Hello, everybody, Welcome into the cycle.
I am Ryan Warmley, joined as always by Mike Mayer. I will try and get through this episode totop coughing too much. I am in the I think the early stages of cold.
I don't know what it is.
My throats father and me father. The best I can here to power through and give you guys the Fantasy Baseball goodness that you have come to appreciate each and every week. I hope if you guys like this content, the best freeway to show your support and encourage more content like this is to leave a positive review at fantasypros dot com slash MLB review And as I mentioned every week, if you leave a question in your review, may Or and I will be sure to answer it in the following week's episode.
Just let everybody know stick around.
Later in the show, I have a conversation with our friend and colleague Chris Welsh. We talk about Paul Skeins, we talk about Christian Scott, we talk about Jackson Holliday, we talk about Jason Demingez. We'll talk about some other prospects to stash now that schemes is up. It's a pretty good conversation so definitely check around that in the second half of the show. Start off, as we always do with rounding the bases.
Mayor.
I was playing softball last night and then I saw a message from you that said, well, I guess we need to talk about Ronelle Blanco on tomorrow's show. And I said why in my head, and I went and looked it up. I was like, did he get hurt? You know, did he get shelled? Turns out he's been cheating. I mean I say that kind of tongue and cheek. It's like, not entirely clear. He has been suspended for ten days by Major League Baseball. They found substance on his arm and it was checked and he was out
of the game, and, like I said, now suspended. What's really interesting in situations like this for me is less looking backwards at you know, trying to figure out how much of what he had done this season was related to the cheating, intentional or otherwise or whatever, you know, like looking at spin rates and things like that. I saw Welsh tweeting about this. Actually it's more about looking forward. What do we expect out of him when he returns.
So that's kind of where I'm at. What was your initial takeaway when you saw this and what are you thinking about now a day later.
Well, my initial takeaway was, oh, no, he's my two star pitcher against Ryan for this week, so I have to I guess I'm going to automatically lose. And that's one of the main reasons I initially messaged you. I was like, well, got to talk about this. What a disaster for me. I've also I'm also someone who has kind of not been high on renal bloca.
But like when he kind.
Of broke out and had just no hitter, we talked about him, and I think most of the industry just kind of agreed. You know, this is this is kind of a fluke thing. It's not gonna last. He's going to turn back into a pumpkin. And then he's where eight starts in and the number. You know, there are some obviously concerning underlying numbers, but you know, his actual numbers continue to be really good, and there are some some signs that, you know, like we talked about the
change up and you know that stuff. But now I feel like I don't know anything. It's hard to know what to believe.
You know.
It's like you said, has he been cheating all along? You know, is this a one off thing? And you know everyone is you know, I've seen everyone kind of talking about the spin Rate's like nothing was noticeably different in this start. Does that mean he wasn't really cheating? Does it mean he's always been cheating? Like I feel like I don't know what to believe now, and it's like he already was kind of a cell high, and now it's like, can you even you know, the CBS
guys were talking about this. Can you know he was a cell high? But now can you is he now a by low? Because maybe you just you know, someone's like, oh, you know, they got to get out from underneath the Renel Blanco. Maybe you can just get him for nothing, or because they're concerned about this. You know, it's only a short suspension, but it's like, you know, they're obviously you know, we already had concerns and now no one really can believe anything.
I'll tell you this, I will buy low now emphasis on low. It needs to be low, but I'll buy low and say, listen to his era is like two what is it two oh nine?
This season?
I know that, like you said, there's some underlying stuff, but almost a strikeout. And again, in the modern landscape of pitching, like taking a chance that this was kind of like some fluke like mix of sweat or whatever. Like I'm not going to pretend to sit here and say, like I definitively know like what he was attending, what was actually happening, et cetera, et cetera, and it might you know, not not pan out. Maybe he has been cheating all along and now he's going to turn back
into a pumpkin. Maybe he was always going to turn back into a pumpkin because he's thirty years old, having this late career breakout, and we just expect those guys to regress.
I don't know.
But if I can truly buy low and get him for like essentially nothing, which I don't think is possible everywhere, but I think it's definitely possible in some places, I'm happy to do that and take that swing and say, you know, best case scenario, he comes back and he is the guy that he has been the first month and a half of the season, and it's kind of like a key cog in my fantasy rotation.
Worst case I didn't give up much to get him.
I think you know, if you asked me, you know, buy, seller, hold, the correct answer is probably hold. I would think I would not be selling low. You obviously can't sell high right now. I would not be selling low. I would be buying low or holding if I already have him.
What do you think?
Yeah, I would agree with that. I think you have to hold and not sell low.
I mean, it's if he comes back and stinks up the place, you're gonna sell low or have to drop him anyway. But there's not really much to gain by selling low now. I do want to mention I saw A. J. Pruzinski talking about this today and he had some pretty
strong feelings which I kind of agreed with. And he just talked about the whole process of of you know, flagging these pictures and how an umpire gonna be like, yeah, that's sticky stuff like throw and not only do you throw them out of the game, he's automatically suspended for ten games. And he was he was arguing, we have the science to figure this out, like we can tell if that was rosen or not, Like it's not hard, you know, like give us a swab and by tomorrow morning we'll know if it was you.
Know, we'll know what the substance is.
And he kind of made the case like you can just have an umpire with a grudge against the pitcher, and knowing what we know about these umpires and some of their you know, opinions and attitudes and just general personalities, that's not necessarily something that you know, is out of the realm of possibility that someone could just like have a grudge against someone and there's just no checks and balance.
As you just said, Yep, that's sticky stuff. I don't think it's sweat.
I think I think you're cheating and you're out of this game and ten games suspension. I thought that was an interesting point, and I think I agree with him.
If you are waiting on public checks and balances for Major League Baseball umpires, you're gonna be.
Waiting a long time.
That's fair.
We'll tell you that. Yeah.
I mean, he's been one of the more interesting stories of the start of the season. Like, like, obviously the no hitter really like boosts the kind of profile around a guy. But like to your point, he has been really consistent since then too for a bad Astros team. He he is four and oh for a team that is not winning a lot of games, so it's pretty significant. And I'm really curious, really curious to see what he
looks like when he's back on the mound. Like I said, I'm happy to I won't be starting him that first start back.
I don't even care who he's facing.
He will not be he will be on my bench, but I want him on my roster just just in case. And this is kind of a fluke or again some sort of incidental mixing of whatever, and that really really quickly, what do you think about the hitters who said when this offers started happening like that they kind of like some of the sticky stuff just to make sure the pitcher like had control over the ball and wasn't going to be like you know, slipping around and throwing kind of haphazardly.
What do you think about that?
Well, yeah, I mean it's a real I don't want to say pet peeve, but it really annoys me that
baseball changes the ball so much. And you've seen there are other leagues, like I think the KBO does it where they have like a pre tacked ball, like the ball is already sticky, and I think everyone is kind of with that you know, obviously hitters have to deal with some better breaking pitches, but they're also not just going to get you know, pitches in the side of their neck because the slider doesn't slide kind of a thing, and you don't have to worry about all this stuff.
And you know, there's also some argument to be made that some of the sticky stuff is a result you know, or lack they're like how slick the balls are is resulting in some injuries. I forget if it was last year of the year before we saw a ton of pitchers start to go down with like blisters and stuff
that they were having trouble with the new baseballs. And I think in the lower one of the lower minor league levels where they kind of like start to experiment with all these things, I think they're already using a pre tacked ball. So I hope, you know, just for the sake of the game, I hope they maybe bring that to Major League Baseball and we get, you know, less variance between baseballs and just kind of have a pre tact ball that everyone you know is agreement that you know, these work.
Next topic here, U stat Cast really interestingly released swing tracking data.
So this is stuff like the.
That speed on the swing, the that length in terms of how short the swing is, you know, how compact it is versus how long it is. Stuff about the number of blasts you have, which is kind of like squaring up a ball but with a certain you know, you know, exsit velocity slash bat speed. I haven't memorized all the numbers yet, but it's that kind of thing
which is really interesting. You know. Obviously, every year it seems like we're kind of learning more and more about the game, and specifically getting more and more numbers about the game, and you know, seeing like obviously, if you and I were to sit down before we ever saw a single one of these metrics and guess who do you think has the fastest like that swing in baseball, it would not have been long before we mentioned John
Carlos Stanton, and he's number one by a lot. He is like a couple miles per hour ahead of the rest of you know, anybody else in baseball. So there's not really like one or two guys I want to highlight here, if you want to, please go ahead.
I just wanted to kind of ask.
Just your general takeaways. Were their names that stuck out to you the application of this. Do you see a use for fantasy managers? Do you see a use for baseball managers? Is this just kind of a novelty fun thing to look at. What was your reaction to a seeing this, that this data exists, and be any particular data points that sit out to you?
Yeah? So I kind of had a lot of takeaways.
But I don't want to just talk forever and put everyone to sleep, because it's probably what would happen if you listen to me talk about swing tracking data for ten minutes. But yeah, like you, I'm not going to go through through a ton of the names. It was really interesting to see, you know, obviously John carol Stan.
Has the highest average bat speed.
I also thought it was really funny if you looked at you know, they have things like average batspeed and then also like your fast swing rate, like how often your swing rate is above seventy five miles per hour And he's at ninety eight percent so pretty much all of his swings. And it also really made me laugh just looking at like you know, you mentioned like the squared up percentages in the blast, which is you know,
an interesting metric. I also thought It was really interesting that they went with pitching Ninja, who invented this term swords, where which is just like these really kind of embarrassing swings, where like you just kind of get full on a pitch and you almost don't like finish your swing. It's just an embarrassing kind of mess up, and you know, you're just like, yeah, you got me on that one.
Joe Krolstan has zero of those because he just always finishes his swings as hard as he can, whether he's fulled or not, whether he misses the ball by three feet, he's swinging as hard as he can and he's not stopping. So I thought it was funny that he just swings rate swings fast ninety eight percent of the time and has zero swords, despite you know, being someone who strikes out a lot and that's two hundred.
He just always swings as hard as he can.
He's such a crazy outlier.
His average swing is eighty point six miles per hour, almost three miles per hour faster than anybody else.
That is a massive gap.
Three miles per hour might not sound like a lot, it is ginormous. Also, about twenty two percent of swings across the reached the seventy five mile per hour threshold is ninety eight percent of the time. Like you just mentioned, it's like almost quadruple what the average is across the It's more than quadruple in my mag it's more than quadruple with the.
Average across the league. It's it's a wild outlier.
Yeah, one of the more interesting names. You know, there there were some some obvious kind of names you would you would expect to see, like Luisa Ariah's had, you know, a very slow bat speed but a really kind of like quick compact swing.
Well, well to that point quickly before you mentioned the next name. He leads, He led the league. I was reading in the ESPN article, So there's so many of these new stats. I'm trying to remember which ones I was looking at. But Arias I believe he leads. It was it is the slowest swing. But he also leads in squaring uprate I believe it is, which is really interesting to me because that is such a profile of a contact here.
Yeah, that's what it is.
His squared up rate forty three and a half percent, a best in base ball while also having the slow spats. So like he is doing he is basically every at bad of his is me growing up. When I two strikes on me, it's like the classic, like choke up, just get the barrel on the ball and tried square up the ball somewhere and don't swing too hard.
That's him all the time.
Yeah, yeah, exactly, And yeah there's a There was a good write up about it an ESPN, which I encourage people to read. The Athletic also did one which is pretty good. Yeah, I read the one by Jef Passon.
I don't want to like steal all of his his names and whatever, but it was it was interesting that there were some some names you wouldn't really expect and some names you would expect, you know, like Juan Soto and choh Tani were up there, like you know, shocking, and they have really good swings and you know, kind of a really good approach at the plate. William Contraras was like surprisingly maybe the best hitter in baseball with like more blast than anyone else.
That was, you know, kind of a niame that jumped out.
What I'm really interested to see with this data because when it first came out, it was it was a lot to digest and I wasn't even sure like how you know, before I really like dove in and you know, read the breakdowns and just let look the numbers of myself. I wasn't sure like how actionable this would be for fantasy.
And I do think there.
Are gonna be times where we kind of get a little carried away with like, oh, look, he only has a seventy four mile an hour average bat speed kind of thing, because there's going to be outliers that just
like don't really fit neatly into this data. It for me, it is going to be interesting as we start to get into year over year data for this when you see someone like it would be interesting to see because because like this is pretty new data, and it's new in the sense of like there are more cameras and
stuff that they're that they're looking at. So we don't really have like a lot of year over year data right now unless I'm misunderstanding all of this, But it'll be interesting to see going forward year over your data if if numbers for a certain player drastically change, and you know that player is like getting better or is like struggling, Like it would be interesting to see like a you know, like a corporate Carol, you know, is his bat speed or the length of his swing drastically different?
And I also the next thing is I want to see this kind of stuff which I think we're gonna see infugi yeers added to the minor leagues, which is gonna be kind of terrifying in the sense that we're just gonna treat all these prospects like robots with like
everyone with like the highest metrics. Whenever we add stat cast to minor league ballparks, is just gonna kind of just be like whoever has the best the highest bat speed and sprint speed, and everything's just gonna automatically like be the ones we're talking about with when when we start to like fade away from actual production. But uh yeah, this stuff is gonna be interesting going forward, for sure.
We you gave me a hard time last week about kind of posing the rhetorical rhetorical question of is shohe
tany the best hitter in baseball? Some of the bat speed stuff shows it like it actually might be one so too, because his is like in if you look at like kind of the quadrant, he like stands really far ahead in the right and up quadrant, which is like the best one to be in in terms of you know, bat speed, and I think it was length the swing was the other was on the y axis, but like square it up ratest, like all of them,
sotos is really high. The one last note that I will take from Jeff Passen's article because he put it on Twitter and I thought it was a fantastic nugget. The average bat speed for the best hitter in Major League Baseball this season called you know show Eatani seventy five point four miles per hour.
The average bat speed for the worst.
Hitter in Major League Baseball this season Javier Baiaz seventy five point four miles per hour.
Exactly identical.
So that is as good a nugget as any to tell you that bat speed is not everything.
Yeah, and that's where it's really interesting when they compare like the bat speed and the fast swing rate and the length of the swing, which is another, you know, something that we're gonna have to pay attention to, because there's a difference between a real because you know, even when we look at John Carlos Stan he has the fastest or the highest however you want to ward at bat speed, he also has the longest swing length. It takes him the longest for his whole swing to kind
of get through the zone. So like the bat's moving fast but or sorry second slowest behind I your bias shockingly enough, but you know, it's more about just like the you know, how big your swing is, Like it's moving quickly, but you're also like it's just an enormous swing. So it's kind of you know, I think that's why he's such a boomer bust kind of swinger.
Yeah, let's go to our next topic here.
I'm sure we might have more takeaways on some of this swing data later on in the season, but I think that's, you know enough for now. Next topic here, there was an article on MLB dot com some of the likeliest players to be dealt by the trade deadline. I have somebody who I know you there have to be two sides to every trade, and you need a willing partner. But I always hate when teams who are obvious buyers wait until like mid July, because I'm like, you know, what the Orioles need right now is a
back end of the bullpen arm. Go trade for them now and don't give away eight more games between now and the end of July, because you haven't overworked and incompetent back end of the bullpen, like go make the move now. And so it really bothers me when teams wait again. I get it that the other teams need to be willing to sell, but I just wish that we would see moves sooner. We already saw with the rias you know, early on this year, but I want to see more and more earlier in in you know,
in the summer and in the trade deadline. So going through this article, there's a bunch of names. I don't think we need to like highlight every one of them specifically, but you know it's names like from all the kind of usual suspect teams you would imagine, the Angels, the A's, the Cardinals, the Rockies, the White Sox, the Marlins.
So you know, some of the names.
Just to quickly read through that, the article highlighted Joe Addell Mason Miller obviously. You know he's a guy I'd love to see in Baltimore. You know who wouldn't love
to see them on their team? You know, Aaron Otto, Charlie Blackman, you know Tanner, Scott Hasslizardo, Luis Robert Kopek, Alex Bregman is listening to the article, which I think that might be a bridge too far, But any of these namestep stand out to you, and you know what do you kind of think about where we stand, you know, a couple months out from the trade deadline.
So when I see an article like this, the first thing I try to kind of piece together or just imagine the hypotheticals in my mind is who on the list from a fantasy perspective has the most to gain, Like, who could you potentially acquire in fantasy now before a trade?
Who their value is going to go up, Like they're going to go to a better lineup, or they're going to go to a you know, just a better like if they're especially if they're a picture, if they're going to go to a better team, have more run support, have better defense behind them, potentially win more games kind of thing, And just you know who could probably just use a change of scenery.
I think you mentioned Alex Bragman.
He's probably you know, his numbers don't look good enough despite his big game the other day. Don't know if a change of scenery is going to matter that much for him, the Astros should be a lot better than they are. It's not like he's in a bad lineup. He's in a good lineup. But just I'm not really sure what's going on there, Joe Adallas.
I'm not really expecting the Astros to sell like that. Just maybe I'm just it's just so ingrained in my head that they're always in the alcs. But it's just it's weird for me to imagine this iteration of the roster that they, like you said, they should be better than they are. I just I can't imagine that two months from now they'll be selling.
But maybe I'm wrong.
Yeah, I think they would.
I think they would need to continue, and like you said, they're not going to be one of those teams that sells early. They're going to ride this into the ground and only sell that they have to, you know, late July. Joe Adell is a name that kind of is interesting just because of his like he's kind of breaking out finally, but he's in He's not in a great lineup.
Trout's gonna be out for a while.
I promise I won't interrupt you on all these guys, but I do just have to say on Adell, Like, I would be really wary of trading for him. Uh, absolutely, because not even about just like the past, but like, let's say you even believe that it's that the breakout is one hundred percent legit, and you're like.
Wait, I mean trading Wait, I'm gonna interrupt you now, and the tables have turned. Yeah, do you mean wary of trading him as a fantasy manager or as an MMV team?
Both?
And I'm wary of trading for him in both because even if you I'm worried of trading for him in fantasy if you expect him to be traded away from the Angels, and I'm wary of trading for him in real life. You know, if you're any team not the Angels, I think I might have said, oo, the Angels.
Because even if you believe it.
Is one hundred percent legitimate and this is a real breakout and he is now this hitter, I worry that it took him so long to get to that point in Los Angeles that whatever they did to work with him, like, I think it's probably meaningful given all the struggles he had before, And I would be really scared of him
changing sceneries. You know, it's it's like like the opposite of Bregmann, Like I would be really worried about a change of scenery negatively impacting him, even if you think the breakout is real in Los Angeles?
Is that?
Does that make sense? Am I like kind of maybe overthinking it? Or would you be happy to trade him even if he gets traded in fantasy versus reality?
I think it's fair. I think there's a lot to worry about.
You know, we already kind of talked about Joe Odell, and you know, everything looks kind of good, but it's looked so bad for so long that it's hard to believe this is just a whole new Joe Odell.
I think you would have to be.
Confident in wherever he's like being traded to, and kind of you know, it's impossible to like know all this stuff off the back, you know, just in the back of your mind of just you know, which which kind of teams have like a really good track record of
developing these young you know, these young hitters. The Angels are probably not one of those teams, So maybe he could go somewhere where they do have a better track record of developing young hitters like the Orioles of a team that has done that it recently, someone who isn't the Rockies, who are just like the poster team of how to not develop prospects, but something like something like that where you would you would have to be like, Okay,
this is good. He's going to go to a better ballpark, a better lineup, and to a team with a track record of developing, you know, young hitters. So I think that would be kind of but even that, like we're talking redraft, like how much of a difference is going to make this season as opposed to like a keeper of dynasty league where you can kind of see, you know, changes going forward.
I would not be going after somebody like Tanner Scott in fantasy because I think if he gets traded it's likely as like a seventh or eighth inning guy in an already good bullpen. I don't think it's likely that he's a closer somewhere else, so I think he would lose value, you know, maybe kind of the same thought for Copek.
I mean some of these other like.
Hayeses Lozardo, you know, would would certainly have a better chance at wins and then another uh, you know team, But it's not like he's you know, it's not like he's somebody that I mean, there's talent that I don't I don't want to like like downplay the talent there, but like it hasn't Quip been there this season, right, So I'm not sure how much value he's bringing, even if there's a better chance for wins.
Yeah.
Yeah, you'd have to hope for like a bounce back to kind of the potential we've seen this. You know, he's like a high ceiling, low flower kind of guy, so it's hard to know what you're going to get there, Michael Michael Kopak, is anything that would be interesting, but he would have to be like you said, like the Tanner Scott situation. I need him to go to a
place where he's closing. And it's like he's probably more likely to be like that multi inning you know, bring him in the six and seven then you know, get six guys out kind of a thing. Even though the White Sox are using him as a closer, and I think that's his future is being a closer. I think the starter experiment is over. Let's let's just make him a closer. He's got the stuff to be a good closer. Let's just lean into that and just let's go have
a career. Michael Kopek, Let's not worry about the starter stuff.
Yeah, his name, you know.
Yeah, maybe he's getting older and would do some you know, do for some negative stuff. But he's like being He's like fine right now in a lineup that is not fine around him.
The most intriguing name by a mile in this article is Mason Miller. Oh yeah, do you think he gets moved? I have no idea what the what the a's are, What wouldn't even take to get him, because like the a's are bad and you and you generally want to cap I know they like had a hot streak greasely, but like you generally, if you're a bad team want
to capitalize on a strong reliever season. That's like a really straightforward way to improve your organization is to if you're a bad team, trade a good reliever for whatever haul.
You can get. Mason Miller is ridiculous.
He is like that one of the nastiest closers stretches I've ever seen in my life. And I watched twenty sixteen Zach Brittain. He is ridiculous under control for a while, there's bin injury stuff in the past. Obviously, the way he throws, it's like, you know, you don't really expect to like to last forever. But again, like just using the oils as an example, a guy like Heston Kerstad is blocked. He's a top twenty five prospect in baseball.
He's ready for the big leagues. Like, I don't even know if that would be considered a reasonable for the A's or not, because it's just kind of a unique situation combining all these factors that aren't typically combined.
And what you said there is kind of the kind of the issue is because the the rumors all along, because I think this came up months ago with like, oh, maybe they could look to move Mason Miller because they're ridiculous and the apparently the asking price has been astronomical, so it's like they're just kind of like floating him out there. Okay, if you want to make us an off where we can't refuse, like we're the A's, we'll
do anything. We'll get nuts. And I think the other thing that you mentioned there that could be potentially interesting is I think if you're well, I guess it would depend like the team like the Orioles would make not the like I want to, you know, break my own rule and talk about the Ools on the show. But a team like the Orioles could make a lot of sense, and in the sense that they're set up for a long competing window.
Here they have some pretty good pitching depth.
They could use more starting pitching depth, but like they have, you know, like you said, in a fundance of young hitters. And I think for a lot of teams you would almost have to like wonder if you're acquiring Mason Miller, like do you view him as a high end starter going forward or just as a reliever. And the Oriels are a team that could be like, we're happy with
him as like a lockdown reliever. We don't need to worry about him making a starter, whereas I think other teams they might want to kind of look at him as like a twenty twenty four closer, but then also a high end starting pitching prospect that we can stretch out and turn into an ace, and that I think in order to match what the A's want, it might be what you have to view him as.
Yeah, it's an interesting wrinkle. I mean again, like a team like the Orioles.
You know, next year theoretically Felix Bautista back, so maybe then you maybe even for them, it's like a one year closer. But I mean, like a reliever, this dominant is like actually not that easy to find. Like, good relievers are out there and sometimes they're hard to predict, but they're not hard to find. Relievers at this level
are hard to find. So I'd be perfectly content whether it's the Orioles or anybody, to just see him, just let them say, like, listen, you on a good team could get five hundred saves and also strike out like two batteries an inning for your whole career, Like like just say, look how dominant you are. Why mess with a good thing? I wouldn't be opposed to that, you know, wherever he goes. So he's the really interesting one. Let's move on to our bylow cell high for the week.
I'll go first in the by Low. My favorite by Low actually in the article and everybody should go check it out. Fantasypros dot Com is Matt Olson. However, we just talked about him last week when discussing grading your trade. So rather than talk about him again, I will say my second favorite from the article, which is Boba Schett, And it's less about, you know, with Matt Olsen, there's you know, reasons for optimism from some of the bad etball data. There's not really that with Boba Schett. It's
more just like it's not like he's old. There's a real track record here. He's actually even hard to heat up a bit in the last you know, several days. So I just think he's somebody that again we always say I'm not buying I'm buying low and you're gonna give me a bilo opportunity and a guy who has legitimately struggled this year, but who has the kind of ceiling that we know Bobachett has.
And again it's it's early.
Enough that you can kind of look past a slow start, even if it's not bad luck, it's actually a bad start, and say this guy could easily bounce back. So, like I said, Matt Olson is my favorite from this week's article, but Bobachhet is my second favorite.
Yeah, I like Bobachhet. The thing I like about him and one of the reasons I like him as a by low Is. The concerning thing last year was you know, he was a little banged up and he wasn't running, and it was like, oh no, here we go. This is like the Mike drought syndrome. We have a superstar who broke into the league as like a thirty thirty potential kind of guy, and you know, in his breakout year he went twenty nine to twenty five and everyone
was salvating over the potential there. It was like a high average power speed, like this guy's little package, and he kind of just gradually got worse, like not terribly worse, but like the numbers just kind of went down.
He's been banged up a little.
