Welcome in friends to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Baseball Podcast right here on Fantasy Pros and the Leading off Baseball Feed. I'm your host, Chris Welsh.
You can find on.
Twitter at is It the Welsh. We continue our Dynasty Baseball series, obviously the Dynasty Baseball Podcast. Today we're talking about who we're selling. Last week we had Tim kannak On talking about Dynasty bys. This week, Jesse Roach from Baseball Perspectus is going to be joining us to talk about the Dynasty cells, go by position, top players that
he is looking at selling overall. So we're playing a little bit of the negative side today though though there are some Dynasty bys also kind of sprinkled into the conversation. Thank you, guys all for your awesome Dynasty support here for Fantasy pro So make sure that you guys subscribe to the podcast and check out all the great features baseball is going to be hitting in twenty twenty four. Many may have already heard, but Fantasy Pros has brought me on full time. I am full time Fantasy Pros.
You know it comes with that lots and lots of baseball talk. So we're gonna have a great twenty twenty four with all the redraft and continuation of more Dynasty conversations. When you sign up on the premium side of Fantasy Pros, you can get into the discord. We got lots of rooms in there. We'll have some interactions, we may even have some Dynasty Discord only shows. There's a whole lot of other reasons. So go to Fantasypros dot com right now.
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Check out all the other great features. Let's not wait anymore.
My friend Jesse Roach from Baseball Perspectives joining us to talk about all these Dynasty cells. So let's go do it. Joining me here on the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Baseball podcast is Jesse Roach, who you can find as a writer and rankover at Baseball Perspectives. I have known Jesse for quite time, done lots of episodes, and that is why we have got him not only on the Dynasties the Cells Dynasty Cells, because Jesse is not afraid to tell you how it is. This is a difficult subject. Jesse,
I'll even tell you this. I was going to tell you all the details, but I was perusing some content kind of figuring out maybe in a certain place that we know, and I was looking, hey, what did well last year?
What did poorly?
And the poor was focusing on the negative. The negative stuff didn't do as well as some of the positive stuff from a content perspective. But you do need to have the conversation. And what a better conversation to have than digging in on dynasty cells here. So I didn't even get to give you a proper introduction.
Buddy, Hey, it's great to be on I love talking cells. I think a lot of people who know me in the industry understand that I am not afraid to be a DeBie downer with players. I often will throw cold water because there's just so much hype in our in our space, that's like all we see just about so I like to throw cold water on players. I guess the expectations that people have, at least for players as much as possible, because we have to be realistic.
I think that I presume I don't know whether you are or not, but if you were a gambler, presume you would be someone that would find some good unders. You'd be betting some unders you could you would be able to identify the like Andrew Erickson here at Fantasy bro, you'd be able to identify some unders, but you're right. In the dynasty space, the cells are so important, I think more important than in redraft. Like redraft is fun
and taking advantage. I think buys are more important in redraft, but you know, when you can get out, it's great.
But dynasty hype is king.
And you know, we had Tim Kanak on last week, and you know Tim would talk about when you're looking at like Ottana leagues, No definitely has kind of a stock system element to it, where you want to find the right proper time where you can get out, and almost everybody has a price to get out. Every dynasty has created differently that has arbitration and money systems. Some leagues you can just keep guys forever, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a time where everybody can be sold.
So we are going to put some focus on some players that Jesse has identified as cells in Dynasty, and we did positionally last week on the buy, so we're going to do the same on the cells this week.
Jesse.
So let's get right into it and let's look at catchers we have. We're going to focus more on the major league side. We do have a couple of prospects, and this is an instant where I'm going to.
Talk about the prospects.
But let's start with your first Dynasty stell At Catcher.
Sure, I guess at the outset. I want to say that selling in Dynasty is often context driven. You know, I think it's very obvious to say, oh, well, an aging player is a great cell, because when if they have a bad season, all of a sudden, there's stock plummets, it craters because they're all you know, they're in their
mid thirties. Sometimes Freddie Freeman right now, for example, you know he's thirty four, fairly safe profile generally, but you know, if he had a bad season, if you want started to go the way of Joey Vado, I mean, his stock in fantasy, you know, his value will just completely fall. The floor will fall out. So I don't really like to focus necessarily on aging players because I think it's obvious. You know, a lot of these players are going to
be good selling cells. I mean we're seeing that already with like Paul Goldschmidt. You know, his value is creted very quickly.
