Welcome to everybody to Fantasy pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
It is me Joey p.
JOPI is a Pia with me as always is the Welsh, and today we're gonna take a look at some of the early ranks and tiers. We're gonna go through the first round, second round where Welsh and I might differ. We spent a lot of time recently doing some deep dives and some deeper players, but now we're gonna talk about some of the big boys who are at the top of drafts and help you kind of choose because
that is how you are building your teams. There aren't wrong answers necessarily, but maybe there's answers with different opinions here, and we're gonna give you opinions as we always do here in the program. We're also gonna talk about our top ten starting pitchers or there any difference is there, and we're gonna use a little bit of dissenting opinions between Welsh and myself to see which players some of us are a little higher on than the other and
vice versa. And Welsh, you look like your fresh off the golf course. I'd ask you what your handicap is. But we've been friends for a very long time, so I know of your men many deficits, But seriously, would you shoot today?
Yeah, one hundred and seventy four thousand. No, I'm not a very good golf I'm tall, and I've been told I need custom clubs, so I can't hit. Wow.
I can hit irons, but I can't hit a driver.
So it was like mini golf, a nightmare for you where you show up to the MILLI golf, No that you can No.
I can put, I can hit irons, but I can't do anything else. So I'm pretty cool to be with that like top golf, but anything else I'm not going to be super great with. By the way, I just want to point something out as cool as Fantasy pros is. I have been working here full time for you know, almost two months, but I've been here for a couple of years. Every single day I learn about something else cool,
a new tool. I don't want to like placate this stuff. Hey, we're going to tell you about the cool tools why you should use them.
Everybody tools. No, we don't get that. We just use it. Sham wayoo put your draft on it.
But my my, Like, I didn't know about a tool that we're going to use today which is essentially going to turn Joe and I into like a Mortal Kombat or like, you know, a street fighter, Like are you like we're gonna put our ranks up against each I guess it would be this way like that, there's a dissenting tool where we literally, sorry, I had to find the right.
To do it. It's hard for us to look at each other.
But yes, yeah, that actually would be a great we should do like the shot of.
The Why don't we do that like Rocky? We just yeah, yeah, all right, there's your freeze. I'm sure that was someone podcast by the way. I'm sure people love that on the audio only version of the show just now.
But I had no idea about this tool and what we're gonna do. And this is what we did. We literally were able to click the dissenting tool on Fantasy Pros. We clicked Joe's and mine, and it tells us where our biggest differences are. We also can do it against ECR if you want. Here's a cool thing that you can do even if you're not a ranker, go in. Maybe you really dig Joe's ranks. Hey, our buddy Scott Bogman fourth in accuracy in draft rankings. We just found
out Mike Mayor as well. Well. Guess what you can go in You can click their name and see where they're different against me, Joe or ECR. You can play around with it. It's a cool tool that we're gonna add for our big Old Rankings Tiers episode that I'm very excited that we're doing, especially because it's like it's kind of like it's a battle.
It's battle. It's a friendly battle. It's a friendly battle. It's like a game of golf. It's a friendly battle, and afterwards we all go out for cocktails at the at the lounge. But dissenting opinions is something I use all the time for the NFL shows when I'm building them to see like where Deepro and Erickson are different from each other and things. We were doing some of those rank shows, but for baseball, I was like, hey, Walsh, I have you used the sending opinions for baseball? He's like,
what are you talking about? I said, oh, yeah, we got it for baseball too, and it is very useful. And shout out to Scott Bogman number four overall. You just recently did the mock Draft show with him a couple of days ago. That's on the YouTube channel. Go back and watch that. So pay attention with Bogman saying he was fourth overall last year in the ranks, that he just came out beat me. You were twelfth, You
were excellent. Mike Maher was fifth. I don't want to like pump him up too much, but I was twenty third, So I'm a disgrace to myself and others. Where's Kelly? I didn't see where the penguin ended up. I gotta find that. But in the meantime, while we're looking for that, before we get to the tiers and whatnot, don't forget you have a chance to win some free stuff here. Jazz Chisholm autograph Jersey Miami Marlin's own star outfielder, courtesy
of Bettingpros dot Com. Your place to start betting smarter not harder, which, by the way, on Betting Pros, Welsh and are gonna have an amazing MLB preview coming up in March, so make sure you subscribe to the channel for that. But in the meantime, if you want to win the Jazz chishm Jersey. Subscribe to Fantasy Pros MLB YouTube right now. Click subscribe, ring the ballot to lit goes Ding. That's it. That's all you gotta do. Comment below on the video and you are entered to win
the Jazz Chism Jersey. So comment with your thoughts. Keep it clean, though, folks. We run a tight ship over here, and that's all you gotta do to win the Jazz Chism Jersey. Yes, Welsh.
During leading off last year we had a bet going we did when we hit fifteen thousand subscribers, Joe has to do something. May I present a double down? Let you and I pick a number by the start of leading off if we could get to what do you think is reasonable?
Sixteen or seventeen thousand?
I want to push the envelope seventeen thousand. That was my baseball number seventeen, so I feel like I always were seventeen when I played, so I think that would be a nice number. So what's the double hell? Because fifteen thousand was me wearing the wig for the show and leading off, Yes, and that's already happening, So I can't imagine what you have in your brain.
I'm thinking we both wear wigs and we both rock the mustaches.
We did the mustaches last year, but we do it fourteen we did with wigs. We do wigs mustache, all right, yeah.
And that would be the first leading off of the year we would do together.
If we get to that number seventeen.
