the deeper stats, they're all right in line with the era. So I'm buying in on Grant Holmes on the cheap, and I don't know why this ADP is struggling to find ground personally. Back to your list. Here another guy who's getting converted from the bullpen to the rotation. Another one of my favorite targets. Welsh took another one from me. It's Clay Holmes of the New York Mets. We mentioned about Sevarino in the turnaround for

him and I the turnaround for him. So far, so good for Clay Holmes. I keep calling him Derek Lowe with more strikeouts. That to me is what Clay Holmes can be. And they're gonna need him too in this rotation. So what's appealing to you about this ADP When it comes to Clay.

Speaker 2

HOLMESY are second straight homes. That's right, it's very Michael king Ish to me. I mean, this is this is theoretically this would be the Michael King of this season, a reliever who is going to be making that starter transition. So I mean the first question is going to be about what the innings can be. But I think Michael King is another good barrier. This is also a veteran

pitcher making this move. He's had multiple sixty plus inning seasons, so is it outlandish that he could push to one fifty? I don't think so. The arsenal will be really interesting to watch. You've got sinker, primary sinker, which is part of the low part. You were talking about the two

sliders that he throws. He throws it's kind of it looks like bullety slider that's got just that lower trajectory, and then he throws this sweeper, and the sweeper is the thing that really opens up the possibility of this being like a Michael King transition. Even though his case went down year over year twenty seven to twenty five percent, the sweeper and slider both had a thirty eight percent or higher with percentage. They're big strikeout pitches and he's

going to be stretching this out over the season. And we've also seen really great results so far this spring pulling this up. As far as his spring stats go, he has had nine point two innings so far, pitched, giving up zero earned runs. He struck out thirteen, walked four, had a point six to two whip. He's also not giving up any hits. That's not going to carry completely into the season. But you know, if that sweeper does what Michael Kings was doing out there, you might start

looking at like a real strikeout guy. And if you get five percent walk rates, six percent walk rates, let's say last year he had eight percent. So even if you go into sevens, but he get that twenty five to twenty seven percent K percentage over a full season. Listen, it's not going to be Michael King, but I think that could be top thirty five, top forty overall sp for a guy.

Speaker 1

Michael Walka, and he's going outside a useful and.

Speaker 2

He's going outside the top two fifty. And guess what, the Mets desperately need his innings with their injuries, and they can push that. So Clay Holmes is kind of a must draft guide, especially to see if early on this transition works out. But I'd also point out remember how rough it was for Michael King at the beginning of the season. He did face the Dodgers last year, so maybe you want to hold on a little bit. But Clay Holmes is like a Muss draft guy.

Speaker 1

Yeah, a little rough start to the year for King, but after that, I think we can all agree it worked out pretty well. Louis Angelecunya at three forty four is my next pick here. Acunya last year a solid year when he came up with the Mets. They only played fourteen games there, but one hundred and thirty one games of Triple A seven homers, forty steals, he only had two sixty, So he'd like to see a little bit more contact, a little bit more on bass skills.

But in the Arizona Fall League he tore the cover off the ball three thirty seven batting average. He had nine to fourteen ops in the AFL. Now the downside right now with Acunya is he's not having a good spring so far. He kind of needs to turn things on here if he's going to force any Mets hands. However, Jeff McNeil is always hurt to me. Jeff McNeil is a bench player at this station in his career. He is not an everyday player. I don't think he offers

you enough. Acunya has some pop, has definitely some speed. He's a better defender, he's a more athletic player, younger player, and the Mets are continuing to look like they're trying to get younger and younger, and I think Acunia might

be part of that. Now watch carefully because Brett Baty played some second base the other day too, So who knows what things are moving around there and what could be happening somebody else besides Jeff McNeil is gonna play more games at second base than Jeff McNeil this year. I'm telling you it's gonna happen. It's gonna come to fruition. So, whether it's Akunya, whether it's Beaty in a transition there,

who knows. Maybe Ronnie Maurisio could be somebody. But right now Akunya is still at the top of my list. Let's see what he does in the next weeks ahead in spring training before he gets sent down. But regardless, long term, somebody else is taking that job. I think in twenty twenty five. Next on the list of the Welsh, it's a pitcher who's coming over from Japan for the

Baltimore Orioles. Now this guy's going outside the top three hundred, A lot of unknowns and a guy who had some I don't say down years, but seemed like he was leveling off in Japan. Then last year had a terrific season. Can that carry over for him in twenty twenty five and we're talking about Sigano.

Speaker 2

Yeah, Tomo Yuki Sigano is feels like the last big pitch. I'm I mean, they got what Eflyn and Sagano, it feels like right now, because Grayson Rodriguez is dealing with some inflammation and maybe they'll get some positive news. But you're talking about a pitcher that a team is going to have to ride the innings on all season. But you're also pushing with this guy that has had an

absolutely phenomenal spring. He's coming off of a start where he just pitched three innings, gave up no hits, no walks, struck out five, and through all nineteen pitches for nineteen strikes as well. This spring, he's put up just some monster numbers. This is before that last start, so I believe he's now over no this was his last start. He's got seven innings, seven strikeouts, two walks, four hits so far this spring, and all we're looking for his opportunities.

This is a veteran who can push a bunch of innings. He's had some really good strikeouts success early on. He's not getting hit early on. We're looking for any type of translation, and the Orioles need him absolutely desperately with the deal Grayson Rodriguez, so maybe this strikeout potential is going to carry over into the regular season. This is

my first guy outside the top three hundred. I'm not sure, there's a ton of Post, a ton of Post three hundred pitchers that are gonna pitch from day one that you were gonna get like one hundred and fifty probably easy innings with this strikeout potential. Again, if it carries over, it's free. It's absolutely free. With Sigano, I'm trying to take him everywhere I can. I think he's also pushing up a little bit, as you know, Grayson coming down, gonna push him in the lineup and maybe gonna get

more starts. But I really love the strikeout potential. I love the spring start, and I'm gonna bank a little bit on this spring carrying over into the season for Sagana.

Speaker 1

There's another guy who's got not high end strikeout ability, but he's gonna have a rotation spot. No, probably not a lot of path to wins, but I think Ryan Weathers of the Marlins at three to sixty can at least be a body in your rotation at the very least. Now, last year, eighty six innings for the Big Club, he had a three six three R. Now, the XCRA was a little higher, the FIP was more in the four range. But even so, if he lands somewhere in the low fours.

I think in mixed leagues, it's still a guy that you can have as a streamer. You play the matchups, you played the two start weeks, and there's upside for more. Ryan Weathers is a pitcher that they have high expectations for, and at some point I think this year Sandal Contra is going to get dealt to a contender. I don't think they're going to wait on that much longer, so rotation spot for him is going to be safe. So I've given you not one, but two guys on the Marlins,

and I know the Marlins. You know it's gonna be a tricky season for them. It's not a great lineup. It's not at the Revy bullpen. But when you're looking for bodies to make some starts, we've had some big pictures already dealing with injuries, Kirby. You mentioned Rodriguez. We're gonna talk about Garrett Cole at the end of the show because we you know, we've we've got to talk about it because it's a big, big piece. But you're gonna need as many starter as you could possibly find,

just like every other major league team. So take some shots, and some guys that have rotation spots, both homes guys we'm talking about Ryan Weathers, Max Meyer, guys that are going to have opportunities to take the ball over fifth day that is at least a start, and hopefully they can give you some quality starts in those situations. A couple more guys left here on the list. This next

one at three thirty nine, Jock Peterson. That is a player of the Welsh Picked and that's a guy that I keep looking at late in drafts for pop. He plays in a good Texas Rangers lineup. I don't get why this ADP is quite so low on him. Welch, do you well.

Speaker 2

I think part of it is platoon. Part of it is he's util lonely. I think that holds him back a little bit. But I've been saying this since we've started doing videos. I think Jock Peterson is criminally underrated. On the strong side. Last year he hit two eighty one with twenty two homers with the Arizona Diamondbacks and that was in like three hundred and thirty something at bats, So there's kind of an argument to be like, well,

you know, he kind of does stink versus lefties. If he gets more opportunity, which has been talked about with Texas, that could lower some of the potential. Yeah, but you're also just looking for as many as as possible that I just think even if he is a strong side platoon guy, at the end of the day, he's still massively, massively more valuable than where he's going right now. You can get mid twenty home run potential with high batting average. That's the other thing is he's not like a two

forty batting average. He's sticking this in two eighty one on the strong side is what he put up this past year. Good hard hit numbers. He's not striking out to an aggressive degree. He's walking, he's getting on base. And by the way, it's Texas, it's a really hit or friendly environment, and they're gonna put him at three, probably on the strong side, three or four. If they put him at three, you've got Seeger and Simeon in front. If they put him at four, just therow Langford in there.