You're you're an insane person.
I literally was waiting to jump in because I was literally going to bring up Paul Goldman. You read my mind, because you're exactly right. He had a poor ish season because of his age.
He's tumbling.
As far as value goes, I would argue he's a huge buy. Expected stats through the roof tell a different story working at drive line, which can be you know, blah blah for some people, Oh drive line. But one of the things, it's just funny because I was this was something that has stood out. Just wrote in the Fantasy Black book Joe Piezapias, which is out now everybody can go check out. We did some Dynasty stuff in there.
Actually did a Dynasty mock with a breakdown. But gold Schmid was one that stood out to me so much in my writing because you go and look, you see all these expected numbers that we're kind of telling you a different story. But one thing you also saw was you could see that bat speed seemed like it was going away. Because hard hit numbers, if I'm remembering correctly
from what I wrote, they sustain. But the lawn ch agle dropped and I think it dropped significantly, So in my brain I started to just started to put together like maybe the bat speed was becoming a problem where all these underlying things worked in favor. And then when you know it, as I'm in the process of writing it, I find he's at driveline working on bat speed the exact same thing. So this is just like a little
tiny thing I'm adding and you'll add to it. But it is so funny you brought him up because he's a prime example of what you were leading to. Yet sometimes those guys can actually be dynasty buys because that is cratered.
Yes, exactly. I think Goldshman's a good opportunity by right now, given that a lot of people will not. He's typically drafted well outside of top one hundred. You know, I think I still have him within my top one fifty personally, but I wouldn't be shocked to see people push him outside to top two hundred. I will tell you in dynasty leagues in practice, you know, when my rankings are basically in a vacuum, right, they're context neutral, So you know,
in a vacuum, that's how I value him. But obviously, if you're a rebuilding team, you're not placing any value on Paul out, So the number of people who are willing to buy him is very limited. So if there's someone willing to sell him, they're going to have a limited number of teams to even work with. So if you're one of those teams, you can often you know, get a good value because there's just not much competition. Great. So that's just a.
Great that's a really great context point of knowing the market is a lot less guys get thirty three and over. That market is much smaller to the buy now and coming off of a poor year, it just doesn't exist. It didn't mean to make this about Paul gold Smith, but I thought it was a prime example. And I think your concrest is really important. So what people can know is this isn't going to be a list of thirty six year old guys and above that you're about to drop here, and this catcher sure isn't.
No, it's a William contraras so he's twenty five year old. He's going to be twenty six in a week. So you know he's a Christmas Eve baby, So happy soon to be birthday, William Contras. But you know he's coming off a very strong season, very strong second half with the Brewers. You know, he had a six hundred and eleven plate appearances, seventeen home runs, eighty six runs scored, seventy eight RBI, six stolem bases to go on top of it, and at two eighty nine average. So he
had a fantastic season. Huge strides defensively too, which I think, you know, for fantasy, maybe that it matters only to the point that it's more likely he's going to stick a catcher long term. It's almost a lock at this point. But my big concern is I'm seeing people draft ranking him as high as second dynasty catchers behind Adlie Rushman. I think that's a bit of a stretch for a few reasons. Right, Yes, he has big power, his evs are great, but he hits everything into the ground. His
ground ball rate has consistently been astronomical. It's fifty five percent last year. It's really difficult for players to change launch angle. It requires a lot of swing mechanical changes. And if he's putting more balls in the air, all of a sudden, that batting average is going to start to creep down because the more fly balls he hits the less the lower the batting average and balls and
play will be So there's a trade off here. If you want that like two eighty two ninety average, it's going to come with a very much muted power production. But if you are trying to chase the power production because you see the underlying exit velocity data and the hard hit rates, then you're going to be disappointed because the average will go crashing down if he starts putting the ball more in the air. So it's just a profile that I don't think it's I think there's a
very strong give and take here with him. I don't think that he's a player that has as much growth potential as some people maybe in vision with him. And I'm still just concerned generally because I think there's still plenty of underlyings were to miss in his game. It took a step forward last year. His zone contact rate jumped five percentage points from seventy seven point two percent to eighty two point two percent, and he's consistently had
very poor contact rates throughout his career. Last year was basically an anomalous season. Are we going to expect him to maintain that moving forward? I think that's also a bit of a stretch, So I generally think it's a profile that has less growth potential and a lot of createring potential. And I really don't like where he's being priced right now in Dynasty. I do not think he's the top one hundred Dynasty player period, and I just would be out. I would be trying to sell right now.
