Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Bros MLB. This is Leading Off, brought to you by Bet three sixty five. Bet five bucks get one hundred and fifty bonus bets when use the promo code leading Off only at Bet three six five. It is me Joey p That of course is the Welsh and we are going to look ahead to the future of Major League Baseball.
That's right. The Futures Game was this weekend.
The MLB Draft was this weekend, and for all the people who love prospects, like the Welsh, this is pretty much Christmas time. So we're going to open up the presence that each organization seems to have under their own respective Christmas trees, and we are going to see where these guys fit, how long it's going to take for them to make an impact in the big leagues. And Welsh, I think we have to start here with the MLB Draft.
The number one pick, I think was kind of a foregone conclusion we talked about on Leading Off Live last week.
I know there was a little bit of buzz.
That it might change, but I feel like that happens every year and then we come back to normal. So let's walk through the first here, and no, the guy at the top was indeed Travis Bozana, who is the guy that we thought should have been the number one overall pick two.
Yeah, and there was thought that he was not going to be the number one pick going on.
So, Joe, if you want to put.
Up that board here, we've got the first ten picks here. The betting odds changed hours before the draft, and JJ Weatherhold was the minus money place. You actually got plus money on Travis Bazana because the thought was Cleveland might not.
Want to do the price tag.
But our first round ended up Travis Bazana at one, Chase Burns at two, Charlie Condon fell to three, Nick Kurtz at four, Hagen Smith goes to the White Sox at five, Kansas City got Jack kagleon JJ Weatherhold at seven, Christian Moore went to the Angels, Connor Griffin the High School Bat went nine to Pittsburgh, and sever King went to Washington at ten. And our storylines out of this a JJ Weatherhold maybe going over Bazana, but Cleveland did
the right thing. Charlie Condon falling to Colorad is like a dream come true for fantasy. We'll talk about that. Later the big power bat fell a little bit. Oakland shocked us by taking Nick kirk We also found out Oakland said after the fact Joe that Nick Kirks was the number one player on their board in the spring and still was, so they got their number one overall player.
And I'd say the other really interesting one besides Weatherhold falling was Jack cagleone fell to six to Kansas City, which no one expected him going out to the top five, but he was announced as a two way player. Was probably not probably not gonna mean too much. I don't think he's I don't know if it really pitched. But I had said this on the CBS broadcast. The Giants did this, and a lot of people in the baseball realm will go, it's just cute, you know. They'll let
him do it and then they'll pick a position. And I used the Giants's reference when I was on because the Giants took Ridgid Crawford and Bryce Eldridge, both two way players, both players they let or in theory, were gonna let pitch and then they cut it and they say, Reggie, you're now a pitcher, Bryce you're now a hitter. The difference is Kaglion is a college player, maybe a little bit more polished.
Maybe they'll feel it.
But there actually were quite a few surprises in that first round.
But the best thing.
About it was it was just good that Travis Bozana did end up the best player ended up going one. There was no haircuts and money shaving and anything like that. He went number one, And we're going to talk about him here in a little bit on my first year player board and how a lot of these first rounders who will end up in obviously the top ten.
Of first year player drafts where they slot.
Christian Moore went at eight to the Angels than the Pirates took Connor Griffin at nine and sever King at ten to Washington. I think Kaglion was a steal for Kansas City, and we were just having this discussion. I feel like welsh Avelt Kansas City. You know, you look at the pitching staff, you look at Bobby wit Junior, and you say, okay, they're kind of like one big middle of the order guy away. Oh my god, they got that guy, Like I think he's gonna be in the major leagues in a year and a half. I
really do I think he's going to zoom through. He made some incredible adjustments with the strikeouts year over year. I've watched a lot of his at bats. He's he looks like a guy who's a very Polish hitter. He's a big kid's got big time power. I just love him and I think it's an actual seat to me. He was the number two player on my board of everybody that I saw and of all the tape that I watched, and Bizano was the one clearly for me,
but Kaglion was number two. And the fact that they got it where they got him, the Royals have a steal here.
The the You know.
The interesting thing too, is there's a part of me that might have even been more comfortable with cagleone over Condon if you're looking at the big they both have.
So they both have big power bats, but they both have chasing issues.
But when you look at Caglione, his negatives thirty eight percent chase rate, which it was the worst by far of any of the first round college bats. He also had a pretty big ground ball rate, but almost ninety two percent in zone contact percentage, which was best among all of the college bats in the first round one max EV and a one to eleven point seven ninetieth percentile exit velocity, which was the best among those college bats. So all this is to say he has a men's
power plus an eight percent strikeout rate. So he chased a lot but did not strike out. We'll see how that kind of fares. It's just a great destination. He's a power bat that's going to be hitting behind Bobby Witt for a long time.
It really is like a really good spot.
All right.
Next up we have the second round, picks eleven through twenty, So Welsh walk us through here.
All right.
Detroit took Bryce Rayner at eleven. Boston they got a huge value in Braden Montgomery. James Tibbs went to San Francisco, Keim Smith fourteen to Chicago. Jerangelo his last name always kills me. He's an ambidextrous pitcher Seattle, it's Sinjata. I'm gonna totally screw it up. But Jerangelo, we're gonna get confused about that.
But I have watched the ambidextrous pitcher. I saw the correct I'm sorry I can't say the name either. We'll work on that. We got a lot going on here, this week. But it is fun to think of you know, we have showay O Tommy, you know two way player. We have another guy just got drafted as a two way player. It's fun to think of an ambidextrous pitcher. It's fun to see the evolution of Major League Baseball, and especially a guy with that kind of talent being selected at fifteen overall by Seattle.
Well also that they will let him do this, like that's the thought is they're going to let him do that. Finishing up sixteen PJ Moorlando Braylan Payne went seventeen to Milwaukee, Theo Gillen eighteen, Carson Binge to the Mets at nineteen, and trey Ya Savage at twenty. And there are some names in here I love, specifically the top two in this round. I love Bryce Rayner, high school bat who I thought could have gone ahead at Connor Griffin. I
while watching my stuff, you always love these confirmations. I'm watching and I'm going, boy, this has Corey Seeger feels to me. And then you read after the fact. That's kind of my process. You read after the fact and you see people literally saying Corey Seeger. It's because he'll sit back on the ball explode on it. He's like a big six foot four shortstop. So I love Bryce Rayner. The other one, Brandon Montgomery falling to twelve, was really a shock because this is another one of those huge,
big power bats. He had the best average exvelocity of all the college bats in the first round, ninety eight point seven average x velocity that was number one. He had a great thirty four percent barrel rate in college, but contact issues seventy four percent contact rate was well below average and only forty nine percent out of the zone contact rate. So I tell you all that to say maybe those were reasons why he fell a little bit.
So that was a storyline. And the other storyline was that middle part where Miami and then the Brewers both took high school kids that no one expected.
I love PJ.
Moorlando, but PJ Moorlando I did not think he'd be in near the top fifteen, and Braylan Pain wasn't even on a radar for that, and then they didn't make up for it later, So I actually really hated what Milwaukee did. But those were the shocks. While a few players dropping Brad Montgomery, Trey Ya Savage. No one expected those guys to kind of fall out of that round.
So those are a few of the storylines. And there's a guy or too that will make my top ten first year player that was in this eleven to twenty range.
If you want to know why the Marlins are always the Marlins because they keep drafting high school kids.
I don't know when they're going to figure this out.
It's just I understand they come a little cheaper, but at the end of the day, it's like why they continue. You have to wait for the development longer. There's so many negative things that could happen in there.
I hate it.
It's been a Marlins thing for ages now and they keep on doing it. Let's look at twenty They did well in their last bit, all right, but like it's still philosophically it's a problem. Let's go to twenty one through thirty. Here start with Culpeper. Here for the Minnesota Twins at twenty.
One, Yeah, twenty one, Kaln Culpepper College shortstop Vance Honeycutt went twenty two to Baltimore, Kellen Lindsay twenty three to the Dodgers.
Cam Cam and Nitty.
Yes, guys, everyone mentions cousins of the late Ken Kamanitty went twenty four to Atlanta, Cash Mayfield to the Padres at twenty Sive ben Hess to the Yankees at twenty six. Right, so Cash was twenty five, ben Hes twenty six, Dante Nori goes to Affiliate twenty seven, Walker Janic twenty eight to Houston, Slave Caledwell to my Diamondbacks at twenty nine, and Malcolm Moore the catcher goes to Texas to round out the first round. The storylines here there were a
couple like Ben Hess was not a good pick. I didn't like that. I don't really care about the catchers here. What I will tell you is cam Keimminitty is maybe the steal of the draft, falling down to twenty four.
I was shocked that he did.
I pinpointed that as maybe the best pick in the draft in the first round. The big winners were them because Cam Kimminitty nine to zero in high school, they won a state championships out here locally, but had a point nine ERA and over one hundred strikeouts in college. And he's got mid nineties fastball, which is a huge graded pitch. Three other pitches high school pitching in fantasy is kind of tough, but I think he's polished enough and Atlanta not only a develops them well, but moves them.
This is a great pick and he's going to end up being a sneaky one.
And I will tell you a guy that did not make my top ten, but I am higher on than everybody.
And this was before the Diamondbacks took him.
Slade called well was. I couldn't have been more ecstatic about that. I think he's going to be a fantasy play. Kind of has a Corbyn Carrol feel, a little bit smaller in stature type of guy, but he could run, defensively, play well. There is pop in that bat. There's a lot of good contact, Like this is a five tool player. I had him top like twelve or fourteen going into this draft, and he fell down to twenty nine to the Diamondbacks.
All right, So landing spot matters, Talent matters, A lot of things matter in terms.
Of your fantasy productivity from these guys.
But we're gonna get in dynasty leagues and keeper leagues and even in our redraft leagues because we see these guys rocket through systems At Paul Skeins it's gonna happen fast for some of these kids. So Welsh, let's look at the top ten. Here, Bizana ed one, Charlie Conna goes to Colorado. You and I can find about this one. I don't see it. I understand the stats are there.
I get it.
Caglione is my two, and Connon to me is farther down for sure. You have Chase Burns going to the Reds here at four is your favorite than weatherhol two. He does have a bit of a Chase utterly with maybe a little bit more explosiveness in terms of what he brings. Like Chase Otley was a great player, Hall of Fame player probably in my opinion, but Weatherhilt has a little bit more athleticism, that raw athleticism that I really like. I think he is going to be a
great fantasy player. And the Cardinals are a great organization. Bradon Montgomery you have at six from the Boston Red Sox, then Rayner at seven with Detroit. You have Nick Kurtz at Oakland eight, Christian Moore who goes to the Angels. Christian Moore to me reminds me just a little bit of a little bit of Justin Upton in him in terms of the swing, in terms of the path there, Connor Griffin, the shortstop goes to the Pittsburgh Pirates. There Again, I think Griffin is a bit of a project. But
I want to talk to you about these guys. I know sever King did not make this list. He was top ten in Washington. He reminds me of Byron Buxton. I'm surprised he didn't make your list because I know how much I love Buxton.
When I watch King.
Play, that's a guy that I say, Okay, he's got a lot of that raw athleticism, the baseball stuff. I always thought with Buckston would come a little later because he was such a raw athletic talent. But I watched stever King a lot, and I was surprised he didn't make your top ten. But let's talk about these guys in the top ten, because you have very clear feelings.
About all of them. So let's go through the breakdown here.
Yeah, and just on sever King, like he's pretty close in there. But I think it's really there's a really difficult space for power projection, and I don't see that that's coming because also it's like a more advanced college body. So I don't know how much more physical projection there is for him to grow.
But see, that's why I liked him, because I saw Buxton in him. But Buckston, if you recall very thin, you were waiting for him to project physically, and we can argue about that ever really did, whereas this kid looked a little bit more like a little bit fully formed manchild, not like Jack Kaglione manchild. Of course that is a big dude. That's a dude that's going to hit.
But look, Travis Bozana, I mean, doesn't get much better than this Golden Spikes Award winner four oh seven, five sixty eight nine to eleven twenty at Homers sixteen steals in.
His junior year.
So we could talk more there and take us through the rest of these guys. Well we'll take them through real quick.
So the actual big conversation, I know you're not as big as content, it is going to be Condon versus Bazanna in the Dynasty world. And Condon is there through all of some of the negatives because he's now in Colorado, and I think actually a lot of people are going to put him at number one because of the Colorado side of it. But in going and really digging deep, I was able to get like a lot of like college data information, and those are things I'm going.
To talk about.
It's just hard to not go on. Travis Bazana, I would say the one thing that could hold you back is the explosion. I think I mentioned this before. Twenty eight homers this year. That's more than every single homer combined of the rest of his college career, the Cape cod lead and league, and three years of playing in Australia. He didn't have twenty eight homers with all of those combined to what he did last year, So it was such.
As big output. But his profiles ridiculous.
Forty one point one percent barrel rate in college wide margin, better than any of the other top end college bats. Ninety six average exit velocity. That's an elite number. Only a few other bats ended up beating that. Also, thirteen percent chase rate does not chase, and this is a cool piece of information. I have misrate on sliders thirteen percent, So he didn't get eat up by breaking pitches. He didn't chase anything bad. Had a four hundred batting average.
All the homers stole bases, barrels, the ball listen also go put him in Cleveland?
Where what did they just do?
They opened I was gonna say, well, I shou're talking about Colorado for Condent?
What about Cleveland for Bizana? The balls jumping out of there?
This shear.
They just opened up that right field wall which now is creating this air pocket for left handed hitters that are pulling right side. Donna, it's a great spot for Bazana. Where are you going to Condon? And you go, okay? Colorado is an.
Elite, elite spot. It is literally the best destination.
For him because there is you know, some some swinging with issues that are going on overall, but he has like elite power.
He the best college bat versus high.
Velocity was him eighty eight point seven percent contact percentage above against ninety two plus mile prower velocity Colorado. That's a great place to be, but absolutely destroyed by Slider's thirty three percent slider misrate. It's hard to hit that swing and miss and that's going to be his thing. But he might have forty plus homer and power in Colorado. So that's what's so canalyzing about it.
I guess here's the thing though, I see the same thing, which is I'm concerned about. The thing that I took away from the bats that I watched of his was sure, he's got power. He's obviously a good player. I'm not trying to knock the player. He went number two in the MLB draft, but we see this every year. Will Oh the number three. Excuse me, but he was number two or one on some people's boards. Oh yeah, I thought that he would struggle with some of the better
pitching in the major leagues. Colorado not the greatest in terms of developing talent. We've seen that. We've seen a lot of like talent go there, and we always have to look back on the draft and we go, oh boy, there was a big swing and miss there in the top ten. It happens every single year. I think Chris Bryant at his best is the upside for him. I think Richie Sexon is kind of at his worst is where he might end up, and that is a wide
range of outcomes. Whereas Bizanna, I think the truly special players are the ones that I have a hard time finding comps for, and.
Bizan is one of those guys. When I watch him.
Play He's just he's very unique, and I think though that's what those special guys come around. When I watched Mike Trout, I remember going, I don't have a comp with this guy like because he is just his own thing.
And I've never seen anything like him.
That is when a number one player to me overall, let's go through the rest of these guys. To Caglione, Weirredy kind of you know, touched on a bit there, but it certainly stands to reason that you know, a guy that could be a two way player, will see the power is incredibly impressive, the size is impressive.
Do you agree with me that Weatherholts.
Could be a guy that would potentially be explosive fantasy player? I want to say Bobby Wit junior type. I think a little bit more utly type. But do you see that same thing in his game that I saw?
Yeah, I think some people are gonna have him higher. You know something, when I was going through and putting everything together and really really watching his swing, you know, it actually came across reminds me of Corbyn Carroll.
He actually reminds me in his.
Exactly approach where there is this front body load and he and he gets the bat across the skoodwe Ross's own, just like Corbyn Carroll, and he also hits it like him in that it can be an all fields contact where sometimes Corbyn doesn't lock into that power. But in the same respect though, I actually think like Corbyn Carroll, there is power to be unlocked. He had a ninety five point four average exit velocity that was higher than Jack cagleion in college.
That's really impressive.
And he's kind of a mini Bazana fourteen percent chase rate only Bosano is better ten percent k percentage. Okay, that'll work. And he was just held back by a hamstring injury which kind of made the stats look a little bit lower. Weather Hold is seen by many as, like Bozana, one one of the best offensive contact based players. I don't think you'll have the same power projection, But at the same time, he could be a twenty twenty guy that doesn't strike out, hits for a high order.
Maybe is a leadoff hitter for the Cardinals. I think it's a great spot. I think it's why I got.
Him at number five, and others might have him higher. They might even have him higher.
He's like Bizana with what more speed less power? Is that a good way to kind of trying to simplify it for the folks out there that don't watch a lot of couch baseball, And that's how I would simplify it.
Yeah, I think it's something like that.
I think like Bazana's approach is they have like a similar kind of like keep your hands in Banzana is bat speed attack, ball gets up in the air.
He's a launch angle guy.
Where I look at Weatherhold, he's more of an all field so like both of these guys will sit back a little bit and let the ball travel. That's what creates like great low strike up precentage chase rates. But Weatherhold is about just getting the ball at the bat in the zone to make all fields contact, and that may suppress power.
So I say all of that to say.
He might be a little bit less impactful on the power front, which might hold some of his fantasy value down, but maybe he'll be a great Points League player either way.
He's top five for me.
I think he's going to be a great Points League player for sure, and I think he could be a great rotal player also.
I really like him all right.
Six through ten, who stands out to you the most on this list. Maybe it's because you think they're gonna have a quick path, or because of the landing spot.
Potentially it's great, just real quick nuggets, you know. Brad Montgomery.
There are some contact issues as I mentioned, but huge power and Boston is a great landing spot. He was outside the top ten. I love personally Bryce Rayner. I probably will have him higher than a lot. It was a pitcher even in high school, and the transition has been new, but there's just I think there's so much power and upside to unlock. Nick Kurtz is a safe play.
Twenty eight percent walk percentage in college, which is just absolutely absurd, does not strike out, So this is a This is a phenomenal border like baseline player, but I think the upside is down. I personally freaking love Christian Moore. You were talking about that offensive upside. Seeing some of the updon in him hit for the cycle thirty plus homers.
Makes it ton of contact.
I think he could be super sneaky and Connor Griffin by many was seen as the top high school bat. There are some questions about how impactful his contact and power is going to be, but the kids will eighty seven bases in high school this past year, which is absolutely absurd. So again, there's a lot of upside, but I don't view him in the same vein as the last high school guys like Max Clark and Walker Jenkins. Would rank well above both Rainer.
And Connor Griffin.
I agree.
It's not a bad top ten, and there are some names that are just falling out. One people are going to know I didn't mention Hagen Smith. Some view him in the same vein as Chase Burns. I have them a little bit more separated. Slade Caldwell is another one of those players. There's quite a few more. I am constructing all of it, but this is the very very early post draft. That's the top ten for first year player drafts for some of you sikos that are drafted like this week.
For your first year player in Dynasty. Yeah, those are for the sickos.
Haigen Smith, to me, I think he's ended up being a high end closer. I know people don't want to hear that. I just think that's what he's going to do, and that's okay. But if I'm the White Sox, like that's not where I want to live in my draft right now, with the way my roster is constructed at the major league level, I want to get more position players. So I thought that was a swing and miss for them.
Even though I like Haigan, I just don't think he suits well for them, And I think the pirates with the way that these Jones and schemes have come along, I think that the fact that they went with the high school kid was a mistake. I wanted somebody else is going to contribute soon, and to me, he's more of a project guy.
That's just my I might not be wrong about that.
I mean, Brad Montgomery would have made sense, but they got White Sandford a little bit later, who I really like. I thought Pittsburgh did a good job on hagen Smith real quick. To your point, he's kind of a two pitch pitcher. It's fastball slider. He actually looks like he throws like Strider. But I don't know if the velos will stick quite as much. But Lance Brastowski did a
really good breakdown too. And one interesting thing is how hagen Smith relied on in zone missed contact and how that's gonna work at the major league level because you're gonna have a lot less guys miss inside the zone, and when you're a primary fastball sider guy, we'll see
how it goes. But the interesting thing to think about though on that is that they took Hagen's Smith the White Sox did, and maybe that was the move that makes him feel that bit more comfortable trading Garrett Crochet at the trade deadline now, and maybe they can make that a hitting package that they end up getting with whatever team, whether it's the Yankees or whoever comes calling, that they get a hitting side package built around that because Hagen Smith they view as a future number one
to go with like Drew Thorpe and Hire Ariarity.
Just something to ruminate on.
All right, let's ruminate on the futures game too. Welsh has some standouts he wanted to touch on. So Welsh walk us through these guys.
Yeah, if we're talking about prospects and we're talking about draft there, let's talk about the futures game. Kind of underwhelming overall. Your actual statistical standouts from the game. Cam Collier ended up winning MVP. He had a kind of majestic home run. His swing is looking more and more like Raphael Devers. Just want to put out there, good contact guy, lowering his strikeouts. He's kind of a sleeper
in that realm. Kyle Teel hit two doubles and really might have been the sneakiest standout.
One of them was Drew Jones.
Kind of dropped one in center field, but he just like this guy has power all fields contact again, like you gotta love him. And Drake Baldwin ended up hitting a homer. Kind of not on a lot of radars, especially for fantasy, but it was an opposite field, opposite ish field a home run, so he really showed off the power. Those were your actual standouts, but Joe, there were also some other players who didn't completely show out
that are worth talking about. And these guys right here, these are my guys that you should watch from this game. Bryce Eldridge is one of my favorite Dynasty prospects.
Didn't do anything nuts. He was one for two, he ended up scoring a run.
But we're talking about all these big visitors, the Jack Kaglions of the world and stuff. Bryce Eldridge was that guy last year, the two way player who's now a hitter. I really, I think you're like in the top fifty in Dynasty realm for Bryce Eldridge, Roman Anthony. He wasn't in the Futures Game. He was in the skills competition
and just an interesting anecdotal thing about his power. He was in like sixth place going into this final round, and the skills competition was, you know, bunting and hitting. He ended up hitting like six straight homers and up winning the skills competition and showed off absolute ridiculous power.
And that's what he has built around. And then a couple of pictures I've been talking about if you listen to me in the off season, Emiliano Toeoto pitched two perfect frames and I don't think that had happened in the Futures Game before. Guy going to and having perfect frames.
That was ridiculous. He is a guy that hits one oh two.
James Triantos I talked about him with in my interview in the off season, and Toyota's been working as a starter, and oh my god, if he's a starter, he might be crazy. But if he goes to relief, he's one o two And you're met Brandon Sprout. He had this really good, clean inning where he was touching ninety nine in the Futures game and had a foul hit where he broke the bat on the ninety nine and got
to pop out. Just very impressive. Those are all guys that you should have maybe on your prospect radar here that were in the futures game that weren't the actual standouts that are going to be written about, like the Cam Colliers and the Kyle Tels.
Nobody better than the Welsh when it comes to prospects in my humble opinion. So luckily you get to you here and talk and educate all of us some great conversations. Obviously, can hit Welsh up two on exit is at the Welsh if we have questions about these guys because he gets talked about any of them for as long as you need. Of course, continue to check out all of his work at Fantasypros dot com as well. That'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh.
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.
Kids.
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