MLB: Leading Off September 13th, 2022 (Ep. 594)

Leading off starts right now. And look at that pretty face stinting right next to me, sitting right next to me, actually not even remotely close to me, maybe a thousand months or it is Scott Bogman joining me today. I'm Chris Welsh. It is leading off because the Bubbs is without power. Bubba had sent a frantic text this morning. I don't think there's power, and I usually could have done this alone though I don't have an overlay, so I would have been standing here naked the whole world

You did that all wrong.

You have to be now pinch hitting for Scott Boman, you know, one of those yeah, Bom bom Scott uh yeah.

Happy to be here, Happy to help out Bubbo when he needs it. And if my voice stays with us, then I'll be good to go.

So let's rock and roll. Let's talk some baseball.

There we go. It's been a little bit since we had Bogmin on here. The Bogman has not been not talking about baseball. Of course, over at the end of this League Fantasy Baseball podcast, we've been doing that but Bogman has been all over the betting pros halftime last night on Monday Night football on the college side, doing football, every little bit of football everything. So glad to have you here, Betty, and glad to talk about Mike Trout home run his seventh straight game on Monday in a

Yeah, I mean it has been really good. Like you said, can never help the Angels. I mean, I didn't know that they were three and four in a seven game homer streak. But it's also maybe the least surprising stat of the year because the Angels get these great players and just cannot win games.

It literally is.

You and Walkee at the same time you said that, and Walkee in the chat said it is literally the most Angels thing.

It is.

It is they can't figure it out. They need to sell the team. They need a new strategy. They can't just be like, hey, let's pay for the stars and get no one else around them to help at all whatsoever.

So you know, it's actually amazing. They're like the only team that money can't buy a win. Like for whatever reason, they just keep throwing more money and more money, and it gets worse. The situation just gets worse every time. They really should just yeah, they should dump all the payroll and just see what happens. You don't think it could be that much worse.

I mean, as soon as they signed Josh Hamilton, they should have been like, we need to re evaluate everything. They signed Hamilton, they signed pool holes, they gave Rendon a bunch of money. The only two players that have worked out for them are Trout and o Tani. Nobody else has really worked out, so you know, Jared Walsh, I guess was okay for a little bit, but yeah, I know for a minute. But like what else has

So a fun fact to attach to this to I believe tonight Trout will be going for this record because he needs one more to tie Dale Long, Don Mattingly and Ken Griffy Junior for the major league record of consecutive homers in a game. He's just a second Righty by the way to homer in seven straight games, joining Kevin Minch. So if he gets this tonight, he will join He will Griffy, he will join it. Would you be? I'm gonna take a look. I haven't looked at this yet.

Let me see, uh minus one fifty is seven straight games.

But isn't there a part of you that like he's hitting it's gotta be plus still right? I want to don't you wish you could bet against him hitting a homer? Tonight, so let's see.

No, no, you, I don't want to know what do you?

What do you? Is this? Uh? Evil wells? Share what's happening?

Like?

So you want to bet against him?

I totally forgot you can all right? So here it is. I'm so stupid. I completely forgot. So tonight it is plus two oh five for a homer and is minus two ninety on the under. So wonky, where is that one eighty? Because I got two o five on DraftKings right now? Will you be down to put a little bit of ducats on a plus two oh five for him to tie the record?

Uh no, uh no, I wouldn't.

Uh we know, minus two ninety on a little single bet.

Huh huh no win three?

You know how I am man, I am pragmatic about my betting. Uh I think would be the nice word uh here for it. So no, I don't want to bet on anyone to hit a homer, and I don't want to bet against the guy to set a record.

So no, uh no, thank he's.

Right by the way, I said, guess and she did guess. She followed complete directions.

By the way I followed directions, Welsh.

I like the chat that got into Evil Welsh here, and they're like Evil Welsh's regular my hairs. It if it could just split into little horns like little Wolverine.

I like, well, the glove to Jet Hirst or whatever I breakfast.

I am, I have hands hurting, Doctor Glenn, I need a doctor.

Well, she got to go get on his hog after this show, so I've got to put the gloves on first.

So ready for Mike Trout. I don't know, I'm tinted. I don't I think that this is a wild record of a home run streak. I can't imagine they're gonna want to be giving him good pitches. But it is Cody Morris. It's a young kid that's gonna be pitching. Cody Morris is pretty good, by the way, but it's gonna be a young kid that is going to be pitching up against him. And I mean, Trout's gonna be swinging for the fences, so that'd be a fun bet.

What such a baseball thing too, because it's like, oh, Mike Trout has a back injury and it's gonna affect him for his entire career.

We don't know if he's gonna even be good anymore. Blah blah blah blah blah.

How about he sets the record or ties the record for home runs in a game straight. I mean, just so, it's baseball, man. Yeah, that's baseball, Susan, there you go.

It's ball beauty, baseball beauty. Some other headline notes. Mookie bets connected three run homer t help the Dodgers to a six oh victory over the Diamondbacks, his thirty fourth of the year, and he is continuing to blank on the other side. By the way Ryan Nelson blank the Dodgers over six inning, but he didn't factor in the win.

Well, look, I'll say this, if you can shut down the Dodgers' lineup for six innings, he could shut down anybody's lineup for six innings. So sure, you know, he looks good. He's on a heater right now. So ride the wave. You know, the bubble is gonna burst at some point, hopefully not in your playoffs, but if you're at that point, especially he said he starts Saturday.

Now it's looking like yesterday this week, and I'm gonna guess it's gonna be Yeah, probably Saturday.

There's worst starts out there, and you know this is a start. If you're desperate, you need it, you need the strikeouts, you need the ra whatever. Yeah, you can roll him out there because he's been dependable the last couple starts.

So yeah, I think I would too, especially after the Dodger outing. I think there's a lot of confidence that goes into it. I mentioned he's a really smart pitcher. Multiple offerings, Padres, I been a little bit dicey, and this is a discord question. And this reminds me to let you guys know, if you guys have a question. At the end of this episode, we're going to try

So hot right now?

I know, I had Bashett moved past like Michael Harris because we had this talk about Michael Harrish with Bobashett and we had this The debate was interesting because it's like, what can you trade Michael harre because people like get off of the Michael Harris train. What could you optimize for Michael Harris? What would have been Bashett? You couldn't have done that now, but if you could, that would be kind of a win week ago.

That might have looked like a lopsided deal in the Michael Harris side, you know. But I mean Boba sheet has been the hotness, uh since coming into the month of September, So uh yeah, right, that way.

You can make God or I don't think you can make that trade anymore.

But that's that was kind of hot to the end of the year. Can he get himself back like near the first round?

I don't think he can get himself into the first round, but I think he can get himself firmly back into like the top. Well you know what I say that. I was about to say Lake Rode fifteen. Maybe, yeah, maybe he could. But like people are always asking like, well, what would be the optimized Mike Harris stuff. That's that's kind of what you need to do. You need to get these type of guys otherwise, don't trade him like they're they're kind of one and the same. But boba sheet and.

Call him Mike Harris, you guys, buddies, Yeah, you and Mike, your buddy.

Mike money mic maybe money Mike, that's his nickname. I actually have a I got a you guys can't really see it in here, but on the ball wall, I've got a Michael Harris inscribed money mic ball.

Nice my boy.

Dennis Sidler at sidsgrass Alec Minoa was scratched from a starting today due to a little uh he's got a little bad tummy. He's got a little tummy bug bogs little tummy.

Hey, you know what, you got a tummy bug? Your power goes out. Sometimes you just can't show up for work, right, so uh you know, uh, fire shots fire, Oh come on, Bubb, Does I love him?

If I didn't love Bubb, I wouldn't be here right.

So, but uh, you know, it's it's just part of what happens, you know, especially these days. Anyone has anything where they might be sick. Nope, stay the hell at home. We don't want you here, so go away.

Last piece of the news news will go to Andreies. According to Craig Mitchel for It's Sports Grade, Marlins are expected to call up Jordan Grosshands prior to Tuesday's game against the Phillies. He was a former Blue Jays prospect. I don't have great, great prospects on Jordan Groshan's power is kind of completely decimated. He's kind of found his bat a little bit more. But this is not this is not a guy that I'm looking to pick up right now. I mean, you know, opportunity to.

Him some experience at the end of the year, but you're not run to the wire. You spend that money.

Like Bogman's cliche availability is the best ability ability.

God, you can't even remember the cliche. I said it a thousand times. I was about to screw it up about the availability is the best ability ability.

Yeah, okay, it just didn't make sense to me when I was saying it in my head.

But yeah, more of a football term. But yes, I mean it applies to Jazz Chisholm.

So yeah. And Jordan Grosshan's on the injury front. Brandon Lau out of the Raised lineup for Game one due to some back discomfort. Wander Franco's back with the race during lineup for the opening contest of Tuesday's doubleheader against the Blue Jays. So there you go. And David Bednar is gonna begin a minor league rehab assignment on Tuesday with Triple A Indianapolis. I've got to go look because like I feel like there's like two days left of

Right, Ty Cobb?

Ty Cobb one of the best hitters ever, but like he is, definitely like the Christopher Columbus of baseball, not a guy that we should be celebrating, but by any stretch of the imagination, not very good dude.

But you know, a lot of gets into the stadium.

Yep, yeah, sure, yeah, we'll just go with that now. I can't.

Yeah, it's a little easier to get a lot of hits off of fifty nine mile an hour fastballs. But you know that's just me. This is me. I got a trivia question for you, bagman. You're gonna love this one, all right, No Dodger question, hate it. How many times have the Dodgers finished with the most wins among al n L teams and won the World Series, so it's essentially.

Just who's that and won the World Series?

They were the White Series and oh you absolutely know that, Yeah, you absolutely did. I'm surprised you got it.

Well, they won their one World Series and then you know what was the other one the Kirk Kipson won, So that's all I got.

Yeah, and it's funny too seeing this. So the two were in twenty twenty when they were forty three and seventeen because of COVID, and then they won nineteen fifty five where they were nine eight and fifty five.

So yeah, well they've led the league and wins a bunch of times and then choking the playoffs.

So let's let's keep that rolling.

We were talking about this on ITL yesterday too. An incredible run differential of three hundred and like twelve runs against opponents this year, which is number one. I think number two was like two hundred runs.

So they have like it was the Yankees somehow that that just imagine how many how many runs the Yankees were up before their skid where they had no offense for like six weeks and uh, you know, and now they're like two hundred runs their second But yeah, the Dodgers just keep you know, beating the Jesus out of everybody. They beat the d Backs last night by like six runs. So yep, that's uh, that's just that's.

The way it goes.

But you know what, you can have a three hundred run differential and still choke in the first round of the playoffs.

So we're here for it. Let's go hope.

That's your hope. Stat heroes. Marcus Simeon three for four with a homer and three RBI. Yesterday we talked about Boba Schett two for three with a homer and three rbhin a run. Aristate is a Keno. He was on the props yesterday for one and a half and I believe he was the plus money play if I remember correctly. Two for three, homer, two RBI. John Birdie had a couple stolen bases. You guys have been dying for that. Ralphael Ortega had a homer. He was two for thirte.

Yeah, I mean that's the nice part.

It depends on h because if he's just outside that top one fifty, I think that's like at value. But if he drops below like two hundred or something in that range, which you probably shouldn't maybe one seventy five ish, that is where I think you're starting to get really good value on him. So really, you know, I like Jeremy Pania and I hope he comes at a value, but it really depends on where we see him get drafted early.

Only a three point nine percent walk rate this year, which is garbage, but ten homers, I'm sorry, seventeen homers, ten stolen bases with a two fifty three batting average. Okay, runs an RBI for being moved out of kind of like those top spots in the order. I'm just gonna have to prove improve on discipline in the off season, be able to take a little bit more, a little bit more on pitches, kind of find your spot a little bit more, which could lead to a higher batting average.

This is like if Michael Harris started to struggle because he started out so hot. You know, he was so good to start, but then he hit that bump that we expect with young players. Michael Harris never hit the bump.

Yeah. Well, and I mean there's completely different, like just contact skills with those guys. Sure, Penio was never necessarily this type of guy, but just physical specimen and the leadoff stuff didn't work and everybody else picked it back up. But I don't know, Paniatic is going to be a good, like cheap buy back in the offseason for people, if you're in like even keeper dynasties or in redraft, I think it'll be one of those guys in like really

He's got three quality starts in a row.

Yeah, and that's the thing. March five ERA, May five, ERA seven in June five, almost six ERA in July, and then these last three starts after spending time in Triple A, really seemed to have changed out a few things and he's looking a little bit better.

Yeah, he has been looking good. And this is you know, specifically with pictures. You know, we talk about Jeremy Paney going on the roller coaster. This is Trevor Rodgers for sure. And he's still only twenty four. He still developing in you know, there's a lot of meat on the bone, as I like to say Welsh in terms of his future values. So obviously he has not done yet, and let's hope that he just continues this throughout the end of the season and we can have a little positive

Be overrated next year. It's just gonna happen again.

He's gonna have like three quarters of a terrible season and then still be overrated next.

I don't think there's gonna be any scenario where he goes too high because of how bad it is, but will what will happen is he will become a target, and then as he becomes a target, he will move up draft ranks, which will make him annoying because this is a guy that shouldn't be drafted inside the top two hundred.