I know it's weird to sell someone who's about to be twenty six at catcher, who's coming off a career season in a favorable home park on a good offensive team, but I would be.
Yeah and taking a look here.
He ended up going in giving a shout out to Chris Klegg, who was doing some Dynasty mock similar to my prospect ones on the Dynasty dugout. Contreras was the second catcher taken in Dynasty overall. In this mack of the one that I was a part of, and it's got a third, I'm sorry third. Will Smith ended up going. It looks like second, and he was a third and this had He's got some really good Dynasty people just
in my draft alone. What's interesting is he's the third catcher going in NFPC drafts this year, going ahead of Will Smith as well. I think early season drafts are driving some of it. Age is driving some of it, some of the changes are driving it. But I devalue catchers a little bit in Dynasty kind of in general. So pate price, Yeah, exactly, And projections are great. Steamer is projecting twenty five eighty eighty with a two seventy
batting average and low strikeouts. That's fine if that's the case. I'm not with like similar to what you said. If those power numbers are going to rise, I think the batting average is going to suffer greater. And I'm really not sure what the team context they're running RBI numbers will be there. Either way, it's a pretty good opportunity not to be spending so much time here in catcher.
You just do have one other really interesting name I want to throw as a cell and I'm gonna guess this is going to be about hype, which is understandable.
But Ethan Solace is one that you threw here for Dynasty.
Yes, So it's funny because I was talking about this pre show, is that I actually drafted Ethan Sawace in the Prospect one draft. I think it was twenty first so overall, so I look, I really like Ethan Sawas. I think what you're going to see this offseason is all the big national lists are going to come out and he's going to be a top five prospect in all of baseball and in typical dynasty leagues and a lot of them that don't involve maybe more savvy owners.
They're going to look at those lists and buy that hype in a big way. Look, he is eighteen, he's on it's even eighteen. Yet he's not even eighteen years old. Yet, He's not even eighteen on opening Day, he's said seventeen years old. Catchers take a long time to develop. Yes, he's on a massively fast track, but doesn't mean he's not. He's going to like start stagnating. You know, he's in Double A. He's gonna spend probably all year in Double A, probably all year in Triple A next year. Yes, he'll
still probably get to the majors early. But I'm just I don't catchers scared of me in dynasty, especially catching prospects, for a lot of reasons. You know, if den Bell mounts, time is very lengthy for catching prospects, the attrition rates very high, and when they get to the majors. As you've noted, you know, catchers they have muted production periods. So you're going to see flashy hitting power tools maybe from analysts for someone like SaaS, but those are going
to get muted at the pro level. I mean, just look at what Adlee Rushman's doing. Fantastic player, but and you know, I all tends some purposes. It's a very clear plus hit tool with you know, above average power, but it plays down in games because it's a long season and catchers just are not going to produce like other positions, and they're not going to typically play every
day either. So I just generally I put Solace in a way there as a point of his age, and also just catchers, I just I don't like dynasty catchers at all. For prospects. I would be fading them hard generally, and I'd be selling them, especially when I see the hype building like it is with Salas.
Yeah, and you know a lot of people that followed me last year knew I was hype trained Ethan Solace.
So we got solved there should be because he's great well.
But also this is right around the time where it was Solace versus Filman everyone's kind of jaded about the j J fifteen class now and everyone just kind of dealing with that. And I loved everything I saw with Solace. The problem is where I was pushing him as, hey, let's get him top seventy five, let's don't be scared, get him now he's top twenty, and you referred to my I have the prospect one P one ADP mocks, which is over on my in this league Patreon. This
week is posted the ADP. Well, the ADP of him is higher than you took him. It's inside the top twenty. So from a catcher value standpoint, here's a perspective I'll give you. He went at their lows he went, or I guess I should say at the highest the highest he went. Ethan Salas was one pick away from the lowest Jason Domingos win. So for perspective, you could trade Ethan Salas pretty much as a one for one to
get Jason Domingoes. I'm a buyer of Jason Dimingez on the injury for this year, and there's a lot of other guys in the same general range that you could sell him for to get some pretty big stuff. He went the highest he went was fourteen in one of the leagues I put together, and Yamamoto went after that.
