MLB: Leading Off July 22nd 2022 (Ep. 558)

Bueller, anyone, let's play ball. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy pros. This is leading off, brought to you by bet MGM, the King of sports Books. It's me, Joey p Joe Piezopia with me is the Welsh, and of course it's the Peanuts and the Crackerjacks and all of us hanging out talking baseball. We've got games back today. I know yesterday we had games too, but it was like, eh, whatever games. Now we've got a full slate of games tonight we can dive back into all of the props,

I thought you were gonna say just the trade deadline, but you want another, anyone you want?

I know, news is the best.

Yeah, no, I know this.

I see I see a couple of people where it's like, you'll get you know, Jeff Passing breaking news, and then three minutes later you'll get someone instead of giving that a retweet, they'll just regurgitate it in their own Johnny Roto.

Johnny Roto says, uh per sources. Come on, dude, it's like, oh, it's just it's just my favorite. I love it.

It makes me I also enjoy that.

It's you know, if you want to retweet and comment about it, sure, if you want to talk about what the fantasy implications of these players potentially moving or not moving, that's all great, Like that's good, that's what you're supposed to do. But when they live shit just like copy and paste it as though they're the ones reporting it.

It just I gotta know off air, when we get off air, I gotta know who the person that comes to mind buying.

I don't even know. I just I just saw this Ericson just sent that to me. By this is completely a secondary thing because I just before it came on, I saw somebody post something about that, and I saw Friedman's little tweet about the other thing, and I'm like, who is that? I don't know.

Well, I did see some fantasy football drama of a guy that took an article and then literally just regurgitated all the points and like he did. One thing that's beyond me, I might be getting old, is the influx of here and you know a lot of people do it that we know, but the influx of like here are the five reasons of the da da da, and then these.

Thread tweets or something.

Oh, the thread tweets is that's the algorithm of how you get people to follow you now apparently, which is funny because because what really they are called is articles. See you as you used to write an article. Now people write thread tweets instead because they can't, and they probably get more looks and views than some of the articles in some places. That's the tree.

Maybe maybe some hate looks too.

I saw this guy, I don't remember who their name is in fantish football and it was bad. It was like, really really bad where they took verbatim things in a just full unwritten article, made a thread about it, and.

It didn't go well. It didn't go well on the Is this.

The person that we're alluding to who had the other? I don't know who that is. We'll have to talk after I, like I said, I feel.

Like it is because it was kind of a little Twitter controversy yesterday, more in the fantasy football world.

But to the point though, there are.

A whole lot of whether it's articles and other thoughts or news pieces that are then regurgitated and shared as original, it gets it gets a little up there.

Here we go. Jesse's favorite thread tweet was yours about a Saw remaate?

Oh yeah, many years ago. I lost the most follows.

Familiar I lost the most followers.

I had about a sixty five thread tweet where I re there was it when the rumor of the new Saw movies were coming out with Chris Rock and I essentially wrote the script to four new Saws and I.

Did about sixty five tweets. I think I lost. I lost a lot of people that night.

My favorite is doctor Glenn just got very zen on us, he said, and then the articles now are mostly just embedded tweets, which is true. So articles have become embedded tweets, and tweet threads have become articles. Oh lord, let's just talk baseball. Let's start with Mookie Betts hitting the go ahead three run home run against the Giant. Sean Murphy the go dio or shlad go catcher for the AA clean days. Hey, SWAT's a three run danger against the Tigers.

Yeah, like Luis Castillo, Frankie Montas, they should just be rolled around the field.

You know, just nothing can happen. You know those big like air water casts that.

Happened when you break your arm or something like that. They should just put them in it now, huge full.

Body, like a cocoon.

He should just be in a full body.

Oh yeah, and then he'll come out of butterfly, come out, or he'll.

Come out looking like Wilfrid Brimley. And if you get that reference to cocoon, then we could be friends, all right. Jordan Alvarez or Jordan Alvarez whenever you want to call him. Today he had a homer also the home run of Alex Bregman. Boom. Yeah, back on the board. Let's go Aaron Judge also in another home run. He's up to thirty four, so he has not stopped. Jacob de Grom threw five innings, sixty pitches a game. Yes, we take a deep breath for now. Starts for Jacob de Grom

Let's see projections had him I think in sixty eight innings, which what would.

That be relevant? Starts?

Probably that's probably eleven starts, ten eleven starts.

Really, that's it for sixty eight for the Grom. Well, I mean that's you think it's a five inning picture, now.

Well, no, I mean six, you know, six times ten would be uh sixty and then sixty eight. You know there's another that's like eleven or twelve starts in there. So let me look, I was giving I want a benefit of the doubt that he was Jacob de Grom going seven and at you know, half innings or eight innings. Sometimes he's projected at ten bat x has sixty three innings, which I think it might have dropped just a tiny bit and steamer down to fifty seven.

So no need to even guess.

I was gonna say eleven was probably gonna be my guest anyways, but ten eleven starts as a projection, I'm with it. He felt good. We're getting him soon. I'm staying optimistic. He ain't changing my mind regardless of all the arguments. Get him out there, put him throwing one hundred, striking out nine and all you guys are gonna shut up.

This is this is me watching Jacob de gram starts for the rest of the year. Yeah, if you're watching on the YouTube, I'm looking through my fingers like it kind of look in the say every time you throw like a scar movie, you're just like like saw. I mean that, actually, this is the new saw movie. It's it's making me sit in the downstairs level of my house and watch Jacob de Gram starts.

That's the video pops up. He's like and then Jacob comes on and everyone's.

Like, oh God, God, please, I'll give you plus one point fifty on the first five innings of Jacob de Gram.

If Jacob makes it through, you get out. If Jacob de Gram gets hurt, you're done. Oh no, I.

Love the peanuts and the crackers ass because now Wilfrid Burnley has become He's all over this chat. By the way, he was forty nine years old when Cocun was made. He looked like he was one hundred and forty. Uh, that's absurd that that is true. And I'm sure it is because Walkie Pengwin never gets numbers wrong. So that's

I'll admit though the proposed trade offers are pretty wild. It is just the entire system of all teams with a major leaguer And the only reason I don't vibe with that is the Corbin money, Like it just doesn't make it. That's where I think the disconnect is here, and I think it's it's a disadvantage unless the team is completely out.

I don't think it's necessary.

Well, okay, you know, maybe think about it, like if the Mets go out and say, hey, listen, this is way too much blah blah blah, and then when they pull a trade together knowing you know what they can do that it's not you know, to look like literally seven prospects blah blah blah.

Then it looks like they got.

Even more of a win, I suppose, but I just don't see how the like the rumor, like the Yankee rumor, one is like Volpi and Domingas and literally every other prospect. If you're also taking on Corbyn's money and there's no gear.

Well, you know, the Nats are gonna try to have their cake and eat it too, and they're gonna find out in this market they can't. They're gonna have to either eat the Corbin money or get better prospect Like, you're not gonna get both. So it's either send off Corbin along with Sodall and just you're taking one prospect and some other prospects, but you're.

Getting still do it fine, You're just not gonna get seven process. You're not gonna get the seven prospects in a really good system.

Yeah, and he's gonna get traded, I'm telling you, I.

Mean percentage changed at all.

I still see by the deadline, I think it's still gonna before I don't think they're gonna wait that long. I think this is a bad situation and the longer they weigh's gonna get worse. And they're not gonna go to the off season.

With this so next week, you think he's getting traded, is what you're.

Saying, Yeah, uh huh, yes I do, or you you were at I think last week talked right. I moved I.

Moved them into the sixties.

When I'm starting to see the numbers, I think this is I'm kind of back to pure fifty to fifty. I think the off season makes the most sense with a lot of time to do it because of the ask and the extra money that's going to be added on. But all it takes is one really hyper aggressive team to jump in.

And I don't know, I would love.

For you know, like a hardcore you know, trade analyst in more insight of MLB to let us know like like how much of a return loss would there be in the off season, Like is there a perceived loss with a half a year and not buying out the deadline in the off season.

So they should trade now? Or is it still about one to one?

I think there is for I think there is, And I think the one team where it's less so is the Yankees because they've still got that Aaron Judge convert like that that's the well Aaron Judge wants too much. So we decided to go after one soda instead. That pivot I think holds water for the Yankee organization. Whereas for the Mets, it doesn't. You know, they're in it now.

I mean, I think you could be optimistic about it, and my banking on it not necessarily. I always thought like mid to late August was the possibility, and then maybe you get them for your fantasy playoffs. So I think they want him back, to think they need him back as soon as possible. I think it hit you could theorize that his return could play a major role in what they do during the trade deadline.

Uh.

The other thing though, and you have it on here, Andrew Heaney just started up a more intensive rehab assignment. He pitched five innings last night out here in Arizona in the Complex League, where he went five and he struck out eight, but he did give up a couple of homers out.

I'd like to rename rehab assignments into Hemi's.

I'd like to well, yeah, I Meansburg's and then rehabits Simon, you.

Say Strasburg for something else that's like a catastrophic just explosive. It's like, yeah, like you had Chipotle in a milkshake, then they have a Strasburg after that. That's that's what you did.

Oh it's a.

Berg but yeah, he he You know what I think. And this is again maybe maybe this is me being grumpy and stuff, but I think this is classic. Yeah, it looks like Walker Buhler says everything's gonna be fine, to give them a little bit more leverage and some kind of trade discussion for somebody for a picture. I would be like, well, we still got Walker Bueler, who we think is gonna be okay, so you know, we don't really need another starter, but they do.

If I were if I were a fantasy owner that was holding on to Walker Bueler with any hopes, I would take this like positive news and I would be looking to trade him. I'm just I don't have a lot of interest in him this year. He wasn't really pitching at an incredibly incredibly high level before he got injured either, So I would be moving off of and redrop if there's even the possibleity.

And that's the point, right, wells like he wasn't very good before the injury, So was he not good because of the injury? And if so, what makes us think that he's gonna come back healthy and better and those everything comes back in this perfect confluence of events, which I don't think is gonna happen.

There just lotstanding track records. You could go with an over four era lowess K percentage of his career. Something thing used to be a little bit worried about.

Yeah, sure, I agree with you. This is the time to trade him. This is your one shot, so did not miss your chance to this opportunity comes once in a lifetime. Yo, let's talk about this John Gray six and one over his last seven starts here a one eight one era a ten point five k per nine. So how about them apples? How about how about John Gray these last few starts looking sharp again yesterday. I'm excited about this. Well, he was one of my favorite

A few more strikeouts yesterday for that prop it was at six and a half, a pretty high number.

It was really really good yesterday, right, Yeah.

He only hit five.

Yeah, and he got pulled her on ninety four innings. He didn't get into I believe it was the seventh. They didn't let him go into a lot of ground balls, was pitching to contact, which is good. But yeah, I know, he's been phenomenal this year. He was one of those major late targets for for me and for Bogman. Almost a ten k per nine on the year so far, which is a phenomenal run. Dropped his homers a little bit, and he's got a better x FIP than his era. His ERA is just about a three and a half.

It's a good run for John Gray. He's a huge value right now.

That rotation in two years could be very good John Gray, Rocker and Lighter. That could be a really good rotation in two years. And and you know what, maybe maybe you have i mean Josh Young, you know who's missing this season. You know, maybe he comes and becomes a superstar player. I mean, they've they've got you know, they've they've shown you that they're willing to spend money, and they've got a core there of at least a major league talent for a change, and I like what Texas

I'd like them to be aggressive in a trademarket and go to the Dodgers and do The one thing I really really want in this world is to trade for Walker Bueller, so we can call them Walker Buehler Texas Range.

That's all that would that would that would be heaven.

I could have one thing, yeah, all right, if.

I could have one thing like that great Steve Martin sketch from SNL, you know that one. If I had one wish, it would be for all the children in the world to hold hands at one time and sing blah blah blah. If I had a second wish that I just continues all these like it would be for fifty million dollars paid to me monthly for the rest of my life.

God, I love Steve.

If I had a third wish, well, the first wish would be the kids, The second wish would be his money. The third wish they just keep going on it up. Sources tell somebody that multiple clubs believe the Red Sox are indecisive and they could possibly be a team they knows sellers at the deadline, and honestly, with the Cursail injury now there's a part of me that wonders if

I think the word sellers with them, this is just my opinion, is a lot smaller than what the sellers for the Nationals look like.

I don't think this.

Is a team that because when you hear it sellers are they like, oh they're gonna trade Bogart, They're gonna trade Devers. I don't think so. I think they would just trade serviceable pieces. Maybe they move off a couple pieces that would have helped them win. Now. I just don't see them making massive dramatic moves in any direction. It'd be great to see, you know, they've got some I think they've got a couple of guys they kind

I don't know if it's.

Like a big selling retooling.

Yeah, there's a good term for it. That's how I would see it.

I've been called a retool many times in my career, many many, many times. Also, here's Bob Nightingale with a funny thing. Oh Bob, oh Bob. Remember the Athletics draft to Kyleer Murray with the number one overall pick in uh, with their number one pick, excuse me, in twenty eighteen, trying to convince him to choose baseball over the NFL.

Now, that is a super fun.

I mean I would also point out, like this is fun, but you know, we can throw out some numbers for you know, like Juan Soto, like Baseball's got a little bit of money in baseball too, a little bit once won Soto gets half a billion dollars, like.

Well and and then you have the guaranteed money and how long, like you know, yeah, you can also walk after baseball most of the time, you know, yeah.

Like I don't get one of the mean stuff, but percent like you can like remember your family and you know you cannot have I mean, I'm not gonna say they're not all have horrific thoughts, but yeah.

I mean, baseball is brutal.

Actually, there was somebody, god I'm trying to remember who wasn't Des Bryan or some football player that was just talking about this and was like, hey, you know these guys, you got to get more guaranteed money. These quarterbacks have got to get more guaranteed money. Look at Sshan Watson who did and these guys, you know, these players, the

In baseball, they do it. But the toll that baseball.

Has on these guys is not even one iote of Well, there's.

Also different you know, like you know, Kylin Murray just got paid now, right, but if he had had a more serious injury last year, he wouldn't have, right, So he missed a few games. I know we're not turning this to a football show, but it is interesting because you're going to get more of these players, these big two profile star athletes. This is not going to end.

Yeah.

But also if you're running back, I think you would have been an Oakland a.

I think that also you're like a kind of a you know, even a good young player. Look at the arbitration deals, so what couldn't you get like one hundred million dollars and I know we can break that apart. I still think it's ridiculously stupid that guys are, you know, signing ten year deals for one hundred million dollars but at the age of like twenty one to twenty two, you can make one hundred million dollars in baseball and have some type of opt outs and if you play well,

It's five year starts though he'll be in his early thirties, so he probably will, don't I mean maybe physically maybe him, that's going to be tougher, but yeah, it's it's it's interesting art. I thought it was interesting tweet that he's going to make more this year than the whole Ace payroll.

I thought, I think it's a little overplaced.

Fun.

It is a cool, fun fact, and it's fun.

To be like, hey, look at the A's payroll and he would never get that money there, but a team like the Dodgers, would you know, probably end up paying. Look at the young the young stars are going to make hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of million dollars on their first time.

Like what did Drew Jones get in the signing bonus?

Do you remember what points?

Eight point one eight nine, like essentially eight point two million dollars?

Right?

Look, I know there's taxes and agents and managers and all that stuff too, but it's still pretty good for a kid.

Good money.

And then when you get to the majors and you are good player, they're going to buy out your arbitration or want to buy out your arbitration, and there's some serious money. Or even if you don't arbitration cases can put up some serious cash ten fifteen to twenty million dollars into arbitration going into free agency. I don't know, it's it's a fun, cool discussion, but I think it is very like blanketed by the way of people being like, hey, look, you got two hundred and fifty.

Isn't baseball stupid?

And it's like, now, you know, I think it'd be fun if he stayed in football. Is a super talented player and he could have got paid.

Yeah, here's a question. I know the White Sox we all thought were geniuses to lock up all these guys that they did long term, very young. Do you think looking back now three years later, that it's been still working out for them? Say, you know, like they locked up Aloja Menez, they Louise Robert, Like, you know, I threw a lot of money at their young talent to

So yeah, I mean that's the risk.

But but I don't know they're still facing still still Yeah, I think it's still I think it's still there. They're good deals all around for all of these players. Like I said, the only thing I would truly truly say is I wish that baseball would like have more player options in it in the beginning, Like these guys that sign these ten year deals. I think there should be more mutual options on both so a team, let's say, let's just for arguments, day's like Eloyman.

It doesn't work out. A team isn't.

Stuck with a guy for five years, and it completely decimates the organization. Look at a team like the Nationals that are just screwed by one contract. The Diamondbacks did it. I always recall this, The stupid Diamondbacks did it with Granky, which cost him Goldschmidt. You should have more options in these contracts instead of throwing out these ten twelve year deals.

I think I think those are bad for baseball.

You can sign them, but they should have some more outclauses on both sides.

I think it makes the game a little bit better, but you know who, You know what.

Else makes the game better. Betting on it over at bet mgm, the King of sportsbooks. Special offer for new users. Bet ten dollars to win two hundred when you bet on any game, regardless of the outcome. Sign up today, use the promo code leading off one word leading off, Download the betmgm app, or go to betmgm dot com and put in that promo code leading off. Today, we've got Lucas Gilito at four and a half for the strikeouts. Give me the over on that against Cleveland. Kevin Gosman

I like that one. I love the one.

Number plus one forty. You don't see that very often autodays like that.

No, in ty Frans, that's a good bet. I like that one. That's just a good just throw it out there.

It's great money on love the Otani one, even though it's a big number, simply because it's Atlanta.

You know, this is one that he can easily get into.

Two others that I highlighted, I usually don't take unders, and you know, to be Frank, I would probably say usually my understrikeout ones are are dicey, but there's a number on FanDuel eight and a half strikeouts for Charlie Morton today because because because at the end of the day, the I believe it's up against the Angels. Yeah, the Angels. The Angels are number one strikeout team in baseball, So I get why that number is there. But that's a

Yeah, Morton's been shaky again lately too.

He had a rough starting nine strikeouts.

That's tough. That's a tough selle because he's got to go you know, seven innings probably to get that. I don't know if that's in the cards for him right now. I don't know.

We shall see.

I'm with you on that under for sure, all right. Starting pictures tonight on DK got Gospel at nine point one. You've got Sure's are a ten point four Otania just nine K. I like that one. I like Otani and Gosman is appairing tonight. Otherwise you got to pay up for Burns and Sures or who are expensive. The cheap guy tonight is Lucas Giolito at seven point eight. There's a huge game here for the White Sox. They need to, you know, water get off the pod here in this

Oh, it's go time, Like you said, it is go time. They've got You're coming out the streak. You can't give any excuses. You can't drop us a big series to the Astros and embarrassing fashion. I think it'll be very, very telling the future of the decisions they make. But my home run call, I'm gonna go Paul gold Schmidt. I went with my total base numbers coming off that All Star Game. Let's get a big fly for Paul Goldschmidt and get going here.

You have it all right, everybody, have a great weekend, enjoy your baseball. We'll be back again Monday to do it all again. That'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids at the