Sleeper or pretender. Let's talk to the pros. Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast as me Joey P Joe Pisapia, and today we're gonna talk about sleepers. That's right. We've got ten very popular buzzy names of sleepers in the fantasy baseball community right now, that a lot of people are talking about for different reasons. And we're gonna talk to Welsh here and figure out whether or not we're sleeping with these guys or maybe
we're going away from them. I don't know. That's a weird way to phrase it now that we're amore No, I guess not. But anyway, jokes aside, ha ha. We're gonna talk about these sleepers. We're gonna talk about whether or not they deserve spots in your rosters in twenty twenty three. And speaking of those rosters, if you are starting to prepare already for twenty twenty three baseball, we got you cover to Fantasy Pros because that draft kit
is out, it is live, it's amazing. It's got the rankings, the chee cheets, the projections, all the articles you can imagine and guess what, it's free fantasypros dot Com Draft Kit. Check it out, and of course if you upgrade the premium and unlocks even more draft strategy content, including all that extra stuff you get with the Draft Wizards. So don't delay. Go premium today. Wow that rhyme. That was pretty good. It was very doctor Seusan me. But don't forget.
The draft kit is here fanacypros dot com Slash Draft Kit, at least for free. Go check it out. How much you're gonna need more baseball? Go get more? Yes, Welsh, what do you got?
How much? How much was it?
Again? It was free? Free? I know, I can't believe it. Yeah. The special thing where I come to draft your team for you is somewhere in the Hall of Fame subscription. Your Welsh and I come over, we do a private session with you. We get your focused for we get you pumped up for the for the actual draft. You know, it's it's a whole big thing we do.
Can you imagine if you and I went to like someone's house and we're drafting. Can you imagine the chaos that person with them?
Oh my gosh, great, you know, it's like the Angel and devil on the other side of the people you I'll tell you them, don't take this guy.
God opens up. We're just like, hey, everybody would make ourselves at home. We're getting in.
Yeah, that's probably what we would get. But that's okay. We're used to that. That's what our families say too. So let's get to the sleepers. Let's talk about these guys that are out there. And let's start with a guy who, ironically, you know, he's in the top fifty, is right at fifty in the ADP, but he is considered a sleeper right now. He's actually somebody I drafted. If you saw the first draft show we've done already of the season, we just did it earlier this week.
The worm Ryan Warmley joined us for that show. But in twenty twenty one, this guy had thirty home runs at one hundred and six, where he's one hundred and eight runs scored. He was a highly coveted player. He's Ozzie Albi's second basement of the Atlanta Braves. Now I do believe he's being slightly undervalued. This is a guy that's already shown you thirty twenty, if not twenty five,
fifteen at the bare minimum. He is still a relatively young player too by all accounts last year obviously played just sixty four games, but Welsh he is just around top fifty, and to me, I think he is kind of a sleeper. I think he's still an elite player you're getting in a discount. So what do you think of starting this off with Ozzie Alby's Do you think he is a sleeper or is he still too good in your opinion to hit that mark now?
I think he qualifies as a sleeper because I mean, and this is why people are doing it, because he's his ADPs round fifty right now and he's clumped in and I and the projections I think are the thing that are really leading this as well, because he did not have a good year last year, obviously dealing with injuries and miss time, but a lot of the underlining stuff was not there, and the projections don't feed into that because the projections are looking at not only a
three year marker, but they're also kind of ignoring twenty twenty, so you're getting twenty nineteen that are put in those as well, and that's creating this bigger story of a track record for him. So the projections are bat x as almost as a twenty twenty guy this year, and he's going in the fifties and he's clumped in. I think it's kind of funny because he's put in with Jazz Chism and there's kind of injuries there as well.
Jazz has been a little bit more injury prone, but people don't feel that injury thing with Ozzi Albi's yet they do with Jazz, and everyone's like, I don't want jazz. The idea is that if he's a twenty twenty guy, Ozzi Albi's could be the very top second baseman in
a really bad group of those players. So when you look at top fifty players and you say, hey, how many of these guys have the opportunity to potentially return me top fifteen or even first round value overall, that'd be top fifteen in a roto Ozzi Albi's kind of still fits that mold because if you remember last year, Ozzi Albi's was the first round pick, very popular first round pick on.
The wheel, like a guy like pretty much at the turn last year, and now he's going at fifty. Yeah, to me, you get this guy third fourth round. I mean that's tremendous value there still. I mean, you got I'm not saying you have to pay the cost of the wheel pick, but to see him going at fifty and like I said, I snagged him the other day in our draft too. I think he was the third round selection. For me. I was like, I can't pass
them up. I just can't do it too much power speed combination, especially those leagues where you have the middle infielders you have to worry about. Speaking of middline, we got another guy here in the list who's going right around here, Corey Seeger at fifty five. His ADP has actually gone up a little bit in the last twenty four hours since we put the show together, all the way up to forty nine, if you can believe it.
But Corey Seeger, you know, to me, I wasn't surprised at all that the you know, the Corey Seeger first season in Texas was what it was, because when you see the guy sign the Mega deals, it's typically what it is. You saw Marcus Sime and his teammates struggle with the same thing in the first half, and we all know what happened in the second half for him. What was interesting about Corey Seger though, was that, you know, the power really started to come on there once you
hit July. He had fourteen home runs between July and August. And if you pay attention to all these deep metrics about the shift, he is one of the top three guys where the lack of shift is going to benefit him in a very positive way. So, in your opinion, is Corey Seeger a quote unquote sleeper still because just a couple of years this is another player that was kind of going around the turn not that long ago.
Yeah, so it's interesting you wrap the shft because that's a no that I have here. He actually last year was the tenth most shifted player with a ninety two percent shift rate, And the difference is in why he's going to benefit in what you were talking about. He had a three twenty six wOBA on the shift non shift three ninety seven. That is huge. You take on top of it that the guy for the last couple of years has completely just altered in how he hits
the ball, hits it really hard. Even in all of that mess last year, like Corey Seger wasn't phenomenal or any by any of me. I mean thirty three homers was good, but only a two forty five.
July and August got really hot and then just the bottom fell out in September and it really hurt the Splits overall. But there was definitely like I would say, it was a weird three act season where it started off rough, then it got really good, and then it ended poorly unfortunately.
And sometimes these guys are like that. Sometimes they're just s treating players like that. But in all of that mess, think about this, this is a guy that hit two forty five. He still was top four percent in the league in XBA, which is expected batting average and top three percent and expected slug and x slug. So both of those numbers, you take the slug in the batting average and expected stats being top three and top four on top of it, is going to take a huge
benefit on the shift. Corey Seeger doesn't have the stolen bases and lacks some of that you know, that sexy fantasy appeal, but he is a guy that if he's going to put up a two seventy two eighty average with thirty five plus homers, you don't usually get that at shortstop. You're not going to get the stolen bases. But if you get four cat, if you get three elite categories with a fourth solid and you sacrifice stolen bases, he's going to be a second round player. The only
bummer is that he's boosting up. I mean literally when I put this together, like what three days ago, he was fifty five ADP and it's already changed as people are going, or fifty five ECR and he's moved up inside the top fifty. That's the bummer as far as the sleeper goes. The more that he moves up, the more that you're kind of just taking out the top end of value. But regardless of the point, this is a guy that looks like he is going to be
able to rebound and benefit. You hit thirty three homers with a two forty five batting average, you click back into some of those expected stats, and no shift probably going to be on the top end of a really, really good return as far as the statsco at the short stop position, which is pretty deep. So yes, I'm not the biggest Albi's as a sleeper, but I am a Corey Seeger as a sleeper.
Yeah, I see. This is like the ADP that I'm not buying, right, I bet you dollars to doughnuts whatever that means that you are going to get Corey Seeger slipping in drafts. I think a little bit past this fifty ringe would love it because I think there'll be some people that are just a little hesitant, or they'll be reaching for outfield or reaching for pitching. I think
we're in those actual drafts. I think you're going to see that happen potentially, and you've seen it like you've seen them as worse as seventy, best as twenty seven. I think you're gonna lot to see a lot more shares of him closer to seventy than to thirty.
Well, and one of the reasons behind that, too, is because this position is so deep. You just did a fifteen team mock on in this league, and we were past one hundred and you still had Wander Franco Jeremy Pania still out there the mock that we did right here in Fantasy Pros, you guys can go and check out I've got wan A Franco at one fifteen. The position is so deep that I don't think people feel the need to jump in. Who are the guys that you feel the need to jump up on, guys that
also give you those stolen bases. Oneil Cruz I think has a better possibility of jumping Corey Seeger, and if you can take care of your stolen bases in other spots, which is totally doable this year, Corey Seeger falling backwards, it's.
Going to be a huge value Onnel Cruz at eighty one right now in the overall, so not that far off. But that guy like that, You're right, it's going to get smaller spills, especially if he has a good spring. That's going to change. Villa pass Quentino, first baseman for the Kansas City Royals, heard George Brett on the other day talking about him. So when George Brett saying nice things about you, I think everybody you'd pay attention because
that guy knows a thing or two about hitting. Last year in Triple A at eighteen bombs seventy ribies at two seventy seven, came up at two ninety five over seventy two games, ten dinger for him. I know this is a polarizing player. He's gonna be twenty five this year, But to me, I still think that this is a player that tracks in that sleeper range ninety four overall, that feels about right if you miss out on the elite first base, and I think it's worth taking a shot.
But are we running the risk here? Is this the next Luke Voight or the next sleeper that really becomes a thing more like a Pee Alonzo.
Well, the Luke void thing. That's interesting, but no. I mean the reason that everyone's so excited about him is a what he did in the short term of last season. Had ten homers in seventy two games while hitting two ninety five and had a higher walk percentage than his
strikeout percentage. So we take a rookie with that and the big physicalness that he is in general, he had eighteen homers in the same amount of games by the seventy or seventy three games in Triple A, so he hit twenty eight homers across, you know, essentially a full season in Triple A in the major leagues. You take all of that with the plate discipline, and people get really excited about it. Another thing we got to go back to the Corey seeker thing. He was the eighth
most shifted as far as percentage player goes. Last season, ninety three point two percent of the seventy games he was shifted on. And this is another one of those three sixty two wOBA on the shift, four twenty two Whoba on non shift. So you take great plate discipline, you take potential power, you take great contact skills. A guy that hit two ninety five in his debut and then you say shift big one. So this is a player at ninety four that people are like, oh, you know,
you get a drop off after Matt Olson. I think a lot of people see a potential, you know, top fifty overall return. The divisiveness, though, Joe is about projections this year because Steamer went through the roof, people got excited to seventy five twenty one homers. The Batex poured water on it. Sixteen homers with a two seventy batting average, and he's kind of low in RBI and run totals no matter what, which is why I actually fade a
little bit. I think based on this ADP, I do think he's kind of a he is the potential of the sleeper, but I'm fading because the team context is also not good. I think I said this a whole bunch, Like I'd rather have jose A Bray you at about the same cost than Vinnie pas Quentino. But you can see why he is such a sleeper and the cost has jumped up like a lot of these other guys.
I would agree with that logic. I think he's a sleeper in the right spot. He's a good one to target. But if you're gonna get jose A Brew in that same area. I know some people whole concerned with some of the drop offs in some of the stats last year with the Breu, but dropping them there with Houston in that lineup is pretty good. Not that not that the White Socks are a bad lineup, but god, they had so many injuries last year too. It's such a like weird season for them.
The Royals too. He played seventy two games, pass Quentino did in twenty six RBIs. He had ten homers twenty six RBIs in seventy two games. It's really hard when you look at this team to figure out where are the run and RBI opportunities going to come from. Overall, so as good as he can individually be, you can probably find more boring players. Nate Low CJ. Krohn, Christian Walker, who are just gonna overall put up bigger counting stats.
They might give you the average, but you're probably gonna get more at homers, You're gonna get more runs in RBI, and that's almost guaranteed, probably on all those players I just listed. So that's why he is a huge sleeper name, but he's not on like my sleeper list all right.
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the industry, not like me, terrible voice. How I ended up on hold a cold easily and h Jeffrey Springs He's not the worst. His ADP fluctuates as well. Uh. The ECRs at one eighty three on him, the best at one sixteen, the worst at two seventy four. Now, again it's very early, but this is a player. Last year Welsh one hundred and thirty five innings gave up just one hundred and fourteen hits one hundred and forty four strikeouts to just thirty three walks. Their very solid
performance at two four six ERA. Why isn't this guy getting more buzz? I almost feel like I do believe he is a sleeper. What's holding this guy back? Right now?
With ADP, I agree, I would say one of the biggest reasons why he's held back is because of how the Rays have used him in the past. You know, this was a guy that was kind of in that pretty much Drew Resmussen was kind of like an opener. Like, I think there's that feel that forever and always Jeffrey Springs is going to be held back from being a heavy, dominant innings type of a pitcher, and I think that's one of the biggest reasons behind it. Also just raised
in general that they're going to ever unleash him. This is one of mine, I think Jeffrey Springs, I think a lot of people agree. One to seventy is a steal. I think Jeffrey Springs is on the precipice. If the team does just allow him to go and unlow code, this is going to be a big positive. This past year, he had one hundred and thirty five innings, and like that's what I'm talking about. Can you I a think're
gonna go to a one fifty? You know, like they really hold these guys back as far as those innings go. Maybe they didn't plan a hand. If you can unleash him over a full season, you're gonna have two hundred plus strikeouts. He had a two four six ERA this past year. And check this out. He had a three
three two Sierra. So people pay attention to the Sierra maybe a little bit more of a realistic look at what There's so many era predictors now, you know, you can look at X FIP or FIP, and then Sierra tends to be more commonly like a better predictor of what your actual era would look like. So two four six cra a three three two Sierra. That three three two Sierra was tied with Zach Gallon. Zach Gallen had the exact same Sierra. Then you go to his K percentage.