Now it's a pitcher, But if you're in win now versus there's just a lot of stuff you're gonna be able to do with the hype that's going to go around with Ethan Sallas and it's not going away anytime soon. Moving over to first base, Christian in Carnacion Strand he comes in. I stole you getting to announce him. What's interesting is he absolutely jumps off the page of expected stats when you dig deeper, what the hard hit numbers,
barrel percentage and expected numbers did versus the production. But you have him as a cell, yes, because I think his approach scares me to death.
You know, he is incredibly aggressive. He's going to swing all the time, and I don't really think that what we saw at the major league level is necessarily going to be something that we're going to see as being as sustainable as I'd like, as you'd want to see ol a first base only prospect. You know, there's a lot of under there's plenty of underlying swing a miss in this game as well with an aggressive approach. I mean he may not right, you know, have massive strikeout
numbers because he's swinging all the time. But I just don't love that type of profile. I think there's a lot of bust risk with him, especially on in an organization that has an absolute crowd in the infield right now. I mean, obviously they're likely to make a move, but even after they trade someone like John Fan India, they're still going to have a crowd and they're gonna have a lot of mouths to feed, and there's just gonna be if he struggles, there's gonna be very little leash
that he will have this year. I think he will go down to Triple A if he struggles out the gate, and that scares me because once that happens, his dynasty value is going to crash. Even if it's you know,
typical sophomore you know struggles. You know, we have to remember that's what happens typically with a lot of prospects, especially prospects that have scary approaches like income Arci on Strand, and yeah, the power is big, and he could be like Frani early career, Famuel reeis in a lot of ways like he could have that kind of like he could have that kind of value generation. But I just
don't love where he's going right now in Dynasty. I think it's some it's a point where there's a lot of first basemen in that range that I feel more comfortable with, and the inn Redraft, for sure, there's a lot more first basement that go around him in Redraft that I feel more comfortable with. So i'd be to sell him right now, especially when there are people that I know and really respect that love him and are hyping him to the ceiling. So I mean, yeah, he
hits in a great park. I don't really think great American ballpark helps players as much like in Karnosiu and Strand, as much as maybe others think. Because the power will play anywhere, it helps those borderline guys that have borderline power life.
Yeah we did it. Look at that, we didn't even play it.
Yeah, help players like in constiuent Strand. So I don't really mean yeah, he could hit thirty on runs. He could also hit like two twenty.
Yeah, I love it.
I think what's so important is so funny. We both run here, We're just gonna do this the whole show.
Be a best friend.
Yep, what's what's interesting about that is, or the two important things you said, is his approach with the level.
Of talent that that team has is a bit of a risk. I do think a lot of the.
Underlying stuff tells the story of a hitter that can put up thirty five homers and you know, can be a middle of the order type of guy. But the wiggle room does feel a little bit less. You know, they were playing him, they played him in some third last year in spring training, and they just did defensively. I mean, that was why he was held down to Defensively,
you know, you're kind of stuck. Luckily they have a DH spot open, but if you go through some struggles, they have so many pieces there that they can move you in and out, especially if they still do have India.
So there's a little bit of risk there. Take what we said before too.
You could probably get Goldschmidt plus for strand in a dynasty league, or find a perfect marriage between a team that is trying to rebuild and a win now team. If you have the opposite ends, you could find some homes for that and plus more. Because that's not really even necessarily capitalizing on it. For Cees number two, or I guess the second base number two. The second base option you have here, I think screams Christian and Karnasio and Strand at second base, except I don't know if
there's viable options here. But talk to us about your second base cell in Dynasty.
Exach Geloff second basement for the athletics. So he, I think is probably an odd sort of an obvious cell. I think there's gonna be a few that I'm going to talk about tonight that should probably be obvious cells. I'm not really seeing it in the industry. I'm not seeing it in practice. I think people are trying to buy Bye Bye because for one, look, he legit has power and speed. The speed is very real. I think it's real, more real than anyone ever gave it credit
and credit for as a prospect. I mean, last year between triple and Triple A in major leagues, he hit thirty four stolen bases on forty one attempts, and the data all supports it. I mean, he can fly, and he's a great base runner. He's had a massive track record of sole and bases, so I believe the speed. I think he definitely has a chance to be a twenty stone base threat easy this year, and the power is pretty solid, right, He's not going to necessarily jump
off the page with the evs. But he's been on record saying that he doesn't look he can hit the ball really hard. He doesn't look to necessarily hit the ball into stratosphere, he said. He's said that, you know, I could hit at one ten or I could hit one five and it's still a home run, you know. So there isn't much of a difference there. It just helps him, you know, kind of pick his spots. So he's a savvy hitter. But the big issue I've had with him, and it's an ongoing issue, is there is
a massive amount of underlying swing and miss. His zoom contact rate was seventy five point five percent, around seventy five percent last year. Actually, I think it was a little lower than that, which is terrible. I mean, that's very much below average. I think there's just scary amount swinging miss. He's fairly aggressive hitter that is not necessarily the doesn't necessarily thrive with like massive amounts of play
discipline either. I think there's just a very real risk that the average completely craters and falls on like through a floor. Yeah, there's power speed that's nice, and he's going to have a lot of runway with the athletics. But you know, some people are ranking him or valuing on him as a top one hundred Dynasty player, and if that's the case, I think you try and sell because I just don't think I think the risk is too high given his underline screen miss.
Yeah, and for perspective, when you were talking about the zone contact percentage, Spencer Torkolsen, who hit like two twelve get next beaf like two thirty two, had like around eighty five percent zone contact percentage. So just like you're running the perspectives of like, you know, there's a guy that has higher expected stats that had a bad batting average, and then you're gonna take you know, a higher early performance to really bad zone contact percentage. That's worrisome. And
Chase Ray, it's worrisome. He's a counting stats guy, but he doesn't have like Matt McClain is a pretty common player that you're either on one or two sides you're like, wow, he well overperformed and he would be a sell or. Hey listen, he's just scratching the surface. But he he's one of those guys that has more floor as far as his profile than a guy like Geloff, So I agree with this one. Moving over to third base, we are getting to a little bit of an older name.
We've had some young focus names, but we are focused on a player that is going to come into the season injured.
So you're sell at third base.
It's Bady Machado. He's going He's thirty one years old now, and you know, we've had many, many years of consistent thirty home run production, including last year, So I just think it's times this is a profile that's screaming massive amounts of regression. Obviously last year he took a step back offensively. I think generally there's just a lot of underlying stuff here with Machado that's scary, including the injury.
I think the skills are trending down, the home park is not favorable, and this may be one of the last opportunities to buy before he falls well outside the top one hundred in Dynasty, because next year he'll be thirty two, and you know, as these players age further into their thirties, there's their values just consistently go down.
I'm less absent certain extraordinary circumstances, and I'm just very leery of where I'm a child is going to be, especially coming off a very serious injury and surgery, and I just it's a guy that I'm just off right now.
Altogether, he had two things and you meant sell, you said bye, but you meant the last sell.
You know, he had the wrist.
I think it was fracture at the beginning of the year, and then he just underwent like I think it was like a tennis elbow type.
Of surgery in the off season. You don't love that.
You don't love those type of Sure, they could clean everything up and we can get good to go. I lean a little bit more into the by category, but this,
I think this one is a fine line. It's like, if he is being held at the top thirty or thirty five standard, then I think he's being overvalued and you might be able to consolidate and may if you could get I mean, I don't know how you personal If you get Royce Lewis for Manny Machado and Dynasty, I would want that, yeah, But I'm saying like in some league there might be that mentality where those don't quite equate even CJ. Abrams, for all of his negatives
are positives. Whichever way you look at it, Abrams might not be in some of that similar value as Machado, so that it's an interesting side where you end up taking this and you've taken this to another really interesting spot at shortstop, and we're actually going to focus on two of them. I'm going to focus on the top guy though. This is the major league player. This is the biggest name we are going to talk about of any player in the Dynasty Cells today. So it's shortstop is who Tray Turner?
All right? So he's thirty years old now, a thirty year old speedster, a player who relies a lot of his value is derived from his speed. It's just scary. Once players hit their thirties, they typically start slowing down. It's very clear there's a ton of evidence for that. Obviously, he's still incredibly fast, but he's also hitting behind Kyle Schober in that Phillies lineup, and so the opportunities to steal bases are limited anyway, so he just is going
to have less opportunity to use the speed. The biggest concerns I have with Trace Hearner are the declining contact rates. I am always trying to pay attention to contact rates because I think that they are very crucial for players like Turner who do rely on a healthy amount of contact. His whiff rate jumped almost to thirty percent last year. His own contact rate was a career low at eighty two point two percent, and he was, of course disastrous for the most part for the first half of the season.
