Leading Off, June 20th 2024 (EP. 844)

Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Bros. MLB. This of course is leading off brought to you. I bet three six, five, bet five bucks, get one hundred and fifty bonus bets when you do It's be Joey p that's the Welsh. What an incredible intro. It makes me smile every single time Fantasy Baseball through the night and every afternoon right here on the channel Welsh. I've seen it, I don't know about fifty times now and in the words of Michael Keaton, it keeps getting better every time I see it.

It's it is the catchiest song.

AI is evil for it and it is a great cut. But we do have to figure out to figure out like maybe a day that we played it, we do it too much.

I think I think it's gonna get hated.

No, no, be sure why nobody know what we do is we run it this season and think next year we do a refresh. You know.

I feel like we're gonna have to do multi now here's the deal, or maybe a new song, like maybe every.

Year the tone the show changes.

We're gonna be like a Game of Thrones one where it's like off and then you a crown on and yeah, we'll do something like we'll have to have versions TV show.

I think that's fantastic. All right, let's get to the news. Let's start with Garrett Cole. Four innings, four innings, yay. He returned to the Yankees on Wednesday. I don't know if you would say he's like the best Garret Cole performance. The Orioles, you know, are certainly a team that is as a real, real good lineup in Baltimore, that's for sure. Sixty two pitches in this one, So Welsh, what'd you take out of your boys? First? Start back with the

It was okay he started.

I thought you started off pretty timid, you know, leaving the ball in the zone a little bit. It didn't look like swinging miss stuff. The mix didn't feel great. He got hit a little bit. Then he obviously picked it up. I believe it was a third inning. He struck out the side and then he you know, he ended pretty strong, healing and went around sixtiest pitches year over year.

Stuff. Here is the info.

Bastball was down around a mile and a half over last year. He was averaging ninety six. He was around ninety seven. In this one. He did I'm sorry ninety five. In this one he hit ninety seven and a half. The cutter was down about a mile per hour, the slider was down a mile per hour. Those are significant enough. Maybe it's rust, it's still working into it. They also tapered back the innings, which I don't think a lot.

Of us expected.

So I would if I were grading this, I would probably give this like a.

C plus B minus. This is a B minus type.

Started this AC plus.

Well, I was gonna maybe give it a C plus. But like you know, he had that really strong ending on the strikeouts. He didn't get blown up or anything like that. He just didn't go deep. Stuff was down a little bit. Definitely something to monitor as me the resident Garrett Cole supporter here and ranking him as high as I do and just kind of jumping back in. You want to see him stack and build back on this. So next start's going to be very important to pay

How many innings does he go? But I don't know.

I think Garrett Cole fan should feel pretty solid. It just doesn't feel like the time if you're gonna take Joe's side in trade, it wasn't out.

Oh no, that time has passed. That was in the big striking performance in the minor league thing where it's all again, it's sunshine and roses and the minor league rehab starts because he's inferior competition, limitation of the innings, just working his way back. I'm not worried about Garret Cole in two weeks. I'm worried about Garret Cole in six weeks. That's where my worry comes out.

And that's why.

And my worry is Kyle Bradish. It's the exact same pattern basically we have with Bradish. Similar kind of issues comes back for a little while. Everything's fine. No it's not Jacob de Gram everything's fine. No, it's not. And I don't want it to be the Vlo being down not great. That's not what you want to see. How

Now, I don't I completely disagree with that.

I think of his time, the peak period that we live in currently in this timeline was after that ten strikeout performance in the minor leagues.

But the biggest moment of.

Trade value has not happened yet, and it will happen once he gets to five or six innings.

If that, you know, here would be the thing.

If he starts to get five or six innings, strikeouts are there, but that velo kind of keeps going down, that's going to be a warning sign a little bit more. But I'm telling you right now, his peak trade value has not happened yet. It's just in our current time that has passed.

So our listeners messaged me on the on the Twitter machine and he was like, what about Tanaka? And I was like, yeah, Tanaka was a guy that not to go with the surgery and stuff like that. But also Tanako is never the same picture he was from Japan or that first spurt with the Yankees where he was dominated after never again beat fouts. Holy moly, how much of your budget did you have to allocate to get

I got that song made in thirty seconds, that entire song with all its lyrics. I used three prompts and I got that song.

And we got the peanuts and cracker jacks in there too, which I was very happy. That made my heart smile, because this is your show, everybody. Bobby Miller. Five runs, two strikeouts, six and the third innings. Now, look, it was against Colorado, WA and Colorado, so I think that's the only thing. So we can't get too ben out of shape about this. It was good that he was there. Good that he was back six and the third innings. Okay, you don't love the run total, okay, Welsh. Any thoughts

Here, like it was just good, you know, love and lost and it was just nice and he showed up and well, but.

I mean, look, the positive is you got Bobby Miller back. Yeah. The negative I know there's somebody a manager in my home league who's got Bobby Miller and Garrett Cole. So she was very happy, like, yeah, I get all my pictures back on the same day. But boo, because neither of the outings really were exciting.

Yeah, we kind of said, like in Colorado wasn't great, so Velo down just to tick about half a mile. Prower in this one. Slider was down as well. Sometimes we had Colorado based things on like spin and just effectiveness, so that you know, that could have definitely played a role in but over a Milt Prower down on the slider. As far as his stuff goes, though, he got he did have eight wisths in this game, but every single one was only off at the change up, so he

Ninety seven. Yeah, that's good. We're happy with that. No else, I'm happy about hitting Royce lewis eighth home run. Why am I just not picking Royce Lewis every day? What's wrong with me? I just go right to the.

See He said that because he had like an zero for four day and then he told his manager. He was like, I don't believe in those slumps. He's like, I don't believe in falling into some slumps, so don't worry, and like, so the guy just doesn't stack hitless days on top of itself. But yeah, Royce Lewis, right, Risslewis might have forty homers and have missed you know, the first two months practically.

Yeah. Also, Bryce Harper launching two solo shots yesterday. I'm mad because I picked Harper two days ago. I was gonna yesterday. Yesterday, Yeah, yesterday, get too. So I'm a little annoyed. He almost said, Justin Bieber because I was talking about him with my daughters two seconds ago. Really, Tanner Byby, I saw the b Biber to me, Uh Tanner Bieber.

Bay Bee Bay baby bay baby.

Uh So Tanner Tanner Bieber shrink out twelve batters in six innings. Tremendous star from him. Josh Naylor in that same game three for four with two dingers. Some other big strikeout performances too, Garret Crochet another eight k's and six and Hunter Green nine strikeouts, nine in six and

I feels said very vague.

He's gonna start I don't know if they said he's gonna start running or start getting into games in August.

Nah. Now he's just I don't think he's going to be.

Very much of anything fantasy relevant this year. But to your point, maybe into the plants. Also like a Frankie Monta, so they've got actually a pretty decent three.

You would just love that.

Monta is bad. He's a little bit. He's like ball or nothing.

Give me, give me like a innings eating ground, like really solid.

Like Kyle Hendrick, who also a big strikeout game. I didn't put in the show sheet because well it's Kyle Hendrix. But Razor get very excited about the about the Reds. Uh, just for fun. Zach Geloff again continuing home run streak. Another home run against the Royals yesterday. Sean Murphy four for four with two dingers. That was fun. Randy Rose Arena, what a weird fun day for him. Had a single, a double, a walk, hit by a pitch, scored a run, stole a base. That's a full day, Like, that's a

It's kind of lost, but still at Homer to Jessica, that's okay because Jackson Merrill hit another home run.

Rookie, lookie time, another dinger for Jackson Merrill. What is happening here? Welsh? Unbelievable for this guy. Like he is red hot right now.

I told you just don't be too dismissive yet of the rookie of the year floating away from him. I'm listening super low ks. He is hitting two seventy nine. He has a better expected batting average than he is currently putting out there. His barrel rates climbing, his hard hit rate is climbing, double digit percentage launching, all degree launching, all three of those. These are solid numbers for really good contact rate for a guy that does not strike out.

He'll be in that race.

Also called up Tyler Black is back back in Black for the Brewers. So there you go. We'll call up there. But that's not the only rookies we're talking about, because it's Thursday, and you know what that means. It's time for prospect and with the Welsh, with Chris Welsh, who knows a thing or two about prospects. So Welsh, who are the prospects down on the farm that y'all won't talk about today.

Well, we won't be talking about a Rovas Martinez because he was called up right. He's up in the mat and not playing by the way I think this, So they're gonna play him this weekend.

They didn't like the matchup, so that's a great start.

That's really exciting.

No, we're not.

Gonna target James Wood yet, but Dylan Cruz has been called up to Triple A to join him, so that outfield is incredible. We'll see when we get the hashtag free James Wood in the near future, but it is not today.

So here are some thoughts.

One of the most prolific young hitters so far in the minor leagues has not been somebody that anyone has you would expect if I'm like, hey, who were the top guys, You're probably gonna rattle off everybody, but this guy's name because he was once a diamondback, then a guardian back to a diamondback, and he's now in Triple A. Davis and Dela Santos, who we've talked about a few different times.

Here's truly interesting.

Dela Santo's, originally a third baseman, has done some first was playing some outfield, destroying the minor leagues. Well, things might be changing. He had not been playing third base at all this year, but in Triple A. He now has six games logged at third base in Triple A, and that is important because the Diamondbacks are kind of out on Johannio Suarez. They are looking at me. Yeah, Local is kind of getting ready with him. And then what else happened? Jordan Lawla got hurt again. He was

In the lineup.

So with him at Triple A, with the Diamondbacks playing him in Triple A at third base, and Johnio Suarez probably a couple of weeks away from probably getting it designated for assignment, I think we can see de la Santos soon and he could play in a couple different spots. So you're looking for big, big power in at Diamondbacks lineup in a big offensive lineup where there's going to be you know, runners in front.

That might be the guy and they could use that. They could use that thump of the milliy order. Look, if they signed Suarez, they brought him in there to be that. You know, they knew where they were getting guy who's gonna go a low batting average, gives him pop. But like it just hasn't worked out. And I picked up del Santo's weeks ago. In fact, I think when you made the first piece here about him on prospesting with the Welsh and I went and I watched some

Yeah, And the biggest change is the third base. He's playing base again.

And I think was like, okay, well maybe we can move Lawla over there and get him up there. But Lala's going to be on for what was a couple of weeks with the.

Ham sign and then I'll read back to it.

So like him playing third base is kind of the big changer. All right, here's a couple of pitchers we can take a look at. You guys know of Shane Boz So I wanted to bring up Shane.

Bos in this world. Over his last two starts, he's gone eleven innings.

He went five and then six, struck out eighteen and only walked three. And here's the big deal, because walks, they had been kind of a thing for him, but he had just won in his last outing.

He was stacking walks across the board. In his last start.

When he took a look behind the scenes, he was sitting around ninety six, which you love to see, and he had fourteen whiffs in that last start. So Shane Buzz has been a little bit dicey. I think we're on the press of piss. I think he was even lined up to be a guy that could pitch like today he's not. But I think maybe early next week. So if you want to stash Shane Boss because he's out there, because people are like, what the hell's going on?

You could do that.

Another one who has never reached the majors, and this would be hilarious if they do it. Pirates Brandon Ashcraft, but Welsh, we have Jared Jones, we have Paul Skins. You know what, Let's just get the whole set of rookies out there, because Ashcraft is in Triple A on the year. He's got a three point zero six ERA great, one point zero six whip awesome, and.

He just got pushed up to Triple A.

He's got two starts under his belt where he's given up only six hits one and run struck out eight over ten innings. He's got a mid nineties fastball, a high eighty slider, which in his last start he had a sixty percent whiff rate on that slider, and that rotation's kind of jacked up. They don't even have a full set of five starters. No one coming out here

And then Joe.

The last thing is we're actually seeing Jake bloss double a pitcher for the Ashles, get called up today. That has been something I brought up multiple times. Who or whom are players that could jump from double A. So here are two guys that I have written about before, but we're getting closer. Who could jump from double A to the majors here very soon? Someone said it just in the chat a second ago. Tampa Bay Rays Carson Williams. He has the highest WRC plus of any player in double A right now.

He's still being held down because it's the Rays.

He's got ten homers fifteen stolen bases while hitting two eighty nine.

Was that Caveero has kind of come down a little bit.

Batting average is still there still some bases, but this might be a defensive upgrade putting Carson Williams in there, plus the offense. I think he's a guy they could just make that jump to get in the lineup and then Angels Caden Dana as far as a pitcher, young twenty.

Years another guy you mentioned before.

Yeah, And part of the reason is I think they've had him here because they don't want to put him in the PCL. PCL can ruin confidence just overall, it's a bad thing for pitchers, and in some spaces they still haven't moved him up. But guess what he's going Berserko. He has a two point three to one er twenty year old pitcher, two point three one ERA, and he's coming off of a seven inning, nine strikeout performance in

Those are the players that I'd be prospecting this week.

There you go, everybody. Make sure if you want more prospecting with the Welsh, you can always head over to fantasypros dot com and check out all of his work there too. All right, let's get to the threes ups and threes down here. Cole Reagan's two runs, seven strikeouts and a loss to the A's He did to lose Freddy Parolta bounce back yay. I wrote about him earlier this week about buying Freddy Parolta because I know the ERA was high, but the XCRA was good over the

I guess if I had to pick one of those, he.

Was thirteen days or something, sains he laid his last start, something to that effect.

That's what I would I would go with if I had to pick one of those, would be the layoff. It's just like that's a tough team, they make a lot of contact, they don't strike out a lot. They're going to extend it bats, you know, Josh Naylor, Jose Ramirez's a.

That's a tough team to go against.

And he wasn't. I mean, you know, when he doesn't have that swing and miss stuff which the Guardians took away from him.

You know, I think the.

Extended period of time off him not going deep into the game. I think that's all the effect. I'm not playing any injury card with him right now.

And tarik'skouble we talked about on cleaning up yesterday. S earned five runs, four earned a, four innings in a loss to the Braves. So, you know, bad start to the game, but still, I mean, everybody's human.

Yeah, I think you know Zach Wheel.

As well, bad start all of a sudden, he's the third guy for this young It's just so funny. One bad start on the board changes so much. Injuries actually not a lot to get to mostly positive for mostly Clinton. Kershaw three innings in his first minor league rehab starting. Hiya, Rancho Cucamonga. I just like saying Rancho Cucamonga. I just I don't get to say it very often, so when I get to I.

Can't. I can't roll. I wish I could.

Oh wow, by the way, I can't too. Oh. I take a question from here too before I forget j J. Russo Welsh, what's your thoughts on Jonathan Cannon? Real quick? Any thoughts on Canon?

I think they're gonna I mean as far as like, is he going to stay in the rotation? I think they're going to continue doing that.

Uh.

He's never been a big strikeout guy. I think he's done a really good job of like inducing not great contact, which I think is a big plus. And I think he's got some really good secondaries. I think he's like a solid fourth starter for the real team. He's a streamer for I mean, he's white Sox, so he's just he's more of a streamer.

Fred Dinger of the question for me, Joey p Sha Goldberg get a last match? He's awful. No, he shouldn't. He's awful. He's a he's a menace to himself and others. Is he still ask Brett Hart? No, Like, I think he's teasing. He wants to have one more match or whatever it is. You know that whole Did you watch the WCW thing by now.

But because it's on ice or whatever, like I can't.

It's all on demand, no Amazon Prime or maybe after it's done premiering, it'll end up there, so.

I don't have I just do all streaming now, I don't have cable.

Just ask Brett hard about Bill gold Watch. I literally went to go watch it last night. I was over my house.

We'll watch it. See, that's the thing we lives. Just come over. Like if I lived as close to you as Donnie lives to you, I could just say, come over my house, we'll watch it all together, and then that'd be fun.

Move out to Arizona, come on down.

Yeah, right, a thousand degrees there. I can't do it.

You'd love it.

My bald head can't handle it. Kyle Bradish underwent successful Tommy John surgery, so he will be out all of this year, pretty much all of next year. You're not going to see him next year period, but hopefully twenty twenty six, Boys and girls, here's the guy that I basically forgot about. Josiah Gray working on a minor league rehab assignment. A double allow, two runs and three hits are five innings, so there's another name, maybe the you know, the rotation. Gods will be kind to us and we'll

He is turning it around like it's so hard. You can't look at the scope of him because it tells all the bad stuff in the beginning. But you know, he's starting to get hits. He wasn't striking out, he's walking. I actually think he's like a really solid buy right now. But it is like, lol, when he gets scratched or hurt or whatever it is.

See, Jersey's going to come over. Jerry lives in Jersey. Come on over watch the WCW thing. We'll order some food to be fun, get some beers. The Dodgers put Walker Buller on the fifteen day io with get this we wash right hip in alimation.

After his blow.

Because he well, he did take a ball off of his leg during that start, so they decided to use that for the il stant the student athletes. Oh so good, so good. All right, it's Thursday. You know what that means. It's time for the best bets the day with Joey

My buddy Dennis Chuller, who I've talked about has him as a who has Louis Heel. I'm meeting up with him later today and we are meeting up to go watch the Luis Heel start.

I thought you were. I thought you were going to meet up to watch the WCW documentary. That's why I thought you're No.

Sorry, I don't like they play those.

Where are you going to watch the start? Where you go?

I don't know.

Might go to a little cold beer and cheeseburger, maybe maybe maybe a little buffalo, I don't know.

I don't know.

We'll see who knows, who knows where the day goes. I'm also looking at Louis Heel under two and a half earned runs at minus one sixty three, which is expensive. So instead of going for that juice, I'm gonna pair it with Yankees on the money line, which is a safer bet than the run line. You'll need to win by one there. So the Yankee run line along with Heel under two and a half earned runs plus one ninety eight. When you put those two things together, that's

Man? I got served up a big old slice of humble pie yesterday.

Yeah, got a stone cold me to this week?

I had read two great days and then just got annihilated yesterday.

So back to basics.

I am not caring at all about the time of day these are playing, so I would remind everybody make sure you're watching live whenever you can, and you're giving the opportunity watch live so you don't miss any of the picks, because some of these picks are going to probably.

Happen in ten minutes or so.

But first up, I'm going with Seattle Mariners first five money line. Let's get back to basics. Luis Castillo is on the mound, thank you very much, minus one twenty money line first five for Seattle. Next, I am doing a money line full game parlay Dodgers with Gavin Stone. A couple people have been sitting in the chat and do they feel comfortable about Stone?

It's Colorado.

I know feel comfortabout anything in Colorado, but I do think Stone can.

Rattle off a half decent start.

Regardless of the point, I don't think the Dodgers are dropping that game, so I'm taking them, and I am pairing that with Kansas City behind Seth Lugo, who's going up against the A's their money line, So Dodgers Royals full game money line paired out together that is right around plus one forty, so some good plus money, and then I'm I'm gonna kind of stick with this for a little bit. Didn't work yesterday though I almost had it,

So lefties have been killing them.

So McKenzie Gore five, Luis Castillo four, pair them together, get plus one oh seven. If you want to get a little bit fancy. You could do mckenzi gore at six strikeouts and you'll get better money.

That's where I'm at.

Short slate probably not adding a lot, but betting pros dot com slash Welsh, bettingpros dot com slash Joe.

Follow us today and download the Betting Pros apps. Start betting smarter, not harder. Why would you want to be harder? That makes no sense at all. And use the tools man the propet cheat sheet, Propet Analyzer, amazing stuff. Sink your sports books for free. Those are the best bets of the day or Thursday. In Major League Baseball, Welsh came to an end, by the way, something glorious. The Mets win streak with Grimace came to an edit seven to zero. But so that's it. So now it's onto

Stock I was gonna I was gonna go Sesame Street, and it's like they should be the Guarba guy.

They should just be the I think they've already been that for a job brouch home run calls today, I'm going with ti Oscar Hernandez in Colorado. That's what I want against the lefty, That's what I'm looking for. Looking at the board today, again, not too much movement here. So no, it doesn't look like anybody in this board had the Bryce Harper to home run day or the Josh Nailer to a run day. So I am safe from elimination today, but it's getting tougher and tougher to

And we're about to go to a wheel here soon. That's how.

I don't know why you just stick with the wheel. The wheel has been kind.

To We could, yeah, we could come back two.

Homers of three wheels. I want to.

Say, oh, you might be right about that. I think Gunner and before he died, well, you're right, that's what it was. I should go back two tell you do it.

Back to the wheel, bro, guess what, go check.

It out next week. I'm gonna go with Julio today. Give me Julio jump start a little streak here. God, if I just went with Harper yesterday, I could be closing in.

I'm not.

I'm telling you the odds, the bookmakers odds of Joey being gone before I make the board. That thing has gone to big negative money. Joe's gonna be gone before I get on that board. It's just there's nothing else we can do about it.

It's a race to the finish. Uh. Some people think that you're right that the opening every day is too much. It's forty seconds, it's forty second.

But it's like a very specific song, like like I think it should be whatever.

Happened to predictability, The newsman, the paper boy, evening TV.

Those are all dead, all those things.

Everywhere you look, there's a heart. I'm here to hold on.

You're doing a song that I don't know.

Everywhere you look when you're lost out everywhere all alone, Yeah, d d home exactly. Look all you did was smile the entire time, And every time you had to watch Bob zaggont on Full House, you had to watch that intro first. And you know what, Now, I'm gonna play it every single day. I think what we do as I'm around, we're playing that every you.

Do one of two things.

You treat it in a very like CBS Friday Friday like they do, or the Brandon of the Jet Joe will be gone for twenty.

Look this elbow's fine, elbows working. Look at this. Look at the elbow. It's good. Perfect.

We do a game of Thronesy type of version. Maybe, like a break we just lean into the TV versions.

That'll help.

Maybe we'll do like a super Mario Brothers one year, we do video, you know, maybe we let the Peanuts and Crackerjacks vote on the twenty twenty fourth Sea. Yeah, I mean you, I mean who better than me and you for Mario and Luigi costumes? I mean script rights itself.

Right, like a break one.

Sorry, I guess so you Jesse and I'm I'm the bald guy. So I got a girl.

Now, you'd be a better Gus.

I should, I should be Walt and you should be Gus for sure.

Yeah.

By the way, somebody in the chat said YouTube, you can watch that first episode of the WCW thing, So there you go. Okay, Well, and by the way, I did have John Stamo's quality hair in high school. I did. I did. You're right, Lee, all right. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids, Enjoy your Thursday everywhere you look. You got it, dude, You got it, dude. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy

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