You know, he's banged up a little bit last year, Like I said, after two really you know, solid years. Batting average has been there up until this year. But he wasn't running in twenty twenty one, twenty five stolen basis,
twenty twenty two, thirteen last year five. So the good The one thing I like to see this year is that he already has four and not that four is a lot, but he only stole five all last year and he already has four, and so that is an encouraging sign that you know he could be getting.
You know, he's not.
It doesn't seem like he's gonna ever go back to that thirty thirty potential. But he could be like a twenty five to fifteen guy with a really good average, and you know, there's just a lot to like there. I'm I'm a big Bobachette fan, so I'd definitely be buying well.
Two, who's your pick here?
So my pick here is actually someone I stole from Welsh. The person I wrote up in the article is Aaron Savale, and I wrote how I'd be going down with the Aaron sa Valet ship and just babbling about needing a larger sample size as we loaded the women and children under the rescue boats. But we've already talked about Arnsavalley on the show a little bit, so we don't need to.
Go back down that road.
So I stole jazz chism from Welsh, and it was because I read his write up and I thought there was an interesting reason. It wasn't necessarily about what we always talk about, which is, you know, like his underlying numbers are much better. This is a clear buy low kind of a thing, which you know, there was a little bit of that, but he he was also speculating that he could be traded, which you know, is a perfect kind of segue to what we just talked about.
You know what, who who could see their value drastically increase if they land in a new environment, and he's a perfect candidate for that.
I don't know if he will be moved, but you similar to.
What we were talking about with the A's, you can't rule out anything the Marlins, do, you know, Like you said before, you hate waiting to see teams wait till July.
They made it trade two weeks ago. They're already ready to roll.
And so I was kind of looking at his contract too, because I was like, well, I feel like he's under control for.
A little while.
Maybe they won't trade him. He is kind of already in his arbitration or not kind of. He is already in his arbitration seasons, which, as we know, your your contract gradually goes up, you know, into the millions.
Every year you're in that.
And the Marlins are notoriously really cheap, and they don't view arbitration years the way that the big market teams view, as you know, affordable years. They view them as these are getting more expensive, like maybe we should start to sell why while we can. It's it's clear from their moves they don't think they're anywhere close to a contention window. So maybe he could be moved in some kind of
blockbuster deal. Or he goes to a really good lineup, bats pretty highly in that lineup, and you know, now we're talking about someone who, just as I already mentioned, he's in a much better situation, probably in a better ballpark, with you know, better run support or you know, better like lineup support around him. I think that's a really intriguing name. So I commend Welsh for that idea, and I gladly steal it from him for the show.
Let's go to the cell highs Now.
I didn't like the cell high options in this week's article, so I picked my Rather than picking my favorite cell high, I picked my least favorite cell high from the article.
And that's Aaron Judge.
We talk a lot about the color of your stat cast page. It's remarkably red. I mean there's a couple you know, obviously, like strikeout rate and with rate are kind of usually high with him, but it is it is pretty dark red across the world. He actually while we were recording this hit a home run four hundred and sixty seven feet tonight. So we were recording this Wednesday, by the way, everyone, not.
Thursday like usual. I mean, he has ten home runs.
You know. The batting average is down at two thirty six, but he's only thirty two. It's not like he's some old man you can't hack it anymore. His bat speed is ninety seven percentile, so clearly he can still swing hard.
I'm maybe not ying high on Judge.
I think that's reasonable, but I'm really not actively looking to sell on Aaron Judge really really at all.
What do you think about Judge?
Yeah, so we kind of talked about him recently and I kind of said that I am not always kind of selling high, but I rarely have shares of Aaron Judge because he goes so high in drafts or so for so much money and auctions, and I'm always kind of the older he gets, the more concerned I am about injury. So I feel like baking an injury concerns would have to be your reason for selling high. And because but if like if you drafted him, you already knew that, So why are you bothering to.
Sell high at this point, I don't have him in a lot of places, to be clear, because I'm similar to you in that he just typically goes higher than I'm comfortable taking on that risk on actual draft day, So I don't really have the opportunity to sell him even if I wanted to. But if I did, again, he's somebody that like, you know what you're getting when you draft him, and I'm not uncomfortable enough with what we've gotten that I'm looking to get out just because he's having a hot streak.
Here to start, May, who's your cell high?
My cell high is Reese Elsen, and I'm I'm saddened to hear that you didn't like my choice of a cell high. I thought we were supporting each other on this show, so why don't I return it to you? Why do you not like Reese Elson as a cell high?
So is to pull the cur I wasn't gonna like point this out once I realized this has happened. I'm actually pulling from our by low sell high article options, not from our featured pros multiple people options. So I was trying to highlight our writer who does bilo sell high every week, Brett USTERI and pick from his where I did not like his sell high options, which were Aaron Judge, Mitch Keller, and Jameson tie On.
So I don't like any of those.
I didn't actually compare to your article or choice. So I'm not saying you made a bad choice. Go ahead and sell me this pen On resource.
He's just I mean, his numbers right now are incredible. He has a two point zero nine ERA.
And an incredible zero to four one lost record.
Yeah, and that's that's kind of the reason for the cell high because you can kind of, you know, sell someone on the on the fact that, look, you know, he's got these incredible numbers, the wins will come. But he is on the Tigers, and he also has you know, he has zero wins. He also has zero home runs allowed, which is both impressive but also incredibly lucky, very scary.
Yeah, that just that kind of luck just isn't going to continue the rest of the season.
Although as I mentioned in the article, he does have a really you know, there are some reasons like he's kind of doing that. He's he's allowing some decent hard contact, but he's he's got a ridiculous fifty five percent ground ball rate, So he is keeping the ball on the ground.
But at the same time, he's not missing a lot of bats.
And so while he's not walking in ton a guy, he's letting up some hard contact no home runs, and kind of keeping them all on the ground. It's it's just not sustainable, you know, when when you're not missing a ton of bats and you're giving up a decent amount of hard contact, it doesn't really matter. Like he's gonna have some blow up starts here. His expected era numbers are like, aren't terrible. Like his actual RA is
two point zero nine. All of his other numbers are between two point five four and three point seven seven, which even if you fully regrets.
To those like, that's still not bad. And so it's not like a you know, it's not like a regular sell or a cell low.
It's a cell high. I want to sell what we what we've seen in the you know, in production, for something better, you know something. And this is sometimes we talk about these trades and we kind of get caught up in like what picture would you want? I like to do the opposite trades. I like to do a picture for a hitter, and I would rather. You know, I think I mentioned I wrote it today, so I'm
trying to remember what I wrote. I think I mentioned I would rather like I would, I would like to swap him for almost like a buy high hitter like a Joe Adele, or a by low hitter like a George Springer.
I think that's fair.
You made a great case, and I'm not gonna say you're wrong about that. Like I said, just drawing from a different article. That's that's how organized we are here. Let's kick it to my conversation with Welsh. Like I said, we dive into a whole bunch of prospects and other young players, and then you and I will come back on the other side.
Back in with Chris Welsh, our guest of the week. We are here for Prospect Corner.
Only one of us who's going to talk to Welsh today, And of course I drew the short straw, so mayor lucked out chat with the Well. No, it is a delight to talk to our friend and coworker, Chris Welsh. We're talking to prospects now Welsh. Last week we were in the middle of recording with Kelly Kirby, who was our guest last week when news dropped that Paul Skens was officially finally getting the call, we had a sense that this was probably, you know, around the horizon. Sometime
soon it finally did happen. So here we are a week later. We have a start to actually look at and react to, and I want to ask you about that and also kind of looking ahead for the rest of the season, just get the chance for the folks to hear your reaction and kind of expectations.
But just off the bat, what did you think of the debut?
You know, four innings, seven strikeouts, give a three earned runs, a home run, a couple of walks. You know, you're not gonna put too much dock in you just one start, right, and it was the kid's major league debut.
But the stuff is unreal. Everybody already knows it.
I mean, I guess let me actually backtrack again and ask you initially, was this the most excited you were for a pitching prospect since Strasburg? That was kind of the comparison point a lot of people were giving. Is that kind of how you felt too.
Yeah, for a pitching prospect? Sure, I mean it's sometimes shooing far between. I will tell you it probably would have been like McKenzie go I loved McKenzie, a huge mackenzie Gore guy. But Gore then kind of fell apart before he made that major league debut. And that's a tough thing. That's that's actually kind of the uniqueness about Paul Skeins is everyone is always picked on top pitching prospects.
Because if you go back and you li ok at just any list, you know, go to pipeline, you go to mine, but you go to like pipeline or something for MLB, and you go back and look top twenty overall prospects for the last like five or six, maybe eight years, and you go and look at like who are the top pitching prospects, Force Whitley, Alex Reyes, McKinsey, Gore. There's failure, but the failure happens before they even hit the majors. The failure happens in the midst of the process.
Paul Skeins wasn't a round for there to be time for failure. But it's such a quick successful run that he made to the major So yeah, from an excitement standpoint, this is the top dog.
Would you say, like maybe even more exciting than Strasburg. I saw that debate going on. For me, Strasburg kind of stands alone. I was also in DC when that debut happened.
Yeah, a little different for you.
I don't really remember.
It's not in my brain like how I felt.
Obviously.
I think his performance was like excitement versus met expectations, like if I'm doing a selfish one, Max sureser, Max sure, I'm a diamondback guy. When Max Scherzer made his debut and he struck out like eight in four innings, like, it was really exciting, So it was kind of near there.
But you know, you also brought up expectations. This is I mean, you know you doing the social here like I did the social video for you, not not to pull a piece of pa here, but I was pretty damn close to right if you look at it, like and then it'll pat myself on the back. But like I said, I thought he was going to go four.
I thought he was in.
I said eight strikeouts, I said, two earned runs and two walks. We're pretty close. Seven strikeouts, three earned runs, two walks. And the reason I thought and the reason why like this didn't surpass or underwhelm my expectations is obviously because like this is what I thought he was
going to do. I thought he was gonna have a little bit, especially in this specific matchup, which I had talked about in some of the social videos, was the Cubs are a team that can drive pitch counts a little bit more like they were little bit in the higher range. I think close to ten percent overall walk rate they put up. And Skeens is a guy that obviously is going to pump a fastball, but like he also drives counts. I think he went over five once
in the minor leagues. He had gotten to seventy five pitches at the tippy top. Like it's not Blake Snell. But I don't know if Skeens is going to be a guy that's going to have a whole lot of like low pitch count innings because he you got guys that can't can't even get contact on one hundred and two mile an hour fastball. He topped at one to one point nine in that start. So inherently you're probably gonna have more often than not, you know, fifteen to
eighteen pitch innings. So that is gonna get you to struggle a little bit from the uh, you know, getting to like five and six innings. So I'm saying all of this without jumping too far ahead and whatever you're gonna want to talk about. This was expectationally where I thought Paul Skeins was going to be. I loved the fastball. The only thing I thought was weird was I think it was Yasmini Grindal who was altering the pitch mix, because early on, if you watch the start schemes, was
electric with the fastball. It was early fastballs in the first inning, struck out two second and then all of a sudden it started turning to like sliders and you were seeing that splinker or whatever they call the splitter that he was on the splitter, change up type of thing. And it felt like in two strike counts they were going to those instead of just barreling down one hundred and two. And I thought that was a catcher decision which maybe drove counts where you want to see more fastballs.
But I think like, regardless of the result, you should be happy. This is him meeting the expectation of Paul Skins is a big win. It just doesn't add up to the Bonker's pre expectations people had those trades on leading off that we were seeing Someone's like, I can get Matt Olsen for Paul Skins. Yeah, Someone's like, would you trade Paul Skins for Corbyn Burns?
Yeah.
I think the performance took away some of the oh my god, Paul Skeins is a little bit human, So now you can't quite make those trades. So now it's like, who would you rather have rest of the season, like Paul Skins or Chris Sale. I think that makes a little bit more sense in people's minds.
What range are you ranking him rest of season?
So in the initial rank on my rest of season, I had put him before the start at thirty three. That's where I had set him. I'm still working on the finalizing the rest of season. We're trying to do it weekly, but we've had a lot of stuff going on, so I'm kind of resetting it. I think he's gonna sit between twenty eight and thirty. And some of that's by proxy, because it's like guys are falling off the list, like Chris Bassett's kind of falling apart, Like I'm finally
kind of getting done with Kevin Gossman. I'm kind of getting done with Chris Bassett. So I think it's fair to value. It's fair to say, like Paul Skans could be a top twenty five s p rest of season. I think the disconnect is people are like, you hear top twenty five, and then you're like, oh, top twenty five,
could that mean he's top fifteen overall? I think he's gonna sit in that twenty five range because it's like it's gonna be tough for him to get wins and go five every single inning, But like he's an exceptional talent, so you should if you're trading him, I think you should view him as a top twenty five. So that's the value return at least I would want.
Yeah, I was gonna ask how much you know, weighing into that is sort of what you mentioned about the pitch count going up. The Pirates aren't very good, so like they're not gonna be motivated to really push him beyond whatever their kind of innings limit that they've set for him is. So you know, that is somebody to keep in mind for really any top pitching prospect. But you know in this case as well, is that innings like you may get them but they are a question mark at the very least.
And that's the positive could be though, is if the Pirates keep winning. That's the thing, like the formidable rotation, Jerry Jones, Paul Skains, Mitch Keller, that's your top three. There are a couple games out of the wild card. I think right now we're divisionally like they're not over
five hundred. But it's like, oh, if this team just said we're just not going to keep doing pirate things and we're going to try to win win, maybe they start pulling some more pieces and that's where you get into maybe they'll cut the court a little bit on being hyper sensitive about innings pitched or you know that Jared Jones situation where he was on four days rest, so they're like he's only going five and he pitched
fifty nine total pitches. That if this team is being competitive, it's the best possible scenario for a guy like Paul Skins. When they stop being competitive, then it's a cheap kind of comp and it's the sore spot for you and
our old conversations about Uri Perez. But like Uri Perez last year where you know, like they sent Eury Perez down for a little bit, and then they were maintaining innings and stuff like that, like if the Pirates aren't winning, that's the worry that can happen for Paul Skins.
You know, for the rest of the year, we're gonna talk about more than this Paul Skians. But I just want to mention before get off the topic, to share a sad story. I had tickets to Strasburg's debut and I didn't end up going because it was a buddy of mine in school and he was like, I have these tickets, like I got, I got too, and you're a big baseball fan. We weren't even that close to friends. He some day that I knew, but he's like, I know you're a big baseball fan.
Do you want to come? I was like, holy cow, yes I do. He texted me that afternoon.
After we got out of school and said, hey, my parents said I can't go because it's a school night.
And they made me sell the tickets.
And I was like, why did you give them to me?
What are you doing?
Let me buy them.
I would have happily bought them.
So he sold them and I didn't get to go, and then he struck out fourteen Pirates and looked amazing. I will never forget the fact that I wasn't at the debut of really the most tight pitching prospect that I can fad.
That is a sad story. So that's the other.
The other fun story quickly, high school teammate of mine who also went by a worm. The name is Keith Worm, and he went to uv A.
I played with him at actually worm like it's just not like yours abbreviated worm. Was it worm worm?
Uh?
No, it was.
It was also like a nickname abbreviat. But he he played at UVA and he got a hit off Strasbourg in the College World Series.
So that see, that would that's one of those things like I would love to have, Like you'd love to have that, Like, oh yeah I got a hit off of like this immensely talented talk about.
It, like back the closest thing of that for me.
Yeah.
Yeah.
There was a kid in you know when I played in high school who was go He was like signed to pitch at uv A and he ended up hurting his arm so he didn't. But he was really really good and he threw a one hitter against us, and I didn't get the one hit, but I did work the count to full before I struck out against him.
Oh that's right, that was That was my.
Best, but my best to as I caught a theoretical touchdown from Casey Weldon, who used to be a quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think he played it like Florida State.
Deep pass.
I was able to catch it over a cornerback, which was really cool. And then I got to do a media BP session at the Diamondbacks one time and I had toughy ghost switches bat and they started launch and we had the machine and I stepped in the box and I was the only person to almost hit a homer. I hit it. I hit the So this is on Salt River Fields, the backfield, the one that the major leaguers use, And I turned on one and I hit
three feet under the wall. Like so, I hit the wall, but it was three feet from going over with toughy ghost witch's bat. And it's like, had I just gotten a little bit more and hit a homer with a pro baseball player's bat on the field that they used, that would.
Have been You could live on that the rest of your life.
Oh, Yeah, yeah, the losers like us, so that that would have filled my my loser a bucket for a long time. Yeah, tell everybody, no big deal, but I hit.
A hole round the Diamondbacks facility.
Well, well we are losers, so we'll move on from reliving our glory. He can talk about actual good baseball players. I wanted to ask you about another picture. When we had a friend of show, Brendan Tuma, on a couple of weeks ago to talk with me and Mayor, he talked a lot about Christian Scott and how about he was a stash that he thought everybody should be hanging on to.
And now he's come up. He looks good.
What do you make of the first couple of starts of his career? And you know, I don't want to call him like a like, Like he is breaking out to a degree this year. He's moved up a lot on a lot of the prospect rankings. He wasn't like he was unheard of before, but like he looks really really good in a way that he maybe didn't before.
So what do you make of Scott?
Both in terms of just evaluating him as a young pitcher, but also what we've seen so far at the big league level.
Yeah, I was never like I was never big on Christian Scott last year and even into this year because I just hadn't seen enough statistically like things look good. But it's one of those cases, and it's it's it's truly in like evaluating prospects, like when you get to see them live and you really or you know, you really lock into multiple games if you're watching even on like you know, MiLB dot TV or something, and you can lock into a player, you just pick up so
much more. And I was even like a little bit like, oh, let's wait and see. And then I got to catch some of it early on and this year, and I jumped on it. And he had been on that Prospects to Stash article for some time. His first start. I was so impressed, and I've said this multiple times, just with his poise. I thought, cool cucumber. He was able to not get phased. I loved his ability to command.
And I know I've said this a couple of times, but like there there are a lot of things that reminded me of Brandon Fought, Like what I wanted from Brandon Fought when he came up because thought had to adjust his pitch type to be like a sweeper, fastball sinker type of guy, and I and the command was a little bit spotty. Christian Scott had that right away, and that was the thing that stood out to me
so much. He was the designation slider sweeper. You know he'll use those, but the split finger can kind of work as a sinker. And he was throwing split fingers. He was throwing fastballs up on corners, he was throwing the sweeper across the zone. I thought his stuff with command looked tippy top. And then in the next start got to hit up a little bit more. But you're seeing more of it. I mean, over two starts he's gone six. He's struck out at least six in both starts.
Walks haven't been a big issue. Twenty eight percent k percentage to only six percent walk rate. That already is better than where Skeins is at. And I think Christian Scott isn't going to have the upside of the strikeouts, but if he continues to have a low walk rate, this is gonna work really well for him. Guys are not barreling him up because of the command with those pitches. I am very, very interested in Scott and he's been a pick up for weeks weeks weeks before he got
called up. But what's so enticing now is I think he's locked to a S. I think it would take like, oh, we want to maintain this guy's innings and not ruin him, blah blah blah for them to send him down like they just sent Budo down. They've got spots in the rotation, and I think he's going to kind of continue rolling it. I think he's going to be one of those unherlded
bets at the end of the year. Like I wouldn't be surprised in NL voting if like Christian Scott had like you know, top five Rookie of the Year votes or something like that when it's all said and done. But yeah, I'm very much into Christian Scott.
I want to ask you about Jackson Holliday because the last time you were on, we spent like half an hour just like praising him, and you know, obviously I leave that up getting.
Giddy and over the moon.
Yeah, it did not age entirely well, although I mean it's not like we said he was going to come out and be an MVP. From day one, Like he's the twenty year old kid who moved really faster than minors, and there's always an adjustment, you know. I've seen a lot of people mention that, you know, the gap between Triple A and the majors has basically never been bigger than it is now in terms of the talent gap.
Like it's a hard transition to make.
So I want to ask you essentially what I just which is how much are we panicking both for this year and long term? I'm assuming the answer long term is not at all. I mean that's literally only how I feel yet, like literally zero. As a reminder for everybody, the stat line two for thirty four in thirty six played appearances, he scored five runs. He struck out in like half of his app his played appearances, I believe it was literally half eighteen of his thirty six played appearances.
Just so it's really overmatched.
Looked fine in the field, good bass runner, And I actually kind of think he was starting to come around a little in his last couple of games. Not like getting hot, but I thought he looked a little more comfortable, just anecdotally, like watching every Orioles game, I thought he was looking a little more settled in at the plate, even if it wasn't leading to results yet. But they sent him back down. So long term, you and iron lockstep he's still, you know, arguably the best prospect of baseball.
Not worried at all for this season if he gets called back up. When he gets called back up, how will you be reacting to that in any kind of non keeper form.
Yeah, so I guess you could look at it like I will be a glutton for punishment in that respect, because here's one thing I do believe is when he is back up, he will have answered. There's a lot of public pressure early on when he didn't make the opening day roster and they're like he needs to work on hitting lefties, and first at bat in the minors he hits off a left like it felt like a whole bunch of nonsense that they sold us. Now it
definitely is. It's more of that like, oh yeah, we're not in management of baseball, and they knew what they were talking about. So I'm leading this to say the public pressure is gone. He failed at the major league level, they sent him back down, and they're going to have clear cut things. Part of it might just be get your head straight and then it's going to be you know, this is what didn't work at the major league level.
Here's what we need to work on. So what I'm saying is when he comes up, when that happens, I feel confident that they will feel confident and they're going to have him up to get it bats. He won't be there to sit. So when he comes back up, I'm going to feel more calm, confident, and I will pick him up in every spot because long term, everything I said before still stands. I think he's a high contact,
low strikeout guy, even though that's been his bugaboo. The guy gets on base, has always had an over four hundred OVP. I thought he was going to run. He just didn't get on base to even run, so that, you know, it's really tough to say. I just don't think there's anything to pull from the debut. Sometimes that happens, sometimes it doesn't. Sometimes there's gleaning ideas of the player.
I don't think there's anything to pull from it. It may not be right, you know, because maybe he's gonna come back, and you know, I assume when he comes back, he's going to get the same treatment as far as how pitchers were attacking him, and that is going to be the thing he'll be working on in the minor, so that will be very telling. But I don't have
any stash. I'm not trying to stash right now. Stashing prospects is an overall net failure for this year, and even though I think we're going to talk about guy that's going to be coming up very soon, stashing in general has been a net failure. That you can do things in better spots. Anyways, I'm fine with with not doing that, and I'm not stashing a lot of these players because I think it's a super unknown. And I also don't think the next big oriole to be called
up is Jackson Holliday. I think I think it has to be Kobe Mayo. Kobe Mayo's destroyed, so that makes it even tougher for him unless there's a major injury or two to the middle infield and it's like, well, we clearly have to move him. But the problem is is Jordan Westburg can go over to second, Mayo can play third. So that's I think Holiday is going to
have a longer road to get back. But I do believe when he is back up, that's going to be the time to trust because he'll have answered those questions that the Orioles were looking for.
You read my mind on the on the stash question. That's interesting.
So the thing with Mayo that I've been I think he's like ready, Like, I think he's a I love him as a prospect obviously, like both as an Orioles fan and for fantasy, like I would love to see him the big leagues. I've been kind of thinking, given his youth, give that there was some like swing and miss with the strikeouts.
And there's still at Crimes. May turned over and he was having some strikeout issues.
Yeah, still is.
I've been wondering if Dave were kind of of the mindset of maybe waiting for him to be like a September call up and keeping that eligibility to compete for Rookie of the Year next year and try and get them a pick in the future, because he seems like
the most obvious candidate. You know, a guy like Heston Kerstad is like twenty five years old already, and I know he just got sent back down Curestad, but like, you're not saving a twenty five year old for another year just to try and get Rookie of the Year, right. Connor Norby is I think a really good prospect, but probably blocked enough that he's not gonna win rooky of the Year next year, like Mayo's kind of the and Holiday being as good as he is, expecting him to
lose that eligibility this year. So Mayo is kind of the one where I thought maybe if they were trying to play that system. Also the fact that they don't really need the infielder. I mean they do now that Holiday's down and they're starting Mateo or Arius every day. But for all those reasons, I thought that Mayo might
be one that they did didn't aggressively promote. But I mean he's he's leading the organization in home runs, then the ones he hits are bombs, and I just I follow all the Orioles, you know, minor league accounts, and I'm watching these videos every day while the Orioles score one run, not that that happens often, they're a good team at the big league level, but the oorial score run run. Oh look, Mayo went three for five with a double and a home run and eight RBI, and
it just seems like every day that's happening. I do really like Mayo, but like I'm worried that they won't call him up, you know, that soon. But that's interesting that you kind of highlight him as the next big call up. I do want to ask about h you know, kind of the other stashes you alluded to, if not holiday, because it's you know what we've already seen and he's a guy will pick up but don't really want to
hold on to. Who are the guys the one or two names at the top of the stash rankings right now?
Yeah, so you know, we'll do a segment on leading off and I'll have my article, my prospects to stash article.
Last week, what I did was I lowered the number of guys that I was writing up that are of quote the idea of stashing, by the way, uses air quotes right now, because I know there's some people like, oh, you don't stash any and it's like, well, this year's kind of been right, But the idea of stashing is like, these are the guys that are going to be close to get some production and then i'd have a watch list. So this past week I lowered the number of guys
that you're actually worth quote unquote stashing. And I raised the watch list players because it's like, I don't know, I don't know when these guys could come up, but you should. You should have these guys in mind. The reason I'm telling you this is like there's been a mount rushmore of players that have sat at the tippy top of like worth stashing, and at this point it's
really only two players. And unfortunately the article is probably going to be the same in that respect, though other names will start coming up, and number one is Junior Caminaro. But the Junior Camenaro side got more interesting today. I think it was today or yesterday as we're doing this, is he played second base for the first time. He finally got off because he's played entire he was a shortstop at some point and then he's played third base
all year. He started second base, and last week just for fun, because I absolutely nailed the Paul Skins call up, I decided I'm gonna do another prediction, and my prediction for cam and Aro because there's this negative article that came out about the Rays and holding him down and they're not looking to bring him up anytime soon. I said May twenty fourth, and I did that because I think that gives enough time for him to have consistent at bats if they did want to do a positional thing.
That gives enough time. And really, there was a day off in between this time period. There's a day off on the twenty third, So I'm just gonna stick there. There's my update, and I feel better about it because he played second base and start at Brandon lau Is. I think he's hurt right now. Maybe this timeline gets pushed up and it's even sooner, but his bat has just been live, and I know unfortunately all the guys that get called up, they've been hitting over three hundred.
That's where he is the positives. It's been a low strikeout rate, first time since Dominican Summer League. He has a double digi walk rate at tripa A. He's hitting over three hundred. He's got a three almost four or five slash. He's at seven homers in twenty four games. He has opposite field power for days. He's got an incredible sense of the plate, which I've always loved, and I don't think he's going to strike out a bunch.
I do think that pure raw power is going to play well for him, good hard hit numbers, you know, good hard hit and barreling. That's the type of guy that he is. And now that he's playing second base, they're finding some spots for him because Isak Prates has been great. He really has been a really good player. So the only option at this point had been with
then you d h Camonaro or parades. But maybe they're now looking at it and saying, screw it, we can get Cameron Aro in that lineup because Caballero has played well at shortstop. You've got a med Rosario who's playing around, and they're gonna look. My idea would be for Caminaro to be the everyday second basement and then he also has flexibility.
To play third.
That's what they value. They value players that can play around the field. Cow Manzardo told me year and a half ago they wanted him to pick up a third base glove in spring training because they wanted to have that flexibility, and then they traded him. But cam and Aro doing this, I think that is the most telling sign of this raised team. So I'm gonna kind of stick to it. I think we're in a ten to two week window where Cameron Aro could come up and the new position helps, and he is, you know, one
of the more prolific bats out there. So that is like, that's the number one guy.
And I know the other guy that we talked about in the pre show who I am really excited to see in the big leagues is James Wood. You have Cameron now ahead of Wood in terms of your STASH rankings.
Yeah, and Stash in Dynasty, they're both next to each other. James Wood is immensely interesting, especially from this list because he's the power speed guy. I didn't even realize this until I just look now. He has a lower K percentage than Cameron Aro in the minors so far, and he has like double the games, which is very impressive because last year in Double A James Wood had a thirty three percent K percentage. I watched a bunch when he was a padre and he has some bad swing
and miss. He has really worked and changed on that. He has a almost career high walk percentage at fifteen percent, an under twenty percent K percentage, seven homers, nine stolen bases, a three four five slash. He's hitting three point fifty seven in Triple A right now. This is literally, I mean, the Nationals are putting out Nixon, Zell and Jacob Young, and I don't want to be dismissive of this entire lineup or anything like that. You know, Victor Roebliss is
out there in right field right now. Any other team they're gonna go and they're gonna put out James Wood. But this team is I would not be shocked. I suppose if they held him back to September to try to get extra pit compensation, but at the same time going back to Kobe Mayo or James Wood, Like, I don't know what you what is the growth of keeping a guy like James Wood who obviously has this Like you tell me what are the things that need to
be fixed? And this is kind of rhetorical. I'm asking is like, Okay, what do you guys want him to work on? Because he's hitting three fifty seven, he's running, he's stealing, he's not striking out, he's walking more than he's ever done. He's doing everything you could do. Is it advantageous to keep him down here? Is it advantageous for Mayo to stay down with the team, maybe to work on strikeouts? But what do you get if you keep them there for four months? What do you get
with James? Would you keep them there for four months?
Outside of it, I've been a huge proponent of in talking to my friends about all this, like kind of log in with the Orioles about like just like trade somebody to make it happen, because even if you take a short term hit, like while they're adjusting, because at a certain point, I'm a big believer in if you have solved a level and are stuck there, it's going to hinder your development, Like it's gonna actually be by not continuing to be like, oh I need to grow into the next step.
Now I've already solved this. I just think it's bad for you.
A team like the Orioles, I get it a little more because they're like, we don't want to trade Ryan or Herd because he's getting the crap out of the ball, and like we want to win the games.
The Nationals the only.
Thought process with them, and I know they've got off to a better start than you know, kind of expected or whatever, but like the only thought for them should be what is best for James. Would So if you think James Wood has solved the minors, he needs to be on the next plane to DC. Like there's just like to me, that's the only the only calculus is has he solved this level?
Yes, time to call him up.
And like I'd love to hear that, Like, so you tell me not again, this is rhetorical to their management,
tell me what the thing that he hasn't solved? So if he has solved it and he has got this level down, do you like, is it important that you see sixty games of consistent production or do you think maybe at the point where a guy is hitting three point fifty seven, there are around two hundred plate appearances, is that maybe enough to give them more of a challenge and to be fair, like, you know, maybe we're being hyper aggressive about it, but when they're putting out
like the Merrill Vargas and Victor Robliss and Jacob Young, and it's like, yeah, James Wood would instantly be the best the medical player on this team. And then guess what I think from a developmental standpoint, it is beneficial for that guy to get the major league time and then if the warts are there, you go and fix them.
It doesn't not everybody has to be Joe Adell where it's three years of disastrous you threw them into the fire and it didn't work, and it's like, well, no, be very hands on, but why do not the amount Creig Council. I didn't get to say this earlier, Cret Council years ago when talking about Hestin and Kira or Kesten Heira, I said Heston kers yeah, yeah, he was having a rough time. And Crek Council was like, listen
the jump because you said this earlier. The jump from Triple A to the majors is as big of a gap as it's ever been in baseball. And the more that we have, I mean, we have new pitch introductions, the sweepers are taking over this year. It's the year of the splitter, high fastballs. There are that the hands on nists that happens in the lower levels I think would kind of astonish people because I think we have an idea of like what base and every team is.
There's a group of guys with tablets that are like, Okay, you did this and this, and it's not the case the amount of in person work and attention that happens at the major league level that doesn't happen at minor league levels would throw people off. So why not take a guy who's doing everything right, get them to the majors. Let the organization, the top people in the organization analytically break down everything, especially if they're struggling, and then you
take that down. Same thing I would have said about Jackson Holiday. Some teams just think let a guy go, and maybe the Nationals would do that. But yeah, this is all the like, this is just the criminal stuff. We look at Camanaro and James Wood and we see how successful they are and we want to see them up. Executives have a pretty good argument right now, and they can go, Okay, that's cool. Well look at Jackson Holiday, look at com Manzardo, look at Jordan Beck. You know,
list goes on and on. They can kind of keep doing that. But if you're going to get into the stash game, those of the two that I think James Wood and Camnaro are within two or three weeks. There's a host of other players that are worth the common conversation, but I do think it's circumstantial. It's like if if there was an injury in the Orioles rotation. Kde Povich is one of the first players I would think that would come up to the majors. Adam Maser just got
called up the Triple A with the Padres. He's had a phenomenal year. If there was a big injury in the rotation for the Padres, that would be a guy. So I think there's a lot of situational prospect issues. There's only so many that force their way on, and I think Camonaro and James Wood are the players that are forcing their way on.
I'm not saying he's the same stylistically or that he is as good as what I'm about to say the name I'm about to throw out, But when I think of James would I think of Ellie da la Cruz in the sense that they're just way too big for the positions they play, and yet they're still.
Like some of the best prospects. Somebody asked me, like our speed.
And like a year ago when I was on CBS, someone asked, They're like, who is the next Ellie de la Cruz And I said, all right, I'll give you the name. And it's not just because of a one hundred percent of the physical presence, but you're talking about a player that puts up crazy big evs. James Wood is a guy that can hit when one eighteen that runs way bigger than their physical style. It is James Wood, and James Wood does have a physical similarity to Ellie
day La Cruz, though he's bigger. But James Wood is the type of guy that, like I said, one eighteen Evs could hit thirty homers, could steal thirty bases like that, is a guy that could come onto the scene and go nuts. The difference between, ironically, between those two guys was at one point I really would have said, like, oh, yeah,
James is actually just like Ellie. But James has so vastly improved his back to ball skills and his strikeout percentage and making good outs and putting you know, barrels on the ball that it's like James Wood might have a higher ceiling at that point. I don't think he's gonna steal like Ellie. Like Ellie has proven. You know, the best thing I've done this year was that lay day La Cruz to lead the league in stolen bases.
And he's doing that.
Yeah, he's doing that in the droves right now. But like James Wood is the type of guy the in the future, the comp might be maybe more similar to like an Aaron Judge. You know, that might be where it goes at some point. But yeah, yeah, the main crux here is, like you want to talk about dynamic skill sets, James Wood has that feel of a guy that could lead the league in homers and stolen bases in like a month.
He's crazy.
Yeah, absolutely quickly.
You know, I've been watching a lot of clips lately from one of my favorite movies the last decade, which is The Martian. And speaking of The Martian, Jason Dominguez is rehabbing, so we're kind of up on it on time, But just some quick thoughts from you on you know what it means, what we'll see from him when he gets back to the big league level and is healthy again.
Yeah, if he's sitting out there, I'm picking him up. He's still one of my favorite from a dynasty perspective. This is probably the last opportunities for buys if they even exist, because he just started his rehab assignment and that's a huge thing. He's going to get back into playing time. He got a hit in his first game. He's an insane talent that I think people have kind
of forgot about. So you know, in Dynasty, I think he's a great buy that it still might be a little bit cheaper in redraft to be sitting out there. I guess I don't assume him is like the prospects to stash because he's made his major league debut. But if he is out there, i'd stash him because I think you're probably two weeks ish away, just however long
they feel the rehab assignment has to go. And I don't think it's you're gonna throw him back into Triple A. I think you're gonna throw him right back into the major So there's a little bit of a glut there with some of the guys that are up. But maybe they you know, maybe they cut bait with a with a Trent Grisham, and you know, Dimingez can get back in the outfield. Maybe he's dhing a little bit. You keep stanting at the DH like Jason, Dimingez is going to get back in that lineup. So if he is
out there, you should get him. And I have pretty high expectations because I was very impressed with the major league debut that he had hit two fifty eight four homers in eight games. I think he's gonna kind of pick right back up.
Welsh.
It's always a pleasure to talk to you. Thanks so much for coming on. You know, I appreciate you making the time and giving us all this knowledge. Everybody stick around. I'll be right back with Mayor on the other side. All right, Mayor, let's wrap up here with our weekend excitement.
I will go first.
Wasn't a super long list, so I just highlighted kind of the thing that stood out to me most, and that is Paul skeins against the Cubs again, you know, before innings.
Seven strikeouts in that first start.
Obviously, like we talked about this, everybody listening just heard me talk about this with Welsh, you know, most typed pitching debut since Steven Strasburg. I'm still salty about having to give away the tickets for Strasburg's debut, which is a story everybody heard during.
The interview with Welsh.
But again, just really really exciting, you know, pitching prospect here finally got the call up, and he's going up against the same team he faced in the first game out. I want to see if he does better. I want to see if he goes into the into the you know, deeper into the game. Not that he was awful in that first start, but you know it was your first start ever. You know, it's you never know how a guy's going to react to that. But I'm just really excited to see what he does over the weekend.
Yeah, for sure, Paul Skins is the obvious one. We kind of talked before the show and I was like, I don't really know what I wanted to see. Paul Skins is a really good one. That's the obvious one. Matt Perrault the host of our Daily Juice podcast over on the Betting Pro Feed, which I encourage everyone to check out. He does a daily really quick hitting you know,
here's what I'm betting for the day. It's a it's a really enjoyable fifteen minute, you know, ten to fifteen minute podcasts every morning.
Matt Parol is actually going to be at that game.
He's he's flying from Vegas to Chicago to go see Paul Skins. So excited to hear how he how he thinks he does. We kind of default to pitching matchups or kind of team matchups. I'm like, what we're excited for this weekend and we're kind of talking. Before the show, I was kind of just you know, you were you were talking about whatever you were talking about. It wasn't listening, but I was looking at the weekend slate and I was just kind of like, ah, I don't really know
what I'm looking forward to. Like, I'm definitely looking forward to watching baseball, but I mean I want to see Jack Flaherty's at Gallen, both because I think that's a good pitching matchup and because I have a lot of those guys in my leagues, so that's a matchup. I'm looking forward to Freddie Perlta justin Berlander. I don't have any Verlander, but I have a bunch of Peralta and
that's a good pitching matchup. And I'm I just keep waiting for the Astros to turn back into the Astros and like we said, are they going to sell if they keep plummeting? You know, not that I thought I want them to do better. I'm ready to not see the Houston and the Alcs this year. Enough is enough on that front. But other than that, I feel like there's a lot of like okay pitching matches, but not a lot of kind of premier ones, So Paul Skenes
is kind of the obvious one. And then there's just a lot of like, oh, that's interesting, you know, that's that's okay, Like I don't I don't feel like unless I'm missing.
You don't need to fake it or sell us soldness.
It's not the most exciting from what the type of stuff you and I usually highlight this segment. I think we've named enough of them.
We don't.
We don't need to to, you know, lose the trust of our audience by just pretending we care about.
You know, some of the lower I'm not pretending. I'm saying I'm trying to. I'm trying to look is.
Not the same as like we can excitement, what are we really looking forward? I was also looking like are there any good like team matchups this weekend? Yeah, I was kind of and I haven't really stood out to me white sox Yankees doesn't really do it.
For me, shockingly. All right, let's go to our two start picture competition. Last week, my picture Emerson Hancock got sent down after his first start.
I knew I was kind of going out on a limb.
Anyway, it was like not a week I love that was let me just take a shot here on Hancock. For whatever reason crossed my mind last week, Uh did not pan out because well, part of it was I was excited about to start against the A's and didn't even get it. Your pitcher this week is even worse as you mentioned Renel Blaco, or is it worse? Is getting sent down better or worse than your guy getting suspended during the week you picked him as a two
star pitcher. I genuinely don't know the answer to that, but as you are already highlighting the outline because of that fact, A, you know you got an auto win last week, I would say, and B I'm gonna get an auto win this week. So I believe we are actually tied through six weeks including this week, that we're currently in at three wins a piece.
So it's an exciting race so far. Who you got for this week?
Yeah, I think the time breaker there was not just that your guy got sent down and then my guy got suspended, which it's kind of on one hand, it's kind of fun because normally we have to kind of wait an extra week to talk about who won. Now we're two weeks ahead, we already know into the future, who's won not only this week but next week or not like last week but this week kind of a situation. I think the tiebreaker there is that my guy wasn't
just suspended. He was suspended for cheating. He didn't like get into you didn't like throw at someone and get like thrown out of the game and get a five game suspension. He got caught cheating, allegedly cheating and was suspended. So I feel like that tiebreaker makes it worse than getting sent down, although they are both pretty bad. My pitcher for this week is Kyle Bradish.
Did you say, is it.
Bratish or British bradish?
Bradish?
Like?
I don't know why I doubted myself there, but I made sure for one of the first times ever, I
got to the sheet before you. And similar to the pitching matchups and the team matchups for this weekend, I didn't love what we were seeing in terms of two start pitchers next week, and so I was like, you know, not only does he have two good matchups in the one of the worst teams we've ever seen in the White Sox and the struggling Mighty League Cardinals, but also I got to grab an Oils pitcher before you did, and so I was happy to take Kyle Bradish.
Uh. Yeah, you know what, that's okay. I'm not beating myself up over it. He didn't do that well today eighty five pitches and four innings. The O's did get the window extend there.
He's warming up for me next week, that's why.
Yeah, yeah, Suell for me, I'm going with Chris sale Has By the way, do you know Chris Sales thirty five? Like I know, he's been around a while, but I didn't realize he he'd hit the mid thirties yet or like that level of it. I would have guessed like thirty two or thirty three. But he's He's pitched really well in his last three starts. His last three starts, he's gone a combined eighteen innings one earned run. What is this twenty eight strikeouts? I didn't actually I had
to do math on the fly, just one walk. So he's been really good since since the calendar flip to May, and he was good even prior to that too.
He's obviously had a really stellar season so far, so I'm gonna take him.
His matchups a are against the Padres and at the Pirates. So we'll see who breaks the tie here seven weeks into the season and takes a lead in our contest. Any other thoughts here before we wrap up? Nope, all right, we'll get out of there on that. Thank you everybody for tuning in. Thank you again to Welsh for joining me earlier. I hope everybody enjoyed that segment, and I hope everybody enjoyed the show. For Mayor and Welsh, I'm Ryan Warmley.
We'll see you again next week.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB