Leading Off July 18th, 2024 (Ep. 866)

Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Bros. MLB. This is Leading Off Live, brought to you. I bet three six five Bet five bucks, get one hundred and fifty in bonus bets when you use the promo code leading Off only at bet three six five. It is me Joey p. That of course is the Welsh that it's you, the Peanuts, the Cracker Jacks. Welcome back everybody from the All Star breaks sort of kind of we still have a day off from baseball before we come in here and chat

What sorry, sorry everybody? Sorryybody improvement, I would say, oh, st hey man, Yeah, that's about.

How trying to hit every note, you end up hitting every single note the right ones.

Or none of them. So sometimes when you try to hit them all, you hit none of them. That's about how the start of this was. Yeah, we're completely out of practice. Apologies for your ears everybody.

We're not checking ourselves though in anywhere tomorrow.

This is no, no, no, We'll be good.

We're okay. Just don't get worried about us. We're okay, everybody. It's fine.

We were a little out of practice, but I'm very glad to be back with everybody. It was very I don't know, it was disjointed. I was very disjointed this entire week, not having all of you beautiful people talking to live. But glad to be back. Glad you guys enjoyed those videos. We had a couple of fun ones and we are back in the saddle.

We are and look we were going to the whole thing about the anthem and then you know there were reasons for it. So now I don't want to make you know any reasons about anything anymore, which is it's like, why can't we have something fun for a second and like just enjoy something being bad like I want to, But now I feel guilty about I don't know. I was at the Foo Fighters concert last night a city field by the way.

How was that singing?

Incredible? I mean, much better singing great second time I've seen them. Unfortunately the concert got cut in half. The irony is they tried to squeeze ever long in because of the lightning and the horrible thunderstorms that were coming, and literally they started singing every long had to stop. They were trying to squeeze it in because the knew they might not be able to come back. And I was like, I thought, I you promised not to stop

Oh, show interesting home run. I'm glad we're talking about that because the one big debate if you guys, and this is another fun thing, this will be like you know, like piecing. It's like a show.

It's like a series.

If you want the origin story, go back and listen to the Fantasy All Star video. Because the one big like argument debate we ended up having was about Jared Durant. You would put Kyle Tucker in and we went back and forth about Jared Durant, and Jared Duran goes out and wins freaking MVP in that game and looked phenomenal. And yes, Otani did of course as well. But wow, you talked to me about some Jared Durant.

Oh. Jared Duran one of my favorite guys going into the season. He's been a category filler all year, and I mean filling up the categories. I love him in Points League. I love him in rot. I mean I felt like every show he did, whenever there's some sort of value conversation or rankings about outfielders, no matter what

That was fine? Actually it was very confusing how they were explaining it. But then it was like, I gotta tell you, I think the whole like you have this many baseballs was actually really stupid because it was like they lined up the forty to the time. Just get rid of one of them, then give us the baseballs or get rid of the time. You're making that more confusing. I thought the structure was good. It was a little bit long, but I liked the top four guys going in.

Well, mine was Garcia and I should have listened to Miss Misch was like the hometown guy never wins, and he's right home that guy never wins his thing. But I thought I wasn't even that. My whole thing with Garscia was guys who generate their own power, and Wit was guys who had the stamina to get through this weird athletic trial, because that's what it is, It's an

Yeah, it's kind of tough because I guess you could be like Raynaldo and Grayson for Reagans and if you I like to do that in trade sometimes, like figure if you can do the cross off, So if you cross those guys off, then it's like Volpy for Miranda, Neto for Ian Hap, and Profar for Lane Thomas.

I don't think so.

I think I Reagan's I like the most. Lane Thomas has stolen so many bases in the first half, Bagman and I actually I've talked about this format, Joe, where our home league it is first half rodo and there's a champion crown. The season's over at the all Star break. Then we redraft in the second half and we play head to head, and as what we did last night,

Still listen to Q and A. If you got questions, We've got answers. Drop him in the chat. Here's one from Shane trade Zach Gallen for Garrett Crochet. Who do you like more rest of season? This is a tricky one. I ever thought we'd be here at a tricky one. I have my feelings, but I can't wait to hear yours on this one.

I would go Crochet because I would too.

I don't think.

I just don't think Crochet is going to be limited at all at this point. I feel very confident. So I did some CBS hits this past week, and I did one yesterday, and we were talking about the second half, and they're asking who is the player at the trade deadline, the biggest player to be traded, And I think there's a lot of guys on the table. There's actually trade rumor right now that's out that the Mariners and the Rays are talking. They've been talking about Eastack Pradies for

All right, let's play a little game here, Welsh, I got a game for you. I was looking at some eras and ops's. I want to get your take on if they can get better here in the stretch runt of the season all start of Dansby Swanson eighty seven games ops of six thirty two Bloch. He's also hitting two twelve. Is there any improvement coming for Dansby Swanson or is this a guy that is just uh, you know, I said to the time this was a weird signing for the cub I did not think it was the

I think he improves, but I don't think he's awesome. So, like, here's the deal. He's hitting two twelve and that's not good.

So it was calling Carol for the record, by the way, with a six thirty five ops, they're like right neck and neck. So I assume you would say Carol over Swanson has the better chance to pick things up.

Yeahah, yeah, absolutely yeah, Like I uh, for Swanson, the improvement is just that he will be better, but I don't I don't know if it'll still be relevant. He's got a two just about a two to fifty expected batting average. He does have a career high in his hard hit rate, and his barreling is just about the same. Those are a couple of metrics i'd put together to look and just go, okay, Well, he's also performing pretty

Here's another one, Androsamenez eighty nine games played so far this year, five homers, forty five RBI, hitting just two fifty two ops six forty three. Again, he's either some of the worst ops's of goll qualifiers in Major League Baseball six forty three. That's pretty paltry. He doesn't have fifteen steals. Is a men as a bylow for you?

I am going to go on the BI low, Yes, simply because I think this team is really really hot. He ended July two hitting two ninety five. June took him way down, but he had three Actually every single month besides June he had hit over two sixty, which is a definite positive. And he has had three or more stolen bases every month except July. But also, just like you know that ballpark that I was doing this in my defense, by the way, just a funny little

I have a few more to throw at you on the hitting side, but first let's talk your Carlos off the ledge. Would you keep Helio Ramos or grab Rhys Hines? I think I know the answer, but help Carlos here.

I would keep Ramos. I still think Ramos as Reese is like going crazy?

Is going crazy?

I just like I will be shocked if it holds in the second half.

Yeah, I agree, Cody's talking about Condon, which a guy we broke down the show. I am not nearly the Condon guy everybody else is. We'll see if I'm riding wrong over the long term, I'd get the Colorado thing, but whatever, Colorado doesn't feel like what she used to be. A couple more here, I want to throw out Glabor Torres. Eightalm runs, thirty five ARBA hitting two thirty one, A six fifty four ops. Clearly has been a huge disappointment for the New York Yankees this year. Do you believe

You maybe want to do that, like do you believe it? A? Thank God love?

By the way, I would get craft for singing on the show, I just want to point out, well, she's now sung twice on the show, so don't give me a lot anymore for me singing on the showing a.

Lot people give you crap for it. We sing all that, but you, I will say, one disaster of putting you and I together. We're both like singers, and we're probably like the top end of people that want to sing on podcasts one of one of one of a plural way. No, I'm not. I'm not super optimistic. Could it happen, sure, absolutely, But everything has just been bad and this is like

Switch around to the pitching side. Kevin Gosmin sitting at a four or five zero era. Last year, he was sitting at a three one six over thirty one starts. This year, the whip is at one point three to one the year before one point eight one. Goslin's been one of the steadiest guys in MLB. He's made three straight years of thirty one or more starts. I was gonna say thirty. That's like giving him enough credit. Thirty one or more starts. This year he has been spotty.

Yeah, I'm not a big buyer on him. Looking here, that fastball has just been bad, just dead red middle this year. It's got an almost three hundred batting average against an expected batting average that's quite a bit higher. The same thing has happened with the splitter. It's a two oh seven but a two forty two expected. Those are both worse than last year. Split fingers a little bit more on the zone. Four seam has been higher in the zone. And guess what, he's a two pitch pitcher.

It's so weird. I mean, he's always been a two pitch pitch. Everybody's been dominating, So I don't understand why overnight those.

Pictures have become but those pictures become more inefficient. That's the same thing happened with like Christian Javier, where Christian Javier dominated that one year, then all of a sudden it was like, oh, well, if one of them doesn't work, you're screwed.

Yeah, I guess so. I guess so. In terms of looking at closer spots too, is there anybody that you think has been sort of, I don't know, a struggle bust this year in terms of the closer job that people should be worried about in the second half, if anyone getting replaced in your opinion, when you're starting to look ahead, or as we also say too, this is a great opportunity to start adding some guys in some bullpens speculatively before trade deadlines. Are you adding a set

Yeah, I mean one guy had been at well they were uh well, yeah, one guy had been adding was justin Martinez. It But that's kind of contingent on the Diamondbacks moving Paul Seawald. I think he would move into the closer spot a really cheap one. Tanner Scott's going to get traded by the Marlins and that might leave aj Puck back in because they moved him back to that bullpen roll. So maybe he gets some saves. So

It's important to get ahead of those closer games for sure. I want to run through this great article on Fantasy pros dot com with some of the bold predictions for the rest of the season. I want to give me like thumbs up, thumbs down, Yes, no, on some of these. I'm just gonna throw some of these pieces at you. Vlad Guerrero Junior will put up first round numbers in the second half. That's from you, Welsh thumbe. I'd love that. That's a great one. That's all right, I'm just teasing.

Yeah, I'm big on that's bing. That's my thumbs up, because I do think Marcus is in for a big second half.

Elie de la Cruz will finish with one hundred stolen bases.

I say, no, who wrote the Marcus Simeon one Marcus.

Simon one was Chase Davis from our own fantasy.

Pros Ellie will score one hundred runs in the second half, one hundred.

Stolen bases when all of a sudden, though, he will finish with a whhh.

No think I think I do think he's gonna get to eighty.

I think eighty would be fun. In seventy five more realistic. Jared Duran as a top five fantasy player and becomes a consensus number one heading into twenty twenty five. No, I agree. That's Mike Mayer, by the way, So you've been spending too much time together the two guys.

It wasn't about Maulcastle.

Well, I think he had is quote on that Francisco Lindor finishes the year as a top seven overall fantasy player. Do you think that's achievable?

So this is like the second half, He'll be a top set seven in the second.

Remainder of the season, remainder of the season, second half, whatever you want to call it.

I'm gonna say no, that would mean like someone like Soto or Judge or Ellie would have to.

Now, so now I don't think so Paul Skene's gonna finish the second half?

Is the consensus SP one in fantasy?

Agreed?

I do think that that's all worm saying that one.

So, yeah, we are going to talk about schemes. I think is the number one sp next year?

All right, let's see if you know who this is, code I Sanga will be one of the top second f pitchers in MLB and fantasy down the stretch. What do you think about that? Oh?

Do you want me to guess who wrote that? Is what you want?

No, No, I didn't the chat. It's actually Scott Engel. By the way, Peanuts and it's someone named Peanuts sick cracker Jack. I think.

I'm gonna say no.

All right, very good. Now there's a bunch of these on here. Go to the Fantasy Bros dot Com on the MB section. Check out the rest of them and all the there's there's ideas and stats to back these all up. And I thought they were pretty fun to kind of throw out there. Speaking of fun, the Brewers, the Dallas Kiko experiment for them is over outright to Triple A Nashville. I don't think you're gonna see him again. I think they've seen enough.

I heard no fun though.

Well at another spot. And so the Brewers is gonna be kicking tires. Uh maybe deal Hall. We'll see, I don't know. We'll see how that goes. Noahs Kinderguard said he's gonna shed a couple pounds and he's gonna make a comeback next year. Will Noahs Enderguard make a team in twenty twenty five? Wells yes or no? Okay?

So out of spring training or are you saying, well.

Out of spring training, and I know he's gonna someone's going to take a flyer in spring training. Yeah, because that's the nature of spring training and pitching.

Big no, big old fat no, no, no, A cinder guard is done.

Oh, I agree, I agree. Let's run through some injuries here. Matthew Boyd struck out seven, allowed one run, zero earned in three innings on Tuesday in a minor league rehab assignment. So keep an eye on Matthew Boyd in deeper leagues. Is Sterry Ruiz remember him zero for four minor league rehab game? Uh? Yesterday? And Alex Cobb allowed one run in three and a third innings. He's also working his way back. So is Tyler Molly too. Uh on that elbow issue that Tommy John he struck out five in

Of Tyler Molly right now on ESPN?

No, not on ESPN's zero. We have everything is zero on ESPN. Let's say CBS it's three percent. ESPN, it's zero percent, CBS, it's eight percent.

Close seven percent. Now I would be adding this guy in. I mean, why wouldn't you add this guy speculatively?

I would, Yeah, I think so. I mean I think the Rangers would are gonna need and want maybe some rotation help. There's a really interesting thing that popped out today too, And this is this weird like where are the Rangers at as far as like competing for a wild card in the division?

That's where they are.

Well, there was a rumor that Nate Evaldi might be a trade option that they might explore that.

I said this a couple of weeks ago, and I think I want to bring this up again, and I think it is the Rangers are a weird team that can have cake, can eat it too. They have Molly coming back, maybe to Gram come back. They just got Shores are back a couple of weeks ago. They could move some pieces of this rotation still pretend like they're in it, quote unquote. They're five games back of the Mariners. That's it, seven and a half out of the wildcard.

But that could be one of the things, like if a guy like Molly were to come back and they felt that they can optimize by moving Evaldi and then Molly could move into the rotation. Maybe I don't think it really happens.

It.

Molly's an interesting speculative one. I'm just not sure, like I'm running to the wire to go and pick up Tyler Molly in speculation, Like I would wait till he's healthy, he's back, they say, hey, we're gonna put you in the rotation and he's gonna get regular starts, then I might be a little bit more interested in him. Once he's healthy and in the rotation, I think you're good. I also just don't think he's a guy that like, ah, crap,

All right, let's run through some fun things. There's no official bets today. Tomorrow we'll be back with the regular schedule programming. Aaron judge hit sixty plus regular season home runs plus two fifty Aaron are judged to hit plus sixty three regular season home runs plus five hundred, and he love for either of these specials.

What's he at right now? Thirty two?

Yeah, somewhere thirty three.

So then what is the sixty?

It's sixty thirty four thirty four, We're both wrong. Sixty plus home runs plus two fifty sixty three plus home runs plus five hundred.

I might that's sixty is interesting. I'm probably not placing that type of bet, but it's I mean, it's within target. Right now.

Paul skeans one hundred and fifty plus strikeouts, you get him minus two to twenty five one hundred and seventy five plus strikeouts plus one forty two hundred plus strikeouts plus five hundred.

Crap, where's he at? That's like, that's going to be the big key. I don't know how many.

I don't think it matter where is he at? It matters like what what's left in the tank.

That's well, but if if he's at like one twenty right now, run those by me. It was one fifty.

It's not even at one hundred right now.

Broh, Yeah, well that's what I'm saying.

He's at eighty nine strikeouts at sixty six innings, and then what were the number whatever in the minor league? So what do you threw it?

One to fifty was minus, one fifty was minus yes, and then one seventy was plus money.

One fifty was minus two twenty five, one seventy five was plus one forty plus one forty to seventy.

I think I might do that one seventy five. I think they're in this right now. There's no reason they're going to push back on it. I think I would play that one seventy all.

Right, league winners, American League Yankees plus two forty Oriels plus three hundred Twinkies plus six fifty Guardians plus seven hundred, and then you got the Astros and Mariners at plus eight hundred and nine hundred. I still love Baltimore three to one. I'm not gonna be shaken. That was my World Series pick. I'm still in American League, Welsh, where'd you go?

I'm gonna go with the Yankees. I'm gonna stick with where I was before. Now, the Orioles I think are a great bet, especially because they haven't made any moves yet. And if they go and there's a lot of rumors, if they go and make a big rotation trade, I think that could change things. I just don't think that's available. And I still I think the Yankees are going to be They're going to be coming.

Dodgers in the National League. Plus one seventy five Phillies plus two ten two to one on the Phillies is where I am still again, Yes, sir, Phillies Orioles, that was my world series going into this year and I'm sticking to it. Braves at plus four fifty are super tempting because if there is somebody in a short series two that I would fear, it's you know, can you get Chris Sale three times in the seven game series?

How about you, Yeah, I am with you. I'm gonna also go with the Phillies.

Yeah, you know.

I was in on the Yankees in the in the off season when it was kind of laughable, and then they just came out and they were ridiculous. One of the highest run differential teams, Yankees are the second highest in MLB, highest in AL and run differential. They also have the best road record right now, and think of how garbage they've been for the last fifteen games. Yet they're still monsters. And they are one of only two teams that have a top five runs scored per game

Did you know I've got street cred? Because according to Larry, Joe just dropped a bra, My junior high students would give him so much street credit. That's right, that's our why I live with a middle schooler. My daughter is twelve or will be twelve in a couple of weeks, and there's a lot of bra and yas queens and aggressive and get it.

I forgot your daughter and my son are like within these days and age because my son in August August, well.

It's looking more and more likely Joey P and family will be out via spring break next year in Arizona. So live shows with myself, Welsh cousin Donnie two who knows live from the backfields. It's gonna be a good time. We'll definitely get this bra Brah, It's gonna be great. Speaking of shows, tomorrow, we'll be back with the regular old leading off. But again, there's no games today, so if you need more baseball fix, I'm begging you go watch. We had our All Star Game special on the channel.

I also did an article with that if people want to check it out.

God, you're so versatile.

I did a lot. It took no break. I did a first year player article where I teared out probably like close to twenty of the first year player guys. And then that video is also linked on the article. So check out the article and watch that video that Joe and I did on the draft and a little bit of futures game.

Yeah, and tomorrow we're giving away the Orlando Cabrera Jersey Fantasypros dot Com slash MLB reviews your last chance. We're giving it away Montreal expos Legend Orlando Cabrera tomorrow, regular scheduled programming here on Fantasy Pros MLB. That'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time, kids, peace.