Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. Is Me Joe Pi Zapia, and today we're gonna look on the other side of things. We're gonna take a look at potential bust players. And it's not that we hate the players. Sometimes we just hate the adp although sometimes we might hate the players.
We'll see how the show goes.
Joining me is always my good pal of the Welsh and of course it's all of you out there. If you haven't already subscribed to the Fantasy Pros MLB page. We're the fastest growing YouTube channel in the history of the universe when it comes to baseball.
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Prize then by ringing that bell for notifications, Welsh, Let's start with the All Bus team. And as I said before going into the show, obviously this is the time of year where you know, we're trying to evaluate the talent and the talent most importantly in that consensus rankings, in the consensus ADP, both of which you can find over at Fantasypros dot com. That's available for you any
time over there. But to me, Welsh, when you're looking at Bus, it's also you know, taking the player most importantly, taking the circumstance in which the players in in twenty twenty four, I think that is the most important thing. How do you identify Bus typically as well when you're looking at trying to avoid it. And I'm not saying you're avoiding all these players because maybe it's one or two you're willing to take that risk on anyway.
Yeah, it's it's tough because I'm not as black and white as a lot of other people. A lot of people will be like this guy sucks, you can never blah blah blah, or this is the best player. I do live in gray areas, I think. And this is going to come back to the answer. It's kind of sometimes about cost, like sometimes production is just going to completely fail, you know. Funny enough, a little pat on
my own back. I just put together that article we it talked about in the last episode, the cheat sheet. But I was looking at my cheat sheet from last year. There's lots of stuff we all like don't get right, and you look and you're like, oh, okay, this guy kind of I was looking at like my favorite guys, Corn Carroll, right, that's sure. Oh yeah, no, he was my favorite guy by fourth round. But I was looking and I'm leading this in. I looked at the guys
I was avoiding. I nailed that. I don't think I've ever been more accurate then my avoid twenty twenty three list, Dylan Cees, Alec Minoa. It was great, and it was great in that, but so sometimes are players like Manoa and cs. I just wanted no part of under any circumstance. But are there players if their cost wasn't quite there that I would draft? Yeah, sure, I can get into that. So I think a lot of the bust can end up becoming about that player being able to return the
value of where you're drafting a guy. So that's kind of like my core piece to it, because yes, I could sometimes draft some of these players, but that's a lot of my attack here because you know these guys, they can turn it around in a heartbeat. We're seeing baseball change on a dime. With all the rules, anything can happen. But a lot of my bust is going to be based on boy, do I hate the costs that I'm taking on these players and I don't think they can return what you're investing in.
Yeah, And for me it is again, I'm willing to take chances on certain players here, but I also understand that you have to understand that there's bust potential in some of these names too, even though you might be willing to draft them if they do fall around longer than they should. And some players are going to be some you know, high end players on this list that we're going to talk about today, and some lower end players too, because everybody thinks everybody's just a value just
because they're lower. Well, not necessarily. Sometimes that's a waste of a pick too. So without further ado, let's get to it. Let's talk about our all bust team for twenty twenty four. Let's start a catcher. Welsh who made the list for you?
Well, I could have put them all. I like yours that you're about to say, I don't like hi end catcher, so I'm probably going to identify top one hundred catcher, and that's what I did. I'm picking on the fourth catcher according to Fantasy Pro's consensus ranks ADP of seventy four picking on William Contreras, who is a very popular pick for a lot of people because of some of
the power potential. Yet last year, William Contrere's only seventeen homers in one hundred and forty games rand a really high batting average, except his expected batting average was almost forty points lower. He also had a career low launch angle.
His expected slug was lower, well, on all the numbers, lower lower though he hit the ball harder, So hitting the ball harder is always going to give you that baseline They did bring in Gary Sanchez, who I think is going to be more of a primary DH, but that is somebody for them to take Contreras out in some instances. I'm just not in love with the idea that Contreras is going to be some thirty home run catcher like some believe he is. I think the batting
average could dip. He's not proved in other spots. We saw what the one hundred and forty games are. Bottom line, I don't like catchers in the top one hundred. I think there's so much value later. So I am going to bust William Contreras.
Yeah, high end catchers. I'm also out on so JT. Real Muto was mine. I've talked about him in some of the videos already on Fantasy Pros. But this is a guy who's batting average fell last year. You know, twenty points, the OBP fell, thirty points, the slugging percentage fell. I mean, all these indicators are there, and the ops completely, you know, almost sixty point difference year over a year, and go from eight twenty to seven to sixty two. Look, I understand he's still had twenty homers.
I understand he's still had sixteen stolen bases.
So I get from a roto perspective, especially in two catcher leagues, if you'r a nut job was still playing those that he has value, I get it, But I'm also trying to factor in the age here. He's going to be thirty three years old. We've seen guys like Brian McCann right great catchers and fantasy for a long period of time. Once they hit those early thirties, you start to see that decline. I feel like you're starting
to see with Real Mutum. My concern Welsh is if you continue to see it that he gets dropped in the order, and if that happens, it could hurt all of his counting stats too. So that basically why I think Real Muto has bus potential.
In twenty twenty four, let's take.
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to one hundred dollars. That's ten free Dinger drafts. And that promo code is fp MLB. And join the Underdog today and get drafting in the upcoming MLB season. And now back to the action. Speaking of phillies or ex phillies, and I'll start with the first baseman here. Reese Hoskins for me, is on this list. And I know he might be saying, but he's so cheap. He's at one eighty eight overall. Why do you think he's a bust. I'm not saying he is a bust. I'm saying he
has bust potential and I want to harke him. Back to Michael Conforto's twenty twenty three season where he hadn't played for a whole year and he came back and it just didn't go so well. And I understand that Reese Hoskins is a slightly better player than Confordo, But if you go back and look at Conforto, he had some peaks there for the Mets once upon a time a few years ago as a player that looks like a thirty home run guy potentially in the league, and then things.
Really didn't work out.
But Hoskins, although he's a better player, and I like the ballpark factor more than where Confordo ultimately ended up.
I like Hoskins in Milwaukee. I took him in a draft just this week.
At the same time, I have to recognize there is a bust factor you have to be aware of when it comes to Hoskins because he hasn't played an entire year. You saw Trey Mancini be off for an entire year.
Obviously different circumstances, But at the same time, I think you have to take that into account and realize, despite the fact you're getting a huge discount race Hoskins, there is that potential where either he doesn't hit the ground running again, or it takes you know, a good few months for him to really get back in a groove. Do you think I'm crazy for calling Hoskins a potential bust?
I mean, I'm a Hoskins guy so like to but.
To recognize that it's possible, right, Yeah, I.
Think of the possibility. Is there my biggest argument, because you know, the two bus elements are this guy's just going to stink and he's going to be stank, or this guy is not going to return the value. I find it very hard because I believe Hoskins is going to return to being a thirty home run hitter. I find it really impossible that he's not going to be able to return like a top one fifty EIGHTYP value. So you're a little crazy in my brain, Joey, I love Race Hoskins.
Well, I guess here is the thing.
If he ends up being a twenty home run guy, I think it's a little disappointing just saying even at one eighty eight, I think would be a little bit of a disappointment for me personally because I'm like you, I do see him as a value. I will take him, but I have to acknowledge that there is the range of outcomes. Is our good friend Derek Brown likes to say, where Hoskins doesn't exactly look great for the first half of the season or maybe the entire season, is he's
trying to work his way back. I mean, it's just one of those things you have to understand. Who made the first base team for you in all bust team.
That's actually really interesting that last thing that you said that the possibility and this is something I think that should be accounted for with talking about bus is a player in the grand scope of a season can end up like kind of returning their value. But when a guy is a dud for half of a year and they're killing your team and maybe you're in consideration to cutting them or you possibly do, and then they bounce back, I don't give them. I don't give them the extra
credit because they return that value. To your point, with Reice Hoskins, mine is kind of the same thing. And I'm gonna do the most anti Homer thing ever, and I'm gonna pick on a diamondback old Christian Walker. Christian Walker as my bust here who really suffered in the back half of the year. Hitting two zero five in the final month of the season, then took that struggle bus into the playoffs and killed I mean Barre. The
Diamonbacks were able to like push past his struggles. He did nothing to help outside of a double in the World Series. I'm worried he's going to take that in and we're going to have another struggle in the first half here. His hard hit percentage ended up dropping, launch angle was going down, expected batting average was lower. Yet we're paying the highest cost of Christian Walker ever. He's going off at seventy two in the rank, seventy seven
and adp as the eight first, eighth first baseman. He's right in the same general vicinity as Paul Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger and guys behind him. We're going to talk about another episode. I love Tristan Cossas. I think Spencer Torkelsen, outside of ballpark factors, is a player that is ninety to ninety five percent of Christian Walker Walker. The advantage he has is he has hit for some higher batting
average and put up monster RBI numbers last year. I'm not sure that that is going to continue, and I'm worried the struggles from last year are going to carry over a little bit. There's a little bit of injury stuff already in spring. I'm gonna bust Christian Walker, especially at that cost, because that advantage has gone where you draft him at one point fifty and you get the return of a seventy five overall player. He has to perform at the level from last season, I think, to
return the value. So we will bust the diamond about Christian Walker.
Yeah, I feel like that's kind of a clump there.
Once you get past Jones and gold Schmith, Walker, Cassas Steer, we'll talk about him coming up to you. But I feel like that that's the big drop off after gold Schmith. That's why I always like gold Shmith too, because I feel like this guy they really feel pretty steady about. Still a guy you don't feel steady about at second base.
It's the same guy.
That I don't. It's Nico Horner. You've been riding this train into the ground for or pretty much all of pre draft season here into draft season. So Wels, I'll let you start first year.
When it comes to Nico.
When I saw you had him on here, I was like, we're going together we're gonna we're holding hands into the sunset. On bust and Nico Horner. It is not that Nico Horner is a bad player. Ninety eight runs is phenomenal. He's actually kind of turning into like the Brandon Nimo of that middle infield. And he stole a ton of bases. But his value, I think is heavily heavily weighted based on his costs on those stolen bases. I will admit
he is a three category player. He's a nothing burger on the other two single digit homers RBI's I guess nothing to throw away at sixty eight is still like service.
That's because of lineup placement.
But again, lineup placement is why my whole thing was six hundred and eighty eight played appearances last year. You know, like the volume is king right, So if for any reason he doesn't recreate that volume, you have to be worried he doesn't recreate that productivity.
And it's fifty eight overall, fifty eight overall on ADP, and I think that cost is built in simply on the stolen bases. Projections don't like or repeat. They're about ten to twelve less across the board. I also don't like him to go over forty and because stolen bases are just more plentiful and you can get Bryson Stott, in my mind, is like a Nico Horner light that's a player Andres Jimenez is the true Nico Horner light. I can get Andres Jmenez outside the top one hundred,
get more homers. I think I can get within eighty five percent on stolen bases. Average is probably the same. Maybe I sacrifice the little runs blah blah blah, but I'm saying, like ninety percent ish of Nico Horner fifty to sixty spots later, that's what I'm gonna do. I'm busted, Nico Horner. I know you're there with me.
I am.
It is also really for me the ADP in which he's going I just think it's a little too high. He's going ahead right now consensus ADP on Fantasy Bros. Of Paul Goldschmith, ahead of Nolan Jones, ahead of Royce Lewis, which is a player that I think is a five category player.
So I don't I don't get this at all.
I understand that it's a big number of stolen bases I get that, but to your point earlier Welsh, it's easier to find steals later in the draft too, So why am I paying almost, you know, a premium basically for a guy who is, as you pointed out, and I think it's very true, a three category player at best. I don't see the power developing for Nico Horner. I
like the player, I just don't like the ADP. Now what I take Nico Horner if he was going closer to seventy five ninety range, yes, but in the top fifty ish, I just think it's.
No where he's closer to Andres Jimenez you would take it right. I will say, you know, one of the battles here in great episode we did with Ario Cohen if you want to hear about ATC projections on the YouTube channel. In the podcast is like Ariol admitted that like the guys that pop in the system are batting average, and Ariol believes that runs are like a bigger fantasy correlation right now, and that is something that Nico does
a pretty decent job of on both fronts. Like a high batting average two eighty plus and he almost scored one hundred runs. Those are going to value higher. So I think that is part of why, like you're auction calculators are going to value him a little bit above. But I think the depleted homers like I'm chasing power even more in drafts this year. Yeah, and he's a nothing on this and stolen bases, I don't feel the same weight of I mean, forty is incredible, but like
I have to get forty, you don't. I mean, you can literally save your stolen base projections with Estory Ruiz a little bit later while you've sprinkled in ten to fifteen across the board. It's not to be totally dismissive of Nico Horner. There is value runs in average are hard to find on the wire and everything, but the cost is.
Just really high. I can't do it, Walsh.
Not if Nolan Jroones is on the board, a guy who get it relatively in the same range of average, a guy who can have thirty thirty potentially. I mean, there's just no way. I'm just not doing it. Third base here for my All Bus team. This is a player that I was really in on last year. He's probably All Sleeper Team last year. I have to go back and watch. But as Josh Young of the Texas Rangers. I like Josh Young. Again, this is not like me
turning on Josh Young. You look at the counting stats at the end of the year, you go, hey, this is a really good season. He was in the early discussion for Rookie of the Year last year. Is a very strong season. Twenty three homers, seventy RBI, seventy five runs. He did miss some time there last year. But some other deeper issues there with Josh Young. The first one that I want to bring up is against right handed pitching,
just two forty seven. That's a problem for me. You're gonna face more right handed pitching in the American League. Two ninety nine OBP, a four to nineteen slugging, seven eighteen ops against righty's. That's not good enough. That is a red flag to me. Also a red flag second half of the year.
Now, I am.
Counting into the fact that health was part of it, But at the same time, Welsh over his final thirty four games in the second half, he hit just two twenty nine with a two to seventy one OBP and a three to sixty six slugging. That reeks to me of a guy where maybe the league was starting to
catch up to him figure out his weaknesses. Can Josh Young bounce back from that and adjust, Of course he can, But at the same time you have to count into all of those other things that I just brought up there where there's a potential also for him to bust. So once again, i'd rather have Royce Lewis, who I don't think is going to be a bust. I think is going to be great players of this year. I'm
looking at nuelve Marte, who's cheaper. I think there's other ways if you're gonna look for a corner guy or a low end third baseman that there's other places I'd like to go that I think are a little bit steadier.
Potentially than Josh Young.
Welsh who made your third base list here for the All Bust Potential team in twenty twenty four, and.
I feel like this guy's kind of a darling and he qualifies at so many positions. This was the player that I decided on because but I would do want to point out Josh Young and like November, this was my pick for this. The problem is he's just falling so far. The injuries are falling like he's so cheap now that now you're getting get and he's doing with the.
Cash war too, So it's not like it's not like that doesn't linger potentially either, And so that doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy either. So this is more about all those deep numbers than it is about the injury. But we can't take that out of the equation too, because he's had a lot of injury issues in the last three years of his career.
Yeah, and taking guys like that are already in going into the season, yeah, is a really dicey thing, Like you gotta be really careful about those players like Corey Seger is one that I'm comfortable with, but there's not a lot of others. Oh so okay, So the guy that I picked qualifies at multiple positions, kind of a darling, but the cost is just a little too high for me. And I picked Spencer Steer, who is technically twelfth that third base. He's a top one hundred player you know
in deeper leagues. That position eligibility is a big positive. But I just I'm worried about the position flexibility of this roster because they've got so many great players that they're trying to find spots for Ellie Noelvie, Christian and Carnelcio and Strand and Candelario has been slammed in the middle of that as a lockdown starter every single day. Not to mention, you've got Frehley, You've got Freedol, you've
got Will Benson. There's so many players in there that they didn't make a commitment to Spencer Steer not being the guy. But I do feel like we're only a couple of hot starts from players to push him off. So not a huge, huge home run threat. Twenty homers last year, stole a bunch of bases, but eight of his stolen bases came in one month. That's eight of fifteen stolen bases came in June of last year. If opportunities are waning a little bit, this is not a
massively big stolen based guy. So if you're paying a top one hundred cost and he can't meet that home run threshold, and he can't meet that stolen based threshold, I feel like a lot has to work in his favor for him to be able to return the value where it's inside the top one hundred. And I'm just not quite there with with Spencer Steer. I'd also say his expected batting average twenty spots lower than his actual batting average expected slug almost sixty points slower four sixty
four to four h nine. Just I can't pay the top one hundred price. And this is the guy that I'm going to be picking on.
I understand. And the squeeze is my big concern too. You mentioned that, Look, they've got so much young talent there strand Dela Cruz Marte, like, you know, not to mention Matt McLain, like.
I mean, there's only so many India is still sitting out there, to.
India is still there.
I feel like he's gonna get deltough do you I feel like that?
I mean, I've been thinking that was going to happen for three months and it still hasn't happened. But that's the craziest thing is India can be traded and it still doesn't actually really fix this crazy big glut of players. So like, what did Spincer Stereer? Just real quick and we'll move on from it. Spencer Steer six hundred and sixty five played appearances last year and one hundred and fifty six games. I think it's going to be tough for him to be able to reach that marker again.
By the way, every projection one hundred played appearance less, so I think it's going to be a tough task for him to repeat what he did last year, and we're kind of paying this year for what he did last year.
It would take an injury, I think, for him to get back to that number. But it's also tough because there's a player who was really useful off the waiver wire for a lot of people. They have a lot of good feelings about him, so they want to reinvest. I totally get that. But the calculus is changed for the Reds in twenty twenty four, and I think that's something you have to take into account of that equation. See all that math, metaphor just throughout there's a lot
of math. All right, Let's get to the next position here on our list. It is shortstop and this is a player Welsh that you selected that I gotta tell you, I haven't been drafting a lot of and I'm curious to hear your take on why you put them on the bus team, because the more I continue to research, the more.
I continue to look.
I feel like I need to be kinder to this player, But maybe you see things differently when it comes to Hasi on Kim.
So there's a couple of players I've kind of identified that they don't have great hitting metrics but made every ounce of their bat work and put C. J. Abrams is one of those players. Like really poor barreling, not great hard hit numbers, but launch angle, you know, pulled launch, pulled fly balls was what he was able to, you know, make work. Hassan Kim was kind of the same way.
Hassan Kim had one of the lowest barrel I actually think he had, like the heart the bottom three worst hard hit rate in all of bagall last year of qualified hitters. It was a twenty six point two percent that was seven percent lower than the previous year. But he had a thirteen almost fourteen degree launch angle. But those are paired with bad barreling that you got the bad hard hit, you've actually got a negative expected batting average.
He hit two sixty, but it was two forty three and his average EV was eighty six miles per hour. Those are atrocious with an above average launch angle in a bad hitting park. So what did he do absolutely maximized to the umnth degree to get seventeen homers to me, and it could blow up in my face. I don't think that's sustainable, and I don't think that's going to continue, and projections kind of agree. The stolen bases, I also don't.
I will say this, I think he stole like at least three bases in every single month of the year. So he could be a fifteen thirty guy and that could end up working out. But his ADP is right around eighty five and it's going a little bit higher in a lot of other places. I have not drafted him in, I think a single league, and I really worried that the bat is going to take a regression point where it's gonna be tough to get to thirty stolen bases, it's gonna be tough to get to fifteen homers.
And if that's happening, he's also not going to hit high in the lineup. I got like Jackson Merril could take over high points in the lineup. So I'm fading and busting Hassan Kim.
All right, my shortstop might surprise you again. This is guy a little lower on the trough right now, he's currently in a consensus ADP of two twelve, but I think that's gonna change in the next couple weeks significantly.
And it's Trevor's story of the Boston Red Sox. And this is more of a cautionary tale for everybody out here too, because I don't think he's going to be a post two hundred and EIGHTYP guy when we get to two weeks from now, when people are drafting right before the season, I think already you're seeing all the
positive things in the spring. He's in great shape, he looks healthy, he looks like his old self, and I think you're already seeing these injuries to other players that are ahead of him in ADP where he is going to continue to chug up, up, up up up. I would not shock me if he broke the one seventy five mark Welsh by the time he got closer he becomes one of these people we look at, go well, he's an infielder with you know, power and speed. We
could suffer the two thirty batting average. Okay, fine, but I just want to remind everybody who Trevor Story is, and Trevor Story is a player that you are going to suffer batting average. You are going to suffer the fact that he is not in Colorado. Boston's not the same place for him. You look at the home road splits. I mean, it's just we know who Trevor Story is.
I continue to be perplexed of what the Red Sox have done the last few years, getting rid of Mooky Bets, letting Xander Bogarts walk, and then paying guys like Trevor Story.
I don't get it, and.
I don't get and I want to warn against the rising adp of Trevor Story, because I do think it's going to rise the familiarity factor, the member berries of Trevor's story being once upon a time in Colorado. Hey, member, when Chevis's story with thirty thirty, I membt that's what's gonna happen here, you know, and I know it. Do you think I'm wrong? Do you think that's good? I mean, because I feel like that's where we're starting to head
of is oh. I remember this guy used to, you know, steal twenty five bags and hit thirty homers, And I think you're chasing something that just isn't going to exist at the age thirty one season for Trevor story again.
My only problem that this is Reeze Hoskins all over again. I kind of like Trevor's story, like, here's something I learned from last year. Here's one thing I really screwed up. So remember that article where I'm like, oh, I was amazing. I was the best in all of my fades and whatnot. I loled it myself when I looked at my first base targets and my number two was jose A bray You.
And last year something I was very about was like, hey, listen, I think I can skip and fade these high end first base and blah blah blah because I can get this guy a little bit later. I want to move off that approach. If I was being like, hey, I can fade some of these shortstops because I can get Trevor's story later, he could be my starter, and I think he can be a top seven shortstop. I think that's a recipe.
He could also be your version of twenty twenty four, jose A bra You of twenty twenty three.
That's what I'm saying.
Same logic.
That thing I'm trying to warn everybody of is like, hey, jose A Bray was great once upon a time. But when a player starts to decline, no matter what, sometimes you know, new circumstances don't always fit. The other thing, too, is well you talked about you know that range. Here's some of the names in that range. Logan o'happy, I want to draft him, Shotto Imanaga, I want to draft him. I like Jaron Durant, I like Brian Wu, I like Ezekiel Tovar, I like Lars Neubar, Junior Kaminarol. I am
running love letters too on a daily basis. Brandon Fott, Jung Holy, all of which are going in this ranger of Trevor story. That's my big problem is I think those are all players that I personally want to be in the business of. Or is Trevor story The downside, I just think is bigger and people realize, let's move on to the outfield. Give me a couple outfielders that you're concerned with. One of them is one of my favorite guys. So I'm gonna fight you on the first one.
