Hello friends, and welcome in. I'm Chris Welsh, and today here in Fantasy Pros, we're going to be talking about the top ten biggest bus in Fantasy I don't want to be a hater, and even these players I'm gonna give you obviously have got some reason to still draft them, but there's concerns underlying stats, injury worries galore, and the ADP. Overall, it's a little bit dicey. So don't hate me, but I got ten bus that you're gonna need to pay attention to in your drafts if you want to get
it right. If you also want to get it right, make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel below, make a comment, and if you listen in this video, we're going to tell you why and how you're gonna be able to get a little win just by making a comment. So, my friends, let's get to it. It's the top ten biggest bus in fantasy baseball this year. Coming in at number ten is Dansby Swanson, shortstop for the Chicago Cubs. Cubs fans, don't hate me, but I'm gonna pick on
your newest acquisition. Swanson's coming off a great year in Atlanta and a lot of fantasy value, though was propped up by those stolen bases with a significant uptick and runs in RBI, But now he's off to Chicago with what you would probably easily say is a worse offense. The bat Projection system has him losing eighteen runs and five stolen bases. Swanson that he's serviceable two to seventy seven batting average, but an expected batting average of two
point fifty seven. This while also running a high babbub of three forty eight, which was the third highest of his career. Fun fact, anytime his babeb was under three p forty eight, his average would sink. This doesn't mean he's not going to be valuable, but where he's going in drafts is pretty high. Fantasy prose ADP shows dance By Swanson going at seventy five overall and even as
high as seventy two overall on CBS. Maybe he is the end of a tier of good shortstops, but there are quite a few other players that could be drafted behind him, Wander Franco, Tommy Edmund, Andres Jimenez. Dance By Swanson can still be a good fantasy contributor, but at the cost and the downturn in his potential, I'm confident in calling him a bust. Coming in at number nine is Tyler O'Neil, outfielder for the Saint Louis Cardinals. There's pretty much only two outcomes that are going to happen
with this. I'm going to be one hundred percent right or egg on my face. He only had fourteen homers, fourteen stolen bases, and he was in the fifties on runs in RBI. Now most projection systems see him having quite a rebound, but he's in a little bit of a fight for his job in spring training. As a matter of fact, they moved him in a fight with
Dylan Carlson for center field. O'Neil last year was in the bottom sixteenth percentile in the league and strikeout rate WIF rate was in the bottom twelve percentile in the league. And by the way, his hard hit percentage tanked went from fifty two percent in twenty twenty one down to forty three percent this past year. Exit velocities max average lower. He just made a lot worse contact, and he did a lot of his damage off of fastballs. He could
not hit breaking balls or off speed pitches. He's a physical freak, and that's why I say, if he's right, gotta be wrong because he's going to steal bases, gonna hit big homers. But the problem is that consistent contact is a major question. A lot of people are giving him passes over all of this, especially projection systems. But I'm not going to when we go look at adp at one oh one, he's going out head of Suzuki, Christian Yelich, Jake McCarthy, even Taylor Ward. I'm gonna pass.
Let somebody else be right or wrong on Tyler O'Neill. It's not gonna be me. Let me ask you something, How would you like to unlock your full fantasy draft potential with our cheat sheet creator at fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard. You would, of course say goodbye to endless hours of research. With the cheat sheet Creator, you're going to easily access expert rankings and projections and customize your draft sheet to fit your league's settings for a
clear advantage over your competitors. Try the cheat sheet Creator today and take your fantasy game to the next level. At fantasypros dot com slash Draft Wizard Okay more bus. Coming in at number eight is Kansas City Royals relief pitchers Scott Barlow. This one actually isn't about the quality of the player. It's more about the situation and the price that you're paying for relief pitchers. The Kansas City
Royals brought in a role as Chapman. No. Chapman has some of his own concerns about getting gigs, but it's hard to believe that, based on the options that he had in free agency, that he would be coming to the Royals to not close. Why would you pick the Royals. It's because you've got a closing gig at least, so I assume he's going to be given the opportunity to close.
Where Scott Barlow is a very very good reliever, but he might be used in some of those higher leverage situations in the eighth inning, maybe even getting some saves. I'm not saying he won't get saves, but even projections at this point are saying that the best option right now is twenty saves. That's according to the BAT drafting closers without assurances are a little bit of a problem, and you may want to take closers that have guarantees
early on. I think this is a recipe for a bust, especially when you're talking about Scott Barlow going inside the top one fifty. I'm going to pass and say no thanks, and the people that draft him in the top one fifty, they're gonna feel it. That's a bust. Number seven Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddie Peralta. He's always enticing. We know the strikeout numbers, but fel To under ten k per nine, walks over three per nine, hit a three five ERA with an x FIP that was around the three to
six range. If you're digging deeper. His sierra was also in the relative same range. All of these things aside. Freddy Pearlta obviously has some electric stuff with big strike up potential we've seen in the past, but he is injury prone. Plagued, doesn't really matter. Paralta just never pitches. He hasn't pitched more than one hundred and forty four innings in a season, and he has five of them under his belt. As a matter of fact, he's only pitched one hundred in one season. Look at the pitchers
that are going below him. Jesus Lozardo Joe Ryan, Dustin May, Lucas Giolito on the bounce back, Chris Sale. All of those are smashing yeses for me over Paralta right now, because unfortunately he's frail and at the end of the day he might be one injury away from hitting the bullpen. Though he might not be the most expensive player, we are going to label him a bust. Number six is Luis Robert, outfielder for the Chicago White Sox who has
never played one hundred games in a season. That's right, obviously, Luise Robert is wildly talented player who's lowered to strike up percentage all three seasons of his career. He has a three hundred season under his belt, which is nice. He's hit over two eighty twice, He's stole in some bases, he's hitting homers, but he does not stay healthy. Even
when healthy, the numbers still don't add up. If you want to look at the projections for a minute, Let's move over to ATC, which has an aggregate system of all the different projections. In one hundred and twenty six games, the projection is twenty homers, fifteen stolen bases with a solid batting average. That's his best case scenario with Luis Robert. We don't have anything for us that can say that Luis Roberts best case scenario is one hundred and fifty games.
Because we don't get there. You're paying a top fifty costs. If he played one hundred and fifty games. Okay, great, but he's going like six spots below Randy or ros Arena, who has two twenty twenty seasons under his belt. He's going above Cedric Mullins, Jazz Chisholm, who moved to the outfield. No thanks, no thanks, Luise Robert. He's fun, but the numbers do not add up. Before we get to my
top five biggest bus for twenty twenty three. Want to win a free one year premium upgrade to everything Fantasy Pros has to offer, Well, all you've got to do is subscribe to the Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube channel right now and comment below on this video and that's it. Whether you're looking for custom mock drafts, salary cap draft tools, or in depth analysis of your fantasy performance, Fantasy Pros Premium has the tools to help you win. Unlock the
most powerful fantasy tools in the industry. Don't want to wait for the giveaway. Sign up today at fantasypros dot com, slash premium and start playing smarter, not harder. Now let's get to the top five. Coming in at number five is Stephen Kwan, outfielder for the Guardians. What you're doing in twenty twenty three is you are chasing Stephen Kwan's stolen bases from twenty twenty two, still nineteen. Fun fact, he's still twenty over his entire minor league career leading
up to this. Now that's not to say that it cannot continue. It just seems unlikely that it'll continue. And let's say it does. Even he's still an empty homer and asset he provides no homers, so at best that also includes RBI. At best, he's a three category player. Are those runs elite? No, they're not. So now we're looking at maybe a two elite category player with the idea that those stolen bases do continue. Does that equate to the price. I don't think so. Bat X says
those stolen bases are going to be at thirteen. It's hard to imagine six homers, thirteen stolen bases with a solid average, low runs in RBI being worth close to top one fifty, yet he's going right around one hundred. He's a great real life player, but not as good of a fantasy player. He is a bust. Coming at number four is brave starting pitcher Kyle Wright. What he did last year for fantasy was phenomenal getting where he got him probably was a league winner, especially when you
get twenty one wins. But last year you got him for free. This year right outside the top one hundred. Here's something I'm gonna promise you, Kyle Wright will not win twenty one games this year, and so much of his fantasy value was attached to those wins. He had a solid RA three nineteen, but he had an expected ERA that was closer to four. It was three eight nine.
You're paying for last year's price, and if you look at the ADPs like we've done, you've got Clayton Kershaw, Blake Snell, George Kirby all going after Kyle Wright on overall ADP. Thanks, but no thanks. I'm going to pass on trying to buy the wins again for Kyle Wright. Coming in at number three is Carlos Korea, shortstop for the Minnesota Twins. Hey third times a charm you know, like finding a team, signing a contract, getting a physical to actually go through, and he comes in at number three.
I always liked his game in general, but kind of like we've talked about with a few other of these, there are injury worries. Two teams could not pass him on a physical after signing him to a massive contract. That is a giant red flag. Plus the numbers don't ever really quite twenty two Homers at shortstop is okay, runs an RBI not that great. He's only had really one good year with those running RBI and I was
in Houston in twenty twenty one. Shortstop also might be the deepest position, though I do believe there are some red flags over it actually is telling me to tell you take the shortstops that are higher. One thing that jumps out to me for this is taking shortstop higher with less of the risk. There's a reason some of these guys are back here and as tempting is Carlo's Korea. Is one thing I am trying to avoid at all costs is taking players at the front end of my
draft this year that already have injury concerns. Maybe he's playing in spring training, but two team doctors had major concerns about him. I'm going to have the same thing. Unfortunately, Carlos Korea is bus number three. Coming in at number two is another shortstop. Tim Anderson shortstop for the Chicago White Sox. When he is out there, he's a fantasy asset when he's out there. Twenty twenty one, he had seventeen homers, eighteen stolen pass. The next full season before that,
which was twenty nineteen, eighteen homers, seventeen stolen bases. That's okay, you know it's stunk. One hundred and twenty three games. Eighteen was the last time he had a full season. It's been four years since he's played over one hundred and twenty three games. Yes he can steal, Yes he can hit. The batting average is really solid. He's just not out there and that is my main problem with him overall. Plus, the Fantasy Pro's ADP shows a little
bit of a lower number. I believe in the eighties to nineties, but if you take ESPN off of that, you see him going in the seventies in multiple different markets. That's a major concern for a major injury liability that people are jumping in on. I can find a home for Tim Anderson, but what I can't do is find it at shortstop. I would like Tim Anderson to be more of a middle reliever because there's a lot of
inherent injury risk. And what a player like Carlos career Tim Anderson actually do for you is they change from your draft strategy where you can't take them if you take an injury risk, or you just have to be aware of it overall. So as funnest Tim Anderson can be, I think he's more of a crutch for a lot of people that don't take the corea as say, oh, I'll get Tim Anderson, it'll be good for maybe one hundred games in it. Number one is Lance McCuller, starting
pitcher for the Houston Astros. We haven't talked about a lot of the obvious names here. I tried to go a little bit deeper and bigger. If Joe we're here, you'd have heard bust In and de Grom. But Lance McCullers might be one of the scariest fantasy players overall, because we always talk ourselves into it. We already have information that he is not going to be able to break camp with the team and play an opening day. There can be exciting stuff, but the walks have gone up,
the strikeouts have gone down. Mcculler's had a career best two twenty seven ERA this past year, but an x FIP of three fifty eight. That's quite a big jump. This one might not seem as obvious to a lot of people, but this one was to me. I feel like this is the one I least went out on a limb on to tell you that Lance McCullers is a bust because you're still paying a decently high capital for him. When people are trying to get starting pitchers,
he's already hurt. A lot of people are staring at Jacob deGrom is the biggest concern, but to me, Lance mccullors is the biggest bust the twenty twenty three season. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast. Follow us on Twitter at Fantasy Pros MLB, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy PROSMLB.