Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB.
It is me Joey b Joe Pi's Appia that of course is the Welsh.
And today we've got.
A special audio only version of the MLB podcast over at Fantasy Pros. We're going to be talking about the MLB Draft that happened this weekend. And of course who better at talk about this than the Welsh because he is the host of Prospect One. He has gotten thrown out of more Arizona Fall League bars then I don't know some prospects that have had maybe Brett Laurie and the Welsh. Those are the two guys who have been thrown out of the most AFL bars in their life.
And we're Josh Hamilton maybe too lightly bring up Josh Hamilton also too. Of course I was actually thrown out. I was thrown out of an AFL stadium during COVID year. Well, I was like a team threw me out while the other team let me in. That's a fun restrictions and whatever. This guy was like who are you and I was like I'm the.
Welsh and he's like, get at it.
Here almost verbatim on how it happened. But yes, I'm very excited. I have done tons of coverage talk with James Anderson on my Prospect one show I was doing draft coverage for CBS. These guys are imprinted in my brain and I have already stayed up multiple nights Joe almost past two am making sure I have over seventy five of these guys' rank for Fantasy so I am more and well prepared. But there's a lot of good and fun stuff to talk about with these dudes.
If you're a Dynasty player, you should be following the Welsho on Twitter.
It is at the Welsh.
You should have absolutely be checking our Dynasty rankings over Fantasy pros, and also go subscribe to Prospect one because that is a heck of a show here and Welsh does a great job. Let's talk about the Pirates with the number one pick, Paul Skeens, your boy from LSU, dominant college pitcher.
There isn't too much.
To say here except that, look, I mean, if you're the Pittsburgh Pirates and you want to take a shot on who could be the guy who makes it to the big leagues very quickly. We've seen these college pitchers have a quicker path he was brilliant at LSU, brilliant the College World Series, striking out everybody, and he has got certainly big, giant upside at the major league level. So schemes, your evaluation, where he landed, What do you think about him?
Yeah, we almost didn't think it was gonna happen. There were lots of rumors that he was locked to Washington, the Pirates might cut a deal. At the end of the day, kind of everybody did right. The best top five players went in the top five, maybe a little
bit of a different order. You know, for fantasy. I'm really a very big dealing cruise guy, but you can't go wrong with Paul Skeins, and I think in different formats you could justify him being the number one first year player guy points league A points pitchers makes sense, doesn't walk big strikeouts. Even in maybe deeper leagues where pitching is really held tightly, you could look at it. The problem is pitching in fantasy is kind of a problem.
But you're looking at a guy fifteen point three k per nine last year, struck out two hundred and nine with a sub to era we had Lance Brosdowski. I mentioned this in some other places. But he did an awesome breakdown where he was able to give us some underlying things we can't get in other places. Drive line stuff plus numbers had a one thirty two on his fastball. Stuff plus one hundred is the median average, so one
thirty two means thirty two percent better than average. One thirty two stuff plus on his fastball, one twenty two on his slider. His fastball touches one hundred and two. He sits around ninety ninety nine and commands it better than any other guy. Also attacks the zone. His slider had a sixty six percent swinging with miss rate last year in college, and fifty six percent on his change up, which hits around eighty eight, probably because at fastball is
so dominant. Here's the deal. One of the best pitchers we've seen in college and in the prospect world. He's immediately going into my number one pitching prospect on my fantasy board. He can come up sooner rather than later. But he has a pitching prospect which makes him dangerous. But he's a top three first year player guy in any regard in fantasy, regardless of him being a pitcher.
Yeah.
Well, the college pitchers usually I feel much better about They tend to be a little bit more.
It's just the end of all.
He pitched a lot in games. That's what people were worried about Joe one hundred and twenty. Every single outing that has worried about the usage on his arm. But I'm not going to focus on that.
Understand me.
So the thing when I watch Skeen's pitch is, you know, big legged guy, you know, good, powerful leg driven sort of situation there where you look at the delivery and watching him pitch, the delivery is very easy. It's not a guy like I'm you see, some guys like Michael Kopek always looked like he was giving everything he had to get the.
Ball up to one hundred and one miles an hour. Skeen doesn't look like that.
Skeens just kind of roars back and he's just firing balls at you. And it's a very simple delivery that he's got, which I also think is really interesting too. There's not a lot of extra movement here, very simple to home plate.
You mentioned the control has been very good.
But to me, I look at that and I don't see a lot of issues where I'm looking at him mechanically, and I'm worried about him breaking down early in his career. And some pitchers you do, you do look at them, and you look at the track record of the usage and you get concerned.
One of the things that's interesting about what you're saying just really quickly on him is he has an kind of abnormal extension on how he throws. And that extension it looks more similar to Bruce dark gaderol Hazu's Lozardo. But what happened is this change when he went from Air Force to LSU and in that change he added velo a ton. He added over five miles per hour on his slider in this new way that he's throwing. So this is, though it's not a baseball optimized extension
of how he throws, it has optimized him. He does make it look easy. It is repeatable, and he's a guy to bet on and that's what, like you said, everything works in a way that is optimized to the fullest, and to see those big changes, he just kind of want to bet on it. And you also know this arm is going to be in the major sooner rather than later.
All right, let's talk about the number two pick. Here to the Washington Nationals outfielder Dylan Cruz. Some people thought he might go number one overall ended up being Schiens instead. People said that Cruz might not want to sign with Pittsburgh or may want to make them pay way over slot. He slash four oh five, five forty five, six eighty five with more walks than K's and that is a tough thing to do for any young hitter. But another ls you gem here that team was absolutely loaded. So
let's talk about Dylan Cruz. The upside clearly a very high level grade he gets on a lot of things, especially that hit grade looking at seventy along with the power tools.
So what's your evaluation of Cruz?
You know, funny enough, there's not going to be an agreement. I don't think on the first year player in a good way. There are three incredibly top heavy guys that people are going to value, but people are going to do it differently. I know some people have talked to James Anderson at REALUIR. He likes White Langford because the
hit tool is viewed around sixty much bigger. Power had a better slugging percentage than Cruise and runs a little bit Cruise didn't really run a little a ton in college, which you kind of wish he would a little bit more because he only still six bases. He could steal more. But I'm Dylan Cruse. Some will have Sciens, some will have Langford. I'm Dylan Cruz. Nobody barrows up the ball like him. He had a fascinating ninety five point seven
average exit velocity. That's the average on the ball major League. That's usually around ninety or so. He barrels up the ball better than anybody makes consistent contact. Is hitting opposite field stuff one hundred and seven miles per hour more so, it is optimized swing, pitch recognition, barreling. He doesn't strike out, he walks. This is a complete package. I think the
floor is high. He could just be a twenty five homer hitter, maybe ten to fifteen stolen bases while hitting three hundred or I think he could go even higher and he could be a guy that hits thirty homers, steals twenty bases, hits over three hundred, one hundred and hundred type of guy, second first round talent. I'm betting on Dylan Cruiz because I think the floor is immense. So he's my number one first year player.
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Check out fnimal and experience more and now back to the action. Yeah, I don't I don't blame you for thinking that too. It's funny when you look at his swing too. I would say a smaller version of Paul Goldschmidt in the sense that he's sort of get he does get lower, right, He's a little bit yeah, but you know he's not He's not as big as Goldschmid, you know, standing there at the play in terms of a timidation factor, but in terms of the way he follows through with the two hands of the bat.
Some of that.
Yeah, that that long center field power that he seems to have to when you watch him, you see him hit some of these balls where it's going out there, you know, and that's one of those rare things. You don't see a lot of guys who have that middle of the field power, and usually it comes from a guy who's that really you know, strong contact skills, but strong legs and is able to really drive the ball out there to dead center field.
That's a very.
Astute catch on your part, because I haven't heard people talk about it I have.
I put the.
Comp in before Enosarus and I did a look and actually this comp came up and I had said I kind of like him to Brian Reynolds. Brian Reynolds has similar max evs of one twelve. He had an almost ninety two average exit velocity on the lead year this year. You know, Homer's da da da, but Dylan Cruz is not. I'm trying to mash the ball, which is just like Paul Goldschmith. Paul Goldschmid is a doubles all all fields contact type of guy and where.
You pitch it.
And that was one of the things I always loved when I watched Goldschmidt early in his career. He was one of those things like you throw down the middle, he's going to hit it right back up the middle of it.
And he's not trying to hit homers. He's not trying to pull the ball and cruises the exact same way. So that's in a stute catch on your part because he is willing and trust his barreling to put the ball anywhere it's And that's kind of where the question is like what will that power end up looking like? But I'm willing to make the bet and take the safety and cruise where I understand some might want Langford for the power.
Well, when you're looking at the rest of the top ten, who stands out to you from this draft here?
Well, I mean White Langford obviously is going to be one of the bigger safer tools. He's going to be in the top three when you're looking at the top ten of what was drafted. It's actually gonna be really weird because the number six overall pick, Jacob Wilson from GCU, people are gonna want to push him up. I have him down near the twenties of my first year player. He's a sixty to sixty five hit tool grade, but he has absolutely no power, eighty three average exit velocity,
his max was one oh two in college. He just doesn't He actually wanted a funny little comp It's kind of like Luisa Rise high batting average, doesn't steal bases, doesn't hit for power, can score runs, and he's with the A's. So that's gonna be one of those guys I'm gonna put down of the players that we're taking on the top ten. Though, high school pitching is dangerous, but I love Noble Meyer, six foot five high school pitcher taken by the Marlins. Huge fastball, can hit triple digits,
power slider. They took the best high school righty and the high school lefty and Thomas White later, and they're a great organization to develop pitching. It's very dangerous to make bets, especially in fantasy, on high school pitchers. But if he falls, especially like out of a first round, I really like noble Meyer. I think he could be phenomenal. But there's a lot actually more interesting talent Joe in players that weren't taken in the top ten for fantasy.
As a matter of fact, the second half of my top ten fantasy ranks did not go inside the top ten of the actual MLB draft.
Well, that's always the thing too.
You know, whenever we see high school players go, you know, the path to the major leagues is longer.
It's more.
Downside ridden as well, because not only the injuries, but development, the maturity level. There's so many things can go wrong with an eighteen year old kid as opposed to a twenty one or twenty two year old kid who's going into professional baseball. And it's if you chart it, you look at the success level, especially for pitchers, it's far less. But you know, sometimes these organizations still want to go
down that well. You know, when I was looking at White Langford, to me, the first guy here reminded me right away it's a cop from the older days when the nineties. But Tim Salmon is the guy that stood out to me. Outfielder for the old California Angels and then Los Angeles Angels. If Tim Salmon understood launch angle, I think you would be White Langford.
That's what I see. Yeah, Wilangford bulked up.
He's I think a little bit smart.
Funny fun fact was.
A big guy like Salmon was one of these bigger guys too. But watching them, as soon as he comes to the play, the first thing I thought was, man, he reminds me of Tim Salmon.
And look, Tim Salmon.
Had a really good major league career and he was he was an All Star player. He was an important piece of those good Angel teams around that, you know, early two thousands when they had their run to the World Series and they beat the San Francisco Giants. But to me, if you're gonna put a comp on a kid, that's the one that makes sense.
For the The fun fact is actually worked with Tim Samon. I did a voiceover session with him, had his email and stuff, and he was a great guy. You know, White Langford six foot one, he's a big, bulky guy. Also was able to cut his strikeouts down. Rangers are ecstatic about it, and that's why he's kind of in the top ten. But like I was saying before, you know out, I love Noble Meyer of the top ten picks that was taken, also like reht Louder command pitcher
for the Reds. But there are three guys that were outside the top ten that are inside my top ten and first year player and those three players are Chase Davis, who went to the Saint Louis Cardinals, Matt Shaw, who went to the Chicago Cubs, and Tommy Troy, who went to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Chase Davis might have one of the most beautiful swings in this draft, one of the most projectable hit tools. Doesn't run quite enough, but hits the ball really, really hard, and he's like my number six.
Matt Shaw is a big match on Tommy Troy. Actually very similar. They both steal bases. Tommy Troy was seventeen seventeen homer stolen base. They both hit the ball really hard, they both don't strike out a bunch of middle infielders, and they're going to the Cubs and Diamondbacks, which I really love. Those guys are inside my top eight and those guys went respectively, twelve and thirteen. Tommy Troy went to the Diamondbacks at twelve and Matt Shaw at thirteen.
Fun fact, Tommy Troy was actually listed as a short stop as well as Matt Shaw, where they both played some second base and third base. Those are gonna be great fantasy assets because there's big floor stolen base five tool potential. Yet people might overlook them because they didn't go in the top ten of the actual draft.
Let's run through those top ten of yours right now that you've got. So if you're heading into you know, the offseason here in the dynasty leagues and you're looking at the rookie draft, what does this class in terms of the top ten Welsh prospects look like?
Yeah, because we're trying to decipher this for fantasy and not just like what you know happen right.
We want guys who are going to make an impact the next two to three years, not the next five to six years, because that is a long time to wait sometimes for a lot of places. And granted, we are getting these guys who get up to the big leagues now in two years, who are you know, eighteen nineteen years old, And we're seeing these guys jump from A ball to Double A in the same year and their rookies in their first season in professional baseball. So
it's it's incredible the pace these guys are at. And it's because they're getting better instruction, they're playing year round.
They're also you know, going.
Through these development, especially at the college level, such a more competitive game than it was even ten fifteen years ago with some of these prospects that are coming through there. So I think there's every reason to be excited about some of these younger prospects, the guys who are straight out of high school. But at the same time, we're talking fantasy. We want guys that can help our teams win sooner than later. But what does that top ten board look like for you?
Yeah, and I'll tell you my fantasy lists are built around three years, but I also look at it from full dynasty, so I value I will value younger guys still very high. But I'm going to give you a cave about the end. I'll throw a couple of players if you want to excuse the high school players. So here's my top ten in first year player Dylan Cruz, White Langford, Paul Skins. That's the top three that is
a tier in itself. The next tier of value is Max Clark, who is a true five tool player, huge speed, good contact, Quadzilla call him hardest working guy in this draft, optimized player high school to the Tigers. He's number four.
Walker Jenkins with big powers number five. But even though I put them in a tier, you could justify for just what you said, proximity wise, you might want to take the college guys over high school because number six, seven, and eight on my list are Chase Davis, Matt Shaw, and Tommy Troy. I wouldn't argue if you wanted them
over the high school players. Number nine and ten, against my better judgment, are pitchers Noble Meyer at the high school guy and Rhet Lauder out of Wake Forest, who's phenomenal, incredible change up, big command. But I will give you these last little tidbits. If you didn't want to mess around with noble Meyer, you want guys to help you now, you should look at Enrique Bradfield, fastest player in the draft at a Vanderbilt going to Baltimore, who absolutely does
an incredible job with these players. He just needs to add power to be elite. Brock Wilkin went to Milwaukee. He's my number thirteen prospect, huge power, walks, doesn't strike out, maybe the biggest power in this draft. That's a guy that you could take a look at. And Braden Taylor, who was a shortstop to Tampa Bay. Those are three college guys that you could look at that could be
top ten. If you're not going to value either a pitching or some of those high school But I will tell you there is crazy good value in the second
and third round of first year player. So pay attention because there is a lot of production to be had because we saw a college uptick in value in the draft where more college guys were going than ever before over some of thesehigh school players, which means proximity, and that's kind of what we're looking at with fantasy outside of just the long term value.
I'm glad you brought up Max Clark because I like him a lot. He has incredible batspeed. He again Harper esque. You know when you look at the way Bryce Harper swings, the way way Bryce Harper comes down on the baseball, follows through the power and balance of the legs in the lower half too.
When you watch Max Clark hit, he's got that same thing.
You could tell this kid grew up watching a lot of Bryce Harper, Like there's just no way he didn't. I'm not saying he's a carbon copy. He's a little smaller than Harper, but physically speaking, very strong, especially for his age. I mean, this is a kid who goes to the gym. As you said, like you could tell
there's power, their strength there. But to me it's also you know, he keeps the hands back, he comes through the ball, and then you know, watching highlights, if he gets fooled, he's got such good balance.
There's a couple of times I'm watching some.
Of the highlights of him, you'll see him get full of the pitch and he'll end up hitting a single to left field.
I'm gonna interrupt him. I think it's so incredible for him because, look, young hitter.
You are doing a very good job. Because something I noted on CBS, I noted everywhere is just what you said that I find interesting about him is he's a smart enough player. And I don't know what it is because you're you're watching highlighted video. Sometimes if it is adjustment live to the pitch or pre pitch approach, but exactly what you said is so smart that I have seen him do a bunch. Is he can spray the ball to the opposite field, he can come across his body.
Sometimes he can go heavy pull where his swing gets more uppity and he's pulling, or he can shorten his swing for more doubles power down left center. So those are that's kind of a Corbyn Carroll esque thing. I don't think he's anything like Corby Carroll, but I think he's just start enough hitter that he more likes those adjustments.
He's more like Harper physically speaking in terms of his approach. Oh, he's got a little at swag too, like which I really like. I like it a lot. He's got a lot of splag, a lot of bravado when you watch him play. But also so like I said, that's a key thing for young player. It's like, you know, don't always watch the balls that he hits out of the ballpark. Show me the app bats where he gets full and still you know, hits a double in the left field
gap opo. That impresses me about a young hitter. But in terms of physically speaking to eventually, this guy as he grows into frame could be a really good player because he's because he's got good speed too obviously as well, but there's power, there's balance in the swing, good hands,
incredible bat speed. I'm glad you brought up Clark because that, to me is the guy that as I'm watching more and more of him, the more I like And look, we try to just give you a little taste of what this first round was here for the minor league prospects that are now going to hopefully sign with all these major league teams.
We shall see what happens here.
But to stay on top of all that, make sure you follow the Welsh on Twitter, a is at the Welsh. Checkout our Dynasty prospect rankings that are gonna be up there on fantasypros dot com. But also, you know, I'm telling you a subscribe to the Prospect One podcast because that is a great way to stay on top of these guys. Some you'll see in the Arizona Fall League
this year. Welsh will have video of them, will have interviews a little of them as well, So it's a great opportunity to get to know these prospects better and how they're going to eventually make their way into your fantasy lineup.
So great stuff.
As always, we'll be back again on Friday, Bogman and I will be doing leading off while Welsh takes a little vak with the kiddos, and we'll be back again Monday as usual and leading off.
So thanks for joining us. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.
Kids.
My friendos