She had a twenty six point two K percentage last year that was higher than you, Darvish and just behind Zach Allen. So I'm not trying to say that he needs he's going to be Zach Allen. But I'm saying he's got you to pick up. If his innings push up, he could push two hundred. It's a pretty good team context. I love Jeffrey Springs. I think he's a massive sleeper in value post one point fifty.
All right, next, got on the list here, Lars newt Bar. He's going around pick one to ninety right now on the expert consensus as of us recording the show last year, fourteen bombs, forty ribbies, and one hundred and eight games. If you look at the minor league track record, though, it's a player with an ops of seven eighteen over two hundred and nine games. I have a tough time with this one. I know he is a very trendy name. I don't think this is a sleeper. I'm going to
be in on this year. What are your thoughts on Nudbar.
I'm very much gonna be on Lars Newbar. Loved him since the AFL where he was being used as kind of a leadoff hitter. You go and look at his Baseball Savant page. It is red. It is the red sea, and it's not parting because it's still red the entire way through. Ninety percentile and average exit velocity. What's one thing I really look Ninety one point seven was his average exit velocity with a one thirteen max TV. You know, MaxV is what a lot of people pay attention to.
But to be able to hold it that high is very solid. Eighty nine percentile max exit velocity. Hard hit percentage was in the top eighty percent x woeba eighty two percent. He is just a strong ability as far as a leadoff hitter goes. He can run, He's gotten bigger this past year. He's very pull heavy to watch, but high walk percentage, good contact rate. He's a good leadoff homer, stolen base com I think he'd be a five tool player. I'm very very much into large new part.
The only problem is he is one of the highest moving up players as far as like the last month, as far as drafts have gone, he's moved up maybe more than anybody as far as ADP.
Yeah, this is a guy. I'm just not in on again that you've got to prove more to me in the minor league track record a cup of coffee up here Onredan. One hundred eight games is a good sample size. But I don't know, man. I'm looking at the three seventy three careers lugging in the minor leagues. That's not super impressive. The three forty five OVP that's not super impressive for the leadoff guy that I want. And two fifty seven batting average again, two hundred games in the
minor leagues. Look, players are with Maryfield was a mediocre minor leaguer who then took the world by storm and had some great seasons. We'll see if he's the next one. Let's go to Miguel Vargas, next guy on the list at two ninety three Welsh. Do you think Miguel Vargas is a sleeper or not?
I do simply be and this one is going to be a little bit easier for you. This one, I think is simply just about him not having a lockdown job. I've moved him way up in my ranks. I think based on where he's being drafted, he's a sleeper. Because he looks all but having the second base job in LA, and this is one of those guys I was actually
looking an interesting thing about him. He hit sub one hundred against fastballs in his major league debut, and that actually shows a lot about the player that he is. He's a very patient, high OBP type of guy that's walking, and he was cheating in his debut to try to hit off speed stuff, and I think he ended up hitting breaking pitches over three hundred, but it was sub one hundred against fastballs. Getting more time and getting locked in at a major league level, I think he's going
to click. You're not going to hit sub one hundred against fastballs. He's going to make good contact. He's going to have that second base gig, which is extra availability. I think he's had code homers and he'll hit lower in the lineup in there, but it's an opportunity. And he's way in the two hundreds. I think he should be closer to a top two hundred, and once he's been given the job, he will skyrocket, like all of these rookies will in general, once they're confirmed. Everyone's just
a little bit nervous. So Miguel Vargas this is a little bit more of a mean one, Joe, But I think he is a sleeper here, especially on his current ADP.
Storry Ruiz at three seventeen that this is the guy who's kind of blocked in that Padre system. Now with Milwaukee, do you see a clearer path for him to I guess return to this sleeper status that people want to put on him.