Well, it'll be one of those things where it's like, yeah, he's hovering right around there, like in draft season, and then once we get to spring training, like if he has two three good outings, then through the roof you know that that's exactly what would happen with him. If he finishes off the year, Well, if he stinks it up again in his last couple starts here, then he probably won't even go inside the top two fifty.

If he gets all stinky. And as Wonkee said, where is it? I am the rose to his jack. I can't quit. You can't.

You'd let him drowned? Uh in the icy water? Is that what's happening there?

By the way, looking at his his Savant page, it's definitely moved off of being the dark blue that it was. I mean, yeah, fastball has been pretty plus ninety percentile in spin. Barreling is getting around even right now. The the X woe but e ra stuff is an X slugging and he's just still getting hit pretty hard.

I took a look at Jeremy Paneas and it's blue that, you know, pretty.

Blue there for Jeremy Payne.

Pretty pretty blue. Over on the hitters for the zero's Chris Chris morel over three, three strikeouts, Tyler Naquin over three with three strikeouts, Kraive Baby Wilmer flora Is over four with three strikeouts. Those were your big disappointments on the pitching side toward Rodriguez. Give up five and runs, over five, ten hits, only struck out two. Chris Bassett I thought was gonna be a great play yesterday. Uh

Didn't basket strike out ten in his start before this.

Yeah, well I think it was a good matchup too. It's just one of those that did not.

Where's Bassett's my heartbeat watching the Steelers game.

You know, Dogman, you were here. It's been like close to a month or so. The home run board has definitely moved.

And not yet. That's all I care about.

Dude. He's still on it because he's got judged every He just has judged every single day. But Mart, he is falling down. He is falling down a little bit like a button bridge. Not only do we have a new number one, but that number one has now we had it yesterday and Cat Fox, Cat Fox has a two home run lead calling Brian Reynolds yesterday with fifty two homers. Cat Fox is sitting at Dee Blum and

This is my request, Cat Fox, I'd like some lottery numbers. Appreciate that.

Thank you.

If you call Brian Reynolds, give me some lottery numbers.

Isn't it incredible too that these home runs are still not to Aaron Judge, Like, we're still not at Aaron Judge real life Homer levels, just calling them. It's just still wild to me. It's still wild to me. All right, friends, you know what time it is, Bogman, do you know what time it is?

What time is it?

There we go kings and queens for crowns and tiaras. We all make our bets over at bet MGM. That's right. All you've got to do is download the app or go to the website, use a promo code leading off and again again a risk free one thousand. You can get a risk free one thousand dollars bet by using our promo code leading off. Go and do it today. You can make any bet you want. You can get in on the props. But when you do it, think

You like it?

Oh? Okay, sure, I think you should leave it on personally, but you know, yeah, it's just me for a little bit.

Sure, Okay, there we go. Yeah, I like it.

I told you I look like, uh well, I look like a fat look like a pretty princess.

I look like congratulations.

It's fat wonder Woman who has facial hair, Fat wonder Woman and a circus. It's a circus version of Fat Wonder Woman with a beard and stuff. Here are your play I'm actually gonna take this off because it's very okiny.

Yeah, please do yes, thank you, please do?

Okay? Here going today. Here are four plays for you actually all pretty interesting and we've got two. We got two total base props and to strikeout plays. The number one play of the day is only one total base, but it's juiced up and it's our boy, Rake McCarthy.

Jake McCarthy, Rake McCarthy.

Let's go one total base, but it is minus one eighty five. That's on Draftking, So you're essentially for ten bucks. You're gonna get five bucks back if he gets it.

But you only need lefty lefty matchup. Yeah.

Uh the number one plus money play on total basis. If you didn't like that, if you want to go and play the total bass plus game, go to Adley Rutchman, who is one and a half total bases plus one seventeen over on sugar House and he's projected at two, so it's a pretty even matchup. But that was the number one plus money play. If that's your bag over on the strikeouts, two huge names today. The number one strikeout play is Garrett Cole. You only need seven strikeouts,

Do you like? Are you playing? I don't?

Are you parlaying two?

What do you like?

Out of all?

I'll say this, I'm never gonna bet against Jacob de gram ever, So there you go.

That's not a half strikeouts and it is against the Chicago Cubs. So if you get nine you still win. Anything over you lose, but it pays plus money. You got Garrett Cole, Ali Ruchmand McCarthy, what's your what's your bag?

Uh? Look, I like the Garrett Cole one. I think there's value there for sure. I'm not. I just don't know about McCarthy against Kershaw. He has been so hot, but that's a tough lefty lefty matchup. So I guess Ruchmand would be my other one. I kind of like the Alcontra one for today too. I think the strikeouts is five and a half, so there's a.

Lot of good pitchers going today on those plays. I mean, I gotta tell you, like, I just don't play unders on guys like c Stagram and Starter. Even yesterday, you know Stryder's number with seven and a half and he got nine. You know, I just don't play against these guys. And the Cubs are just brutal. I'm probably fading this and I didn't look at what the over is. If it's plus one fifteen, I'm gonna guess it's probably like minus one three.

If there's anyone that could get you know, nine strikeouts or ten strikeouts in the first eleven batters, it's Jacob de Gram, So why bet against him.

There's anybody you can figure out how to get ten strikeouts in the first two innings, it'll be him. It's not possible, but you know, if it were, it would be him. I didn't have a good DK info for you. It wasn't really listed, but you guys can piece that together. And you know, we did post questions, but we didn't get any great quote. We did have one question here, So if you guys, I gave you a chance. If you guys got questions for start, sit whatever, this is

I can't oh my lort Oh. That's actually what you should do to make you laugh is watch people drinking him alert on the internet. That's what you should do if Hunter Brown completely destroys all of our hopes and dreams here Hunter Brown Bandwagon as well.

I went pretty strong on the Hunter Brown stuff too, like this is a must, and because he's also got the a's after this, so it's like an absolute must that what time is this game? This game is at three four, This is gonna hurt over the run totals at four and it's against Drew Hutchinson. So uh yeah, I mean my lord is actually a good one because I think then you can just it's kind of a like hurt yourself thing, like you deserve the punishment and sometimes you have to do that. Thester did ask, do

Yeah, I mean that's fine. Yeah, that's uh, not something you want to do, but sure, let's go.

Yeah, yeah, that's a great way to say it. I'm not sure I want to do that, but I'd be comfortable.

Yeah.

Top of the top of the Red's lineup can can get a little crazy with Freeley sometimes, but India has just been bad, and you know, it's a bad offense kind of in general, let's go with the home run calls though home run calls of the night. Wonkey is going with Josh Young. Look at that called Josh Young, big power hitting Josh Young, who I read a stat from Jeff Zimmerman that he is striking out a fifty

You know what?

Give me Christian Walker against against Clayton Kershaw. So look, my first time on this show in like a month, so I need to go full homer.

He give me, give me a walk, you know.

BVP wise, I think Christian Walker has the second most home runs against a pitcher going today. He's got four homers against Clayton Kershaw. And here's a fun fact, hits over three hundred against Kershop over three hundred. Strikeout rates pretty low. He doesn't hit three hundred on anything except against Clayton Kershot. So that's a pretty good bet. I'm gonna go with Muke. I'm gonna go with Mookey hitting it. You know what I should do? You know know what I'm gonna I'm gonna train.

Till you yeah, change it.

Mike Trout, I'm gonna go with Mike.

There you go, there you go.

Let's have fun. I'm gonna go with my I'm not playing for anything with the home run contest. Let's uh, let's do that. I'm gonna go with Mike Trout today ties up the contest. Maybe should I bet it too, I don't know. Maybe i'll bet it.

I don't know, i'll bet it.

I don't bet more. Hope a big bet. Let's let's do it to Jennathon and we'll do hundreds of dollars on a home run call today at plus two hundred.

I think as long as you're calling it an amy, because I don't want to hear it.

So our boy, Doctor Glenn gave me my line box. I don't know if you know I've been we've been doing this. We've got a line every my pitching line of how my performance as host is and Doctor Glenn scores it. Doctor Glenn says, I went seven innings, gave up tour and runs, but I struck out seven. Bogman comes in relief, three strikeouts, and the trumpets played meat loaf.

That's pretty solid. I like that. I did.

My My favorite thing with the the trumpets and all that stuff for Edwin Diez is someone saying they're.

Playing the trumpets all wrong.

You don't play it like that, And someone said, yeah, well they're base Their heads are made out of baseball's so I think it's okay.

Oh they're mad about the mascots.

Yeah, like they're playing the trumpets all wrong, their fingers in the wrong place.

Like yeah, well their heads are baseballs.

So let's not get uh, let's not get stuck on the details here, guys, come on, let's go.

Yeah.

And a spoiler alert, those guys are also not playing the trumpet's point. Actually, oh man, I also hate to tell you the guy with his hand up the puppet. The puppet's not actually talking either, it's the guy. So all right, friends, that is the episode. Thank you to Bogman for hanging out. Find them on Twitter at Bogman Sports. You can find me on Twitter at is it the West. You can find us over to this league dot com and our Patreon and of course our podcast where we

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