Hello, friends, and welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast, and today I've got two phenomenal guests where we're gonna be talking and breaking down the first round. What does Fantasy Baseball's first round look like? There's a lot of chalk. There's incredible players, of course, as there should be. But what is the wheel looking like? What are the strategies and really what are some of the big questions around how you're going to start your draft? Well,
we are going to talk about that and answer. I've got Joe Rico, of course, who is all around on Fantasy Pros, and the great and powerful Frankie Stamps Frank Stanfel from CBS Fantasy Baseball Today. Frankie, what's up, buddy?
Yo? What's going on guys?
As you know, things are ramping up right now, pitchers and catchers reporting soon, we'll get spring training coming up, so very exciting times. Fantasy Baseball draft season is upon us. Very happy to be here with you guys, and happy to talk about the first round.
Yeah, we'll break it all down. We'll see maybe who can fly in there, and at the end we'll talk about a couple players that we think by next season could be the first round. But also maybe by the back half of this year, who are guys that can jump up, maybe you know, even into the close end of the draft season ending, who can jump up and be a first round player. We got a couple of those fun ones we're gonna do. And we'll also see if Joe Rico can sneak a Toronto blue Jay into
the first round. You got one that's close, But that's about all you're gonna be able to do. Joey, and hopefully he's a Blue Jay at least for the rest of this year.
Oh man, we got to hope at least of the rest of this year. This is how he's going to start the show off. Guys, he's gonna be picking at me like piece of pa what Joe's not here? Wels just takes over that crown of picking on the blue Jay fan. But yeah, I mean, Vladi, we probably got one more year. I'm gonna hope that we sign him to a ten year contract and I think he's probably a first round player this year. But is he going to be wearing Toronto Blue come a year from now? Probably not.
We will see we are going to be looking at the big board of what the first round ranks look on Fantasy Pros. But first I want to tell you guys about the Fantasy Pros Draft Simulator. Level up your fan fantasy Baseball draft prep. With Fantasy Pros Mock Draft Simulator, you can complete realistic mock drafts in minutes without having to wait in between any of your picks. You can see that we've done that on the Fantasy Pros channel.
We will have a couple people. The private mock drafts are gonna open up for everybody soon, but you can jump in the draft Draft simulator and you can just knock down strategies left and right. You can tailor your mock drafts to your league specific settings, including roster configurations and scoring systems. You'll receive instant feedback in draft grades to refine your draft strategy and gain a competitive edge. It'll say, Hey, the Welsh loves your draft. Joe Rico,
he doesn't like it. Those are some of the draft grades you'll get. Prepare confidently and dominate your draft with the mock Draft simulator at Fantasypros dot com slash mock. That's Fantasypros dot Com slash mock all right, gentlemen, let's jump right into this the first round, and we're not gonna like unravel it bam. We're gonna throw it right
at you the first round. According to Fantasy Pros, we are looking at the consensus ranker that we've currently got on here, so things are gonna change over some time. But of all the rankers, myself, Frank, I don't know if you're on there. I know we got some of the CBS guys. Are you ranked on there?
I haven't done it yet, but I do plan to at some point.
Shame, shame, shame. But we do have Scott Why, Scott Why all over the drafts always hates or loves mine. You can check those out. So we've got the rankers on there. The consensus ranks, that is what this equates to. The big board looks as such show Heyotani coming in at number one, Bobby Witt Junior at two, Aaron Judge at three, Ellie De la Cruz at four, Gunner Henderson at five, followed by Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts, Corbyn Carrol. That's your top ten. We're gonna
go to fifteen, assuming you're going into roto. You've got Fernando Tatis Junior at eleven, Lyn d'Or at twelve, your now Varez, Paul Skins, and Julio Rodriguez. That would equate to your twelve teams and your rotos. That is what the first round looks like. All right, bye, folks, that's the show.
That's it.
Now we're gonna break it down like those are the picks, but there's some big discussions to be had in there about maybe where you want to draft, what this entire thing looks like. So the big board is fun, it looks great. But let's dig into them a little bit and let's start with show. Hey Otani, it's pretty easy. You don't have to think too hard about it.
Yes, he is.
Positionless as a DH, but I think people are done with that. That was a big argument that I was making last year where I pushed Otani up pretty dramatically. If you remember, he was going around nine, eight, nine, ten somewhere in there. The position doesn't matter obviously because you go fifty to fifty. But here's the new wrinkle
that's thrown in as well. You've also got pitching. Frank, what I'm curious about is what valuation change is there at all with Otani, who is now going to be pitching. They're say he's going to be pitching in May. And here's an anecdotal thing. We were working on projections in the back half here on Fantasy pros and one of the dev guys shows me the projections and he goes, is this right. It's crazy. It looks crazy when you start to associate the hitting and the pitching stats in
with him. From an auction value standpoint, Otani goes ballistic. And that's what we were talking about, by the way, it was the numbers that look ballistic from an auction standpoint. But Otani is a little bit baseline on if you're playing in a head to head daily format, if you can change him, because my only argument would be is if you're in a weekly format, you're never going to use him as a pitcher. You're always going to use him as a hitter. But you talk to us, he
is not consensus. Every single ranker does not have Otani at one. I just want to point out, but what is your take on Atani at one and the pitching side of this being thrown into his fantasy equation for this year.
Yeah, I think looking at what he just did right first fifty to fifty season in MLB history, he absolutely should be the number one player. But there are some risk factors here because he's not only returning from Tommy John surgery now as a pitcher, he's also returning from shoulder surgery that he had after the postseason. So a little bit of added risk here with Shohotani, but we realize what the upside is. It's massive, sky high. Fifty to fifty just did that last season, so I think
at worst he's in the top three. I can't fault anybody who wants to take Shoheo Tani first.
Overall. You mentioned a few different formats here.
If you play in a daily lineup league, I know a lot of Yahoo had to head categories daily lineups Shoho Tani, if he's one player, he's the.
One one, no doubt about it.
If you can reap the rewards of both his hitting and pitching on a daily basis as one player, there is no doubt that he is the first overall pick in that format. Speaking of Yahoo, I think there's also I think most of their leagues, if not, you know, the default is that he's two different players.
I was about to say, it's not Yahoo where you're getting that, though, Frank, that might be.
It might be ESPN, right.
ESPN and fan tracks both have him as one interchangeable player that you're able to do that. I mean, you guys have that on CBS as well, though. It just you have to be in a daily format, not a weekly, and.
The majority of leagues on CBS are weekly formats, so I mean some people do play in a daily format. In any daily format where he's one player and you can get both, obviously, Otani is the one to one if you.
Split him up. You know, DH and pitcher. I have SP thirty in my rankings.
It sounds like, you know, he's not going to pitch into a couple of weeks, maybe a month into the season as he's recovering again from that shoulder surgery that he had in the off season. But when he pitches, you know, again, on a per enting basis, he could perform like a low end SP one, like a top twelve starting pitcher. It's just you're not going to get that volume. You've got to wait a little bit for him.
And then even once he returns. The Dodgers likely to run a six man rotation, so absolutely no problem with him going first overall, little bit of added risk this year, but I don't think he should go any lower than the top three. It feels like to me that there's a very clear top three this season.
Do you have him at one?
I have in a roto leagues, I have Bobby with Junior ahead of him. It just feels a little bit safer.
You're getting production across the board, don't have that added risk. He's not coming back from any surgery. I don't think the upside is as high for Bobby Witt, but the floor is higher and really in the first couple of rounds that I would just want to play it as safe as possible.
To me, Bobby with Junior a little bit safer than Shoho Toney.
It's very interesting. I'm going to bring up a point here in what I been saying a lot, but I was I felt like you might be insinuating that Otani is not there, Arico. The stats were ridiculous. He is positionless. There is kind of an element to this of like he wasn't pitching last year. The pitching being thrown into this does add a new, little tiny wrinkle as far as like, maybe there is some more injury risk. Is
there anything positively or negatively you'd take. Maybe you bump down show Hey Otani or is he just the clear cut? It ain't even funny if you don't take him one, what's you take on Otani?
So I do have him one. But if somebody did want to take Bobby with Junior, especially a volume player, if you're somebody who's more on the degenerate side like us, and you're going to play in ten or twenty leagues and you get the first overall pick five times, maybe you take show Hey three times in Bobby with Junior twice or something like that, just to mitigate some of the risk. But the format really really is so important. Like we mentioned the Yahoo, ESPN, NFBC, they're all going
to be different. If you're on the NFBC, and a lot of people who are drafting to this point of the year have probably been using predominantly the NFBC rooms. You have the option to use him as a pitcher or as a hitter in a given week, and you're going to use him as a hitter the majority of the time. But there's a chance that maybe three of your pitchers get hurt and you have that luxury mid season to you show Heyotani as a pitcher, So just
that extra security. On the NFBC, I think he's the clear number one there and on ESPN, Like that's just so so far and away. But if you're talking about like a Yahoo head to head league where you do just get the hitter stats versus just Bobby with Junior's hitter stats, I think it's probably a little bit closer than the average person's gonna think. Bobby with Junior was just ridiculous last year as well, Like you're talking about a thirty plus homer and stolen base season when you're
hitting close to three thirty. Like, yes, it's not the same level necessarily, but he also doesn't come with that added injury risk. Our mutual friend Ariel Cohen has talked about for years, how about when Otani is pitching, it's just double the chance of him getting hurt at the plate and then on the mound. Bobby with Junior several
years younger without those big injuries. So I think that you could legitimately flip a coin in a lot of cases, and it wouldn't really bother me so much whichever side you landed on it, except for those leagues where you can use him as both, like ESPN, then it's just it's a clear cut Otani number one.
Looking at atc projections, Bobby Witt Junior projected thirty homers, thirty three stolen bases with a two to ninety five average, one hundred and five runs, ninety three RBI. It's elite. It's a lead of elite Otani forty one homers, thirty four stolen bases, so both in favor of him more runs more RBIs one hundred and thirteen runs, one hundred and three RBIs, batting average two seventy five. Otani takes four of the five categories from a projection standpoint comparative
to Bobby Witt. He does not have a position that goes in favor of Bobby Witt. Maybe the pitching makes people feel a little bit squeamish about it.
It does show.
Up in the ranks, It does show up a tiny bit because the best ranking. There are only two players on the ranks right now that have a number one overall. It is Otani and Bobby Witt. They both have a low though of three on the consensus rank, so they both have pushed down in that three spot. That leads to another question. So we look at the ranks here and the ADP also represented is representative of it because we're talking about all of the rankers that are ranking well.
If you move to average draft position, we've already got data from ESPN, Yahoo's, CBS, NFBC, I think fan tracks is on there and we're already seeing some of that. Their top four is representative of what our rank top four is. So here is the question is it a top four or is it a top three? Those players are show Heyotani, Bobby Wit, Aaron Judge, and Ellie day La Cruz. And the thing that I have thrown out a lot is there's kind of a flavor for everybody.
If you want all of the big stats with no position, it's Otani. If you want all of the stats that are just smaller than Otani, it's Bobby Witt, maybe a little bit more average. If you want all the power in the world, it's Aaron Judge the fourth. If you want all the stolen bases in the world, it's Ellie day La Cruz. Not everybody feels as positive about Ellie, and when I say is it the top three or four, I'm really kind of referring to Ellie because some do
and don't put him in that position. Mister frank sample, is it a top three tier or does it go to four for you?
What a fraud?
I am here on a podcast wearing in Ellie day La Cruz Jersey. Oh no, And it is not a clear top four in my opinion, I think it's a very clear top three. We mentioned Otani, Bobby Witt, and Aaron Judge. Obviously, Judge amazing batting average power counting stat should be awesome. Some people have labeled him injury prone. I think early on in his career that made sense. But a couple of years ago he got hurt. He like fractured his toe in Dodger Stadium in kind of
like a freak accident. So I don't really think that Aaron Judge is injury prone. I would be willing to use a top three pick on him. Elid the Cruz I don't think is a clear number four. In fact, I have him eighth overall in my rankings, and it's just the way that I typically like to build my Rodo category teams. Steals are much more plentiful in the
middle to late rounds versus batting average and power. I feel like those are much harder to find as the draft goes along here, and you know someone like Jose Ermirez is going to provide more power obviously across the board production, or someone like Juan Soto is going to provide more power, Someone like Kyle Tucker more batting average and more power than Ellie de la Cruz. I think you could say the same thing for Gunnar Henderson. So those are the names that I have ahead of Ellie
de la Cruz this year. And the fact that if you build your team around him being the steel source, if at any point he does get hurt, that is just a huge chunk of your expected steels that you are going to be missing for.
A period of time. So I love the player. He's electric.
I think he's a first round pick, and especially if you play in a points league where you lose points for strikeouts, he does get dinged a little bit in that format as well.
But yeah, not part of a clear top four for me.
Probably safe to maybe have even given people a marker is a little bit more head to head roto conversation. This is a little less points. I agree with this. I would ding him in a points league. I am aggressive though in in a roto and head format, and I do agree there are steals that are more plentiful across the board. But I also don't see it as empty steals. I see it as the elite of elite stolen bases. He's hitting for power. He upped his barrel percentage,
I mean twelve percent. It was from eight percent elite levels. Hard hits elite, but he still does strike out a lot. But he is a monster. But the monster is like, are you really truly getting the five categories? And that's where that pushes back. I will also say on the ranks for the consensus rankers, Ellie has a high of three, He's got a low of eight one. Soto is also one of those guys that has a high of three, So there is some variance there, But there are people
that are going to put Sodo above. Format might change Arico kind of same thing, just with Ellie. Is it at all a top three? Is it only a top three? Is it a top four? Does he is he involved? Is it a top five?
One?
Soto what is your thought on Ellie being a part of that group.
I don't think he is. I don't think he should be. And this might be because I'm more of a sucker for batting average as every year goes by. I'm looking to really build a stable floor of two eighty plus
hitters in the first couple round. And if you look by ADP of the other hitters going in the first round, just by ATC's projections, two eighty six, two ninety five, two eighty two, two seventy five, two seventy, two seventy five, two seventy eight, and then we have two fifty three with La de la Cruz, And well, yeah, that's a lot better than we were probably expecting a year ago. If you set a year ago, all he's going to be a two to fifty hitter. We're all going to
take that. But comparatively speaking, it is a bit of a drop off. And then once you get out of that first round to find more guys who are going to give you the six hundred plus played appearance projection with a high batting average, they really go very very quickly. So unless you are making a dedicated plan to go for guys like Freddie Freeman. Throughout the draft. Maybe you can get merrill. You know, there's certain guys where you can target batting average. But that's a really huge thing
for me. And even though the steels are great, Frankie said it, you can get steals later on. You don't need to get sixty projected steals fifty five sixty projected steals in the first round when you can get several guys going really through. I'm just looking buy ADP. Even if you're getting to like the one hundredth roughly one hundredth batter or so, you're still finding guys who are going to be projected into twenty to twenty five steel range. They're not a sexy players, but you can make up
that production. I'd rather build a solid five category floor anchored by batting average than take Ellie in the top five. But I think he is a first round player, no question.
So okay, well good, I mean, I don't even think that was a question. But you know what, maybe that does float out there at least in the ranks. He still is in that spot. Again, I do want to point out Ellie is technically for the eightyp's a little mess up because it's got like the pitcher side. He is fourth across the board, though ESPN. I want to point out he is twenty seven in ADP, so he's like five in YAHOO five and CBS four in NFBC, twenty seven in ESPN. So I guess there is some variants.
You bring up an interesting point when you guys are talking about some of these other players that might make more sense when you look at the first round so littered with what outfielders and shortstops and like a little sprinkling of a pitcher we'll talk about. Except there's this one needle in the haystack that keeps poking at you. That needle is Jose Ramirez. Ro Jose Ramirez is that non shortstop outfield position player who put up essentially a
forty forty season. He always does it. He's a monster in there. Do we at all think that there is some extra point that should be given, an extra value for a guy like Jose Ramirez who is consistent as can be. They've made the left handed hitter right field wall even a little bit more of a tunnel so you can project more power. But really the thing is is he qualifies at a position that is not in the first round. It's just shortstops and outfield. You have
an advantage when you do it. Rico, we'll start with you. Do you think Jose Ramirez deserves a little bit more of a boost. He comes in, by the way, at seven on the ranks here he is above Kyle Tucker, Mookie Bets, but he is below Wan Soto and Gunner Henderson. He has a high a four and a low of thirteen. Does he deserve a little bit more because he is the outlier positionally in the first round.
Yeah, I would take him straight up over Dela Cruz and over a couple of those players. I think that he is probably fifth right now, somewhere around five for me. You can maybe argue it's hard to go wrong really early on there, but he's roughly the fifth overall player for me. And part of it is that scarcity. There are only eight first basemen going in the first top one hundred picks outside of Jay ram Like you said, no other first rounders. There's Jazz in the second round.
In the third round you got Riley Devers Machado. If you're able to get one of those other names, then I guess it depends on how you're planning out your draft where you are positionally, If you think you can get Austin Riley when you're coming back in the second or third round, then maybe you don't need to take Jay Ram just because of the perceived scarcity of the position. But I think you're getting a five category guy who Whether or not you can get Riley, Devers, Machado, it
is a weaker position, right, it does dry up. Well, you're talking about Royce Lewis. As much as I like Jake Berger, these guys is top ten players at the position, it is fairly weak. So locking that down and then not having to worry about it at all, I don't mind it. I don't mind it. I really don't. But is it? Where do you? I have them at five
right now. But the thing is as well, I don't want to be locking myself into these positional bubbles in the first round and saying I have to do this positionally. That's something I want to be worrying about a lot later in a perfect world. But at the same time, there are two sides to the point. If you can just not have to worry about it, then you don't have to worry about it, and I'm okay with that as well, Frankie.
That's actually what I was going to ask is you don't even you can get into ramires however you want, but like, do you even let it seep into your brain positionally? Do you think positionally? Are you positionally agnostic when you're looking at it. I don't care if it's outfit, I don't care if it short, it's up. I don't care that Jose Ramirez is the outlier positionally across the board. Are you wondering at all and carrying it all and focusing on positions in that first round?
No, not in the first round, not in the first couple of rounds. I actually agree with Joe there.
I think you just want to bank as many stats as possible and build that safe floor across the different categories, not really worrying about positions. Worry more about the categories and making sure that you're filling all those out. And that's exactly what Jose Ramirez does. So he is the number four player for me. He's not part of a top four. I think again, there's a clear top three and then it kind of opens up, you know, four through eight is again maybe a little bit of a
mini tier there. But I think even more than the position that Jose Amirez plays is just the consistency that he has provided. And he has finished as a top six player four of the past five seasons. The one that he didn't was twenty twenty three. He still finished twenty third overall. So you're telling me that's the floor Josierramirez as a second round pick in his worst season in the past five years. Yeah, that's absolutely someone who should be drafted the top five.
I just flipped them the number four. I just flipped him with Gunner in my rankings.
So, oh, live live, it happened.
Frank I did it. Yeah, I'm gonna put that on Frankie. So if Bridge a ram West, we know what we're going for.
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draft at Fantasypros dot com slash Assistant. Fantasypros dot Com slash Assistant, Go and check it out today. It is an incredible tool. You can be looking at the other platforms and bam, it pops up with suggestions and you can even just have it up going through all of it. Use the Draft Assistant today. Fantasypros dot Com slash Draft Assistant. All right, let's move through a couple more first round questions. Do Corbin Carolyn Julio Rodriguez deserve to be in this
first round? Kind of a I guess, a goofy question and to do it. But if you're looking at the production and you're looking at consistency, We've talked a lot about consistency. Gunner's great, Bobby Witt, Jose Ramirez, Judge, maybe Ellie's a little bit of a question. You get into guys like Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts. What are these guys all have in common? They just do it every single year.
Julio Rodriguez and Corbyn Carroll were both relative disappointments. Corbyn really bounced back on the back half, but you saw frank you know you were on it, whether we never got a confirmation if there's like a shoulder thing or not. But batting average kind of sunk. It was late power run. Julio is inconsistent. They really didn't get a whole lot there around him, So like, I know he's there there,
that's what it is. But do you think there should be more questions asked about Corbyn, Carroll and Julio Rodriguez. Corbyn is number ten on these ranks. He has a high of six, but he has a low of nineteen. Julio Rodriguez is fifteen. He also has a high of nine but a low of twenty eight. Amongst rankers on the ADP, Carol is eleven, Julio is fourteen, but ESPN slams you on Julio with a low or an average
of forty two. So I gave you all the pieces here, Frankie, what do you think about Carol and Julio and your investment on them in the first round.
I think they absolutely should be in the mix. And as we've talked about it, it kind of feels like there's many tiers within the first couple of rounds. Here a clear top three to me, the four through eight I think is pretty locked in. Once you get to nine, I think things start to open up a little bit. You have your Mookie Betts's, your Fernando Tatis Junior, you have Corbyn Carrol, Julio Rodriguez, Francisco Lindor, Vladd Junior, Jordon Alvarez.
So really from nine through let's say fifteen or sixteen, it feels very interchangeable. I think it just comes down to how you want to build your team and based on the upside. I still think Carol and Julio Rodriguez need to be in this conversation. Maybe they don't have as safe floors as you know, other guys that have done it for longer. Lindor is basically thirty thirty locked
in the past couple of years. If you just want that four category production and you want more of a stable batting average, Vladd Junior or Yordon Alvarez could make more sense. But if you're just talking about production across the board, Julio Rodriguez five category producer, he is held back playing in Seattle. You know the counting stats, the ballpark, playing there, But we.
Just saw it a couple of years ago.
I mean, he can go thirty thirty, which you can't really say about many other players in the league.
And then Corbin Carroll slightly different skill set.
Maybe the batting average floor a little bit lower than we thought heading into last season, but you know, twenty to twenty five home runs, forty fifty plus deals, so it's a little bit of a different skill set. But I think absolutely both players should be in the mix as late first early second round picks.
Joe, do you think that Corbyn Carroll or Julio Rodriguez, in drafting them, come with any type of a caveat? Do you feel that they they're the type of player that you're like, now, I gotta go a little safer. You know, sometimes players do that. You don't really want that in the first round, and you know, Frank Gardi you kind of say you don't worry about positional stuff, but like when you draft a Carol or Julio A
could you draft both of them together? Be if you were to draft one of them, do you feel like, man, I've got to go get a Jordan Alvarez. I've got to go get a Vladimir Guerrero Junior. I need a safe floor player. Do you feel that at all? Or, like I said, would you be comfortable taking both of those guys?
If I'm on the turn, and especially in a fifteen team league, and I end up with both of them I picked fourteen or fifteen, I'd be pretty happy with that. The projections like both of them. They both rebounded very well down the stretch. Julio started out slowly in each of the last couple of seasons, and I wonder if that's just who he is. He gets off to a bit of a slow start. I'm also kind of not really sure what to make of the whole Seattle Paul
Park batter's eye thing. Are they going to make a change. Are they not going to make a change. We don't really know there. But even if they don't, like if you just look at the baseline projections for Julio ATC has twenty seven and twenty seven, ZIPS has twenty seven and twenty seven, bat x twenty seven to twenty nine. Oopsie the new projection which really shoots for the fence thirty two and thirty two with a two eighty eight
batting average. So I still think he's fine. Do I worry about the surrounding environment and the teammates, Like, is Randy Rose Arena his most offensively talented teammate right now, Probably if they get Pete Alonso, I like that a bit more. But between the two of them, I'm definitely
more in on Corbyn Carroll. You know, the shoulder issue seems to be resolved with the caveat there that we don't really know for sure, but just based on his performance down the stretch, it really did seem like Corbyn Carroll was pretty fine in the second half. He was stealing bases, He hit seventeen home runs in sixty three games, So maybe the injury wasn't as severe as we might have thought and it just healed on its own. People are gonna be worried about is he gonna need surgery
at some point? But again, even in like his worst season, I mean, he's only had a couple of seasons, but this was, you know, a down year for Corbyn Carroll. He had one hundred and twenty one runs twenty two and thirty five. He also had only a two to fifty six babbot in Welsh. I wonder like you watch him a lot more than I think the rest of us do. Being in Arizona. Previous two years Babbit for Corbyn Carroll was three thirty three and three twenty five.
He goes down to two fifty six. Do you think that bounces back and he can hit to eighty five again one.
Hundred thousand percent. Also, babbit could be driven by speedy guys, so it's like he's one of the fastest in baseball. He struggled making contact. People can use babbub like the super generic ways. You could look and you could be like, oh, that's eighty points off of their standard. That's bad luck. You know that's working, and that is not a repeatable thing.
Sometimes they're not intercorrelated all. But you look at left on base percentage for a pitcher and you're like, oh, that's you know, sixty two percent that's not going to maintain or ninety five percent. You look at low babbebs and you're like, oh, that's like a metric you can look at for potential positive regression. So yeah, I think.
I think I always thought Corbin, to be honest with you, his batting average was more of the stabilizer, and it really fell apart because he had this massive hole in his swing in the upper portions of the zone which he got attacked, attacked, and he really never found great ways, whether it was his shoulder or just his swing style, because he'll get you know, you know, like he doesn't have like a short swing. He's got a super fast swing, but he'll just kind of come across the body and
got beat pretty bad. But I always thought that that could improve. I think I think Carol's still a great baseline player, and ATC it does have Julio pret rejected at two seventy four, Carroll at two fifty eight, but Carrolett two fifty eight is still phenomenal. They project twenty four homers and forty stolen bases. One of I believe Corbin Carroll is the number one player in runs scored when at first base, Like his percentile was just dramatically
higher than any player. When he was on base, it was like over fifty percent of the time the dude was scoring a run. So if he's hitting for higher average, he's projected at one hundred and seven runs. That's as much as one Soto. I want to point out in etc. Projections,
Ario Cohen one of the most respected. He is the same projected runs as Juan Soto twenty four to forty, So like I'm obviously defender of Corbyn Carroll, but it does feel a little caveaty sometimes like maybe you're taking on some inherent risk, but maybe even more so we can discuss kds and where you want to pick. We'll
do here in just a second. What I do want to bring up is a very very important conversation in the first round, probably the last of the big like you know this certain player or draft strategy thing his pitchers. So the discussion can you take a picture? Are you comfortable taking a picture?
This year?
Obviously, Paul Skeens is the top guy. He's at thirteen in ADP. Across the board, he's the lowest rank is actually on CBS or at least our current data at eighteen. Overall his rank as we were looking on the big board, he came in at fourteen with a high of five a low of thirty one. Trick Schooble's close Frank Stanful can and will you draft a starting pitcher in the first round.
I can draft a starting pitcher in the first round.
I will not draft a starting pitcher in the first round, and I probably won't draft one in the second round either. I have no doubt that both of these guys are talented enough to earn this draft stock, earn return on investment. Paul Skeins and Trek Scooble obviously both incredibly talented and in Paul Skens's case, incredibly young. But just the inherent
risk that comes with starting pitchers. I mean, the past couple of years, velocity being up, injuries being up, trips to the il Tommy surgeries at an all time high. It's just if you draft starting pitchers, they are more risky than taking early round hitters and famous last words. I feel like, you know somebody, everybody comes up with this every single season, but the middle rounds of pitching
actually looks really good this season, you know. I think if you wait until round three or round four and you get a Corbyn Burns or a Cole Reagan's or Dylan See someone like that, you can build your rotation George Kirby something like that, even like the ultimate fallback option, Fran Ravaldez going like round five or six right now. If you wait and just kind of build your staff around him, someone you know is a workhorse, I think you can find a way to make it work. So
they're absolutely talented enough. I think that they can return, but they just come with more risk and as I said earlier, just trying to play it as safe as possible in the first couple of rounds. I won't be drafting a starting pitcher in rounds one or two.
Yeah, especially if you draft in a league with Joe Rico. You're gonna get Garrett Crochet in the fourth round every time because he just always passes on him thinks he's gonna get him in the fourth round, you're locked in. If you got a late third round, you're gonna get Garrett Krosch in the late third or fourth round because Rico refuses to pull the trigger on it. Joe, besides Garrett Crochet, is there a world where you could stomach
pulling pocket aces? Pocket aces being the strategy of two starting pitchers in your first two picks, that would clearly be Tarik Schooble and Paul Skins the biggest advantage you could possibly have. But could you stomach and do you think you would ever suggest anybody do pocket aces? And you know, is there a scenario where first or even second round you would pull the trigger on school or Skins.
So no on the pocket aces. In a lot of cases, if you're in like a really shallow if you're in a ten team league, maybe I could see it. Maybe I could see it a lot of replacement level value. You could really win your league. I know that term is thrown around a lot, but if both of those guys go one hundred and seventy innings, then you're winning
all the pitching categories. Now, if we're just talking one of them in the first round, generally speaking, it's a no. I like to really build that base of what at least one, if not two hitters. Sometimes if one of them falls, it's tempting. I did a mock draft last night with Frank and some of the guys over at CBS, and I took Paul Skeins, And it's because he fell to the middle of the second round, and I thought, Okay, generally speaking, he's not falling to the middle of the
second round. I'll take a chance on him here. It was also a mock draft. Once the money's on the table, who knows. There's different things that come into play there. But I think if you're talking about, generally speaking, in the first couple of rounds. You should build your base offensively, and then once you get to round three through seven, you can get a Crochet. You can get Iman Gonna get in trouble here, but Jacob Gram I love Jacob de Gram. You can get George Kirby, you can get Reagan's.
There's a lot of names that are still ace level pitchers that you don't have to pay up a top thirty or forty eightyp for. So get your Vlatties, your Corby and Carrol's, your mookie bets, and then you start building your pitching starting around pick fifty.
When you do a video, it's the players that you will get yelled at the most. If you draft and well, that video will start with Jacob deGrom if you have that discussion, Luckily we're not having a first round discussion about him, but they will be more ex curial. Yeah. Well, I mean, you know what, if he pitches one hundred and forty one hundred and fifty innings, sure we'll be probably talking about him and Skins on the wheel. I don't know if any of us will still want it.
I'm not doing it. I'm with Frank, I'm with you guys not taking a first round pitcher. I'm really not doing a second round pitcher. If you're in a points league format and pitching gets pushed up a little bit, yeah, maybe I'm like, especially on a wheel, I might be a little bit more app for a guy like Paul Skins as well. But there's just so much depth out there, But it just doesn't doesn't feel like the strategy any of us want to pull. But hey, you know what,
sometimes you got to pivot. But the pitching market is a big doom for us and no boom if you will, Frankie, you like that one. All right, last couple of things, let's get into these are We're gonna maybe do a
little projection here. But what I want to ask is, since we've talked about all the players again one last time, that top fifteen on the East Hear on Fantasy Pros, We've got Atani Witt, Judge, Ellie Gunners, your top five Sodo Ramirez, Tucker, Bets Carrol, and then your bottom five through fifteen is Tatis, lind Or Alvarez, Skeins, and Julio Rodriguez.
Joe.
We'll start with you Katis Kentucky Kentucky system where you get to pick your draft spot. Where do you want to draft in the first round this year?
So generally speaking, like when we've done our mock drafts, I've mixed it up a little bit, but I like to be on the back end of the first round, somewhere between pick nine and twelve, or if it's a fifteen team league, I get somewhere between ten and fifteen.
And it's because I think that we're probably talking about roughly twenty first round viable players this year, and if you're drafting on the back end and you're able to pair up like we mentioned earlier, Julio and Carrol, or you're able to get Bets and Lindore, or Vlad Guerrero and Jackson, Curio Jordan Alvarez, etcetera, etcetera, I really like
being in that kind of range. Also because when you're talking if you're in the early top three picks, I just am not really as big of a fan of the guys that come back to you in that kind of range. Bryce Harper, Jared Duran, William Contrerez, Jazz Chisholm.
It's a bit of a riskier range for me, So I'd like to be at the back end and really just secure two of those players that I do perceive be first round values as opposed to taking that high end first round player and then kind of sacrificing on my second round and taking a player that I'm not
as interested in now. One last thing. In a fifteen team league, though, if you're drafting first overall and you get Sho Hee o Twani or Bobby wit Junior, I don't mind that turn there because the players that are available a little bit later, you know, Michael Harris, there's you can nail down a first closer if you want to go for a Class A if you did want to reach on into Grom like, I don't mind it in a fifteen team league, but a lot of the time, nine times out of ten, I'm picking a later draft
spot this year.
Frankie, what do you think where if you are picking in the first round, what's that spot that you want that sweet spot for you?
I think Joe laid it out well in terms of if you have a back end of the first round pick, it kind of feels like there's fifteen, sixteen, seventeen first round caliber players. So obviously, if you are picking on that back end, you you basically lock down two of those guys. If not there, I think third just whoever falls of the top three. Again, it feels like a top three o Tani, Bobby Wit, Aaron Joe in whatever order. I'll just take whichever one falls to me at pick three.
In a twelve team league, I think you know, there is a chance you could still get a Freddy Freeman or a Trey Turner falls to you at the back half of the second round in a fifteen team, or it is a little bit tougher Joe, because as you pointed out, if you pick third, you know some of
those names that are falling to you. It's kind of that range where it feels like there's kind of a tear drop in the in the production expected production for those players, and you feel like, all right, maybe I'm reaching on some of these guys in the late second round. But in a twelve teamer, you know, around pick twenty one twenty two, I think that you'll still have some pretty good value there. So if it's not the back half, I'll just take number three and whoever falls.
I like what you guys are saying, like Ka Tell Marte is another and a twelve team on the back half of the second to third you could take that works in there's a lot of things you can do. Fifteen does make it tougher. You are reaching a little bit. I will tell you, I really like that six to seven spot for this year because I believe that there there's a big tier. I like what you said that
there's seventeen eighteen, maybe twenty four around talented players. But I think if you're looking at an A tier, there's about seven players that are a tier, and that is broken into like one A and one B. I guess that's you know, this tier one and it's one A, one B and one A is like Otani and Wit and then maybe Judge, and then that B tier opens up to guys like we've talked about Ellie, Gunner, Henderson, Juan Soto, Jose Ramirez. So if you're around six, you're
gonna get somebody that's gonna fall to you. If you don't like Eli, then that's not good for you. But like Gunner or Jose Ramirez or Ellie, and I think you get a really good spot coming back. You might have one more of those really good positional players that are gonna be floating around there. Then in the third round, you're in a really good spot to snipe Joe Rico on Garrett Crochet and that's like, that's prime of what
we're talking about the last two things here. Let's have a little look see for what the first round could be starting with by the end of the draft season.
Who is a.
Player we know who the top fifteen is? You want to, you know, just use number sixteen, that's fine. But is there a that you think over the next six weeks has an opportunity to jump into the first round. This is not an uncommon thing. I think there are probably only a handful of players that can do this. But we've talked about that there are maybe twenty ish players
that are first round caliber. Which of those players that is not in the fifteen mister Frank Stanfel, do you think could potentially jump in and people start taking on the wheel of fourteen and fifteen because they don't want to miss out.
I think there's a pretty obvious name. I think maybe it's already started too, and that is Jackson Surio. As a twenty year old last year went twenty twenty and from June one he hit three zero three with sixteen home runs fifteen steals, and people are thinking of, man, the potential. This guy can hit three hundred, He could go thirty thirty. If he pops a couple home runs in spring training and just starts tearing the cover off the ball, he absolutely will be in the mix for
a first round pick. I did want to give an honorable mention to Ronald Dacunya, who right now is kind of a stay away for me, just because it sounds like he's going to miss the first month of the season coming back from another torn acl He has torn the eight in both of his knees. For someone whose skill set is so revolved around speed and ceiling bases,
obviously that is a problem. But if he plays in spring training and he starts to look like himself and we start to get some positive reports, all right, maybe he'll be back a little bit sooner than we thought. We're not going to restrict him as much. I could see people kind of buying back in and moving Ronald Lcunya back up into that one two turn. It's probably not going to be me, but I could see a scenario where it happens.
I like that too, because I'm kind of I'm exactly like you like I'm out right now with the injury, there's a lot of floating stuff. If we get more confirmation he's playing in spring trending and they say, hey, listen, we're going to give him two weeks to ramp up mid April he's back. You know what, great wheel pick. Get him on the wheel with whatever hitter that's floating out there. Maybe you could take a Julio and Ronald Acunia and that's like top five from last year. So that's the spot we go.
Jackson Cherry was.
One hundred percent of the player. If neither one of you said it, I was going to say, I think he is the prime example of the guy that is going to end up jumping arica. Is there anybody else that you think that has the potential over the next six weeks in the draft season to move into be a first rounder or someone we could maybe you know, on occasion see jumping up into the back end of the wheel. People starting to snag out.
Well, the Acuna ones really interesting. If we get any whiff of good news or any you know, if there's a video of him running at full speed like he's going in the first round. I've mentioned him already a couple times, I'm already going to be in trouble in the comments, so I might as well double down. If we see Jacob B. Groham throwing ninety nine miles an hour in spring training, somebody's taken him in the first round, especially in those NFBC drafts. In the main event, it's
gonna happen. Pitching gets pushed up there to begin with, and then if we do see like just these crazy clips of pitching Ninja f Rob Friedman starting to share these things, then I could definitely see it. And there's one more name that's kind of a little bit less obvious, but I think Jazz Chisholm has a potential to get there in some leagues. And then Mak we did last night, Frank he went on the one two turn and it
was a twelve teamer. I think he went thirteenth. And you might say, well, somebody was just a little bit over anxious there. But we're talking about a guy who is now playing in New York and another guy where if we see, you know, he's healthy. If we get those best shape of their life type of videos, I could see jas Chisum sneaking into that one two turn. In fact, I believe he's already gotten there in some drafts. His minimum pick on the NFBC this year is thirteen,
so it's already happened at least a few times. I could see it happening a little bit more with that whole New York flare. If we see him have a you know, like what O'Neil Cruz did to some extent last year in spring training. If he starts hitting the cover off the ball, stealing bases he's in New York, I could see it happening, all right.
Final one here, let's do a little future projecting. I labeled this as next year, but maybe it's even by the end of the year. Let's take a outside the top fifty player right now that has the potential to jump up in someone we could be talking about as a first rounder next season. Joey, Let's start with you potential outside the top fifty ish player that could be a first round that by the end of this year, or someone we're looking at next year in the first round.
So he is kind of fringy depending on which site you look at. Some of them he might be inside of the top fifty. Some of them he might be just outside of it, but I'm going with Wyatt Langford, and I think Wyatt Langford is where even by the end of this year we could be talking about him as as a first round value. The projections love him. I know a lot of the people who are more into prospects, welsh u and Eric Cross is obsessed with him and it's hard to not have to be when
you look at the data. Like all the things around him last year, all the narratives were that it was a disappointing season. He didn't meet up to expectations. He still hit sixteen home runs, nineteen stolen bases, he hit two fifty three. It was a one to ten WRC plus, he had a good walk rate of nine percent, didn't strike out a lot, only twenty percent, barreled the ball up at a nine percent rate. There's a lots to
really like. And the comp that I've used for the people who are more football inclined is it was essentially like Marvin Harrison junior. The expectations were so stupid high that it looks like a disappointment, but it was really actually a very very good season. And when you're looking at projections, pretty much the baseline is about twenty to twenty five homers and twenty stolen bases with about a two seventy batting average when you factor in how deep
that Rangers lineup is. Where Jake Berger's projected a hit eighth right now, this could very easily be one hundred runs one hundred RBIs where he's hitting thirty homers if things break right with twenty plus stolen bases, and I think he could very easily be in that first round conversation next year. The way Jackson Churio is this year, definitely one.
I took a look at Yahoo and ESPN both have him ADP outside the top fifty, so I think that definitely works. This would have been one I would have thrown out as well. Frank love your name. This is a nice deep shot here, a good popular target outside the top sixty or seventy in some spots. So your player that we could be seen by the end of this year next year as a first rounder.
I will just preface this with I think you guys chose the two perfect players just outside the top fifty who could be in this first round conversation. So I'll drop down a little bit lower and someone else who has a lot of hype this offseason is Lawrence Butler. The ADP right now is seventy five point eight across all of the different websites, and we know that he
was awesome over the final three months. Hit three zero two to twenty home runs, fourteen steals, a nine to forty three ops in seventy three games there for Lawrence Butler during that stretch, strikeout rate was manageable, right around twenty one percent.
He hit the ball really hard.
I love that as a young left handed bat, he had really good left handed right handed splits. He hit lefties better than he hit righty's last year. So what that tells me is he should be an everyday player, which obviously helps with projecting playing time and counting stats
and things like that. And the move from Oakland Coliseum to Sacramento in Sutter Health Park, which I think maybe as a community we might be overvaluing the ballpark shift a little bit, but I still think it's going to be a better ballpark than Oakland Colisseum.
And it's a warmer climate too.
I know my co host Chris Sowards did some research into this, and it's like in the summer, it's it could be as much as like an average of ten degrees hotter.
And it's similar to Arizona here a client because you're away from coastal and Sacramento and it's got you. I mean, like it's going to hit hundreds and stuff like that, and that's a you know, relatively what we experience here in like May So, yeah, I agree with that.
So if that happens, like the ball is just going to fly out, and if that, you know, look power and speed. I think the Oakland lineup is okay, it's not as terrible as we thought heading into las year. I think gets an improving lineup. I see a scenario here where Lawrence Butler goes twenty five to twenty five with a pretty good batting average, and I mean the upside the ninety nine percent is like thirty thirty. He hits three hundred and just becomes one of the best
players in baseball. I don't think that's out of the realm of possibility. And if that happens, then yeah, we're looking at a first round pick with Lawrence Butler.
Yeah, I like that one. Mine, as you guys are kind of alluded to, I pick James Wood adp is at fifty one. I've talked a lot about him for quite some time. Nine homers, fourteen stolen bases last year he hit two sixty four strikeouts are definitely something that he's going to continue working on. But the profile, ten percent barrel, fifty two percent hard hit rate, phenomenal expected batting average supported his batting average. He didn't get the ball in the air two degree launch angle, and he
still hit those nine homers. That's going to adjust. It's like a super common young guy thing. He did a really good job in the miners of hitting both righties and lefties. He also did that at the major league level, which I think two sixty batting average across righty's and lefties is huge. The first fifty at bats were kind of he's adjust period. The rest of the season he ended up hitting just about two seventy. He's got thirty thirty potential for James Wood, He's gonna have an entire
season in front of him. I love him. He's definitely a potential first rounder. So whyet lang for James Wood, maybe even Lawrence Butler. Some potentials for the end of this year or next year, and those are the guys you guys can let us know who you like for next year. Who's a guy that could sneak into the first round that we didn't talk about, your absolute favorite place to draft. Do it all in the comments on
the YouTube side. If you guys are listening on the audio, make sure you go check it out YouTube dot com Slash Fantasy Pros MLB. You guys can be a part of the discussion as always, and make sure to check out mister Frank Stample on Fantasy Baseball Today, one of the best fantasy baseball podcasts in all of the land. For Joel Rico, Frank Stamfle I'm Chris Welsh. Thank you guys so much for hanging out with us, and we will talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros.
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