What's going on? Everybody, Welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. We are doing our free agency preview today. It's a slightly delayed episode because of some scheduling conflicts. I was pushing up kidney stones earlier in the week and doing some traveling, so we had to push this one back. But we are very excited to kick off our off season baseball content a little bit earlier than usual. But we love baseball, we love talking
about it. We could only keep us away for so long. I am your host today. Joel Rico joined for I believe the first time we've ever done a show together by the Wonky Penguin. Kelly Kirby, Kelly, how you doing today. It's great to talk with you.
Finally, I'm doing pretty well. I'm very excited to be on podcast with you. I think whenever I've seen you on like leading off, I'm like, nah, I think you and I would have some really good vibes. So I'm glad they put us together for this, And I'm really glad that you might be past your kidney stones because that just sounded horrific.
So they're still kicking around in there, but We've got the right comment nation of meds that makes it so I can get through a podcast and get back into the working world after having to take a couple of days off. But it's great to be back talking baseball. I haven't done a podcast in a few weeks, and
we got a lot of fun players to talk about. Today, we are going to be breaking down the free agent class of twenty twenty four slash twenty twenty five, and I think there's really nowhere else to start except with Juan Sota, who is the by far the biggest name available in the class. There is a chance that he
gets the biggest contract we've ever seen. I know that there's you know, with all the deferred money and all that, things do get complicated, But Wan Soto is going to get an absolute haul that could exceed six hundred million dollars, and it probably should after the year he just put together one hundred and twenty eight runs, forty one homers, which was a career high for him, one hundred and nine RBI, seven stolen bases, and he also hit two eighty eight with a four to nineteen on base five
to sixty nine slugging. I do think that the landing spot does come down to probably three places. I've heard Toronto thrown around in there. I'm not going to get hurt again on that front. We just did that last offseason. It does seem like New York in terms of the Yankees and the Mets are going to be the front runners, and also the Dodgers. Kelly, do you have a lean right now or where you think Wan Soto is going to be playing come April.
I think it'll be really hard for him to not go back to the Yankees, given that they made it to the World Series, they came close, and he and Judge just created such a monstrous you know, two three or however they were batting toward the end, that that would make the most sense. I would love if the Blue Jay has got him, but I understand you wanting to avoid that type of thing two years in a row, and maybe we just won't track planes this offseason. But
I suppose you could go to the Mets. I just feel like I feel like the Yankees are gonna kind of come in like hard for him given what they've done, and if the Dodgers swoop in and get him, then you know, that's just the end. Of baseball as we know it, right, So.
If he goes to the Dodgers, it's I'm not sure how closely you follow basketball, but this is essentially the Kevin Durant to Golden State move from well seven years ago or so. You lose the championship to the superpower and you think, all right, can't beat him, might as well join him. I hope for baseball's sake that they don't get Wan Soto. There's another big free agent we're going to touch on in just a minute, And honestly, most of the big free agents we've listed potential landing spots.
The Dodgers are going to be in on all of the big names. But if they get Wan Soto and you're trotting out however you want to arrange them Otani bets Freeman Soto, maybe they get ta Oscar Hernandez back, they might win one hundred and thirty eights.
Yeah. I thought that last year when they had just the three, the Freeman, Bets and Otani, I was like, who, what pitcher is going to want to go at that threesome? You can't add a fourth like this. I think it would be devastating and as a Cubs fan, I would prefer he stay out at the National League, So maybe
that's why I'm really hoping Yankees. But yeah, I also think from a fantasy perspective that on the Yankees he has a good chance of, like those numbers, keeping them up really high if they could bring in anyone else in that lineup to kind of help boost them, which I think they would if they got him. So I like him there, especially with the short porch. But it is yeah, like I said, as long I don't I would just prefer not being the Dodgers.
So if it's the Dodgers, it's I mean, for a fantasy point of view, that would be amazing for want Soto's value. He might have one hundred and fifty runs and one hundred and forty RBI and god only knows what else he could put up in that lineup. I'm not sure how they would arrange it. I would imagine he'd be baddened first or second, considering the on base prowess. But you could take those four names, saw them at the wall, and it wouldn't really matter how you come
up with them one through four. It would be ridiculous. Now, I do think the Yankees need to really really push for getting want Soto back. Whether it's ten years, fifteen years, sign him until he's one hundred years old, it doesn't matter because if he leaves, you got Aaron Judge who is on the wrong side of thirty, You got Jazz Chisholm, and then that's kind of it. Offensively, we saw them, even with Juan Soto this year, kind of struggle outside
of the Sodo Judge incredible pairing. They kind of need to get him back, and that would also be, as we saw this past season, a really great fantasy spot for him in terms of the Mets. I don't know how great that would be in terms of the counting stats, especially if Pete a Lonzo were to leave. They're still Francisco Lindor. But I think we probably both agree that would be the weakest landing spot from a fantasy point of view.
Yeah, one hundred percent. I thought that too, where a Soto Lindor top of the order is formidable, But if they lose Alonso and they don't bring in somebody behind them, that's not the ideal spot for a fantasy. I mean, he would still be worth having, obviously, like Wansota's going to be worth having wherever he goes. But I would be way less excited if he was on the Mets just from that perspective.
Yeah, I think he's a first round pick regardless of which one of the thirty teams he ends up on. But I think if I were a betting man, and occasionally I am, I think that it's probably the Yankees. They're probably going to to just give him six hundred and fifty million dollars or something. But we'll have to see how that one plays out. Let's move on to Corbyn Burns unless we have anything else to add on Sodo.
Nope, that's all I've got.
So Corvin Burns had a fantastic season. Fifteen wins, one hundred and ninety four innings. He struck out one hundred and eighty one batters. It was a two ninety sixy ra, a one to ten whip. The thing with Burns is that his stuff numbers the stuff plus metrics that Enosaurus has that you can check them out on fangrafts, and the strikeout rates have gone down in each of the past four seasons. Makes me a little bit nervous from
a fantasy point. Of view to really invest in Corbyn Burns some potential landing spots again, the Mets, the Dodgers, the Red Sox, the Orioles. What's your look on Corbyn Burns's landing spot and do you have any concern about some of the kind of bad trends we've seen from him over the last couple of years.
Yeah, I have more concerns about him based on how kind of the last year went with especially those strikeout numbers, and even I know it sounds absurd, but even like that era was seemed just a little bit higher than what you know, you expect from him on a regular basis. So in this case, I think it does matter if which park he ends up in terms of home park for pitching and I so it's like I would rather he not go to the Red Sox. But yeah, I
see him. I see him more as a Met than kind of anybody else I think, so that's where I would put him, But I have I definitely have concerns. I don't know if I would take him as like the first pitcher off the board or anything next year just because he's going to turn thirty, it's it's go in that direction.
In my early rankings, and again it's the calendar. Just slipped in November. They're probably gonna be torn apart and redone. But he is like a borderline top ten pitcher for me right now. I could potentially move him outside of the top ten even and I think there's there will be people who are still in on him as a as a top five, top seven pitcher. I wouldn't have a huge problem with it. But you know, he threw one hundred and niney four nings. He didn't even meet
that strikeout parading threshold. That is something to worry about. The ballpark will obviously also be a factor wherever he goes. I think if he stays in Baltimore, that would be what they probably need outside of him. And you know, they've got Grace Rodriguez who hasn't quite lived up to expectations.
I believe Zach Efflin is still under contract. They have, you know, the building blocks for a good rotation, but I think Corvin Burns is kind of necessary if they want to continue at the pace they've been at for the last couple of years of ninety to one hundred wins, making it, you know, hopefully making it deep in the playoffs, I think they really should make a big push to
bring him back. And of course that deep wall of Mount Baltimore, whatever you want to call it, in left field, certainly does help there from a pitching standpoint, for Corvin Burns and for everybody in Baltimore that's made it more of a much more pitcher friendly park over the last couple of seasons. But you are leading the Mets at this point.
I'm leaning the Mets just because I feel like the way that the season went for them, where they were so good and then they were you know, where they were so bad and then they were so good, and I felt like when it got to the playoffs that pitching just you know, when they started, QUOTEA saying at one point like who hadn't pitched all season? Like, it's very important for them to lock down somebody that they
can count on. And if nothing else, Burns has been pretty consistent at giving Indians I believe, so he fills that rotation guy really strongly for them. I can definitely see Baltimore doing it with kind of the same idea that they just didn't have. They didn't have a great rotation do exactly what they wanted it to do, and so bringing him back for the Grace and Rodriguez situation. And even though they you know, brought in Trevor Rodgers in the weirdest trade in history, I don't think he's
going to be in there either. So yeah, I like him in Baltimore too, I think, but I don't like I said, I'm not a big fan of him going to the Red Sox. But you can tell Mike Meyer that.
So that was one of the more puzzling trades at the deadline. I mean, Trevor Rodgers and Eloy him and Az didn't save their season. It's hard to be surprised by that. E Flynn was a pretty good pick up with them. But a couple of deadlines and row as a side note, that have been a little puzzling in Baltimore. I know, they acquire Jack Flaherty in twenty twenty three. That was kind of their big move before he kind of had his resurgence, and that didn't work out too
well for them. So they're gonna have to start nailing these deadlines. And I do think they are gonna have to start nailing some of these free agents if they want to remain competitive in the American League East, where outside of Toronto, every team is probably going to be very good again next season. Then we saw what can happen down the stretch to a team like Baltimore. Even though they started off really well, they did have a pretty disappointing second half and a bit of an early
exit from the postseason. Let's mention Roki Sazaki, who is I just saw a report the other day. I believe it was Kylie McDaniel who said that there is a strong likelihood that he is going to be posted, and surprise, surprise, the Dodgers are going to be the team that is very in on Roki Sazaki. Japanese players do tend to like playing on the West coast. He already has the Imamoto and Otani out there. It would make sense and it would be a rather scary thing, I think for
major league batters. As amazingly is still just coming off of his age twenty two season. He had a two thirty five ERA in Japan last year over one hundred and eleven innings with one hundred and twenty nine strikeouts. His whip was one point zero three. He looks like even a slightly better version almost of Yoshinobu Yamamoto and quite a bit younger. Pretty scary thought of him potentially going to the Dodgers.
Kelly, Yes, and that is I think where I would put him too. I mean, like you said, they like to stay on the West coast a little bit more, and I mean, I don't know if you send Otani for a recruitment trip, like, who's going to say no to him? So it's and they've been scouting him super heavily.
I was surprised to see. I mean, we were looking at a list from the Athletic as well, and I was surprised to see the Diamondbacks seem to be very very much in on him as well, which is kind of an interesting dark horse because you're still out in the west somewhere, so perhaps, but they have a much
higher hill climb I think. So. Yeah. I couldn't get that he was twenty two, because I know that a lot of times coming out of the Japanese League, they're much older when they get posted, and so he would be. He would be in very interesting case studies, I think, for how Major League Baseball is going to interact with the MPB going forward.
We just saw Yamamoto get the biggest ever pitching contract last season, and he's I think twenty nine or thirty years old. There's a good chance a Zaki is able to beat that on a per year basis, and even maybe on a term basis. If he gets signed to a fifteen year contract or something. It wouldn't really surprise me. It's like almost doubling his lifespan to this point in terms of the contract, almost, but it wouldn't surprise me really. Again,
it's the same culprits. The Dodgers, the Mets, the Yankees, Boston. These are the teams that historically do spend, and you figure when a twenty two year old ace pops into the free agent market, they're going to do what they can to try and sign him. If I were to place money on this right now, I'd say he's probably going to go to the Dodgers. It just seems to be the most likely outcome at this point for Issazaki.
We were going to talk about Garrett Cole, but he did opt back into his contract, so there's not really too much to discuss there. The Yankees didn't have much of a choice, even though Garrett Cole has some injury problems, some flash concerns, he's getting older. But without Garrett Cole in that rotation, I don't think there would be really much to talk about in New York. So no real surprise there, Kelly that they picked up the Garrett Cole option. Anything to add on him.
I just I think it'll be really interesting to see where he goes and drafts for fantasy, given that his numbers have been if he and he. When he's good, he's good. When he's not good, he's not good, and you're again same age thing. How old was he? I forgot thirty four four? Yeah, so yeah, you're starting to really look at him, like how are people going to draft him based on name more than current level of talent?
And it'll be interesting to see. But I always assumed he would just still be Yankee when it was all done.
So yeah, the name value is going to push him up a little too high for my comfort level. I think I have him at like fifteen or sixteen, and I could make an argument that he should be top five. You could also make an argument that he should probably be like outside of the top twenty five. We're talking about the declining trends with Corbyn Burns. It's been kind
of the same thing with Garrett Cole. His numbers are more closely resembling what he did in his late Pittsburgh era, early Houston era to some extent more so than what we've seen over the last five or so years. So a little bit of a decline. He's still probably going to be very solid, but not somebody that I really want to be taking in the first couple rounds where he's gone the last couple of seasons. I don't have early eightyp pulled up in front of me. There's like
twenty or so drafts that have been completed. But you get the feeling that Garrett Cole is probably going to be a little too expensive for our taste.
Again, yeah, I think so, And then you know, they'll make us look like fools if he does what he's what he has been doing. But I would imagine a lot of people in the industry are going to be down on him further than people outside of the industry.
There's something to be said about those Hall of Fame, superstar level talents where sometimes they just do things that aren't expected of Garrett One another sog Young next year, I wouldn't be overly shocked by it, but I do think we are kind of on the back nine of his career at this point. Another pitcher who does have some injury concerns is also a free agent. That's Max Freed, coming off of a pretty solid year. There were a couple of ups and downs, but eleven wins, one hundred
and seventy four innings. He struck out one hundred and sixty six batters with a three twenty five a one sixteen whip. I think there's a decent chance he goes back to Atlanta, But from some conversations I've had with people who follow the Braves, they don't know that it's all that likely. Baltimore, New York, Boston are also potential landing spots in New York, as in the Mets there. What are your thoughts on Max Freed? He has dealt with four arm elbow problems each of the last few seasons.
Would that give you any pause as a team looking to sign him and as a fantasy manager looking to draft him in twenty twenty five?
Yeah, I mean the left forearm neuritis never sounds good for a left handed pitcher. I have some concerns about him. I feel like he had a nice kind of bounce back, and he did come back from injury and he got up to that one one seventy four mark, so you know, he was able to he was he was able to kind of fight through it. But whenever somebody, whenever picture has an injury to that arm, I get a little
bit nervous. And neritis is one of those words where you it's like, Okay, well we don't know exactly how feverar that means, and when it can like flare up, it can make it very difficult to assess. So I would I wouldn't have any concerns given what it'll take, I think to sign him, I wouldn't have too many concerns. But I do enjoy the salary comps that were compared for him were like people like Patrick Corbin and Tyler Glass now, and that's not really inspiring in terms of
injury stuff. So yeah, I'm but I also think in terms of fantasy, he depending on where he lands. Again, you know, like he won't have a lot of win equity if he goes to somewhere that just doesn't have it. And Braves are a decent landing spot if they decide to resign him. But I see him landing in Boston for some reason.
I think I could see that. I wouldn't love it from a ballpark standpoint, more one of the more hitter friendly ballparks. I think it's usually third, second to fourth kind of range if you look at stat cast park factors. Wouldn't be my favorite thing. From a fantasy point of view, I'd like to see him stick around in Atlanta. You're going to have a full powered lineup supposed to be a full powered lineup with Lacuna coming back. You know,
Ozzie Albi's, Michael Harris, Austin Riley. All these guys missed time this season. He did still win eleven games, and double digit wins is not something that we can be so secure in with starting pitchers these days. Generally speaking, it's a win. But I would prefer to see him going back to Atlanta as opposed to going to the Mats or going to Boston. Baltimore would be kind of interesting as a landing spot. I'm not sure they'll open
the books for him and carbon Burns. If they're going to sign a big starting pitcher, I'd imagine be one the other, and they probably would go more with the incumbent there and burns. But somebody that I do kind of worry about. I did a show last preseason again talking about Enosaurus, and he was reading off some stats about the recurrence of elbow and four arm injuries, and once you have one, especially if you have multiple, the
recurrence is like eighty percent or something. So I feel like there will come a time when Free does need Tommy John surgery and we'll need to miss a lot of the season. I kind of factored that into early rankings. I haven't in like the low twenties right now, which probably is a lot lower than a lot of people just generally perceive Max Free to be. But I am a little bit worried about that arm holding up for sure.
