The 10 Most Undervalued Pitchers in 2025 (Ep. 923)

was a tease. We didn't quite get all that help. I know we were there, we were there, it just didn't work out. Kyle Bradish didn't work out for him, but it did work out for Cole Reagan's, Carlos Rodon Bailey, Ober, some of those names. So we're gonna try to hit on some names for twenty twenty five. Don't forget to subscribe to Fantasy Pros MLB. Of course, ring the bell

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for you again. Download the app right now or go to Fantasy Broos dot com slash MLB Draft Wizard. All right, Welsh, first name on the list. We're gonna kick it off. These guys all currently, I want to emphasize currently, as of early February recording this, they're going outside the top one hundred. I want to start with a guy that I've taken in some mock drafts, and you've already taken in a mock draft just yesterday. Grayson Rodriguez, all the

Baltimore Orioles. I feel like, again, this is a player we are just getting the teas as of right, we've seen what the upside look like and it's electric. Now they let Corbyn Burns walk, and if you're gonna let Corbyn Burns walk, you better be rest assured that they think that Grayson Rodriguez is ready to take that next step to truly be the ACE. So I know, the end of the year didn't work out the way the

Orioles quite wanted. They fell short there for a World Series run, but still an incredibly young team and Grayson Rodriguez still has the upside to be a fantasy ace, and you're getting him outside of the top one hundred, Welsh, I don't see how that's not undervalued at this point.

my gosh, guys, he's going to do bop bop. But I will say that, like outside the top one hundred, he's a guy that could easily flow seventy five picks or twenty five picks higher into around the seventy five ish range. Like if someone told me right now he could be a top twenty sp this season, I really wouldn't be too shocked.

contact rate that he was giving up. He lowered the hard hit while increasing his strikeout rate this past year. A little caveat would be that they are making the right field wall a little bit more hitter friendly where the I'm sorry, yeah, left field wall where the right field wall is a little bit more pitcher friendly. So they're taking out some of that pitcher friendly environment.

outside the top one hundred. If you're looking for actual, true young pitchers today take that next big step. He is one of those guys, So like, I buy the under value.

gonna look it around. Like I like Ivan Aga, I like Framber Valdez, I like you know, guys like Aaron Nola who are just very steady every single year, right, Guys that I feel like I can count on. And then I want to get somebody that's got a little bit of something extra, and I feel like Grayson Rodriguez. One of these guys got a little bit of something

extra where there's upside. He could be a fantasy A. So to me, you know, if you if you're starting a rotation there with one of those steady one a's and you back it up with a guy like Graci and Rodriguez, that's the recipe where you could really have something special and then a great offense on top of it. Next guy on our list, Justin Steele, friend of the show. You know he was in my must haves a couple of years ago. I've always been ahead of the curve.

I feel like on Justin Steele, he's going at one twenty one overall the consensus ADP rankings over a fantasy pros. I'm in on the Cubs this year. I think they smell blood in the water in this division. Right say Lewis has taking a massive step back. I think you look at Milwaukee losing Devin Williams, losing william Doms' there's

opportunity here for Chicago to step into this void. They acquired Justin excuse me, they acquired Kyle Tucker and now they have an opportunity with Justin Steel and showed at Imanaga and this pitching staff. They signed Matthew Boyd to really kind of push in a little bit and say, hey, we're gonna go all in for twenty twenty five. And if Steele can just get out there and make the

thirty starts, I think he's a tremendous value. I think one of the more underappreciated starters the last couple of years went healthy.

But the thing is, you know, not enough people are talking about Justin because, like the profile on what he's been doing, he's not the biggest craziest strikeout pitcher in the world, but he had you know, twenty four percent

K percentage, still maintained a relatively low walk rate. But the really big positives have been his maintenance of being able to create just bad contact against two twelve batting average expected batting average against under four percent or under four point two percent barrel rate, which was under what it was last year. Three point zero seven ERA, a two point seven four expected ERA, which is fantastic. He's got more run support this year and a crazy thing too.

If you go and look, he was phenomenal in the first half last year. Looking at your splits, I think it was two seven to one. He raised a run in the second half of three point seven and two in less innings. But four of six months pitch last year he had a sub three ERA. There were only two months that kind of inflated. So you know, Justin's got He's got a good strikeout repertoire. He's gonna get low batting averages. He maintains his ra there's more run support.

He goes outside the top one hundred and he kind of falls out of like the sexy, big strikeout pitchers that people are going for. I really want to see the health this year, and I want to get back to those big innings because I think there's an extra value on pitchers that are gonna get I've said this forore. One point eighty is the new two hundred or two twenty as far as innings pitched. There's just not enough

guys that are doing that. If Justin could stay healthy and you get one seventy five out of him, he is going to beat this value. Definitely an underrated pitcher, maybe because he just doesn't he's not flashy is a good word to say for it.

the low threes. That's Justin Steel and does not get enough credit. Jack Flaherty coming in next at one thirty eight, back in Detroit, somebody last year very controversial. I mean every show when is Welsh gonna talk about Jack Flaherty's regression And look, you know, Jack Flaherty turned in a really good season and now he went back to Detroit, which I gotta tell you if you had concerns about him, I think maybe this would be something that would be

more positive. Right if you landed back in a new spot, maybe you feel differently about Jack flaherty. But because he went back to where all that success was basically regenerated for him with Detroit and whoever those voices were inside inside his head, very Randy Orton esque, whatever you want to call it, I think that that's probably a big positive for twenty twenty five. Does that assuage any fears of a twenty twenty five Jack flaherty disappointment for you, Welsh, No, I.

and ninety five innings. Dude posted almost two hundred strikeouts and one hundred and sixty four innings last year he was sick three point one seven ERA expected was just like a tiny bit higher, but I'm very excited about him

being in this spot. He posted thirty six percent WFT rates on his two second most used pitches, thirty six percent with rate on his slider, forty three percent on his knuckle curve while putting up you know, a decent fastball fastball by the way, the twenty eight point seven percent K percentage, which like that's high for a fastball. He's getting big strikeouts. He's in a spot where he you know, lifted by Tarik Skooble, a solid young offense

in there. We've seen him kind of just step up in his game to be a dominant strikeout pitcher that has lower ERA numbers, which that's what gets me excited.

And the biggest one here were his role. Here were his four rolling walk percentages from twenty twenty to twenty twenty three nine point four percent, eight point one percent, three thirteen point two percent, and ten point two This past year five point two he became a high strikeout low walk that equates to around almost twenty five K minus walk percentage, which is like elite you give me that again. You give me one hundred and seventy innings

on Flarity. Flarity is a deal, by the way, so the undervalue tag to this one thirty eight on the consensus ranks. He just still hasn't quite moved up. People haven't caught up to him. I love Flarity. Flarity is projected on the bat to have a ten point five to nine k per nine, which is crazy for a starting pitcher and a sub four era.

We're talking about an elite level Caper nine guy. We're talking about like in the twelves. This is a dude, and there is a situation where if he's healthy and he is consistent, he is going to fit right in. If not, maybe even like start to join the conversation of some of these other guys at the top of that rotation out do I think he's as good as Logan Gilbert. No, but could he be Bryce Miller Ish? I think he ken like I think he's I think

he is right on that precipice. If he can take some of that strikeout rate back in twenty twenty five and get that number back up, that's the key for him for that fantasy level we're looking at. But this is a very good young pitcher regardless, and I think somebody people should be very excited about. He's just twenty five years old. There's a lot more here. Good size six two two o five like, he's got a good frame.

He's got what you're looking for in terms of all those other factors, and I think last year was sort of the coming out party, and now I think a tremendous value where you're looking to build out your rotation. What do you think of WU win twenty.

in it. And what I really like about him is sometimes I get when you go into like high strikeout pitchers, sometimes they have higher walk rates. You could all of a sudden have some inflated whip. Brian Wu's got the support of one of the best the best pitcher environment in Seattle doesn't have enough run support right now.

Kirby light and he could really move up. But I think there's a really nice baseline with Brian Wu. He definitely is under He's a lot of target. He's a target for a lot of people. But he's right around the one fifty range. He is undervalued for what he does to a team, and he's he's a target. He definitely target.

in twenty twenty five. But this was an intriguing signing to me in the offseason because I was really curious where he was going to land, mainly because when I was doing the Black Book right up on him, the ERA was at four h five, but the XCRA was three seventy, the FIP was three forty six, the x FIP was three twenty like all these other indicators like Mankakuchi was really much better than the ERA even told you. And you're getting big time strikeouts and you're getting big

time value. This is a player going right on the precipice of one to fifty overall. And to me, you could do a lot worse. Again, Yeah, chasing wins with him, no, But are you chasing strikeouts and trying to beef up towards the end late? I think the answer is yes. Thirty three years old and a guy that I think is you know, now established in the major leagues year and one of these tough lefties, and sometimes those lefties take a little bit longer to figure things out.

of a rotation. He has one hundred and sixty seven innings over two straight years, and he's got an interesting profile that he just had a career high K percentage with a career low walk percentage, so it's like the case went up and the walks actually went down. He's got some worriesome like gives up some hard hit stuff. He registered, you know, MAXIV of one nineteen nine percent barrel is very very concerning. But all four pitches he

throws twenty five percent or higher K percentage. Every pitch he throws is a potential strikeout pitch with a walk rate that is declining. The era tells us something as well. I think Kokuchi is just a really good piece to add to your rotations. You're starting rotations and fantasy, especially if you're maybe a tiny bit devoid of some strikeouts. You've got some mid line guys you're like, hey, I got Logan web over here. I took Brian wu. Let Kokuchi boost up those strikeouts a little bit.

I'll give it to Mayor. Organized players into tears, add personal notes you could streamline all of that process for you and automatically update the cheat sheet with the latest expert consensus rankings to reflect the most current information. So you go into your draft you are ready to kick ass and take names. Use the cheat sheet creator at fantasybros dot com slash cheat sheet, or again, just download draft Wizard app and use the cheat sheeet creator on

there too. Next guy on our list coming in at one sixty seven overall consensus. ADP whould have thought that the Mets would start to become the organization to turn around reclamation project pitchers. They did it with Semarino last year, and they also did it with Sean Menaya, who moved to the extreme left side of the rubber and all of a sudden became Chris Sale. I mean, I don't know what happened there, but it was dude. The guy was tremendous. Heap in the second half, had a four

to one strikeout to walk Ratio. I have seen shohel Tani take very few uncomfortable at bats in the playoffs. He looked all kinds of befuddled against seaw Manaya. It was it was fun to watch as a Mets fan. It was very entertaining. I saw shoe A Tony take one of the worst wings I've ever seen him take against Shawl Manya, where he basically struck out and went, Okay, I'm gonna go sit down. He could not pick up

the baseball. It was incredibly difficult. Now the big question is the ADP is here for a reason because people are saying, okay, Ken, you do it again. To be honest with you, Welsh at this stage in the ADP, at one sixty seven, I'm taking that risk there. I absolutely think he can. This Mets team is going to be good defensively, They're going to be good offensively. And I think at the same time, you're looking at Shan Manya being in a very comfortable situation where he's confident. Sure,

the playoff innings, all the extra stuff, that's fine. But Manaia another guy that feels like he's just been around forever. He has bounced around everywhere, and that typically means it's a guy with talent. You're just waiting for somebody to crack the code, and it feels like last year it got cracked.

crazy strikeout percentages. And then you know he's still able to mix in. You've got that change up. He threw eleven percent of the time the four team still kind of keeping guys honest, and that change up sweeper combination, that was the fix. He just the arm angle equated to the and he lowered the velocity by the way of the sweeper. It just became his big devastating pitch. It's the pitch du joor or two years ago as a sweeper. This past year it was a splitter, but

it's worked for him. He found the combination. I do think he is undervalued. He's not exactly my biggest target on the planet. But you know what, he's going to get innings with an offense of Soto and Lindor leading the way. He had an an expected era that's supported. It was still under four and he's got a big,

massive strikeout pitch. It's kind of hard to argue. The other thing I really liked he was first to second half almost the same pitcher around a three point four era on both sides, so he was consistent throughout the year. So I think this pitch mix really works for him. It's enabling him to be a higher strikeout guy twenty essentially twenty five percent. I just love for him to walk a little bit less. But he's making it work

and you're getting into free range. It's kind of hard, Like I know, people are like always arguing about everything anybody does, like.

is an older picture. He's not a slight guy. Like I just I feel like it's I feel like it's sustainable, and I feel like mentally too, to come back where he had so much success, kind of like Flawerty that conversation when somebody gets you on track, the confidence, when you take them out, it just oozes and and that's why he like, I have a morbid Frankie Mantas curiosity based on Severino in Manaya, because it's not like Montos at times when he was healthy, wasn't a good picture

in the major leagues. When he was with the athletics, he was a good picture for a while there, and then injuries obviously derailed that, but we'll see again. I want to emphasize the word morbid curiosity. Brandon fought at one eighty. Friend of this channel too. We've been very into Brandon fought for a long time, and I think it's just completely unfair. I think this ADP is absurd.

A guy who's gonna get you, you know, k per nine nine, k per nine in that range, right, he's gonna give you a strikeout in inning he had a four to seven one ERA, but that's not the story. His XCRA was a full run lower. His fit was three sixty one is x fit is three fifty eight. If you tack on let's say a three six one ERA to Brandon Fott, there's no way he's at this ADP. I think this is just lazy fantasy and lazy drafting. And Brandon Fott is a guy that I'm gonna have

a lot of shares of. Oh wait oh when he's on an offense scores a crap ton of runs. Yeah, yeah, I'm gonna take Brandon fought well.

His problem is been Homer's and he can't get out like he has like a one point five whip against lefties and a sub one whip against righty. So, you know, I would assume that might be maybe a pitching coat. That's why Brett Stawm was fired also, as they you know, they moved him on the rubber a little bit, but maybe it's just a little bit more of a change up to, you know, be a little bit more baddly against left handed hitters. But you know he's working on

that fastball becoming a little bit better. But again it is the best, one of the best sweepers in all of baseball. Expected numbers are on his side. Year over year, he did lower quality of contact against hard hit percentage went down under forty percent. Barrel went from eleven the year prior down to eight. He's a young pitcher that's making moves. He was phenomenal in the first half. I

think the strikeout potential could pop up. He was around twenty four percent and by the way, even in his struggles with the fastball and the Homers five percent walk grate. That's great, you're almost a twenty percent K minus walk percentage guy. I clearly I'm a stupid Homer. With Brandon Fott, I've watched him for years and the miners, I think

this guy can be an elite pitcher. And we have seen some massive adjustments he has made since he's been up in the majors, and people are kind of crying about, Oh, it's gonna be this. It's like, no, man, the sweeper's gotten better. He's throwing more than two pitches. They've moved him on the rubber. I think you're going to see another big jump. Expected stats are kind of telling that story. And if the Homers drop at all, Brandon Fott is

going to blow past this. And again, this is outside the one fifty seam and I and Brandon Fott are two great like sp or six or something you could throw into your fantasy rotations that have got a ton of upside.

You got a guy that's gone one sixty five at least in two straight seasons, so he can eat some innings. He's really low walk you're gonna have low whip, good era. You're just not gonna have a big stance. As far as like strikeouts go, I like, I like the repertoire. Maybe there's some strikeout potential, but again I think there's just solid run support for a guy that can eat innings and is not going to just blow up your team.

domination here. We're talking about a two seventy era. We're talking about a strikeout rate of thirteen point nine, a walk rate of two walks per nine. Like, this is a guy that you know, I understand health has been troubling. I understand the eras have been high. I understand, you know, all the things that have gone wrong with Nick Lodolo, But you could also look at the director of Hunter Green and say, okay, well, last year Hunter Green really

started to put it together. And Lodolo and Green are two very special arm talents. If they can learn about pitching right at the major league level, this is a guy that could really take off in twenty twenty five. And I'm looking at Lodolo as one of these guys I'm drafting as a bench pitcher that has the ability to basically end up being like a number three fantasy starter if things break right, and if they don't, it

doesn't cost me a lot to find out. I think to have that sort of upside make some very undervalued outside of top two hundred. And I like this Reds team in twenty five.

trade for somebody got a trade for Lodolo. It's the injuries that keep me off. The guy hasn't gone over one hundred and fifteen innings over the last three years.

a twenty five percent with rate. I think that changeup needs to get a little bit better and then he's going to be able to establish himself as like more of a threat because the walks are still a little bit high, and I think he's a guy that should run higher. K percentage. He had twenty eight percent two years ago. It was down to twenty four percent this

past year. If he can stay healthy, I do think he has the makings of being kind of like a Maybe the designation would be more sleeper, but I will I'll give you this from the underrated standpoint.

know what it's going to take. I'm not sure the Reds have this big, great track record of pitchure health. I mean, I guess Hunter Green has turned it around, but Lodolo hasn't been able to stay out. So it's kind of a proved me type of thing.

asset more than anything. When I'm talking about like I want to have ass I want to have talent on my roster to try and make the moves when I need to make the moves and get the best of the upside of a player. Last Bininarialist, a guy that has teased greatness before. Another left handed starter, now finds himself on the Philadelphia Phillies at two thirty three. Hazus Lozardo a guy that has been argued on this show by many an analyst for many, many years and has

been around for a while. He's had some health issues, some performance issues, and then some peak. Right now he's going from Miami to Philadelphia. You can't ask for a better jump. Do you see Lizardo as a guy that you want to take a shot to buy back in on In twenty twenty five because it feels like going outside the top two hundred for a guy who not that long ago was looking like a dominant guy on the rise now is a starting pitcher that feels almost forgotten.

hour on his fastball. All of those things are not great, and it didn't generate any whiffs but that is more than the anomaly than anything, because the years prior three point three to two and one hundred innings three point five eight ERA tons of strikeouts. He had two hundred and eight strikeouts just a year prior to that, with lower whip numbers twenty eight percent K percentage in twenty three, twenty one this past year, lower walk rate three point

five expected actual ERA the year prior. So you look at all of that and you go man health was a huge problem with him last year. He has shown bigger fastball, bigger strikes out, and now he's going to go to a much better team, much better environment. So if he's healthy and you got the run support in Philly with that strike up potential. Also pointing out I said Chris Sanchez, I think they are doing great things

with their pitchers. We might be able to kind of refig oh Sanchez is working on a new fourth pitch here.

fatigue in the fantasy baseball space. Would you think that that's irrelevant?

a better support system around him and better offense. And most importantly, he's undervalued because he's free two thirty three overall out it's almost the end of your draft. Lozarda is just a great value pick that really could hit, and that's why we targeted him as one of the undervalued pitchers.

Drop your comments below, Subscribe to the channel and ring the bell today goes ding for notifications and download Draft Wizard and start getting your mock on. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for the whole shome. Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.