Hello everybody, Welcome into the Fantasy Pro Baseball Podcast. I am not Chris Welsh, I am not Joey P. I am Ryan Warmley that I am joined by Mike Mayer and we are bringing you a brand new weekly fantasy baseball podcast. This show will be released every Thursday all throughout the season. Mayor we have been talking about doing a baseball show together basically since we were both hired. How excited are you that we're finally going to get to do one.
Very excited and speaking of since we were both hired, today is my two year anniversary, So happy anniversary to me.
I did see that. Congratulations, Oh thank you.
Yeah, very excited about it. There used to be like a weekly show a while back, and then that kind of transitioned into like Leading Off, which is awesome because it's a daily show, but we kind of like missed the whole, like season long look and like fantasy focused show, and so now we're finally bringing it back.
Yeah, Leading Off is not going anywhere. You can still hang out on YouTube every single weekday of the entire season with Joey P and Welsh. They'll be talking bets, they'll be talking all the news and notes, stat lines from the night before, really everything that you've come to know and love from leading off throughout the years that is not going anywhere. This will be in addition to that, giving everybody kind of a chance to step back take a more macro level view of the season. Each week,
we will have those guys on. Chris Welsh will be on regularly talking prospects. We will have Kelly Kirby on to give her insights and analysis. We will have Joe filling in at times. I am sure those guys will be involved with this show, but it will primarily be myself and Mayor. Like I said, released on Thursdays, So we'll be starting next week as the season gets going. Technically the season has already gotten going, but you know,
for real opening day next week. Some of the stuff we'll be doing on the show, Like I said, we'll be talking prospects with Welsh, We'll be doing some bi loos, sell highs. We'll be talking top storylines each week, biggest news, injuries, like I said, prospect call ups, that sort of thing. We'll be hitting on waivers, suggestions for each you know,
going into the weekend, looking ahead to start pitchers. This is the things we're most excited about each weekend, and we're gonna have some sort of contest bet between the two of us that is still being determined what exactly that will look like, but I want an opportunity to really put Mayor in his place, so we're gonna be doing something like that as well. Like I mentioned Mayor, this season technically has already started, of course, but this
upcoming weekend is still a major draft weekend. So we're gonna give a preview of kind of what our show's gonna look like and the type of advice we're gonna be giving with some last minute draft advice. Here, We're gonna each give you, guys, two players that we are drafting everywhere, these are our favorite targets at least at cost, and then two players that we're avoiding and maybe not drafting so much across all of our leagues, which I don't know about you. I only have one real draft
left most or maybe two. It's one is still being scheduled if it's gonna happen or not, but primarily draft season is kind of done for me. What about you?
I think gone in the same boat. I think I've been drafting for a couple months now. I think I still have two left. One I actually thought was Sunday night, that turns out it Saturday. So really good that I saw that text message this morning and I didn't just miss my draft. But yeah, I think I have two left this weekend. So still, you know, still a decent mom drafting left to do.
I've got our big Fantasy pros work draft we have. There's too many people that play baseball, so we split it into two leagues. And I won it the first year I played, and then last year I not win it, and yeah, I had to. I have to give my bonafides to everyone to let them know why they should listen to me. But that draft is tomorrow for me, and it starts right as the NCAA tournament kick you know, tips off, So that will be super super smart timing
by me. Let's have been here. Let's start with the players that we are drafting as much as we possibly can, and I'll let you go first.
Sure, so I'll go first. I actually had my half of the Work League yesterday. I lost in the championship last year, so no hurt feelings on my end, but I actually drafted this player yesterday and it's not like the deepest name. It's kind of a boring name to
start out with. But like like I said before, I've been drafting for a couple months and I'm drafting this guy everywhere, and it's because he's just devalued it to a point where I think, you know, it's not like you know, crazy undervalue, but like it's Xander Bogart's And what I like about him is like I like that he's boring. He's he's just going to give you that like solid floor. And the bonus this year is that he's going to add second base eligibility soon, like you know,
early in the season. And like even though last year, like he's kind of like being pushed down because of like what happened last year and to an extent like the year before because he's not in Fenway Park anymore, but he still went nineteen nineteen last year. And like, if that's my floor for a guy, I can move back and forth between the second base and shortstop, especially when second base, you know, it's not like the most shallow position this year, but it's you know, definitely shallower
than shortstop, which is pretty deep this year. I don't know, he's just like pushed like a round or too far or in auctions, Like you know, I think I got him last weekend at an auction for like eleven dollars. I'm like, that's just too cheap, and so it's not like the most exciting name to start off with, but like I have him everywhere for that reason.
Yeah, that's a really it's a really interesting name because I'm not actively avoiding him, but I also don't know that I have him anywhere, and it's less about him and more about the range that he's going in. And I just really like a lot of the other players there on Fantasy Pro's ADP, which you know, anybody can go to the site and find and pull that up, and it takes the consensus of ESPN, CBS, Yahoo, NFBC, a bunch, you know, fan tracks are all going in there.
Xander Bogartz is ADP ninety one, ninety is Tristan Kassas, who I do like quite a bit. Eighty eight's Justin Steele, who I like quite a bit. Eighty nine is Juri Perez. Obviously that hasn't quite adjusted. That was a guy I liked prior to the injury quite a bit so you know, Cole Ragan's is ninety four. It's it's just a lot of guys that I'm drafting like over Bogarts, but not because I dislike Bogarts.
Yeah, and I think I'm getting him later than those guys, and especially in auctions. I think I have him in a bunch of auctions just because he was going for too cheap.
Yeah.
No, I like, I like a lot of the guys that you know, Costas, I like Steele, I like. We'll say about the other guys, but I'll I'll.
Give the first of my players here. I actually pick two players that are going much later. I considered, I will just say to mention him. I considered Michael Harris. I wanted to look further down in ADP than a guy who's going in the you know, late round three range. But just to say quickly, on Harris, I think we could get fifty combined home runs and steals and a three hundred batting average this season. He's still super young.
I wish he hit higher in the Braves lineup, but outside of that, like, I have no complaints with what we've seen from him his first two seasons. So he's he's a guy I really quite like where he's going, but I wanted to go further down. So the first one I have here is I'm not sure if I'm getting the like true like like foreign pronunciation right, But Eduard Julienne I believe is the proper Canadian French pronunciation.
His ADP's two ten. This was somebody that I liked a lot last year in like my Dynasty League, somebody I was trying to acquire. He was really bad against lefties. He spent a lot of time this offseason working on hitting lefties. He also spent a lot of time on his defense, which I think is going to keep him in the lineup as an everyday non platoon player like he was last year. Rocko Baldelli has talked about how impressed he is with Julian's defense. Great, great batting eye.
His OBP was in the three eighties last year as a rookie. I think we're gonna see more power develop with more playing time, which again I think he should have this year. He had an eight thirty nine OPS in twenty twenty three. It was over a thousand in the postseason. I just think he's a guy who who because of the glove who because of the walks, will just have a consistently high floor of being in the
lineup and being somewhat productive. And I think the room is there for even more growth in terms of the power as well. So again, this is not a guy that's going to be an anchor of my team, but at a position where I'm liking a lot of the late round sleepers going after pick two hundred, He's one of my favorites.
Yeah, I'm a big fan of his as well, And like you mentioned, dynasty, I have him in a bunch of dynasty leagues and for that reason because they're obp leagues and so like his Like you said, his batting eye is phenomenal. He's over fifteen percent walk grate last year and throughout the minor leagues it was like a
round twenty he did. He hasn't really stolen a lot of bases at the miner at the major league level, but he did steal a little bit in the minor so there's still like some room for growth there, especially you know, he only had three stolen bases in one hundred and nine games in the majors last year, but like in twenty twenty two, and one hundred and thirteen games in double A stole nineteen bases, and in low A. You know, he can't really compare loway stats, but he
stole twenty one, so he was running, so like, maybe you can get ten stolen bases out of him. And I do think the defense and the plate approach are going to keep him in the lineup, and I think he should beat fairly high highly in the lineup too.
Definitely, who's your next guy?
My next guy is a little bit further down, but you know, not crazy far down. But Christian Xavier and I wrote him up in an article a few weeks ago as kind of like someone you know, like a must have or like a by Low just because the price has gone too far. Christian Navia is going outside of the top one sixty right now because he had a bad twenty twenty three, But he's only really being priced based on that twenty twenty three and not how
good he was in twenty twenty two. Obviously you don't want to buy that ceiling, which I think a lot of people probably did last year, and that's why there's so much like buyer's remorse for him this year. So people are avoiding him. But this is a guy in twenty twenty two who ind he threw one hundred and forty eight innings and struck out one hundred and ninety four guys with a two point five four ear RA, and his expected metrics were a little bit higher than that.
And last year he had a four point five sixty RA, which did look like it was earned. Like his expected numbers were all right around there too, But his weight
is down. He's been working on controlling base runners, and I just think he's so cheap that he's going far enough in this, like you know, the starting pitching market in drafts that like, I'm willing to like roll the dice on him because he has a very high ceiling on a good team, especially if you're in a league that counts wins, And I just think, you know, he's an incredible value going outside the top one sixty right now.
Yeah, even just looking at like just strictly like the strikeout numbers. You know, in twenty twenty one he had one hundred and thirty and one hundred and one innings. Obviously, twenty twenty two he had one hundred and ninety four and one hundred and forty eight innings. Last year, he had fewer strikeouts than innings pitch that that's the outlier of the last three years.
So but still close to like nine, you know, like still close to one per inning.
Yes, yes, just barely under a strikeout peranning. The next guy that I'm gonna bring up is a pitcher as well. He's going even further down ADP of two thirty eight. It's Kyle Harrison, Top Giants prospect, best pitching prospect according to them, you know, you know, for the Giants since Bumgardner, I've heard him, you know, referred to as MLB pipeline gives him a seventy fastball, fifty five slider, fifty five change up that's on the twenty to eighty scouting scale.
Of course, only made seven starts to the big leagues last year. He had a lot of control issues. That's been his bugaboo in the minors, and it was you know also as well in you know, in his first for into the big leagues. But the stuff is great. He is I think gonna be like their number two starter like this season. I mean he's he's he's done so little that it seems weird to say that, but that seems to be how they're lining things up good
home ball park. He only gave up more than three earned runs in one of those seven starts last year, even with the control issues. He of course had that elite outing against the Reds where he had eleven strikeouts as well. So we've seen this sort of the high end performance at the big league level, at least in a small sample size. He's somebody who has the prospect pedigree, has gotten sort of his feet wet at the big leagues,
has the stuff. I mean, it's it's really he's a fun guy to watch and is one sort of improvement away, the improvement being control from I think being a really good picture. And again you're getting him at eight with ADP two thirty eight. I almost wonder if I'm missing something on that, because I just think the upside is there and it's really hard to find pictures it's the upside now. It's really there's so much pitching just kind
of in the middle. I know, like Scott White of CBS calls it like the glob and that is that is like such a big section of the starting pitching rank gigs that if I can get a guy that late who has that kind of upside, I'm really happy about it.
Yeah, I have concerns, but I see the appeal, especially like you know the stuff that you mentioned. If you look at like his numbers throughout the miners, like his era isn't like pristine, you you know, what you kind of would want, Like you want to see a guy like really dominating the miners. What you do see is AKPRA nine in the teens, which is pretty exciting. And so I get that.
Yeah, of course, and you know if his if his ADP was one hundred spots higher, I'd feel a lot differently about it.
But where he's going, Yeah, where he's going and that, Like I was just working on my cheat sheet earlier today and I kind of made that argument where I was talking about, you know, there are certain you want to take some risks cause in you're drafted, but you would prefer to take those risks late, Like you don't want to build your team with early risks, even if they have high ceilings, because you know you have the potential disaster. But like outside the top two hundred to fifty, like, yeah,
take a throw a dart at that guy. My other concern would be like, how many innings is it's going to throw, because that's fair. He threw less than one hundred innings or maybe like exactly one hundred innings right right around one hundred innings last year between Triple A and the Majors. It looks like a right around one hundred, and so like, is he going to throw one fifty or are they going to tap him at like one twenty?
Do like they spread him out a little bit or you know, it could matter, especially like later in the season, depending on your format, you know, you might not like have this guy for the playoffs.
Yeah, I think that's a totally fair concern. I can already tell that this is going to be consistent theme with us going long for what's supposed to be a micro cast. So let's quickly move to the players we're avoiding here. Who's your first one.
I was just looking at the time as you said that, and I was like, oh, yeah, well this was supposed to be over by now, and we still have four more names against it. I'll go quick with this one. It's a pretty easy reason to you know, and not an easy name to avoid. But like you can see why I'm avoiding this guy and it's Cody Balinger, and it's just because like we've seen the pumpkin before, right, Like we've seen like I don't want to add his
current ADP. I don't want to pay for the glass slip, the glass slipper and the carriage when like we've seen what he can be before, and he was bad for a while. It wasn't like he had like one bad year. He was bad for like two or three two and a half years, and then last year he kind of put it all together. But now like you're paying his ADP, like he's just going to do that again. I don't know that he is.
Mayor you You asked me who I was picking, so wouldn't pick any of the same ones, and I said, it'll be more fun and have the element of surprise, And then we both picked Cody Vellinger.
Well perfect, we're running a long on time anyways, that's perfect.
Yes, yes, exactly. Just to rehiorate. I mean he was left for dead for Fantasy after three like like not just like down seasons, but like truly like abysmal seasons. Hadn't even reached twenty home runs in a year since twenty nineteen, legitimately awesome last year, super fun guy. When he first came up. I would like to be wrong on him, but I'm just not the guy who's going to spend a top sixty pick on a guy who has had one good year one not terrible year in
the last four seasons. So I'm with you on there. I'll just jump to my other one. I will say I considered Yamamoto, but the only reason I didn't pick I mean, you know, he's never thrown a pitch in the big leagues. I know he got a big contract on the Dodgers, a lot to be excited about. He's going as like starting pitcher six in drafts right now.
The main reason I didn't pick him is because by the time this episode's released, he will have pitched in this you know, career series, and I don't want to get burned before the first episode's even released. So I want to record that I'm not picking Yamamoto, but I did consider him.
We could also lose like four more starting pictures between now and when it's released, so he could be like sp two.
Yes, it's very possible. So the guy that the other guy that I picked besides Bellinger is to show how much of a not homer I am. I'm picking Adley Rutchman. I'm just not interested in taking a catcher that's going in the top fifty picks. I think importantly they're going to rest him more this season. I mean, he had almost six hundred at bats last year he played. It wasn't at the catcher position. He played in like one hundred and fifty four games last year. I think it was.
This lineup is so loaded with young talent. They can afford to rest him more this year, I think, and I think they want to, and so when a lot of his value is coming from the fact that he is in the lineup every single day and accruing those counting stats. If he's not doing that, I think he's going to be even better in terms of the power numbers. And I think he might even walk more this year. Like I think there is another level for him to
step up his game. He is a little bit older for a guy who only you know has as limited major league experience as he does. But I think that the less volume he's going to be getting is going to be is going to make an impact on the counting stats. And again I think I think he's the best catcher in fantasy and the best catcher in baseball. I love him. He should be the first catcher off the board. I don't think the value gap between him and the next guys at the position justify a top
fifty pick. And he's going ADP forty four, even if he takes another step forward this year, I just don't. I just think it's too rich for my blood.
Yeah, I would agree with you there. I love the player, don't love drafting a catcher that high in that work league. We were just talking about the auction I had yesterday. You know, I usually like to take my catcher for like a dollar two dollars, like maybe especially like in a one catcher league. Maybe you know, like in years past, you know, you spend ten dollars for real Muto or or you know, like someone like Rutchman. You know, maybe maybe you do spend ten dollars. He went for over
twenty dollars in our our our auction. I'm just not spending over twenty dollars on a catcher who's not going to play every day, and like like you said, at one hundred fifty four games last year, it's not going to happen again this year, Like especially like the rosters are going to be even deeper this year. They're gonna be able to afford to give him some more time off, and like they're just not going to run him into the ground. And so like even if he takes another
step forward, it probably, like you said, makes up. You know, the less playing time is going to you know, kind of even that out a little bit.
I think, yeah, definitely, So again, I am not a Homer. I'm willing to not draft Orioles. So I want that on the record.
Who is your You're definitely not a Homer. You never mentioned the Ravens, You never draft Orioles? Yeah, all.
I was gonna say thankfully that this show is audio only, because if it was on video, everybody could see the background. I have like a buckshow Alter bobblehead, a Brooks Robinson bobblehead, an Orioles playoff flag, There's a Brooks Robinson signed baseball. There's like a ninety three Orioles mug that my mom gave me. There's there's plenty of representation visually that nobody will ever see on this show.
Who all released the video so they'll know it? My last avoid is going to be George Kirby, which is another example of like I like the player, I just don't like the price. He's going way too high. Last season, one hundred and ninety innings pitched, one hundred and seventy two k's, so like not even a strike up er inning, solid three point three five VRA. Most of the expected numbers back that up, but they were like right at
that number or a little bit higher. His projections were twenty twenty four, you know, the zeal projections on the site pretty similar to those numbers, and it's kind of like what if that's his ceiling? Like what if? And then like are we even going to get a hundred
ninety innings again? Maybe we do, maybe we don't. And if we do, like is one hundred and seventy two inning or CA's and you know, like a solid arra like worth that when like I feel like you can get pretty similar production like several rounds later in your draft, Like if I'm drafting a picture that high, I want like a Strider or a Corbin Burns or you know kind of or a Yama Moto where it's like I
really like George Kirkby. I just like I think he's kind of being pushed up a little too far because people like him, and when you look at like the value, it's just I don't think it matches up with where he's going, whether it's like auctions or you know, his ADP drafts.
I think I think that's a great call, and I totally agree with you that I really like the player, But again, looking at some of the he's starting to put your nine and ADP and just some of the names going after him, Like, I'm not saying he should definitely be going behind all these guys, but I don't know if he should be going ahead of every one of glass now, Logan Webbs, Scooball, Nola, Max Fried Framber, Like, there's a lot of talent and guys who give you
more in a lot of categories than Kirby Will. Again, I like the player. He's young enough that there could be another step forward, and you know he's he's a guy I'd love to have on my real life team. But yeah, in fantasy where he's going, I think that's totally reasonable that it's a bit much. We will get out of the go ahead, go ahead.
I was gonna say there is kind of like and like you were saying, like, there's there's names are right behind him that I would I would rather have, And then there's also names like much later. Like one of the names I considered with instead of like Chris Navier, but I thought he was gonna be going too high to have. His player really wanted was like zach Eflin, Like I'd rather have Zach Eflin four or five rounds later.
Then where George Kirby's going, you know, players like that, Joe Ryan, Justin Steele, those players.
Definitely Well, we'll work out the kings here before we get to our first episode in terms of speaking over each other. But we will get out of there on that because we went like twice as long as we were supposed to on this first episode, which bodes well for the future and particularly for those who will be editing of these shows. I hope everybody sticks around for this weekly show, and you know, we try and we will really try and give you, you know, a weekly
kind of snapshot of the landscape of Fantasy baseball. Like I said, we'll be talking about storylines and stuff that's topical to that week, but we want to take a larger season view help you with trade things of that nature, and we'll try and bring on, you know, some of the other folks you know from the company as well, so it's not just the two of us, you know, yabbering at each other the whole time. But I hope everybody you know gives us a try as we get going.
Here start an opening day next week, and we're both really excited for the season, so we're happy to be doing this for Mayor. I'm Ryan, and we'll see you next week until the