Some of a b I'm in, let's go all right, So there were seventeen thousand. There, you have it, everybody. So we sat for everybody. Mustache, mustache rides and wigs. That's what's gonna happen here. Let's get to dissenting opinions. Here's some players I like more than the Welsh Louis Castillo a twelve spot difference from each other peers. I'm higher on the closers too, which is weird because you're mister closers. I don't know that happened. I have to
go back to my rankings to fix that. Christian Walker doesn't get enough love from you or anybody else. I'm higher on people than him. I am hier on Max Fried. It's a scary one. Adleie Rutchman's the other one. And of course, no surprise to anyone's been listening to the shows. I'm higher than welsh on Alex Bregman by thirty spots.
So if you would have asked me, you have one player to guess who are descent is gonna be, I would have said Alex.
Everybody, he's got a thirty one hundred, one hundred guy. Like that's basically he's not a thirty.
No, he's not gonna be a thirty. He's gonna be like a twenty.
No, he's not twenty. He's a twenty five to twenty seven guy. Anyway, let's talk about Rutchman, because you know I am not the big catcher guy. I was surprised so much that Rutchmand was that guy. That was the big difference between us. I'm sixteen spots hier on Adlie Rutchman. I do believe he is a tier unto himself. We kind of had this discussion when we did the Infield Guide. If you missed that, go back and listen to the
previous programs. Watch him on YouTube. We did the Ultimate Infield Outfield and we just did the Starting Pitcher Guy too with Nick Pollock. They're all up there. You can binge watch all all of them. He is a tier onto himself. Yet I am higher on Bradley Richmond than you. That was kind of surprising to me. Is that surprising to you.
No, not at all.
I if I mean, everybody's going to be high on pretty much any catcher with me, I agree he is a tier of his own two catchers. I might prioritize him, But even then, I'm in taut right now, taut draft and hold fifty teen draft, and hold we're doing.
And it's two catchers because that's how they rolled.
And I didn't go at Adlegue in the second, the third, or the fourth, and I think he ended up going in the third or fourth.
It's just about catchers right now.
I believe.
Right now, as you're listening to this, you can go over to Fantasy Pros and you can find the.
Welsh's top draft targets.
There's an article for you, and there will be a player at every single position if you care.
What I have to say.
The catcher on that list is not ranked one, two, three, four, five, six. It's not in the top seven or eight because I don't want to pay high prices for catch I could be wrong about this, and of course, like the top guy at a position like Adley is uniquely great. But I think the gaps of production between the starters and catchers is the smallest gap of any fantasy position out
there from and that's including closers starting pitchers. There's just the gap is so small that I can get a I think I can get a catcher that can produce eighty to eighty five percent of the production.
Of like catcher number two or catcher number three. So I'm not surprised you would have a catcher higher than me.
Counterpoint to that, and I guess this is skewed because I play in more points based leagues as opposed to like the Rodo world because of all the hits, because he plays so much, because of the RBI, the run potential, of the power everything he does, and also the ninety plus walks last year, like Grutchman, to me, is the tier into himself and worth a little bit of a premium now. And two catcher leagues, I think especially, so it had to have points. You don't typically get the
two catchers in a deeper league too. If you're like my home league, right's fifteen teams, it's me, it's Chris Meaney, it's it's some friends of ours actually in the industry, So it's like it's somewhere between really good fantasy players friends of mine and I don't know. I think I probably invited you and you're like, I mean, too many of the den when to pay with you? So I might have said it just like that, I'm too busy bring trading hanging out with you?
Is it points?
Though? Yeah? I had dead points. Oh no, that's why I'm That's why you don't want to see So I asked you one did you did? Yeah, you need to do it, and I said fine, I only asked one time. I'm not going to be, you know, belligerent about it. But in those formats he becomes very special, and I think that we haven't seen the complete version of Adeleie Rushman. Yeah, like, I think there's another gear in this guy that we have yet to scratch the surface about. Good he's going
to be. He is I think an really interesting MVP candidate this year too, because he's also a catcher because of everything he does. I'm still team Julio, but if I'm going to hedge on somebody else, that would be an interesting one for me. And carrying that over into fantasy again, I do think he's see I look at real Muto and I'm starting to worry. He's in his thirties now, Like, what's that declines to start to creep in? You know, Will Smith still in the middle of that lineup.
It's good, but after that, like there's some guys that have some power, like the Alvarez is Moreno's an average guy. But I want the total package. A total package to me, is is going to be Rutchman because I'm looking ahead to the projectability, not so much on what even last year was. I think there's more coming when it comes to Rushma.
I'm not going to disagree again. Is his er He No, but he is his guy. If I were to take a catcher in the top one hundred, it's only Adley, But everything I do, Catcher's fault. Bagman and I we just did a mock draft on ESPN. On ESPN's platform, I got j two Ermudo in a twelve team at I get Gabby Morino at the end of dress. He
got Sean Murphy in the two hundred. I just don't think the gap is that big where I'm like, Okay, Adley is so much better than the next guy that that is worth more than taking whatever said hitter is there versus that tier. I'm down with Adley. I understand why you're doing it, points leagues, he gets a little bit of a boost. It is really just more about like my thoughts on the position, and sure that's anything else, but he.
Is the best. Well, let's get to another Why do you like?
Why do you love Aaron Nola? Why do you.
Read my mind? Nola was the next guy I want to talk about, and then we'll switch over to the guys you like more than me? Nola, I have twelve spots higher than you. What I like about Nola is the consistency, and I'm you know, you know me. I'm already digging very deep into the betting world of baseball right now, and I've replaced maybe more bets than I should have, but I don't think so. Like I think I've been very.
Joe's first thing, by the way, on the podcast we got on, I'm like, hey, what's up, Joan, And He's like, I'm making so many bets.