All three of those guys getting on base, and they're on base potential for Jock Peterson RBI opportunities through the roof and then hitting behind him, about Adolius Garcia Jake Berger. There there's plenty of run opportunities, and if they do play him in the field in any capacity, that could open up a few other opportunities. End of the day, he's absolutely free three point thirty nine. You can take

him at the end of every draft. I know he doesn't provide you position flexibility, but I would guess he is probably going to be the best util you can put out there unless you had invested obviously in like

Otani or Ozuna or something like that. But Jack Peterson, when I don't get Brent Rooker and Ozuna and Otani, I have to have it at the end of every draft, or if I play in a multi util type of league, even more, Jack Peterson hard to find that twenty five plus pop at the very end of drafts, and it's really you know, for daily leagues, I think it's even more valuable when you can kind of move him in

and out. But the Rangers might put us in a situation where even weekly lineup leagues, Jack Peterson is going to be a play every single week.

Speaker 1

Next guy on my list is one of my favorite values, and uh, I think it's just prospect fatigue. I think that's what it is. This is a fork in the road season. But he's only twenty four years old. At three sixty three, Kyle Manzardo, who's going to be hitting three and starting at first base down of the jhel Or is gone, and he's hitting right behind Jose Ramirez so far this spring, I just want to point this out.

So far, he's had twenty two at bats, two homers, five rby he's hitting four to nine with a twelve thirty one ops. Now, it's just spring, but spring matters for guys that it matters for, and it matters for Kyle Manzaro because he hasn't lived up to his potential. He's bounced around now more than an organization. So this is his opportunity to lay claim to the starting first base job. Run away with it. Be the guy. You can't be in a better spot in the lineup than

hitting behind Jose Ramirez. Right, You're in a great spot there, except maybe hitting in front of Jose Ramrez. That's the only thing you might want more. But to me Manzardo again, maybe just a little bit more patience is what we need for him. I know this is a player Welsh from the prospect world that you've been in on for a while. But it feels like everybody's forgotten about him because the ADP is telling me, I love buying back in. If it's a startup dynasty, what a great value you're

going to be getting on him. But even in a redraft league, if you're looking for some help at the corners, Kyle Manzardo can be that guy. And I think it's insane. With the spring he's having that the ADP hasn't risen quite yet. If he stays this hot, it's going to change. But either way, he is an incredible value in twenty twenty five. One more name on each of our lists. Welsh, you've gone to the four hundreds. You're in the four hundred section. You're up there with Bob Yucker trying to

see the game. Let's talk about it. Who is the guy here at four point fifty two that you've chosen?

Speaker 2

Now, this is my deepest play here. It is one more diamondback and it is just a representative of my maybe my lack of avoiding or my I want to say love, but I guess I'm just gonna say it's kind of my love for really high side platoon players. I think Kerry Carpenter's in play, Jack Peterson's in play, and Peven Smith is in play. And I've talked a lot about him. Peven is going to be the Diamondbacks Jack Peterson this year. He is going to be their strong side platoon for dh He also can play in

the outfield. He can play first base as a replacement there. He provides a lot and he and I've cited it a million times, but you're looking at like high contact. It was like eighty five percent contact rate with one hundred one hundred fifty ev which is your top fifty evs were over one hundred. It was like eight players in the league that marked that last season with one hundred and fifty plate appearances are above and Pevin was one of those, and actually uh Randall Gritchick was the

other one. With just monster players, All that is to say is that Peven Smith is very representative of what Jock was as a platoon player, and it's why they didn't need to go and get some lefty platoon guy. And they're going to give him a lot of regular bats and his position flexibility puts him in a little bit of a better spot than what was going on with Jock Peterson, and I think he can hit lefties a little bit better.

Speaker 1

He is free.

Speaker 2

If he does what Jock Peterson did, he will be a top two to two fifty overall player. Maybe some of those opportunities will get taken, but I really think he's a guy worth monitoring or in deeper leagues. He is a deal because he is in that Jock Peterson spot and his skill set as far as contact rates hard to hit rates go mirrored Jock. And again that is why they did not bring Jock back, and they weren't worried about not having a Jock like lefty platoon.

Gritchick will play the against left hander dh Or in the outfield and Peven will be that for the strong side platoons. So Pevin Smith is my final of the ADP deals.

Speaker 1

All right, my last one. The ADP is eight hundred, that's right, eight hundred and ten. Why because he's not being drafted yet, and I want to emphasize yet here. I have to say the spring, I have fallen in love with a prospect and his name is Cam Smith, and he is tearing the cover off of the base ball and that might be an understatement Welsh. So far

thirteen at bats, two homers, seven rbi. He's at in six fifteen A, seven to twenty two ovp A twelve thirty one slugging, and we're already making that transition of Altuve to the outfield. That seems like that's earmarked to happen. You sign Eesack Paradise. Why because he can play second and he can play third, but camp Smith should be playing third base. I don't want to hear about Brennan Rodgers, non Reisler invite tee. I don't care. I've watched camp

Smith now and I know he went fourteenth overall. He came over that Kyle Tucker trade. I think the Astros might have saved themselves here in an enormous way. Not only do you move on from Alex Bregman, you move on from Tucker, but well, this organization didn't have a lot of first round picks because of the scandal, Right, so how do you reinvent yourselves by making an incredible trade of your best player for a camp miss guy. I'm watching cam Smith and he reminds me of a

bigger version of Adrian Beltray. He hits the ball so hard, so hard at his explosiveness with his hands. He attacks the baseball and there's very few guys like that. When when you see them hit the baseball, it just feels like they're hitting the baseball harder. I haven't looked at all the exit vlos, watching with my eyeballs, and my god, this guy is exciting. I think it's only a matter of time. I think your last pick in every draft

should be this kid. I don't know if he's gonna start the year at the big club because despite the fact that he did play some minor league baseball last year, only thirty two games. You know, he had five of those games at Double A. The combined slash was three thirteen, three ninety six six oh nine with one thousand ops.

He's probably gonna get some playing time in Double A, probably a little season thing at Triple A. But Welsh, I am telling you this kid is coming fast to the major leagues and I want him on my rosters in twenty twenty five. You're the prospect guru. Talk about Cam Smith for all the people out there.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I think he's a guy. If he didn't make the roster, we'll be talking about in April in May, we'll be talking about like he's got to come out. An interesting take too, if the Astros really want to take it to the value of you know what they're getting back from the Kyle Tucker is, let Cam Smith break with the team and if he were to win Rookie of the Year, they would acquire a first round

pick under that. I think it's the program. So if you have a prospect they have to like essentially break camp or play within the first like you know, ten days or whatever. They'd be advantageous to do it, especially because of what they've done with the roster. They didn't go and re sign Bregmann, they didn't bring somebody else in Pradies can go and play second and al Tuves

looks to be a left fielder now. So it feels like they've done everything they can to make it work for Cam Smith, not a non roster inviting in Brandon Rodd.

Speaker 1

There's clearing the path. I agree. And you know what else is interesting too, You can't even bet him right now for Rookie the Year. He wasn't even on the board this weekend, which I think that's going to change very quickly. But to your point, like, what are we doing here, if we're the Astros, if you could drop this guy in this order, and it reminds me of whenever the Longoria kind of made that jump and it kind of shocked everybody, but he proved that he just

belonged right away, like every Longoria was ready. That's the last time in recent memory of you know, and that was a long time ago. That was that fifteen years ago. I don't know where we're at, but that's kind of I feel like where we're at with this, where some guys are just ready. Cam Smith's probably not going to break with the club, but if he does, it wouldn't shock me at all. Dude.

Speaker 2

Yeah, And I think the biggest thing probably holding him back has been strikeout issues which he had in college and stuff like that. But I mean, I would say, if they feel that they've got that covered, this is

a college bat who moved up some levels. If I know, it's the Angels and we laugh, But if the Angels are going to consider a guy like Christian Moore coming up and breaking camp with the team, I think I think more teams have to consider this with guys like cam Smith, just simply because of the return, the potential returns that you can have on it, and if it doesn't work out early on, you send him down and

you can still control. There's still some contract control you can have if you don't bring him back up if he shows he's super not ready. But that's the battle. You have the Jackson Holidays who proved to be kind of epic disasters, and then you have the guys at work from day one. I'd love to see it, but if not, like what we said earlier, Winter, take Cam

Smith at the end of your draft. Then if he gets sent back down, then just put him on your watch list for when he gets pushed up to Triple A, because he'll be up this year.

