MLB: Leading Off May 13th, 2024 (EP. 810)

Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Bros. MLB. This is Leading Off Live, brought to you by Bet three six five Bet five bucks get one hundred and fifty in bonus bets when you use the promo code leading Off. It's me Joey p That of course is the Welsh, and it's you, the Peanuts and the Crackerjacks. After a long Mother's Day weekend, Happy Mother's Day to all of you out there, and of course Welsh, Happy Paul Skeen's Day

Ellie we in the butt.

Hey, what's going on? Everybody? I mean, that is the all time best morning radio show ever, but Welsh Paul Skeen's debut. Let's just kick things off. We gotta start there. It was pretty much the line we were tossing around in that range. I think I said four inning, seven strike ups. I think I gave him four and two thirds. I gave him little bit of a benefit of doubt. It was fun for me. It was enjoyable. I had to go back and watch it on DVR because I

Fourteen strikeouts. I believe in that. In that crazy one.

I had goosebumps, literally, like just thinking about it, I got the goosebumps. The scheme's start was fun. He struggled with the control a little bit, a little trouble on the outside. It was funny. I think it was on the third or fourth inning he was struggling a little bit with the control and like one oh one, two, and then he dropped one in there at ninety six, and I was like, yeah, you know what, that can be effective too, buddy, Like we don't have to throw

I mean, I suppose, yeah, like when you hit a hundred and you're or you're you know, on the gun, you're hitting one hundred hundred and one, if you can just get the barrel out in front, you've got a decent opportunity whatever type of power here you are, to launch the ball. So that's gonna be a lot about you know, bat speed and contact, and he's a high contact.

Player, so yeah, probably not a huge shock.

I watched this entire game because, like you said, this line was about where I said everything I was doing all the videos. I was like, listen, this is a six to seven or eight strikeout game really, regardless of how far he goes did not think he go five. He didn't, and then the rain. But I did make some decent money parlaying and just solo betting those strikeouts. But it was an interesting performance because the crowd was electric. He wasn't because of everything we had done, the build

He ended.

If everybody wants to know that he didn't go and look yourself, thirty five percent with rate on the day, eighty four pitches, the most he'd had in the majors this year at thirty three percent CSW. His most effective pitch was the splitter fifty eight percent with rate, fastball twenty seven percent with rate. You know, good ratings across the board. Command was a little bit eh. And this just comes back down to the thing I had been saying, how deep will he be able to go into games?

Ultimately? When that will that command fix itself? Yeah? Maybe sure, but.

You know, like our guy's going to be sitting on a certain pitch, not eating at that splitter. And because he's a big strikeout guy, I think it's just going to be tough in general for him to get pass five a whole lot. But he is going to be a really good fantasy option. I think it met most of the expectations, though I will say I don't know if his trade value is more if you care about training, by the way, if it's more after the start than.

It was before.

But I felt like everything that I walked into the game, I left with the exact same breakdown, like nothing changed my thought process.

Me too, And this is why I think we said what we said, which is if you are going to sell schemes, do it before the start, Like, do it it's all if that's your thing, if it's all theoretical value. But it is going to be a lot of four and five inning starts for him over the next few months. There are gonna be strikeout totals. Like if you're in head to head points leagues where strikeouts are heavily valued,

I'm sure the first inning was a litle I'm gonna tell you this, like the crowd is electric. The first inning was explosive. It was that if anyone ever plays like MLB, the show that MLB, the show Power Fastball, where it was like you never had a chance. That's what the fastball looked like in the first inning. Then I thought stuff started settling down, Hitters started settling down,

Got to seek.

I thought you got the full package of what you're gonna get from Paul Skins this year. Maybe he's a little bit more efficient, goes a tiny bit deeper. Maybe it is a whole lot of four and one third right at five starts, but like you're gonna probably get six plus strikeouts on a nightly basis from Paul Skins. It just will it ever be Strasbourg?

Like?

Is it ever gonna be you know, four team strikeouts?

I don't know. The Pirates seem to be super babying, but it's.

Gonna be fun to watch. Does he get to ninety five? Does he get to one hundred pitches? What type of babying happens? But he's here and enjoy it.

He is enjoy the ride everybody. By the way I saw this, this is like the first question in the chat today before the show even started. So Jake's coming in hot today. Over the weekend, I traded Imanaga and I got Austin Riley. Please tell me I did a good thing by just the Riley injury of course, Well that's the only caveat now with the Riley side injury, and how long has he been dealing with the side injury, and maybe that explains the slow start. Theoretically, this is

Yeah, I agree.

I mean this is the type of trade that you're trying to make. Even August numbers, I think are the thing.

That make this field. So like, did I do the right thing?

If we start seeing the next couple starts, you know, things balance itself out. I think I think you'll feel a little bit better. Not that he's gonna get blown up or anything. He's got the Braves tonight. Maybe Riley, will you be able to get ahold of e Vanaga? But yeah, I think this is what you want, all right.

I want to know what everybody else thinks about the scheme start too, So drop your give drug, your star rating, your grades, whatever you want to do with the first scheme.

How many schemes, So it's going to five schemes, scale five scheme, scale five schemes for all the schemes.

In the window.

Nope, all these schemes does.

I will still go scroll y'all schemes?

Mother, all right? So they go four to five from Lucas on the schemes.

Actually, look, everyone went right into the skin scale.

The skin scales is a good Let's have that be our grade. Most of the time. I want to onn these headlines and I want to do this first round thing. This is really fun. So headlines from the weekend beside schemes. Brent Rooker also red hot tenth homer of the season for him. He was in the Waiwire video this week. I told everybody was like, look, I don't know what what everybody's sleeping on here. The guy hit thirty home runs last year, he's looking at three hundred on his

I know I'm completely withyest ops of any player.

By the way, over the last two weeks.

This is one of those things like I'll admit it, like when I'm just not super into a guy and then the expectations are completely flipped. Like sometimes I actually become a little bit obsessive about it. And YO, like seventeen point nine percent barrel percentage attached to a fifty percent hard hit rate. You get over fifteen percent barrel and over fifty percent hard.

To hit rate.

Boom, that is beautiful.

A two eighty five expected batting average, huge hard hit numbers, double digit walk rate. I don't think it's all going to continue. Brent Rooker's going to hit thirty homers this year, It's not a question. And now like eighties go to the way there. I know we did this on ITL the other day because I was losing my mind about Brent Rooker. I believe nine days ago he was like twenty something percent owned in CBS leagues and I think he was still in the sixties a couple days ago.

Eight guy not to be lost in the shuffle. Josh Neil or one of our draft darlings. Eleventh home run for him this weekend too. Shout out to him, said Lugo. Huge performance for him. So the strikeout tolls have been lacking, and he heard us twelve case and one run giving up on Sunday. It was against the Angels, but still he had who was in front of you?

I think I saw this stat It was the highest rpm pitch so rotations, the highest spin of a single pitch that got a strikeout all season long. It was like thirty four hundred and some change that he got on that curve ball. He throws up to thirty five hundred spin. It's the biggest spinny pitch in baseball. It's just officiously setting it up. Yeah, exactly, that's you know, baseball savant. Baseball savant. You know they're getting all the other new metrics or adding hitting metrics. Mine is the

Yet was it the uppy ups? Would you do?

Yeah?

The uppy ups, the downy downs. That's the Welsh savantin.

Verlander he bounced back to, which was good. He'd been a little rocky lately. Eight strikeouts for him against the Tigers again, you know, good opponent Zach Wheeler though, six runs, six hits, four innings, no decision against the Marlins. That's not what everybody had on their bingo card, nor Cole Reagan's, who got touched up for seven runs and six and a third. Now, people will tell me, well, you know some guys, oh and they got driven in. I don't

Yeah, I'm a little bit bothered by one thing I would I'd say we're moving away from is we're probably and I think this happens with a lot of players where it's like, all right, maybe he bounces back and he's just like a really good pitcher rest this season, But what did that first five weeks do to the like the overall value, you know what I'm saying, Like like like, yes, we could look and hey, he's awesome, but what happened early on is something that we have

Is consistency, Welsh, and he is just wildly inconsistent. I completely agree he has been wildly inconsistent. This last start, he had his average numbers just down in general, fastball down, tiny bit change up like from a Velo perspective, Cutter was down almost a mile and a half. His whiff rates haven't looked good. Hit eleven whiffs in that start off of his change up. He only had two other

Okay, well that's just going to keep.

If they stop, you know, swinging at your change up, then is your fastball going to be good enough. It's just one of these things that I'm not sure the consistency is to get there for him to be the elite of lead and listen, I'm a buyer.

I put him in a trade video.

Because it feels like a bye. His last five starts as e RA. You want to get a guess with the e ra as over last five, Oh, I bet it's like it's like six six point three to one. Yeah, so yeah, it's an interesting opportunity to buy on him, but you have to temper your expectations for that too. And and again this is the danger. We loved Michael King, we loved Cole Reagan's we love them in their place, and Michael King also a guy that has shown you at times very good. This is why they were ranked

I think I will say I do think this, like May Area is a really like interesting transitional time of players, hitters in pitchers where you know, the the highs of the season, teams are starting to adjust, pictures happening kind of the same way. I mean, I don't I don't think he's on this list here, and I don't want to go out of this show not talking about him.

But look at like Alec Manoa.

You know, Alec Manoa had an insanely effective good start this week and something we had not seen out of him in a long time.

Let me look at what the line was.

He went seven, struck out six, a decent amount of hard hit but only walked one. And then when you're looking at his savant page, he had thirty three percent with rate, fifteen whiffs on forty six pitches and that happened over only seventy eight total pitches run.

It was all really effective.

Again, this is transitional time of like hitters kind of readjusting to the length of the season, pitchers who have been pitching over the course of you know, five or six starts early on Minoa's maybe a little bit different. But we're literally in a space where over the weekend, Cole Reagan's is now stacked up a couple black and Alec Manoa just stacked up.

His greatest start of the season.

And you know, it's something to not read too much into on both sides. I'm selling on Alec Manoa, I'm buying on Reagans, But I don't think Colt Reagan's is going to get to a level of consistency where we're putting him like Tyler Glatt. We're putting him in like a Cy Young range. And that's what kind of stinks at.

Least right those of you who just watches on YouTube, is a reminder every single Thursday, we have an audio long form podcast for baseball with May with the Worm called The Cycle. It's the best podcast that isn't ours uh and only occurs, by the way, starting to heat up a little bit. So look at that. So we're

Was it this way? This was? This was mayor worm? And then I think Kelly and they just they what did picked the pick?

They they went through one, two, three one.

Do we know who one and two were?

I don't, but I can only assume that whoever had nine was probably worm because it's an oriole.

Oh okay, that's good. So that's three.

So he got a kunya. So wow, Kelly and Mayer let akunya not go one?

Interesting?

So the top three were o Tani bets Akuni again, we're splitting hairs there. Bobby Witt four, Kyle Tucker at five. It feels pretty good. But Wan Soto at six, I just feel is downright disrespectful at this point. I mean, you know, Wan Sota, by the way this year is hitting five hundred against the Astros. I just want to put that out there. Five to sixty. I think he was in against the Astros. So Wan Soto six, here's

Oh chance, it's Burns either.

It's just not chance now that that definitely was warm doing that because.

He's then Arise and Gunner Henderson and Freddie Freeman. So as far as the hitters, yeah, it feels about right. Are there any egregious people grow off the top of your head that you want to kick out? Like I want to kick the pictures out. That's the first thing I want to do. And they had a good conversation about all this, so again check it out. It was in the last episode that they did. You can go listen to it wherever, get your podcast on Fantasy Pros,

I don't know if there's anybody that doesn't need that, like is missing that is crazy egregious though I will say it's kind of interesting that Corby Carrol's not in there obviously for his performance is the issue. No, no, no, but okay, but this was a bock that was done with one month into the season and he has been completely kicked out of the first round. There's no Jordanalvarez, no Olsen slipping in there, none of the other big first basement but Carroll, Bryce Harper.

You could you could you know kind of you know, he's got nine homers so far this year. That's a guy you could, you know, at least have that conversation. I would want Soto in the top five. I think that's something at this point. He's earned that. If we're doing it, we're hot. Take, we're in there. Marcus Simeon's the other guy. I keep pount of the table for market Simmeon. Like, I just don't think he gets enough credit for how good he's been. Right, Well, who's he

Like, Like, I think if Gunner wasn't in this, I would be, uh, you know, i'd be up in arms because I think that's a really good one.

Well, Gunner definitely should be in it, and he was. It was I think it's a pretty good first round. Elle As I would just take out.

Ellie is super fascinating though, because one to point out, obviously Ellie has.

Been absolutely electric this year.

But one thing we're not talking about is Elly a lot lately because he's been stinking and everyone's quiet about it. He's hitting two sixteen in May right now. The stolen bases are there. He's gonna lead the league in stolen bases. That's happening unless he gets hurt. But he has two RBI in May. He's walked three times. He has one homer, two doubles, eight total hits, two sixteen A three ten OBP, And I get why he would get in there, especially if this is done like a week ago, so this

And then he's the guy who goes.

We all hate our lives and Corbyn Carroll is coming. He's coming back up. The power isn't there, but he doubles. He's scoring a bunch of runs.

Gorn Carroll bad enough. Corbyn Carroll was bad enough that I'm okay with him being knocked out of this first round. He was a rookie last year. He's got one year track record. I got no problem with that. Uh, here's a fun question. If Trout wasn't hurt, if we did this two weeks ago, would Trout had been in that first round oh.

Before the injury? Yeah, I think so. I think he would have been.

I think he would have justified Trout over Freddie Freeman right now, Freddie is solid and he made it at twelve. But I mean, I think if we had done this three weeks ago, before the Trout injury, I think I would.

Be sure it's only right. Well, even a little bit at the water park, like two weeks ago. I feel like, but even if it's a little bit even, it's a little bit further. I think Ellie would have been like top three or four at that point. I think Elli would have been a fascinating debate.

Yeah, fascinating. Also just for fun. Spencer Torkle sinking grads buddy first home out of the season. I told you don't drop him yet, go get him.

Oh yeah, now he's fixed, he's better.

It's all gonna be fine.

Rather than Spencers rest of the season, what I'd rather have Brent Rooker than Torsen season.

I'm not gonna argue that after sending four games, Jackson Churio came back for over two with a walk Welsh. It feels like Jackson Churio might be heading back to the farm for a little while. You know what they said in your dog that's not doing well, they send him out to the farm.

And it's okay, you're gonna be old.

Yeller, Oh yeller, feel that way. So we are at bargain basement right now in Dynasty and in Redraft? Are you buying in both?

Absolutely? I'm always buying. You give me big discounts.

On Jackson, Holiday and and Surio and everybody one named Jackson. Yeah, any but Jackson, Merrill, Uh, Corby and Carroll will just start rhyming all the give me discounts on those in Dynasty right now episode Redraft, I don't know. I mean, I think Jackson, if Jackson Turio is sent to the miners, he's going to hit the waiver wires. So I don't think there's any reason in redraft to buy. But yeah,

And you're not gonna hit well if you're in the miners.

So no, I'm not buying on Tario for redraft rest of season right now.

Speaking of hitting well of the miners, James would two more dingers on Saturday, and Louis gel had been terrific for the Yankee six shoutouts against the race on Sunday. Again, a guy I wish we were we talked more about we were curious, but we weren't invested enough.

Put him in the trade video a couple weeks ago.

Though it's like I am buying him to be not elite, elite, you know, but like, well he didn't go to the range.

You can't get rid of him. When Cole comes back in theory you go to a six man or somebody else is get involved, Like, I mean, you can't get rid of this guy. He's been terrific. Three down, Clark Schmidt. There you go, by the way, speaking of Schmidt's, how often do you get to make that transition? So Mike Schmidt's old house is up for sale outside on the Blue Line, out of the outer Philadelphia area. I saw the tour of it or whatever, the virtual tour, you know, because I'm a big real estate.

And you're gonna buy it. You're gonna buy it.

It's spectacular with that fancy pros money, with that money, what a spectacular home. This was Mike Schmidt, classy guy. Three up and three down, Brandon Nemo, you just set that up.

What are you talking about, like, give us something.

I'm just saying it was really cool.

I don't know, Oh, okay, I don't know.

I was like it was just like it was very elegant. They were chandeliers and sitting rooms in the backyard was spectacular with rolling hills into pools and stuff. It was magnificent. I don't know if all of us, combined all the peanuts and the cracker Jacks, could afford to keep that house going, but I'd like to try. I think that's an experiment we should have.

You know, we should do a be like a content house.

We should have a Fantasy pros house where we all like live there for like a years.

I think that'd be amazing tourry football season, like just one big fraternity of us hanging out and drinking beer and doing fantasy.

I was I was with you guys for four days and now called problem. Yeah, that would be a problem.

All right. Brandon Nimmo hero last night to run Homer walk off against the Braves. Love when the Mets beat the Pereieves. Julio Rodriguez too, run Homer. On Sunday, you Darvish fantastic against the Dodgers. Seven k's Let's go you Darvish. Speaking of the Dodgers on the three down Walker Bueller struggling a little bit. Three runs, five hits over three and third. Reggie Montos was good when we came back, and then he gave up five runs for earned in

So working his way back, speaking of working their way back. Just wanting to share this.

I was over.

I've been going to some of the Complex League games out here, sharing some stuff. I saw Johnny Cuato pitch the other day, going to Surprise Stadium for the Rangers. They pulled him into that jersey a little bigger than you and Cueto, and he was out there, and you want to talk. You might see him in the majors. But I watched Cuato go three innings against a complex level Padres team. He gave up a homer to a kid who had no career homers. His name was I

It was a blast from the past. So as far as Holo.

Pitch right now, I would take Bartolo Colone over half the league right now. If I needed three innings, he could go out there and do it.

Yeah, Well, him and Quota about the same body type right now.

Too, yeah, but not the same arm Bartolo Colonna. I guarantee it gets okay up the ninety I'm telling.

You, oh yeah, No, he was a Quato was eighty five, eighty five, eighty five.

Tool is like Satchel Paige. He'll be like sixty years old. He come in, he could throw three innings of.

Like those guys that won't retire either, that are kind of like they want to come back like Bartolo. And you see like Manny Ramirez be like, I'm not like I want guys to come back at like fifty five like softball looking bodies.

I want to get back to the majors.

That's right. Fit Fat Pablo, Fit fat Welsh. You know what time it is. It's time for the best bets of the day with Joey p the Welsh. Make sure you bet at bet three six five US that promo code leading off when you do, and if you have five bucks, you get one hundred and fifty in bonus bets all the time you do that. Don't forget everybody twenty one or older in Kentucky gambling problem called one hundred gambler or one hundred bets off in Iowa terms

I am gonna be playing some first fives today and we're going overs. I love to play unders, but not a lot of good value there. So we are gonna take the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres first five at four and a half.

We're going over.

That one is actually almost even money right now. Reny of Alaska's have been pretty good. Vaska has been pretty good, but I think they're going up against Dacota Hudson a lot of potential run Sannego Padres in think top eight and scoring. Colorado hasn't been there, but it's not that bad of a matchup. So I'm gonna go over for four and a half runs through the first five at almost even money minus one oh five. Next up, going against the A's in Houston. I actually like this one

And I love parlaying those two.

So I might play Minaga solo, but I'm gonna put these two together because if you do play Minaga, you're gonna have to probably do it around six and a half and that gets a little bit higher. So Yamamoto soto five k almost even money. I put a little bit more on that one.

Those my plays, that's right, Those are the best bets of the day with Joey p and the Welsh. Make sure you download the betting pros app Start betting smarter, not harder everybody and have fun and be responsible. Betting at bet three six five with the promo code leading off, Welsh, It's time to look at the home run board over the weekend and see what has changed.

Nothing.

Nothing for me, Nothing but pas He's still really good up to seventeen, starting to separate from the pack a little bit. So Bryce Propper gave me nothing, nothing from Bryce Harper, so Welsh. Instead, what I'm gonna have to do is do a little bit to homework here. I'm gonna go with a Baltimore oriole who has a sixteen hundred ops against Jose Burrios. It's Addley Rutchman. So give me Adlie Ruschmand today trolling the Burrios. Who are you going for your home run call? Today?

I'm gonna get back to my boy you mentioned him a little bit earlier, featured in the cycle artwork. Also going to be featured on my video coming up here shortly. O'Neil Cruz here he is my pick for the boy.

He's like, yeah, that's right, well, Cheezmo, that that's my boy.

That's a well fan one hundred percent.

Let me partner is oozing well, cheese mot in this picture.

He does have some cheese. Yeah, I like it.

I like that termed out and I don't like oozing, but that's gonna be my home run call of the day.

I don't know. I mean oozing chocolate sounds good, or zingla.

Oozing anything is a great name something.

That Saturday, I had antella waffles with bananas and strawberries the side of bacon. It was delicious.

And what if you ever oozed? That's been good.

From my own body. Well, I think that's a different show. But if you wanna, uh, you know what they say. If you don't, you don't use you, you don't snooze, you lose. I don't know whatever. You don't Discord, don't snooze on that Fantasy pros dot com slash chat. I'm just trying to take us out of a tailspin. That's all I'm trying to do. Folks, join our Discord Fantasybros dot com slash chat. It's free. You can go make your home run calls yourself, and of course don't forget

Is oozing confidence.

That's who we are. We're oozing confidence today. Great show, great to see everybody. We got to run, we got a meeting to get to. Oh work, this is just fun with but there is some work every now and that we have to do. But we'll be back tomorrow to do it all again. Subscribe to Fantasy Bros. MLB. Thanks for supporting us on Friday to great show. Great see all of you there. If you missed it, go

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