MLB Leading Off May 9th, 2024 EP. 808 - podcast episode cover

MLB Leading Off May 9th, 2024 EP. 808

May 09, 202434 min
--:--
--:--
Download Metacast podcast app
Listen to this episode in Metacast mobile app
Don't just listen to podcasts. Learn from them with transcripts, summaries, and chapters for every episode. Skim, search, and bookmark insights. Learn more

Episode description

Joe (@JoePisapia17) and Welsh (@IsItTheWelsh) deep dive into the upcoming Paul Skenes debut. Prediciting his line, rest of season value and should you trade him now? This week's Prospecting with The Welsh, news, injuries, best bets of the day, and more.

Timestamps:
Introduction - 0:00:00
Paul Skenes - 0:00:49
Predict Skenes line - 0:02:06
Do you trade Skenes now? - 0:03:01
Jared Jones or Paul Skenes ROS? - 0:06:39
Yankees offense - 0:08:06
Dylan Cease - 0:09:12
Alex Bregman - 0:09:46
Prospecting with The Welsh - 0:11:11
Hold or Drop Manzardo? - 0:12:01
Junior Caminero - 0:14:54
James Wood - 0:16:37
Coby Mayo - 0:17:38
Orelvis Martinez - 0:18:00
Prospect Watchlist - 0:18:25
Tim Anderson's Savant page - 0:19:39
3 Up and 3 Down - 0:21:26
Injuries - 0:24:23
Best Bets of the day - 0:25:53
HR Call - 0:29:45

Sponsors:
💰 bet365 - Sign up now using our code LEADINGOFF and get the choice of two incredible New Customer Offers, the First Bet Safety Net or Bet $5 & Get $150 in Bonus Bets. Place your first cash bet up to $1,000, and if the bet loses, you will have your wager refunded in Bonus Bets, OR $150 in Bonus Bets will be added to your Bonus Bets balance once your original bet of at least $5 is settled. Sign up today at www.bet365.com/olp/open-account?…iate=365_03101631

⚾ FantasyPros MyPlaybook™ - Win your Fantasy Baseball Leagues, and take home bragging rights this year. Over 1 million teams have been synced for custom advice, rankings, and analysis. Get an edge on your opponents today, www.fantasypros.com/mlb/myplaybook

✅ BettingPros® - BettingPros offers consensus sports betting advice from 150+ experts to make it easy for you to start making winning bets. We promote the best experts based on one simple question, “How good is your advice?!” At BettingPros, we help you find the best lines for the NFL, MLB, and NBA by showcasing how the individual sportsbooks compare with their Point Spreads, Moneylines, and Over/Unders vs. the Consensus of all top sportsbooks. Sign up today at www.bettingpros.com and start betting smarter... not harder

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Welcome in, everybody to Fantasy Grows MLB. This is Leading Off Live, brought to you by BED three six five Bed five bucks get one hundred and fifty and bonus bets when you do at bet three sucks five only when you use the promo code leading Off. It's me Joey p that's the Welsh. It is the second time we're doing this because I didn't hit go live the first time because it's been that kind of day. And if you want to hear me rage, listen to Cleaning

Up on the audio podcast yesterday. I think we finally got that all set regardless. I see all the Peanuts and the Cracker Jacks. Happy Paul Skeen's week, everybody, and don't forget tomorrow's show. You gotta join us live our special tribute to the Peanuts and Cracker Jacks. We'll be here live on the program for twenty thousand. If you thought that the Whigs were good, you ain't see nothing yet. Welsh, how's it going? You must be excited about calling that

Paul Skeen's date. Pretty pretty sharp on your part.

Speaker 2

Come to me, my x men. I'm using my telekinetic powers to listen victory lapping is fun. Not gonna lie?

Speaker 1

Yeah, can I bottle that? Listen?

Speaker 2

Pleasen? Victory lapping is kind of fun. Definitely obnoxious two degrees. But when I call to the day, I'm definitely gonna be kind of stupid about it. But yes, it's the eleventh. We said, does he want to pitch on the road against the Cubs or at home? It always made sense. It was always always going to be the eleventh as he built up that pitching marker. Really, the only thing that didn't hit was him getting over eighty pitches in the last start. He only had like sixty something. He

was a little bit more. He had a couple walks, gave up a home run his first one, But either way, they got that build up there. He's making his debut. This is what we've wanted, and I'm I'm I'm really excited about it. I have a little game. Let's play another prediction game. Get you know, get the magneto helmet officers, give me the line, give me the Paul Schiens line coming up against the Cubs. How far does he go? Strike outs, walks, and then after we should talk about

his overall fantasy value. But let's do prediction game.

