What's going on? Everybody. Welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm your host, Joe Rico, and today we're bringing you part two in our ADP Battle series. If you missed Pitchers last week, be sure to check it out. We are moving into the infield today, going to bring you guys two battles at each position, including catcher, for a total of ten. And we have a couple
of fantastic guests on the show. You're definitely familiar with both of their work, Derek Van Riper from The Athletic and Jeff Erickson from Roda Wire Fellas. I really appreciate you taking the time today. How's it going.
It's going great. Thanks for having us on.
Absolutely can't wait to battle here with Derek fight No. Very excited about this. You know, it's been a long time since Derek and I used to do pods together, so it should be fun to do one together for a while.
Yeah, that was part of the reason when I was pairing people up for this, I thought, okay, you guys know each other. We were We took a car ride together in Arizona to go down to one of the games. I forget which one it was. But you guys know each other. We've been familiar with each other for a couple of years, and I don't think there's anybody really better to start breaking down these ADPs. We're going to start behind the dish and we're gonna work our way
around the diamond. We're going to kick things off here with Salvador Perez and cal Rawley, and I'm using the Fantasy Pros Consensus ADP. There will be some differences depending on which platform you are drafting on. Of course, if it's a points league head to head roto, there will be some differences. But I did try to capture battles that are generally about the same on each site. So DVR, let's start with you on this one, Salvi Perez and cal Rawley, which one have you been landing on more?
If you're landing on either of them?
Yeah, I don't land on them very often, but it would be Sal for me. I think there's a chance he slips every now and then you get into a room where everybody just writes them off because he's old. But the thing that makes me a little more confident in Sal is that the batting average downside is a lot lower, and they're both high volume catchers. Sal doesn't catch as much as he used to thanks to Freddy
for meen. But when you talk about high volume catchers, that's when the batting average liabilities become more of a problem for me. For the guys that share the job, I don't care if they hit two ten or two twenty, because you're not taking on as much dead weight in that category. So I wanted to give up a little bit of power, maybe a little bit of run production,
and go the route of salth Perez. I'm choosing from this bucket, but I've found that more often than not, I mean, they're investing earlier or I'm waiting a little bit longer to get that catcher one. These are two guys that I've generally steered away from.
Yeah, you broke my heart and Labor. You did go early on William Contreras at three five. I would have taken him there in that draft just last Tuesday, Derek. But I do land on these guys a couple of times.
But I think you make a really good point about the batting average, and in fact, that's one thing I've been kind of trying to tweak my valuation system is to account better for batting average, because I found myself in this particular draft, I took cal rally, and I found myself chasing batting average for the next like eight rounds because of the amount of bat Betsy gets in because two twenties in play. So you know, I was
aware of it enough to not take Kyle Schwarber. In a number of leagues, I always take our ozuna or a rooker instead, But I need to pay a little bit more attention to that. I feel like there. So if you look right now in retiwar my rankings probably have Rally ahead of Salby, But I think I want to do it the other way around in my next draft.
Yeah, I think that's totally fair. I think the Royals are going to be very careful with South to try and keep him healthy. He's going to get more first base in DH days, as for Mean gets more time behind the dish, and with Raley, the lineup is not good against Seattle, and on top of that, the ballpark is a serious detriment. So I don't know. There's been talk about the batter's eye getting changed, but I don't think that's happening this season. I think that might be
something that they do in future years. Have you guys heard anything along those lines, because early in the offseason there was a lot of talk about potentially making it a bit of a more hitter friendly park, but I haven't heard much about that in a while.
I haven't seen any follow ups indicating that it's going into effect this year. We've talked about it on Rates and Barrels a few times. The center field wall is not like straight on with home plates slightly angled. There's some issues with the sun at different times of day. The environment itself, just the atmospheric conditions aren't conducive to the ball flying in that park. It's a little bit
of everything. It also seems like it's worse on righties than lefties too, so that's something I've tried to factor into my overall analysis of hitters. It's a lot worse for guys going into that park for the first time as opposed to players that have been there for multiple years. So I do worry about the park as far as like a secondary effect on Raleigh because it seems like
for the most part, he's adapted well enough. And look, I mean for catchers easily the most power in the pool ninety one homers the last three seasons sALS second was seventy three, So you are getting that sort of Schwarberian boost behind the plate, but it comes with that.
Risk absolutely, and to your point too, like Seattle, they know they have this world class rotation, they know they have this known deficiency in terms of the batting eye, they know they have this lineup that really struggled to score runs, so they probably did nothing this offseason. I am heads up to them for that.
Horiy Polanco being your key acquisition, I guess him returning is not enough. I thought Pete Alonzo was going to Seattle for sure. They had a bit of an opening. At first, I thought it made sense, but yeah, the bitching is unimbeachable. Five guys. You can probably take those five rotation names and throw them at a wall, and however you arrange them, you could live with it. But yeah, the lineup does leave something to be desired. So I think it's unanimous there on Salvi Perez, not much of
a battle there to start off. Well, let's see if I can put these two against each other on the next one, and that's JT. Real Mudo and Logan o'hapi roughly around pick one sixty. Again, this will vary a little bit, but this has been a decision I've had to make a couple times in my drafts. Jeff, let's start with you on this one, between real Mudo and Logan o'hapy.
I might be out of out of line on this one, but it's clearly Ohappy for me. With real Muto, so much of his value is generated from a speed. They're talking so much about playing him less this year. I'd rather take the guy in the Rise of Ohapi, who I understand has some known deficiencies. He's not gonna run a whole lot either, but I'm not counting on that necessarily. I am looking at the power, the power ability from him. I think there's some days there's gonna be a twenty
five homer season from Ohapi. I'm going Ohapi here.
I like Logan o'happy too. I mean, I think, if I'm choosing straight, I'm with Jeff o'hapis the way to go. I do think the demise of jt Reel Mudo is being overstated in some circles. At least, I think the batting average floor for the position is still high. Even if he's going to give up a little bit of playing time, he's still going to probably be top ten, top twelve and played appearances For a catcher, I'd be
surprised if we dipped more than that. Even in a down year last year, we still had a double digit barrel rate, So he's making enough hard contact to get to the power. I think it's twenty homers and a good batting average with good run production because of the lineup. But I think the stolen bases used to get from jt Reel Mudo those days are probably over. Like fifteen plus steals seems unlikely. You're probably getting five to seven bags over a healthy full season if that. So we're
seeing him age pretty gracefully. I think the injury last year makes it look a little worse than it really was, and some of that may have just been also compounded by year over year workloads, working a ton in the regular season and going to the playoffs, and maybe that was starting to take its toll a bit in twenty twenty four on jt Reil Mudo.
Yeah, I understand both sides of the real Mudo coin. The barrel rate, like you said, was still in double digits. The sprint speed was still seventy eighth percentile. I don't think Garrett Stubbs is gonna you know, take over catch and partial like maybe he gets the odd day here and there, but I don't think he's gonna lose a ton of playing time. But I think still when you look at the Angels lineup and o'hapy, a lot of
it depends on if Mike Trout stays healthy. But I think that lineup is kind of underrated a little bit this season. Again, if Shrow get hurt gets hurt, all bets are off. But I think o'hapy is probably the way I would lean. I had been kind of, you know, going back and forth between the two of them, but I think you fellas have talked me into the logan o' hoppy side a little bit here Before we keep it going on, I'll give you guys a bit of a heads up. We have a great giveaway going on, a
John Smoltz signed Braves jersey. Just a fantastic giveaway from our friends over at Pristine auction dot com. All you have to do is to enter a subscribe to the Fantasy pros MLB YouTube channel, and drop a comment on any video.
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We're gonna announcing the video right here on the channel, So make sure you guys turn on those notifications you can know what to claim your prize. Really a fantastic gift. I wish I was eligible to claim this one, Nfortunately I am not. We're going to move on to first base here, and we're going to start with Josh Naylor and Christian Walker. It's interesting because Naylor essentially replaced Walker out there in Arizona. I have some interest in both,
but for me, I think it's Christian Walker. But DVR, I'll let you start off with this one.
I like Walker as well. I think with Josh Naylor, one thing that's overlooked is the difficulty of hitting for power on the left side at Chase Field. It is one of the worst park factors for left handed homers. Leaving Cleveland, I think he ends up going from kind of a neutral, maybe slightly above average park to actually a well below average one in that regard, I think
Naylor is a good, solid all around player. I think the thing I've always liked about him high batting average floor, not a lot of swing and miss in his profile. All of that's still true. He's not a particularly great runner, So you look at the run count from last year, eighty four seems like a high water mark, even though he's going into a better lineup. So I do think he's going to take a step back from a power perspective. I think that's where That's where my main issue lies
with Josh Naylor. It's just like a little bit worse across the board and being in a more difficult spot. I think it's like a bounce back an average, but at the expense of maybe five to seven homers.
Yeah, that's totally fair. I mean, Christian Walker's batt at Baldata is still so good. Going to the Crawford boxes is definitely appealing. Are you on the same side there, Jeff, I.
Like them both. I think both of these guys are targets for me. Slight worry for me about Walker is the age. You know a lot of times first Baseman kind of fall off a cliff at thirty three, thirty four years old. You know, I don't think this is going to be jose A braw two point zero or anything like that for Houston, but I got a smidge of a concern there. You know he's starting to miss more time due to injuries, had the oblique injury last year,
But overall, I think you're right. I like Naylor though, because what he loses for loses out on a park, I think he gains in lineup. I think he joins an Arizona lineup that just is going to score a ton of runs this year, so I think his counting stats are going to remain pretty steady. You may lose you trade a couple of homers for a couple of points of average, I think it'll all kind of wash out. So I like them both this year.
Yeah, Arizona. I don't think a lot of people would be aware of just thinking about it. They would probably say the Dodgers or the Yankees maybe, but Arizona had more runs than any other team in Major League Baseball last season. With Corbyn Carroll kind of struggling for half of the season, he still ended up with one hundred and twenty of them. So definitely a prolific offense there. I like both of these players. I think i'd probably
lean slightly to more towards Walker. I've heard it. I forget who exactly was, and I'm sorry for not giving them credit. But when you compare Christian Walker's profile to Mattelson Pete Alonso, there's a lot of similarities there that you can kind of just get this same guy who is maybe not exactly the same, but thirty home or one hundred RBI potential several rounds later. So that's kind of the narrative I've bought into with Christian Walker. The age does worry me a little bit, but I think
he is really interesting this upcoming season. These two are going neck and neck on a lot of NFBC drafts, going on to the next battle here, Vinnie pas Quentino and Tristan Casses. A lot of the time these two are neck and neck and the ADP and on the draft boards they'll be right beside each other. Jeff, we'll start with you on this one. Any concern with the bit of the circus that seems to be developing in Boston with Rafa is not happy and Cass is commenting on it that factor.
What does think about that? You know, what does he think about the closing job in Baltimore? I need to know these things. Uh, small lean towards Vinnie here. Although it's kind of funny, I think he piled up a lot of those RBIs in a year where he wasn't especially strong last year. But I think the reasons why he was strong are going to remain. I think he's a smack dab in a great lineup. Uh not in a great lineup, but smack dab behind Bobby Witt and
Salvador Perez. If I want Perez, I'm gonna want to pass Spontino too. I think there is another level still left in him in terms of the power. You know, obviously he hasn't quite gotten there just yet. I think if Cassis gets dealt elsewhere to kind of in the wash of trying to make the playing time work, as was once rumored in Boston, he probably lands in a better spot. So I think you can make a case
for Casses too. I mean, there's a reason why these guys are close and why we're actually and why he selected this as a battle because they are very in similar straits.
I think, yeah, I like both players too. I think Cassis, from a long term league's perspective, is a great target if you're trying to trade for someone a keeper or dynasty league that could give you surplus value for the next couple of seasons he could do it. I wonder if the fallout from things getting more crowded there could actually cost Cassis some playing time at a certain point. I think he could get caught up in that, maybe end up in more of a strict platoon. I don't
think that happens with viny pass Quentino. So as much as I like the Red Sox supporting cast more than the Royal supporting cast, Benny pass Quentino was doing some pretty interesting things in the second half last year, had an injury that cost him time, but looked much more like the player he did before shoulder surgery by the end of last season. It's hard to find anyone in the pool that hits the ball hard often and keeps the k ra as low as Vinni pas Quentino does.
Kind of intrigued by some of the conversation I saw from him. He was going back and forth with Tom Tango a few weeks ago about some stuff he was doing at to play. Just seems like he's very, very cerebral about craft, but also puts together a profile that's unique for the position. You might get a really high average with twenty five plus home run power. Kaufin Stadium is a park that does hurt homers, kind of like we talked about Chase Field earlier. But I think the
good thing is it boost runs all around. So I think this is an overall really solid player. Slightest of edges to Vinnie because I think of their respective injuries. The cassis ribb thing from last year basically just a tear of the rib cartilage from swinging the bat too hard. That gives me more long term concern. That's more like a wear and tearor sort of problem, kind of like a chronic back injury as a as a long term problem,
whereas with pascent Twina. At Pascentino, we saw more evidence that he was just over the major injury, having the surgery and then playing a lot better over the course of the season last year.
Absolutely one other thing real quick, I'll throw in. You know, you mentioned that Vinie's a cerebral player. I think those of us in the analytic community tend to favor these guys. I mean, I still remember, like Brian Vanister, like I wanted that to work so much. I was really a standing for him so hard does never quite happened. But I do feel like we sometimes like to give that little plus to those sort of guys.
Absolutely, yeah, we see a player that wants to invest more in their own development, and that will peak our interest over the guys who, to use an extreme example, like the Rendows of the world, who just don't seem
to care. There's definitely a difference in opinion there, and I agree completely that past when they're close, but pass Pentino gets a slight edge, and I think, especially if we're talking a very underserved part of the fantasy world, which is points leagues, I think pass Quentino certainly gets the edge there. He just doesn't strike out. There's less concern, I think as we've gotten farther away from that labor
and it's I think he's healed. I think he's healed very well, and I think the team is going to be smart about keeping him healthy. He's gonna not just play at first base one hundred and sixty two times. He's gonnadh. He'll get some days off, So I think they'll be smart about it, and I think that pass Quentino is the way that I would go there as well. Before we keep going, I want to remind you guys
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There are reasons to be kind of a bit pessimistic about both of them. DVR, do you have a strong lien here one way or the other.
It's definitely not a strong lean, but you do have to look at these guys and decide who you dig. If you're sitting in the early rounds and want to cover second base. I have Albi's just the head of LTVA literally written next to each other on my overall hitter rankings right now. The main reason for it comes down to support cast. I mean, these astros are not quite the same as the astros that made seven consecutive trips to the ALCS, right like, this is just not
the same loaded supporting cast, and they're still good. We have some questions now about Jordan Alvarez's health already in spring training, though, and he's becoming increasingly important to that lineup in a post Kyle Tucker world as well. So I think Atlanta's going to be more likely a lot healthier in twenty twenty five than they weren't twenty twenty four. They had a lot of injuries and they were key
impactful guys up and down that lineup. So you get healthy Riley healthy, Acunya healthy, Albi's himself healthy, Michael Harris, I think that's going to go a long way towards making the run and RBI counts pop. I don't think we're seeing any indication from this organization that they're going to back off their everyday guys all that much. So I think you're still looking at a possible max playing
time sort of ceiling, which is appealing. So slightest of edges to Ozzie Albi's And you know, with l tv Man, the move to left field is just weird. I wonder if they're actually going to follow through on that, at least as of now, it seems like they will. But I don't think that's gonna have any sort of negative impact on him. I just see a slowly eroding supporting cast around him, whereas Atlanta still looks like it could hit a stride similar what it did two years ago.
Yeah, sorry, I was gonna say. I'll tell his second base metrics are just brutal, so I can understand moving him off of second. He's never been a great defender, but it's gotten progressively worse. But go ahead, Jeff No.
I just think it just overall supports the thought that there's an erosion of overall skills. You know, speed metrics are a little down, the x slug is a little down, the expected batting average was a little below what he did. All these things indicate that there might be a next stage of the decline for him. I think moving him off second might help, you know, as long as he doesn't have like the growing pains, the embarrassment of having
some struggles in the outfield. Sometimes you see that. Sometimes you get like Robin Yellt where it works out really well, where you move him out off of short stop, moving to the outfield. Oh, it's great, it extended his career. Other cases that you just feel like it seems like it's a fish out of water. So I'm kind of curious to see how that plays out. But I do slightly have Albi's ahead of Altuve, And there's a lot of talk about you know, availability is a big ability,
and you know Albi's hasn't had that. But it's always been these fluke injuries, you know three you know, twenty twenty two it was like a broken left foot, a broken pinky finger. Those aren't like chronic muscle type issues or anything like that. Last year fractured risk, fractured toe again. Not the sort of thing where it's like, oh, he's always breaking down, he's got that hamstring again. No, it's not that. It's not that case with Albi's. So I also have Albi slightly ahead of al Tuo.
Ba.
I have had al Tuova ahead, but I think that's something I really need to look into. Like as much as I like Christian Walker and he saw parates, they are not quite Kyle Tucker and Alex Bragman, so that is a downgrade. Altuove's quite a bit older. You know that you guys have made a lot of the good points, and I think that that is something I'm going to have to look into. I think that they're still relatively close because al Tuove he's always just defied the metrics.
He's never been somebody that you would have expected would have had the career he's had to begin with, and I almost want to give him the benefit of the doubt until we see him fall off a cliff. But at the same time, I'd rather be out a year early than out a year late if those are the options, and I think that I'll be's in that lineup. I
think it is the way that makes sense. But there was a report I saw today I think it might have been a Rode Wire blurb that al Tuve is looking more and more likely to be in the outfield. So I guess that multiposition eligibility is also nice. The infield and outfield switch. But yeah, he's he's not what he once was in his postal too.
And they want to make sure it's one or the other. They don't want to move him back and forth. Is that I think his spots point about that there is they really want to focus on. Okay, you will be this.
Yeah, there's been some examples of middle endfielders going to the outfield in the last couple of years tattoos Chisholm. But they do it. They don't do it at thirty five years old. They do it when they're quite a bit younger. So interesting to see how that one will will play out. The other one I have down here at second base is Bryce Terrang and Luis Garcia generally about pick one thirty one thirty five on average. Bryce Tranger getting a ton of speed, where with Garcia a
little bit more of a balanced approach. They did send him down a couple of years ago, twenty twenty three, when he was having a decent year. The Nationals do tend to do that sometimes, but I think that they're both relatively similar in value. Jeff, We'll start with you on this one, Bryce Terrang or Luis Garcia.
I'm a little ahead on Garcia. I think then Terrang, I worry about Terreng's ability to actually hit Still, I think, you know, there's always the green light with both of these teams actually that you know he's going to be able to run if he can get on. But I'm kind of worried about Terang second half. I think they
have alternatives. They're not super strong alternatives, but say if he gets off to a terrible start, unlike the blistering hot starready got off to you last year, maybe there's even a possibility of moving down the lineup, maybe even sitting a day or two here or there. I feel like Garcia is a little bit more on stable ground WUDBR Yeah.
Same overall read, I find myself kind of moving away from second basement in this part of the draft. I think part of it's that I see similar Rodo skills in Andreas Jimenez as Bryce Terrang and Menez available later. I think Bryce and Stott does some similar things. His situation as a hitter looks a little more stable than Terrang as well. I mean from May first on last year, Bryce Terrang had a seventy nine WRC plus you can stay in the lineup every day being that bad when
your defense is that good. But that doesn't mean I want you on my fantasy team. And I just don't see a path to more power. Terrang's not one of those guys you look at and say physically he's going to get a lot stronger and develop that part of his game. It would just take a lot of changes for him as a hitter to become even a league average guy at this point in his career. So it's Garcia for me, but it's a tier that in general I'm steering away from in redraft.
Joe Pisapa will be happy to hear that, because he's been a big, big stand for Luis Garcia this draft season. DVR, I wonder, though you're you're in Milwaukee, you're a Brewers fan, is the lineup? Has it taken a step back this season? You think with the loss of Willia Damas, with the question marks around Christian Yalich's status, what's your opinion on the team as a whole. Do you think they're going to be worse than last year? Offensively?
I think you have to assume a slight step back just because replacing a Dames alone and the season a Damis just had is particularly difficult. So I think Joey Ortiz could be seventy percent of that player overall from a real life perspective, he does it a different way, less power, a little more speed. Ortiz actually ran into a tarp last year and was a much better player pre injury than post injury. It caused some kind of
neck problem for him, so keep that in mind. I guess when you're looking at how they're using him and what he's doing early in the season, I look at guys like Caleb Durban and I can't quite see what the Brewers see beyond the fact that their speed and there's a versatile glove, and they'd like guys they can
mix and match. But you know, you could look at Jackson Turio and say, a Churio is going to be ten percent better than last year, and Ortiz is going to be seventy percent of Willia Dames, and then they're gonna need more out of someone like Garrett Mitchell. They're gonna need to bounce back from Brye Hoskins. It's a pretty long list of things that need to go right for them to hold the level they were at last year.
But they also are not built like a lot of other lineups right now, built more on speed than power. So I think a lot of it's just putting balls in play, putting pressure on opposing defenses to make plays, and it seems like it serves them pretty well. So slightly worse, but still probably getting a lot of things right and beating projections.
Yeah, I've seen them around eighty two and a half in the win total projections here and there, and you know it's you know, they won ninety three last year, so it's quite of a drop down. I don't think they lost. I don't think they're eleven games worse than last year. But on the flip side, you know, some things did work right. As DVR said, I think two
keys are Garrett Mitchell, who DVR alluded to in South Freelik. Also, I think, you know, both of those players need to kind of do a little bit more and they'll get a full season out of Mitchell. I think Mitchell's a really good player. It's just a matter of him being able to stay on the field. But I think there's a chance that he could help advance that cause a little bit. I also think they'll be better and run prevention this year. I think get Woodrof for some portion
of the season. I think Nestor kirk Tez will fit well there. And I like Tobias Myers, who another player DVR snatched from my loving arms in the LABR draft.
Tobias Myers, I forget who it was the other day, but somebody said that, and I've forgotten about this, that he was traded for Junior Camenaro a few years ago, and I've completely forgotten that one. That was just boggling, But it happens, and.
Then released and then released by the Giants, finally lands in Milwaukee and resuscitates his career. But interesting, whiney, twisty path for him.
Yeah, you never know, you never know what these young guys. Let's move on to third base and this one is the only triple battle that we have today. It's a spicy one for sure. Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, and Austin Riley. Now Devers has started to fall a little bit, but he's still generally going in the third round. This is a debate that a lot of people have to make on the third round if they want to lock down
a third basement here. Devers Machado and Riley DVR. We'll kick it back to you on this one, any preference.
I feel like these guys have been stuck together for three draft seasons now, and they're still very close. In my rankings right now, I've got Machado just ahead of Riley. I think the difference for me is Machado runs a little bit. I think there is a little more batting average downside, just that reflected in some projection systems. But Machado's track record is just so hard to bet against. So when you're looking at very similar players, that's something
I can use as maybe a tiebreaker. I just have Devers as a slight downgrade from these two right now, because when you get to spring training and you had a chronic injury that you played through and played pretty well through last year, I'll say too, and it's still a problem in the early weeks of spring training, that doesn't give me a lot of confidence that there's not
something more problematic on the horizon. So I look at Devers and think maybe last year is a more accurate reflection of who he's going to be, if those shoulders are going to just bother him all season long again, not that worried about moving off third base and him being frustrated about that. I think that's he's there to hit, and I think he's ultimately going to realize that. And I think winning is a lot more fun than not winning.
And their best lineup is probably playing Alex Bregman at third and using Devers a lot more as a DH. So yeah, I look at that group and that's the that's the main separator between them right now. It's just like Child's got the slightly longer track record than Riley and he runs. Devers just doesn't seem like he's completely healthy. And we're talking about this in the first week of March.
Both shoulders have had problems with both shoulders. I mean that you got to start worrying a little bit. I think that with the whole position thing, Devers will realize eventually. I agree with you there that like he's there to hit, he's not there so he can win a Gold Glove at third base. And he's locked up until he's I believe thirty five or thirty six, so it's not like he's going to get another big, long term contract after this.
I don't think it really matters where he's where he is in the field, Jeff, where do you land on this one?
Same order as DVR. Joe Shehihen wrote in his Zoos letter when this thing flared up about Devers not wanting to move off at third base, titled it that's what the money's for, you know, after the great mad Men scene. And he's absolutely right, you know, shut up and help your team win. You got paid already, so you need that. I think this hangs over the team for a while. I think this is something that is a negative effect. Uh, he's not playing for a contract, so it's nothing of
that nature either. I also tried not to draft any of these three where they go. I would go a shadow if I was gonna go one of them there. But more often than not, you know, maybe I've already taken the advantage of like a Sodo dropping or or for that matter, Jordan Albert is dropping. So I'm missing a little bit of speed. I'm either looking for speed or I'm looking for a pitcher in this spot. I when I got when I did get William contraras when uh,
when DVR took him, I pivoted a pitcher. I would I would have done that even if like Riley was sitting there for me, or Devers was sitting there for me. I think that's the route I would have gone. Still, so because I like other third basement downstream a little bit more. I like, uh, the two guys were gonna be talking about in our next battle, but also Jake Berger I like, I like Bregman in Boston. I think there's one one more good year, at least out of him.
I think he landed in the absolute right spot. And I end up on a Juenio Suarez often as well.
Not somebody that's talking about a lot. Asuarez was ridiculous in the second half last year. It was the best stretch of his career. I think I agree on the order here that it's Machado at the top, and then it's Riley, although it's close, and then there's a slightly
bigger gap between him endeavors there. You know, I never know how much to factor in the whole mental aspect of things when players are mad TV are you had it with Corbyn Burns last year the year before where there was an arbitration battle debate and then it seemed like he wasn't happy, he wasn't and then the performance kind of lagged behind a little bit that season. That could just be anecdotal stuff, but you do wonder about how much stuff gets into players heads when there's some
discontent within the team there. Does that go into your evaluations at all, DVR, not just with the situation, but for any situations.
Yeah, I mean, I try to get a read on that as best I can. I guess, in the example of the Burn situation, you know, being frustrated about how arbitration played out, I kind of feel like that's more of a motivating chip on my shoulder going to come out and do everything I can do to go get a free agent, big free agent deal and leave like that was that all seemed like that was pretty much written on the wall in that situation. It's it's hard
when we're on the outside looking in. We're going on reports, trying to trust the best beat writers that are there every day and trying to make sure that you know what's being reported is actually a problem in some of these cases, right, It varies pretty wildly, I think from person to person, from clubhouse to clubhouse. So I try to account for it, but I feel like it's a it's a weakness in my game. If there's a skill to be gained from it.
That's that's totally fair. Let's move on to the other one here, and this is the two young and ascending targets a third base, both of their prices arising, one of them more so than the other. So this one, within a couple of weeks, people won't be saying, Junior Cameron Aro is going in the third round of my league? What are you talking about? But Junior Cameranaro and Mark Fiento's roughly around pick one hundred, generally a little bit earlier.
We'll kick it to you, Jeff for this one. You buying into the hype of Junior Cameronaro.
I am. I think that this will be the last year we'll get them in anything below fit. I think this is one of a total star in the making, able to hold his own at twenty at the big league level. You know, defense isn't a problem with him as opposed to Vientos, which I think is something we'll have to watch for in the future. Add in the fact that he's going to get a ballpark improvement over the next two years in terms of how the ball
should carry you. Now, if he were left handed, even be more of a benefit, but I still think he benefits by that. The humidity there. I think that's all going to work in canon Eero's favor. I want to be on board the train. Yeah, I'm already seeing him, Like you know, I play a lot of NBC League formats and I'm seeing him going around pick seventy five there already. So yeah, there's a lot of helium associated
with him. Nothing against against Biento's. I love Viento's too, and if I miss miss out on Kennero, I'll take Biento's in the next round. But I think there's a rounds worth of difference between the two.
Yeah, I think the strikeout rate with Viento's is a concern. The lineup is probably a little bit better in New York. Not probably, it is better, Yeah, but well the ballpark may be negate some of that with Tampa DVR. Are you landing on this one.
I've got Junior Cameron Aro ranked probably about twenty spots ahead of Ventos on my overall hitter rankings, And I realized that the fallacy can be that you're hoping for the season. Mark Ventos just had as like a median sort of outcome from Camanaro, but you're paying the premium because Junior Camanaro's ceilings should be higher. Projections give you probably a twenty point edge in batting average. With Junior Camonaro, I think he's going to hit in the heart of
that lineup. Vento's might slide a little further down just because there's more quality in the Mets lineup as it's built. But man, I keep thinking about the way Steinbrenner Field's gonna play compared to the Trop, and it's not making me run away from Raised pictures because I think that's a good group of pictures, but I think their top end bats have a higher ceilings as a result of not playing in a place that's generally very difficult to hit.
We know the Trop boosts strikeouts and suppresses runs. It's a very challenging environment for hitters to deal with. So two thumbs up on Junior Cameronaro, and I think picks seventy five. I don't know about you, guys, but that's
the rain. Like that end a round five. If I've gone pretty boring with my build up to that point, I'm happy to take more risk on if I draft a guy in the fifth round and he gives me ninth or tenth round value that's not going to ruin my season, And I'm getting the possibility of having someone who might be a second or third rounder next year
on my team. So I think that's that's why I'm comfortable taking on that extra risk and sort of dreaming on the potential showing up in twenty twenty five with a player like Junior cam and Arrow.
So with the hype train on cam and Arrow, where would the price have to get to make you tap out? Where? What would be the point where you say, Okay, somebody else can can take this chance on him?
Well, yeah, go ahead, Jeff, I was just going to say, probably around pick fifty or so, like if he goes into where Royce Lewis was going last year, that's probably too much.
Mm hmm.
That's fair.
I would agree, because I think a lot of the pictures I still like as sp ones are available then, so I'm giving up a lot of value by passing got a picture to take him there. I think even some of the bats that go in that if you get him up closer to the Wyatt Langford territory and even Langford's creeping up himself. I think there's to me, there's more categorical balance than some of the players that
go around that pick forty five, pick fifty range. So that's probably where I would back out completely for redraft purposes, even though the long term ceilings phenomenal.
All right, we are all in. It seems like wheels up for Cameron Aro. You know, sometimes the players just get super hyped in spring and then they fall on their face a little bit. But this doesn't feel like that situation between his talent between the ballpark. I really like the raised lineup around him. I think this is a good spot, and I understand what you said about we're kind of hoping that he has a Viiento's type
of season. But the upside for Cameron Aro is the first round second round player, and I don't think Vanto's can get there, even what the great lineup he has around him. Before we keep it going, I want to remind you guys about the Draft Wizard. Use a draft wizard to get expert rankings, perform quick mock drafts, and receive real time advice during your draft to build a winning team. You might see things like Christopher Welsh hates
your draft. Joe Rico loves your draft Joe Piezopia is kind of whatever on your draft you'll get, you'll get those kind of things. It won't be those exact kind of phrasings, but our team of experts will give you their insights in real time. When you complete these drafts using the Draft Wizard, practice your strategy in minutes at any time, fast realistic mock drafts powered by our insights, and you get live advice and recommendations every time you're
on the clock. So if you're ready to win, head to fantasypros dot com, slash MLB Draft Wizard or download our app, the MLB Draft Wizard App, and start drafting smarter today. All right, guys, we're down to the final position and that is shortstop and we're gonna go inside of the top one hundred. Here we're kind of going in and out. But this one is O'Neil Cruz and CJ Abrams. I have kind of mixed feelings on both of them at DVR. I'll kick this one to you.
I like go to you A Cruz a lot more than CJ Abrams, and I'm not against cj Abrams at all. I think there's a reason to believe he could still take a few steps forward. But the main thing for me with O'Neil Cruz, he does enough damage to get away with the high k rates, So if he stays at a thirty percent k rate, that's fine. I think he had a little bit better against lefties last year, so he's less of a liability, less likely to fall into a platoon, and that team has no business platooning
O'Neal Cruz. Look at that depth, Shart, you can't possibly justify have him out of the lineup on a day where he's healthy other than just like needing a little bit of maintenance. I think the other part of O'Neal Cruz's game that could still take another step forward is what he could do on the base paths eighty eight
percentile and sprint speed. So even if it's not getting to the power more consistently, who's to say he can't go twenty forty And I just I trust that power floor from cruise the ceiling is good in that category. The improvements we've seen with some more exposure have been nice. I just I see a guy that does more ticks,
more roto boxes, whereas the CJ abrams profile. Even going back to last year, I looked at where he was going and I saw more of that sort of Andres Jimenez Bryson Stott sort of player with maybe more stolen base potential. But just given the way he faded in the second half, and I don't care about the casino incident and the little suspend, I'm past all that. He's probably their lead off hitter, he's probably the ever very shortstop.
I just wonder like, is there more power and can he be even good in the batting average category, because I think those are two things that could really kind of pull that value back down to the point where he ends up being at overpriced this draft season.
Yeah, I think we've been trying to reach for steals for forever really, or at least a long time. I've been playing Fantasy Baseball for the last ten or twelve years, and we don't really need to do it as much anymore. CJ. Abrams feels like such a specialist for steals in the third round, maybe in the fourth round that I just I don't necessarily feel that need to take that chance. For with O'Neil Cruz sixteen percent barrel rate, hard hit
rate well over fifty percent. If he raised the launch angle a little bit and hit thirty homers, I wouldn't really be surprised, Jeff, you have a strong preference between these two.
I thought this was supposed to be an ADP battle and not an ADP. I know we agree on everything, you know, because I'm in lockstep with you guys on this. I just what is the ultimate upside of cg Abrams? You know, the hard hit metrics set suggests this is
as good as it gets. And you know, we saw like the the twenty twenty three looks more like an outlier than we you know, because even before the gambling thing, you know, he was already in decline pretty hard in the second half there maybe coming back to level there. We've seen one full season out of O'Neil Cruz. I think that's one of the big arguments in favor of him, is there's still something left to be attained by O'Neil Cruz. There could be a trajectory that he hasn't hit yet.
The fact that he's going to the outfield that that kind of skews both ways again, and we talked about that with al Twov. They except Cruz is younger. You know, this is one of those where you know there's still growth to be had. I just want to see a full season out of Cruise. I don't want to see them messing around with them. Just put them in one spot, let them hit every day, let them hit it against both sides. Let him just do his thing. And there
is nothing stopping the Pirates from doing that. They can do all the stupid non spending things they want, but just getting out of the way of Enel Cruz, just letting him develop as a player, is the best thing they could do this year.
I completely agree. And it's funny because the previous show we did, part one was Pictures, and it was Enosaurus and Nick Pollock, and I think they disagreed on nine under the ten pictures that I have. That's awesome, So we'll see if we can get some disagreement here on the last one. And it's Xander Bogarts and Ezekiel Tovar. I think Bogarts really makes sense from a roto standpoint. He just really balanced. Tovar for me, feels like a bit more of a risk. Maybe it's the swinging strike
rate pushing twenty percent. I know there's a couple of reasons. Maybe it's the Rockies lineup around him. Jeff, where do you land between Xander Bogarts and Ezekiel Tovar in twenty twenty five.
I'm going Tovar over Bogarts. I'm agist here as the old guy in the industry now anti my own age. Now, I just think there's just this could be what we see from Xander Bogart's going for. And I know he had the injury late in the season, but you know he was miserable in San Diego all along, but he
was already starting to decline in Boston before that. You know, I just think this has all the auspices of being a bad Pooh holes in contract there, except worse because Pooh Hooles was actually good for a couple of years. Maybe I'm holding the contract against Bogers, but what does he do? You know he's gonna hit. He maybe hits for average. Maybe this is but maybe not. Maybe it doesn't come back. You know, he's not going to hit
for more than fifteen homers in San Diego. I think at least Tovar there is an upside again, and we're at the point in the draft too, where you can take some chances again where if it doesn't work out, okay, well that's a problem. The two hundred strikeouts are super scary by Tovar, But you know what, he still won twenty six, you know, twenty six and seventy eight despite those strikeouts, still hit to sixty nine somehow. Now gets see he gets the benefit of the batting average in
course field. Give me Tovar every day.
What do you think you are? Yeah?
The corpus situation makes it much more possible for me to roster a player that has the plate discipline of Tovar. I mean, Tovar is one of the more aggressive, free swinging players in the pool right now, but he's a phenomenal defender at short. He's young enough where he could get even just a little bit better. You look at things like the underlying hard hit rates. He hits the ball harder than Bogarts at this stage of their respective careers. I do think while I prefer Tovar, I end up
with a lot of Bogarts. I think I got him in labor. I keep looking at Bogarts and saying, you know, why can't he do something like what he did in twenty twenty three. He's an injury that cost him some time last year, pretty significant shoulder injury that he made it back from faster than expected, but he was a homer and a steal away from going twenty twenty in twenty twenty three. He has to play every day because
of the way that roster's built in San Diego. You got a high batting average floor and you probably have useful production in every single category with pretty good balance. So I like Bogarts more than most, but I would take Tovar ahead of him if I'm looking at those two straight up, because Cores really helps mask one of the major major flaws with Tovar's free swinging approach.
Maybe there will be some drafters who look at it based on how they've already put their team together, where if they've gone a little bit risk heavy early on, maybe they'll offer a Bogart, where As if they've gone a little bit safer, maybe that's where they'd be more willing to take a tow bar. Interesting though, and we finally had a little bit of disagreement. We finally got
to some but that is the way it goes. Smart people are going to agree and DVR and Jeff are two of the absolute best, smartest the industry has to offer, and I really appreciate them taking the time today. I want to give them a chance to just let you guys know where their work can be found. I think if you're familiar with our guest from last week, you know you probably know DVR. But Derek tell us where everybody can find your work.
Man.
Yeah, listen to the Rates and Barrels podcast for five days a week now this season, so tons of content coming out there. I've got some hitter rankings dropping on the Athletics soon if I do right. It's not very often. It is over at the Athletic and I'm over on Blue Scott's DVR over there, so if you want to follow me over there, please please do. Yeah.
It's hard to keep track of who's on the Twitter and who's on the Blue Sky, but follow both locations. Jeff, what about you? Are you on the Blue Sky?
Hi? I am Jeff dash ericson. Just like on Twitter, I wasn't the first to get my own name there, So I'm Jeff Underscore on Twitter and Jeff dash on Blue Sky because they don't do underscore at a Blue Sky either, but I'm overexposed. You can catch me in Serious XM. You can catch me on vsen now five days a week, Monday through Friday at eleven to twelve Best Coast that's West Coast for you guys that are unaware, and then also of course on rote wir just jo
check us out there rodewire dot com slash Try. You can see everything we have to offer. Our rankings. Our latest roundtable rankings will be going up again tomorrow there with four of us in a composite set of rankings to go with that, all of our draft kits stuff there. Just check it out free two day trial rodwire dot com slash Try.
Fantastic sites. Rode Wire's blurb feed is fantastic. It's a great site to subscribe to. You and I mean Rates and Barrels. I think is probably my number one podcast whenever there's a new episode, essentially drop what I'm doing and go put the earbuds in. So great work from both of these guys, and Jeff, I definitely hear you on the overexposed front. I'm starting to feel that way myself a little bit doing three different podcasts this season.
It definitely feels a little overexposed, but fantastic stuff from both of you. I really appreciate you taking the time. Make sure you follow both of these gents, and make sure you subscribe to the channel if you haven't done so, all go check out that show with Eno and Nick and next week Blad Settler versus Kevin Massa Rajon who you probably know better as the Rodo Surgeon. So it's Roto Gut versus the Rodo Surgeon next week talking outfielder.
But until then, everybody, take care, have yourselves a great night.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB