Super breakout. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is me, Joey Paid, Joe Pisapia.
That guy over there is the Welsh, and it's you and today it's all about the breakouts. And yes, there's many different definitions of what a breakout is and we're gonna try to give you as many as we can on today's podcast. But before we do, I want to remind everybody make sure that you are getting involved in the giveaway because we've got a new one. It's that Austin Reiley Jersey courtesy of our friends at Pristine Auction dot com. Just head over to Fantasypros dot com slash
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Specifically, we know you subscribe to the regular Fancy Pros and we love you for that. We've got to give the MLB channel some love because every day we've got leading off starting with Welsh and myself and our cast of characters Monday through Friday, baseball right in your face. And that's gonna be out there on that YouTube channel
as well. But like I said, you screenshot your subscription, you go to fantasypros dot com slash MLB contest and you enter, and that Austin Ridley, Jersey could very well be yours.
That's right, it could be yours. Also, I know y'all got drafts coming up.
We're kind of in that last weekend of drafts, so make sure you go check out our MLB draft kit over fantasypros dot com slash kit.
Because it's free. It's awesome, Welsh. I mean, I don't have as many things in life that are free and awesome? Do you know of many? Because I don't.
Let's see this podcast, that kit, Sunshine, that's it.
Those are those are good things. That's that's a good list of things.
Perhaps a slap from somebody if you get out of line, that could be free.
The five fingers say to the safe safe slap. Did meme? Did you see my memes?
I did not see your meme, But it's a well it's a whole nother story to talk about. But a lot of John Lack something else A lot of John Lackey's were for me and I had to do a meme of I did a Chris Rock will Smith meme of someone calls me John Lackey and the Welsh goes slap.
There is a John Lackey quality to the Welsh and this is also why you subscribe to the YouTube channel. But going back to the draft kit, you do have to go to Fancypros dot com slash kit to get it. And I'm telling you're gonna dominate your drafts with the MLB Draft kit that we're offering right now Fantasy Pros. You got the consensus rankings, projections, the salary cap values for all you guys who with salary cap drafts. You got the principle cheat sheets. Also, our sleepers are bus
or draft strategies. All that is together, even the prospects up for the dynasty leagues at Fancypros dot Com slash kit, So go check that out as well. Now, Welsh, I know that you might not have seen John Lackeye this past weekend, but you did run into San Diego padre Ore.
And it was the greatest picture ever. So what was it like you and Blake Snell having a private moment together.
Me and Blake Snell Man we got we would stay in hydrated. We was crazy, He's crazy. Yes, I did get to take a picture and meet the aforementioned Blake Snell, who my and I gotta tell you. Of all the things I've posted, the thing that got the most traction I've ever posted, obviously is my home run call, the Fernando Tatis Junior home run call, because that had its
own life, it was on ESPN and stuff. This though, had the funniest comments, you know, because like easily to hurt my feelings in the Fernando Tatis call when not liking my voice or something. This everybody jumped in on it, and one of the common themes though was everybody asking, does Snell know your impression?
Uh?
No, If he did might have gone a little bit different. Though.
I did kind of get a pseudo threatened by our dear friend Paul spor who is friends with Blake Snell, and he said, he said, I'm gonna share with him your impression.
That was like, oh God, be.
Pleasing, hoping you were doing the impression right to his face and he really didn't even notice.
That was my no, what was going on? Inside my head.
No, you have to.
You have to do total troll mentality. Man, you have to internet tough guy. You have to do your internet thing or your podcast thing. And then in person you gotta go.
Oh, hi, Blake, I'm such a fan. Can I take a picture? That's what you gotta do.
That's the impression of what you do when you do an impression of him. But Scott Bogman did right, So I don't know if you saw this. This dropped today. That picture got so much traction that our dear friend Scott Bogman wrote lyrics because I joked around how it could be an album cover, and we do have an album cover. I saw the album picture. Would you like to hear some of the lyrics or not the lyrics the tracks?
On tracks? You want to hear the track? Okay?
Track?
So track number one is gotta get mine? Uh? Two is mud people.
That's a me thing. Three is not very nice. Can't get out of the six? And he said, out of the six, four is sweating for water, sweating for well, it's so hot out here, man. Number five is traded and faded. Number six is change or not to change up. Number seven is mean spotty facial hair. And number eight is I'm risking my life, risking I think that's the album title. I think that'll be me and Blake's at album title.
Risking my life definitely, And I love that it was spelled with a y.
That was that was the most important, That life was spelled with a why.
You know, the worst part about it is Blake couldn't be a nicer, more funny person as well. He's not like, he's not like Creudgi or anything. He's he's very funny. He's very funny how he interacts with people. Loved to take pictures and stuff, and you know, he didn't know what he was getting into, just this dummy taking a picture with him and then going online and everybody, everybody having a lot of fun with it. A few mean ones out there about Blake getting at the six. I
did it, man, I got mine. We stayed hydrated, we did a thing, and I did not like your tweet by the way. We were like, if we get a thousand, it'll do an impression the entire show. I didn't sign up for that, and that would be a night you didn't.
Well give a thousands, so you're out of that. So if you want to go find that tweet at Joe PCPs seventeen. Again, it's two thousand likes. We could do that, So that's still on the table. Guards are on the table now. Today we're gonna go through the All Breakout Team, which last week we did the All Bus Team. Obviously, you know that went over huge because you know we
do such great work over here at Fantasy Pros. But the Breakout team is a little trickier because you were mentioning before the show, you're sort of limited, right, you don't have a lot of guys. You're typically looking for the young guys, but you don't want to go with all rookies on this kind of team because that's just too easy because.
Not all rookies are the guys that have breakouts.
You have guys who have breakouts sometimes in their third or even fourth season or later in the major leagues.
It's hard to identify them.
We're gonna do our best today, and I gotta say most of the guys in this list are either I would say young or post hype sleepers, or guys that you know, we see that there's still potential and they haven't realized it. I feel like that's kind of what breakout is. Breakout is is a much wider definition. But I feel like we're gonna have a bunch of those different definitions and some of the guys that were going to be picking today.
Yeah, but it is tougher, That's what I was saying to you, Like, I felt like, you know, if you're talking about bus, you really can go to anybody.
But I felt like this.
Pool was just it's a smaller pool to pick from because there's so many guys that you're not going to qualify as your breakouts. So I felt, you know, you had a really good list. Your list was out before mine was, and it took me a little bit to kind of, I think, really identify you know, where the breakouts are going to come from. And I think I even tow the line a little bit of the uh, the identifying of what a breakout really is.
But we'll see what people think.
All right, Well, let's see what people think of the catcher Welsh, who you have as your breakout catcher for twenty twenty two.
Well, I thought you stole the good one. You stole the really really good one. But you know, I think this is the other guy. And again, if you got you look at catchers like how many I don't know about you, but like when you look like how many catchers were there really out there for us to choose from? If you're talking about breakout, there's some older guys that
have kind of like, i'll behind the scenes. Max Stacey was one that I kind of thought about, but I was like, it's not like a breakout, Mitch Garver, that's not a breakout.
So I would had a huge breakout season a couple of years ago exactly. I felt like that was kind of cheating because it already happened. That's the now that's more of a bounce back than.
Had you identified this as maybe like the All value team, I think this could have been a different discussion and it would have been a different set of players and Garver and Stacy probably Stacy, honestly what might have been my pick. But with this one, I'm going over to the Giants and I'm going to go with the guy that's replacing Buster Posey, and I'm going to take Joey Bart.