Just that final hot stretch to end the season kind of completely saved this season. But you know, if that cold stretch lasted longer, which it could in the future, you're going to see a player who could really see his value completely crash and burn. And that is my
biggest concern with Tray Turner. I think the power and speed expectations should be more limited than what we've seen from him over the past past three years or so, and with the declining contact rates, he's not going to hit for the averages that he's has hit for in the past. You know, last year hit two sixty six. You know, I think something along those lines is what
I would generally expect from him moving forward. So I just think it's a little it's just a scary profile for me, you know, he's still being drafted very high in redrafted. I think then Dyacy generally you're going to see a lot more a lot of hype still with him, and I think he's a deaf. He's a player that I would one hundred percent fade even more in OBP formats. He's a player that I don't think people fade enough in OBP formats because he's, you know, a very aggressive hitter.
He typically has you know, about fifty percentage point differential between his average and OVP, which means he just has far less impact in OBP formats generally, so I would be I'm getting off of Turner. I don't dislike Turner. It always depends on the value you can get up for him. But if he's getting valued as like a borderline top twenty dynasty asset, I would be selling hard.
You know, A move I made in redraft and I'm posting my redeff ranks for posting this week on in this league and they'll be over on Fantasy Pros probably right around the same time, is I'm of Corey Seger above Trey Turner in redraft leagues, and I know that might not feel popular because of stolen bases. But there are a few bats to me that are worthwhile sacrificing stolen bases for Corey Seeger is one of them.
And I made that move.
And when you're talking about Trey Turner's value, not even trying to compare a secer in him, but like you could make a you could probably get a Jackson Holiday plus deal done, and I know, like I know they'll are going to feel relatively similar and similar in like true dynasties. Funny enough, in the the Klegg Dynasty draft I was in, Turner went to eight and Jackson Holiday
went to nine. So it's not unfeasible feasible to think that, like you could get a plus move on a win now team that doesn't you know that thinks they're selling on the hype of Jackson Holiday if you have some fear, so that is Trey Turner in there.
Yeah, Turner's average draft position on those and those drafts was twenty point one, so you know if he's being valued at that that and this is an OBP draft, mind you right, he should not be a top three player period in OBP. In my mind, and even in regular standard five by five, I would not take him that high at twenty, So I just yeah, at his current value, people are still like in love with the name value. They're not recognizing, my mind, what's clear decline.
So I'm off the other one. I want to mention it.
By the way, the next three it's all gonna be fun because Jesse is just absolutely crap on everybody's excitement hype. But the reason we're going to do this one real quick, just a quick one on this is he showed up in the buy episode last week where Tim Kanak is buying Jordan Lawler.
You're selling, I am, And again I want to say it really depends on contexts because I think that if people are value him as like a top five prospect, I think you sell. But I've seen him being drafted outside of like top ten in a lot of these drafts, and I've actually gotten chairs of Lawler because of where his value has been. It's been just like very reasonable, way outside the top one hundred. I will buy it
all day at that value. But you know, I think that if you're valuing him as like a top seventy, top sixty dynasty asset or player, I think that that is way too high. Now, his average draft position in those max is eighty eight. That's not bad. Honestly, I think that's not bad. But my biggest concern with Lawler is I think that there is not as much impact as I think some people expect or think there is there. The evs are far from impressive. I mean they're basically
borderline honestly. I mean, at the top end, EV's are close to average, but generally on the whole, his evs just don't jump off the page. There's just not a ton of power. He's not a very big guy either. He's a speedster. I think that if you have the expectation to think that maybe he could be Tray Turner, which is what I kind of think he could be like Trey Turner, obviously there's a massive risks there. Still
then that's fine. I think that that's a fine expectation to still have with Lawler because I do really like the hit tool. I think it's something that some I think that's it's interesting because you see so much mixed opinion about his hit tool. But he does have a very solid played approach. He makes a lot of contact, But I really questioned where the impact ultimately lie. And you know that kind of scares me away.
Yeah, and I think that's where the risk is.