Speaker 1

I'm gonna go four and two thirds, seven strikeouts, no runs, two hits. That's where I'm gonna go, no walks.

Speaker 2

No walks. Okay, that's good. I'm it's funny you say that. I'm gonna go four innings, eight strikeouts, two earned runs, two walks. That's gonna be my line for Paul Skins. So the key here we both don't have him going five. Maybe he does, maybe he pushes that limit, but this is a guy that's probably gonna push up the pitch count. It's gonna, you know, throw a lot of high strikes. There's gonna be a lot of fastballs in there. Might walk a few, but it's gonna be a fun early

dominant performance. And I saw someone in the chat bring up the ultimate idea that Paul Skin's value has never been more high than this start coming up. But do you agree with it?

Speaker 1

On it? Look at this? Would you trade Paul Skins for medals? And in a.

Speaker 2

Second and missis seven minute?

Speaker 1

Yes, I'll look everybody in the chat, give us your prediction for Paul Skean's line on Saturday. We want to see what she's again. I say four and two thirds seven strikeouts, two hits, no earned runs, no walks. That's what I think. It's gonna be a very good performance from him.

Speaker 2

And let's see if we can get like a full prediction here. But so with that, like if that trade is out there, yeah, he trade ball Skins for Matt Olsen, But do you believe that this is the ultimate point of trade value because a draft you mean, yeah, yeah, oh yeah, of course, this is redraft dynasty. I think it's a whole nother ball game. You're not touching that stuff. But here's why I say this as well, and maybe

this feeds to him. Our dear friend Scott White posed this question yesterday of saying, is Paul Skins already like a top twenty five starting pitcher in ranks? I've got him in that general range. I just did my redraft rest of season update that's on. It's a part of the Fantasy pros algorithm and stuff. But like, do you

believe that he is already at top twenty five? Because where I'm going with this is if you think the upside is there, he's going to pitch the rest of the year, We're gonna see the strikeouts, he's gonna work into that top twenty five and continue to go. Trading him at top twenty five SP right now actually really wouldn't work, but because I think he is going to overperform that. But if you don't, you think he might

have some struggles. And you know, sometimes a fast ball gets a little bit flattened out, he doesn't go deep into games, he doesn't go five. Then this would be if he's valued at a top twenty five SP. So really this is kind of building. Do you think this is getting out of the Paul Skeens business in redraft right now? I think it's by optimizing.

Speaker 1

The trade value. I think, just like I've been saying with the Garrett Cole thing, it's it's I can only see. I guess he's so many negative outcomes, whether it be limitations, whether it be getting shut down, whether it be an injury. I mean, how often we see guys are throwing one hundred miles an hour and everything looks spectacular. We get all excited and next saying, you know, oh, he felt up in his elbow. I mean, how many times we have to be beat over the head with this. I'm

excited for it. Don't get me wrong, I see a lot of people trolling in the chat too. Two innings, five earned, four homers, like, oh, don't be jerks, it's not to be that. If it is, how hilarious is that going to be. I don't think it's going to be that.

Speaker 2

I don't This is not gonna be that fun with the hate of the you know, the production on the prospects as of late.

Speaker 1

But to your point, it's it's hard to it's hard not to say this is peak of redraft cell value for schemes because people will be frustrated because he might not get a lot of quality starts because you know, of depending, you're not gonna go lost six innings, you know what I mean, So path to the win becomes less.

So in roto formats, I think it's an interesting conversation, especially because you know he has to be dominant in order to maintain those really good peripherals in points leagues where you're looking for strikeouts and if you can get into the fifth inning, maybe get you that w okay. But it is a very tricky thing. I think it's a very format related question as well. But would you rather have Jared Jones or Skiings rest the season?

Speaker 2

Jered Jones. I would say that, why noation?

Speaker 1

But why well?

Speaker 2

I think Jared Jones has already proved to be able to get that pitch count, even if it's a little bit lower. Like he his fastball has been unhittable. He is pushing into the fifth and sixth inning. He has built up those innings. My slight problem with Paul Skeins is the big thing that was coming out of the draft was the fastball shape. Like he's dominated the miners. They don't know what to do with it. But you're gonna have the best hitters in the world that are

going to be up there. He's gonna have to command that at every spot. He's gonna have to learn to have some innings where he doesn't drive counts. This is a big strikeout pitcher. We saw this with Strider. Sometimes Strider would have some of those innings where he struck out eight, but he could only go into the fourth inning because this is what he does. He's a big

strikeer and this is who Paul Skeins is. So what I'm worried about is Paul Skins getting up into one hundred plus pitches early on, being able to get into the fifth and sixth inning. I don't think they won't let him do it, but they have slow rolled this process that I don't know. I think it's a possibility with some of his secondary stuff. If he's not having big, massive command numbers, he might have a little bit of

a struggle. But at the same time, based on you would say Jared Jones Top twenty five sp rest of season, right.

Speaker 1

Yeah, Well here's the other question too, what's the weather in Chicago?

Speaker 2

This we the weather outside is weather?

Speaker 1

Weather?

Speaker 2

Just last week? Oh you got that reference that you know what.

Speaker 1

Forget you their Marshall All Time great movie for you, that's one of their favorite quotes from that movie too.

Speaker 2

No, that's that's welcome to Colinwood. The weather outside is weather.

Speaker 1

Well, I know Paul Rudd in forgetting Sarah Marshall's.

Speaker 2

No, you're right, you're right. No that I'm thinking of a different line. Yeah, that is Paul Rudd.

Speaker 1

The weather outside is weather. It looks like Sunday seventy four degrees in Chicago. Saturday was actually sixty one degrees, so not too bad. You know, It's Chicago sometimes can be a little you know, rough weather wise, so that could enter into it. But look, I think we we're talking about schemes here. We're all excited. This is good for baseball. I wish it was not on a Saturday, to be honest with you, I wish it was like on a you know, like a third. I wish it

was tonight, like Thursday night, standalone game. That would have been like, so attacker, we're gonna all like get excited to watch it. Today is always trickier with you know, events and things like that. But there's more things going on than just Paul Skins.

Speaker 2

Now there's not you want to see it my one.

Speaker 1

So to oh oh face another home run for Juan Soda. Let's go Aaron Judge at a home run General Stanley even at all run, everybody was going I told you the team totally guess it was born half of the Yankees. He's card nine runs, nine See, he's a good day.

Speaker 2

That Stanton home run. That's the most ridiculous. I was just talking to you about watching happy Gilmore again after a long time, the most happy Gilmour like swing. Just he hits it across his body. Saw hundred Yeah. In the chat, one hundred and nineteen point nine, as it's described, one of my favorite terms, by the way, a pismissal. That thing was just that thing was crazy. He's so not good at baseball, though, and it's just that's what he does. I saw someone be like, how does he

do that? Because that's what he does. He's just a lumberjack. He just it was ever heard that. But that's tremendous that year plus ks. Yesterday Chris Paddock ten strikeouts. Amazing again with the Marlins, but still Chris Sale. We said we were looking forward to that start. Ten strikeouts against the Red Sox. So there you going. Dylan Cease not to be outdone. Twelve strikeouts. I gotta say Cese was a guy that was not.

Speaker 1

Really in on when he was a White Sox, and then when he got traded to the Padres, I had some buyer's remorse that I didn't have more shares. And I gotta tell you, Dylan Cease has been fantastic this year for the Padres. Absolutely brilliant. Eanduran struck out one batter in a scoreless night, so good on him. Jordan Montgomery a good bounce back after a bad outing last time. Two runs, seven hits over seven and the Rays activated Taj Bradley put Peppio on the il, so we'll see

how he does. It looks like Friday against the Yankees is gonna be the Bradley start. Just for fun. Alex Bregman, my boy, dropped to the six spot in the Astros order. Fan. I would just buy. He's not a one ninety five hitter with a two seventy five OBP with a two sixty slogging. He's just not He's not so by just buy.

Speaker 2

Who would you rather have rest of season? Alex Bregman or Chris Morrell.

Speaker 1

Alex Bregman, Stop stop Chris. Alex Bregman has come on, dude, He's got like six years of productivity. I know it's been varying, but Chris Morrell doesn't have one full season that sniffs what Alex Bragman's capable of. It's a bad months on.

Speaker 2

It'll be this year.

Speaker 1

It'll be this year.

Speaker 2

This will be the one where.

Speaker 1

Because he's so old and all of a sudden, it just makes sense. Trash cans right about now.

Speaker 2

Backman so overrated, he had the one great You see, this is the problem.

Speaker 1

I was the one pounding the trash can about the overratedness of Alex Bragman back in the day when everybody was going nuts, and then all of a sudden, post the scandal, everybody was out on Alex Bragman so much to the guy that I had to become the defender of Alex Bregman, which makes me unhappy. But here we are also unhappy Tyler Black because he got sent down to Nashville because our guy, Christian Yelich went out. Our guy, he's just a guy, came back and that's a good

thing there. So he is back for the Milwaukee Brewers. We certainly need some help on offense, but of course the rookie lookie is not the only thing you get on Thursdays. You get a lot more because it's time, ladies and gentlemen for prospecting with the Welsh. Look at that. There's Tom Hanks and a beard putting a pick axe through the Welsh's head and Welsh's kind of indifferent to it. He's like, whatever, man, it's just another day at the office.

So Welsh, this is the time where we dig into the prospect Watch here the guys down on the farm who are going to make an impact on fantasy baseball. So what do you have for the people, where do you want to start today?

Speaker 2

Well, we do have four names that we're going to talk about. The prospect articles available over on Fantasy Pros if you guys want to go and check that out now. I think there's eight nine names on there. But we also I deepen the list of prospects to watch. So I'm gonna give you a couple at the end, just a couple names to throw out that you should put on your watch list. There are more names that we're going to talk about that are on your stash list. But I wanted to ask one question because we had

some graduates. We had a really good week last week. We obviously Paul Skeen's coming off that list, Christian Scott came off the list in coll Manzardo, who made his debut. I wanted to get your take before we jump into anything here of the overall prospect failure that's been going on, people losing their mind about everyone. Commns Art has got to come up. We gotta get him up. Then he has like five strikeouts in the first couple. He's struggling.

He's got a sixty percent k percentage to start off hitting one twenty five. Do you hold Kyle Manzardo or do you kick him to the curb.

Speaker 1

Well, look, if you're a shallow league, I think it's different. I think you can kick guys to the curb. Like Jackson Holliday comes up, he doesn't perform, you can kick him to the curve. It's a shallow league, there'll be a chance to get him back or what have you. But I think this is this is kind of an overall r of arching issue where we talk about prospects and patience. It comes with patients, whether it be baseball

or there'd be football. I remember a couple years ago, everybody lost their mind because you were excited about the running backs, and then the second half of the year, all those running backs one people championships if you wait, even Jamior Gibbs last year. Right in the baseball world too, it's such a long season where you have to think of it the same. You have to think of it as like, well, if they come up in April or in May and they struggle, it's not the last chance

for them. If you're in deeper leagues and I think you got a hold. I always say this too when a prospect gets called up, if you can flip them for a player that you know is very steady and solid. Like if Kyle Manzardo came up and you could flip him for Alex Bregman, who has a track record of being good, I'd make that trade in the second Why because there's a track record telling me this guy's having

a bad month. But overall, I know what the numbers are gonna be when I look at the back of the baseball card, So I treat the shallow league versus a deeper league differently. And if there's keeper implications, that has to enter into it. Two. But you're just regular old redraft leagues. You have to be patient. You're in a twelve team mix league. I think you have to

be patient if you made these investments. However, I think when you get to June first is when you start to lose patience, and then it's okay to get back in there because that's a third of the season done.

Speaker 2

Yeah, and I would well said across the board talking in redraft terms, of course, for most of these guys that the reason you get into the world of stashing. My idea hopefully is that you are stashing these players in a way that they are not meant to be

right into your starting roster. They have a starting roster set and these are more bench players, because what we see is these guys come up and people make these big decisions, Hey should I cut You know, well, now you can cut Christian and Karnassia and Strand, but people like should I cut Strand? To do this, to make these moves with players that are not affecting your starting roster,

it's easier to stomach some of the early difficulties. And we've seen some of that with Mansarto, but has hit skills. They're up there, they're going to get there. Who cares about two games? Also positive, they're talking about working him

in the outfield a little bit. So stay patient if you can, and make roster moves and make room for these players in a way that they are not desperately a part of your starting lineup where you're screwed if they struggle, because guess what prospects are going to struggle a little bit early on. So let's talk about the main crew here, and we will start with Junior Camonaro, who I know we've talked a ton about a couple

notes on Junior Camonaro. He has a hit in every game in May so far, at least as I wrote my article. He also had a two run, two home run game which was on May first, which is great. Hitting three fifteen six homers in the minors so far, he has been solid. Here's one of the most interesting

things to add in. And somebody posted this, I think it was in one of our slacks or whatever, but the Rookie of the Year odds changed dramatically on Junior Camonaro today went from like twenty two hundred to twelve hundred.

That that seems very very telling. While there's been that article that's been out there about the Rays are going to hold him back, I'm gonna give you a prediction date again just for funzies here, because someone said after my Paul Schemes prediction, they said, now do Junior Camonaro. My Junior Camonaro is May twenty fourth. There's a home game, it's after a day off, that offense needs it. The Rays are future. I keep repeating myself, Yes, the Rays

may hold him back. We don't know what they're gonna do. But Camonaro continues to play really, really well. He's not striking out a bunch the homers are going. He's getting lots of hits, hitting every game in May. So I'm going to make a prediction of May twenty fourth. But pay attention to those rookie odds because why would those.

Speaker 1

Change Because on Sunday I made a point about I said, there's two guys we did the rookie odds on sportscript and on the TV show, I said, look, there's two guys you have to worry about right now whose odds have actually gone up way enormously, like off the charts.

Skeens and camon Aro both started out pretty low when they didn't make the team out of spring, odds went crazy, and I literally just talked about both of them, and literally both of them in the last twenty four hours have pushed completely back to where they opened almost So that's pretty interesting there.

Speaker 2

Bringing back up James Wood again, you got to remember, when we're doing these segments, you're gonna have guys that are going to be turned back over. So if anything, it's important to come back to them and see how they've been performing. Because James would when I talk about prospects to Stash, I do think we're getting to a more difficult range of levels of how much do you

put into these players. I believe Cameron Arow and Wood are the tippy top where you can sacrifice pieces on the roster of the guys it's a little bit tougher to do. James Wood is that player that I would do it with. He's hitting three thirty nine in the year, four homers, eight stolen bases. On May eighth, put up a two home run game. A fun fact, by the way, all four homers have come in two games so far this year that he's had, but hitting three eighty five

on the month. And if it wasn't for Jacob Young, that's you know, playing center field ceiling bases at the front of that lineup, I think he would be up there. So they got to make that soon, that move here in the very near future. But he is the only other guy that I would put into that space where I'm really going to like burn roster spots from the other two that are important as far as the stash world goes. Kobe Mayo, who we've talked about a ton.

His average is dropped down to three zho one, but he's got eleven homers, which is third in the miners right now. Which is crazy, but he has been struggling in May. He's hitting under two hundred four of his six games in May, multi strikeout performances, So I think he's going to be kind of built to like an infield injury, someone that's not in the outfield, and then a rollas Martinez has been the other big one we've been all worrying about or wondering when he's gonna come.

He has not slowed down. He's hitting two ninety four with nine homers on the year, and he's hitting two ninety two with two more homers in May. The low strikeout rate I think has been one of the biggest beneficiaries to him. And this is just about the Blue Jays making the move of like Cavin Bigio off the main roster. So once they do that, he will be up. And then finally Joe. My prospects to watch list has gotten way deeper for everybody. So these are guys to

pay attention to. It's ten deep. I'm gonna throw a couple at you. Will Warren with the Yankees, he should be the number one guy if they suffer any injury in that rotation. He's been solid. Max Munsey, yes, another Max Monsey with the A's is in Triple A. I know it's another one of them, and I wish you would go buy a.

Speaker 1

Different weather for Christmas and you already have that sweater and you go, oh.

Speaker 2

Great, Maxim, this will look good again. Maxwell Munsei. The interesting thing. They brought up Jacob Wilson, who's just drafted. He's already a Triple A. I think he would be better, but I think they'll give a shot to Max Munsey.

Speaker 1

First.

Speaker 2

Drell Hernees just suffered an injury on the eel, so they might look to him. And finally, Adrian del Castillo with the Diamondbacks. He's a catcher. I wonder if they play him in other spot. He's hitting like three p forty in a right now six home. He's been awesome. He's a guy that could get a look soon. Usually the watch guys are probably more injury based players. But those are some prospects for you guys to get in your brains. If you're gonna start stashing and making some.

Speaker 1

Moves, get them prospects in your brains. Every single Thursday with prospecting. With the Welsh, that's Chris Welsh. Maybe someday we'll get that pickax out your head and then maybe start making some better liugh decisions. All right, Welsh, we promised this yesterday on the show, and our amazing graphics professional Ethan has it for us. So Welsh and I were talking about the decline of Tim Anderson and what it looks like. Well, here's what it looks like.

Speaker 2

I'm well, dabadi baba da da body.

Speaker 1

So explain for the lay person what we're seeing here on the YouTube channel right now with this Tim Anderson Baseball Savant page.

Speaker 2

Oh yeah, So this is the visualization of one of the worst of the worst players in baseball. You don't even need to do a full breakdown to see that. All of it's about Even the bluemen are just shocked right now. His seasonal stats are bad, but over on the right hand side, whether people like it or not, these are the percentile ranks in baseball from Baseball Savant, and you'll see things like expected stats, expected batting average

that's the seventh percentile, worst percentile of the league. You'll see average exit velocity, you'll see barrel percentage, literally one of the worst. Every single thing that he does is one of the worst in baseball. It's actually astonishing to look at that list and that whole visualization there, and whether you care about baseball savon or whatever, certain things or certain stats, whatever, everything is bad. He doesn't walk, one of the worst. He strikes out too much, one

of the worst. He is one of the worst chasers in baseball. That thing is incredible. Dad Daba da.

Speaker 1

Yeah, I was from beef. Tim Anderson is terrible at baseball gen Carlo Stanton quote.

Speaker 2

That's like, it's like the Michael Scott, Michael.

Speaker 1

Jordan, Yeah, I mean Tim Anderson. Hovey Baya is also like that. That's a that's a good one too. Who's stolen more money Hovey Baya. So he really is the big winner. I think at the end of the day, some more news and notes to get through three up and three down, we'll do this quick. Confordo three for four with a dinger yesterday. He has had a great season. Kyle Bradish another a good outing for him. Didn't get the w unfortunate, but nine strikeouts and five innings one run.

Barcelo Zuna not one, but two home runs will get to the home run board in just a second. Everybody. Craig Kimbrel third blown save. Kind of mentioned the other day maybe one of these prospects has to go for another closer. Might happen, I don't know. Nick Pivetta was not good in his return five earned runs. He was unfortunately beating his brains by the Atlanta Braves. And Chris Sale and Jack Lder did more. Jack Lider thing six runs, four earned, three strikeouts. So Jack Lighter kind of welsh.

Feels like he's exactly who I thought he was, and I have the spent zero fab chasing him. I was not buying the turnout you know we had. You were, you were pretty optimistic. I feel like when it came to Jack Lder, I was very pessimistic. Well, I was optimistic because and I'm like, I don't think he is.

Speaker 2

I still actually think he's evolving. I just think it's gonna be a slow run. It's a guy that doesn't throw enough strikes more predictable.

Speaker 1

How how slow?

Speaker 2

Well, because he got he absolutely got destroyed in the first start. He was perfect in the first inning, destroyed in the second, great in the third inning, destroyed in the fourth. He's not a redraft guy. Okay, back to your point, I was optimistic there could be some value

in redraft this year. There ain't, but I do think we'll be talking about Jack Lder in a year or two, in a maybe even in like a Dylan Sees type of way, a guy that you know, you can have a game where he strikes out nine and is good, and then he has another the old Dylan Cees like from the last year or two in the White Sox was not good, was not very good at all. He might kind of be in that space. Maybe McKenzie Gore. He might be kind of like a Gore, which is

never gonna be more than streamable. But yeah, I mean I was just optimistic because like you saw massive change from him, but it ain't great.

Speaker 1

He's no Mason Miller, that's for sure. Baby. That guy's been.

Speaker 2

On the My dear good friend Justin Steele has a new podcast that he was doing with the Barstool guys and he had Mason Miller on and they told Mason Miller that he had a negative FIP and he was Mason Miller was like, I didn't even know that was possible. Like they all had this conversation and Justin Steele didn't

even know it was possible to have a negative. It's a it's a pretty good clip where Steele and Mason Miller are just laughing about having a negative because Justin was like I thought it was like E RA where it just stops at zero. It's like, he's so good it went into the negative.

Speaker 1

It's like, it's like, why why don't you take some more runs? I just take some more runs.

Speaker 2

Yeah, exactly.

Speaker 1

He's the first guy ever who can score runs for his own team wallpitching.

Speaker 2

He's a run thief.

Speaker 1

Yeah.

Speaker 2

Actually, wouldn't that be amazing to you?

Speaker 1

That's what a minus one is. That's that's why that's absurd. It's stupid, that's dumb. Is come, here's the injuries? Yeah. P Fairbanks another minor league rehab star for him. Pepio I mentioned earlier on the I L the contusion like I OL for the contusion Edward Cabrera on the fifteen day L with the right shoulder impingement. We said that was gonna happen. Brax and Garrett's gonna get the start. So Garrett in, Bradley in if they're on the way,

rewire go pick them up. Blake Snell making a minor leg rehabit start at single a on Sunday, Chas McCormick and Jose your Cueedie working their way back for the Astros. The Giants put hore So Layer in the ten day Il retroactive to May fifth with a shoulder strain, Sean Murphy working his way back, and Christian Encarnacion Strand hits the IL with the right owner styloid fracture. I've never heard of a styloid fracture. How's your styloid, by the way, Well, I don't know.

Speaker 2

I'm gonna have to get it checked out.

Speaker 1

Tennessee. I remember you sprained your styloid, but it was well, you know.

Speaker 2

Those flights and stuff like that. Your styloid can flare up a little bit.

Speaker 1

I'll tell you what. You sprained a styloid waiting to claim your seat for Southwest. You should see the anxiousness on Welsh's face during that whole deboom.

Speaker 2

Well, when I was coming back, we were we were actually going to play a football game. We just like took over this field, all of us at Fantasy Pros, and I like was sitting there. Everyone was trying to do stuff and I was waiting for the minute I could jump on to instantly upgrade my seat or try to get my thing. Then I didn't and I had to instantly upgrade. Like all I cared about on that Football Sports day was upgrading my seat on Southwest.

Speaker 1

Which and all you care about today because this Thursday is the best Bets of the Day with Joey p and the Welsh. Make sure you're using Bet three sixty five for all of your wages and wagering of all sports. Bet five bucks get one hundred and fifteen bonus best when you do, but only when you use that promo code leading off at Bet three sixty five Welsh. It's a really light slate today, and I know this comes out a little later for people too. There's a lot

of day games. So next week I've got a little audio short podcast coming up on Betting Pros where I do a look at the you know, uncle Joey looks at you know, the big board for the futures because Joey Futures is a real thing. But there are three things I just want to preview on that. The first one is Gunner Henderson al MVP at plus five hundred. Again, this award's gonna go to somebody who is on a team that's gonna be extraordinarily good with a high wind total.

I still think Julio was in this mix. I still love that Julio number getting bigger and bigger and bigger. But the Gunner Henderson one's getting smaller. Plus five hundred. It's a good time to get him. Bryce Harper plus twelve hundred. I'm pounding the table for the Phillies. You know this Welsh so I have not won but two Phillies wagers here. I love this Harper number of plus twelve. I know he is not the first or second guy on the board right now for the National League, I

still think he can get there. And Zach Wheeler National League, Cy Young plus two twenty. It's hard to see a lot of competition. When Strider went down, it kind of became open season. In these first five weeks of the season or six weeks of the season so far, Zach Wheeler has just been the guy and it seems like he's in the best spot to potentially continue to be this good. So at two to one right now, it's an interesting time to get in again. April. I don't

like to chase too much. I'm looking for value, not the guys at the top of the board necessarily, but Wheeler is one of those guys right now that just makes a lot of sense to me. Welsh, when you look at the top of the board, what do you see right now? From a Thursday betting standpoint, and you're a little more granular today, I'm a little bit more five thousand feet.

Speaker 2

We're gonna turn the bad boy around here. Oh it's on a Thursday betting. Here it is all dusty and stuff, But on a Thursday betting, we're gonna turn that hat around because we got to lock in on Thursday because there are less and some people are gonna miss out on some of these because, like you said, we've got games that are gonna be starting up right as we

get out. So my top bed of the day Cleveland and the White Sox through the first five four and a half runs, I'm going under White Socks are literally the worst in first five scoring this season. Now Cleveland is actually in the top five, but we've seen Eric Fetty kind of be a monster so far early this season. I also like Ben Lively with Cleveland, so Fetti Lively, it seems like a weird combination. Bad offense from the White Sox. I'm going under four and a half runs

in that one. Next up, I'm going back to Keaton win Who I know. Keaton Winn got lit up a little bit in his last start growing up against the Colorado Rockies. You can get his strikeouts over four and a half at minus one twenty two. This is why I like it. The Rockies have the second highest chase rate in all of baseball and the third highest chase rate against righties. Win throws lots of splitters, and I think they are going to be chasing through that sucker,

especially coming off of that bad performance. So I like Win on the strikeout number. And then I'm gonna go with the Angels through the first five. I'm gonna take the money line right around minus one ten. They got reddebt meers on the mound, so I'm gonna back read debtmers. Hopefully the Angels have got the lead through the first five. Those are my bets. I might even have one or two more. You can follow at bettingpros dot com slash

Welsh betting pro. Right there, bettingpros dot com slash Joe if you guys want to follow all of our bets. I gotta clean my hat here, but we did turn it around, so it means we mean business today.

Speaker 1

Business today, over the top bets and of course make sure you're using betting pros app download that bad boy sink your sportsbooks for free and start betting smarter, not harder. That is the best bets of the day for Thursday. Welsh, It's time to look at the home run board today, So let's get a look at that because somebody's got another one. Oh it's me. I'm at twelve. But look I keep falling down. I keep getting the home runs and I keep falling down the board because all these

other maniacs continue to just crush it. Sclarp still at the top with Pazzi both at fifteen, so I'm still three behind the leader board. Welsh is still trying to get to double digits, but he's oh so close. So Welsh, that being said, where are you going for your home run call today?

Speaker 2

I know, just it's like I get one and everybody else does, and I just keep being one off from it. I am actually gonna go against my team today. This is going to be happening here in just a second. Give me Ellie de la Cruz up against Slade CHACONI think Ellie is going to drop a big one today. So Ellie of the De La Cruzes is going to be my home run call.

Speaker 1

Ellie of the New Hampshire Dela Cruizes. I believe. Yeah, Yeah, I'm just gonna let it ride again because you know, really yeah, because I'm just a jerk this week and I got the Otani homer, I let it ride. It didn't work. I got the Sodo homer. I'm gonna try to let it ride. See how that works, see how that goes for because I know it infuriates people when I picked the same guy two days in a row, and it's gonna piss him off even more if I'm right. Again,

feels good, Welsh feels good. But one Sodo man, how good has that guy been for the Yankees? Talk about I mean, you.

Speaker 2

Want to talk about betting al al MVPs.

Speaker 1

I mean yeah, but again, but the problem is again, Judge is there, and he is a massive in more ways than one presence, But the feeling of a player going to the Yankee specifically and having such a positive impact on that team as a whole, just not not even just on the field, but even off like It is an electric situation there right now in the New York area with soda like it is crazy, Like they love this guy.

Speaker 2

I think he's leading in like every offensive County sat.

Speaker 1

They're gonna have to back up the truck old school Yankee style if they want to keep him, because he is doing everything the right way. And my goodness, the number one thing you could do right now is a new Yankee has killed the Astros, and he has killed the Astros this year, like you want to get yourself like back in the day it used to be beat the hell out of the Red Sox. You do that, Yankee fans are gonna love you. He's beating the hell out of the Astros. Yankee fans are loving this. So

it's gonna be a good time. Make sure you joined the home Run to Call contest as well over on our discord fansboros dot com slash chat. It is free to join and fun to play, So go ahead and do that, because the winner is getting that Vladimir Guerrero autographed bat And if I get it, canna break it over my leg like bo Jackson, throw it into the few.

Speaker 2

You think you could, You think you could break a bat?

Speaker 1

Of your leg without hurting myself.

Speaker 2

I think you break your siloid.

Speaker 1

I mean I could do it, like against a tree. I think I could swing it hard enough to break it.

Speaker 2

But yeah, I mean, yeah, sure if I could not, everybody I.

Speaker 1

Think is strong enough to do that. Like that's hard, but I think I could do it. I got the bat speed still. Yeah, I told you, Welsh, you get me out there on the get me out there on the batting practice. Old man can still swing the bat a little bit, still swing.

Speaker 2

In the bat. Get me out on that old batting practice and I'll do some baton.

Speaker 1

There you go. End on this note from the chat. Juan Soto is a perfect Yankee, cocky, talented and a little crazy that certainly it sounds a lot like me. Sounds a lot like me. All right, great stuff today from Welsh obviously with the Prospects stuff as always, and that's always going to be on the YouTube channel, so if you ever miss it live you want to go back and watch it again, it's up there too in its own segment. You can check that out as well. You can also follow us on all the social media

platforms too, Fantasy Pros, MLB. Yeah, that'll do. It for us, but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey Ping. We'll see you next time. Kids Tomorrow on Friday twenty k celebration, be there. Give it

Transcript source: Provided by creator in RSS feed: download file
For the best experience, listen in Metacast app for iOS or Android