The best of the busts. Welcome in everybody, the Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is Meet Joey p joe Piece Apa, and today it's about the bus. That's right, it's the Monday we're recording this.
Everybody's grouchy, and everybody's always got problems on Mondays, and we've got problems with some players. And to help break down the all bust team for twenty twenty three is of course my podcast partner, The Wels. You can follow him on the Twitter machine at is it the Welsh and we brought in a big gun today from Rodo Wire and of course from Fangrafts, the one, the Only Jason Collett. Follow him on Twitter at Jason Collett and Jason Collette. I saw you not that long ago and
we had some fun talk. We were buying back into Gavin Lux. It was a simpler time about a week ago. And now I gotta tell you, I love you. You're one of my favorite people, but I hate your list. A lot of your players are some of my favorite guys going into twenty twenty three. So one of us is either going to be really right or really wrong. And somebody's gonna be depressed.
Yeah, I figured it was gonna create some controversy. Look at that. I wanted to make sure I picked different names than what Welch has as I didn't want to be like, oh, that was my guy. So I wanted to go through some things and I was like, you know, some of these are going to be like what are you thinking? Jay, So we'll see. I hope I give you at least something to think about with a completely pissing yap.
You know, Jason, I kind of wish we could have, like, had you get to this first, so we could have seen what those names look like on here, because there are two on here that make me very upset, very very upset. It also maybe means that you would have had some of my guys, which I'm kind of excited to see.
And for everybody.
I also attempted to pick like a few different names. We've talked a lot about Bus recently. You may know some of them that I may have taken. I went in a little bit of a different direction for some different bus. But Joe, sometimes I can't help myself with a few of these guys. I just have to continuously keep calling them bus and when they're amazing this year, everyone will remind.
Me, well, let's she's what I have a huge problem with because he's on two of my rosters already. So I'm my god, I've got to hear what you have to say there.
Oh well, well, why's what we get out of the way.
I mean, because you have basically every chance you've had, you've taken shots.
At Dalton var Show. So let's just get that out of the way.
Clean slate for those who might not have ever heard a podcast here between the two of us, give them why Dalton var Show is going to be a bust at twenty twenty three.
A catcher.
I'm trying to be like level about it, like Dalton Varshow is still going to be a very fine player. My biggest issue has been where he's going. NFBC drafts lead a lot of this, and you know, pointing out like if you go to Fantasy pros ADP is manipulated by all of the places.
It's an aggregate system.
NFBC plays a big role in that, and NFBC pushes up catchers, and I think that generally pushes these guys up to a level that I just don't think I'm super comfortable with because I think the position is kind of deep, obviously pull heavy. I think he's going to struggle versus lefties. There's the potential that I'm not going to say there's going to be any platoons or anything like that, but you never know if he's going to get out versus lefties. I don't know if he's going
to run as much. And I've exhaustingly said that. You know, Toronto was in the bottom third of the league and stolen attempts, while the Diamondbacks were like the top five overall teams in stolen base attempt They're gonna go up in general, but those stolen bases come down. The average kind of stinks a little bit, and the homers pop down a little bit. Why would that be more valuable by twenty rounds in Adlie Rutchman. Why would that be more valuable than fifty rounds on Salvador Perez or going
even further. I could just keep listening catcher names. I'd rather not make the investment early on, even though he does qualify at another position. So I think, like top fifty five is just bust material for me. It's gonna be really hard I think for him to return that value. I say all of that, and then he's gonna be you know, thirty twenty and I'll just eat pro.
Yeah, it's funny you should mention Adlie Rutchman in that conversation because that's the guy that collect chos at A good friend, Ryan Warmley, the worm, mister Oriole himself is not gonna be happy about this. But Adley Rushman's certainly a name that's been you know, highly towed the last few years. You know, got some time in last year, looked pretty good doing it.
But it's always the difficulty.
Of young catchers, I feel like, who have to manage a pitching staff and really learn all that, where sometimes their offense takes a second fiddle or the back seat to that. So is that you're concern with Rushman or is something else he saw last year in his performance that worries you about twenty twenty three?
Yeah? Really, no more what you just talked about there? And if so, there was an excellent interview a couple of weeks ago, our buddy you know, Sarah's interviewed Stephen Vote on the podcast and Steve and you know he
now Vote is now working with the Seattle organization. But he talked about the amount of work that went into every game and all the prep of what he had to do every single game, and Joe, as you said, a lot of these rookie catchers, they have to do all of that stuff and hitting is almost like a secondary thing. And this is no slight against Adlee Rudchman.
I love him as a real baseball player. I just think there's a gap between the real and the fantasy that's not being addressed in the current marketplace right now. And that's only so when you look at his ADP it's high and Welch you said it with I'd rather have Perez all day long, and Perez is going that is going lower than Rutchman is. And I would say another point to your point about the catchers being inflated. Let's not forget between between varshow between Lendes, between Langoliers,
and between Garver. We potentially have four catchers that are either being drafted because we know they're not going to play catcher or in hopes that they're going to play catch. So it's like Langoliers is a projected CE one, but you can't draft him as a C one in most in most formats right now, and so you're seeing that
value get pushed up. You're seeing Mitch Garver because he's already caught as of yesterday two games in spring just need you know, need to get the ten game in NFBC, need to get into five in some leagues, some leagues even one, and so you're like, let's do this. So
some of that catchup value is coming up. But for Retchman, I see a lot of I see a lot of that gap where it's like he's a great real player and I saw him play a number of times coming here through Charlotte last year before he got promoted with that, but I'm not where the marketplace is on him. And that's why I have zero I have zero shares and all the drafts I've done.
And the only edition I want to make to this is I am generally any top one hundred catcher is just not going to be my thing. So I'm just not going to have interested and interested in catcher one. Yeah, So don't like I pick on bar Show a little bit, but that's just kind of like all of them.
Give me Wilson Contreras, give me William Contreras. Give me a contraris.
Highest ketcher I've taken so far this whole draft season. With Sean Murphy in an auction, I paid sixteen and I was a keeper league. It's I'm with you, guys. I tend I'm not if you if somebody, if you see my draft board, I took a catcher on the top one hundred. It was either because JT. Real Mutle fell quite a bit or somebody's kidnapped me.
Right, got to do a wellness check on Collette. Let's go to the first basement here collect long did you start with this one? Who is your twenty twenty three bust at that position?
Potentially?
So I went with Nathaniel low here with Texas, and when you look at him last year he hit over three hundred, kind of out of nowhere, and what you look at you have to take a look at the spray chart, and this is one of those things where I look at the law of unintended consequences with the new defensive rules. If you look at the way he hit last year, he had a lot of soft contact the other direction because the defense was giving it to him,
and he's like, fine, I'll take it. But there you see a lot of infield hits going that direction where there's going to be a fielder this year. And you look at the aggregate projections for him, most people have him down in the two sixties. And that's that's quite a drop from a guy to hit over three hundred last year and the aggregates have them down where they have them with that and one of the weaknesses that's been in his profile. And I would say this applies
to his brother too. I would assume they have the same hitting coach because they have the exact same swing. You know, it's like they have struggled with velocity up And so when I saw Nathaniel Lowe breaking out last year, I'm like, okay, it has to be he closed his hole. Well, you go look at the data. He hasn't the league just for whatever reason, it wasn't pitching him there as much, and he was deciding, okay, I'm just gonna slap it the other way and give me what the defense gives me.
So somebody who took that kind of stuff forward in one year, I'm concerned about taking that kind of step back. I don't really see it playing out in the marketplace right now. But that's somebody that I've been avoiding myself.
Look, it's a player that in first pase is not super deep. This year, you know, there's certainly a drop off and looking at last year's status.
You hope that it holds.
But you make a good point, like there's a lot of reason to believe that maybe the batting average of very least does not now Welsh.
When we look at the first basement on.
Your all Bus team, it's another player who might be moving up in his lineup too, which could affect potentially his RBI totals. He saw him hidden in the two spot this weekend over there for the Philadelphia Phillies. Let's talk about Reee Hoskins.
Yeah, I picked on Reese simply because well, obviously a couple of reasons, but like one of the biggest ones is this injury that he had the knee surgery in December. I believe he's getting in a game where he got in Sunday or it's today, it's like right around right now, he's just getting into spring, which is a little bit of a setback, which I don't love. Lineup potentially moving up,
you could look at RBI opportunities come down. Also, XBA we expected batting average is lower than his batting averages past year. He's had an increase in his k percentage for three straight years, hard hit percentage kind of gone down, exit average, exit velocity kind of leveling down about a mile per hour. So you take all those into consideration, and you look at where he's being drafted, you say, first base is in deep.
I don't want to call it.
I don't want to make it like, oh, you could just wait forever. But I think it's like you're shopping in different pools. So it's like, if you know you're shopping in, you know, a high end department store, you're getting in the top end, middle end, You're gonna start shopping at Target. But if, like, if you're comfortable shopping at Walmart, I think you can just be comfortable shopping at Walmart with these first Basement and I think there's like six or seven of them, and Ree Hoskins isn't one.
His cost comes at nine as far as first baseman, and he's kind of the upper tier of Walmart first Basement. I think you've got Christian Walker C J.
Kron. I really like my Ryan Mount Castle and Rowdy Telez.
I just would rather move away from Reese Cott Hoskins with some of those decreases, with the injury stuff that's going on, and pay a much cheaper price, potentially three or four or five first basement lower for what I think would be relatively the same production. I mean, he hadn't expected batting average it was under two forty. He hit two forty. I believe it was two thirty six.
I can probably get that out of Rowdy Teles with a bigger home run potential and probably pretty close to run in RBI totals, and it'll probably fifty or sixty picks later. So I'm gonna pass on Reee Hoskins and he's going to be my all bus first base.
Well, you can also play Devil's advocate and said maybe he performed like that with some of his expected stats last year because of that injury. He was trying to play through that, so you know what happens there. I would also not rule out you know, as you were talking about the different tiers of shopping for first base.
You know this.
We're also in the season where daily news events move things. It's like a week ago, Oh no, Jose Miranda. The shoulder is problematic, and then he hits two home runs the other day, so okay, now we're all back in Jose Miranda. So and oh he plays first and third, so that's all fun too. So daily events move the needle on something. So as we alarm McGavin lux's acl.
Well, sometimes they move them in a very very negative direction.
Room down.
Let's go to second base, gentlemen, and let's talk about a guy who actually had a bounce back year last year, but apparently the Welsh isn't buying it. Who's the second basement on your bus team?
Okay?
So I actually really struggle with this one because of what we've talked about before. The position is not great. It really kind of stinks towards the middle end. So it's like, do I want to pick on the top guys. I kind of thought about Ozzie Albi's because Jason is about to just ruin my day and ruin everybody's with all the positive things we talked about with the guy I love more than anybody, So can you really have post one hundred and second basemen that are going to
kind of flop? So my point was picking on with Labor Torres is. You know, he's got a lot of competition. That team seems like they are really opening up the possibility of Anthony Volpi and Oswald Perrazza being there sooner rather than later. There's a lot of trade rumors that were going on. I don't know if they fully fully believe in what he did last year. Again, you have another instance of like an expected batting average, it is
quite a bit lower. He hit the ball a ton harder, but where he's going as far as second basement is the eighth overall second basement. So really the bus side of this is like feeling comfortable and not taking one of those guys to get Glabor Torres. I think it's going to be a big disappointment. So when I'm looking at these guys, what I want.
Because there's a big tear drop here.
By the way, seven and up is inside the top one hundred eighty fifth according to Fantasy pros overall is Andre Simenez, and that's a seventh second basement. Then you drop like twenty spots and you go into the next guy, which is Glabor Torres. Would I rather pay a close to one hundred price with that type of gap for Torres, or take Monsey later, or take a bounce back on Brandon Lowe. At the end of the day, I'd rather
take any of the top seven. And he is the representative of the first bit where I hate second base, so he is kind of the culprit here. Plus I do think the team is really opening up that opportunity to get him out of here sooner rather than later.
You know what's funny.
I'm looking at Tho the opportunities or where he might land in such a speculative trade, and the only one that really came to mind for me was the Dodgers now because they've got some open season issues now in the middle infield, he could play shortstop, he could play second, depending on how you want to.
Move those things around. So there's not a lot of suitors out there.
Were like everything matches up for the New York Yankees and for Labor Torres. But you're right if they think that last year was hey, let's get out before the you know, the bottom drops out again, Torres, that could certainly be something to keep an eye on later in the year. Let's take a quick break in the action to tell you about animal I love live events, but
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Dollars off your first purchase. Check out animal and experience more. And now back to the act. Let's get to your second base bust Jason Collett, who is it?
Let's break hearts chism? And I will say this, I love, I love.
That you're a liar.
You do not actually.
Hate him, you hate him him being a ust you.
Know, I love. I love that he's on the cover of the video gay. I love the last year, you know, James Anderson and I were like on the front end of this is this is a guy, Let's let's stay in. People were trying to fade them out, and I remember James and I have been very aggressive with him. But my big concern is he's had trouble staying on the field. He's moving from second base to center field, which is a position that puts them at more risk from injury.
So you have that position switch in a big part for him to cover some ground with help, with not as much help on either side of him that he should have. That's really where my concern is. It's not his abilities, it's all the other factors that play into it. And when you see when you see him inside the top fifty, that's where my concern is with him. I struggle to see how he's going to achieve that return
on investment with those factors playing against him. It's nothing about anything else that I see in his profile outside of that health grade, which is is tough to ignore, and the fact that he's moving to a tougher physical position than second base.
It's tough to nore.
And I think you make a great point there about everything which isn't It is also sometimes we get wrapped up in the excitement of a player, you know, and that happens quite a bit.
But last year, the guy.
Who played sixty games, I mean it was a fun sixty games, fourteen homers, twelve still on bases. You know a lot of things and a flashy, entertaining something that's you know, fun to watch. That fun to watch factor sometimes gets you in trouble in fantasy. You want guys that are fun to play every day. And certainly there's some tenuous situations there potentially for Jassism and the ADP range.
He's going in. Let's go to third.
Base, and you've got another young player that people are excited about that you are not Jason Colletz.
Let's talk about all right.
So this is Jordan Walker and I was in Florida this weekend. I was at the game that he hit the four hundred and fifty and the four hundit seventy foot home runs. I will also add that wind was blowing out about two hundred miles an hour that it would not have stopped either one of those. I mean, they were both well hit. But that said, we talked about this a little bit on the First Pitch Florida
panel this weekend, done in West Palm Beach. You know, I have to wonder how much of Jordan Walker's current market price is being influenced by what Rodriguez and Bobby wit just did last year. Because we saw these two guys and the great thing about Julio Rodriguez and maybe you can make the same type of care comps because everybody says both these guys have an eighty grade character.
And you saw how Julio Rodriguez made the end season adjustment once the Empire started giving him a giant zone and it's like, okay here, He's like, okay, fine, if you're going to call that a strike, I now know what to do. And then he went off and just tore the cover off the baseball, and Jordan Walker could very well do the same thing. It's just to me when I look at Walker, we also cannot forget Jared Kelnick is on that possibility a range of outcomes too,
and that was very recent as well. And Jared Kelnick was a can't miss guy and he's missed a lot of baseballs. I know he's having a great spring at all, but your range of outcomes could vary there. And the other thing I have about Walker concern wise, is we haven't seen how he's going to handle experienced pitchers that can command the baseball. He's only hit double A and we're seeing him do some things in spring this year and small stints. But I want to see how he
handles those crafty veterans in trip La. I want to see what he can do against a major leagueers, because they will quickly find flaws. They found it, and they found it in Kellnick and they just pounded on him and he's been forced to adjust. And I want to see what they do when they find Walker, because everybody has one. Once these experienced guys find out, how is he going to adjust? We know the regression's already begun because he was old for four or two strikeasts yesterday.
So Jason can something? Can she something? Jason? Do you want to be a bad guy? Are you trying to be a villain?
Is this from the office? I am the thief of joy.
I'm just making sure just right.
I mean, you're picking on everybody's favorite players and lovel I get that.
I Actually the only thing I would question.
Is like where are we at with Walker where he becomes a bus because he was post I think when he was post two fifty and Joe and I have been talking about him and he push up and if he truly does get a roster spot and jumps inside the top one hundred, then you're kind of like lopping some of that off and you're taking off the value
and stuff like that. But I do think you have to kind of consider, like what rookies have done, where the talent is, and where he's going to really being about a bus But to your point, there might not be a buzzier play that is on everyone's target list for this coming week or the next couple of weeks because of what he's doing and the likelihood he is to make that roster. But he still is coming at a cheaper cost unless it has pushed that top one hundred's.
Right now, he's still overall two twenty.
F its like he's jumping around every at bat. But I mean, honestly, I would say this weekend, this weekend at Labor, he went seventeen in NL only he went twelve and the twelve team mixed, and that was a better price I thought for your twelve dollars. If I'm going to twelve teen mixed league, that's a risk I'm
willing to take. I saw some people speculating that there's a potential he could go in the first six rounds of main event week and that wouldn't ye know, it kind of wouldn't spread the trajectory if he keeps doing what he's doing, we're going to see that rot just keep it's going to go number one with the bullet. I mean, he's not going to get up there. I would be stunned if he got inside the top seventy five. But the way he's hitting right now, somebody's gonna take that chance.
Next up on Jason's list, he hates Julio Rodriguez and then Ronald all buy him.
Just letting everybody know, well, she.
Was the third basement on your All Bus team for twenty three.
Kind of just like the other position. I'm staying in this same kind of pool of talking about tiers of players, and Johanneo Suarez just continuously doesn't jump out to me. Matt, you know, I would have also said Matt Chapman. Matt Chapman, though, hits the ball really hard, kind of across the board, obviously, Johanneo Swarez can hit the ball hard, but struggles with batting average, really really bad whiffs. He was in the bottom five percent tile of K percentage this past year.
Projections hate him this year, I mean two thirty six. Last year was an anomaly. The previous two years he'd barely hit over two hundred. He had a three hundred Babbitt this past year hit two thirty six. Even the bat x is at two oh nine. I don't get down with guys that are going to hit sub two twenty.
I just can't do it.
I can't talk myself into it under any circumstance. And I just think that this is a guy that, as far as ADP is going, has him as a starting third baseman in any format you play in except for eight man leagues. That is a starting third baseman. And that's a recipe for disaster if you really believe it's going to work out. Plus, I think there are better options, safer options. Jason talked about Jose Miranda, who I have been talking about since November.
I love him. I think the contact skills are there, I think the powers there.
I think he's an exponentially better fantasy player than Johannio Suarez. If I wanted floor, I could go Ty France stolen bases to keep Brian Hayes. Not that I want to do all this. Third base, like second base stinks more so than anything else. I don't want a sub two twenty batting average guy and it's a recipe for a bust.
It's a good one there. I'm with you on Suarez. Let's go to the shortstops, Welsh, who makes the list for you?
On the shortstops, there are some to pick from, and I've actually been picking on the bottom end of a lot of them.
This time.
It might surprise a lot of people, even Joe, because I've always been just had like a little soft spot in my heart for him.
But I'm gonna go with Carlos Korea.
And I think Carlos Korea is a safety net for all these people that go. Okay, guess what shortstop is really safe this year? It's a safe position I can if I don't take them. I don't need to take Trade. I mean they would take Trait Turn, but I don't need to take Boba Schett. I don't need to take Lynn Door because I can just keep going back and back. I actually think the position once you get out of that top eight is just crazy scary. I think there
are questions with danzby Swanson. I think Tim Anderson's injury injury history, everybody is just giving a pass for when they don't give it for anybody else. He's the Byron Buxton of shortstops, and then you come back to Carlos Korea. Carlos Korea couldn't pass the physical I don't even need to do the same stuff. We all know he didn't pass the physicals and everything like that, but as well,
he just doesn't live up. He's had one season where we've had the run RBI totals that have been there, hasn't stolen a base in three plus years, doesn't hit over twenty five homers, perpetually injured, and he's the guy that every gun goes, Okay, well, I can draft him if I don't get anybody to be fair because of the position eligibility. He's like seventeenth on Fantasy pros list. But he's a guy that I am pretty firmly avoiding overall, and I think he's going.
To be a bust. Hey, look, you know what I've already said about Korea.
You know, when two teams pass on your medicals, you know, maybe it's a long term.
Issue, but maybe it's more of a short term issue too.
And let's not pretend like career has been the picture of health in his career period leading up to that, So at a deeper position.
I think there's some shots that I'd rather take.
Who are you taking a shot at at shortstop here and putting them on the all Bus team.
Collett Wilson mentioned it, we talked about. He mentioned Dansby Swanson. Dan Sby Swanson, I felt he was very very well insulated last year in Atlanta and took advantage of a very good surrounding cast to put up his numbers. He does not have that same insulation with the Cubs, so that to me, it's like when you look at where his market prices now, I haven't seen that much of an adjustment. It's like, Okay, he's just taking those talents
north to Chicago and things should be just fine. I'm not there because the surrounding cast is big change for him, and so I expect about a fifteen percent reduction in his overall production. That's not playing out in his current market value. So that's somebody I have stayed away from.
I'm stay away from the Cubs period for the most part.
Collette, I'm just.
Not buying this whole half ass sort of We're gonna throw some money at some shoes and take some players and see what happens.
Yeah, it's weird build.
Theoretically, It'szki's already hurt too, Sazuki's hurt.
I Actually I just high highlighted this.
If anyone listened to the microcast and Fantasy pros, Dansby Swanson was in a top ten bus we were talking about. He was one of the ones I put in there because I agree. And it's back to that same Carlos Korea thing that it's just like there's all these guys that people are like comfortably sitting all this will be my starting short step. I really don't want it. I
want one of the elite, top tier guys. Dansby Swanson does feel like one of those guys that you're paying this year for last year's stats.
Good point.
Let's talk about the outfielders that made the team for Jason Kleett, Michael Harrow's the second Jake McCarthy and Masataka Yoshida. Those are three outfielders. Let's talk about him in a cluster. What are your concerns about these guys here?
Rittle them off for me?
Collect sure. With Harris it's you know, people, he's he's in the back of the second round. Now that's where he's going. And when I try to look for historical comps. So when I'm I'm looking at players, and when I look at young players that have such a gap between their walk rate and their strikeout rate. When I when I went back and looked at rec examples, guys that popped on that were Dylan Carlson, Ian happ and these aren't. These weren't great sophomore seasons Cody bell But you know,
Bellinger had a season when he was twenty three. It wasn't his sophomore year, but he had he was coming back from their hurt shoulder. But when you look at young players that have a big gap between their walk and strikeout rate, they tend to either tread water or declined a little bit rather than take another step forward. And Harris, his defense is going to keep him in the lineup. I've seen some people say, oh, you know
against lefties, still sit, No, he'll stay. He's just probably going to go down the ninth because they have options. They don't have to hit him second all year like they like they did once they called him up, and so against those lefties, him coming down and some of the historical concerns that have happened with sophomores that have had that type of plate disciplined type of issues. I am not paying that second round value. I believe by season's end his value is going to be closer to
fifth sixth round. And you know, if you draft him as the second round, you're getting fifth six return to me. That hits the bus area. When I look at McCarthy again, when something comes out of nowhere, you got to look at look at where did it? Where can it go from there? And a lot of his stuff you look at, you know, I heard somebody this week and call it the lollipop screen on statcast, and the speed stands out.
Everything else is blue blue, blue, blue blue, as Wels's shirt right, and everything else is red on the speed. And so everything that's built on speed, anything happens what it happens to the rest of the game. So I have concerns about the market and if Arizona, if they keep running like they did last year, maybe they do, maybe I'm wrong. And then with Yoshida, I just personally have had a terrible, terrible track record with everybody coming over from me to the Korean Baseball League or the
Japanese league. Every year, I like I'll buy in. It's gonna be this guy. It's gonna be this guy. Every year it's been disappointment. Last year I was all in on Suzuki, and when he was healthy, it worked out. But he had trouble. He had trouble adjusting to certain things. And we still don't know where Yoshet is gonna hit. And it's not the same. This isn't your your Boston lineup that's gonna put up a ton of runs, and
so you know they're still trying to figure out. I guess Devers is gonna hit second type of thing, but this is not the loaded I'm gonna score six runs again Boston lineup anymore. So I see these are three names that I look at the chart and I'm like, I'm not paying those prices.
Oh, you make great cases for all three of them. Yoshida's one definitely sticks out to me in points leagues. I can understand, you know, maybe he'll you'll get on base and off, it'll do enough things there. I understand that, But you don't know what the power is gonna be. And Harris as graz as he was, you don't know what the adjustments are in year two, the great point.
There for you Welsh your outfielders.
Where Louis Robert, which again, this one hurts my soul, Cody Bellinger, which I totally get and at least gotta see another guy that that's the one to hurt my soul.
Yeah. Well, and let's talk about these three outfitters.
Give me, I want to the most compelling case for him. I would want to point out by the way, I love the McCarthy one. That's when I've really been hitting on with a lot of people. I felt like a lot of the early stuff was like, oh, death charts, he's gonna hit three, He's not. Corman Carroll's gonna lead off to tell Martes hit to and Lord of Scuriel has hit three in almost every single game this spring,
including today. He's gonna move further back in the lineup, maybe five or six, which could lose some opportunities.
I think he runs less.
So I really like that one, all right, So mine, Luis Robert, I love this is kind of like the Tim Anderson. This is the Byron Buckson thing. He's great when he's out there, but he's not out there. He's never played a career one hundred games in one season. That doesn't work for me. Two eighty four batting average is solid, twelve homers, eleven stolen bases in around one hundred games. Your best case scenario would be a twenty twenty season. But even in the bottom line of projections,
this is the baseline. This is like you know they're giving you the baseline. Best case scenario is twenty homers, twelve stolen bases on the bat X. That's not worth his price. That's not worth where you're getting Louise Robert with the inherent risk, with the injury as well. So I love him, but I don't think he's worth the risk. And there's so many other players like we make excuses for, like why would we take him inside the top fifty
when he doesn't play those games? And really the return I don't want to say it's Carlos Kraa esque because he steals bases, but like, are we even going to be happy on one hundred and fifty game on Luise Robert?
I think that's in question. My other guys, who the hell do I have? I've got.
So adulas Cursia. Here's my big thing with him. I feel like we all got to this place now where we're comfortable. Last year, everyone's like, he can't do it, he can't do it again. Then he did do it. Xba's up to two forty four, and everyone's like thumbs up. Okay, here's what I'm worried about a little bit bigger this offseason. I've seen him in camp breaking balls last year kind of around thirty percent of his pitches, and he really
regressed the year before. In twenty twenty one, he hit two fifty six, which is the highest batting average against any This past year, he started to really hit up fastballs and the breaking balls tanked his fifth percentage forty one percent on them, and he only hit one ninety nine. I think pitchers are going to adjust to him. I think that comfort level we have in aduls is going to do us wrong because the same thing.
The crazy price. It is crazy crazy.
Price right now, and he makes bad contact, he swings through everything, and he's really just barely stabilizing that two forty four to keep going. I don't think it's going to be there. I think he's going to get attacked a lot more with breaking pitches, and I just don't think he has the like floor to maintain a top fifty five overall player. I think he could still be good, but I think this is a matter of you paid top fifty. Let's say what is his ADP right now?
In the dullest Garcia, I want to say, it's like forty eight. Yeah, if he returns top eighty or ninety, maybe you're going to be okay with it. But like, what does he have to do? He has to do everything he did last year to return that.
So I don't like it. And Cody Villain's pretty.
He's seven in the consensus over on Fantasy Pros and I who want to check this, you go to fancypros dot com. You can check it out there at the rankings page and he is the fifteenth outfielder as well. And look at all these guys that you're talking about too. Make sure that as you're looking through these names and you're hearing these names here too, don't forget that you can also put the guys to work here, guys like collect,
guys like Welsh myself. Well, if you make the cheat sheets with the cheat sheet creator and you can go use that on the draft Wizard Fancy rose dot com slash draft Wizard, you can avoid some of these pitfalls are some of these players, which is really useful, so make sure you check that out again. Fancy Rose dot
Com slash Draft Wizard. You could always download the app as well, and the chie Chet Career is great because you could do a composite of the different analysts you like, or you could just stick to one like Jason Collett.
Jason glet's my guy. That's my dude.
I hate, he just hates.
Give me a quick take on Bellinger before we get to the pictures here.
Yeah, I'm just not gonna do it. I'm not going to buy back into it.
I don't think there's any reason he's changed his swing like seven hundred times in the last three years. I don't see any reason why we should buy it that he's going into Chicago. He's still crazy free swinging. Strikeout percentage went up this past year, he walked less, he hit for a worse batting average than I mean, it's just continuous and his XBA was zero point two one three.
I mean, I don't see why we would.
Buy Everybody has the same thing Welsh right where they go, Oh, it's you know, it's a new situation. Let's give another chance. I think it's the worst thing you can do. What I like actually want to win.
I like Cody Bellinger. I want him to succeed.
I think he's a crazy three hundred home run potential guy, but he just doesn't make contact. And like this year, I'm trying to make more of a concerted effort than anything else to really focus in on guys that make consistent contact. And I know that's like, oh, it's such a stupid whatever, but like Doulos Garcia, I don't think it's consistent. Has really big whif issues. Cody Bellinger. Obviously, there's a lot of those players who do I like.
I like the Jose Miranda's my craziest one of all of this is probably like O'Neil Cruz and Jazz Chisholm. Those are huge swings I want to take because of the home run, the power, speed potential. But for the most part, if I do take those guys, those are my risks. I want to have a lot of balance around those teams, and I want guys with really good contact skills and these floors, because these dudes, Cody Bellinger could be a Fantasy winner, but he also could be cut by May.
He'd also be Joey Gallo this year.
Yeah, yeah, great, completely agree.
I don't want to say about that. I'm speechless.
All right, let's go to the starting pitchers on the list for you, Jason Collett, so further Streider.
Hold on away. I'm going to name them all.
I want to let them hang in the ether like one of those two bubbles for everybody to take it in. Spencer Stryder, who I am so excited about, Shane Bieber, who Welsh doesn't like so and you and him are going to see why d eye on that one? And Hunter Green, which I think we can all understand where you're coming from them. So Strider Bieber Green dissect them for us. Why are those guys people who have big potential bust?
So for me, I've seen Strider go is sp two and to me it's it's when I look at a guy who is just turning. He turned twenty four during the off season. He went from pitching, you know, pitched into twenty nineteen. Twenty twenty was a wash twelve innings before the college season was shut down. Uh, you know. Twenty one. He had a thirty nine percent jump in his workload from twenty twenty one to twenty twenty two.
If we were to project that type of workload on him this year, that means we're taking Strider to one hundred and eighty plus innings this year. And that's exactly how he's being drafted. And when I you know, Joe, you were, you were in New York, you came up with the Mets and Generation K. You kind of know where I'm hinting at with some of this, But that's what I was in high school.
And you're also hinting at a team that has aspirations for the playoffs. So if you're going to push him to one aiding in the regular season, that's not even talking about what's gonna happen in the playoffs. Socicly, I look as SB two, you're one hundred percent.
That's nuts, But man, I just need I want them. I see the risk reward And you can have the same conversation with the Grom. It's like the innings that he does pitch. I've heard, you know, make this point. He was even talking about it this weekend. It's like, if the Gram comes out and gets one hundred and forty innings, he could be the best pitcher in baseball
because of the quality of that. And we saw what Strider was able to do last year, but again we haven't seen how he comes back from a big workload, jump and go in thirty eight increase is a big one, and that's why I'm like, I've been out on him. That said, I do have him for one dollar in one of my leagues because I traded what about this year when I was dumping so yay. And when I look at Shane Bieber, love the pitching style, love to watch him pitch, but my biggest concern with him is
the imbalanced schedule's gone. He had a like a two thirteen era against Al Central last year, a three fifty two against everybody else, and so he had a lot of a lot of sweetness came out of facing the Tigers and the Royals and the depleted Twins lineup and the White Sox mess repeatedly, and so that big gap. Now he's got to play some of those other teams. I want to see how that softens up. And then with Green, it's nothing about the pitcher, it's the surrounding cast.
Getting back to the Dansby Swanson thing. That's not a great bullpen that's not a great defense, and that's not inconsistent run support, and he can go out and strike out twelve guys and lose a game, and so I without the wins like I can't legitimately. I've seen some projections saying Green's a ten twelve game winner. I don't see it because I don't know how the Reds are going to get there. They're not Oakland bad, but they're
not good and it's good. There's gonna be times where he gets pulled out of a game and that bullpen blows that lead. So that's that's why I'm out on Hunter Green as Kurt market price, because he is inside the top one hundred right now.
Wels, you've got Dylan Cees, Robbie Ray Kyle right now. You've talked a lot about Dylan ce So give everybody the ten seconds on that, because we already know your feelings on him.
But Robbie Ray Kyle Wright or two other guys you think could be potential.
Bust, Why yeah, I mean Cease has just been big, high walk rates, like the strikeout rates. I don't know how good this team is going to be, and I just think he's super volatile.
I just don't like the cost.
I think a lot of being Nick Pollock agreed, I think a lot of people agree. Just the cost of where Dylan Cees goes overall just doesn't quite add up. And again this is there's actually a balance. It'sunny we were talking about Strider. I keep thinking and Jacob deGrom where it's like, how do you balance out your teams?
You know, would you almost sometimes.
Rather take these players that have, you know, this volatility, but to be like the number one overall player and then just take a bunch of players around them for protection or do you want safety across the board? And I just actually don't think Dylan Ceese qualifies as either one of those. I don't think he's got that the highest. I would rather Strider than Cease all day long. I just don't like those walk rates. Robbie Ray specifically is
one that I'm just not in love with. He had a decrease on his fastball, which was around a mile and a half overall.
And I think it just went away for me. But I think this was an.
Overall pitch mix that his velocity went down. Yeah, his slider went down about a full mile and a full mile per hour, his change up went down, his fastball went down. I don't overall like Robbie Ray and the costs. He's still pretty pretty heavy up there. So Robbie Ray's just a guy that i'm strikeouts also went down, like from eleven to ten k per nine and the three and a half year I just think doesn't fit. So he's just, you know, a little too crazy. And Kyle Wright,
you know, I don't. I think we're paying so much Kyle Wright for what he did last year. And I said this on the microcast, There's one thing I can guarantee you Kyle Wright will not win twenty one games this year. So what does that ultimately do his overall value?
I don't.
The strikeouts are not elite. He has great team contact. It's actually funny because I agree with what Jason said about Hunter Green, like I like Hunter Green stuff a lot, and I love the k's and I like the strikeouts, but the team in general doesn't give you a lot of safety. Kyle Ray does have the safety because of the braves. I mean, the guy won twenty one games.
There's a reason behind it. But you've got still a two and a half walk per nine under nine k per nine is not what I love, and he had a little bit higher his expected The Ray was almost four compared to a low three. So take all that in consideration, I think he's gonna regress. There's no chance that wins come remotely close, and we're paying for him right around right around top thirty overall. Sp So, Dylan Cee, Robbie Ray, and Kyle Raight are all my bust pitchers for this year.
Let's close it out with the closers, then, Welsh, who is your potential bus closer in twenty three?
Well, on the microcast, I told you, guys, Joe Barlow, because Joe Barlow is being drafted inside the top one fifty and uh or no Scott Barlow.
The Barlow's confused me.
I actually saw Scott Barlow today, Scott Parlow with the Kansas City Royals, because he was going inside the top one fifty. And I think that's silly that you're taking closers that don't have defined roles because rold As Chapman is there, and that there's no way that a role as Chapman is there to just sit and be an eighth inning guy. He had a lot of opportunity to go in other places, so staying with it and giving a different name these
guys that are in these questionable closing spots. Clay Holmes is somebody that is in one of the best you know cities, New York. He's a Yankees closer. It seems great, lots of opportunity. The team has already talked about moving him in and out of that position.
I hate that.
I hate the idea of paying at any top high end closer.
And he comes after like the big guys.
He's not like he's going at a crazy cost, but he's inside the top fifteen of closers. I think you have to reach ahead because every guy, almost every guy after him, has really big questions unless you want a Rockies closer and a Pirate's closer and Bednar and Burt, and I don't think you do want bart and Bednar. So Clay Holmes, I feel like people are like, Okay, I can snag this guy. I just don't think. And the Yankees have already told us that he's guaranteed to
get those spots. So I think that's going to be a bust for a lot of people that are like, oh, I can wait on closers, and I'll get you know, a guy that's going to be put in a great situation with the Yankees, Clay Homes is pretty easy for me.
Collect you've got another high profile reliever on yours as well, it's Devin Williams.
Why yeah, I do so another point I would say, there, why why people are kind of doing what they are with closers. Let's not forget that there were only eleven pitchers that had twenty five plus saves last year, So I think that's kind of been boldened people to say, fine, I'll punt. You know. Conversely, I saw something earlier today. Somebody in a in a in a twelveth t o C fifteen OC opened up with Aaron Judge, then took Emanuel class A, Josh Hater, and Edmund dis as his
first four picks, all three, all three. So I want to see what the rest of that build looks like. Uh So, But I think people are more in boiler to say, hey, I'm going to try the Tampa Bay Rays approach and just you know, find all these stream relievers and try to build all these saves all year because they want to they want to take advantage of hitting or whatever early on. But I put Devin Williams because he's going it's fun to watch him pitch. Love
the airbender, love the strikeouts. But let's not pretend that he's been a model of health. Uh. You know, he's had some knee issues. That airbender requires him to severely pronate his arm to throw that pitch. That puts him at some risk. You know, severe pronator will be got like Brent Honeywell, I wish that could have happened, but it never did. But so Williams, he's.
Still happen.
Yeah, but that is not where you know he was. He was our ten staff. You know, there's no such thing as a pitching prospect, just a reminder trade your pitching prospects every time you can.
Uh.
But with so, that's my thing with Williams is I'm concerned that he can stay healthy over the course of a full season. If I am drafting Williams, I'm trying to make sure I get Matt Bush somewhere deep down the draft as some insurance policy with that. But Matt Devin Williams, I want to said, Matt Devin Williams has cost you to acquire the skills because the upside's definitely there, but the risk is there and you should look to mitigate the risk as well. But I'm I ended up
with Williams in one. I think I took him to teach FBI as my first closer, but he definitely wasn't my target.
Well, just to recap everybody's bust teams for twenty twenty three, the Welsh at catcher, Dalton v Oar Show, then Reese Hoskins at first, Labor Tours at second, Ueno Suarez at third base, Carls Korey at short, Luis Robert Etais Garcia, Cody Bellinger in the outfield, and then the rotation is Cease, Robbie Ray, Kyle Wright with Clay Holmes. You know, it's funny you look at this roster Welsh, it's pretty competitive roster.
I mean, yeah, it's funny.
It's so funny you said that.
I was about to say.
I could totally see someone doing the all fade Welsh team and putting this team together, and.
I want somebody to do that. In fact, go out there and do it and let us know if you are.
I mean you didn't have a first round pick if you did, but yeah.
No, you didn't have a first round pick, but you know, it's just kind of funny. Adlie Rutchman at catcher, Nathaniel Lowe at first, Gestism at second, Jordan Walker third danceby Swanson Short, Michael Harris, Jake McCarthy and Yoshida in the outfield, and Spencer Strider, Bieber, Hunter Green and Devin Williams.
Certain name I might go to war with. I'm not gonna lie here, I might go to war with.
Hey. Well, the boy I tried to say is every year we have surprises, so everybody steps up. In order for somebody's up, somebody's got to step down.
And you guys have definitely hit on some big names, and I think that's worth everybody paying attention to because just because a big name, big investment doesn't.
Mean it's a sure thing all the time.
So you rethink and at least understand where the guys are coming from a little food for thought here from the Welsh and Jason Collett. Follow him on the Twitter machine at Jason Collette. He's a great follow He does great stuff in the baseball world. Check out his work at Rodewi and Fangrafts as well. I want to think
the sponsor of today's show, and that is Fanimal. Head over to fanimal dot com or download the Fnimal app and use that promo code fanimal MLB that's fa n im al mlb phanomal mlb to get twenty dollars off your first purchase. Check out the Fnimal experience and experience more. That'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for Jason and Welsh.
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time kids.
That the then