This year's breakouts. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is me Joey b joe Phisipia, and today we continue our week of all teams and today it's all about the breakouts. That's right. The guys are going to take their game from here and bring it all the way up to Hia and to help me break these players down. Of course, is the Welsh Chris Welsh and one of the best baseball writers on the planet. He
is the host of the Beat the Shift podcast. He also is pretty much like Fantasy Writer of the Year every single year. Not to mention, he does a little production system called ATC. It's arial and Ariel, did you project yourself being on this show here today?
Absolutely? I projected it would be a fantastic show. And we know that's gonna happen, right.
Get it, it's already in the bank. Well so really it's all on you if it fails.
Well usually yeah, when it fails, it's like, hey, well what the hell are you doing? We've done that recently, Ariol. Are you in a who wants to be a millionaire? Background? What is your background you got going on?
Here is a background? Yeah? Oh yeah, yeah yeah, who wants to be a millionaire? Of course, that's okay.
We just phil Ben of course that that was a classic that started the whole revolution of game shows on TV, that you didn't have them for decades, then all of a sudden that started.
I love it. I love when it popped on today. And this is why you watch on the YouTube channel because you can see Errow Cohen there is Uh right there ready for Reis to ask him a question. So does that mean I have to talk like this the rest of the show.
These questions one thing to just throw out real quick. I don't we want to get into this quickly, but just want to give a shout out. ATC was voted as and there's always this debate because obviously ATC is an aggregate projection system, but there's also a lot of heart and soul put into it by ariol So there's this debate of like Ariols projections that are an aggregate versus the bad X, which was the highest individual projection system put up, but Ariols ATC was rated as the
most accurate projection system. And I believe this has gone on for a couple of years here, and you've got some new stuff. I think you've aligned with a few new people. So I mean, ATC, I'm a big averages type of person. I'm not funny enough. I'm not like the most hardcore projections type of person, but I like to take a look at the highs and lows of things and kind of find the middle ground. And ATC
does a good job about that. So I don't know if you have any thoughts about, just real quick, the accuracy that ATC has had over the last couple of years, and you know, just how the whole thing has been spitting out and what you're looking at this year.
Yeah, I mean this is the fourth year in a row that Fantasy pros has dubbed me as the most accurate projection. So you know, we'll take that, and you know, it shows that we're getting into more places people are trusting it. It's a household name. I mean, you know, Derek Cardy actually uses ATC playing time within his own projection. He tries that now, so very excited, and uh hey, it's let's make it five in a row, right there.
You go, just keep on going. The dynasty continues real quick, I want to ask the projection master, what do you think about stolen bases this year? I know you and I were kind of talking about, you know, the pitch clock, the ability to only throw over being limited by the pictures. Now what do you think kind of impact? Whyse you're going to see in stonn bases? Are we going to see a major uptick here potentially in twenty twenty three.
Yeah, well the uptick was already starting this past year where we had that really low two years ago and it already started going.
Yeah, you're going to see more of that.
The question though, is it going to be at the top of the curve it's going to be you know, the jorgemiteos and the Monday is going to sixty or is it just going to be a bunch of ten Stone based guys going to fifteen twenty.
That remains to be seen.
I think Stone bases is always a manager's call. It's opportunity. Are you stealing when you have the chance? So it remains to be seen. But yes, it's gonna be up all around. You're gonna see I'm not gonna say gigantic, but you're gonna see a very significant change, and it has to do mostly with a pickoff rule that pretty much it's with one pickloff and you're done.
Well, we should have done this yesterday when Collett was on here, But Collet put out this really great tweet after the first week that was breaking down percentages and what it was was, and you probably saw it. It was what spring training stolen based numbers do compared to in season, and it was usually like a twenty percent decrease from what you see in spring training. Except the first week the numbers were the highest stolen base attempts
in spring training since twenty twelve. I believe it was ten to eleven years, so that inherently was showing that we were going to see a massive increase over the last couple though I do feel like the last week and a half or so stolen bases have kind of tapered down. I don't believe there's a single player with over two stolen bases in spring training, so I've got that down a little bit. At the end of the day, the math that Collett put out was like a twenty
five percent increase. Do you believe we will see a twenty to twenty five percent stolen based increase across the whole league. You said, you don't know if it'll be the top guys of the middle guys. But do you think we'll see like an overall twenty to twenty five percent stolen base increase.
No, I think that's way too high number. I think we're gonna get closer to ten, fifteen, maybe twenty. That's the kapper. You know, I don't really trust the spring training stats. So first of all, this first week they're trying every which way to do everything new.
I'm not gonna I'm not gonna rely on it.
And by the way, because of the WBC, you have a lot of major league players not in spring training, so the spring training stats in general are gonna be pretty murky. I would not put any any emphasis on that. But yeah, the answer the question again, no, that that seems too high. I'd say closer to fifteen, maybe twenty.
All right, let's get to the breakouts here. Let's start with Ketcher. The boys here put together, they're all breakout team. The guys are gonna take their game to the next level. So Ariel Coon a Ketcher who's taking the field for you?
All right, we're gonna go with logan o'happy. Yes, it's pronounced like sloppy o'happy.
Uh.
He the breakout here, I always you always want to have a reason for the breakout, and this reason is playing time. Last year, Sean Murphy just completely came out to the field and burst onto value because he got so many more at bats than what everyone predicted. And I think that's the case with o'hapi here. He's got a nice base of power. His average two forty one I'm projecting, which is actually pretty good for what would
be a second catcher. The ATC volatility metrics show low violativity, like we have a very good idea of what he is and who's in front of him. Max Stassy. Stassy had a one eighty average last year. I can't see him being a threat. I think you're going to see by the end of the year Ohapi being the main catcher and whatever people have projected for him, he's going to pass it. I can see him getting the line and share so ohappy because of the at bats is going to be a good fantasy buye.
Well, at your bachelor party, didn't you have a sloppyo hoppy? I want to.
