Welcome and everybody to Fantasy Crows. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast has with Joey Paid jopis a Pia. Today we're gonna have some fun. It's time for the All Breakout Team for twenty twenty four. The guys we're gonna win you, leagues. The guys are gonna carry you to glory. And by glory, well I mean maybe some money, maybe some I don't know, trophies, or perhaps even an incredible belt, which we're gonna be giving away here pretty soon on the channel. But before we give away things, I want
to keep one thing, and it's the Welsh. I always want to keep you around because it's fun to have you around. Welsh breakouts the definition can be all over the place. What's your definition of a breakout player?
Oh?
Man, I completely agree with what you're saying. Like the line between breakouts and sleepers is a very very thin line, Like I'm not really sure where it completes. I mean, sleepers kind of lives in a world of a player
that is being so undervalued. Breakouts are a player that is ready to take that next step in value, And that's kind of how I view them, you know, even looking at my own list, I would say for the most part, every single player on here is not seen in some like elite tier, and sometimes the jumps might not even be I don't know, like insanely exponential. But to me, it is about the tier change that ends
up happening. A guy that you know hits two point fifty with twenty something homers can jump into being a two seventy thirty plus homerun hitter. That changes the tier a player. I have a player that was a twenty twenty guy last year, but the average stunk. I think this player can improve their batted ball skills this year, can improve overall on the batting average and turn that twenty twenty into closer to a thirty thirty with a
better batting average, and that changes the tier. So these are definitely players that are on my watch list, on my draft list I want on all my teams, But there is no O'Neill Cruise. I did not put him on this list just out of like you know, sanity
for everybody, because I put him on everything. I absolutely think he is a breakout, but he is I've actually defined him more as a sleeper because his value has been so low but I did not put him on this list, so you guys can all feel okay, we will pick a different shortstop and it is the twenty twenty guy I spoke about.
Well for more onneal Cruz content, just watch any other video with Welsh that we've recorded. But no, what you did stop, I think everybody appreciates that.
And we're trying to get different names. We're trying to throw out some other you guys are gonna hear some names.
But we're also trying to drive home certain things that we think and when we are on something like last year we were on Corbyn Carrol, we were on Azzi Albi's. A lot of things that we were on were right and we kept driving into the ground and we did it for a reason because we wanted you to be
in on them as well. But for me, whilst the breakout is a player that's shown you at least the piece you know, they haven't quite you know, put it over a full season, I think these are the guys that are ready to show it to you over a full season that can really give you that productivity that you're looking for. And again, when you're trying to figure out how to approach your drafts. Make sure you go over to Fantasypros dot com because the Draft kid is live.
It is free. Of course if your premium get access to more. We want you to sink all your leagues here Fantasy Pros because again that's free. Also, when you sink your leagues, no matter how many you have, you have ten leagues, two leagues, it doesn't matter. You can set all your lineups right from the Fantasy Pros app. Of course, Draft Wizard is up and running. We want you to be successful. That's why we're here. We're trying
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Want to touch the shiny want to touch the shiny belt.
Speaking of shiny things, how about this hat that Welsh is wearing on the YouTube channel today? What hat is this for? What hat? It's staring me down, It's looking into my soul? What team is this?
Did you say what the hat? By the way, did you say what the hat is this?
This is there's a little bit here in it.
This is the bit is killing on the audio only version of the show. I know.
Anyway, I actually teased this hat that I wasn't sure if I would wear it because it might stress people out, but I decided today We're going to do it. I'm looking into your soul? Who are your brain?
The future for breakouts? I think it's the very appropriate we.
Are This is the lake elsinor storm. I believe this is one of their alternative hats. Their logo is like a storm with eyes on it, and then they have this alternative one where it is just eyes that stare at you.
So yeah, this is like the double vision. This is like a pseudo.
Doctor Strange third eye, but it's third and fourth thigh looking for the breakout.
It feels like a Looney Tunes, like a character lurking in the dark.
I could do this funny is going like this.
No, no, don't do that. Let's not do that, guys. Let's get to the breakouts. Let's start a catcher. And my guy is somebody we talked about last year and we saw a little bit in twenty twenty three, but not enough, unfortunately, because Logan o'hapi ended up having some injuries that derailed him. But he did flash the power. In just fifty one games last year, he had fourteen homers. Yeah, the batting average did drag, but we could say that
about a lot of catchers. When we're trying to draft catchers, we're looking for power most of the time. And those two catcher leagues right now, this guy is currently going as the fourteenth catcher overall ADP of one to ninety six. I think, oh Hopy's one of these guys that you can wait on catcher, even a fifteen team league snag
this guy. He could probably match the same productivity or close to it that you might get out of a Francisco Alvarez was going ahead of him, maybe even a Cal Rawley if things really go well for a Hopy. But again, the fourteenth catcher overall, I think he's a steal and I think he's gonna be one of the bright spots for an Angels team that might not have a lot of light shining on it. So a Logan
o'hapi is that guy for me? Welsh, who's the catcher that made your all breakout team of twenty twenty four?
Well, you can have some catchers with good batting average. A question is going to be the counting stats and where are they going to go? My favorite catcher this is a homer play. I believe this is well.
Now I have two diamondback homers here.
Gabriel Moreno is my favorite of the catchers to not only just draft because he comes in at an overall lower cost.
He's eleventh.
As far as the ECR goes on catchers one sixty six to EIGHTYP, I'll say he can go even go later in the ADP gets pushed up a little bit by like two catcher NFBC leagues that throw that up, so it's even a little bit later. But Gabby Moreno in the playoffs absolutely lit it on fire, multiple home runs hitting in that three spot. He's an under twenty percent strikeout guy. Hit two eighty four this past year. He had an expected batting average it was still over
two sixty. He improved his hard hit numbers. The thing he's got to do is get the ball in the air, and that's what we see from a lot of young players, and this is a pretty hit or friendly environment.
He's going to be.
Put in RBI opportunities throughout the year, and this team absolutely rallies around him, and the playoffs I think was like a really first early sign to realize that they are comfortable as can be with this guy being the number three hitter because he's a good contact guy.
So can he improve the launch angle?
Yes? Will he?
That's going to be the thing in question. He was like a four or five percent launch angle guy based on hard hit and barreling. If he can get the ball near double digits, he will surpass twenty home runs this year. I think the RV I think he is going to blow pass all of his projected numbers, and that's why I'm so heavily invested.
Projections in general have him.
Beating last year's numbers, but there's still I think low eleven homers, sixty one RBIs.
I'll put the check down.
He is going to beat every single projection from ATC or the bat X this year and he is my favorite breakout catcher where I think next year we'll be looking at him as a top five or six catcher.
Overall.
I love him and head to head points leagues too, because the contact rate. Even though he might not hit fifteen home runs, I'll take the hits, I'll take the run score, and I'll take where he's hitting in the batting order. Let's take a quick break in the action to tell you about fan Tracks, the most customizable fantasy platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience for
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Going out to first base? This is one of my absolute favorites. Tristan Cassis with the Boston Red Sox. He is the ninth first baseman on the board ninety five overall, and Tristan Kassas exemplifies like everything that you're looking out of a first basement as far as you like, big hard hit metrics, thirteen percent barrel percentage, forty six percent hard hit rate. He had expected batting average just about
within ten batting average points of what he did. High launch angle, gets the ball in the air fifteen point seven degree and average over ninety one miles per hour on his overall hits. So he hits the ball really hard. He makes sures he makes sure he barrels. He also is putting up a pretty respectable batting average that I think has more upside I think for a high walk not exceptionally high strikeout guy with these type of batt of ball skills, he is going to again I'm picking
on this again. He's going to surpass what projections have him at. They don't have him at thirty. I firmly believe he's going to be a thirty home run hitter this year. I think he's going to cross the eighty run and eighty RBI territory. He's one of my favorite third basemen our first baseman, and there are a few I don't really like that are a little bit ahead. If you can get him at a corner infielder two, I'm in Tristan Costa is my breakout first baseman.
Well, my guy, you can definitely get at corner at first base. It's Josh Nayler of the Cleveland Guardians one twenty two consensus ADP. Again, you can find that Fantasypros dot com. The rank right now is the seventeenth first baseman going off the board. And you know Naylor last year had to deal with injuries. He only played one hundred and twenty one games, but he did seventeen homers and he drove in ninety seven runs. He's hitting behind Jose Ramirez in that order. He hit three zero eight
last year. The X batting average was two ninety three. The K percentage was thirteen point seven. He is a very valuable player, and I think far more valuable than the ADP suggests. I remember last year when we had Aero conon talking about projections. It was one of his favorite players, and he was one hundred percent right. He really did perform. But I think there's a breakout coming where if this guy can play one hundred and fifty
games this year just adding the volume alone. Not only could he drive in one hundred runs easily, but I think you're also looking at a guy that could approach twenty five homers. There might even be a thirty homer season than there two for him if everything breaks right. Steamer hasn't projected for a four to eighty slugging percentage. That's what I want to see. But the funny thing
is you look at all the projections for Naylor. Everything's around one hundred and thirty something games, and I just think he's going to play more than that this year as long as you know, the injury gods are kind to us, and Josh Naylor could be a guy that absolutely breaks out. And the Cleveland Guardians need that too. They need somebody else in that order to really stand
out besides Ramirez. I think it was a really tough season for them offensively as a whole, as a unit, and Naylor could be a guy that could really change that dynamic for them if he does develop and take that next step. And you could say last year was the breakout maybe, but again, I think there's another gear in this player and I think the ADP is far too low Welsh. Do you agree? Yep?
I love him probably.
I mean, if I didn't love Costas as much as I do, he would have probably been number two as far as far as like identifying breakout. So, by the way, I don't know if it was last year too, but Ariol we talked about Naylor this.
Year as well.
Yeah, said, this is one of those guys and when you can get batting average from players, I actually don't even think Costas and Naylor as a combo is the worst thing in the world, because you're gonna get a bunch of RBI from Naylor.
I think Costas is going to score more runs than you expect.
But yeah, I love it, especially if you're hugging batting average a little bit more or you're trying to make up for it. Naylor is a great piece to put in there. He is a home run threat. He makes really really good contact, consistent contact, and we saw the RBIs kind of fly up last year. We just got to make sure that the rest of the pieces around him are, you know, in RBI opportunities. But yeah, I think Naylor is a fantastic pick here.
Well, look ninety seven last year and one hundred and twenty one games. That's pretty good. I also think, well, you know, when you're looking at a guy like Naylor, it's also a matter you know, not only his health, but also you know, is that player ready to make that next step. He's been in the league a little while now, I think you know that comfortability factor starts to set in where you see these kids start to blossom. And I'll tell you this, I'll take an a step further.
If you're a salary cap league, what a great value play he is? Like, you don't want to pay for a big first baseman. You know, maybe you get a twenty five, one hundred season out of Naylor with a two ninety or three hundred batting average, I'd be a pretty sweet return on investment. That probably be a lot cheaper than going after the top tier first basement. All right, for me at second base at two twenty two and adp second baseman off of the board, it's Edward Julian
of the Minnesota Twins. I love this guy. Last year he was the player that popped for me in the spring. I was very excited about him last year and he got called up things didn't go well, got sent down, came back and started to show you all the things
that I was very excited about. And if you go back and look at the minor league track record of this player, two hundred and sixty three games in the minor leagues, right over three seasons, he hit two to eighty five with a four to thirty seven OBP, a four eighty seven slugging, and a nine to twenty four OPS. They moved on from Horey Polanco. They've made room. Julian's the guy. Last year, one hundred nine games for the Twins, he had sixteen homers, hit two sixty three, but that
OBP three point eighty one. I'm telling you this guy is going to be an on base machine. I love him in OBP leagues. I love him in points leagues, which is where I prefer to play, but also Welsh. I've compared him statistically. I think he's the next Jose Vedro, a player that egans just set it and forget it. And I think that's gonna be a very valuable thing in fantasy and for the Minnesota Twins this year. Who's your second base breakout of twenty twenty four?
I probably would have picked Julian by the way, had you not.
Okay, but let's go.
I do love me some Nolan Gorman, and this might be a case of we have to have like the breakout may have already happened, you know how you said that when Naylor, You're like, well, the breakout may have already kind of been there.
Gorman and may have kind of been there. He did hit twenty seven.
I think there's a better version of Gorman, just like there could be a better version of Nailer two.
That's right, But he also hit twenty seven homers and he barely has an ADP inside the top two hundred. He's the sixteenth second baseman, so not a starter in fifteen team rod O. It's one eighty two according to the consensus ADP that you can find over in Fantasy pros. And there's still another gear in here, but that gear has to be about the batting average. So he hit two thirty six this past year, which was a ten point jump from the year before, and the strike cups
have been an issue consistently. His issue has been higher in the zone, and that's what they had had him go work with driveline the previous year on and that's still kind of a you know, a work in progress. He's one of the better low zone hitters in all of baseball, and the hard hit numbers spoke for itself. I mean, forty eight point five percent hard hit rate, one of the better ones in baseball, sixteen and a half.
Barrel rate that's up there.
One of the best launch angles over twenty degrees twenty two point two, and had an average ninety one EV. So you go back to kasas these are kind of similar numbers, except the hard hit and launch angle even bigger. For Gorman, his expected batting average has been two thirty nine or two thirty eight for two straight years. The difference is his actual batting average is two thirty six.
If he can improve higher in the zone just a little bit, he can start matching what our higher expected stats and he will be one of the bigger values post one point fifty thirty plus homers in the middle infield. If you can get a two forty batting average would be phenomenal. It'll just be will we get that? Every projection system says, so we're well atc two thirty nine, I should say, but essentially two forty. But you've got
right in that range. Give me two forty and give me thirty plus homers and Nolan Gorman where he can be a big breakout this year.
Love it all right, Let's get to the third base side there. Who is at the hot corner to break out in twenty twenty four? Welsh?
All right, for my third baseman, I'm going off script a little bit. I'm picking Michael Busch, who and why say off script? ADP of four hundred ranked thirty five will not actually most likely play that position. And I'm throwing out the bigger caveat is Cody Bellinger. Cody Bellinger resigning If we had heard that Michael Bush was going to be like a primary first baseman. If Bellinger comes back and as a primary first baseman, that leaves us some questions. If he goes into center field, it opens
it up. They've also said they have not announced who the third basement is going to be. It could be morele could be Michael Bush. But the reason I want to focus on Michael Busher is he does qualify at this position and this team. Given the at bats, He's ready to have his breakout season. He's ready to be a higher batting average and Nolan Gorman type ATC only has ninety one games, but twelve homers, hitting two thirty seven,
he's gonna hit high. He hit three twenty three in Triple A this past year, obviously a friendlier ballpark in the PCL, but he had an under twenty percent strikeout percentage, K percentage eighteen point eight, a high walk percentage, and he hit twenty seven homers in Triple A alone. If he's given the opportunity in a friendly ballpark in Chicago, he will hit over twenty homers. He is absolutely free. But the question is is does a playing time get
decimated by Cody Bellinger. There's probably a lot of players we could have picked here. This has been someone I have been picking up in drafts. He's now cheaper than ever because of Bellinger. But if he does lock down that spot, be it at DH, be it at first, be it at third, be it at all of it, and he gets regular at bats, he's gonna hit over two fifty and he's gonna hit over twenty homers. It'll be a breakout for Michael Bush.
I feel like Morell's gonna get that first crack at bats. That's just how I feel about it.
But that's gonna be The thing is where are they? Are they comfortable moving players? I think Bellinger might play between center and first base. Pete Kraarmstrong is a big kind of key to this as well, if they move these pieces around in Michael Busch, Michael Busch just it doesn't matter the position. He needs the regular playing time and if that happens, he is going to break out. If not, egg on my face, this one will not work, all right.
Noelve, Marte is that guy for me at third base one to eighty five ADP, the nineteen third baseman going off the board. Marte did get a small sample size with the Reds last year, thirty five games, but my goodness was a good three to six team batting average three sixty six OBP of four to fifty six slugging. He's got power, he's got speed. You look at the minor league track record again. He's just turning twenty two this year, but the minor league track record is good.
A two eighty two slash with three sixty seven, four sixty seven, eight thirty three ops. These are all the things you're looking for. He's got power, he's got speed. He has got the profile. We've been waiting for this kid a long time. The first time I saw him Welsh, I want to say, the first time I saw him was in twenty twenty one play and he was in the Seattle organization still and I it was very impressed by this kid, and I thought, this guy is going
to certainly skyrocket through. And then obviously the change of scenery there in that big tray with Luis Castillo brought him over to Cincinnati. But Cincinnati, there's a lot of reasons to be excited. It's a young team. There's gonna be growing pains. But I think Marte's skill set, with the pop and the speed and the ballpark factor he's gonna be playing in I think it's enough for him
to break out. I think it's enough for him to be the everyday starter at third, and I think it's enough for him to translate not everything that he did last year in those thirty five games in the small sample, but enough of it that I think he's going to be a huge value with that return on investment. Now, when it comes to shortstop, I went back and forth on this one. I've been really I don't know about you but I've been drinking the Michael Garcia kool aid. But at the end of the day, I had to
go with my boy, Junior Caminaro instead. Now he qualifies it short, qualifies a third in most of your leagues. But Kamonaro, to me, we just talked about the goods. He's the goods. Hits the ball the opposite field with power, makes great contact. I don't think there's anything left for him to really prove. I know he is to kid, I know it's another young player, and it feels like I'm talking dynasty here, but at the same time, well,
it's hard not to get excited about this player. Jose Cabalio is the only thing standing in his way, and I just don't think it's enough. I think there's a big giant gap in the middle of that order without Wander Franco. And you're looking at a guy last year in twenty twenty three that combined in single A or should say high he in double A thirty one homers, ninety four RBI hit three twenty four with an nine to seventy six ops. There's very little for this kid
to learn. I think he will get his fifty to seventy five, maybe even one hundred at bats at Triple A. I don't think it's gonna take that long. I think by Memorial Day this kid is up. If not May first, he's up. And I think cam Naro is going to take this league by storm. He's going to be a tremendous player from the jump, and he's a guy that I want to invest in very much. Now you're the prospect guy. Do you think I'm being too excited about kem Naro's twenty twenty four impact?
No, I mean I'll throw out a couple of things. He's not gonna play shortstop at all, So I would say, well, I just want to point I don't.
Think he would if they really want to get the bat in there, Like if they really want the log jam him in there, he could.
The flexibility is yeah, the flexibility is there if if he were there and they want because here's the deal, Yeah, Yandy or Estoc Pardes, they could be the problem at third. But you know, if Praidies moves to DH, they could have Yandi at first. Camon Arrow made it like a really great defensive play in spring, like he's a good defender there. Amedrozario's kind of popping at shortstop. Caman Arroo would actually provide them flexibility because he can play corner and in that middle.
All of that.
Aside, I agree with that. I don't think this could be more than fIF I think by May first, if he's not up, I would be absolutely shocked because this guy's ready. He's defensively been playing solid. I talked with Carson Williams, his prospect teammate, who you know is a defensive wizard, and he said, how close him and camon Arow are working defensively. His bat is absolutely live. I
don't technically, I don't pick like prospects for this. I mean, if I would, I would have probably done Holiday and I would have done cakemon Arrow.
Because I agree with you, I want to draft him.
He's a guy that I guess for all intensive purposes he's going to break out because he's going to be given an off oportunity. And I think he is a smoke and steel after two hundred because you get him as a.
Bench of projections, Welsh, I see they have Aranda as d H Paritis a third and Diaz at first. Do you think I mean again, I I'm looking around and I think that Cameron Aro is a piece that you can't stunt the growth of for any of those guys. As good as Diaz was last year, in Paridis was last year at times too.
I agree that the Randa thing is interesting because it's like that's like that stubborn, like what do we have out of this guy?
You know, do we want? We need to see what we like?
That presses that. But there were Estock Parides trade rumors in the offseason. I would still say there's an opportunity. If this team is committed to cam and Aro, you could see a player like Esock Pradies just get moved before camps are, before camp's end, in the season starts.
But that's why you want to make the bet.
I don't think Jonathan Ronda is enough to hold back camon Aro. I don't think, you know, finding the spots for Estock Praides is enough to stunt them not bringing him up. And the Rays really should consider if if they can find a way to make this happen, get you have potential extra pit compensation. If he were to start from day one, he legitimately could win Rookie of the Year and that is more player pool money in
the draft. So I don't think the team should be dismissive, and I don't think we should be dismissive because of some of the early words. Sometimes got to motivate these guys, make them show you that they deserve to be the guy, and I think Kemano has been doing that in spring.
I would keep an eye on lineups towards the end of spring too, because if Michael Garcia of the Royals starts hitting, I don't know one, I don't know. They decided to MJ. Melendez is not the leadoff guy or whatever they and they lengthened that lineup a different way.
That would also be a guy. And the guy that you're going to talk about, Anthony Volpi, is a player that I've seen play in person many times here in New Jersey where he played for the Somerset Patriots, and I was surprised he didn't hit the ground running last year. But I think, just like you, he is ready to do that in twenty twenty four and break out.
Yeah, And that's what I talked about at the top.
I mean, this is we're talking about a guy that went twenty twenty and we're like, hey, he's going to break out. And it's like, well, how does that happen? Well, it's because the guy hit two oh nine.
Hit two oh nine.
Last year.
He had two oh nine while not even having a thirty percent strikeout rate, which that's kind of wild in general.
Here's a semi positive not that there's a lot of plate appearances to it.
But so far in spring training he has a ten percent strikeout rate, so that has been exceptionally low. He's hitting over three point fifty. I've seen him in the minors. Now, he did this in those early stages of his career, but then he kind of he really had like a high push advancement. I mean, you know, he's twenty two year old making it to the majors. But you know he had like a rookie season where he hit two fifteen and then he bounced back at three oh two.
You know, he has found ways to bounce back to his batting average. But the problem is he may not be more than a.
Two to fifty guy. What he's not is a two oh nine player. He hit two oh nine. This is similar to Ellie de la Cruz.
I want to point out Ellie de la Cruz the last you know, whatever, it was I'm trying to mat I think it was the second half of the season. He hit like two oh three and still stole like eighteen bases or something like that while hitting two oh three. My point is Anthony Volpi hit twenty one homer still twenty four bases while hitting two to oh nine in a Yankees lineup. The upside is there. So expected batting average was in the two thirties. I think you can
cut the strikeout percentage. We know he can steal. He is a legit thirty thirty option. He gets the ball in the air almost ten percent, barrel rate, over forty percent hard hit. All of those things we like. It is just about pitchment. He hit fastballs pretty well. It's about hitting off speed stuff and doing it consistently. And he has shown that in the miners before. I think
he can do it. He can hit two thirty or two forty absolute breakout campaign and we're going to be figuring out what do we do with this guy that hit thirty thirty but has a lower than two to fifty batting average. He's gonna teeter between a third and like a you know, fifth round pick somewhere in there. I think Anthony Volpi is going to break out, and he did it while kind of stinking in his first year, so improvement even better break him out.
I gotta say too. I'd love to see him get moved up in the order too, because I think that's a p Also, he's hitting an eighth spot right now. I know Lemayhews at the top of this order, and you know he's got to get hot in order to justify and move up. But if he gets moved up, he's gonna see so much better opportunities in terms of guys having to pitch to him. Because we have Soto and Judge behind you, you got to pitch to Anthony Volpi, and I think that would go a long way to
his development. I wish the Yankees would take that leap of faith, but it doesn't seem like, at least in the beginning of the year. That's something I want to do.
One good thing, though, is if he is hitting nine, this is one of those like top ten teams where you're like, if you can hit nine and you've got Judge and Soto kind of right behind you, the run opportunities might present themselves in a pretty positive way.
He's got it, not press. But I mean again, he.
Is that guy. Though he is a grinder, he's a very hard nosed player, and I think last year he just pressed too hard, you know. I think that was a big problem.
Also a little bit, I forgot to mention a two point fifty babbitt. That's that's an incredibly low babbitt. That that is an easy book, an identifier of positive aggression that has to come up. And that's a lot of what plays into the batting average. Coming up two thirty seems like very reasonable and that's not super exciting. But if we get to two forty two to fifty, Anthony Volpi will be a problem.
Yeah, I agree, uh in a good way.
By the way, for these people on all the good ways.
Let's talk about the outfielders. Welsh, who did you pick for your all breakout team of twenty four?
All right, I've definitely talked about these guys. My two big breakouts. Number one Riley Green with the Detroit Tigers, who hit two eighty eight and only ninety nine games, eleven homer, seven stolen bases.
Last year.
He improved what did he improve? Launch angle, barrel percentage, hard hit percentage, All of those improved really good, hard hit forty six percent, double digit barrel Those are kind of key metrics that I'm looking for, especially for players that have, you know, exceptional skills and how can they continue to improve. There you go, he's gonna barrel up the ball. He's gonna hit it hard. That's gonna do good things for you. His expected batting average was too
eighty seven. He hit two eighty eight. We know he's gonna hit for high batting average. He had an almost one fifteen max EV. So it all maintains that he can hit the ball hard, and he does it on a high at batting average, and you know what, that usually equates to really great offensive results. The ballpark isn't the best, but I do think that Riley Green can push twenty five homers this year. I think he can steal double digit bases, none of which are projected, but
projections are all over on games played. If he stays healthy, I think he will be a force in that lineup. And he is a smoking deal at one sixty three and the thirty first outfielder.
My other one.
We actually said a little scare the other day. He's another one of my favorite late targets. He's going off at two hundred and the forty fourth outfielder according to the average ECR. It's Jaren Duran who had twenty four stolen bases last year. He had a high batting average, hitting two ninety five. His expected batting average is almost two seventy. Again, those those metrics, we're looking for forty
five percent hard hit rate. That's huge double digit number on the launch angle over ten percent.
He improved.
He didn't improve year over year, he improved over his rookie rookie year. Barrel percentage is still a little bit too low, but his expected numbers are for the most part, in line across the board. And here's the big thing. I think he's going to steal like crazy this year if he stays healthy. What did he have He had twenty four stolen bases in one hundred games. I think he's going to push forty this year. He has a chance to hit high in the lineup, and those hard
hit numbers give him a really good baseline. Jaron Durant at two hundred is lol. Overall, he is a fourth to fifth outfielder on every single team. And you know we're talking about Nico Horner who hits for a high batting average and steals forty bases. Jaron Duran might put up Nico Horner's numbers in the outfield and go one hundred and fifty spots later. So gim me Jared Duran, he's gonna breakout.
Yeah, that's a huge difference there, all right, looking on to the outfield for me, Jordan Walker, post hype, sleeper, perfect opportunity one twenty four. Overall the thirtieth outfit are going off the board, Jordan Walker. When you look at the minor league numbers, I mean they're elite A three ZHO one three eighty three five ten slash and eight ninety two ops. Last year, you know, some ups and downs, got sent down one point two, but over one hundred
and seventeen games he did it. Sixteen homers, hit two seventy six. He held his own. A lot of the problem too, was on the road, where his OPS was one hundred points lower on the road as opposed to at home. I'm home cooking. Things were good for him when he went out, not so good away. So he became a guy that he really had to manage a little bit more in terms of Yeah, daily transactions or weekly lineups. He had to really account for the schedule when it came to Walker if you were paying attention
on how to utilize him. But I've comped this player to Jermaine Die before. To me, that's the kind of hitter he is, and Jermaine Die was a very useful piece for a long time. I think this guy post hype. I know last year you are very much a Jordan Walker guy. I don't feel like I've heard you talk about Jordan Walker once this year, so I want to talk about him. But before I do, the other guy that I have is jex Centchurio, who I know you're
excited about too. There is another dude where Look, when you give a twenty year old kid an enormous extension, he's going to play and he's gonna play every day. He's a good defender. He is the deal when it comes to power, when it comes to speed, when it
comes to all of those intangible qualities. We are in a embarrassment of riches right now when it comes to this young talent that's being filled through the major leagues, and it's stunning to think that they're getting there at twenty twenty one, twenty two years old, and they're making an impact. I think Churio is just that next guy to make an impact. It's a good ballpark factor for him. He's got some lineup protection now that Hoskins is there
with Yelich, so there's some pieces. Contraras is there too, so they've got some pieces around him. It doesn't have to carry the offense. We'll see where he ends up hitting in the batting order. That could have something to do with it too, how far that breakout could be. But again, I know I've got a couple of rookies on this list, but I think these guys are not just your average rookies. I think this is going to
be a very special year of rookies. Remember back in the day, boys and girls, when you had your tops traded nineteen eighty six and you look. Did all the rookies in that class? I know Welsh doesn't because.
I put three years old, I don't remember that.
I remember it. It was Barry Bonds, and it was Will Clark, and it was all these bo Jackson was all these guys. It was a historic rookie class. Barry Bonds, Bobby Benia, all those guys were in there that to me could be this rookie class in twenty twenty four is a special group. Welsh. So Jordan Walker, how come no Jordan Walker noise for no I'm in.
I know there hasn't been a lot.
Well, one of the things I thought was super interesting was Mason Wynn confirmed that Jordan Walker had gained twenty pounds of muscle in the off season and that those are you want that from a guy like that already explosive batspeed. I remember he was here and there as in a fall league, and my son got to meet him and take a picture with him, and he was in just pure awe of the size of Jordan Mark because you know, I'm a big dude. We were just
hanging out together. You know how Jordan Walker like looks down on me. And for a guy to get even bigger with explosive batspeed, I'm all in.
I am in.
I guess I haven't really like signaled him as this guy, but I'm drafting. I'm trying to draft him where I can.
I've got him.
I think inside the top one hundred. Think he might have even worked with some drive line this year. I think it's fantastic physically, he has all the elements to just be a superstar, and I love the idea of the added muscle to get the ball in the air a little bit more, and he was making really good contact.
I love him and I love Cheerio.
I tweeted out that picture from before we went on our trip, so like a week and a half ago, when I was at Brewers Camp that I thought it was interesting that Cheerio was working exclusively with Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell South Frilic in that same session. The entire day was on a backfield working at third base. I really think Pat Murphy has made the decision that Frillic is gonna be a third base slash super utail guy, and they are putting Cheerio in that lineup. That's how
they have treated him his whole time. The question would be did they fall in love with Joey Weimer. I don't think so. I think Weimer and Garrett Mitchell can kind of play up platoon, Cheerio can do it, and south Frillick kind of comes off there. So I am resigned to Cheerio making this roster and that's why I ranked him like right inside the top one hundred, and
that might be even a little bit low. I will say, though he struggled kind of most of camp and then just had like a big day just the other day and improved his batting average to three hundred. But I'm with you on both of these players, and I think I do think Cheerio is gonna break camp with the team, and I think that it isn't a kind of an
exceptional group of prospects. We might look back when we go, holy crap, we had Carter and Langford and Holiday and Cam and Era, and we're gonna be blown away by the results.
Yeah, I mean just those guys alone, not to mention if any of the other guys that were not, you know, the guys in the peripheral of that, you know, prospect top twenty, they might make him in Heston Kuerstad could come up and make a big impact with the power that he has. I mean, it's just.
We could still see schemes.
I mean it really, I'm telling everybody, twenty twenty four might be the year of the rookie. Again. This is a special group here. If they can get enough activity at the major league level, let's get to the pitchers here, Welsh, Uh, probably no surprise of the guys. We're going to pick one of them. We have both selected. So let's talk about Michael King, and let's talk about your second selection too.
Yeah, no chance, because I saw you put Michael King on here. No chance I wasn't not putting them on here.
We are.
We're going hand in hand again into the sunset of picks because I am I think still currently the highest ranker on Fantasy Pros on Michael King two two three era as a starter had an over thirty one percent k percentage as a starter.
I love his pitch mix.
I've kind of found similarities in Pablo Lopez overall. Obviously, you know it's used a little bit differently, but I love the sinker, sweeper fastball overall mix a change up with actually the number one whift pitch. And I'm pretty optimistic that this team is not going to press down on his inning. So, I mean, he was great as a starter last year. You're going into a pitcher friendly
ballpark with good runs. You've got superstars, you've got Machado, you've got Tatis, you've got a pretty good defensive infield as well. You know, getting Tatis out of there committing to Kim. I like who they are defensively, I think Michael King. Let's see Michael King projections I think have been like around one hundred and thirty. I think he can push one hundred and sixty. They're going to depend
on this guy. And he had two pitches of a thirty nine or higher fifth percentage and he was a phenomenal starter.
Low walk rate too.
He lowered his walk rate as a starter, So I mean the K minus walk percentage one of the better in the league. I think Michael King he is the epitome of the player that is ready for a breakout because he doesn't fit that mold for a lot of people, and he will be put into the starter role and from a value perspective, one forty eight ADP forty fourth starting pitcher. Overall, he's one of my favorites. And I know you, you've you and me are on the Michael King bandwagon.
Yeah. When I wrote up all the pictures for the Black Book this year on Amazon, I gotta tell you, like, I just felt like, you know, King was that standout guy. You look at all the numbers when you're looking at a trend, line for a pitcher. Everything's going in the right direction. Michael King was not some schlub prospect too. He was a big time prospect in the Yankee organization. Again, it was it's always hard for these Yankee guys some time to break into the rotation because there's so many
expectations that are there. And I think it's always commendable when you have a guy that goes and just says, Okay, well I'm gonna convert into reliever here and help the team and be there. And we've seen guys flourish in that role and become really good starting pitchers. Again, I've brought up a few guys, but Johan Santana is the one for me that always stands out of the last of that ilk. But that used to be the way
guys broke into rotations. They used to be the kind of you know, you'd have to do your time in the bullpen and then you got your chance to be a starting pitcher. And I think Michael King is just locked and loaded, ready to go. He might be the best San Diego Padre pitcher on the board in terms of value, Like I don't even know if that's debatable at this point. Potentially the other guy for you is a Homer pick. So let's talk about Brandon Fought.
Yeah, Brandon Fotch is too good of a deal. I can't get over that. He's a two to eleven on ADP the fifty seventh starting pitcher. I think he legit can be a top thirty, top thirty five guy.
Here's an interesting thing.
From September on, he had an over ten k per nine with pending the miney and I'm including the playoffs by the way, So September on with the playoffs because it went to the World Series, he had a two or under walk per nine to go with that ten k per nine. This was when he chanted, when Strom had him move on the mound and then he was going sinker fastball, sweeper with a little bit of change up. But that over ten k per nine with two or lower walk per nine. Of qualified pitchers, there were only
like six pitchers that did that that last season. And they're all like amazing pitchers. By they're all the name Luis, Castillo and Strider. You know, they're all the best names. So my idea is, this is a guy that won one hundred and eighty innings in the minor leagues. The year before he found his improvement, he was phenomenal. Era was into the low threes. He had over ten k per nine September on into the playoffs, the most important time, he stopped walking guys.
He's a home.
Run problem, but he's going to get all the innings he can on a great defensive team with offensive support. He is one of their top counted pitchers and he's going to probably be in that number four spot. I think Brandon Fought is just a crazy, big steal. The breakout's going to happen, and we're going to be talking about him in that same third you know, in that thirty range of pictures, he's gonna change multiple tiers up
and we're gonna laugh. I think we're going to laugh at him being like almost sixtieth.
Overall on starting pitchers.
So I know it's a homer. I had him last year and it was kind of egg on my face for a bit. I'm hopeful that that's going to change, and I think the changes that they did with him September on through the World Series is a proof that this guy can be in the upper echelon of fantasy pitchers.
Now for me. The other guy's Bailey Ober at forty five overall in terms of the pitchers, one fifty six in adp Ober to me, really starting to settle in nicely last year, very strong season for Bailey Ober and you know, you start to look around, he said, Okay, the ERI was three forty three, but the XCRI was three six three, so not that far off. I just feel like that Minnesota Twins rotation is loaded. I think
it's a great thing. Whenever you have young pitchers, they can let him just kind of fly on their own. They don't have to do too much, they don't have to worry about being at the top of this rotation. Pablo Lopez is that guy already, he has that gig. Joe Ryan gets a lot of publicity, as he should. But Bailey Over is a guy that I think is kind of floating around right now, and I think, just like Michael King, ironically, they're kind of going back to back.
It just feels like a no brainer pick to me because it's upside with the win potential. Last year, one hundred and forty four in things, one hundred and forty six strikeouts, just twenty nine walks. The walk rate is minuscule. If you keep the walks down, the hits low, you're going to have success. The whip was at one point oh seven last year, again one forty four in the inning soda last year, he could easily get up to one seventy five. That's huge. I think the win potential
is there for him too. Love the bullpen as well, at the back end of this bullpen for the twins, so I think there's a lot to like when it comes to Bailey over If he does make thirty starts this year, he's going to destroy the return on investment, just absolutely obliterate it. Love the guy and speaking of a bullpen and back ends of closer situations Andres Munos, I'm gonna go back to the well again. Welsh knows.
I love this guy. Last year I talked about him so much, and then last year start off with the injuries. Eventually things did clear out, Seawald moved on and Munios moved in. He is at one twelve overall, the thirteenth closer going off the board. But this guy has the fastball velocity. He's got the stuff to become a dominant closer. So I think he's ready this year with a healthy offseason, a healthy spring to really hit the ground running and become the guy that I thought he was going to
be last year. So just kind of like Jordan Walker Andres Munio. Sometimes we're a year early on a guy, and I feel like I'm a year early on Munios, a year early on Walker, but and then on Edward Julian too, So I'm buying back into a lot of these players. But I think twenty twenty four is gonna be the breakout for those guys who's your reliever that you're high on, that you think can breakout in twenty twenty four.
By the way, I like that Munyo's one. I was huge on him last year. I was worried about Brash taking over that job, but then Brash had this injury that probably is going to just allow Munya to run with it, So I love that. And they got rid of pre Lander Barrow, who they traded to the White Sox, so it's like all the options to take away from Munnos are just kind of fading. So that's a great
one mine kind of simplistic into my bus territory. I come to the breakouts and I'm gonna pick Evan Phillips, who is the fifteenth closer going or if I'm sorry, fourteenth closer going off the board ADP One thirteen, whatever, But give me a Dodgers closer.
Give me a Dodgers closer that they trust.
We have seen more confidence come out of camp from Dave Roberts about Evan Phillips, who, by the way, wasn't giving up a whole bunch of contact.
He did have.
I mean, ex wOBA was like top ten percent against a strikeout rate right around the thirty was twenty eight point two k percentage, low walks, He had a really low era.
Expected era was a bit up. But really, I.
Don't even tell you all that stuff. He's with the Dodgers. He's gonna be the guy. If he falters a lot, they can go to Bruce Dharr and they do obviously have some options. But he has been great in spring. He's got the trust, and you've got the best off in baseball behind him, and there's going to be a lot lot of opportunities. So I love a closer with opportunities that's not inside the top ten. He will break into the top ten this year and probably be a
stupid value. So Evan Phillips is my breakout closer all right.
Just to run through the rosters for you. For the breakout teams, Welsh has Gabriel Moreno, Tristan Cassas, Nolan Gorman, Michael Bush, Anthony Volpi love that one, Riley Green, Jaron Durand, Michael King, Brandon Fott and Evan Phillips. I've got Logan o'hapi, Josh Naylor, Edward Julian Noelvee Marte Junior, Kemenaro, Jordan Walker, Jackson Curio, Michael King, Bailey Ober and Andre's Munio's. But we want to hear from you who are the breakouts in your mind in twenty twenty four. Drop your names
the comments below. Tell us who you're drafting with fervor, with excitement. You just might win yourself a trophy Smack Championship belt while you're at it. Don't forget to subscribe to the YouTube channel. As Welsh's hat is looking deep into my soul right now, very unsettling. Don't get to do that. Ring the bell for notifications, and of course make sure you sink all your leagues over a Fantasy pros two to use all the draft software and to use all of the incredible tools to manage your team.
To draft your team. The draft Assistant with Sink will help you get all the right players on your squad without a doubt, so you are ready and armed and dangerous, just like Welsh's hat for the twenty twenty four baseball season. That'll do it for us, because I'm gonna have nightmares, but the story of the game goes on. For the Welsh's hat, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids. Nightmare for you all.