Now I'm gonna have kind of a theme to a lot of my guys.
I have a lot of these second year kind of underperforming rookies giants. GM just recently said that Bart has looked as bad as good as he's ever looked. He's been working with definitely a big crew of catchers. He's going to go between being able to play catcher or DH because they want to keep his.
Bat in the lineup. Is bat just hasn't been consistent.
But I think one key here, especially for him staying in the lineup is this is, if I know it correctly, it's the first real off season that he has had a full run with all of the starting pitchers, all of the major leaguers and a job that he is walking in with him and that is significant. I think that is significant enough. Even Joey Dell is a guy that didn't have that, and this is like that first year.
Those guys jumping into that space is pretty important. And Joey Bart has been always a pretty decent contact guy. There's big, there's thirty plus power in there.
For sure. He could go the way of actually think he could.
Be very mimic like a Gary Sanchez, where he could have a couple of really good years of high batting average and high homers and then they could fall apart as well. But Joey Bart is free in drafts right now.
He's got a home in multiple spots. The DH is really important to his bat and I think when you're just playing around at the bottom pool of catchers, if you really want to talk about breakouts, Joey Bart is a guy that could potentially move himself up into a catcher one in a twelve probably more like a fifteen man league. You're hitting in Colorado, you're hitting in Arizona, there's some really a good hitter, friendly parks, inner division Wise, I'm gonna take Joey Bart.
I like it.
And the guy that Welsh is alluding to that I took for catchers Tyler Stevenson, who you know last year hit for two eighty six average, had ten home runs. I think the reason why I'm hi on Stevenson this year is I think a better spot in the batting order is going to be there for him. So that is huge, and were always evaluated his talent. I think now that you've gotten rid of Winker and Suarez, there's no way you can't imagine Stevenson if you want to hit him six or five, who knows, maybe some days
you want to hit him two potentially. So basically he was left in that lineup, you got Joey Vada left in that lineup, you got Jonathan India left in that lineup.
Tyler Nake wins around.
I mean, I think that Stevenson is a player that I know catchers don't play every day, but I do believe even with that DH maybe he's going to see a little bit more at bats to get that bat in the lineup. So there's two things going for his favorite I like so much. Besides the nice season he put together last year. The good preferrals from last year we all know of. But what's going from this year is I think a move up the lineup and that DH because if he is swinging the bat pretty well,
you can still get him in the lineup. And I think those DHF bats are going to be crucial because when you have catchers that are going to not just take a day off, but take a day off and still swing the bat, that's big. That really matters a great deal because that's gonna be an extra what you say four times three carry the one, I mean that could be an extra hundred at bats over the season.
And rush a resource has him set at four right now, which is a you know, fantastic part of the lineup to hit. Like you said, the DH allowing him to move spots. He could play first base, you know, if there's any injury.
Stuff with Joey Vada.
Kind of flexible, really smart kid. I actually interviewed him in the Arizona Fall League. He won the I forget the name of it, so apologies, but it's kind of like the the personality, you know, like the guy of the Year in the AFL, not the best performer, but like the best like team leader. Cole Tucker had won it and Tyler Stevenson won it the year after.
He's just in geniality.
Yeah, that's kind of what it is.
And he came out with the Sandra Bullock of the Cincinnati Red Organization totally and he was all like cowboyed up when he came out to its some big old boots on and he was out in the field.
He's just like a really nice guy, good hitter, he is. He's actually best friends with Taylor Tremmell, who's now with the Seattle Mariners, and he's got a big bat and there's big home run potential and he's played some first so a little bit of flexibility I.
Like out of him.
High in the lineup, I like at him. It just got to determine our guys going to be on base. But you do have Jonathan India, who roster resource has his leading off, Tyler Naquin and Joey Vado in front of him.
That's not a bad group.
That might be a sneaky seventy five eighty RBI that come into a guy like Tyler Stevenson. And the thing we have to quantify for all catchers is there's more potential at bats for every single one of these guys. We just don't one hundred percent know who like Will Smith well, but that doesn't.
Guys just sitting clean up every day is far more likely it's gonna be somebody like Stevenson. Because that's what I'm saying, that spot when he's out.
Varshow Will Smith. Will Smith, like I said, not the puncher, the Dodger. He's a guy that's gonna be in the d H spot and then you're gonna get Tyler Stevens. It's not every single catcher, but it's on the table for any catcher with a bat to get more at bats this year, which also might even be a little bit of a separator when we look at like, you know, ooh, Dalton Varshows so much more valuable because he's an outfielder. It's like, well, it's probably gonna be a level playing field.
It's more valuable because of the stolen bases. But I digress. Stevenson and Bart breakout catchers.
All right, who's the first basement on your list? Welsh?
Oh, first baseman? I really liked yours, so this one is I think. No, I mean, I love your guy, but no, I picked extra guy that hasn't done anything, so he's not only gonna break out, he's got a break in. And I'm going with Spencer Torkelsen because I went through the first baseman and I didn't see really any that I would like. I said, I would quantify as like a breakout first baseman. I think there's some great values later on with a whole bunch of guys,
even into the CJ crones and stuff. But Torkelsen, the breakout is simply him breaking through the roster, and I think he will. I think he's got a legit shot. I've said it a gajillion times over. Miggey wants him to play first, even though he was drafted as the third basement. They want him there. He's got multi position eligibility, good defender, and he's got a live bat, and he's kind of free. You know, these rookies, Bobby WIT's not free, He's sure not. He's been moving up into.
The top out after draft. Seat well, Bobby Woit's awesome.
The NFBC some of the drafts, I think the main events, he was going in the top fifty to sixty. So he's not free anymore. Torquosen is still free, and he has got a very good opportunity to break camp. And you know, there's it's tough to say with the rookie in the bumps he's going to go through. He's a little bit susceptible to stuff in the zone. It's kind of been his little, you know, notch that guys have
known on him. Has rubbed since ASU, since he was there, and he's been working on that lower half, especially on breaking pitches, and that.
Could be a little bit of a problem.
I've also seen him get really really heavy kind of singles hittory, like not lofting the ball the whole bunch, which could maybe have shades of like first year Vladimir Guerrero, but it doesn't matter.
He's free.
So I'm going to take as a first baseman as my my all breakout team, I'll go with Spencer Torkelsen.
Yeah, it's a good one. It's a good one.
I mean, I know it's sort of trendy rookie, but it doesn't mean it can't come to fruition for me.
It's a guy that got tasted in.
The big leagues last year and he was okay, Alex Kiroloff. Not everybody comes up and just absolutely mashes from the get go. But if you look at the track record historically of Alex Kierloff, you go back at two hundred and eighty one minor league games, the guy hit three eighteen with a three sixty six obp, a five to zero three, slugging an eight sixty nine ops. This is a guy who can get on base. He's gonna make contact, he's got some pop. I think he's gonna grow a
little bit more power as time goes by. You have to go back a couple of years to see like a bigger power season that combination. But he's only twenty four years old, so there's still you know some growth potential there.
But Kira Lof qualifies at first.
He qualifies an outfield, so it gives you a position for flexibility. And I feel like he's a player people have kind of forgotten about, and that's perfect because he is going to be a nice player.
I'm looking like.
Player profile wise, could he be an all star level nice player? Probably at some point he could get there, but the very least right now, when you're looking at ADP and you're looking at the opportunity for guys like kiralof Uh, to me, it's a no brainer, especially if you're looking in those leagues where you're playing in those corner infielders.
You're looking for a guy who might have some upside.
Still, to me, it's kiral Off and right now he is going at one eighty five overall. He's the twenty fifth first basement off the board. So I'm a Kira Loff guy. Why are you a Kira lov guy? Wa?
I love think is another guy I got to actually speak to some years ago on my show Prospect One. His dad is a pretty prolific hitting coach. He's got to think like a whole hitting series that he does, and he trains kids to Lemanski.
That is that nod.
I think it's an actual career off.
It's an actual well you don't I remember like the videos that like late at night videos where.
It's like do you want to learn exactly?
Yeah?
Didn't Billy Ripkin also have Doesn't he still have like a hitting series?
Yeah, but he's got banned because they had bad language in it.
Yeah.
Well, at the bottom of the bat and a rookie card. Uh No, kiraal Off really really smart hitter that's always been. That's kind of a thing I really attached myself to with a lot of prospects.
Is this a guy?
Is this a high contact type of hitter? And that's who Kilof has always been? You said, he's been three hundred plus throughout his minor league career. His first step into the majors hits two fifty. He kind of was working. He's been working over the last couple of years. He's said, little Nixon injuries. He had a wrist injury that left him coming out of the AFL in twenty nineteen. So getting like real distinct at bats has been important for him.
He's a groove guy. He's got a beautiful swing.
He does get loft into his swing, and I don't think two fifty is indicative of who he is. I truly, truly believe that Alex Kiloff is a two eighty to three hundred type of hitter consistently, and I would actually like in him maybe to a little bit more like a Goldie as far as a hitter, he's going to be that with that type of contact, he's going to step into power. I don't think he's going to steal a whole lot. And athleticism is a little bit in question.
So first base I think is his ultimate home. But I believe in him as a hitter. And this is a guy that just doesn't have enough Major league at bats to prove anything. So if I were keeping with my trend of some of the guys I'm trying to go with, this is a prime candidate of the You know, all of those high end rookies over the last year and a half that have been coming up and not
been producing. You know, you had COVID, you had weird training regimens, you had all of the restrictions that were out there, and then also these guys take a little bit sometimes And kier Lof is a prime example of that, and I love that pick.
Yeah, Honestly, had COVID not happened, there might be a chance he might be further along already. So I think that twenty twenty death he said a lot of guys like him who will right on that precipice that year in development.
It set them back a whole season. For me.
Also, in twenty nineteen in the Arizona Fall League, I got to speak with Royce Lewis, and when I was interviewing him, I kind of asked like, Hey, where is Alex you know? And he had hurt his wrist earlier that year and it was leading up and he got right back in time for the minor league playoffs, and he just didn't want to come, like he wasn't ready yet.
And then you had COVID, and then you had the two thousand and one season all stapped on top of it, and it pushed guys like Royce Lewis got pushed back as well. Royce lost the entire last year with injury. So both of those guys, had you not had the COVID here probably would have been big impacts. In twenty twenty one, Carrelf was a little bit this will be the adjustment period for Alex Kerlof, and then this will probably be the actual run for Royce Lewis this year.
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Let's move across the diamond to second base.
Now, who is the second baseman that make sure all breakout team Welsh.
So this is one of probably like two players that might push the limits of this trend that I'm going with. But I'm going with Josh Rojas with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Josh Rojas, who by the way, has forty nine games played last year at second base. He had I think like eleven or twelve or something at shortstop and outfield. So pinning the league or the format site that you play on, he might have two to three different position eligibilities.
For him, which is really nice.
Josh Rojas looks like he's going to lead off for the Arizona Diamondbacks this year, something that it's not the biggest deal in the world. The Diambacks just resigned katetel Marte, which they look like they're in a really bad spot for what they're doing and how much money they don't want to spend. But they just resign kateel Marte to
keep him for five more years. Really says something to me about a guy like him not going this year, and then, oh my god, who is going to hit Josh Rojas in who is going to be there?
Is it going to be Peven Smith, Christian Walker and Rojas?
No, Katl's going to stay and he's going to be here for a while and maybe they'll be more aggressive. And how does that relate to Rojas? Well, these are the guys are going to be hitting behind him. He leads off for the Diamondbacks, which is huge, more at bats. This is a double digit steals and homer. Guy hit a homer just the other day in spring training.
Crush.
I'm trying to remember who it was off of. I want to say Granky or something. He just absolutely crushed it. This is a fifteen to fifteen guy who's going to lead off for the Diamondbacks. Probably eighty plus runs is not a very good team. But I think this is the opportunity where I think most site projections have him around like eleven or twelve homers, eleven or twelve stolen bases that he could push twenty twenty.
Because he's going to push.
At bass to twenty twenty twelve.
You think the power is there.
I think.
I mean, if I were like putting money on it, I would go more fifteen to twenty. But the problem is or The positive is he's going to get so many more at bats than the rest of these Diamondbacks, assuming they can actually turn the lineup over more opportunities. As long as he doesn't struggle is great. Plus he's roster flexible where he can move around. There's not a lot of reason to take him out of the lineup
because he can play outfield, shortstop, second base. How many guys do you have like that that I think you know you're gonna push high into the six hundreds of it bats that might get him a couple more homers, So fifteen plus if I were breaking out, but maybe twenty stolen bases.
Lavello is bad about stealing bases.
His job is on the line, and the Diamondbacks have got to manufacture runs. And that's what I like about Rojas. The stolen bases might be extra sneaky. So I'm gonna pick him for my second base breakout.
All right, for my second base breakout, It's Brendan Rodgers. Let's go, baby, I'm excited. Colorado bats always make me happy. And last year, I mean, if you're looking at what he did last year too, eighty four, three, twenty eight, four, seventy slash. Okay, I'll take that for a guy who's twenty four years old. Again, it's funny say Mage's kill off.
Right.
So a lot of my breakout guys are kind of, you know, a little past the prospect age of you know, maybe a little bit of ballooms off the rows. But once upon a time, Brendan Rodgers was this guy that everybody was basically falling over themselves to draft. If you look at his minor league track record. I know some favorable ballparks there too, but the minor leagues for him, this is a guy at two ninety eight, three fifty four,
five oh four. You always saw the power there a career eight fifty eight ops there in the minor league. So to me, that's gonna track. He's gonna get a fair amount of playing time. The Rommel Tapia trade really opens up time for Connor Joe now. So I feel like Brendan Rodgers this is his job now, I feel like and we had one hundred and.
Two games last year he performed pretty well.
You're always gonna worry a little bit about guys outside of Colorado. I get that, But at the same time, when you're looking at value and you're looking at potential that you're gonna look. He's going after guys like Labor Torres is going after guys like cronin Worth. He's going all the way down at second basement number twenty one. He's won seventy five overall. That is really cheap. So for me, Brent Rodgers is this guy that I think is gonna hit for a decent average, probably gonna approach
twenty bombs. That's pretty good at second base because there's not a lot of guys at second base have to get past that first grouping. I feel like Polanco's that cutoff, and then after that it's a little dicey from like ten to twenty, and then there's guys I like after that in one of them is definitely Brendan Rodgers. So let's move over to the third base side, the hot corner. Who's man in the hot corner on the all breakout team for the Welsh.
I am going with Alec Bohm.
This is one of those guys I've talked about a couple of times where it's like there's just not enough career at bats. I think he's got just under six hundred career plate appearances, it's spread out from twenty twenty and it feels like he's got a lot more. But this guy has like one legit season under his belt spread across these last two years. He's turned in twenty five.
He's always been He's a field guy. That's the thing that when I spoke with him, like he wasn't into like a lot of analytics, and he wasn't into launching. He was a field guy with pure raw power, so he knew when he made contact the ball was going to travel. Now, since that time, he's made it to the majors. He's gotten to work with Bryce Harper, who took him under his wing.
I think he's felt some serious struggles. His strikeout rate.
I think was kind of one of the highest that he's dealt with. It was a twenty six almost twenty seven percent last year, and he's usually sat. I think he's at a career twenty four percent. That might actually only be doing the majors. I mean in the miners, he really never had outside of like ten plate appearances, he never had a season over twenty strikeout person. So I mean he's striking out a little bit more. He's pressing as he's learning who he is as a hitter.
This is prime time for him to learn who he is as a hitter. And there's a lot of good boppers in there. They bring in like Castianos and Schwarber as well.
And these are just in that lineup now, so much less pressure. There's so much pressure on that kid.
I felt like and.
Also and also think about the possibility of like I'd have to look where he is in the lineup. I'm assuming he's gonna hit like six or seven, but the guys that are gonna be in front of him are most likely going to be the Schwarbers, the Castianos and the Harpers. There might be really great there might be really great RBI opportunities. And for a guy that is more hit than he is power, he's like an anti Schwarber, Like Schwarber is just a gripe and rip it type.
Of guy that's not Boem.
So I to lean a little bit hopefully you know, he's embraced analytics a little bit more. And you know, having a guy like Harper and your Bilt is fantastic. And there's a lot of other good power hitters that you know, maybe can rub off on different ways to attack the ball that this seems like the prime yere you talk about it. This is the post hype sleeper. A lot of these guys are these. Alex Kureloff prime example, post hype sleeper. Everybody loved him, came up, he was all right.
Rogers went extent like everybody.
Rodgers is post post post hype sleeper.
But he's only twenty four. I mean, I'm not in a break and he's in Colorado.
I mean, if he plays one hundred and forty games this year, there's no way he's not going to.
Give you productivity. I mean, it's just it's just crazy. But I love to make about bowlm in that lineup too.
Now.
I think it's a very different feel for him coming into the twenty twenty two season, which really matters.
Yeah, and you know, like I said, full season of the bat's post hype sleeper. These are these are a lot of Rogers is Like, let me look here at the guys that we've talked about, because I'm forgetting Rogers is probably Stevenson and Rodgers maybe the most expensive guys that we've talked about. Most of these players are like post hundred for the most point, like maybe post one seventy five. These are in the free range of players.
Especially Boom is a guy that I've done plenty of drafts where he doesn't go, so you can get him as a corner infielder. Maybe you want to put him on the watch just watch out because like I said, this is a more feel hitter than he is a you know, struggling big power hitter who's not finding his way. Like him hitting two twenty doesn't really make sense unless he's gone as a prospect. Him hitting two seventy with a bunch of doubles and maybe lower on homers, that
is a more plausible range. But those are good possibilities. Maybe high RBIs just watch out for Alec Bohm.
All right, watch out for Gabrian Hayes. That's my third basement and my breakout guy. We often talk about the guys who show up in the camp in the best shape of their life. Well, Hayes actually in pretty good shape, Like, he looks pretty good, he looks like he is ready to have a healthy season.
So hoping for the best there.
It was kind of a disappointment because it kind of started off quick if we recall last April, and then he got hurt right away and it was just basically chasing, chasing.
Waterfalls after that, Poor Brian Hayes. I love that.
By the way, later that tweet they put out, I think it was like the Pirates or something, or I don't remember who did it.
They did everything but say he's in the best shape of his life.
They just they danced around the idea he was just jacked and he's out there and they're like, Brian Hayes physically looks amazing and they're all talented.
Just say best shape of his life. Just say it.
But I mean, when you're a career four hundred slugging percentage guy and you play a corner spot, you better be like Matt Chapman glove, you know, like that.
You've got to be that level.
So I think, you know, he realizes it, like I've got to hit for more power. So if you're gonna bulk up a little bit in the off season and come in there ready to go hit some more home runs, you can get up to that twenty mark. Once again, I think he's more of a corner guy than it is a starting third basement lest in a very deep lead. But when you have to start taking shots of guys because third base isn't great this year, you end up in that mix of the Ty France, Joha Mancatta, Gabrian Hayes, Right,
Brian Hayes at won sixty nine. I think I'd rather have Cabrian Hayes at this point at the cheaper ADPs eighteenth third basement off the board, and then you go after a little bit too what's.
That and Hayes can run a little bit too exactly?
He might be a sneaky source of Yeah, like how many guys at third base? Are you really going to get significant soolen bases for? Obviously Jose Ramirez I think really late a guy like John VR might be kind of sneaky now that he's with the Cubs and he.
Qualifies a third.
But Hayes is one of those guys where you know, it's interesting what you said too. You've seen a lot of teams do this opposite where you have these power guys, they want to move to these other positions that aren't necessarily prime, like Andrew Vaughn when I told you he did some workout at second and stuff like that where.
You moved to the last year.
Yeah, they don't necessarily They want power everywhere. So Hayes has obviously got to embrace that, and he is. He's a pure raw power guy. He just has not tapped into it.
But this is a young kid.
He gives the contact kid in the miners who has not tapped into it.
If he plays a full season and he gives me like eighteen home runs and eight stolen bases or something like that and hits two sixty five or two seventy, I'll take that.
I'll take that the eighty. I think that's a decent return on event.
Let me ask you something.
There's a chance you could even have more if how he is indeed tapping into that power ceiling.
What's the question?
Have you looked at any of the projections on him.
That we're looking at him?
That that was kind of close to that. What does ATC have? Man?
Why? Well, I wanted to ask you.
I wanted you to take a guess at projection, like pick a system and then you guess.
I mean, let's do let's do Ariel because he's our Franks.
Okay, well, we'll do Aril.
I would think it would be fifteen home runs or fourteen home runs something like that.
Probably it might right, you.
Absolutely nailed it.
Fifteen Homersteen runs six in one hundred and forty one games.
Two sixty five batting average, give or take.
I mean, are you looking at it?
Two second?
Now?
Look?
Two seconds is two sixty five? All right, Now, let's do runs.
That's the tricky one of the seventy two.
Oh my god, I was about to say, what numbers for the power of all tonight? Uh, seventy seven, seventy sixty Why I just ruined it?
Sixty three RBA.
How many stolen bases do you think ATC hasn't projected.
At I'm gonna stick with my eight because that was my number.
Anyway, I think that's a good twelve. Okay, that great.
So fifteen and twelve with the two sixty five batting average, that's not really build I don't think ATC, in order to any projection systems really build in the upside of these guys like finding their way in their sophomore years. So I just want to say, a projection system which has got to model the median line, and this is an aggregate system, has ATC is the highest in stolen bases and highest in homers this So think that's the middle.
So if you believe that kee Brian Hayes is going to make the proper adjustments this year, you believe in him as an athlete. Could you be twenty fifteen on a third baseman hitting two seventy five and go seventy five to seventy five. Guess what if you do that's top one hundred value and you're getting them near the two hundreds. It's risky because you're betting on a rookie
or you know, a sophomore young player. But the idea of the breakouts is this, and this is why he's like a fun corner infielder to get.
Yeah, still very cheap.
That's we're all about now, shortstop. I mean, this is probably the easiest one for both of us. I'm sure you had I'm sure you knew exactly who you were going to say, and I knew exactly who I was gonna say.
So no spoilers. If you listened to the show, you know who Welsh is, So go ahead talk about Amed Rosario.
Yeah, Ahmedrosario.
I mean I went through I tried to find like other guys, but again, going with the breakouts, it's I don't know, there's rookies I think about, but that's not really the break up. I go with the mid Rosario. He kind of broke out last year. We did do the show where we were talking about, you know, who is the next Cedric Mullins, and I picked him what was it six most hits from July to September, power speed,
combo hitting at the top of the lineup. He's really kind of found himself as a power hitter, which he was never in in the minors. I think fifteen to twenty is the mac. So I don't think he can truly be Cedric Mullins, but I believe he can steal more than fifteen stolen bases.
Oh and I think he can hit.
He's done. He's done it twice.
Yeah, yeah, and in twenty four and year's with the Mets. Speed's not the problem for Azario. The problem with Ario was always the glove and the range at shortstop. That to me, there was always a problem. And also I found, you know, watching him as much as I did over the years, he didn't hit good pitching, Like you know, he could go out there and the quality guys or the relievers he'd beat up on.
But if he gave him any good pitching, he was toast.
Now again, I didn't watch a lot of com at Rosario at bats last year on full disclosure. But if he can make that adjustment here, you know, a little later in his career, that's going to help him certainly kind of maybe reach that potential you're talking about.
Yeah, and he's like a twenty to the twenty strikeout marker. He walked more this past year than he ever did before, and projections are not favorable. Even though you say, you know, he did steal twenty four bases in twenty eighteen. He's failed to get twenty any other year. But even ATC has him at fourteen stolen bases but almost a two to eighty batting average, hitting near the top of the lineup. It's not a great lineup, but again, this is going
to be an aggressive team. I think twenty stolen bases is pretty easy in line. You could be in that fifteen homer marker. I know, I feel like I've mentioned multiple guys in this same place, but this is the marker that I have on him. I'm not afraid to go into battle with Josh Rojas and I'm me and Rosario on my team. Preferably middle and corner. But those are guys that are this cheap stolen base. They qualify
multiple positions. And if Rosario does, let's say, push that twenty, like, let's see, he'll eeds to be I think a twenty stolen base guy. Even though projections at fourteen. I think if he pushes the twenty twenty, you're talking about Rosario maybe being inside the top fifty this coming year. So he's just a guy that I want to jump all over, get all the stuff and even the runs. You know, if we can push eighty plus runs, he's a pretty easy breakout candidate.
I think you know what I was just thinking, Welsh, all those people who spend all those hours and weeks and months working these projection systems. All you need is Joe p's a pee his brain. Really, I could just spout out the numbers. Apparently it's the same stuff.
Apparently, Nic I mean, if you had gotten one more, I'm telling you had gotten one more, I say, all right, I'll call you in twenty minutes.
We're gonna go over.
I'm gonna go to the store, we're gonna play some Arizona power Ball, and you're gonna pick my numbers for me.
But I mean, you know, projection systems are all trying to give you the best I think, the most accurate, best ish case scenario, and they're all based in something that the guy has just done previously for the most part, with some sort of mild rehash. So the mild the mild look ahead after the rehash is a little bit of growth. So if you just kind of take what you saw last year and put a little growth, that's kind of what it it would be.
You know, it's tough.
It's tough because, like you can predict some things. Whatever a picture's x FIP was the year before, that will be the projected era most likely for a picture.
If you look over.
Three years, and if you can mentally do math quick and you look over a three year marker, you can probably find the averages pretty quick.
If you know it's thirty.
And twenty and twenty five, guess you're probably going to have twenty five.
Well, that's what a lot of projection systems go off. I mean, you're probably gonna find the average twenty five.
Because your coverage gives you a really strong sample size of the identity of a player over a period of time.
Where they're differing themselves a little bit. Is like CARDI with the bat X is there's lot more ballpark factors that are being involved in it, which I think open it up. And ATC specifically is really unique because it's
an aggregate of everything. So if you don't like I think there's some people that love Steamer, there's some that you know, love the bat or the bat X and if you don't want to play that game, ATC just gets them all and finds you a good media and value and that's why, you know, to Ariol's credit, Ariol ariols ATC is three time Fantasy Pro most Accurate projection system.
And not only that, I was gonna say, now, I was gonna pop them.
Not only did you win last year at the most accurate, but guess who was number two the Fantasy Pro system?
How about them appen? Oh that's right, not bad.
I didn't know that. I didn't know that.
Yeah, that's right, number two.
You know, let's go.
You can't give yourself awards though, and he's got to slap yourself in the face.
I mean you can you could also like, yeah, we could also put us in the you know, running to win those autograph jerseys too. I mean, we can do things if you want.
I mean, technically I could unsubscribe to the channel and resubscribe and try to win the Austin Riley jersey, but you know that seems like a lot of work at this point for me. I want to talk to you about Willie Adams. That's my sh shortstop of choice.
Last year.
You know, he's been complaining for years about the batter's eye in Tropicana Field, and it showed. He had a buck ninety seven over forty games last year there.
He was just dreadful. He was terrible.
They deal him to Milwaukee, and what a difference the move makes. He then goes on over the last ninety nine games of the season to hit two eighty five with a three sixty six OBP and a five to twenty one slugging and eight eighty six ops. Just getting the heck out of Tampa is all he needed. He hit twenty bombs there, so twenty five on the year, but twenty of them in those ninety nine games for Milwaukee, and I just think this is a guy that's got a whole new lease on life.
I also like the fact that they've got had a renfro there.
I also like the fact that you know, if you do believe that you can get Christian Yellish to bounce back in this lineup, this lineup might be better than people realize. If Yelwich bounces back, he is kind of the lynchpin for me. I wish they had done maybe one more thing to give them a little bit more of a cushion.
But William Doms.
To me is that guy that I'm all over this year. I love draft in him at shortstop. I think he can give you power. I think when you everybody talked about deep shorts up it's so deep.
It's so deep it is, but you.
Could also wait on it and if you choose to, then you can get him at one thirty six overall, and he's the twenty shorts up off the board.
He's one of those guys. He kills me too. Man, He's one of those guys I was so big on when he was a Ray and he never clicked, and then I just.
Want playing in the minor leagues, and you're like, this guy's got and let him go.
Got it.
He's got that thing, but he just couldn't see the baseball. I mean literally, you look at the splits and it's there. It's just so obviously how bad he was in that ballpark. And I think when you have any major league talent, I think it's are so ware on them mentally where it's like, oh, why can't I do this? And then they press and then they have the pressure of who's the next kid coming behind me?
Oh, it's this Wander Franco guy. He's unbelievable.
And well that's also for him.
Just need the change of salary. And people say, well, he broke out already. Ninety nine games isn't enough for me. I want a full season breakout. That's what I'm looking for here. We're really I think he can go from twenty wels. Honestly, I think he could be a thirty home run guy, and that to me is breakout.
Yeah, And that's why you know they talk about change the scenery. Sometimes it is necessary. It just kills me. He's one of those guys we all have it where you're in, you're in, you're in, then it doesn't work, then it doesn't work again. Like I think like two year three, three years ago, I had him as like a breakout and then it was like, all right, we're just not happening, and the change of scenery was everything for him. And people also forget Willie Damas was the
core piece in the David Price trade. The David Price trade between the Rays and the Detroit Tigers. It was like four guys. Everyone got up in arms about it. But Adama's at that time was like low a and he was the lynchpin to that move. So he's a rock star and he's one of those reasons why you can wait.
Some of those guys you love.
And they never figured out who's that angel's third base? But was that Brandon Wood?
Was that Dallas McPherson, Brandon Wood? Both of them? Brewood was the big one. Yeah uh.
And Gordon Beckham remember him too. It was another guy white socks, trying to wait for him to break out and it just never happened. Some guys never happens. It happened last year. You saw the beginning of it, and now it's for the full season version.
All right, remember, let's do it, hold on, Let's do a whole show one time where we just go remember that, like remember dustin act.
Member berries are going to be tangents like this all the time, it will do a random player of the day.
Maybe we could do that.
Remember, yeah, it'll just be called yeah.
Yeah, members only, that's what we got.
I like that. I like it, all right, sorry, all right?
It was the outfielder. Oh I made your team here for the all breakout list.
Well, you went with the most obvious one that I agree with, So I'm going with the secondary one.
And I'm not even so sure.
I don't I don't know how people feel about him, and I'm not sure I would go like out on a huge limb for it. But it's the same theme, and I'm picking Jared Kelnick. And here's one of those reasons as well. Let's go back to what we were talking about a little bit earlier in the show, and I was mentioning with Joey Bart. Kelnick is in the exact same situation where, uniquely this offseason, he is in a position where he has this back run of major
like real major league you know experience. He has failing, like really big failing under his back, and he has a little bit of a run on the back end of the year where he started to connect a little bit. So then come this spring training, what's happening he is being treated as the guy with the job. He hasn't always had that, you know, send him down to the miners. He's working. I've been over to the marine facility four or five times. Every time. He is attached at the
hip with usually Mitch Haniger and now Jesse Winker. I see those guys working every single day. He's one of the last guys out on the field. It's bp heading practice. He looks locked in, you know. I think for a guy like Jared Kilnick, who has always succeeded, he's always kind of been the guy. He was one of the most prolific contact hitters coming out of high school.
He was a face of a trade.
He was a face of an organization, him and Julio where you know, this team didn't have superstars and weren't winners.
That's a lot of pressure. I don't mean to keep doing this.
But another guy I talked to in nineteen in the foll League, he told me his goal in twenty twenty was to make the major leagues. And he also he thinks of stats like he had a goal of being a twenty twenty guy in that twenty nineteen season, and he said that was a goal that I hit, and he wants to hit the majors, So you know he's re established new goals. But he has the one thing, like I said, I don't think he really had under
him was failing. And you know, there's a lot of really really good hitters there that he gets to bounce off of. Now you've got obviously Mitch in the breakoup, but you guys got you got like Jesse Winker, I think is a really important one for him to kind of be able to rub off on. And he's being given the opportunity to have that job, and I think it's all prime stuff. We're taking very short sample sizes on why we don't like Jared Kelnick, why he doesn't
work Indy of the day. He is a significant five tool player, he has been in the minors and it just might be taking a little bit of time here. So I'm going to take my all breakout Jared Kelnick.
Any concern that Rodriguez just blows.
Right by him, I think that can happen, but I don't think it's at the expense of his job.
Kyle lewis prepared actually hurt.
He's hurt again. He's not doing anything on the camps. He's just like kind of like walking around and he's not out there. Taylor Trammel, I think they see him as a four out fourth outfielder.
I could be incorrect about that.
Julio is starting almost every day and he's starting in center, but I don't think that's Kelnick's job. I think it is Winker and left, kel Nick and right, and Julio in center. And you got Mitch Hannager at diggate. So what's the problem here. Taylor Tremil is the only other guy, and Kyle Lewis who is always hurt.
In missing time that I think.
I think Julio Rodriguez, I've thought this for a long time, is the better dynasty option, even when Kelnick was.
Close Shrew, Oh no, you always were that, You always right three years.
Yeah, And Julio is the bigger personality, he's the bigger star. He's going to get more attention, which could be good or bad for Jared Kelnick. But if Kelnick focuses on the game, he's not going to be overpassed for Julio Rodriguez unless he starts hitting a buck fifteen again.
I'll make the bet that it's going to turn and if it does.
Watch out because this could he could be Robert, Like that's the type of guy that he is.
Her.
Yeah, he hits.
He hits, a big, big homers, huge barrel contact type of guy. But he completely fell apart the last two years. So I will go with Jared Kellent. I think Kelln is like like twenty two years old, still twenty three years old.
He's still very young. He's still very young.
You were always a Julio guy over Keller Nick and all those arguments back in the day.
So twenty two, thank you, just a.
Toy maybe toy boy. He could be our he could be our child. We could be like kind of like young parents.
That's more of an indictment on us.
Yeah, but now now we're young parents, and now we're out there enjoying life. See that's the thing if you are a young parent, like my buddy, he had his kids when he was on the younger side, and now they're in college or you know, just getting to college, and now he's like out of this free time and he's still like young enough to enjoy it.
So we're like a little bit older, Like I had my first kid at like twenty eight or something.
Like or no, obviously he was like twenty nine or something.
Yeah, eh, what again. Anyway, Joe Adell's still let's talk about let's.
Talk about him. He is just twenty two years old, so to be twenty three. I know last year was not great for jo Adell at the major league level. It was kind of a disappointment. But the minor league track record is there.
I believe in it.
An eight ninety three career OPS over two hundred and ninety seven games, a career two ninety six hitter in the minor leagues. He's got power, he's got speed. He's crushing the ball.
On a spring under him right now.
Three home runs already, three steals, hitting two seventy three. The ops is ten ninety three right now for him. So look, jo Adell, it's all about playing time. And I know marsh is a nice player too, so it's whether or not he can crack over the three.
Hundred at that plateau.
If he does, I think he's gonna have a breakout season, and I think he's gonna force their hand. I really do Welsh, I mean, Justin Upton's old and hurt all the time, just like us, So I think that you're gonna see jo Adell get an opportunity, and if he plays the way he's playing right now and carries this over, there's a good chance that he does go over that three hundred and or three hundred three fifty plate appearances. And when you get that in the app bats area, then this guy's the limit.
Then he could really have a huge breakout.
But I think, yeah, this people just get too sour too fast on guys with talent. It's just it's crazy. Not everybody's Wander Franco or Juan Soto.
This is the exact same celnic thing.
And I hate to I don't want to be like, oh, listen to me, and I've been, but Jodell is somebody for about two years, even through all the struggles, I said, I'm just not done with Jodell.
I'm not.
He is a freak athlete.
He really is a big problem. He had those when he came up. Nobody looked more fooled by any pitching than him. And you realize, like, oh, man, this is a freak athlete who was taking advantage of maybe not advanced pitching that he was going through the minor league for whatever reason.
It was well That's how I.
Talked about Buxton.
He was always a much better athlete than a baseball player, and he had to kind of get that over time. He was just he was a freakishly good athlete, and then over time he had to kind of become a baseball player. There's been plenty of guys that have had success and then some guys that never happened.
For But it doesn't really smart too. He's like a really he's like really in tune to like who he is and he was. This is one more anecdotal thing. So this is like name droppy all day long. But yes, I did interview Jodell as well on prospect.
We just got to get like a think like a broom to Welsh interviewed.
But see, here's the problem.
Though I've been doing this for quite a while, we're now in the place where I've gotten my hands on so many minor leaguers that all the major leaguers arazing. But now we're at the point where I've gotten through multiple years that all these guys are major leaguers. So I have all this reference point. It's just gonna happen. But Adele was the one guy everybody ever everybody always.
Tiptoes around answers. You know.
Oh you know, I've asked like, what type of hitter are you?
And how do you change as a hitter? Blah blah blah.
All the guys that kind of give that same answer be like, well, you know, kind of a gap to gap hitter, and I'm not really trying to hit for power. It's like a cookie. Jodelle is the only guy that didn't give me that. He's just like, no, I know when to turn on a ball. I'm absolutely trying to hit a home And that's probably.
A little bit of his mistake, by the way, maybe.
But he was the only one that was really honest about how he would approach different at bats and how he could hit for power. I'm definitely into it. The spring looks like a big connection. He had a little bit of a thing with some people that I knew about that feared he couldn't hit anything above like ninety three up in the zone because he was so looking for offspeed trying to be able to adjust off speed breaking stuff that he was beaten like crazy. And that
doesn't seem to be the case now. But let me ask you this. Two things Jodell. Let's play the Jodell projection game again, and I got one more for you. Let's go to ATC. What do you think the Jodell production projectionsone.
I'm gonna ask you first for how many at bats is he getting?
Okay, you got it, he is getting.
That's the gauge. If I don't know the at bats, I can't even come close to these.
One hundred and da da da. Let's see, this is one hundred and twenty two games, five hundred and twenty five played appearances. I'm sorry, five oh three played appearances, one hundred and twenty six games, twenty six on ATC.
That's pretty good. So what do you want? You want stolen bases?
Let's start with homers.
Uh wow, I thought he's gonna give him eighteen.
You are very very close nineteen homers. The bat X projects him at eighteen, so that's very good. How about runs?
Uh sixty five, almost sixty?
How many RBI?
Okay, fifty seven?
Oh see, you you.
Would have the last one. Sixty five is the RBI batting average?
Batting average? Give me a let's go to sixty. That's my overunder on it.
Two forty one. Yeah, and stolen bases.
Nine seven. So check this out. Let's come back to that same thing we did before. These are baseline. This is the baseline for a rookie the doesn't have a long projection struggle. Yeah Jodell nineteen or yeah nineteen homers seven at two forty essentially sixty and sixty if we round up, think of upside here. What if Jodell does hit two sixty twenty five homers, maybe he steals a little bit more. So here's the other thing I asked you, And this might be a really great, good poll question.
I mean, everybody that twenty eight overall right now too, by the way, getting potentially there.
So this might be a poll question. Is which breakout outfielder do you want? Jared Kalnick, who costs a top one twenty five overall pick or Joeydell, who costs a two twenty and well, which breakout any one?
I'll we should definitely put that pole out. But I think the fallacy hero iguins the trap is that thinking that kalen Nick's at bats are completely locked in and Adele's aren't. That at the end of the day, it might be the inverse, like Adele might find his way into it and Calenick could play his way out of it potentially.
Again, see that's a putt.
I think they're both in so I would even be comfortable take away their possibility.
And I think that's what you see the variance in their ADP so much.
But maybe that's why also you take ADP out of the equation and you just go, who is the better breakout star for this year? Because here's the other caveat Adele is breaking out spring. He is a hot hot bat in spring, where kel Nick is really not done a whole lot. So I think he's out of people's minds right now. So who is the better breakout outfield star to you know, for you to take a shot on. Is it Jared Keelnick or is it jo Adell? I mean, what should you pick? You had Jodell on him.
I'm gonna take Joydell.
I want the cheaper one because I still know what the Kellenick Rangers guys that can really I know are going to contribute still on a certain level, Kellenick still a little bit of an unknown.
I think I would pick Joeydell right now too, based on that exact same thing. Guys like alex fordual, I'm not.
Getting ten by the spring.
I've seen guys have great springs and then fall in their face a million times, so like I'm not.
Being dupe by them.
I'm buying into what I saw in the minor leagues and the track record and like you said, the athleticism that he can make adjustments. All right, let's go to the pitchers. Give me two pictures on the breakout team for the Welsh And why the.
Two pictures I have got?
Oh, mister Michael Kopek, who we have talked about a whole bunch who I didn't take it from you.
I know, I was happy. I was happy about that.
It's a crumb I gave you.
Michael Kopek. You know he's always in fantastic shape. I just was over at White Sox camp where I got my nice little Lanceln picture and he was out there and he was interacting.
Looks good.
I mean physically, he just is so imposing. He's probably like Lucas Giolito is Jack, dude. I don't know if everybody has seen it, like when you see him in person, Oh my god, he is absolutely Jack, but the second most physically imposing picture out there is Kopek and the same thing as before. You know, he was with the major league team last year, but he was returning from Tommy John. He had these injuries and he was going
in a relief role. This is a year for him to be working more with the starters, even though I have seen him with like Garrett Crochet and the relievers a little bit. I am hopeful that he has stretched out. He's such a big strikeout option. I love Michael Kopek as a big breakout. And the other one is Logan Gilbert with the Seattle Mariners. This is a year and anecdotally, I could just tell you I was just at Mariners camp and this guy is so intense and locked in.
Two days ago, they had a spring he wasn't in the game, and they have the minor league games in the back. He was out at the minor league games watching and like scouting and going through. Was just at the Mariners camp. Everybody was gone, all the pitchers far gone for the day. He stayed out on the throwing
mound working by himself for over an hour. All the hitters were gone, all the pitchers are gone, and he kept out there just working, working, working, throwing at They have these like mannequin looking hitters with a strike zone and then you know, a.
Bucket for the ball.
That guy was out there before I left, like I left and he was still out there. He's one of the hardest working guys major League. Remember when that's like what it was, That's exactly like what it is. It's a one hundred percent.
Yeah.
And I don't know if it was the owner, if it was the lady owner, but he's a high command guy who I don't think he has the most insane stuff ever, but it's a really great organization as far as you know, teaching spin and being able to work through all that stuff that this is a good command pitcher. It's why I picked him last year. I thought is maybe the number one pitching prospect between him and Alec Manoa, and I think this is going to be a really important year when he's.
Got a rotation spot.
There's a fantastic team built around him with lots of runs. I hope the er keeps down, but I think he's going to walk into double digit wins this year just based on the team. And he's one of the hardest workers I've ever seen as far as a pitcher goes, so Logan Gilbert an easy breakout pitcher for me.
Yeah, I love the Gilbert pick too.
I Mean, everybody knew Kopek was going to get on this list, but the Gilbert one to me, and I was actually just looking a little bit more at him, and it all just makes sense, man Like to me, it's an easy one.
As you're saying, sometimes these are just easy now for me.
One of them is Jill Ryan, who of the Minnesota Twins that you'd heard Ariel Cone on this show a few weeks ago talk about him and what he thinks so far of his potential to really take that next step forward. You saw a little teas of it last year on the big league level, you know, just just to tease. Though five starts, twenty six innings pitch, he struck out thirty.
Guys you walked only five.
Look, and I think he's like the number ninety seven prospect or something like that overall. So for some reason he's not as higher up on the prospect list. But sometimes the guys that show up and dominate aren't always the guys one through ten.
It's just always like that.
It's right, he is Zach Gallon. By the way, is that like Joe Ryant?
Like I remember Zach Gallin, he didn't have he didn't have like the best stuff on the planet, but he kept dominating and dominating through the miners.
Joe thing dominating is the right word because in the minor leagues, two hundred and twenty six innings, three hundred and twenty six strike its three hundred and twenty six strikeouts. That's an enormous number and just fifty three walks.
So to me, it's just like Gallit just yeah, I love that bit.
It's a great comp. The Gallon comp is a great one.
And the other one is a guy with Tampa who I don't think everybody even remembers about is Louis Patino, who, if he could just get healthy and on the mound, this was a prime pitching prospect just a couple of years ago with the Padres that everybody was once again pushing their grandmother out of the way to get a hold of. And now now it's about does he get a crack at the rotation?
Is he healthy enough?
Because this is another player that has vast potential, had good control of the minor leagues, has that strikeout upside that you're looking for ten point nine k per nine in the minor leagues over two hundred and sixty three innings. I mean, this dude was a couple of years ago people would ask you who was the best pitching prospect in baseball. Many people would say Patino, right, and the Tampa Bay Rays have a pretty good track record last
time I checked a grooming young pitching. So I'm all in on Patino this year everywhere I can get him and then last and maybe least or maybe not. But let's get to the relief pitchers here, and once again we like to sometimes, you know, tweak.
This a little bit.
And I already have a mea culpa because I think a guy that I had on the bus list, you have on the breakout list now at this position, and I think I have in a week or so of watching him pitch twice, I think I've come around. I think I'm already going to take him off my list and agree with you.
Yeah, you don't want to, like you know, you don't want to take what happens in spring for the be all end all. But when you see a picture, when you see a pitcher have their average velocity on their fastball rise by around three miles per hour. It's something that you have to take notice on, and that's his use lozarda I didn't go with like a closing option here, you know, finding the right next young closer, especially young guys that are going to break out and be closers.
I mean at that point it's Camilla daval, which I think you could if there was a young young guy who could start closing, he would qualify at that and that might be.
A good breakout. But the guys that qualify it relief pitchers. That's what you've got.
That's what you've got, and he's just Lozardo who will qualify and over those spots a lot of injury issues. Looks like he's commanding his pitches better, his secondaries are setting up the fastball. His fastball is going even more and in his last couple starts, I think Chris Clegg from Vantrax had noted it, which is a great note that in his last start in spring, Lizardo threw his
curveball more than his fastball. I think it was forty to thirty five, thirty six percent curveball in favor of fastball.
Which that's a great mix.
If you can command your curveball to that level and get enough swings and misses on it where you can overpower that than your fastball, then you're gonna have hitters guessing all the time. And then guess what, By the way, if you can throw off speed breaking stuff and then you can command a ninety eight mile an hour fastball that's coming off of that, you're gonna give hitters fits.
All day long.
I've also always loved Lozardo because he's a really smart, weird pitcher who does the different pitching mechanics. I don't know if he's scrapped it at all. I haven't really seen that yet, but he's one of those guys he would have his normal rotation and then maybe his next pitch he would like stop and he would sit for three seconds and then throw it like he literally would have like five or six different ways to pitch, and it keeps timing off. And I love that with pitchers,
and I hope to see that more. With more confidence, better health, a better fastball, and command of secondaries that Lozardo's Yeah, He's just gonna be one of those beneficiaries for spring that I'm going to buy into and if I'm wrong, who cares?
What's so cheap?
Yeah, he's where I mean, he's so free right now? Where is he right now?
I think it's post three hundred?
I want to say, is it still after this week? That's my only.
Well if you, yeah, if you, if you're able to like time search it over the last week, I'll bet you he's probably Jesus three.
Okay, yeah, to eighty nine right now in the consensus and Fantasy pros NFBC to eighty four.
Uh so, all right, so let's gets in there, getting more, getting up.
It's getting up there. It is getting drafted.
He's no longer going to be a free you know, like on fan tracks though, he's even higher because you have a lot of dynasty leagues there. Yeah, so you know people are taking those shots early on that.
All right.
Last guy for me is Christian Xavier. You know that the relief picture that I'm very enamored of. Everybody you know knows he's probably gonna start in the bullpen.
That's fine. It's April.
Actually, I think they announced it. They announced it today, Dusty Baker did.
Yeah, and I'm not surprised, but If you think that Jacob Derizi and Lance mccollors and those guys are gonna all pitch, you're nuts. Like I've it's like a James Bond movie, Like you know, you know the formula, you know what's coming down the pike. I wish Lance mccullors was going to be healthy enough to pitch and make thirty starts this year. I'm just very skeptical it's going to be the case. And you're also telling me that no one else in this rotation is going to misstart.
Christian Haavierre is gonna make starts. I think he's gonna make somewhere between fifteen and twenty this year. I really do, And I think that's really worth investing in, especially those mandatory RP spot leagues, because I think he's a guy that's got already gonna give you a ton of strikeouts to strikeout rates off the chart. I think another year in the big leagues once again, this guy is just electric. So I'm bidding on the talent because I think the
opportunity is gonna present itself sooner than later. So let's recap the team here for the Welsh A catcher Joey Bart at first base, Spencer Toorklesen, then Josh Rojas at second, at third, Alec Bohm, almed Razzario which shortstop, the outfielder Jared Kalnick, then Michael Kopek, Logan Gilbert are the pitchers, with Jesus Lozardo and for me behind the dishes, Tyler Stevenson at first is Alex kiro loov Bran Rodgers at second, Caprian Hayes a third at shortstop, Willia Doms, Joe Adell
and the outfield Joe Ryan and Louis Patino are the pictures with Christian Javier as the reliever.
So pretty good list of names, Welsh. I feel like these guys.
Are gonna have some really good seasons potentially ahead of us in twenty twenty two. And just as a reminder to everybody out there, I know you got drafts coming up.
Get on that.
Go to Fantasypros dot com slash kit and get our MLB draft kit.
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Dominate your draft right now with the projections, the salarycap values, the cheat sheets, everything you need and don't forget. We've also got great content at fantasypros dot com two because we got the consensus Sleeper list, which is coming out I think Tuesday, So depending on when you're listening to this that Consensus Sleepers Featured Pros article, it's gonna have a ton more names they're gonna be looking for in your draft.
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And don't forget the Welsh and.
Me Joey p five days a week talking baseball and leading off right here on our YouTube channel, live at noon so you have lunch, or you get to your office at nine o'clock if you're on the West coast or whatever.
You get your home office, whatever people do nowadays, home office, we're gonna have. The ratings are gonna be through the roof this year.
The roof.
I mean, there's gonna be a little bit of a like Dan Harris miss that's gonna happen.
But hopefully we can hopefully.
Wait for the person on the chat there in the commons, say, who's this guy? Where's Dan Harris?
Dan Harris gained a lot of weight.
Dan Harris looks different. I don't understand what, but anyway, they will love fighting.
He's a superhero now, so.
Everybody loves you already. He's fighting. He is the Bruce Wayne to the Gotham city somewhere.
And.
Dan Harris is walking around.
I'm vengeance, Like, all.
Right, Dan, I thought you were Dan Harris like this, I'm vengeance.
I'm pretty sure it's more.
Like, Oh, he'll make fun of his voice. I'm gonna tell him I just did that impression.
You could tell me because he didn't make fun of me on the live stream. That's what friends do. You make fun of each other and then inevitably someone slaps somebody.
That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for the Welch, I'm Joey b We'll see you next time. Kids,