Say, we don't talk about that. We don't talk about what happened at the bachelor parties. Sloppy o'happies are not shoe, thank you very much.
Well, it's interesting because this is the same player. A few weeks back, we had Frank Stanfel on the show and he was very high on AHAPI as well. So when smart people are all talking about the same players every much, you take notice, Welsh, who is your catcher for the all breakout team with twenty three?
I would have picked Logan o'happy Sloppy o'happy had I've been given the opportunity.
I'm never gonna not think of him with that name.
Now, thanks very now, thanks you ruined it. The guy I picked was Tyler Stevenson with the Cincinnati Reds. It's actually a very similar situation you want to talk about, like you're looking at playing time. Give me a catcher that comes at a cheap cost. I think I said this yesterday. I don't want to catcher inside my top one hundred. No thanks, it's immediate bust territory for me, even if they produce well, I don't want to get that cost because I think there's a lot of good
value later. But if you're talking about breakouts, I don't really think William Contreras fits the breakout. Who's someone I would want Sean Murphy, but Tyler Stevenson specifically does. Tyler Stevenson suffered from some injuries last year, was not able to get a full season, and they're also talking about him playing a significant amount of games at first base. You've got injuries with Joey Vado, so he's going to
be playing kind of all across the board. Fun fact as well, did you know he is projected with the third best batting average in ATC projections. Give me a high batting aver on a catcher who makes really good contact skill sixteen homers on ATC projections that I think he can get twenty plus. He's going to hit closer to a middle of the lineup for the Reds, and his cost is outside the top ten catchers. As a matter of fact, one sixty eight on the aggregate ADP
on Fantasy pros. That's a pretty good volume, which is boosted up because of NFBC. NFBC screwing that up a little bit. It's probably closer to two hundred. So give me a closer that's going to hit inside the top five of a lineup with playing time move different positions, has twenty plus power and top five best batting average projections on ATC Huh, let's go.
I like it.
I don't know about you, guys, but I mean, certainly for the listeners here, I'm sure they would love to have the well scherero Cone inside the draft with them. They love to have all the experts with them, and we could do that for you at Fantasy Pros. So the Draft Assistant is the ultimate tool for dominating your Fantasy Baseball draft. And what it does is basically synks up to your draft and you could have the cheat sheets,
which we've talked about before in the show. You could take your favorite experts put those in to the Draft Assistant with sink. But what's so great about the Draft Assistant. If you've seen our shows here at Fantasy Pros, when we do our mock draft shows, you'll see all the times where it gives you recommendations on players. It tells you who is picking after you and already has certain
positions filled. And that's huge because that's the difference of you making the right pick at the right time and not and making those right picks are everything when you're going into the draft. And if you want to go ahead and get a piece of this, you get that MVP or Hall of Fame subscriber situation over a Fantasy Pros because when you get that, then you have all
the tools at your disposal. But I gotta tell you, if you go to Fantasypros dot Com slash Premium today, you sign up, you go MVP, or you go Hall of Fame, you get the whole kit and kaboodle. I'm telling you right now, that is the key to going in there and crushing all your drafts, especially if you have multiple drafts, because that software our team is so good. It puts together incredible expert advice. It gives you the right pick at the right time with the analysis after
the drafts. Well Welsh always does that. Also on all the shows, they always plug in their teams afterwards. But you don't want to do that afterwards. You want to be there live with the tools. You can only get that again Fantasy Baseball Draft Wizard app. So go crush the competition. Download it and check out Fantasybros dot Com Slash Premium Go Premium today and don't forget you can manage all your lineups from Fantasy Pros. It's right. You got ten leagues. You could set all your lines in
one place. AyL Cone is like twenty leagues. I'm sure that's a very useful thing for him. He should be using the tools if he's not, especially since he's like number one guy at Fantasy Pros every year. So here we go, arial Cohen, Let's go for the first basement for the breakout twenty twenty three team. Who is it?
All right?
We'll go with Cleveland Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor, and there's plenty of room for him to play either first or even at DH.
Last year he was.
Amazing twenty homers, seventy nine RBIs even stole six bases. We know stolen base are going up, so it could even be eight ten, you never know. Decent average. I'm projecting him for two to sixty five batting average. The thing about picking some of these guys is that players who bat in the middle lineup, and the Guardians are gonna be a decent lineup. They've got Rosario in there, Menez, Josh Spell. Now you're gonna have a lot of runs
in RBIs. That's forty percent of your rodo statistics or runs at RBIs and he's got the power in dustin speed and some average. So this is the guy with with that, and I think he's relatively safe. Look at a strikeout rate last year, sixteen percent strikeout rate, and that's been a long track. I mean, he's been under twenty every single year of his career pretty much. So we're talking about a safe guy who's gonna get a
lot of stats, and nobody's paying for him. He's going like the sixteenth seventeenth round of drafts all day.
Gil. It's amazing because we do so many drafts here in the MOCKX and this is a player that keeps falling and I keep stashing him as like an extra utility guy. I mean, I just I don't get it, Aro. I'm with you one hundred percent on Nailor, and I've been picking him up, and every time I do, the draft Wizard gives me that little a little clap, the little golf clop, which is, yeah, you know I need that.
I need my self. Esteems very low Welsh. Let's go to your first baseman, who is and this is a player too that we talked about a little yesterday.
Yeah. I try to talk about him pretty much wherever I can, and I actually slid him over to this spot because most places he is going to qualify at third basis Jose Miranda, who is one of my favorite late guys. You know, I use the term. I believe it was last year where ty France was kind of a glue piece. There's these players that maybe they're not exceptional in a lot of different areas, but I feel like everything that they do really work for the game, and I view Jose Miranda as a glue piece, but
I also think there's just a ton of upside. One of my favorite things I've cided at gajillion times over, but if you're new listening, is his approach last year in two strike counts was better than most people in the league. It was two of the three two strike counts you can have, he hit over three hundred. The other was two forty, and that was better than Mooki
Betts kind of across the board. It's a kind of ironically weird stat but it just showed the plate presence, which I love about him because he's a sub twenty percent k guy, which I think is huge for his game as he continues to grow. The Baseball Savant sheet doesn't necessarily jump out to you, but he had a forty two percent hard hit rate. I think the power is going to jump up. Max Ev was right around
one ten this past year. XBA was a little bit lower than his actual batting average, but it was still in line. And this is a great lineup for him to put up run and RBI numbers. Plus he's going to qualify at third base. I think Cozy Miranda has a real, real chance to be twenty plus homers with eighty eighty on the run in RBI and hit two seventy to two eighty. He's not going to steal a whole lot of bases, but he's going to provide you pretty high end on the other four categories, homers being
a little bit of question that. I think he's ready for a breakout regardless. And it's first and third that he qualifies at, So that's going to be my pick here.
Love Miranda, another guy. I think it's just super undervalued and not getting enough press. Right now, let's go to the second base situation here. Back to you, Ariel, who's the second basement. That's a potential breakout in twenty twenty three.
Right back to your twins there, Nick Gordon. Nick Gordon the brother of formerly Baijor League baseball player De Gordon. This guy has a lot of potential, and by the way, he also qualifies in the outfield, So if you have your team, you can move him and use him. As you speak, power speed combo. We're talking a guy who can put up ten to ten maybe even twenty twenty. I can see that happening even this year. And the batting average won't be thrilling, but it's not gonna be terrible.
He's got a twenty three percent strike out rate, so not a leader or anything but major league average. The question is playing time. Will he play enough? Well, he played four undred at bats last year, and let's see who's on the team. Well, they shipped Luis Arayaz out to clear room of second base for him. That's good. Happened in the outfield, Well you got Byron Buckson. Sure Byron Buckston never gets hurt, so I'm sure.
He right earmuffs Welsh ear muffs.
Sorry about that, but it is true. Sorry, I just go by history. So we're talking about a high skilled player. I like to bet on high skilled players. You know who this reminds me of, or at least not exactly in profile, but in terms of the skills d J lamy who in terms of value. I always said, hey, or the Yank's gonna play him. Probably looks like we'll play him four days, three days. But you know what, high skilled players get to play, and he did. Nick
Gordon is a high skilled player. I don't think that he's gonna be stopped so so he's gonna benefit from that, and he could really help your team down the stretch if you need to fill those extra homers and stolen bases at about pick three hundred, yeah.
I mean gosh. In terms of the ADP too, he's talking about free players. He had four hundred at bats last year. As you were saying, is this another player to arrow that you know because of the athleticism, could be another guy where those six stolen bases and one hundred and thirty six games could double or maybe even triple.
Totally, Absolutely, this is exactly the kind of player that's going to look to make his mark and use his fantasy use his real life baseball value wherever he can. And he has the ability to steal the rules are had that way. That's how he's going to force his way to even more value and more playing time for the Twins.
Composite ADP on Fantasy Program four fifty Nick Gordon, So free, baby free, Let's go all right, Welsh back to you for the second base.
Who you have actually mine is another one of those guys, just like Ariol said, we're going to talk about him in this position, but he qualifies with some others and he's actually going to play a different position, but at C. J. Abrams who should qualify at second and in shortstop for everybody, But I'm going to line him in here at second base because this actually might even be a better spot that you would want him in. I have loved from day one the sprint speed in the miners, even before
really paying attention to Corbyn Carroll's fast speed numbers. There was this Abrams type speed years years ago. It was the Buston speed and then it become kind of Abrams to me, and he flies around ninety first percentile as far as sprint speed goes, already has a stolen base in spring. He's had a pretty good spring as well, hitting two seventy eight five hits and eighteen at bats, and he looks like he's going to have the gig
the entire time. He has put up little Kotel Marteus in him where he has like high hard hit numbers, but his average evs sit pretty low, which I just think shows like when he starts to tap in, it's
going to get there. The stolen base numbers, I think is where every projection is just off on him right now, similar to Corbyn Carroll, I think they're wildly off atc is low on the homers at seven, but has seventeen stolen bases, which essentially is the highest, not counting like zips, which I think a really good starting point at one thirty six. He makes good contact, he doesn't strike out a bunch sixteen percent strikeout rate in the majors last year.
He's just got to walk more. Here's a little upside is in that lineup right now, they have Corey Dickerson hitting two according to roster resource. If he continues to hit well, CJ. Abrams will lead off or hit two for this team, and he will run on a team.
They need to manufacture these runs. So what I like about him is I like the idea that we could get ten homers, ten to twelve somewhere in there, and I think twenty five with a little bit more upside on the stolen basis because they will manufacture and this is how he's going to get hit. Job done on the base pass. When he made his pro debut, I was at it out here the Diamondbacks immediately was trying to steal. It's what he wants to do. At the
end of the day, he just has to hit. Looks like he's starting to get into that space having a good spring. I think CJ. Abrams with the stolen base upside, is one of those players that's ready to break out.
And too, I keep talking about Abrams be gooes. I think the leash is going to be long Welsh where you know he's going to get a chance to fail, and I think think that's important because they have no other options there. They have to have him succeed. Players don't come back exactly like you know, it's his job.
So that is always encouraging too. If you make an investment in a player and there's somebody else that could push for playing time, if that player struggles, they're going to pass him over Allah Jared Kellnik the last couple years, right with Seattle Mariners, players like that Abrams is the guy. They've got to get a return from him to justify the move that they made trading Won Soto. So that to me is a good enough reason to be patient with Abrams do. But everything well shd in terms of
upside is there. Let's go to third base here, let's flip around Welsh. You give me your third base breakout for twenty twenty three. And shame on Jason Kleette for the shade yesterday that he threw on this player.
We're just not having it. We're not here, We're not having it. Jason Kollett's gone trying to ruin, just trying to say something in the point.
And if you missed yesterday's show, go back and listen. It's a great show. And he brought up a lot of great points on a lot of players that we are very into, which is good because it it does remind us, Hey, you know there's a downside here too, which is great. But will she and I are going to try to be practically cautiously optimistic here with the Jordan Walker.
We need that, we need a video. We need the Fantasy Pros video team to do that video and put Debbie downer. Every time he would talk, we'd be like, here's your bus Spencer strainer and then just closed on his face. He was killing us. But Jordan Walker, I tried to not have like rookies on this list because you know, are they even in a space of breaking out. Sometimes you think about breakouts as like having opportunity, not necessarily going like Jared Kelln, it could be one of
those players you could throw in here. But Jordan Walker, with the breakout really exists is him being able to go full throttle. He was Julio Rodriguez and he's still. It's amazing, by the way it is March seventh, as recording this, he is what Julio Rodriguez was in early February of last year, and that the just has not caught up, the drafting and the excitement has not caught up because we haven't got the official announcement of his
playing time. And if he does, we're gonna go because this is a big power speed combo player who's having a fantastic spring. He's crushing the ball and he is aligning himself at every opportunity to get the job. And the thing that stood out to me from day one
was when they moved Tyler O'Neal off. As soon as they moved Tyler O'Neal off, I thought that is just a close, close sign that they want to have that spot open right field is where Jordan Walker they're the most comfortable with and they wanted to find their flexibility
and they want them up rather sooner than later. And I think what the breakout is, He's the breakout in your fantasy value where you're gonna get nineteen homers, twenty two stolen bases in twenty twenty two, had a great fall league, hit three hundred, makes good contact, doesn't strike out a bunch, he can walk, and he can run.
For a six foot five, two hundred and twenty five pound plus outfielder, it's crazy stuff and it is just I know it's reminiscent of Julio and I know it's dangerous to talk about, but Jordan Walker is primed to have that breakout and he's not coming at the cost at least yet. It's gonna break everybody's heart. Like I'm I'm Corbyn, Carroll Corbick, Like everyone's gonna love for Corby.
Carroll's gonna break my home. Got the Jews behind your head there. But you know what, I am not concerned the Corby Carroll that I watched last year. I mean, I see a major league player. I see a guy who's ready to go. Walker has a little bit more. I think my point is, well, because you know, you don't want to have a triple af batch, you don't
have that window. I think the thing is, like you said, it's the value you're getting at Walker and with Walker right now, even if you get three to four months of productivity, you'll get all six because he does spend some time in the minor leagues or maybe struggles, he gets sent down, comes back. There's all these variables, but the cost. As long as you have a patient approach to this, he could certainly pay off and still be a good investment.
And that's exactly it. One fifty plus ADP still and I would even admit, you know, to Corbyn Carroll. NFBC just tweeted out that he had a fifty four ADP and like a couple drafts that he had just done
a fifty. There's a lot of room for disappointment. It's hard to have the disappointment, but if you get you might get a twenty twenty season out of Jordan Walker when he hasn't been announced for the position and he's going to have a big breakout and he really has the shot to be a rookie breakout that a lot of people they were expecting, but he wasn't priced in that he actually was expecting because if he was, he'd be a top one hundred guy.
Let's take a quick break in the action to tell you about fan Tracks. Fan Tracks is the most customizable fantasy platform in the industry, offering the greatest fantasy experience of your dynasty, Keeper, Redraft and Best Ball leagues. Create or join a Fantasy Baseball commissioner league, invite your friends and dominate your drafts this season, and the top dynasty fantasy baseball platform in the industry is fan Tracks. It's not even close. Go deeper with the ultimate keeper and
Dynasty leagues. Create a simple redraft league, or even in a customizable Best Ball league with up to two thousand teams. If you're coming from another service, fan Tracks can import any of your current leagues and customize as needed. Ever, have a trade go wrong, or a mistake and dropping a player. Fan Tracks commissioner tools allow you to undo any move with one simple click. Among the most trusted
names in fantasy sports and Too thousand and eight. Whether it's football, baseball, basketball, hockey, college basketball, college football, golf, soccer, nass car, you name it, they've got it. And if there's anything lacking in your current fantasy league manager, fan Tracks likely has that too. Fantasy sports doesn't sleep, and
neither does fan Tracks. With seasons running three hundred and sixty five days a year, there's a reason why fantasy players who try fan Tracks make it their permanent home for all their fantasy leagues. Sign up for free today and be entered to win an official signed Vladimir Guerrero Junior Jersey by simply going to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros and signing up today. That's fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros for your chance to win that official
signed Vladimir Guerrero Junior Jersey. Fan Tracks the home of fantasy sports and now back to the action. Ariel your third basement is a fascinating choice because this is a player that I think disappointing a lot of people last year, and then there were some questions about, you know, is this player soft and all these other things. So let's talk about the third base selection for you in the breakout. What do you see from him?
I have Alec Bohm, or call him Alec Baum, who's gonna hit a bunch of homers this year. I don't know why people were disappointed last year. He turned in a sixteen dollars performance in a fifteen team league. It's seventy nine runs and seventy two RBIs and hit to eighty. I had him on a few teams, and I was not disappointed in the least. I think, actually, uh, listen, ATC projects him to be fantastic this year, and I think he's even better than I think he can hit
over twenty homers. I was watching him in spring training. He's hitting bombs, and he's not just clearing the fences. He's going dead center, he's going right over. I think he could also put in a few steals. He's stolen a couple pass a couple of bases in the past only to last year, but I think that can go up to five to six. I think that the power metrics were unlucky last year, so that's gonna really, that's
gonna really materialize this year. And again he's a very low, very high sorry, very high contact, low strikeout rate type player, So there is very little downside with him. You're getting a guy at a big discount up with upside and no downside. Really, the only downside is he's a terrible fielder. I mean, I was watching him the other game and there was a pop up, you know, just outside the foul line, and he drops it, and I'm thinking to myself, would.
I have made that catch?
And I was trying to be honest with myself, and I really think I would have made that catch. It was really he and he didn't. So I'm not saying that I belong in the major leagues, but I'm saying that his defense is pretty shoddy. But that is not so the only thing I like to see himprove is is walk rate only five percent last year, but it has been up to almost nine percent in the past. So if that all comes together, we're talking about a
really major good bye here. This is a this is a prime breakout in my opinion.
He also was like my number one weirdest interview I ever did. By the way, Yeah, weirdest interview I've ever done. But I actually was thinking about picking him on this list.
Here, Arian, I want to know something, what about the splits on this player too? Because against Righty's last year six twenty nine ops, but ten of his thirteen home runs against our handed pitching. Against left he is a nine to thirty five OPS. Also, the batting average very different, three fifty two against left handed pitching, two fifty three against right handed. I mean two fifty three is okay, but it's more of the ops that I'm curious about.
Does that split scary you, especially in those head to head formats potentially, because you know, not being able to hit right handed pitching at a standard clip there, that can be a big red flag sometimes on a player.
Yeah, with that in the defense, you know, yeah, it does beg Hey, are they going to get a filling guy? But looking at their roster, they have not. I think they want to let him work it out. I think that they have quite a lot of pieces around it. They got Tree Turner in. You know, Harper is gonna be back in the middle of the year. I think they're gonna go with what they have. I mean, you're
right about weird. I remember, I can't remember when it was, but they caught him on a hot mic saying I can't stand this team or something like that.
And now E didn't like Philadelphia, which is not a good thing to say to Philadelphia. Yeah, I lived there for six years.
No, of course they fired Girardi, and I think that helped they sort of made Yeah.
So he's thick a well, he's a little wild, but.
No, I think I think the value is going to be there, and he just locked in this spring, just three homers already dead center homers, and there's a lot more to come.
I think, all right, let's get the next position here. Let's talk about shortstop. Welch, let's go back to you. Who is your shortstop that could break out in twenty twenty three.
This is probably one of the biggest names. I think this might be the biggest name from name value that's on my list. But he didn't break out, and it's wander Franco Wanafroanco. The first month of the season last year, something I really try to keep coming back to. It obviously could be an anomaly, but in March, in April of twenty twenty two, hit three thirteen with four homers. He had three stolen bases, was a little bit more aggressive.
He doesn't usually strike out as much as well, and he was striking out a little bit more because it looked like he was swinging through the fences then got hurt, and that kind of just carried through the entirety of the year, and I think that's going to go by the wayside long term with wander Franco. I think we're going to get back. I mean, obviously, the contact skills I think speak for themselves, as far as he doesn't strike out under ten percent strikeout rate linelast year almost
a higher walk percentage. He hit two seventy eight even in a struggle time. If you were to project his numbers out, you would essentially be like twelve to fifteen let's just call it twelve fifteen on the year, which would be pretty solid. But I think he's ready to take major steps as more of an aggressive power hitter that's going to hit in the middle of the lineup, and I think there's a decent shot we could have a twenty fifteen season coming up for Wanderfranco. In spring,
He's having a solid spring. He's hitting five hundred, he's got a homer, he's got a stolen base, he's four for eight. You like to see that spring numbers don't necessarily mean anything, but you want to see them walk in and wander. Franco has He has an aggressive hitters approach, not just like I'm trying to make contact and swing across your body and just hit line drives, like he
wants to destroy baseballs. And I think this year he's going to have a better opportunity to destroy baseballs now that he is healthier, and I think he can repeat more of that March April, and his ADP is going to look a lot better. Where I've been focusing the last couple episodes of those back end shortstops. I don't really like, you know, Collett didn't like the N three Swans, and I didn't really either. Tim Anderson has a ton of injury issues, Carlos Korea all that Wanda Franco is
in that area. He kind of ends that tier of shortstops that I would really want, even though it's like, oh, it's fifteen deep, it's not really, it's not really. Wanna Franco is one of those I would want to make a bet on this year, though.
At twenty two years old, I think it's crazy for anybody to even think about the notion of giving up on Wander Franco right now. I mean, I'd be all over him. This is the last time you're getting a discount, too, so I'd be buying him in Dynasty. I'll be buying him keeper leagues, anywhere I could get him. All right, let's move on to shortstop for you, Ariel Cohen, who is grabbing the bat taking a glove for breakouts twenty twenty three.
I usually don't pick players who haven't had much major league experience, and I usually don't pick Rockies because they mishandle rookies and prospects. But Ezekiel Tovar really looks primed. Brendan Rodgers pretty much hurt for the year. They had to even import Mike Lustakas in the infield. So Ezekiel Tovar is going to be the starting shortstop. He's gonna get all the playing time in the world. And projections are not great on CARDI will tell you this all
the time. Usually doesn't excite projections, but ATC is very excited, almost a fifteen to fifteen projection with a two seventy average strike out raid under twenty percent. Very very excited about him. So we're talking about power, speed, and average blend. And here's a little secret about Colorado Rockies for this year. They're actually better than you even think. First of all,
the Rockies manufacture quite a lot of runs. They're the number one most highest run scoring team in all of Major League Baseball last year, so if you want runs at RBIs, that's the place to be. They also don't have a great pitching staff, so they're gonna try and manufacture some runs and steals could be up. But how about the power? Everyone says, well, yep, they play in cores. Well that's the reason to buy him. But well, they
play in a very tough division. Actually, with the balance schedule, they're no longer going ten times to the Dodger Stadium. They're not going to the Giant Stadium. They're not playing the Padres all those times. They're playing teams in the Central and the Al Central. They have a better schedule
in better ballparks. The average ballpark factor for a Rockies hitter has gone up, and it was high to begin with, so secret secret Rockies hitters are even better than you think this year, and Tovar is primed to break out and he's still going at a very manageable cost in drafts this year. So I like the guy. Get him soon though, because since Rogers has been hurt, his ADPA is rising.
You got to buy now.
I hope you're not in a lot of leagues with Standful because this is another one of Frank's guys too, so I hope you guys are separated out.
I'll be drafting it with him in two weeks and tout.
Wars, Oh no, I can't wait to see that battle to the death. All right, let's talk about the outfielders here on your list. Let's run through the three of them here. Jake McCarthy is the first one aerial. This is player. Ironically yesterday was on Collet's bust list. I can't wait now, So take us through McCarthy first, and then your other two outfielders on this list. Let's do them as a as a cluster together.
Yeah, McCarthy, this is a gut. He's gonna steal thirty forty base this year. He had twenty three stone bases in three hundred and twenty one at bats and that's just gonna continue this year. Batting average fantastic two eighty three last year. So he's getting on base. He's gonna bat in the heart of the Diamondbacks lineup, third, second, maybe right right where Corman Carroll is. Christian Walker is gonna have a lot of chances to score runs, a lot of RBIs. I see categories all across the board.
Probably he might even get to ten homers. So he's not a zero in that stat So we're talking about you know, this is like Starling Marte almost and you're getting him not You don't have to pay all that much for him. I bought him yesterday in a couple of days ago in the mixed labor auction for like fourteen bucks, So he's going for a nice discount. You're gonna get a lot of stats out of him. Fantastic by for McCarthy.
All right, who are the other two outfitters you have on your list as well?
Yeah? I have a TJ. Fredell and or I think Fredel TJ. Friedel and Jose Siri TJ. Friedel.
I also think is very very interesting. This is a guy who is hitting first in the lineup in the Reds. They're not a fantastic team, but that ballpark is amazing. So you got a power speed combo. He's batting first. He hit five home runs in September this year. I love to look at guys who in September really went off. That tells me something about the next year. So that's him. He's gonna get the playing time. No one's kicking him
out that spot. And now, Jose Siri, you know Tampa Bay Rays do a lot of platuning, but he might get some extra playing time. And this guy has fifteen twenty ability. So if you're looking for a little spark of his power speed, blend Layton draft. He's going like around three thirty or so. Jose Siri, give you a little bit of extra accounting stats when you need it.
Now, if you're a fan of the show here, you know that Lars new Bar is obviously going to be on Welsh's breakout list for the outfield. But there's another two names on here too, Brian De la Cruz, Riley Green Green. I can't wait to hear you talk about. So let's talk about these three outfielders that you have and why Welsh you think these three are going to break out in twenty three.
Yeah. I mean, we'll just get Lars out of the way. I've done it enough. But really fantastic interview. I want to point out Inenosaurus did on rates and barrels with Lars where he talked about a lot of the vest training he did and barreling like that was the big focus because the year before he had worked so much on his hard hit numbers and we saw that come through. By the way, he had a forty six percent hard hit rate, which was fantastic. He barreled the ball a
really good amount. He had a MAXIV of one thirteen and an average of ninety one point seven on his average exit velocity, and that was the big focus going into last year was just hitting the ball hard. Now, the focus he did in some of his drive line adjustments was taking that hard hit and working on making sure the contact the barreling of it. And I just think that he has taken to every step with huge strides.
His XBA was like twenty plus points higher than his actual batting average would have been closer to around a two to fifty hitter hit fourteen home er in one hundred and eight games ATC's got him at twenty homers, the highest of any projection system. It's actually in line with ZIPS, which we all can laugh about. Is like big crazy numbers twenty with six dolen bases in a
two forty three batting average. And what I would like to point out about that is that is in one hundred and twenty nine games, and that is kind of on an average baseline. I don't think it's out of the question that Large Nubar hits twenty five homers and steals ten bases this year with a decent average. The other two guys, Brian de la Cruz I've called Brian de la Cruz Taoscar Hernandez Light or you know, maybe
more of a Walmart version of Taoscar Hernandez. It's going to be about playing time ultimately with him because he has huge hard hit numbers, huge exit velocity numbers. X wOBA was in the nineteth percentile ninety six percent XBA from this past year. His XBA was actually two eighty seven when he hit two fifty two. And he's in a playing time thing with Jose Hazu Sanchez, which I don't understand. I think if he gets in, it's like I said, it's like a taoscar thing. I think it's
twenty five homers. You're gonna get a handful of stolen bases and pitting where he's hitting in the lineup, he's going to be a massive, massive steal. And Riley Green the thing I've always kind of banked on with him. He's just a great contact hitter. The power has not necessarily worked out what I'm optimistic about, even though I think they raise the walls while bringing them in. He he's been seen as a better power projected player than Spencer Torkolsen. He had two fifty three this past year.
Strikeout numbers were a little bit concerning. I think he's going to be hitting in the middle of that lineup. I think he's got that fifteen plus home run power, and I think he's going to be a little bit more aggressive on the base paths. And if the strikeout numbers come down with the ballpark dimension change, Riley Green set for a good prime and he kind of just
stands out to me. These are all three targets of mine, though I will say Lars, He's probably on eighty percent of my teams right now Brian day La Cruz probably around fifty that I've done, and when I can get Riley Green, probably like twenty five percent. I target these guys in all my drafts, so this is definitely, you know, put your money where your mouth is.
All right, let's get to the pictures here, and one of Welsh's favorite pitcher is actually headlining the list for aerial cones, so that I know you are, well, it's nice to hear someone else talk about ye, it's good. So Jeffrey Springs on this list, David Peterson, who's on my list who I keep talking about all the time, Ariel, which is the Mets pitching staff, has a lot of age in it. This guy performed very well last year. They could use more left handed starting pitching in that
rotation as well. They're starting him down the minor leagues most likely, and I think that's a great opportunity. Another free pitcher that you could just kind of stick on your roster and you know you're gonna probably get like twenty starts out of him at the end of the day. And then you have George Kirby, another one of our favorites here. So let's talk about Springs Peterson and Kirby. Why do you think they're gonna break out this year?
Well, first of all, I disagree that David Peterson is going to start in the minor leagues because Jose Quintana is going to be out for two or three months with the stress fracture. So he's probably gonna make the fifth to fifth spot in the Mets rotation whatever projections are out there right now for eighty innings, said ninety innings up that by about thirty innings or so at least, I think the Mets are gonna get a guy who
is fantastic slider. I mean he had I don't know, maybe the second highest whiff rate on his slider last year of all pitchers in the majors something like that.
Uh, So he was fantastic.
A lot of strikeouts, I mean he struck out one hundred and twenty six batters only one hundred and six innings. We're talking the easy hundred, easy hundred and fifty strikeouts here from this guy. Era under control. Now the walks a little bit of a problem. Uh he has not been great with that. So I'm hoping that that, uh after a nice offseason, gets gets fixed and If you have that, we're talking a very, very exciting pitcher and you're getting him free right now.
Uh, So, you know, fantastic.
Uh As far as the other is Jeffrey Sping's enormous strikeout rate. He's r last year two four to six and one hundred and thirty five innings. The one oh seven whip, you know, the one oh seven whip does to your fantasy uh, your fantasy numbers. It takes him way way down that strikeout rate twenty seven percent last year. It was thirty five percent the year before. He's a converted reliever, of course. Uhjeffrey Springs really prime. I love
it with those relievers turnstart. Remember Chris Sale used to be a reliever, Adam wayIn Wright used to be a reliever. These guys are fantastic so skill skills.
J Santana used to be a reliever.
George Kirby.
I know he's it's only second year, but I think the innings jump is gonna be great. He's gonna get to like one hundred and sixty innings almost And I can't believe when I saw it.
The ATC risk metrics.
Have him as the least riskiest pitcher in all of baseball. So I take his numbers and I just add two dollars two rounds to buying him. His control is impeccable four percent walk rates. This guy is not getting not having guys on base like Bartolo Cologne walks almost and the strikeats are right there. So what are you missing nothing with this guy? Safe safe pick upside of he's a top ten pitcher upside and by the way, he was unlucky last year he had three thirty one babbit
Whatever Whippy had is gonna go down. He's fantastic by very very big breakout guy.
Ario, Can I ask, because I would have I would have definitely did for me, just real quick. What encompasses the risk like the risk management to him? How does how does he become the least risky picture as a second year guy?
Yeah, so, without getting too much into it, ATC looks at what's called parameter risk, which is the certainty that we think the true talent is of the true talent, and that goes from surveying a lot of different projections. Projections are very tight on him. Everyone is projecting the
same way manual guys, automated guys. Everyone is really has the same grasp on him, and that in studying how this is all, when I take a look at the major league player pool, and you see whenever projections are very tight, you see that it actually adds value to a player, Like there's a legitimate two three dollars bump just from being projected in a very tight circle. So that's why I say he's least risky, not that he's
any more health risk than anybody else. He's the same health risk as anybody else, although I think it's lower of course of his very nice delivery.
But in terms of true talent projection.
I think we're more sure of what he is, and if anything, there's a negative skew, like there's one projection system that's very low on him and thinks he's terrible. I know from experience you can just ignore that. You go by the mass of the crowd. So whatever projection, we think, it's higher than you think. I think he's a fantastic yet.
Very cool all right, So Springs, Peterson and Kirby, let's go to your guys. You've got Nick Lodola, Welsh Reeddebtmur's one of my favorite guys, and another player we have yet to talk about. So let's talk about these three. I'm going to tease it, set him up, knock him down.
Yeah, So Nicolodolo, we talked a decent amount about I've been a Nicolodolo over Hunter Green guy, even though I love the big strikeout numbers on Hunter Green and the change to the slider. That everyone made a big deal about the slider with Hunter Green, but we should be making a big deal about the curveball with Nicolodola, which had a forty six percent wifth rate last year, which is just so absurd. He threw it thirty percent of the time, which was essentially the exact same amount of
time he was throwing his fastball. Fastball definitely got hit hard, which is going to be interesting how he runs that mix this year, maybe throwing a little bit more of a sinker which didn't have a big wiffright, But the change up in curveball. He gets the stuff done with a curveball. His teammates love him. Funny anecdotal thing. I don't know if I've said this on here, but Joey Vado was actually asked by someone I know about, Hey, who would you take in fantasy Hunter Green? And the Ladolo,
and he thought about it and he went Lodolo. He would go with Lodolo. The pitch mix I think really stands out for Nick Lodolo. So I'm a little bit worried about the team context and his ability to break out just because of like wins and run support and stuff like that. But I think he's one of the best pitchers and the pitch mix is phenomenal to keep going.
Read.
Debt Mers is kind of in this same boat. He kind of changes arsenal from being like a three pitch pitcher to a four pitch pitcher this past year. He's definitely built on command. He doesn't get hit hard outside of the fastball, which I think is really intriguing. And he's one of the few pitches I've ever seen that have like the five pitches and they're all over a twenty percent whiff rate. I mean, it's really mixed around.
It might not be really one great pitch as far as he just keeps batters on their toes because he's gonna throw a variety of pitches. So I think Debtms isn't a really good spot because actually also had a pretty good spring. I think he's in a really good spot to take that advancement. Also, the tutelage of Otani, I think will be really interesting to see where he goes as he upticked that change up a little bit.
So I like him. And the last one that you mentioned, you know, it actually came from just watching him in spring, and I think I forgot how much I liked him in the minor leagues. It's Hayden Wiznoski, Hayden Hayden Wiznuski. With the Cubs, it's vying for a spot in the rotation. I don't know if he's going to get it, but I was just really impressed with how he was attacking the zone early on here. His fastball is pretty pretty solid.
His slider was actually his number one pitch though this past year through it thirty two percent of the time with a thirty three percent with rate with big spin numbers as well. Throws a four seam, throws a sinker, cutters in there in a change of This is another big pitch, mixed guy with kind of an inter interesting
like alteration of how he throws. And he also just attacks the zone twenty five percent k rate this past year with a five percent walk rate feels little George Kirby ish and if there's a little bit of a bump up in the K numbers, I think if Hayden was Nuski gets an opportunity in the rotation, he might be able to be one of the better Cubs pitchers, especially now that Justin Steele is dealing with some injury stuff. I think was Nowski could be really sneaky.
Yeah, he is going at three point fifty overall. Redebt Merse by the way, in terms of ADP, also very very cheap. He is in the two fifty ish range right now that I'm looking over fantasybros dot com. So you're getting a pretty good discount on a lot of these players, and you take advantage of Actually he's at two fourteen. He's gone up in the last few days. So Debt Merz is starting to rise because a lot of people are talking about him, but with Douski and
other players kind of basically free right now. All right, well, let's wrap things up. Let's close it out with the closer. Who's the breakout closer for twenty twenty three on your roster?
Yeah, my favorite guy to pick on, and he doesn't even have the gig yet, and I think it's dangerous. It's Andrius Munos that is the guy that I want to get as much investment as I possibly can with just a huge, huge fastball, which is the thing that just kind of gets me going. He's healthy. Paul Seawald than him, both kind of vying for not being healthy. Thirteen point two to nine k per nine, just barely to a walk per nine, which I think is phenomenal
for a really big fastball guy like him. He actually had a better x FIP than his Era two four nine era with a two x FIP. And I look at Andris Munos as the quintessidial classic closer. There are so many guys you could depend on at the top end that are not going to break out that middle in I think there's a lot of guys that are in rotational issues, Johan Duran and him. I feel like you got to take a side. You got to take a side on which is the guy you want to
break out. I think Paul Seawald is a solid closer, but I think they could do and they will do, is they'll put him in more of a leverage situation as the veteran guy and let Andres Munio's blow by people because I think that is what he ultimately does best. Andres Munos, I want as much investment as possible with a one hundred average fastball. One hundred and two was his average fastball, and he throws a power slider that is almost at ninety seven miles an hour. So I'll take that.
Every day, you and me both. I'm aggressive on him as well. He's gonna be part of this video. I've got the mustafs of twenty twenty three. Stay tuned for that on our YouTube channel. Subscribe again, Fantasy pros MLB erro Kellen. Who's the closer for the all breakout team for you this year? Yeah?
And by the way, Muno's is on my labor team that I picked this weekend along with Duran and I got ened with Diaz.
I got a lot of saves on my team there. You're doing good. Yeah, absolutely.
The only thing is Muno's I don't know if he's gonna be a leverage guy. She'll get plenty of saves, but is he gonna be full closed or full leverage with I don't know. But this guy that I have I think is the man Alex Lang of the Tigers. Basically by the full the rest of the Tigers actually stick. The bullpen is horrendous, and that's good because it means that he's more guaranteed the job. He had a thirty
one percent strike out rate last year. His only problem is walks, but hey, that didn't prevent Gregory Soto last year from getting the closer's job and running with it for a couple of straight years. I think Tiger's not gonna be a fantastic team, but I think he's being able to pull out twenty twenty five saves, and you're getting him in a much cheaper cost than anybody else who's guaranteed, even less than munyos of Duran or any of those guys.
Towards the end, we're talking pick two thirty or so.
And you know, close saves and closers are hard to get this year because there's just a lot of certain there's only a little bit of certainty at the top, and a lot of shots and a lot of crappy pitchers. Lang has the skills to be a closer, and uh, he's gonna be the saves guy. So I think it's a safer pick, very late, safe, cheap. That sounds like good for an actuary like me, So there you go.
Sounds good, all right. Let's recap Ariel's roster at catcher, Logan Ohappy, the Slapio Hopi, Josh Nayler first, Nick Gordon at second, Alec Bowm at third, Than Tovar at short, McCarthy, Friedel Siri in the outfield, Jeffrey Springs, David Peterson, George Kirby, and Alex Lang to round out the rotation of the bullpen on welshah Side Stevenson the catcher, Jose Miranda at first, cj Abrams a second, Jordan Walker at third, Wander Franco at short, Lars Newt bar and Brian Delacruz along with
Riley Green in the outfield. Then Nic Lodolo, Debt Mers, Waznowski and Andre's munio is rounding it out. So those are names to pay close attention on and get ready to draft them, maybe a little aggressively as well, because some of that we're coming at quiet discount. Go get your guys. Go get some of these guys because the ATC projections are high on them. Go follow our friend as well. Ariel Cohen over on the Twitter machine at ATC and why and also be weary of him in
a fast pitch softball game. The guy's got an absolute cannon, very intimidating. He knocks guys down to the grounds. He's like the It's like the Don Drysdale of softball pitchers. You gotta see the videos of him on Twitter and on Facebook. Also, don't forget to Draft Assistant with SYNC. It's an incredible set of tools that plug right into your drafts wherever you're drafting, help you make all the right decisions, and you can get it at fantasypros dot
com slash Premium. So go MVP, go Hall Fame today, join our discord, subscribe to our YouTube channel. Because Leading Office coming around in just a few weeks. It's an amazing time to be alive. This week, we're also gonna have the All Sleeper team with Steve Gardner, so stick around for that as well. I want to thank the sponsor of today's show, and that's fan Tracks. Head over
to fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Pros. Sign up today for a new league, create a new league, or move your existing leagues over to fan Tracks, the best place to play Fantasy Baseball and you can win a signed Vladimir Guerrero junior jersey only at fantracks dot com slash Fantasy Prose. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for Ario Con. In the Welsh, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time, kids,