Like not even I think there was five I made, but they were they were very calculated bets that I think a lot of bets in just a random does not really well. Look when Matt Olsen to lead the league in homers, is it plus eight to fifty you Bennett? Okay, like is it? Where is that on FD right now? But anyway, I digress Aaron Nola, the consistency of Aaron
Nola the last few years. I keep thinking about the Phillies and and you know, the Phillies of this team that just you know, every year just shows up and figures it out, and they are able to you know, get hot at the right time, get in the playoffs. And I think, like my money right now, I haven't placed it yet, but my money's leaning towards the Phillies to win this division this year. I'm concerned a little bit about the Braves middle of the rotation. I don't
believe in Morton anymore. Sale is a reclamation project to me. But if you're looking at what this guy's done the last couple of years, you know, I understand people are scared away from the four pour six era, But the XCRA was three seven to seven, the x FIT was three six three. I think he was a little unlucky last year, and we were talking about one of the most consistent guys. We just talked about it on one
of the shows we just did. Over the last five years, Aaron Nola was one of the top five guys in strikeouts, and he's going later than some of these other aces. He's going after guys like Yamamo to who haven't thrown a pitch yet in the big leagues, and I just think that's straight out wrong.
The consistency, in my eyes, is more like his every other year thing. That's the problem, and that's why a lot of people are back in.
But like, if you take every other year thing Welsh again, it's like, that's fine, But you know what the every other year thing back two years ago, when his ERA in twenty twenty one was four to six three, his XCRA was three three five, you know, his x FIP was three three seven. So it's it's actually not him.
It's just he's got bad luck every other year. And that's not something though, Okay, I think you can you know, quantify and say, well, that's going to happen all that time on these odd years, Like that's just kind of silly. All I care is about the consistency of that XCRA and x FIP is in that mid threes. So when the things go awry, at least they still have all the strikeout potential and the win potential. The Phillies are gonna get me.
Yeah, maybe the problem is his expected the area is the third highest of his career, and the three seven to one is the highest over the last four years. And that's a twenty seven that prime range. While a significant drop in strikeouts, as a matter of fact, it is the if you don't count his first two seasons, so since twenty seventeen on, it's the lowest strikeout percentage he's had. To his credit, he's also like lowered his walks a little bit. But I just don't I don't
like the strikeout potential. The low nineties guy he went, he's always thrown the sinker a whole bunch. He went primary curveball this year, which was a really good with pitch. But I don't know, like, what is that transition going to be. Is going to go back to being more primary sink or maybe that'll lower the era. I guess I'm just unimpressed with Aaron Nola. I don't I have him really low. I think actually.
Unimpressed with the guy who has had again throw twenty twenty He's had two hundred or more strikeouts Welsh in every single season since twenty eighteen. How is that not impressed of you?
I mean, the innings are consistent, that is the big strike consistent.
Era might fluctuate, but geez man.
The era is not consistent.
The ball's getting harder, hit harder, he's pressing more in the pitch mix change from curveball to this last year. I just don't know if he's into that air like where he sits. It's like Bobby Miller or Jerry Perez, there's Grayson Rodriguez or' Zach Eflin. Like I'm I'd rather take shots in that range of where he is because maybe he does turn it around. You are right the expected the ara it's not awful, And if he gets to be a mid three guy again, he's going to
just eat up a bunch of innings. He's gonna have some wins and he'll get some strikeouts. Maybe it's the boringness of it, but I've moved off of Aaron Nola's He's getting a little bit older, he's just getting getting hit harder. The strikeouts are going to and I just have a lot less interest. I am one of the lowest rankers on him on Fantasy Pros well.
And this is why we're having this opinion, because I think it's important to throw out some of these names that we have the big differences on. Let's take a quick break in the action to tell you about Rival Fantasy. It's officially Fantasy Baseball season and it's time for MLB best Ball on Rival Fantasy. That's right, Rival Fantasy now has best Ball. Full season lobbies are live now until
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twenty four fantasy Baseball season today. Sign up at Join Rival dot com Slash Fantasy Pros to claim your two hundred dollars deposit match again. That's join Rival dot Com Slash Fantasy Pros. Welcome to the future of fantasy sports. Welcome to Rival Fantasy. And now back to the action. Let's talk about Welsh's. Obviously he's higher on tray Turner than me, No surprise. You've been higher on tray Turner than me since tray Turner was in this league.
And I don't even like Trey Turner that much.
Well, but I always like him less. However much you like him, I like him less. You're hiring Ellie de la Cruz than me. I keep fluctuating with my Ellie ranking up and down, like it depends on my week. You know it's probably is. I keep going back, and I watched the highlights of certain things. I'm like, man, he looks so good in the other highlights where he's fooled on pitches and things like, like, I'm trying.
To figure out the highlight of him hitting the the BP ball of Hunter off of Hunter Green that smashed Hunter Green's car. He hit a ball and it broke.
His own window.
I'll also say, Ozzie, he's been working with Barry Barry Larkin a whole lot, which I like.
But sorry, let's keep going to Let's go with oneal Cruz because there's a massive gap there between us. With oneal Cruise. It's almost fifty spots different now and again. For me, it's also just some of those similar things from Ellie Deler which is the swing and miss is there. I know the upsides there, I know the talent's there. The Pirates are slowly sort of putting things together a little bit like I feel like the Pirates, you know, even saw it last year. They were hot at the
beginning of the year. So here's your chance to sell everybody on cruise again because onneal Cruz is a player that I know everyone was ont on last year. It does feel very post type sleeper, But in terms of cost, do you think it's post hype sleeper?
In terms of ADP, I think that's specifically one of the reasons. Like based on your own rank. If you actually see Ellie somewhere in the seventies and O'Neill O'Neill is in the nineties, I mean, there's not much of a difference, but it is based on the cost of cruise where you guys are taking your risks. Ellie is kind of a risk, Gestism is kind of a risk.
O'Neal Cruz is behind all those guys. We saw him after that really bad start with the bad strikeouts at the end of twenty twenty two, cut the strikeouts over that last month to make better contact. Then the beginning of twenty twenty three he did the same thing. The strikeouts were not there, he was making his contact. Then he gets hurt. This is the entire year we rebound. He's a bigger power guy than Ellie de la Cruz.
If we're making that comp which is pretty common here, but how often do you see twenty twenty or twenty five to twenty five guys come at any type of a discount.
They're usually built up.
That's not the case here. If O'Neil Cruz meets the expectations of projections atc bat X and he's over twenty twenty and he hits two forty, he will only be able to beat his value be where you draft him. He will not be able to go backwards. Run RBIs could be maybe at a little bit of a minimum. We'll see where he's batting in the order based on runs, but he's gone to steal fifteen to twenty five, and
I legit think he's gonna hit thirty. Massive one of the highest max EV guys out there with a cutdown strikeouts and that lineup is not that bad, you know, Brian Kee Bern Hayes hitting the ball a little bit harder. Brian Reynolds is a great source at the top of the lineup. I think he is one of the best deals out there until he's not, which people like me that are into it are gonna make him not a deal. But it is hard to come by twenty five, twenty five or twenty twenties at any type of a discount,
and you're getting that outside the eighties. So I want Oneal Cruz on every single one of my teams, and I think I have to be the highest in the world on him as well as ranks. This is just gonna be one of those guys that I'm fully in on.
All right. Again, it's I like the player, but I'm looking at the ADP. He's going, you know, eighty seventh overall the consensus ADP on fans Bros, which you could see it is, but Xander Bogart is going ninety seven, and Bogart's I know it's hair together. Sorry, that's fine, you can, but I would say that if I'm just looking for a straight up shortstyle play, well there's the guy that's giving me twenty twenty with a better batting average, most likely because the second half of Bogarts was much
better than the first half. He did that classic struggle with the big contract thing. So to me, I'm looking at that, I was like, do I want to take the risk of Cruise even though maybe there is that thirty home run beside, maybe it's there to want to settle in for the give me the TS twenty twenty to eighty guy. I'm gonna think the twenty twenty two eighty guy ten spots later. I'm just going to every time.
Seems I think, I think, just think.
I think there's also a balance. Everybody should do it, or you should at least come to terms within your drafts is find out like where are the places that I'm gonna take my shots. I don't think it's great to go in and be like everybody is on the table and then you're like, I'm taking Ellie and Cruise and I'm taking Wyatt Langford and I'm taking Jazz, and you want to like find.
The right spots to do that.
O'Neil Cruz is one of those for me, you know, one of those rookies the Jackson holidays, the cheerios like I like those two because the cost is so much later based on potential returns. I think it's a lot. It is harder to stomach, like Eli day La Cruz at his cost in the twenties or thirties or something like that, and it not work out.
When you take Cruise.
You could have two pitchers and three hitters already, and then we've already proven that there's some great hitters behind that. It doesn't I don't think it absolutely demolishes like the scope of what your team could be, unlike taking a risk in those first couple of rounds, like a blow up in your face. So that's it is a little
bit more beyond even just oneal cruise. There could be other guys that you pick and choose, but I don't want to also take like Jazz and him and then a rookie like pick your spots.
All right, let's continue on with some of these guys. Will pick one more out Abrams your fourteen spots higher on the me Jazz Chisholm eighteen. But you've always been a Jazz guy to wreak Schooble, no doubt there. Yamamoto and Mike Trout, you are sixteen spots higher than me, which is funny because we just had this Chisholm Trout debate.
So is there a guy that stands out to you well, so you feel like you know this guy, like you want to plant your flag and be like, yeah, I'm high on this guy and I believe in this guy because is it Abrams is a chishm Is it Trout or is it one of the pictures school or Yamamoto. It's kind of been Yamamoto. I'll tell you.
I am trying to get a little bit of like the physicality out of my brain because like seeing him in person, like he is a smaller guy, but it's looked.
I hate on the short guys, man, like a short guys can't catch.
H I'm not trying to.
I saw Davey Garcia today over at the White Sox and like, that guy's five foot seven, Like they listened at five foot nine and I was like, no, you're not, No, sir, you're not.
But and he's a reliever and he was moved into a reliever.
I say, I like to look right in the eyes of major league players. I think that's a nice feeling for me.
Well, that would be one that you can get a lot of relievers you could take a look at, but getting all that out ahead. We talked about that on the Ultimate Pitching Guide. Yamamoto stuff looks like it's gonna play high. I know Nick wasn't excited about the potential innings, but like Yamamoto and Trout, those are two players that I'm kind of honed in on this range, two very different players. I love Yamamoto as a two. I think he's super safe as far as command, low whip numbers,
good strikeout numbers. Dodgers are gonna get a bunch of wins. It's just is that gonna be one hundred and forty or one hundred and sixty or one hundred and eighty innings.
That's something you have to come to terms with. And Trout's another one.
I kind of think I've planted a little bit of a flag on because you're getting them at the cheapest cost you've ever done before, and thirty five plus homers on a regular playing time schedule seems play. The other thing I worried about is this team being just such a pile of crap at the end of the year. They're just like I just go to take a rest and you know we won't trade you, but we also won't play you.
But I don't know.
I feel like again, this is like returns on lower costs is a lot easier for me to stomach. And I think I've been building teams that I can. I can deal with a cruise or I can deal with the trout because I haven't taken a whole bunch of risks already.
All Right, let's continue on here and take a look at the first round. Now pretty much similar for us along with consensus, we both have a Kunya one overall, we both have Bobby Wood Junior at two. We both have Julio at three, Mookie Bets at four, in Corbyn Carol at five. Where we start to differ at six you have Fernando Tatis and I have moved up Kyle Tucker into the sixth spots. So that's one difference. Again, minute difference. I have Tatis at eight, so or splitting hairs.
It was probably going to shock you is where I have Matt Olsen ranked, which I've done a lot of work on this and I've looked at a lot of first base, a lot of Matt Olsen's stats from last year too. I have n't bumped up into the first round, and you know, I understand where you're a little lower on him.
I mean, I think I'm actually like a little high on him still.
But you just u the Today fan Club. Today I became the president of the fan club. I mean, if we're just gonna look at the row numbers from Olsen, who was also a player in his prime, one hundred and twenty seven runs last year, one hundred and thirty nine RBI, fifty four home runs. Now, I know he doesn't steal a basis, so that's fine, but he did it to eighty three. And I think you know, if you go around the most consensus people, most people will
have Freddy Freeman ahead of Matt Olsen. He's going eighth overall. Molson's going fourteen. And I don't want to just flat out say that's wrong, because I understand Freddy Freeman's going to give you, you know, the stolen bases that he gave you last year. Okay, he stole twenty bags last year,
thirteen the year before. I don't know if that's sustainable at the age of Freddy Freeman though, And I think too many people are getting too wrapped up in that and saying, oh, it's Freeman over Olson if those so one bases come back to ten, does it? I mean, we're talking about a guy who hit twenty more homers, and I will take those twenty more homers over the ten steals because I can find those ten steals in twenty twenty four Major League Baseball. So let's talk about Olson.
He's a first round pick for me in the middle. What say you can I sell you on Matt Olsen in that range?
I mean, you really don't have well, okay on that right.
I feel like I'm making a good argument for him, Like I feel like I'm like laying it out there. Freeman always goes ahead of him. I don't think that should be the case anymore.
You know. The argument that I like, the really like that you made is that the stolen bases don't need to be a big primary rea. It doesn't need to be one of the top two focal points if you're gonna make the case for Freddy Freeman over Elson, because you can pick those up anywhere, Like it's throw a rock and you can pick up a guy that steals twelve bases or fifteen bases now, so you're not wrong about that. But Freddy Freeman is like elite batting average guy.
You come back to what you were talking about before with like points leagues. He's gonna get tons of hits. You know you can count on batting average and he's most likely gonna be hitting three and he's gonna have Shoe Heeyo Tani and Mookie Bets hitting in front. So the RBI opportunities could be absolutely massive, and you still have just rate bats behind him, so you know, run RBI could go through the roof, though they do. With Olsen, the power isn't there to stolen bases. It's really a
big batting average thing. So you don't have to sell me on Olsen because I want Olsen. Olsen is like a primary second round pick that I want in a lot of leagues. I don't need to wait on first. I will gladly take Matt Olsen.
That you have to have it on the wheel.
It's just over some of the other names.
And I am prioritizing Freddy Freeman because I think Freddy Freeman is floora floor.
It is five categories.
Sure, it's not elite power like I'm gonna get with Matt Olsen, but batting average is exponentially better. I do get those stolen bases. I think the runs can be higher. RBI and homers are maybe a little bit of a difference. So selling on Olsen no in this range?
Yeah, all right, because you've got Freeman basically where I have Olsen. So you have Kyle Tucker, than Oltani and Freeman. I have Kyle, Tucker, Olsen, Fernando. I'm sorry, you have Tatiase, Tucker, Otani, Freeman. I have of going downwards, Tucker, Olsen, Tatis and Juan Soto.
So Otani was my big change. Otani was actually my big change that I've done more recently. And I'll be frank if if if let's say he qualified in the outfield, I think it'd be hard to not have him as the number two overall player, if you like really think about that. And that's that's what I'm dealing with, Like, should I really only have him at eight if he qualifies at util?
Is that I haven't? Right, That's where I've got him, and I think him. I think that's reason I think you're your conundrum is quite reasonable about that, because you are looking at the spot. But I always say the same thing as like, well, all those people complain about locking in utail spots when David Ortiz and Nelson Cruz were banging, Like who cares? Like you're getting productivity? It
doesn't matter. Is a guy that went to m v P what so you know they were they were they were banging bang bang, you know like McK foley, Oh oh oh yeah, he's completely something.
Yeah, yeah, I got you.
You're still do over on. Let's look at let's look at the bat I've made the Welsh uncomfortable, folks. In case you're wating.
Trying to shut me down, you shut me down a little bit.
All right, We're gonna look at the BATEX, Derek Carty's projection system. The bat X, says Shohyotani. Thirty nine homers, twenty four stolen bases, one hundred and seven runs, one hundred and four RBI with a two ninety three batting average.
That is the elite of elite, of elite.
And you could easily justify that over Julio Rodriguez, Corbyn, Carrol, his teammate Mookie bets. He's going to steal more than Mooki might hit more homers, as many run RBI and a better batting average.
Otani legit can be number two.
It's the because if you draft him, you're out on Marcelo Zuna, you're out on like Jad Martinez if you care, and you're kind of behind a little bit positionally. So from a pure bat standpoint, I decided, you know what, screw it, I'm making him eight. But there's a part of me that wants to put him up into that core like four and if he qualified at a position.
If he did, I would agree with you. But he doesn't. So we can't not this year anyway. Look in next year when he's pitching again, he'll probably be two or one. Like that's probably, I mean, depending on the format of whatever you're playing in. How it allows. Now we both have Soto over Judge, I have Otani Between those two guys. The defining factor for me was Sodo over Judge was the toe injury. The iron Judge just came out and said to the fress his career, he's gonna have to
manage this toe issue that he's got. That doesn't make me feel good at the end of the day. Like if I've got to split hairs, and that's what you're doing here in the first round. You're splitting hairs. That's a big toe to be splitting, you know what I'm talking about, Like the Iron Judge thing. If this is something that costs him fifteen games a year, that might not sound like a lot, but you know what it is. It is the difference of you missing a category by
a few points. It's a difference of you losing a week or two in the middle of the season then missing out on playoffs, like or even worse if it happens at the end of a season and you miss playoffs. That was the defining factor for me. Was there something for you with Soto over Judge besides that?
Well, I just want to point like what you're saying is like pretty pretty astute because even besides, like you know, hey, he could miss some of those games, he's already got something like that's even more I don't even need to like think too much into it. Taking a guy that already has something at that high cost that that's why we're dinging Corey Seeker. Cory Seeker might not miss a single game. He's kind of noted like I'm not sure if I'll be back, but he might not miss any
time and he could be back and everything's glorious. And Corey Seker was a guy that was creeping into the first round, but he's still.
In my first round now, like I'm still wait and see about this.
You know, I moved him back into the mid twenties, actually just got him in town.
Because at the end of the day, if he misses like a week, like who cares. This is the same stuff that people were doing early on with Machado that I thought was right.
But guys that have had prior injury stuff having more things that that's kind.
Of what not just more a chronic thing. I think that's the defining factor for me where it's against I don't like Judge, but we are trying to define these these small minuscule differences between these great elite players, and to me, it's like, well, I just think SODA's gonna play more games, so give me Sodo. I agree with that.
And I mean and also Sodo just came off of like you know, career like homers and everything in a San Diego ballpark, and now he's gonna go to New York like never hit well, Yeah, I'm optimistic that like he's gonna ball out again and we could be pushing. We're gonna push high thirties, maybe even into forties, lots of runs, lots of RBI, like he steals some, and we don't have this lingering toe thing. So yeah, I mean it all plays in that he is the guy over Judge.
All right, So the rest of yours after Judge, Jose Ramirez, Trade Turner, Mettals, and then mister Jordan Alvarez. The end for me after Aaron Judge is Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, Corey Seeger, and Spencer Stryder. So right at the turn is where I have Strider and Garrett Cole. You don't have any pictures in there, but I understand they're probably like right around the corner. But you have Trey Turner Stell and I have Corey Seeger. So I think that's
the interesting debate. I never thought i'd get to this point here too, because even though I have never been the big Trade Turner guy, everybody always knows that. I just think in twenty twenty four, Trade Turner is just a little less special than he used to be because I can find stolen bases of other places, and I want the power. That's where I'm going now. And Corey Seeger, I think, is a better chance to give me more power. I know he has injury issues every year or too.
Like I get the risk of Corey Seeger as a first round pick, but Welsh Turner over Seeger. You've already made that decision so far. If Corey Seeger says I'm healthy, good to go, he takes VP, He's plays at the end of spring training, does that flip flop for you or you're staying true?
Yeah, if anybody paid attention to my ranks prior to the injury, I moved Corey Seger above Trey Turner, so I had that I may and that was actually kind of a tough one because even though the speed seems to be ticking down a little bit, he still stole like thirty and the bat is if Tray Turner can make that adjustment where he's gonna be like, oh, okay, Hi, I'm this guy that steals a bunch of bases, but now I'm also gonna hit and then the bases go away and he's gonna hit for more power.
The hard hit number is better.
I think we can stomach that.
If he goes from a you know, twenty forty guy to a thirty thirty guy to a thirty twenty guy, it's good. But Corey Seeger's batting average is a lead of elite. The Homers through the roof RBIs to there Cory, I mean, Marcus Simeon hitting in front of him is phenomenal.
So I love Corey Seger. I just he's just got injury stuff in.
The past and then you go and have this was it the Herninge surgery and he's probably gonnadh when he comes back. It's more to me than him just being like, yeah, I should be good for opening Day, Like this is a serious thing that he did. I don't think I can make the move pretty much no matter what. But in my tout league, I took Corey Seeger in the third round. I started Corbyn Carroll, Pete Alonzo. It's OBP so huge speed, huge power, and then I went with Corey Seeger.
In the third round. It's a great value OBP monster. Yeah, it's a huge value. That's especially in an expert league too, that's a huge value. All right, let's get to the second round. I've got Garrett Cole starting line with Louis Robert, Albie's, Francisco Lindor and Austin Riley. You've got Bryce Harper, Spencer Stryder, Austin Reiley, Garrett Cole, Vlad Guerrero Junior popping in there.
I feel like I'm too low on Harper. I've got him outside this He's at twenty one in this next grouping there again pretty much usual suspects for the most part, But I keep looking at second base and what Ozzi Albi's gives me what everybody else gives me that position, and I still I can't quit him. Still, I was the highest on I'm probably than anybody last year. I'm
still high on him this year. So in your opinion, Welsh, because you've got him in this lower grouping coming up in twenty plus, do you think that he should be a top twenty player? You still outside of him on what comes to Albi's right, not Harper Albe's.
Yeah, I think he's right in that territory.
I don't know if I'm like insanely optimistic that he's going to like reach another level. Part of it actually also becomes about and I had so many drafts early on why Ozzi Albi's was like a cornerstone for some
reason of a lot of my drafts. And then I would move through and I'd go, boy, I really like where labor Tory and boy tell Marte is still there, and even on a certain bill they go, you know, Andres Menez really makes sense for this team because I took a lot of these power hitters in at second I kind.
Of like the position. I like some of the later depth.
I have to be disciplined about it because I think it's it is stupid to be like, well, I'm not going to take them because I like a lot of these other guys blah blah blah.
But then you screw up and you don't get them.
But from the Bryson stop, there's so many stolen bases to be had that if I'm given the opportunity for a bat like Bryce Harper specifically, who I mean, you know, baseball savant is red as red can be. Walk numbers way up expected well but top three percent, seven percentile expected slug and a two ninety batting average. That and expected two ninety batting average to go along with all these big, crazy hard hit numbers Bryce Harper's coming back.
We're gonna get like first round, Bryce Harper coming again. I can't take Ozzie Albi's over him. And then when you look at those little tiny factors the position, I feel a little bit more comfortable with what I can get later at second base than I do specifically first base or in some instances, I actually think like Luis Robert versus Albi's is even kind of a fascinating one if you're trying to you know, if you're playing in a five outfielder and you're like, oh, I might screw up outfield.
Hey, I've got Albe's at seventeen. I mean, excuse me, Robert at seventeen. So I'm a little higher than most as well, a little higher than you too. Looking through the rest of these, it's pretty much the same players, just a different order. After Vlad you have Devers, Louise, Robert, Corey, Seeger Lindor, Albi's, Dela Cruz, Alonzo, Corbyn Burns, Michael Harris, and Gossman. Now I don't have Harris, I don't have Dela Cruz. So some of the different names for me.
As I'm going through here, it is after Alby's at eighteen, Lindor at nineteen, Austin Riley at twenty, then Harper Alvarez, Marcus Simeon, who I want to talk about in a second, then Devers, Gossman, Corbyn Burns. Maybe a little pitching heavy here than some other people, Trey Turner, Vlad Junior, Pete Alonzo,
and Zach Wheeler. Simeon's the one I want to bring up because you've got Dela Cruz in there, which is a huge leap of faith, and it's all like the hitter version of the Aaronola argument we had at the top of the show. This guy scored one hundred runs for the last five years. The only aread he didn't was guess what twenty twenty when it was the pandemic year right, one hundred and twenty three hundred and fifteen hundred, one and one twenty two. He has driven in one
hundred runs. Two of the last three seasons. He has stolen fourteen bases or more three seasons in a row. He's hitting somewhere around that two sixty five is range. That's probably what we're looking at. Like, when do we start thinking about Marcus Simeon and giving him more respect. I feel like this is almost the exact same argument of the Aaron Nola, just the hitter version, where he's there, he's in a tough position, he produces it's a you know,
a good lineup. Like what am I missing? Why am I so much higher on Marcus Simeon than the consensus?
I mean, I don't think you're really missing anything. I actually think I would just come back to exactly what I said about Ozzie Albis.
He's great, Like, Okay, then how do you put de la Cruz over Marcus Simeon? Because you do? And again, I love Eli de la Cruz the player, but that was a huge leap of faith on a player because at his back he is one of these Marcus Simeon seasons this year, and I think that's a that's a bridge too far from my personal rankings.
Well, part of it is I think Elli Dailor Cruz is gonna steal fifty plus.
Bases this year that we're gonna go of this argument?
Yeah, well, I mean the guy, the guy stole over thirty bases while hitting barely two hundred this year. So if in a full playing time and if projections are gonna live up to anything in the batting average.
Where he hits two thirty two forty.
Also, he goes on and he just did an interview at camp where they were asking do you like to hit homers or steal bases more? And he's bass love stealing bases. I think he's in a steal fifty. I think he's gonna be one of the most aggressive base stealers in all of baseball this year. So if he can hit two forty and he steals fifty, he's gonna walk in. And if he hits two thirty or two forty, by the way, I know that's not good, he's gonna
walk into fifteen to twenty homers. So you have a legit shot at a twenty to fifty guy who might have some stinky batting average. I think the runs in RBIs can suffer. But that's the thing, Marcus, I mean, it's just gonna be His average isn't awesome, but he's just gonna be kind of consistent across the board. You're gonna get these high extremes with with a guy like
Ellie Day La Cruz, and these are different positions. So this kind of comes back again to my like where do you like to pick and choose on the risk reward. Ellie day La Cruz, in my mind, is a player that can set you over on stolen bases while producing in other categories. But I do feel like Ellie, like O'Neal, Cruise, like Jazz Chisholm, like Trout, like any of those guys.
I do feel like I'm now a little bit more cognizant of what's going on in my draft and I have to be I have to uh with it, like walk on glass a little bit more like I feel like I have to be more careful.
Please, yes, oh, can you please have a welshism here? What was it like the are you walking on broken glass? Is that what you're trying to do?
Walking on sunshine?
Like? You know?
Uh, what's the where you're being careful? What's the thing where you're being careful?
And you don't want to know Welsh?
What is the thing where you're being careful?
What's the thing?
What's the saying?
Is it like I'm walking on eggshells? Eggshells? It's eggshells walking on broken glass as an Anny Lennox song. So and I know we're the only baseball podcast who made it any Lennox reference today, I could guarantee.
You walking on sunshine.
Guys. The rest of these again, your second round mind is very, very similar in terms of the players, just a couple of different orders here and there. But I will say too, like I think I respect you of Michael Harrison there, I'm I think I will be moving Harris in. The problem is who I'm moving out, which is probably Zach Wheeler at thirty, and that's probably a change I'm going to make. So the two changes that I'm going to make after this conversation too with you
too is Harper. I have to move Harper up a little bit, and I got to move Harris into that top thirty. I'll probably bump Wheeler for that. But I gotta tell you, man, I think Marcus Simeon deserves more love. He should be in the top thirty for everybody, maybe even top twenty five, because I have him twenty three overall, and I just keep looking at it again. The position
he plays, the productivity, the consistency. I think it's the same thing where you know everyone, you on everyone, you you make fun of me about Alex Bregman all the time. Is Alex Bregman. All world is as good as Simeon in fantasy right now. No, but man, that floor is just underappreciated, and I'm sick and tired of people just not appreciating it.
If you don't have Marcus Simeon and Alex Bregman on your next mock draft team or real draft or whatever, I'm gonna be disappointed.
Well, let's speaking of disappointment, let's get to our starting pitcher lists here. Now, it's pretty much the same. Actually, to be honest, we both have Strider at one. We both have garat Cole too. I've got Gosman ahead of Burns. You've got Burns ahead of Gosplin. Why do you have Burns ahead of Gosmin.
I mean, I love the movie, talked about that on the pitching.
I love the move.
I mean it's a little bit more ballpark friendly. I love the organization, I love the offensive support. I just think I think everything around is in intangible, not to say like there's a lot of weird clouded Burns and the Brewers and not competing like you're gonna be in in the competition, independent race the entire season long. It
is a tougher division that's something to consider. But I think Corbyn Burns is still towing the lines of like being really a pitcher, and Orioles have done really great things with pitchers in general, So if they do get their hands on him at all, maybe he's tinkering around. I feel like he's in really good hands. So I'll jump back into like another two hundred and fifty strikeout, you know season for Corbyn Burns.
I think he's easily the number three.
I'm going Gosma over Burns because I think Gosman's going to have more strikeouts than him this year, same division. It's gonna be tough either way. But you know, Gosman last year are two thirty seven. I think there's a better chance he gets back to two thirty than Corbyn Burns, who's sitting at two hundred last year. And again it's thirty strikeouts. This is not a small amount. It's kind
of like that Freddie Freeman argument with Matt Olson. We're talking about a big difference here, Like these are difference makers in these levels, especially in season. Long rodo after number four is done, Number five is Zach Wheeler for both of us. Number six, of course you have George Kirby, I have Louis Castillo, his teammate. At seven, I have Pablo Lopez, which you also have Pablo Lopez at eight, I have George Kirby. Aa do you have Louis Castillo?
So we just flip flopped our Mariners. By the way, everybody, The Mariners I think are the best rotation in baseball, and I'm gonna keep talking about this and saying it. I've already bet them to win the American League West because of that rotation. I think it's gonna help Julio get to MVP as well. So I'm gonna be mister Mariner this year. I might have to go get me like a Marins a marinerswag like some serious.
I like the I like the trident that's like this tri the trident one that's on there.
Ye cool, But I wanted Trent Lions won a playoff game. I think the Seattle Mariners can get to a World Series. Twenty twenty four is gonna be a fun year.
They got the rotation and the bullpen for it. I The thing that keeps floating around for me is like I think Matt Brash could end up being like the biggest surprise closer if they were to give him that job with that sweeper, I think, I think that team is in a good position with a good bullpen, good starting pitchers. But I wanted to add something that works.
Your no injuries happened. You got Gilbert, you got wu you got Bryce Miller, you got all these guys here and more to come.
Yeah, going backwards just a tiny bit when you said Gossman over Burns, I do want to point out our buddy Ariol Cohen's ATC projections agree with you if you believe the like actual number, like the you know, like two thirteen, they have Gossman at two hundred and thirteen strikeouts versus Burns two hundred and ten, and the innings are actually six more innings for Corbyn Burns, so they fa ATC favors your argument on Gossman.
All right, So after we switched our Mariners, you've got Gallon, Castillo and Glass. Now I've got Kirby Glass now and Gallon, So again pretty much the same guys. Everybody knows I'm a little lower on Gallon because of the innings thing. I want to ask you one question here where we close out the show, and I'm gonna give my answer to who's the one guy when we look up that cracks this top ten that's not in our top ten? Right now, I know I have my answer. Do you
need more time to think about it? Because I can give mine, Why don't you start with yours?
I got quite a few names.
I'm gonna go simple here now. Noah was a guy that I just, you know, talked about. He's only a twelve. I'm gonna go a little deeper, have a little bit more fun. Freddy Peralta last year, through one hundred and sixty five innings, struck out two hundred and ten guys. If he throws one hundred and eighty innings and he goes to two twenty, he's going to be in this group. The era was a little high three eighty six, but
some of the deeper stats are sill pretty good. The whip was one point one to two, was very solid. I think the brewers, the brewers have to believe in Freddy Parolta to have made this Corbyn Burns trade, because I don't think that they're throwing in the towel. I think they're just saying, hey, we've got to restructure what we're doing here. So if they believe in Freddy Parolta, I think everybody else should. I think he's a player that's going at a discount. It should not be. I
don't think he is. I think he is a fantasy ace, and I'm okay with him as my fantasy ace. I know some people are not, but I am Welsh. Is there a name for you not in this top ten you think is going to crack it? Yeah?
There are a few guys that jumped to my mind that aren't going to be picked, Like Bobby Miller was one of those kind of an innings cap, Yamamoto was in there, Joe Ryan, those are a few of the guys that I immediately thought of. Joe Muskrove I throw it as well. But the guy I'm going to settle in is Logan Web. Logan Web I think is one of those, just simply because the guy who's going to absolutely eight innings, he had over two hundred and sixteen
this past year, really really low walk numbers. If George Kirby can do it, Logan Webb coming at a better cost, he absolutely can as well. Ballpark factors work pretty decently. It's gonna be a pretty tough division. The difference that holds him back is probably the strikeout numbers overall. But you got a great closer, you got a solid offense around.
But this is just a guy that can continuously maintain some really low era, doesn't walk guys, and if the strikeouts come up, I think he could creep into the top ten.
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Now, so here's a question, huh do we do like long hair hippiewigs or do we do live.
I think I think we do a whole thing on social media where we have a couple of choices and we let them choose, or maybe we do it for our discord people fantasypros dot Com slash chat Man of the pluses of joining Discord. You get to choose the wig for Joe Pizi in a poll.
Mister potato heads, maybe you know what we should do. Can we get an interactive tool where we could have us and then they could just enter like put like hair, and maybe that might be the team a little far. I think we might have to just be going to Spirit Halloween and getting some wigs. I think that's I just have my big aspirations. Well, I want them to be able to figure out what they want.
These are your big aspirations after all these years, this is your.
Yeah, mister potato head like Welsh and Joe.
Heads, well you know, all right, let's get out of here before we walk into any more glass or eggshells. That'll do it for us, But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey p We'll see you next time. Kids. Sorry,