Yeah, I've kind of talked about it a decent amount. I hate the adp of Nolan Jones and it's gonna be a pitchforks and people coming after me and trying to send me to the town square. I get it because everybody loves Nolan Jones. But the cost is I mean, it is peak, peak peak. It is fifty nine off of what he did last year, which was great in so many instances. He second half, the second half he hit three to zho one. Two things that kind of
stand out to me based on the cost. He had a skyrocketing babbit of over four hundred, and that is not sustainable. And that also is a regression batting average. That's a candidate. That's the candidate for batting average regression, like without question. Another thing I talked about Spencer Steer stealing half of his stolen bases in one month. Well, the September October, Nolan Jones twelve of his what was
it twenty stolen bases came in one month. So that has me worried over fifty points of batting average regression implied to his expected batting average. He hit two ninety seven two forty seven expected batting average. So I take sky rocketing babbit numbers expected numbers that look lower from a batting average standpoint, and stolen bases that might not be sustainable, and I go top fifty. He barrels, he hits the ball hard, he gets the ball in the air,
and he's in Colorado. All are awesome, but I'm a little bit worried about a top fifty overall costs. We had this conversation about Bellinger versus Nolan Jones. Nolan Jones has better hitting metrics, but I think from a track record standpoint, even though I know it's been walky last couple of years, I think I feel better about the changes that Bellinger has made as a hitter. I'll take him. That's why I'm busting Nolan Jones. Did you want my other or we just.
Well, I just want to the only thing I want to throw out in Nolan Jones' defense too, because a lot of people say, well, he plays in Colorado. Was he do on you know, on the road last year on the road to eighty eight three eighty obp five to fifty four, slugging on the road nine to thirty five ops. That's why I'm so in on Nolan Jones because he's not just a Colorado product. You're one hundred
percent right that babbit cannot hold. We know it's gonna come down, but evens something in two sixty and still goes thirty twenty, I'll take that to the bank.
And that's still good at eightyp.
And that may be what happens, like and I kind of.
That's still if I told you that's the top fifty player, you would agree, right.
I think it's right there. But see, like I think like a high outcome has to be in play for him to return that value. He might be a twenty twenty guy again with more at bats this year, with that batting average regression. So I'm just throwing it out there. I just I don't love the If it's an OBP league, I take him. I just don't love the cost. My other one just wrote, QUEBP league, that's a good point too.
You got is es there.
My other one is Masataka Yoshita. I actually think he might be the third most valuable fantasy outfielder from the Red Sox, after Tyler O'Neil and after Jaron Duran And I throw this out. I even think there's a chance that Rafaela could be a guy that could overpower him. I love the batting average, but I don't like any of the hitting metrics. He doesn't steal enough, he doesn't hit enough homers. He hits at the top of the lineup that is going to score some good runs. So
this might this is like two categories. But I'm not in to Yoshu Masataki Yoshida, especially one fifty three ADP thirty eighth of outfielders overall, and like I said, I think he might be the bottom tier of those Red Sox outfielders.
All right.
For me in the outfield, I got two names. The first one is Evan Carter, going at one oh three ADP. Right now, that's a consensus ADP. It's just too high for me. You see some of the other guys, you know we're gonna talk about, probably on the breakout teams. I would imagine the Cheerios, the Caminaros, the White Langfords. Evan Carter, I understand it was fun, you know, you got to play the postseason, big exposure level.
But he has only played eight games.
He only is thirty nine at bats over actually thirty four at bats I should say at Triple A level. And when players make that jump from Double A to the big leagues sometimes it just it doesn't always work out. You know, for every Evan Longoria, there's a player that it does not work out for, probably threefold, if not five.
So my other.
Concern when I look at Evan Carter two is, and I keep bringing this up and all these shows, is the frame. He's a little slight. I feel like it's a long season of major league baseball. It's a lot of travel, it's a lot to deal with at the big league level. I could see it wearing on him
a little bit. I look at the body type of some players who are young and coming into the league, like camon Arow, like White Langford, and I just think they're built differently, and I think that's to their advantage. So there's a lot of reason why I think he could be a bust at one oh three. I know people love Evan Carter. Again, I don't hate Evan Carter. I just don't like the price of Evan Carter this year.
I think it's you want to talk about a guy who's priced that everything has to go right as a top one hundred player, basically, I think that's where his price is. And the other one is Jorge Solaire coming off a really good season last year, but I don't like the signing in San fran for him. It's not the best ballpark factor for him, it's not the best lineup.
You know. As much as you know, we could all joke about.
Marlins from time to time, you know, the Marlins were chippy last year, you know, And I think that now you'll look back and you see him going over here. I just feel like so Lair people are gonna try to chase, you know, last season.
A little bit. I think they're gonna be disappointed again.
The ADP at one fifty two is still fine if you're looking for power late in your draft, but I think you have to understand too, there's been a lot of up and down the career of Hore Solaire, and I think he's a tough player to gauge. So for those reasons, I think Carter and Solarra players that I think have bust potential in twenty twenty four.
Welsh any comments about one or both of those guys.
I mean, I kind of like es Solaire, I'm a little indifferent about Evan Carter. We had someone was like tweeting us about Evan Carter like I was actually defending I've kind of been shady on Evan Carter even after he hit his two bombs the other day, because I'm I question, like, what the impact.
