Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB.
This is Leading Off Live, brought to you by Bet three six five Bet five bucks, get one hundred and fifty and bonus bets when you do with the promo code leading off, it's me Joey p that's the Welsh and it's not the NFL Draft right now. We're taking a break from that gold. I try to keep my
voice nice and calm today. No angry Joe today because I got another five hours later tonight of NFL Draft coverage on our main channel on Fantasy Pros from six to midnight, which is pretty much how thor Nystrom was yesterday when JJ McCarthy got drafted by the Vikings. But Welsh again, the betting gods giveth and the betting gods taketh away. After a nine to oh day one in five Boo terrible of got rained out in another one.
But there's a lot of rookie stuff going on. You did the rookie stuff yesterday with the prospecting, but we've got even more rookie news, so I'm excited to get to that.
But let's start with the Dodgers.
Shell we because MOOKI bets two for three, his six stolen base already of the month, Freddie Freeman two for three with an RBI double, and of course Yamamoto, who has certainly turned things around. So the I think the concerns and the first few outings for Yamamoto I think are definitely subsided. Now seven strikeouts, six shutout innings. What do you think of the Dodgers performance against the Nats?
Oh, the Dodgers are good.
Breaking news is the Dodgers are a pretty good team with Mooki, bets and Otani and everything like that. Yeah, I think the bigger focal point I come back to is Yamamoto, who, by the way, almost had his head taken off. We had a one to oh five off of Vetti. Rosario goes straight at him and he caught it, and then they brought the trainers out after it to be like are you good, because everyone was like, holy crap. Yamamoto's reflexes, all that yoga and whatever he does out
there is pretty solid. But to your point, getting back to, like, you know, that first first series, with some of those blow ups, there were some major concerns from a lot of people. Though he is stabilized now almost thirty two percent K percentage, which is top ten percentile in the league, with a five percent walk percentage that Friends with the Map is right around a twenty six percent K minus walk percentage, which is phenomenal. ERA and expected ERA are
like just about in the same general vicinity. I kind of think he's just still getting going. You know, he is still getting rocking. He's got every single pitch he throws over twenty percent with rate, and his other two besides his four seam have a thirty six percent with rate. Those are great numbers with a great offense behind.
He's stabilizing.
Maybe he's not going to be like, oh, the top you know, seven overall starting pitcher, and you know, he was really getting inflated in drafts. But I actually think there's a decent opportunity he might return relative value to where he was drafted. You know, as they all keep falling off. You know, you got him at SP fifteen, he's going to inversely be SP ten, and that'll be okay because there's no pictures left well survivor for pictures right now.
You start chopping off the top, you know, you know that when Strider's out and Cole's out, and the head of the beast is out, it's easy to move up the chain. Here's an interesting one from Jerry. Somebody offered me Trout for Yamamoto. Should I accept?
Oh?
This is a doozy.
A lot of this has to do with format, has to do with roster construction.
Two And do you have any other pitchers?
Well, that's the thing, Jerry, if you have, I mean this is for Jerry or for anybody. If you have a great stable of pitchers and you need the offense, sure, I think this is a very good trade. If it's the inverse, I think you sit there and you go, look, you know, I don't have a lot of good starting pitching is as great as Mike Trout is. There's some risk on the back end, just like there's risk in the back end of the season with Yamamoto. I think
we can agree on that. So I think this is a fair trade at the very least, just in a vacuum.
What do you think?
Yeah, I lean Trout. I lean Trout like in a vacuum. But if you want to weigh this to like your own personal team needs, yeah, absolutely, Like if you because
he got offered Trout for his Yamamoto. Right, So yes, you know, if you maybe you hit on you got like you know, some cutter Crawfords or bing out the back of rotation Tanner Hawcks, and you just had like you've hit on a bunch of those Jared Jones, and you have the flexibility, and you have the kahonas to move a starting pitcher and and actually say the words I have sp depth, which is a crazy.
Thing to say.
Right now, I want Trout in a nutshell because, like I think, even though I've been out here being like, hey, you know, if you are a worry wart about Trout and the injuries and stuff, you can move him. But I want to tell him for tippy tippy top, I think Trout. I mean, he's easily pacing over forty homers.
I think he can put up one.
Hundred fifty four and seventy one r The.
Rbs are embarrassing, but like like I think the fear people are like, he's not going to play one hundred games. Me if I get one hundred and thirty out of him and I miss even some of those, I still think that's okay. And I still think those are probably top two less.
So I am still it's less okay when there's playoffs, it's it's okay. And maybe yes, But that's why I meant in the beginning when I said format has a lot to do with this deal.