Well, the sleeper status is all about the stolen bases. That's about it. The Oakland A's are maybe the most embarrassing roster to look at. It's really it's it's bad for baseball, it's embarrassing, But for fantasy players, it breeds opportunity and cheap opportunity because who wants to a who like, name a A that you want? There is none, there's none
that you actually want to maybe rumin Lariano. That's like past one to fifty as Stury's got the ability to lead the league in stolen bases, and he's also got the ability to potentially lead off for this team. So that's why he's such a sleeper for late round stolen bases. I don't know if I buy it so much, but guess what are they going to give up any early and they they need to manufacturer runs. Yes, all of those first no, and then yes, they're not going to
give up on him early. Yes, he needed manufacturer runs. So he's a sleeper for stolen bases. I don't get super excited because I don't like to hedge my bet on like super late dudes that get you stolen base. I want even players that do well things, not a one trick pony. And that's what I think he is.
All right, Will Myers seems like a perpetual sleeper every single year. If only gets to be healthy, if if if Will Myers, if if this oh career has been if three twenty eight is the current adp right here for Will Myers. So let's talk about him in terms of your thoughts. Do you think that being in Cincinnati this year makes him a sleeper that is truly sleeper worthy of investment.
Yeah, if some candy's and nuts, we'd all have a merry Christmas. That is what Michael Clark Duncan said to us. And yeah, I'm in on Will Myers. I think it's simply the team context. He's going to be given opportunity. There is a growing sense of people that I think, actually, you're kind of liking Jake Freeley, so I want to throw that out as well, that one of those guys would pop. But Cincinnati we saw it with Brandon Drury this past year. Will Myers should actually be one of
the team leaders on there. And outfield really stinks and he qualifies at outfield, so that's one of the biggest reasons behind it. You might get twenty plus homers, and I think a lot of people are building that in for that. Really just again, this is kind of like
the age. It's not a good team, it's not a great team context, but he's a great ballpark to hit in and Will Myers has stolen some bases before, has twenty power potential pop. So if he stays healthy and he goes this is why he's a sleeper, and he is down on every single drafting format. Everywhere you play, he's way down the list and you can sneak up for it is your fifth outfielder. He's absolutely free all right.
Last two guys here, James Outman of the Dodgers at three seventy one, the ADP Michael Massey at four seventy one. Massy to me is very interesting especially in terms of playing time potential like a swing like the lefty bat,
second base is open for him. There talk about Outman and Macy, these two guys here, one for Kansas City, obviously altmen for the Dodgers, and what their impact and be in some of these deeper leagues when you're looking at the deeper sleepers, do these guys qualify in your opinion?
Yeah, I think they both qualify for it. So James Outman is interesting because this is a Dodger. It's actually baffling to me. I gotta be honest with you. I am shocked that the Dodgers are really showing the comfort level of going in with their outfield of James Outman and Trace Thompson that's Klay Thompson's brother. They would be willing to go into the year with these guys. Autman hit the ball pretty hard. He struck out a ton, but it's fifteen plus power, maybe ten plus stolen base
if they give him. This is one of the situations, this is opportunity. If James Outman is actually going to be a starting outfielder, He's going to hit eight or seven or something for the Dodgers. But in that lineup. In general, you're just spattered with great players across the board that there's going to be running RBI opportunities. So if you're inn every outfield for the Dodgers, that's better than probably the second outfielder for the Colorado Rockies. And
I don't think that's weird to say. So this is about the opportunity that outman would get. Plus he has shown the ball. He's shown the ability to, you know, kind of strike on the ball, kind of like actually a large new par He's.
Actually he strikes on the ball. He also strikes out. He's the perfect draft. You have a good April May where he's read hot before he gets figured out. You trade him about him about real quick.
Too, Yeah, strike out right and everything. But I would call Outman like Walgreen's large new bar. Michael Massey is way down the list, like four hundreds, but he's the last pick in a lot of places because it looks like he's been given the job. Actually, just got some video from a friend that was at a batting session where he was. He looks kind of jacked and he looks like he's going to be given this overall gig with the Royals, and this is just a back to
kind of opportunity. He's power speed under two hundred plate appearances, he had a Cup, four homers, three stolen bases, batting average around two forty three. Might move up in the lineup, maybe they can hit him two, makes really good contact. This is going to be a team that is still going to run. And I think Massey has the potential to get fifteen plus stolen bases this year. And again you're just looking sometimes to fill out a spot. Second base stinks and you can get him post four hundred
right now. Michael Massey, especially in deeper, deeper leagues or NFBC date based stuff, is definitely a sleeper.
All right. Let us know your sleepers. You can always put the comments in the YouTube channel. We love to hear from you. And don't forget our draftkit is open for business Fantasypros dot Com slash draftkit. That'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast. Follow us on Twitter at Fantasy Pros MLB, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube dot com Slash Fantasy Pros MLB