Speaker 1

Yeah, last note here before we get out of town today. Unfortunate to use for the Yankees. They will be without Garrett Cole for the year. He's having Tommy John surgery. Now, wel I'm leading off last year. I might have gone on the record once or twice saying that this was going to end poorly for Garrett Cole. Everybody told me I was crazy. I was crazy, and then look he did finish the year they went to the World Series, all that stuff. He never looked comfortable to me. He

never looked like vintage Garrett Cole. I don't think anybody shocked. I think this is probably why they pushed for that Max freed and overpaid, so they knew they had somebody else. So on the weekend before this news officially broke, I already bet the Boston Red Sox to win that division, and I feel pretty good about the plus three sixty. I think I got ed or three fifty. It was pretty good spot there. That's moved obviously since then. But look,

this is a huge blow of the Yankees. You lose Juan Soto, you lose Garrett Cole in keeper leagues is crushing news. I think it really forces the Yankees' hand to go out there and make a move for another starter sooner than later, because Marcus Stroman and the answer he just not. So how do you recover from this? If you're the Yankees? Here are you? Are you dangerously close to losing the window of the prime Garrett Cole

and Aaron Judge. Has that just been shut? Was the high point last year's World Series?

Speaker 2

One thing I want to clean up? Has it been because he's going for a second opinion? Has that second opinion been conferred? I just wanted to point that out. He's gonna have Tommy John. The first thing has been Tommy John. There's a second report out that's saying that he just wants a confirmation and then if that is most likely, he is going to be out for the year. Also to mention Gean, Carlos Stanton is a disaster and looks like he's out for the year and they've lost

Louis Heel. Louise Heel is going to be out. I don't believe you can throw for six to eight weeks and then he'll start a throwing program. So that's been a disaster. So yeah, back to your question.

Speaker 1

Well, the first opinion to answer yours was Jim Bowden saying that they already got news that he was recommended the first opinion for Tommy John. So second opinions. Has there ever been a second opinion where they didn't get it? No? No, what's coming here?

Speaker 2

When you're going for second opinion on Tommy John? It never ends. Well, we just wanted to clean that up just a tiny bit. But yeah, I think you look at like three key players out of this lineup. Are you hurting? This isn't the Angels with Prime Judge and Prime trout like, they're not squandering it. They're just it's getting messed up.

Speaker 1

You know.

Speaker 2

They couldn't bring Sodo back, and their star pitcher ends up having Tommy John their big young rookie of the year stud he's injured. So it's just it is. It's unfortunate luck. I'm not one hundred percent sure they're squandering it. Where it'll feel squandering is when they don't make any trades.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 2

Ever thing well, when they when they look at guys like you know, Spencer Jones and they don't take any of those assets and go and make a move, you know, and go and try to trade for a Dylan c So they don't do anything like that, that'll feel where it's like squandered. I think the best that they're going to do is they there's a rumor that they reached out to JD. Martinez about the Stanton stuff, but they couldn't come to terms. There's a few guys still left

out there. Kyle Gibson is still out on the market. I think they're just going to put band aids on a broken bone, and it's pretty miss.

Speaker 1

Good news community. He's going to lock in that rotation for a while now, for sure, with all these injuries. But this is a tough situation here for the Yankees, with a lot of expectations. But again, this was inevitable. I told you it was coming. I hate sometimes I don't like being right, but this was already do But I do, but I don't like what I'm right about people being hurt. I'm just trying to do public service for the fantasy community saying it's not going to end well,

and unfortunately it did not end well. But what is going to be great Fantasy Fest. See that transition Wednesday right here on the channel. Make sure you join us here for Fantasy Fest. Make sure you subscribe to the channel. Drop your comments below three pm Eastern ring the belt to that goes Dag and remember when you comment below, give us your favorite late ADP Steel and you might win yourself a John Smaltz autographed jersey. That's right, Good

time's happening, lots of baseball still to play. Hopefully we all stay healthy this year and that'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.

Speaker 3

Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB

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