And that's the thing.
Like deals like that especial, you just don't happen in vacuums. It's just not the way you can evaluate the way. Didn't get a shout out on your draft last night. You guys did the Spaceball's reference speaking of vacuums, and Mega made a plus a plus on the Mega maid. Wait Thoor brought that up, and like, I saw this smile on your face, and I was like, Joe is waiting to make a suck to blow comment and I wasn't going to And then he brought you I could tell you, and I was like, well, now I have
no choice. Also, I think of all the things I called, a lot of people had different opinions of their favorite thing that I called Eric Brown last night.
I called him mister peanut. I called him, you know, children's physician.
But I have thought that the best of all the jabs that I threw at him was clearly uh the groom at a Florida swamp wedding.
That was my favorite one that was had top hat and he had the shirt. The dress up shirt thing that's going on in class. It's a classic leading off, a bit to be honest, dress.
Well if you don't see nothing yet, because Thor and Derek Tonight have matching outfits.
So for Night to make another Spaceball's reference, please we'll try.
Justin Verlander didn't give up a run in four and a third inning, seven strikeouts and no decision against the Cubbies. Luis Castillo strikeout six, six innings, two run ball, So Castillo Verlander very much on track. A little closing time some fellow named Mason Miller, who I just looked. He's still not even eighty percent rostered on CBS. I don't understand what's going on here.
A point leagues points leagues don't like super value closers.
It'd be a but some overvalue them. It doesn't matter. All I know is four out save. His era is point is one five nine, the whip is point nine to seven. You have twenty three strikeouts and four walks. That's better than some starters right now, except Lugo would kill for that strikeout to walk. Ratio over eleven innings, Okay, I don't care. Hector nerris another for him. We talked about him, you know, and said, okay, it seems to
be going. He was in my Waiver Wire video. If he missed, you can go watch it on the channel or you have our weekly Waiver Wire video. And Andres Muno's good outing from him, which he kind of needed. I feel like, scoreless ninth innings, so that's good for him. Anything else in terms of the closers that was worth noting yesterday from what you saw.
No, I mean, I think you nailed them.
One thing it was funny was I saw Mason Miller talking and they're asking if he felt the difference between throwing like a hundred or one hundred and two or one oh one and one oh.
Two, and he was just like, no, it feels about the same.
And I'm like, yeah, it probably feels just like a cannon, like an absolute cannon shot out, but I love the idea. And then he said, the only time I really notice is the batter's reaction. And then I might be like, oh, I might have threw that one a little bit harder, like you know, one oh three, But yeah, I think the closing time. We've kind of hit full throttle here.
Just going back to the Diamondbacks as well. Just if people happen to have gotten rid of Paul sea Waald, you know him rehabbing back, he should be back and instituted instantly. So Kevin Ginkle, I think has a very very short timeline. Now the clock is ticking for no more saves.
Very if you went full Ginkle, you're hurting a little right now. Aron has a question. Aaron wants to know low Perfido gonna get called up soon?
Worth holding? I say, yes, he is worth holding.
I think that when the guy in front of you is hitting zero point zero six y five, there's a good chance you're going to get the call sooner then later.
Welsh, you can check out my article, but I mean I'll just say yeah, I think it's I think it's coming soon. It's funny because in my top ten Prospects to Stash article and we have a video. I don't think we talked about Looper Fido yesterday, but when I was doing the article, I was kind of like, tell me, I.
Say low Perfido, you say lou Perfido, and I feel like that's a guy named lou last name Perfido.
When you say it every it's like.
An Italian thing. You get excited about this Italian guy.
That's hey, it's Loop Perffito. You the way it was going on.
But I was ready to kind of like be a little bit dismissive. I will say he had from like I think April sixteenth down to April twenty fourth, he had dropped his average from three thirty three down to two fifty six. His strikeout rate was over thirty two percent, And then that day I actually had to go and update my article because then he hit two homers.
He smashed two homers.
The negatives are the strikeout rate and I think some bad swings that are going to come in the positive huge barrel numbers in triple A and massive homers. And he's been working at first base, so he is like I think, I think I have him at four or five in the Stash article, like I think the talent talent players are above him, but he actually might have
one of the closest timelines. I don't think he's a must add in every single capacity because like I said, I think there could be some batting average issues.
But he does say he's a pretty.
Incredible talent and working at first base is telling because you know, we said a Bray News he's done.
I think they'll keep him around to just you know, morale.
I think I think he's DF eight. I think they're going to just let him go period.
Thanks.
Oh yeah, oh, and.
He'll catch on somewhere else. Somebody will sign him somewhere else this year. I don't know who likes going to bring him back, you know what, maybe, but somebody will because there will be another injury and somebody will try to give him a shot. But he is not long for the Astros. It's not happening, all right. Here's some fun stuff. Alex Korra said that Synathine Rafaela is now the everyday shortstop, so Welsh was way ahead of the curve on that. Also, the Astros plan to demote JP France,
No surprise there. We talked about that earlier this week and they did just indeed do that now. Rookie lookie is some busy stuff here. Jack Lighter eight ks six shoutout innings. So he is the king of Triple A right now. We'll see if he gets another shot at some point. But with Max Scherzer's imminent return, it might take some doing. Pete crow Armstrong got called up yesterday. We gave him the big salute. He had a two run homer, big moment for him. Now he's not a
big power guy, peekrow Armstrong. Would you make of this debut for him?
Yeah, I mean that's never been what he's been built with. Its contact, its average r like, that's going to be his play.
He can run some. The only problem with it because I used to be a.
Pretty big defender of Pete crow Armstrong because everybody hated the bat, and it's like, listen, you know what he does. Even if he's a hitting across his body, he's getting a lot of doubles.
He's going to have some homers he can steal.
He might not be, you know, this incredible, awesome, high high counting stats guy, but he could walk himself into like a fifteen to fifteen year But then the bat regress and it continued to regress, and I kept hearing just bad things about the bat and how far behind it is and that no.
Power was really developing. So I would temper some of it.
The only plus is he's not going to be losing a job anytime soon, because Bellinger with that fractured rib, is going to be out, you know, quite a while, and he's a great defender Pete crow is. So I'm open to it, but I don't think it's a powerplay.
Even though he hit that first homer. I'd love for him to hit higher in the lineup, but I think hitting lower in the lineup with little power projection, I think it's it's got to be like a pretty barren format that I'm going to be picking up Pete Krower. I don't mean to be like super dismissive about him, but it had to be kind of barren for me.
Well, speaking of dismissive, you were dismissive of Simeon Woods Richardson. He gave up two runs on seven hits and five innings. Now it was against the White Sox, but it was six strikeouts, one walk. So is this a trap where everybody's going to put some fab on Simeon was retridsent and be disappointed in two weeks.
Yeah, this is the Jack Meme trap. Absolutely.
The let's not discount how bad the White Sox are. They are the worst, you know how We're like, look at the eight. No White Sox the worst right now, so I think there has to be It's like going It's like the metric thing, you know, going from uh and what is the thing I'm trying to say, the the equation the help me, Joe, help me the metric to to pay we have to do an analysis of white Sox runs versus what real team runs are.
I'm breaking here on a Friday, Joe.
I know, I was. I was hoping there was a Welshism coming. So that's what I was.
Trying to avoid it. I was trying to say all the things brain.
I'm trying to exasperate the Welshis and I wanted it to happen. I was, I was manifesting it and it didn't quite happen. So even for equivalency, is that what you're looking for is that it does.
It doesn't mean white Sox stink. It doesn't matter.
What you do against a White Sox is not what you're gonna do against other teams.
That's the big thing.
Curve is what you're talking about. Sure, it's a sliding skin.
Trouble tub with trouble with the words trouble.
With the curve.
That's that Pironi's disease, the trouble with the curve. Poni Paroni say, yeah, see those commercials for the Pironi's disease. They're on all the time on all the TV channels for all.
I'm hungry, Paroni. Sounds like a good sandwich.
Uh, it's not quite a sandwich. Those are you in the chat? You know what I'm talking about there? All right, let's get to uh Padres prospect Leo Dallas Devrees?
Uh to Leo Dibries?
Is it just Devrees? Okay?
Leo Dibris, Yeah, all right, Leo.
No, I want to say Leo Dallas because that's.
You can say whatever you want. I can't talk, so you make yeah.
Well it's all right. So he's seventeen years old and he is playing in.
A ball right now, and he went to Vie with a triple and four ribis in single A. That is impressive. Seventeen year old. Where is he right now in your Dynasty rankings?
Like?
How aware are people of this player and how aggressive should they be on him going forward?
Okay, so you do have to remember seventeen is young, but still yeah it is. But I rank Dynasty prospects in a grand scope not you know, it's usually a three or four year window.
It's not just this year.
So there are some people that rank predominantly for proximity. I don't, so beware when I tell you this. I have Leo de Vrais as a Leeud Devrees as a top sixty prospect, might even the top fifty prospect overall. He was in this last international class and I've had him inside my top one hundred the entire time, so he's always been a top one hundred prospect for me after you know, making his official signing on January fourth or twelfth, or whatever the hell it was in January.
And this took the Ethan Solace path because I saw him out in camp.
With the Padres.
He skipped all of the Dominican Winter League stuff played and extended. He's skipping complex ball and going straight to a ball. It's the exact path of Ethan Solace. But the offensive upside for Devers is bigger.
It is bigger.
There were comps frankly to like what the lot had seen on the positive side of like wander Franco early on. He's got an incredible eye, he's a big kid, He's running some and you're seeing what he can do on those lower levels if you're not going to throw him, you know, crazy big pitch, mixed stuff.
He is demolishing fastballs.
He's demolishing you know, the easy I right now and four RBIs early on. This is a guy that's going to move to High A this year and could jump up even to like Double A, where he could get not going to get called up, but you know, he could perceivably be called up like Ethan Solace. So think of what Ethan Solace is doing. But now think of this as a more mature bat and.
That's why he's so exciting.
He legit could be a top but it's more like twenty five prospect by the end of the season, right, what's up?
He's got to be like a three year window, right, like more of a twenty twenty seven kind of guy. I mean, I mean pushing into twenty twenty six. But that seems unlikely, although he is an A ball already.
Ideally, But like the thing we just don't fully understand is like what level are these teams going to push these guys? Ethan Sollas got up to double A last year. He's in High A, right now, he's going to go to double A. He might make the Majors at the end of the year, or at least go to Triple A. So I assume Devrees is going to go to High this year, start back at High next year and could push up the double A. So you know, to your point, two twenty six might be the window for a guy
like him. These special talents, they kind of break through, and it's it's the bat that makes it.
It's a for fantasy.
It's really tough because Ethan Solace there's so much we like about him, but he's a catcher, and he's a great defensive catcher, and his bat is still lagging a tiny bit.
That's not the that's not the Leo thing. Is fout file.
It's more of that great baseball player profile.
It is a fantasy profile, but it's overrated because of how exciting he is and how he's advancing, where Leo's not the same exact situation like this is a really high advanced back and watch out when the power starts developing.
Because he's like a big He's a big, big dude.
I saw him working out with you know, a lot of the drafted guys from the previous year. He was working out with Homer Bush and Dylan Head and Ethan Solace in camp this year, so it is a huge jump.
Guardians prospect Kyle Monzardo, who we talked about yesterday on the show, three for six, so he continues to say hot low Perfito three for five with two a solo home runs, so he's up to twelve now on the air. And Elvis Martinez. All the guys you talked about yesterday, Welsh, all of them were great and three home runs between them. So Martinez is a three run home run.
Dude.
This guy cannot be stopped right now. Martinez is on fire, like you're like, he's gotta get called up sooner than later.
And they just gotta get Vigio off.
They got to stop with the Vigio thing and then just let Orolvis, whether you're playing second or whether you're playing third, just let him play one of those spots, or just get his bat and.
Just get him in the coming out. Who cares at this point?
Also, get your comments in subscribe to the Fantasy Rose MLB channel, because when you do, we're giving away this trophy.
Smack.
Fantasy Baseball championship belt again. Subscribe to the channel comment below. That's all you gotta do to win this courtesy of our amazing friends.
Are good pals over a trophy. Smack.
It is a good looking belt right there. Let me tell you that's a good looking belt, all right. So lots of rookie stuff. Let's get the three up and three down. Zach Wheeler six shutout innings, eight strikeouts.
He's amazing.
He is the leader right now in the National League, in the cy Young race. According to Vegas Jerkson Profar having a really good April. Homer drove in three runs. Nice day for him and my boy Edward.
Julian.
After a little bit of a sill, a rough week a couple weeks ago, he has been back on track. The power's been there too, a home run, two runs. I like the power. The power was something I wasn't expecting from Julian, but I did tell you he's Jose vdro second coming, and so far it's basically what we're getting. So that average is gonna take up a little bit over time. Don't worry, kids, Julian is the goods.
Three days.
Oh, I got it, by the way, convert all I was saying. I was trying to that's what you're saying earlier, convert from like how miles to kilometers. I just realized and it processed what I was saying. That's the process of white Sox to real teams. It's like converting miles to kilometers and what they are.
Thank you, you're theres ago I was.
I would have interrupted anything you would have said to tempted to sound coherent there, because like that.
Was the absolutely I really just I hung you out there, not because I'm not a good friend. I hung you out there for the betterment of the entertainment value of the show.
Oh yeah, I know, it's good. I was literally drowning.
There was there was such a high percentage chance in the range of outcomes that we were going to get a welshsm't.
I was trying so hard not to.
You could literally just photoshop some water under me when my hands are up like it looks like I was drowning. It literally looked like I was. There's a question from Michael Julian or Morell.
For me, is Julian this is not close?
Sorry, I'd have to look at Morel's I don't know if this is not close.
I haven't like looked at Morel's numbers.
Yeah, and Jillian's kind of on the uptick again. Yeah, is exactly what you said about Chris Morrel. He's back on that like now I'm hitting two five. I will say with Morel great hard hit numbers, his expected batting average is almost seventy points higher than it currently is in the lowered k percentage. Oh, you know what I want to say, Julian, I might throw Morel.
I think you know what. Morell is a good by low candidate right now.
If he was dropped because there's some good underlying metrics that are in his favor, move up the lineup with bed Linger out there can steal a little bit, but Jullian is the safer option.
And yeah, we'll go with Julian.
Three down yesterday, Nick Martinez five runs, eleven hits gross, Freddy Peralta. Oh Freddy is so good. But he was bound to have a hiccup. It was not a good at start for him. He just wasn't He just wasn't there. Five hits, five runs, notication was walking some guys who going lasted four and two thirds like he had been so dominant.
He was bound for one of these disappointing starts.
Now, Freddy Parolta of old you know, might have more than one of these to see the new Freddie Praulta bounce back and be dominant in the next one next week. Mitch Keller four runs, six hits, five innings no point zero, not good for him. The injuries good news. Azzi Albi's now back from the ten day injured list.
No One.
Jones still out of the lineup again, So I don't know what we're doing here. Put him on the IL or something here, because this is very frustrating for the fantasy managers out there. Jackson Merril scratch from the line up yesterday with a tight right groin. We knew Zach Geloff was gonna go on the IL with the oblique and he did. Gavin Williams, though, was shut down after throwing for at least a week. Now he's gonna have
to be shut down, so we'll see. With the new discomfort in the elbow, that's not usually a good sign. But the good news is Kybert Ruiz coming back. So if you're looking for we're catching help. If you're somebody lost, Jose, excuse me a Francisco Alvarez, you have an opportunity here with Kybert Ruiz, we talked about Darnau, Elias Diaz. There's a bunch of guys out there that you can kind
of patchwork things together. And most importantly, Max scherzer next rehab start is going to be Tuesday for Double A Frisco. So let's map it up. If he goes Tuesday, then maybe he makes one more start on the Sunday and then loops back around maybe Thursday of two weeks from now.
I think, No, I don't believe.
I believe it's at least two more starts in the minors at least.
Oh.
Absolutely, he wasn't good.
Okay, Ferlander wasn't good in his either. No, these old guys they don't know, want to waste.
He's had no spee it doesn't want to be making stars in Double A.
Come on, I made the Rangers care what Max want. Max had no care.
Staring down into your soul with those two.
Colored eyes of his, he I will guarantee you there's at least two more starts. I think it's mid May, so it's the one coming up of the one after. I do want to point out though I don't think you saw it. It probably would have been like leading potential conversation at the show. But uh, and unless I completely missed, I mean, I'm a disaster today unless I miss.
Hearing you say it. But did you see the Hazy's Lozardo news?
Uh?
No, I did not.
I'm okay, so you did not, then yeah, Jesus starting, but I did not know why. Well, he was scratched due to elbow discomfort, so he is going for an MRI. So that is the again almost warranted at the top of the show type of stuff that.
It sounds like Max Meyer getting a phone call.
That's actually the very first tweet I got was Max Meyer has to be coming up, And I was like, yeah, sure, because they literally like don't have anybody else, Like, there's nobody.
I don't know what they're gonna do. This is like a movie.
They're gonna just start having position players, have to start pitching or getting guys off the street. So I just wanted to point that out because that is maybe the biggest most important news of the day, was this is another arm going down.
Another one. Now we don't know the severity of it.
By the way, he just felt discomfort, They're gonna go check it out, but like, how many times does this not lead to the.
He felt discomfort, That's okay, everything's fine, Like it's never that, It's never ever that.
So you should be praying that Maxers come back in your leagues if he's sitting out there, because guys like Lozardo are continuously.
Well and it's just this just stinks because we know, we had Craig Mitchell on the show earlier this year and he told us that they had been shopping him but they weren't getting the deals that they wanted, so they were gonna hold him until you know, in the season and see you know what was around there, And now you know, this is feeling shades of almost the Frankie Montass thing with the A's a couple of years ago, and then they dealt damage goods to the Yankees because
they were so desperate. Like, I don't know it's gonna happen here from Lozardo, but this is another pitcher we're gonna lose here.
Yeah, that would be interesting too.
What can we pull up the Fantasy pros draft ranking, the consensus pitcher ranking from this year and how many guys are still pitching in the top twenty five.
I'm I might guess half of them are gone or not.
I don't think it's half. I think that's absurd, but.
I will say it's we were seeing.
So I wonder if there's even like a little bit, tiny bit more of teams being extra cautious, like the Gavin Williams thing. Gavin Williams, you know, he kind of kept having these little setbacks and they kept, you know, having him throw out here, and it's just it's falling apart. I think they will baby this situation with hazus Lozardo.
But the best case scenario is it is, you know, just like some type of a strain and he can sit back, which is probably for a month or so, and then I would fully expect him to be traded.
But that's gonna kill a lot of value, all right.
So I have a list here.
It's not ours so Tier one Spencer Strider, he's out. Tier two, Corbyn Burns he's good, Zach Wheeler good, Becausetill good, Kirby now good again, Zach Allen, Papolopez, Kevin Gosman tenuous there but now good. So Tier two safe, You're ready for Tier three, Yea, I'm Amoto, Tyler Glass Now, Logan Webbs, Google, Nola, Max freed Back, Ferry pearulta bad yesterday for em Valdez hurt, Blake Snell hurt. Okay, so it's maybe it's better than
we think so far. Logan Gilbert brilliant, greatest picture ever, Grayson Rodriguez just coming off a bad start. Bobby Miller on the il, Zachkathlyn he's been up and down, Lozardo hurt now, Joe Ryan's been great, Reagan's lately not been great.
Steal on the al but it's not on arm things. We'll give up pass.
Joe Muscow has been underwhelming, Cease has been good. Tanner Bibby's been up and down. Tier five, Sonny Gray, Chris Sale, Chris Bassett, Michael King, Hunter Green, Shane Bieber, Gone, Bailey ober Merril, Kelly I l Jose Burrios, who's been very good. So it's been mixed, it's been, it's been, It's ben it's been a mixed bag.
I think that's the safest thing to say.
This next grouping though, the tiers six grouping, Oh my god, listen to this.
Shutdowy Minaga brilliant.
Right after that, Carlos Rodon you darvish Il Mitch Keller's terrible. Justin Verlander just got back. Christian Javier he's been good, but again you never know. Jordan Montgomeral he's on the Il. Jordan Mayes right, forgot he did go on the Al. Jordan Montgomery. He just got back. Nick Pavetta, Bryce Miller, Hunter Brown, who was awful, Walker Bueller is still not back yet. Tristan McKenzie's elbows falling off, Brandon Fought, he's good. Av The Garrick Cole hasn't thrown a pitch yet. Tier
six has been misery so far, absolute misery. And it's not even May first, folks, it's not even Ja first. Yeah, it's pitching, folks, it's pitching.
There were some verse pitching to happiness because it's a tough, tough, tough to think.
You got to use your conversion.
Lee Gi wants to know, Hey, Joe, you're a Mets fan. And the expectations for Jennie Martinez. Yeah, I mean I think he will be you know, he will hit for some power. The batting average will be a little underwhelming because he's another year older. He's got to hope this isn't the year where it falls apart. But the fact that he's had, you know, been struggling to get up to speed is not great. It doesn't make me feel
warm and fuzzy. Casey's got a good one. Jackson Curio or Cormyn Carroll in Dynasty Welsh, that's silk Carol.
I mean, I'm I am fading on Carol right now, but my redraft dislike of Carol right now is not the same as my Dynasty. I did bump him down a few spots, but I haven't taken Carrol out of my top ten because also, let's say this is a shoulder issue, it doesn't mean it's gonna be the rest of his career. And we saw what the healthy I mean again, we are continuously because we can't get any information.
I talked to Steve Gardner about this. Why will no reporter bring this up like every other day, about what's going on with the shoulder.
Why are pitchers throwing you high and upside?
Why can't you hit him like if it is an injury, which we're speculating on, it'll clear or he just sucks. And I don't think he just sucks. I think it is a this year issue. So my redraft versus Dynasty value is different. I would be buying Corbyn Carroll with big discounts and not that Churio and Carol are massively crazy crazy, you know, fifty sixty seventy spot difference in dynasty.
But yeah, I would take Carol in that instance.
You know, I know people are talking about, oh, well, Jadie Martinez so good last year. Yeah he was. Let's also remember where he was hitting and what lineup he was hitting in.
And let's also remember too, you know, these guys start to get into those thirties, like think about those DH guys like Big Poppy. Eventually, you know, after so many good years, it did go south. Even Nelson Cruz right twenty one, he had still thirty something home runs and then you know, the bottom kind of dropped out and then that was it. So that does happen. So I'm
just saying I would be concerned with it. But I think if he's out there and Nita bat absolutely would you rather have Michael Bush rest of season or jad Martinez?
Michael Bush?
Easy? Okay? Why why? Easy?
Because he's good?
And Jady Martinez hasn't played, and Jady Martinez has been DH only the Mets of struggle.
I like JD.
I know where you're going with this, because Jad was really good last year, but he didn't have much of a market, which seems to be telling he was early.
He was, he was great, thirty three one to oh three with an eight ninety three ops.
That's that's better than good.
Like that is the Michael Bush ceiling of all ceilings for twenty twenty four.
But I can also say Michael Bush because he's been consistent two sixty six average, six homers, he's.
On colors and similar to this, But then again, this week was trash for him, eleven strikeouts the last seven days. He he hasn't hit a home run since that streak where he's hitting one every single day, so it has been a little up and down. Look, I'm just saying it's kind of interesting when you think about it. Yeah, Bush is on pace for that, but he's never played a full season in the major league, so that's yeah.
And JD's a DH only guy. Like, I get why you like Jady Martinez. If he's sitting out on the wire. I have shares of him, and I get to finally put him in my lineup after a month, and if he's sitting on the wire, I would pick him up. But when it's versus a guy like I don't care about what Bush has done the last week. He's got an almost twenty percent barrel rate. His XBA is higher
than his current batting average. He is red beyond red as far as the baseball savant side, which all that tells you is like he's in the upper percentile of hard hit and barreling and expected slug and he's hitting in a good, friendly ballpark where he gets to hit in the middle. I'm gonna take the younger guy who's got a couple position qualifications who I would love for Jady Martinez to be right now, even though I know you could see I want Michael Bush to be what Jadie Martinez.
Was last year. It might be even, but I'll definitely take Michael Bush.
It's that time again, boys and girls. It's time for the best bets of the day with Joey p and the Welsh. Make sure you place your bets over at Bet three six five Bet five bucks get one hundred and FIFTYMPONUS bets. When you do with that promo code leading off. But again that's only when you sign up for bet three six y five with that promo code leading off.
Welsh. I'm gonna keep things.
Simple today, Orioles with Corbyn Burns on the mound against the A's.
Yes, please.
In fact, we're gonna move this run line from one and a half to two and a half, and I'm gonna take the plus money.
Now.
If you don't want to do that, you can still get it at a decent number in the minus one and a half range. It's gonna be somewhere around the minus one ten market most.
That's fine. Even if it's one twenty. You'll still take that. That's cool.
But if you do want to push it a little bit, if you're as confident as I am that the Orioles are going to dominate the A's and I am, you can get plus money on it. The Yankees one and a half on the run line plus one forty against the Brewers.
I like that one too.
The Yankees have been terrific, like we can't you know, you look up at this innings. They are the Yankees without Garrett Cole. It is because of the offense, good situation, this weekend too, for them going against the Brewers in that ballpark, like the offense there.
And then the.
Phillies on the money line minus one ten against the Padres today, good matchup on their side. So normally I'm not going for those road teams, but I like both of the Yankees run line and the Phillies money line today. The Yankee run line plus one forty. That's a great number there, You're leading off parlay of the day from Joey p Is this the Orioles minus two and a half on the run line plus one twenty two versus the A's and then put that Yankee number with the
one forty. You put those two things together, and if the Orioles kick the crap out of the A's like I think they can, and the Yankees have a comfortable victory. Next thing, you know, that's four to one odds you're getting on that. So Welsh, what do you have for the people on this fun Friday?
All right? Well, I'm joining you in the Baltimore Love.
I actually was trying to find every way to bet this to see if I could play first fives or first five up by a run, and they just don't make sense you're gonna have to put them with something.
They're just too juiced up.
So I actually really like your idea of the of the alt run line there, even you know, even though Oakland has shown some offense, they just beat up on the Yankees. But I'm gonna take Baltimore with Corbyn Burns minus one and a half. As you mentioned at one twenty, Baltimore is third scoring in MLB, Oakland is the second worst. Stripling's got a five and a half era Burns has in the twos in the mid two, so I feel comfortable about the pitching matchup the offensive side as well.
Gunnar Henderson all day, So I like Baltimore minus one and a half on the run line. Next up, I'm going to the Arizona Diamondbacks first five money line. That's minus one twenty five Zach Gallon. This is up against the Seattle Mariners. D Backs are still first in first five scoring on the year, and they're over They're over that number of in the last three games they've been at the tippy top.
They're the number one.
Seattle is bottom ten in scoring through the first five, and Gallon's matchup, even though he's been a little bit wishy washy. We've seen Seattle's offense just kind of struggle in general, so.
I like that. You can play the run line too.
You actually get plus money on this with the Diamondbacks, but give me money line just in case so I can push if it is. If it you know their same score. This is my danger of danger zone here. I was the greatest no run first inning better for the first two weeks of the season. I am the fade of fade over the last week. I have literally I think I've gotten every the last five wrong. I'm just continuously wrong.
But I'm gonna go back.
So I warn you now you can fade me on that. This is the most algorithmic of algorithmic plays on the planet, and this is why I'm doing it. Mets Saint Louis no run first inning minus one twenty. Mets are the worst first run scoring team in baseball. Cardinals are the seventh worst scoring first run team in baseball. The Mets have the fourth highest no run first inning percentage in baseball at eighty three percent to not score a run
Cardinals eighty percent. That's eighth worst. These offenses stink. We got the booty Man and we got Michaelis up there, which are not great, but this is all about an algorithm. Fade the hell out of me on the no run first innings because it's been bad, but I think this is the one that gets us right. So that's my third bet here.
There you go, Wed in doubt, put your trust in Jose bhuttou. That's what you do, baby, That'll do it.
For our Friday best bets of the day, make sure you subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel and don't forget to join our group bettingpros dot com slash leading Off. Remember the best better of the month is gonna win a prize here, and don't forget if you haven't already downloaded the Betting Pros app and used the greatest tools in the history of the planet when it comes to sports wagering, all right, Welsh, When it comes to the home run board, it looks a little something like this.
I'm still in the top ten. That's where I want to be. You're you're close. Mitch Hanniger was a bus yesterday. I can't believe ty France had a home run for Mayor. That's that's just unsettling. But I don't see him on this list. I don't see wonkye Penguin either, which is kind of upsetting. We give you, but where's the wonky Penguin. Where's the rest of the leading off crew who works here representing I'm looking for my pals here and I want to see them on this home run board.
I'm gonna go back to.
The stars because yesterday I went a nonstar and I did not get a home run despite all the good numbers there. So I'm gonna go with one Soda for the weekend in Milwaukee because that's a good home run hitting ballpark and I don't have to face Freddy Peralta if I'm won Soda, and that's the only guy that really scares me in that rotation.
So keeping it simple, let's go with the one Wand what are you doing, Welsh?
I am going to Atlanta and I'm gonna pick on Logan Allen, who's got a four over fourteen percent home run to fly ball ratio, and I'm gonna take Austin Riley.
So Austin Rally's gonna be my pick.
I guess like through the weekend unless I make a decision and I go over to our own discord and I go into the home run room, I can change that call. So you know, for us, I'm taking Austin rally through the weekend.
But I don't know.
I might get something up my craw and be like I want to take this guy, and I'll just go in and I'll have the bot to record my home run bet and pray to God that I can get on the home run board sometime soon.
Anything you know doesn't work out for you can always bring back the wheel and you can always join our discord at Fantasyboros dot com slash chat.
It's free.
And again, don't forget every single Wednesday, we're here after the show for the show, after the show, after leading off, go to cleaning up on our discord and chat with us. And now I've got all the systems working finally where it's not gonna be a problem and I'll actually be on the show on time.
That was so annoying.
I hate it's saying all that. It literally says it's reading the microphone at the other station. I'm at all these things. I've used it in other meetings. It's just on discord it doesn't want to work. I don't know why it's just a goofy.
It's pretty funny. It was pretty funny. I will say.
Also, make sure you're here Monday, because you guys aren't gonna get a full slate of me next week. And I know everyone's gonna be so sad you have all the dead space and uncoherent sentences put together, because Mogman will be halfway through that incoherent.
Yeah.
See, I know.
I'm I'm done. All right, bye, everybody, I'm gonna I'm gonna go.
You look at my background, joe I'll be here Monday, probably never again.
I'm also gonna be a great wolf lodge, I think, trying to avoid getting some.
Sort of open mouth disease because that's.
What water parks do. So Welsh is gone. That just leaves me, Joey P. It's Friday. Go home early today, go watch some baseball, Go have some fun, go watch the NFL Draft. Join us tonight for Night two on our Fantasy Pro's main channel too.
We're gonna be there for all of it, so that'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for what used to be the Welsh. I'm Joey P. I guess we'll see you Monday. Kids, have a great weekend.