Yeah. And you know one thing that I always talk about or just believe I guess in my own is is, well, you can't predict injury. You can't say, oh this is you know, anyone can get injured at any time. I do think there are you have to pay some attention to little things like this where it does exist. And I think he does have a higher he has a higher inclination. I think for an arm issue than a few some other pitchers. So it's okay to take injury into account in situations like this.
In my opinion, Yeah, I think he'll still get paid because of a pitcher who I mean, if you look at his track record, just if you just forget about the injury problems and his look at the scoreboards these last six seven years, every year pretty much he's right around the three era. He's winning double legit games. He's been a workhorse, and I think that will get him paid, even though I think we're both maybe a little bit
nervous about what that can potentially look like. Before we keep going, we got a special offer for you guys right now. You can unlock a free month of Betting Pros Premium when you download the Betting Pros app and use that promo code FP free. So FP free. Baseball might be done for now, but there are tons of football, basketball, and hockey games to be betting on. Get access to tools like the same gay Arla tool, the prop bet Analyzer,
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It's available on iOS and Android, and once again that code is FP free, Kelly, Let's keep it going. We've mentioned him already once or twice, and Pee Alonso is next on our list. He had a pretty solid season ninety one runs, eighty eight, Ribby's thirty four home runs two thirty seven. Batting average wasn't so so great. I think it was kind of a little bit lesser than what we were expecting, and there wasn't. It's funny because
there was a contract offer that he had. I think it was like seven years, one hundred and sixty some odd million before this season. I don't know that he's going to get that number now. Some of the potential landing spots are the Mets, Seattle, the Yankees, even the Nationals were listed in that article. What are your thoughts on p Alonzo? Is he going to be able to recoup what he was offered? I believe it was before
this season. Is there any real reason to be concerned about his landing spot or his fantasy value going forward? As far as you see it.
I'm not as concerned about him, but I don't know, aside from being represented by Boris, I'm not sure if he'll be able to get that back. Like I understand wanting to test the market, and I think in terms of power, bats and first basement, it's a little it's he's kind of the one that's out there, if I remember correctly, But so I feel like he's got that power. His average is right where I expected it to be, just because he was so low last year or and
kind of split the difference between the years before. But I think he has forty home run potential pretty much everywhere. Obviously, if he lands somewhere with a nice outfield like the Yankees, then you've got it. The Mariners would be the worst of the landing spots just from a power perspective, but
I wouldn't have any issue. Like the way I always look at him is you're drafting him for three categories, and as long as you keep in mind you're drafting him for three categories, then you probably won't be disappointed.
Seattle would not be something that I love from the power perspective. I think he's strong enough to negate a lot of that. But still, even if it would have been maybe forty two home run somewhere else, it might be thirty five, thirty six in Seattle. You're also looking at a team that struggled, even just outside of the ballpark. Their lineup was atrocious last season. Julio struggled, everybody struggled. Now you got Randy Rosorina in town, which does help out.
But he's also a guy who struggled last season. Wouldn't be my favorite choice. I mean, hell, I'm a Blue Jay fan, I'm an Al East fan. If he goes to the Yankees, I'm probably gonna cry a little bit, especially if Sodo goes back there. But in terms of the potential landing spots, that might be the most favorable. If you're getting him right behind Judge and Soto, you might be looking at one hundred and twenty hundred and thirty RBI. Well, the Yankee spend to that extent hasn't
been their mo in recent years. But when a guy like Alonzo's on the market, if you can get him, that would be probably pretty wise for the Yankees to at least pursue that.
Yeah, I can see them kind of checking in on him. Again, I don't. I would guess he's going to go obviously where the most money in the most years are, and independent of anything else, the Yankee I feel like, yeah, if they throw the whole thing at Soto. I don't think they would be willing to throw another whole thing at at Alonzo, which, like you said, as an Alias fan, I don't think anyone wants that because that would be kind of a frightening lineup as well, kind of that
foursome that you don't want to deal with. But from a fantasy perspective, you know, either New York I think is a good landing spot for him.
So, yeah, he's shown that he could be productive in the Mets lineup. There's a familiarity aspect there. Yeah, either one of the New York lineups would probably be the best estimation. I've seen kind of a mixed bag of responses to him potentially going back to New York from the Mets people I follow on Twitter, they seem to be kind of they don't want to pay him for
his declining years in his thirties. But at the same time, you know, thirty five home runs, Hunter and RBI don't just grow on trees, and as a team that would really really need to fill that hole if he were to go somewhere else, or some potential other players on this list we're going probably going to that could be that person, but I think the Mets should should really push the chips forward to try and get Pete Alonso back.
Alex Bregman is another guy here about what we were expecting this season, maybe slightly less in terms of the counting stats. Seventy nine runs, seventy five RBI, but still had twenty six home runs. He still batted to sixty. There's been some kind of cute quotes in the media from Scott Boris the last couple of days, making some jokes from some jokes about his clients with Bregman and
with Pete Alonzo. Now the potential landing spots Houston, the Yankees, the Nationals have popped up a couple of times on this list, Seattle, Detroit. I think he probably goes back to Houston, but I don't have a great feel for the market on Alex Bregman at this point. He probably hasn't been exactly what people were expecting over the last couple of seasons. He had that amazing MVP worthy year in twenty nineteen I think it was, and then over the last few years hasn't been bad by any means,
but hasn't really been an out standing player either. Where are you on Bregman. Do you think he'll end up going back to Houston or will he potentially go to one of these other markets?
I think if I feel like, if Houston wants him, they'll make a solid offer and he will have to kind of decide if he wants to move on from them, which I haven't seen anything that says that he wants to. However, we also know that Houston has no problem letting free agents walk no matter how long they've been in an organization, and with Bregman mean thirty, I can kind of I can see the Astros deciding they're going to get younger and kind of build around Jordan and Tucker and start
over with a few people. So I feel like, I don't know. I feel like the Nationals are an interesting landing spot for him, The Tigers are an interesting landing spot for him. I don't really have a strong desire like to have him in fantasy just because I feel like he's a I feel like he usually goes too high for the production that he's giving you. But he's also the type of player that will beat you, like randomly every week that you play against him, and you'll
think why don't I draft Alex Bregman. So I find him to be a very infuriating fantasy player sometimes obviously, like if he goes to Detroit, that's not a hitters park. If you go Seattle, the same thing. Staying in Houston I think has the best fantasy impact other than again, the Yankees, but that kind of goes without saying at this point, if everybody lands with the Yankees, then that is a boost for all of their value.
Yeah, with the park, and then you know, especially if Soto goes back there, then you just add around them in that lineup. Anybody who gets added to that lineup is looking pretty pretty damn interesting. In terms of Bregman, there was I think it was Jose al Tuve or some member of the Astros right when the season ended that was making kind of a public plea to re sign him. Forget if it was al Toovey, I think it was al Tuve. There are I think he is
wanted by his teammates. They do want him back. However much of an impact that has, I'm not sure, but keeping your superstars happy he generally is a good thing. If they're happy playing with Bregman, having him as their third basement and still giving you decent production. There's a good chance that they listen to their stars and bring him back for fantasy. I always find that he gets pushed up a little bit because of the perceived scarcity
at third base. All the position drives up. I got to take somebody, and then Bregman ends up going same thing with like Nolan Arnado the last couple of years, he ends up going a little bit earlier than he probably should. I don't think he should be a top hundred pick at this point. If he's in Houston, he's
probably borderline. But I agree with you that he's kind of a frustrating player to roster, especially in head to head, because you do get weeks where it is okay, he went one for seventeen, and then the next week he goes nine for fifteen and hit three home runs. It's like what what? What are we doing? So he is a bit of a polarizing player for sure, especially as he enters into his thirties. He's already in his thirties, I believe,
but you're not looking at amazing production going forward. But I think, especially if he's back in Houston, you're still getting solid third base production, and you know, there is something to be said about the position not being super deep. So I don't hate him as long as the price is and get pushed up too too much, right yep.
And I think if he goes back to Houston, whose price will probably remain pretty much where it needs to be. If he goes to the Yankees, he'll get too expensive in ten seconds or less. So yeah, it's I'm almost always out on Bregman, but I don't begrudge people who want that type of player in their lineup. And like
you said, third base it's a weird position. They felt like last year it was deeper than what people thought it was, and because you could find them out there until all the injuries hit and then all of a sudden it was you know, who has third base ability? Is there a catcher that has it? Like I mean, it got a little ugly for a while.
Yeah, it would be interesting to see what they do with Jazz if he does go to New York, because then they'd have to find out if they want to put him back on the outfield or maybe stick them back at second base or something. They need to do some mixing and matching. If that were the case, but it's one of those good problems that teams have. Should they sign Alex Bregmant potentially, Let's talk Blake Snell, who did have a bit of an abbreviated year, missed a
little bit of time at the beginning. He was a late signing. I think it was I think spring training had actually started before Blake Snell had put pen to paper on a contract. But what he did was excellent. He had a three twelve Vira, a one zero five whip and a thirty five percent strikeout rate. It's Fanny Kelly. If you look at his cy Young season, then you
look at this past year. He was actually better this year in terms of a lot of those era estimators, in terms of the command, in terms of a lot of things. There was actually a step up from what he did when he won his second cy Young the previous season. Again, the landing spots stopped me. If you've heard this one before. The Yankees, the Orioles, the Mets, Atlanta and San Francisco are the probables here. Do you think he'll go back to San Francisco? Is there a
chance that he goes somewhere else where? Are you at on Blake Snell at this point.
Well, first of all, can we just take a moment and get really excited that he pitched into the eighth inneen for the first time ever in his career this year, and I think he did it twice. Yeah, So if he's not parlaying that into a bigger contract, then they're just doing it wrong. But yeah, I mean, I guess I see him going back to the Giants, so I feel like it's that's such a friendly ballpark for him, and like you said, he improved on so many of his metrics that I think that he would see that
as a as a positive place to land. I do. However, you know, again, he's going to follow the money wherever that takes him. On the Orioles would be interesting, but I can also see him on the braves. Those are kind of the three that make the most sense to me. I don't know how long of a contract he's going to get because of his track record being so up and down and all over the place. I've seen some that are like, let's you know in five six years. I've seen some that are like, no way as anybody
going to go more than three. But you know, you get a full season out of him, I think he would be worth a pickup for pretty much anyone.
The thing with Blake's now the last couple of years is the start of the season have been they've been awful, and then he picks it up in the second half and he's been just fantastic. Any concern from a fantasy point of view about trusting him, maybe, especially if you're looking at head to have leagues where maybe he turns it around in August, but you might have lost your playoff spot if you trusted him as your first starting pitcher.
You never know what the year is gonna bring. But each of the last two seasons really poor starts where people have even debated dropping him, and then he's turned into a cy young worthy pitcher. Each had lost two seasons. So how does that factor into you drafting him next year for fantasy?
Well, I have a tendency to never draft Blake Snell, and I know I said that about Bregman too, But it's funny that we fell on both of those guys so close together, because I hate rostering either one of
them for different reasons. If you can get him as your sp two, I think that it's worth it if you have a solid as people like, if you're gonna if you're gonna do pocket aces as a strategy, Okay, Like I mean I would still want a better race for my second one, but if you want to get to kind of higher octane guys, but you have one that's much much more solid and much more reliable early in the season, once you have a track record like
he does. Yeah, as long I mean, as long as you draft him knowing that it's going to get ugly and he's going to have some like nine walk starts where you just don't understand what happened. But I would be more willing to draft him if he goes back to the Giants, I think, than almost anywhere else. So that's that would that's going to influence my decision a lot.
Yeah, I mean, we can't forget about the injuries, the year in year out inconsistencies. I only drafted him one time last year, and I did I think eighteen leagues and it was coming close to draft season. It was like in March when he fell around or two because he was unsigned, and I figured, okay, getting a bit of a discount, I'll draft him. It did work out. But I am in agreement with you that he's not
somebody that's generally a target for me. There just some quote unquote safer options, although who is safe among starting pitchers at this point you never know, but perceived safer options that I can get in the similar kind of range as Blake SNeW and I feel like what he did in the second half is going to have him a little bit out of my price range, probably depending on landing spot, but as of now, I think he's he's going to be a costant, a pretty penny come March,
come February March, whenever you guys are starting to get into your drafts. Freddy Peralta is another guy who is a little bit polarizing for me. He had a fine season. It was nothing to flow you away though three sixty eight Era one twenty one whip. He did reach two hundred strikeouts, which is a big deal. Still had a great strikeout rate. Now the Brewers have a team option. I think it's twenty two million. I think they're probably
going to pick this one up. I haven't seen any news since we started recording earlier today that they did pick it up, but I think Kelly the likelihood is Freddy Peralta ends up back in Milwaukee.
Yeah, his team option is actually only eight million, so I think for sure while headed back there. Yeah, because on free agency he would he would make significantly more than that. But he's kind of in the I include him in the in the Blake Snell chat where when he misses, he misses bad. But I don't mind him as an SP two either, So he'll be back in Milwaukee. I don't mind that as a landing spot for him, so, but yeah, I can't see them passing them up for eight million.
I was looking at the yearly value of his contract at this point, which had been twenty two so forgive me there. Yeah, but I think Freddy Peralta is ninety nine point nine percent chance to be pitching in a Brewers jerrasey once again, although they do love to piss off their pitchers. Corbyn Burns last year declined the option, Devin Williams this year. I think it was over a
million bucks. Again, they do like to make some business decisions that are not generally player friendly, But I do think Freddy Perlta is pretty much a lock to go back somebody who had one of the bigger surprise kind of breakouts this year for me was Anthony Santander. Forty four home runs, one hundred and two RBI. He scored ninety one times. The batting average wasn't too pretty at two thirty five, but you don't really care considering you
got forty four homers and one hundred and two. Riviis probably going back to Baltimore if I had to place money on it. But some of the other potential landing spots are Washington, Cincinnati, Toronto, and Seattle. He goes to Cincinnati, that might be a fifty home run season, Kelly, But what are you thinking right now on Santander in terms of landing spot and in terms of your interest level heading into draft season?
You know, I ended up drafting him a lot of places last year without a lot of interest in him. I feel like he fell to me a fair amount, and I thought, oh, he has like thirty homer possibility. Like in my head, I was just like, okay, thirty home runs and he's in a decent lineup, So popping forty four was just that was just a bonus on top of a bonus. But I see him going back to Baltimore. But the fantasy player and me wants him
to go to Cincinnati really badly. So if he does that, I would bump him up a fairmount just yeah, because like you said, I think it would be worth around probably six to seven more home runs.
So if you were to go to Seattle, though, I mean, and that would not be my favorite thing. I think in all likelihood it's probably Baltimore. But it is interesting to see Washington. And again we're using some data from the athletic and from MLB trade rumors, it seems like Washington could be an interesting team this this winter in terms of maybe picking off one or two big names. Do you think this is just, you know, maybe some speculation.
Do you think there might actually be some some smoke to the fire here.
I feel like in some ways the Baltimore players get linked to Washington. I don't know if it's a geography thing, but it seems like that's they get tossed in a lot with the two teams. But I think Washington has the ability, like if they decide that they're going to not go all in, but if they're going to go partially in starting like this year and hoping that some development of the players that they've gotten through trades elsewhere continues to development. I could see them going after him,
you know, he's thirty. But with hitters, I don't worry about it quite so much as quickly anyway. So yeah, I think the Nationals are a relevant team in his case, but I think I think it'll be the Orioles so not the Mariners.
Yeah, I wouldn't. I wouldn't love it unless the Mariners do get a few pieces, and then you can think they'll play off of each other. If they get Alonso and Santander, adding into Julio and Randy Rosarana, you figure, Okay, the ballpark factors will be offset by the talent in the lineup. But I don't wish Seattle's ballpark upon anybody. They're just unless you're a pitcher, of course, and then it's like it's pitching Mecca. But I mean, in terms of hitters, you can't really do too much in Seattle
unless you are just super super talented. With the way that the factors have gone over the last couple of seasons, specifically, last year was a dark year to roster Mariners hitters. Let's talk Willia Domas, who also had maybe not a breakout year, because he's had seasons that could be called breakout years in the past. But thirty two home runs, he stole, twenty one bases, one hundred and twelve RBI he hit two fifty one, which you'll absolutely take the Dodgers, Brewers, Braves.
I've even heard the Blue Jays potentially thrown into the mix here as options. The Dodgers do seem to be the team that has He just seemed to be linked more to the Dodgers than any other team that I've seen so far, and it does feel like that's the way the wind is blowing that LEAs is going to be in California next year.
Kelly, I agree with you. That's everything that I've read about him kind of heads that direction, and yeah, he would slot right in the left side of that in field pretty easily. And you know, again with them, they have all of the same problems where like where do you want to play Mookie? I guess you can play what seven spots and you bring Adamis in. It's like his strikeout pros prowess is infuriating sometimes, but the amount of pop you get from a guy with shortstop eligibility
in that situation. I like him in the National League. If he stays with the Brewers, I'm good with that too. But I think he'll be like you said, I think he'll be on the West coast somewhere. Ironically, they haven't been tied to him at all. But I did read yesterday about the Padres how they might ironically need a short step, even though like two years ago they had
like eight short steps on the roster. Are so I wonder if they might come in as a dark horse, depending on like what the market is shaping up for Adamis to be. But I would guess Dodgers.
If I had to, Padres would be hilarious, like their whole roster of shortstops Tatiast Merrill, Kim. I mean, I think Machado was initially a short stop like everybody. Everybody was once a short stop, and then they eventually have a different, different place to play on the field. It works out though, it tends to work out there. I mean,
look at Jackson Merrill. He moves off a shortstop and then he puts up one of the one of the best rookie seasons we've seen in a long time, so good that he may even dethrone Paul Skins for the Rookie the Year, but that's the show for another day. Marcelo Zuna was also on our outline, but it looks like his club auption is going to be picked up if if it hasn't been already, I think they'd be crazy not to take back a forty home run, three hundred hitter with a one fifty four WRC. Plus he
was a player in a half last year. I'd imagine he's going back to Atlantic.
Kelly, Yes, yeah, I think they've already exercised it, or they will for sure. Yeah, So yeah, he'll be there, and it makes sense like we said he was. He was a in the draft this season, so next year he'll the price will be much higher for him. But he still has tons and tons of power.
So well, the utility only designation keep him off of your teams or is that something that we just don't need to worry about as much anymore, considering Ow Tawny and Rooker and everybody else is going to be just utility eligible. Is it something that you're going to factor in a lot? No?
I Actually I've been writing the outfielder profiles and that was one of the things I say is I'm like, when you have a hitter like that, that's quote unquote clogging your utility spot. Like let let him clog it. It's fine, Like just pretend he's got second base, Like it's just one part spot in your roster, and that's just where they are. So you're not gonna you're not gonna regret having them. Just don't draft too many of them.
Yeah, I don't even draft two of them, depending on you more some of them. Yeah, something you can just start one and there's something to look out for. Even with Brent Rooker, who I think he'll get outfield back initially or eventually, but initially he's going to be utility only depending on where you play because they different games played thresholds, But just something to be aware of as
you're drafting your teams. If you draft Otani, then that kind of that kind of takes care of the utility spot for you.
Yep.
Christian Walker is another name that is headed to free agency. Seventy two runs, twenty six homers, eighty four ribbies in a two point fifty one batting average, not quite to the same level as the past couple of seasons, but still very very good production at a pretty weak first base position. Diamondbacks should probably do what they can to get him back, but I'm also saying the Astros, Yankees, and Mets that are linked to him. What's your prediction
with Christian Walker? Is he going to be back in Arizona? And what's your interest level?
I love Christian Walker. Every year I go on at least two podcasts and talk about how no one drafts him and everyone should. His oblique injury last year kind of a little dent in that. But I think I think he'll end up in Houston. The Diamondbacks will make a push for him, but I think the Diamonbacks are going to look a little bit harder at pitching in free agency than so I can see him in Houston.
I've also seen him link to Seattle, but again, like it's kind of those same teams where you know what you and Seattle can use him, but if he goes there again, you're just kind of in a weird like hitter's graveyard. And so I'd much prefer that he is in Houston and having him bat behind Tucker and Alvarez would be that would be a really good landing spot for him.
I think Houston would be the best, although Arizona's offense last year was the best in baseball, so I don't think it would be bad necessarily, But yeah, either one of those two teams would probably be the preferred landing spot. If he goes to the Mets, you'd figure that would be a replacement for Pete Alonso, so they'll probably wait
for that domino to fall. And then the Yankees, of course, who are in on probably everybody this offseason, as they probably should be considering what happened to them this year the World Series going the way it did. I think they're probably gonna not want to be embarrassed like that again, and they have the money to spend, so we'll see if they end up spending it. We had Cody Bellinger on the sheet, but he did off back into his contract, so no need to really talk about him much. Shane
Bieber is also on the list, just two starts. He looked like the steel of draft season for the first couple of weeks and then Tommy John surgery, so I don't think he'll be back until probably a couple months into the season. But some potential landing spots Cleveland, the Dodgers, the Rangers, who are in on every pitcher coming off of injury. It seems at this point, what's your prediction for Shane bieber Kelly? Where do you think he'll end
up at? What's your interest level heading in the next year as well?
I don't have a ton of interest level unless he's like again, the discount would have to be really high because when he pitched it, like he said, he looked good. But that's just a few different arm injuries. I think
for him that would scare me off. I can see Cleveland going back after him, But like you said, the Rangers have this very weird infatuation with with pitchers coming off of injuries, and you would think that, you know, the one that they most recently did would kind of deter them from that, but they don't seem to care, So I can see him landing in there too.
If I were to throw money, I'd say probably Cleveland, but it's a bit of a toss up. Considering the injury timeline, I think he'll probably miss the first like two months of the season, although people are coming back sooner and sooner. From Tommy John it seems like it was fifteen sixteen months, and then it was thirteen fourteen, and now it's just over a year, so you never know, but he won't be ready to start the season. I think that's something that we can be pretty assured of.
There's a bunch of other free agents here, Kelly, and we are pushing up against the clock. So I want to throw it to you, is there anybody else on this list, whether it's Jack Flaherty, Sean and Ayah Walker Buehler, who else is somebody that you're gonna be keeping an eye on over the next couple of weeks and months as free agency really gets.
Going in earnest, I have a lot of I have some weird interest in Bueller, and I also want to am excited to see where tay Oscar Hernandez lands. I think because he doesn't right you know, he doesn't havetion. He he came out of not didn't come out of nowhere,
but he just got in the right lineup. And and so Fernandez lands in another lineup like that, or goes back to the Dodgers, like I feel like you got to move him up the ways just because he seems to he seems to play well, or with the team around him, or he plays down if the team around him is doing nothing, but always call him in the home run call contest when he's facing a lefty and and like I, like I said, I have a thing
with Walker Buehler. I just feel like he has so much talent and he's not He just hasn't like put it all together. And I'm not saying that I think that he will put it all together, but I'm just wondering if, like maybe, given how he performed in the World Series, like maybe there's a little bit of a renaissance coming. But I'm shocked that he's thirty, so I would have put him. I think in my brain he'll
just always be like twenty three. So you know, so that those are the two that I have the most interesting.
How about you, well, Buehler is I mean, what he did in the playoffs was just so night and day from what we've seen from him this year, you know, a couple of Tommy John's no more sticky stuff. You wonder if he'll ever fully get back to where he was. But I feel like we got that glimmer of hope in the playoffs that yes, old Walker Bueller still exists. He's not dead. He is still there, even though I would have never expected to see that kind of production
from him. Again, I personally would have told you three weeks ago that he's cooked, he's done, there's nothing left there, but definitely some promise, And I wonder if that will really push him up draft boards because people just remember, you know, what have you done for me lately? Is kind of the big thing in a lot of fantasy sports.
Baseball is no different. People will remember those those outings over the final couple weeks of the season, and maybe he gets pushed up a little bit too high, but definitely got my interest back with him. Jack flaherty is the one that is super interesting to me because he's
been around. I think he's pitched seven seasons in the majors, two of them great, five of them terrible, and he's coming off of the best one where if he'd stayed in the American League all year, Jack Flaarity's probably getting top five cy Young consideration, if not even higher. But do we trust him now, especially if he goes to another new team, which would be his fourth team in the span of what a year and a half, getting accustomed to a new environment, new coaches, et cetera, et cetera.
Will he be able to recreate that magic that he had this past season. I'm hoping he goes back to the Dodgers. But Jack Flaherty is somebody that I'm really interested in, and I'm not really even sure what to do with drafting him just and ranking him because skills wise, he's probably top fifteen or so, but he should probably be in the twenties, if not the thirties. Like, he's a really really polarizing player for me as we get into ranking and draft season for sure.
Yeah, and all I'll say about him is he has Minnesota twin written all over him in my opinion, so's that same sort of injury risk, but coming off a decent year, and they tend to know what to do with them right up until they get injured again. So I feel like Minnesota would be a pretty decent lens but for him.
As well, Minnesota has really does some great things with pitching over the last couple of seasons. If we add him into that mix, you got him and Lopez and he got over and Joe Bryan, Like that is a formidable rotation. They have a really solid pen. You know, their lineup was actually surprisingly really good this year. I think there were top five or seven if you look at wOBA, WRC plus and things like that, So that
would be a kind of a scary one. I thought the Twins were going to make some noise in the playoffs. It turns out that that didn't exactly happen. A yeah, a bit of a rough run over the last couple of weeks of the season, but I think there is definitely room for them to add a couple pieces and grow. And you know that division is not exactly fantastic, so I think they'll probably bounce back next season. But Kelly, it's been great to record with you. It's been a
lot of fun breaking down these free agents. I want to give you just a chance, just let everybody know what you got going on. If there's any articles coming up to Plug or any other podcast, I'll let people know what you got going on.
Yeah. I'm going to be a fair number of baseball podcasts in the off season, for sure, with different hosts different times. I think I'm doing like two a month at this point. Right now, I spend the vast majority of my time I'm in charge of the hockey betting model at betting pros. So that offer that you were talking about, We have a ton of stuff going on over there every day. And hockey is my favorite sport to bet on because not everyone does it, so the
lines are a little bit better. But so that's my plug for that. But yeah, otherwise, baseball is my favorite sport. I will be around talking about it and getting in on the article is probably it's starting late December.
Absolutely, make sure you're following Kelly over on Twitter at the Wonkie Penguin. You can find me at Joel Rico ninety nine and let us know in the comments. Where are your favorite players going to be headed in a free agency? What kind of money are they going to be getting and how will that impact the way you view them? For Fantasy Baseball on twenty twenty five. But for Kelly Kirby, I'm Joe Rico. We'll see you again next time here on the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast.
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