Springs are not going to impress me for That's not going to change my opinion of what I'm saying.
People like that Ava Logan Gilbert, but he's still not like hitting, you know, extra base hits off a lefties. I think White Langford is the better of the Texas Rangers outfielders. I'm kind of okay about him, So Lair. The reason I like Solaire it's hard to find thirty five plus homers outside the top one twenty five or
one fifty and you can get that there. You could argue ballpark factor as something that's going to worry you a little bit, but he's in a hit in the middle of that lineup, and I think thirty homers are a gimme and one fifty eighty piece. So of those players, I actually like Jorgees Solaire more than Carter, just kind of based off of like my draft acumen. But yeah, like Solaer, I kind of dig I no way I could bust him.
Well, I think you took him in the last draft we did right, yeah, when I think and Bubba and look, I had him in my cue because I needed some power.
So I get it.
But I also have to understand too, for you know, the every two to fifty season he had last year. You know, you got to look at the two PHO seven that he had in twenty twenty two and the twenty twenty one or two to twenty three, so he could be a drain on batting average.
He really hurts you in a lot of spots too.
So I'm not chasing the forty home runs from twenty nineteen when it comes to Hora Slaram, just not going to do it.
And last year was.
A good season, but it was also a good season, you know, in a contract year and now, and you know sometimes you can't chase that either. Let's get to the pitchers here. Well, I'll start first with these and sure these are very simple for me. Blake Snell is number one for me. He's still going at an ADP of sixty three as of us recording this right now.
He is still yet to sign. Right. I didn't miss anything in the last twenty minutes.
Right, I don't think probably releases it will probably and you know what, it doesn't matter because I think it's already into march here and you're starting behind a little bit. There's a lot of rushing. It makes me a little uneasy, that's all I'm going to say. And we don't know where he's going to land yet, and I just don't think we're getting enough of a discount currently on that, because if you're looking at the other pictures going in
that same range, Welsh, that's my big concern. It's I feel very comfortable with knowing, you know what I'm going to get out of Grayson Rodriguez, let's say, or Hazel's Lozardo. Those are pictures going in that same range. I'd rather take both of those guys than Blake Snell. Despite the fact that Snell's coming off of cy Young in a
great season. Now it's like, not only does he have to follow it up, which we've already seen sometimes it doesn't happen with Blake Snell, but also the walk rate's still very high last year despite all the success.
He doesn't have a home. He's gonna be working from behind. I don't know.
I just feel like this is a big ask here at sixty three overall, and Kodai Singa is still being drafted at one O two.
That's the other one for me.
And maybe it's because I'm just a loser Mets fan at heart that can't get the negativity out of his brain. But there's no guarantee that this guy's back in May. There's no guarantee that he doesn't have another setback. There's no guarantee that the Mets rush him back because the Mets are gonna be competitive or have designs on being competitive. I think if you look at that roster, it is not a competitive team right now, especially in the rotation.
So for me, Senga and Snell, their ADP has not fallen enough for me, and the bust potential is too large for the ADP on both of those guys. So I'm probably gonna be out on both Snell and Senga unless the ADP changes, or unless Blake Snell signs with the Yankees tomorrow or something like that, or some juggernaut team that I go, Okay, well you know what I'm back in now.
I'll admit I've been kind of a Snell apologist, oh man, but I'm worried a little worried right now.
I mean, why not it's the sixth of March as it's recording this.
Yeah, I think it. I think it happens this week, but you know say it every since.
Well we said two weeks ago, and last week and the week before that.
The Sego one's ridiculous. Like I love Sanging before the injury. I'll tell you I've been doing a couple drafts. He just keeps falling one fifty two hundred, So I don't know who's still taking him if things haven't updated. But yeah, that's based off of ADP. That's silly.
He's on a one from one two to one oh seven in the last twenty four hours.
That's it in consensus.
I mean, now, look, you're right, that's probably going to change in the next couple of weeks. That numbers gonna drop more. But as of right now, as of today, if that's where he is on the board, I'm out.
Yeah, like him and Bradish are on my no draft list right now, we don't have enough information to invest, so absolutely no. Thanks the two guys I got on my list, We'll see. You might get poked at and prodd it a little bit if people get mad at me about it, but I'm not investing. I've not drafted these guys, I think, like really anywhere. So there's kind of a part of like they just don't fit my, you know, my mix of the pictures that I want. They're also around pictures that I like quite a bit
more so they're pushed out on my ranks. Number one Logan Gilbert, who is eighteenth on SP's sixty five overall. I he's the least of the exciting Mariner pictures in the entire group. Lost a little bit of elo on the fastball of all the pitches as well. The expected slugging numbers I believe on I think every single pitch, Yeah, every single pitch I'm seeing here was higher than the year before. The expected slug so and the slug number.
So that's just telling you he's getting hit harder and the potential still there is he's trying to revamp this pitch mix. He did lower his walk rate, which is Kirby esque, but his expected era numbers were right in line with this above three and a half number, and he's getting smacked hit hard, Like his fastball is getting hit hard. He gave up a one seventeen and a one eighteen the year before he's a good pitcher, I
don't think he's exceptionally exciting. I do like low walk pitchers, but I don't think the strikeout upside is going to be there. I don't think the pitch mix is telling us anything super exciting. Maybe if he starts throwing something else, we'll get there, but I think what it is is he's masking his fastball, and I just don't think we're going to get anywhere. We're paying like a top twenty s but I don't think he That's another thing. I don't think he has the upside to be a top
ten SP. And there's just a hand full of guys from fifteen to thirty that I think do. So that gets me out on him and the other one, this might be another one that people don't like, but is Hazius Lozardo, who is SP twenty three. He's seventy six on the overall ADP. And this kind of comes back to similar things with Gilbert in that I think Lozardo
has been kind of this like heavy. He moved his pitch mix heavily into the fastball last year, and I don't think that's doing him any favors or any big wonder he got hit two sixty eight expected batting average against where the year before it was two twenty five. He also not doing well as far as splits go versus lefties. He had a sub one whip, but it was a one to three to one whip against righty, so he has not figured out how to get Righty's out.
And I just like he's always a good strikeout option, but I think he's expected I got to go back and look because I went away from it. His expected era was almost four. It was three nine six this past year. And his expected era has sat relatively with his era most of his career, but this is almost a full run above. He's getting hit harder. He got barreled almost ten percent of the time. I just like, I think he's a better strikeout option than Gilbert, and
he's cheaper. I actually like Lizardo over Gilbert. Both of these guys are pictures. I'm fading and I will put on my bus list.
You know, Lozardo did fade in the second half. I want to equate that to workload more than anything for him. I mean, one hundred and seventy nineythings. That's just high in the Major leagues. The other thing, too, is the splits at home last year for Lozardo three ZHO seven e RA away four point four to eight. That's a big difference, So a little bit more consistency on the road I'd like to see out of Lozardo.
I still like him more than you, but I understand all the points you made.
When it comes to closer, the guy that made of my list is at one sixty seven. It's Kenley Jansen. It's a combination of age but also injury. He was dealing with a lat injury in February. They shut him down. Now he's back to throwing this week apparently, so we'll see how that goes. But lot injuries can be tricky. We've seen that before. And also a guy that's been around for quite some time. The ERA was up a little bit last year three six three, a little higher.
Strikeout rate is down a little bit. You know, there's a player that's been around the block more than one. So it's not that Kelly Jansen can't be good. But if I'm looking for a potential bust at closer, I think Kenley Jansen could be one of those guys that you circle and say I'm a little concerned about him in twenty twenty four, Welsh, is there a closer that for you have concerns with coming into the season?
Yeah?
Mine, just like Ryan Helsley, don't. I don't like this. I don't do this. He's had a lot of injury issues and the Cardinals continuously seem comfortable like grabing other guys. We would see Gegos get it. I mean, Hicks isn't there anymore. But I don't feel that the ground is solid under Hellsley. Plus you've got some injury stuff, plus you know how bad that first half of last year is.
I think the leash would be very short on Helsey if he were to be to be screwing around early in the year, because they do have guys like you know, they like to go to Diego's. So I don't feel comfortable. I do not draft Hellsley. I push him down, gimme Fairbanks, give me quite a few other closers over him. So he's my bus closer. Who I believe he is fifteenth I wrote it down at fifteenth with a one eighteen ADP. Absolutely no, thank you.
All right, So Welsh's all bus team. William contreras a catcher, Christian Walker first, Nico Horner at tewod, Spencer Steer at third, has Young Kim at short, Nolan Jones and Masatake Yoshita in the outfield that he got Logan Gilbert Hajesus Lozardo and Ryan Helsley for me, jt Realmuto over at catcher, Rhese Hoskins, Nico Horner as well so same Zy's Welsh, Josh Young, Trevor Story, Evan Carter, Jorge Hilaire, Blake Snell, Coodei Singa and ken Lee Jansen. But of course we
want to hear from you. Drop your comments below in the YouTube channel. Tell us who your big busts are of twenty twenty four, and you just might win yourself a Fantasy Baseball Championship Belt, the Ultimate belt from Trophy Smack for your league this year. You can keep it for yourself or you can give it away to somebody wins your league gets up to you, depending on how you feel how philanthropic you might be. Again, you can't be in the contest if you don't subscribe to the
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and all the strategies. Welsh and I are putting out content as is our entire fantasy baseball team over at Fantasypros dot com, so'll be sure to check all that out as well.
That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time kids.
Bye,