I think it's too early to process who he's going to be and where he's going to be, but you can, obviously you have to look at the data that's been there. He is a wildly successful minor league career. He did really great in the areas in a fall league when he was here, But there's been some injuries, he's there's definitely some questionable power stuff that's out there. He's an aggressive base runner, though, so we'll see, We'll see where it goes and maybe really very real.
Yeah.
I've always thought he could be a poor man's Bobby Witt, and I think that's the best case scenario. But it might be instead of thirty fifty like Bobby Witt, it's like twenty thirty with a two fifty two to sixty batting average, And that might be the high and that that is what he would be very good.
That's what you would bank on him being.
Like a top sixty or seventy player if you believe that's going to be the case. And the hit tool does speak to it all, right, last two, this is what I was talking about. Any of that hype you're getting for this season, it's going to go out the window, as Jesse is going to take your favorite outfielder, as they know he is a cell.
So let's hear it.
Uh.
Nolan Jones, which again I'm gonna say is interesting since I did draft him in that cleg mack, but it was an OBIP mock. I really do still think Nolan Jones. He's just gotten far more valuable in OBP formats generally. So my big concerns with him are similar to what you what I said with Gelaf. The contact is incredibly scary. Uh. The zone contact for Nolan Jones was seventy one point five percent this past year in the major league level.
I think that that contact rate, married with his patient approach, is just a recipe for massive amounts of strikeouts. I think you know a three true outcomes player. If you have that expectation, that's perfectly fine. But I think that he also had the highest batting average of balls and play if any player at the major league level last year with like three hundred play appearances or something, it was over four hundred. I think you have to very
heavily regress his batting average. I think if the batting average falls fifty points, I think that is, you know, would be a good day. Honestly, if he's hitting two forty seven or two fifty, I'd be happy with that production. But I think many people might not be. And I think that some projections of that I'm seeing, the earlier projections I think are a little bit too positive with his batting average. Now I get the course field effect.
The course field effect gives you inflated batting average, your balls in play, and you're gonna hit for a higher average. Generally, that means you're going to be putting balls in play, which is the big problem with Nolan Jones, because he, like I said, I think there's a real chance that we could see, you know, easily forty percent of his play appearances or strikehouse or walks or more. I could
see that very easily. And that means he's putting balls less balls in play, which means he's not taking advantage of the course field effect as much as he as you want to see players take advantage of us like, so far, be as aggressive as you want put those balls in play. Uh, you're not gonna see it from Roland Jones. Now, the power is very real. I really do buy the speed breakout in a lot all the ways.
I think there's a chance he's a twenty twenty player, but like Zach Giloff, he might be a twenty tour player who hits you know, thirty.
Forty one hundred percent agree.
I do not believe the average is at a high, high level. I think this is like a I want to say Schwarber, but I think the levels of averaged OBP could be similar. I think this is like two forty on a good year with like a three eighty OBP. Like that's the type of guy that he can be, which is great for OBP leagues, but standard head head roto leagues. I just don't think the average is going to get there, and I think that's what makes him tough.
Yeah, I think an OBP. I really actually like his value, but I think it's standard, uh like average five by five leagues.
I do not final one.
How about a pitcher and how about a bitcher that everybody is excited about. I'm gonna be honest with you, the more I've dug in for this year, I think the hype makes all the sense, and I want to buy it is a little alarming when I see his rank, or I do a show with Scott White and he talks about Tarik Schooble, who I'm going to break here, But I I feel like I know the general consensus of where you're going to go as far as hype. But tell us why you are selling Treek Schooble in Dynasty.
Well, the hype's wild. He's wild, wild wild wild. He average draft position I believe in redraft is like top fifty, which is wild to me.
Scott having at SP nine.
Yeah, you know, we have to remember last year he didn't throw many innings, so you know how many innings are going to be allowed He's going to be even allowed to throw this year? I think it's open question. You know. I think that maybe one fifty. Uh you know, I think if you're expecting him to go like one eighty this year, I think that is hoping. It's kind of like a little bit too optimistic in my mind. Now, there's a lots alike with Tarik school ball, and I
do like him a lot. I think that if he's being drafted in reach raft as a top fifty player, that means in a lot of Dynasty formats, he's going to be potentially drafted as like a top forty player because he's much younger than a lot of the pitchers that would typically be drafted ahead of him. You know, he of course was fantastic in his debut, all right, So his average draft position in these dynasty dugout ADP was sixty two. So you know that's where we're seeing
him right now generally in dynasty. So my big problem with scoot Ball is I really don't like his fastball. His fastball's something that he was actually known for when he was coming up as a prospect, but his fastball shape is not good. What made it more viable this past year is his big velocity games. You know, his fastball lass he jumped like one point five miles an
hour coming off of you know, serious arm injury. And how he's whether he's going to be able for one, maintained that type of velocity over a full season and two actually as successful as he was. I think it's really questionable. I think given the fastball shape, I don't even know if it's an average pitch that you know, if you look at stuff plus grades for his fastball,
it's below average. It's you know a borderline pitch. I think it's better than I think what stuff plus is giving it credit for, but still just not It punches way below it's velocity. It's average velocity last year was ninety five point eight miles an hour. Is a sinker was ninety five point nine. Where I do think, I really like Scoop and I think where he can shine
is his change up is fantastic. I've all I've been a fan of his change up since he kind of was able to retool it in twenty I believe it was twenty twenty.
What year was that, twenty twenty one or is it twenty twenty?
It was twenty twenty two, very legitimately retooled his change there like it was a new pitch. I really loved it that year, and it's it's been as good, if not better than that, this year this past So I really do think the change ups good. I think the change is going to allow the fastball to play a lot better than it it really is. In actuality, he made a lot of strides with his slider. His slider is profiling a lot better now. It's missing bats at a much better rate too.
But the big butts come in here. But let's see.
But but the fastball is just not I think going to be a successful pitch, and it scares me. And I think that if you if he if the fastball Vlosi comes down to even what it was before, I think we're just going to see a much different pitcher. It's still gonna be a quality are mind you, But I think he's not a top fifty guy.
Who would you rather have a dynasty Grayson Rodriguez.
Or school ball Grace and Rodriguez.
Easy Senga or Schooball school You know what interesting is both went ahead of drink schoobl in the MUCKs that we're referencing here.
So yeah, very very interesting.
His hype is at the biggest.
That I can recall. But do as you will.
Those are some dynasty buys from Jesse wrote follow him on Twitter.
At j A wrote R O C H E six. You can also catch them over at Baseball Perspectives. What's going on? What do you got to plug here?
What do you got going on in the near future? Pods writing what's happening right now?
We're doing the top ten or the top top prospect lists for each team, and I'm adding the fantasy takes for each of the players, including a reckless comp for each player. I try to, like, I spend a lot of time on it's weird you're coming through baseball players. What did you just do?
What team did you just do?
I just did the Brewers?
All right, give me your reckless comp for Cooper Pratt?
We actually so he wasn't in their top ten. So I only do the.
Top lasphemis the last famis they don't have Cooper Pratt in their top ten.
Mate, honestly, I agree, don't. I don't make their rankings. It's a you know, real life based rankings. But like their bottom their number ten was Daniel Gillarty, and I wouldn't put him in top ten for example, to.
Be above him.
What if you recall, like one of the most ridiculous comps, you gave your reckless comp of any of anybody?
Well, I guess on the Brewers, I think Jackson Trio could be another Julio Rodriguez. I think that's uh. Then I have like Jefferson Quero is Jan Gomes. So I just call that reckless. But it just shows you catching prospects. Man. Don't expect a lot from them.
No, and Cuero got a bunch of hype. Jesse Roach Baseball Perspectives. Follow him on Twitter, one of the best. He's a must follow in the Dynasty world. Thank you so much for hanging with us and giving us players to sell here in Dynasty.
Thanks a lot, man, and there you go.
Thank you to Jesse Roach for taking the time to join me in talking about all those sell some great names. Some I agree, some I disagree, and that's all good. You guys can let us know what you think always over in the discord. You can tweet at me at is it the Welsh Fantasy pros all of that great stuff. And hopefully, as we are doing this episode right before Christmas, have a fantastic holiday. We will probably have one episode off next week with the Christmas week, and then we
will be kicking it hard in twenty twenty four. I got a full schedule of stuff on the dock at, one of which being a mock draft that I will be putting together and will be breaking down. So make sure you're subscribe to the podcast so you miss none of the episodes. Follow me on Twitter, atzitthe Welsh and thank you all for hanging at the Fantasy Pros Dynasty Baseball Podcast.
We'll talk to you next time, by friends.
Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast. If you love the show, the best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB