Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. It is me, Joey p joe Pisapia with me is the Welsh in our first full show of twenty twenty five. So of course we're gonna look ahead to the future. We're gonna talk dynasty rankings today. We're gonna go through Welsh's top fifty here, maybe some guys on the fringe, and also make sure you keep a lookout because Welsh is working on the top one fifty article that's gonna be on Fantasypros dot com in just a few short hours from now.
It might even be up by the time this show comes up, so just run over there and check it out. Welsh Dynasty is your bread and butter.
You're the prospect gurer.
You're the guy at the AFL who is you know, kissing babies and shaking hands and doing everything you need to do to get on the field to make sure that you are getting your finger on the pulse of what's going on here with some of these young players, but it's also some established veterans too.
It's a mix here in this.
Top fifty that we're gonna break down today with the tears, so generally speaking, you know when you are approaching dynastys, especially for the first time, and these you know, clean leagues that are starting in twenty twenty five, or if people are just trying to evaluate some of their players and what their values really should be heading into another year of dynasty and a league that already exists, what's your best practice when you put it out there for
the people in terms of trying to create a balance of prospects and win.
Now, Yeah, no, this is like the big thing because I think there's a couple encompass things in here in Dynasty. A I would always tell everybody, no Dynasty rank or list is perfect, and I know that like that can be like contrite like Okoyd, well rank now, but like you get a redraft list, you kind of know what it is. But in Dynasty, things can be whatever that
you want them to be. The Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory of fantasy baseball because it's like you can construct this super young team to play for the future, but you got to eat a couple of years. You can take advantage of values where people are only wanting young players, and you could take veterans to try to win now. So my rank isn't necessarily going to fully encompass what you might want to do with your specific one, So you have to understand that first and foremost. That's
the big thing. But if you know you're in a restart a refresh of dynasty, there are different ways to approach it. So my rank that we're going to talk about is a kind of overarching theme which you would have to make your own adjustments. I do you know redraft and dynasty and prospect stuff, And I've also done it on my Patreon as well at in this League
dot com. And one thing I've always said is like, if you are a win now team you want to start transitioning from dynasty into redraft, you could do that here with Fantasy pros and their ranks top one hundred. Maybe really make that as a hyper focus for what you're doing in a dynasty draft, then start moving to
your redraft. On the inverse, if you are a I'm going to play for the future, I want to get a bunch of the young guys, Well take that top one hundred and then start reverting to a prospect list. So that's how you would do that. So you have to come to terms with are you a win now, are you a balance, or are you a play for the future. So we'll talk about that in all of these ranks, because there would be certain levels where we would adjust to like, oh, if I'm a win now team,
let's start to bump this up. I don't think that exists really in the top It doesn't exist in the top ten, get into the top twenty, kind of doesn't top thirty a little bit, and then it's like, once you get outside the top fifty, then it really is important to know where you are. So this is an all encompass list that is talking more about balance, but you do have to understand if you're a refresh and you're a new dynasty, what type of team are you
trying to construct? If you're already in a dynasty, this is going to be probably more about player evaluation, or at least where I value these players in a dynasty overall.
Yeah, and one other note I would throw out there for those starting up dynasty leagues too is take advantage when when people maybe go to prospect heavy with you know a lot of younger guys who aren't really proven even at the minor league level, yet pivot and take the value of some of those guys that are established veterans. Even if they're thirty years old, there's still a lot of baseball left in some of these guys.
It's a great point. Two things I'm gonna add to that. My ranks, especially my prospect ranks. We're not necessarily doing prospect ranks here. My prospect ranks doing compass an overarching worldview. But my dynasty ranks are kind of a three year window. I look at these as a three year window in value. So you might have some dynasty rankers that go and put you know, a guy that is two or three years away, way way way high. I might have them a little bit down. I still value, you know, guys
that are not quite there in a high level. We'll talk about that with some of these, but you know, I try to do three year windows, So with that, I might even have some older guys a little bit higher in dynasty. And then that comes to my personal strategy here. I will tell you I tend to lean in more of a win now standpoint, because if you just legit, just break.
Down like a three year window, guy, like that's my thing.
And if you want to break down three basic tenets of Dynasty rosters. It's what I said before, when now balance super young playing for the future, I'm going to be on that first one. I want to win now. Me also like knowing that I feel like I'm very comfortable with being able to build a minor league system evaluate younger players. But there are incredible values. That's the biggest thing that stands out about Dynasties is the number one value is older players are going to start to fall.
You're going to see that in some of my ranks, and then it starts to go to other levels. People don't want to value closers as much. Starting pitchers can get pushed down. So there's a lot of just like weird little intricacies of Dynasty. But when Now, to me, has always tended to be the best approach with little sprinkles of youth and future play, because at the end of the day, you got to hope that Dynasties are going to stick around long enough to be able to build.
It for the future.
So I do lean a little bit more into the win now. But as we talk, this is closer to three year windows stuff. When we go through at least what my ranks are.
And for Welsh's full prospect write ups, to check out the Fantasy Baseball Black Book over on Amazon. Welsh, myself, Kelly Kirby, Casey Bubbao, all the contributors. This year, it's available on Amazon, and Welsh does a phenomenal job with all those prospect ryoups that he does there. So let's look at the big board. Let's start with the top ten here. Really like, this is kind of splitting hairs if anybody wants to, but this is I think a pretty dark good list. He got Schoey Otani at the
top obvious reasons. Is he risky because of the pitching?
Yeah?
Sure, Is he something we've never seen before? Yes, he is, and he's very special, so he's the one one. Then you have Bobby Wood junior, Gunner Henderson, Ellie de la Cruz aggressive at four, but as he continues to fill out that frame, you have to imagine there could be even more power to be added there for Ellie de la Cruz. Juan Soto at five just signed the giant deal with the New York Mets. I'm still on a
high about that. Julia Rodriguez at six, Fernando Tetis junior at seven, Ronaldocunya at eight, Paul Skeens at nine, Kyle Tucker at ten. I want to talk about Ronald Acunya. He is twenty seven years old, going on twenty eight. Now he's got both knees done. It's funny because if he asked me last year, I mean, he would probably want one or two on this list most likely. So you're getting a little bit of a discount on him. But I think people are starting to get a little concerned.
He's had a bunch of injuries now before the age of thirty. My mindset is, well, he's got both knees done. That was the bigger problem, and now we should be clear sailing hopefully for the rest of his career. Do you have that same kind of confidence. You must, he's a top ten player, But do you think the market sees Ronald acunia is still as closer to a top three guy or closer to a you know, eight, nine ten guy.
I've seen him outside the top ten in some dynasty rings, So I would actually say, I think there's a couple things that are in this too. You know, I'm good with Oughtani, You're good with Thughtani. I don't think everybody would be because not only do you have the age positional issue, you also have he's the old I think, let me look at this. I believe he's the oldest player on this list that I have, so that can
throw some people off, but he's a unicorn. But I do think if you wanted, like Bobby Witt is number one, I'm totally fine with. If you wanted one soda in a points league once a points dynasty league, one soda would probably be higher. So then it comes back to ronald' kunyan and what you said is you're right. I think last year the conversation this was Otani or Akunya and the things that hold you back I think obviously are
the injuries and the multiple injuries. He's not into Stanton territory or Buxton territory and anything like that, but we are stacking some injuries. And then he's a little bit affected by redraft values as well. Redraft ranks. Outside the top twenty, I think he's like hovering right around twenty. He was
outside the top thirty about a month ago. But part of it is doesn't look like he's going to be ready for the beginning of the season, so if you're starting in a fresh new dynasty, they have to consider that. With Acunya, that you would bite a little bit of the season, that's a little secondary might run less. He also mentioned maybe that's only this year. That's something to consider.
But also remember that's what we thought last time he had the knee surgery.
Everyone said, uh, maybe he won't run so much.
Meanwhile, seventy three slen bases. Yeah, okay, but he's even kind of talked about that potentially coming down. And then I think the other thing to potentially take a look at us if you're looking at like massive, massive impact, there were some downs from this past year. Wasn't like, you know, you're dealing with some arm thing. No, his strikeouts went way up from the year prior he hit
eleven percent strikeout rate. In twenty twenty three, it went up to twenty three point nine, which was more career average lost barrel rate. Obviously, there was more season to be played, and the home run totals were way down. I would say, my best is my best way to associate all of this with these players. It's not necessarily about Ocunya being this lower dynasty value as it is, it's such an incredible tier of players. You know, Hulu Rodriguez has a down year, one of the youngest. He's
great Tatis kind of retransform. He's always a thirty thirty play. We talk about Gunner Henderson, we talked about Bobby we Elie de la Cruz as well, is a unicorn freak who I think could be the number one overall. It's just such a great collection of players to put in here that I think Acunya properly fits a little bit lower with now some injury risk, little bit power down. Maybe the stolen bases come down. But like if you had the six pick in a dynasty and you got Acunya,
that's pretty slick. But you're already playing maybe slightly behind the eight ball as far as your production in your first year. But to me, he's a top ten I can't put him outside the top ten.
Skeens is the only pitcher on your top ten list. If I had a picture on the top ten, I would put schoobl Off there, despite the fact that it's really one and a half glorious seasons. He's older, he's twenty eight, he's left handed. He is about to hit the market soon, which we love guys coming up on contract years. My problem with Skeens is not how great he is, and you know, the routine is incredible. Everything
about Skeens is fantastic. My concern is learning the lesson from years and years of doing this in decades now plural. You feel like there's going to be a Tommy John at some point when anybody that throws this hard. So the question is when does that happen And does he miss an entire season because it happens at a certain time, but like a better time quote unquote, like early in a season as opposed to do in the middle of a season, or does he miss a year and a
half possibly two years because of it. It's all about the timing of that. And in Dynasty, that's just something. Of course, it could happen to any picture, can happen to school, can happ up into you know, any of these guys. But it just feels like the potential for it to happen to Skeins is a little higher than most And when you factor in the risk versus the top ten ranking, to me, I'm passing on all pictures
in the top ten. If I had to buck for one, it would be Schooble, although Zack Wheeler is a guy who's been so incredibly consistent, maybe we don't give him.
Enough credit to that's too old. Let's talk about Yeah, that's the problem. It's too old.
So let's talk about schemes here in the top ten and the risk that that really is out there, because I'm sure it's going to be tantalizing for a lot of players out there.
Yeah, I mean, I'll be frank, it would be hard for me to take schemes and take a picture. For everything that you said, I think from again, this is dynasty, So from that perspective, you know, from a three year window perspective, Scooble and schemes, Like, if you want to take Scoople over him, I think that's justified if you are thinking about the bigger scope, like there's a massive, massive age difference. I love schemes though as well, Like
I'll take the talent of schemes. It's not to take away from Schooble had one of the most ridiculous k rates on his four seen thirty seven percent this past year. He had a one point nine to six ERA with a two point five to three expected thirty three percent strikeout rate was absolutely absurd, and that Splinker just became an absolutely dominant pitch. He's elite of elite. He's young, but the problems massive college innings. All of these big
velocity arms have some type of an injury. Hell, I'll thow you this example. I love Sean McClanahan, so player. I always loved. He was near the tippy top, probably two or three on my list of Dynasty pitchers. Last year. Guess what two of the three of my Dynasty pitchers injured. Strider and him. So, to speak to your point, investment in a picture is really tough. But from the talent perspective, it's Paul Skeins. The age perspective, it's not remotely closing
the value of what you're getting on him. The three year window maybe makes it a little bit more comfortable. This isn't like a young pitcher who is like, oh, he's like the fifteenth ranked guy and has upsie. This is number one redraft pick right now. I mean everybody expects the production of what you've seen out of him is going to be a lead of elite. Can I get three years before an injury? Yeah? I do think it's a possibility, but you are taking on inherent risk.
We always chase this with Chris Sale. I would just throw out everybody year in and year out, would chase this idea. Chris ail his arm, He's going to blow it out and it never happen. It's kind of a different world that we're in right now. So I agree with you. I think this is the riskiest of all of this because you've got these incredible hitters that are around him. You've got some incredible hitters right behind him.
But if you want to own the starting pitcher market, this is what you're going to have to pay for. Paul Skins. Paul Skins is higher and a lot.
Of strider in your top ten last year.
Welsh, No, but he was my number one sp for Dynasty.
Right, Well, there's the cautionary tale. That's why.
Yeah, one hundred percent.
I imagine he was top fifteen or twenty for sure.
Yes, I think it was like I want to say, like yeah, nineteen or eighteen or something like that, right in that range.
Yeah, all right, let's get to the next grouping of ten here eleven through twenty Corbyn Carroll with Arizona Jackson, Curio, who really turned out on the second half at twelve, with Milwaukee lad Junior at thirteen, Aaron Judge at fourteen, Jose Ramirez at fifteen. Maybe not enough respect for Jose Ramirez. I know he's not as young as some of the other guys in this list, but man, oh man, that guy just continues to have seiye.
So you take a three year window, I mean, this is huge value right there.
But I was thinking the same thing.
I'm looking at him there and I'm thinking to myself, Man, do I feel better about him in a three year window than Jackson Cheerio?
Probably? Like I just do. I love Cheerio, but like.
I think I know what I'm getting in the next couple of years, and I think Cherio's is a great player who's going to really be special. But three year window maybe Jose Ramirez, But regardless, We'll continue on here sixteen to Rescooble, seventeen, Bryce Harper, and then Jordan Alvarez at eighteen. We have Mookie Bets at nineteen, James Wood at twenty. Let's start with Corbyn Carroll a mixed bag last year, very frustrating first half, prolific second half, sophomore
slumps happened. Adjustments get made. He made them, so obviously, you know, putting your Arizona Diamondbacks love aside, you know that Corbyn Carroll, you and I are both big fans of his. He did what he had to do for me and clearly for you two with this ranking where okay, the league adjusted to you. You made adjustments back second half was fantastic and now it should be theoretically clear sailing. Yes, do you worry about frame or size with Corbyn Carroll in terms of long term investment?
You know, fram in size is not it's not a big I mean, you could have had that same argument about like hose Al Tuve his entire career and he's consolutely going.
Well and worse because he plays the infield because exactly and more, you know, he's a little bit thicker and stuff like that, and you could make arguments that maybe the everybody on the planet was like Corbyn Carroll's shoulder.
Those two things were peanut butter and jelly for conversations about why he wasn't producing as well, and you could maybe say, like, oh, a guy with that type of frame, you know in the velocity you want to talk about bat speed We have new bat speed trackers this past year, and God has gonna be amazing being able to go year over year bat speed. But you want to talk about bat speed, he was like top essentially twentieth percentile in the league, quite a bit faster than the average.
So that type of like framing could be the issue. We never did find out if there was a shoulder injury that was actually going on. What we did know and I talked about all year, was there was a hole in the swing in his rookie year that people didn't take advantage of. They saw it in the off season and they pounded it. This past year was up and inside. He could not figure it out until the second half. I mean, the power surge was bad. In
the first half. He had five homers, but in three hundred and fifty three of bats in the first half. In the second half, in two hundred and thirty six at bats, he hit seventeen homers. He tripled his power output. He figured it out to twelve average in the first half two fifty eight in the second half. Stole I mean, the stolen base pace was higher because he was getting on base more. But there's some downside. So we've now experienced.
What the downside is his expected batting average was only two forty coming off of hitting what was it to thirty one? So that doesn't like if he had like an expected two seventy five, we'd be like, oh my gosh, Corbyn Carroll could be back to being a three hundred hitter. What we found out about him was he's a guy who wants to work through it. Maybe he's not as high contact of a player as we thought before, but he proved h whatever you thought about the injuries, that
the power was still there. He showed twenty plus power. He still stole thirty five bases. These paces weren't as much as the rookie season, but he walked more, he struck out less. This past year. He kept barreling the ball and he was able to push through a monster second half. All the talent in the world to be a twenty five to fifty player year in and year out, and he worked through some big bumps. Is out of
first round fantasy talent? I still think it is, but there's risk and that's why the last thing I would say is it is a very interesting and weird situation when you get to like right up to Skeens. Then you get Skeens, and then you look at all this collection of players where there's these older guys, there's Judge, there's Ramirez, and then there's the Corbyn Carrolls, and then there's the Jackson Turios. You're now really bound and sing, you know, do I want the upside versus what I've
always had? And that's why, Like, if you wanted to take Cozier Ramirez over Carol here, I think you could last time, I'll say, to be honest, yeah, and I think I know you would. I My rank isn't one hundred percent in a three year window. It's weighted to a three year windows. So the three year window takes a higher weight. So when you do the whole, like, would I rather have Ramirez overturio? Yeah, maybe I see that, but you still have to think about the long term.
But yes, Corbin Carrol has inherent risk. But I think the second half told us a really great story that this is one of those guys that can be twenty to twenty five with anywhere from thirty five to fifty plus stolen bases in a high powered offense. So I still love him, and yes I am a Homer. He's literally right above me on the camera.
Now, you got two guys named Corbin on the Diamondbacks. How's that going to work out?
I know all the Cordle thing.
We've also got Vlad Garrow Junior on this list at thirteen. Who uncertainty next year where he's going to be? How do you factor that in too, because you know a lot of I think the future of Lad Guerrero has to do with what environment is in and hopefully it's a good environment for him. We've seen him struggle at times with weight, We've seen him struggle at times at the plate. And last year was a great season for Vlad, a big bounce back again monster a second half, that
big contract looming. Is Vlad Guerrero Junior for you, with that uncertainty of where he is next year a good investment.
Yeah.
I don't think the certainty that looks like he's not going to be a blue Jay. It might be more certain that he's not feeling to be there. Yeah, So the uncertainty you're talking about is the destination. I think most of the places he's going to go, or at least he's projected to, are better hitting environments. You know Boston is the number one right now. I'll take him hitting in Boston over Toronto.
So I want him in San Francisco, you know what I mean? That would be where it's like they've got money. They've been trying to spend it for the last three years so hard.
That would be one that would that would you're one hundred percent right, but if you were a Dodger, that would be the best thing on the planet. Can we not carry now we're not going on Boston? Seems like a likely situation. So when you talk about the uncertainty, the destination is probably going to be a better hitting environment. The destination the team will probably have better players around
him for better run support. And then on top of it, you put this twenty five year old first baseman who was top ten percentile across the board in hitting thirteen point seven percent barrel rate, top nine percent hard hit rate, fifty four point nine, top three percent in the league. He hit three twenty three. His expected batting average was three twenty one. It's like the best in the league. He checked every single box, doesn't strike out, walked more,
barreled more. He's in a contract year right now. And then the environment can get better. Everything is in this beautiful scenario for Vlad. The only negatives from Dynasty is he's kind of like a first baseman doesn't steal bases, but he's centered around you know, older players like I mean, Judge is going to hit more homers, but he's a bit older. You can pair out some of the other first basemen that have kind of lost some of the value. Bryce Harper is probably a good comp but he's younger.
He's still just really young. He's an incredible bat who's shown high batting average and is a elite four category player. So I love Lad from the age, from the uncertainty that is probably only going to be a plus. I just think he's a great Dynasty buy in the second round. But you were kind of devoid of stolen bases. There a really great pairing if you were, if you had the ability to Ellie and vladd would be like a killer one two punch for stolen bass. Well.
Actually it's funny because in this ten team where you're wrapping around here, Akunya in Vlad would be the the actual combination there.
Love that, too shabby, Go play a ten team Dynasty, then go.
Do that Alaska Crack the Talk twenty two.
I want to talk about it is James Wood, who last year at twenty one, made his debut hit two sixty four seven eighty one ops, nine homers, fourteen steals. Stage didn't look too big. I'm aggressive on him, and I'm happy you are too. I want to talk about your aggression with James Wood because I think we see eye to eye on this guy.
Yeah, and I think James Wood is the first representation of the young player where their redraft value does not equate to the dynasty, because that's the thing that everybody has to come to terms with in dynasties. You're like, oh my god, why is this guy who's never played, you know, I never had a single atout in the majors. Why is this guy in the top sixty over this other guy? James Wood is the first representation of redraft not translating to it, but it is. You know, it's
all the potential, like what you're talking about. He had two sixty four last year, which you love. Lowered his strikeout rate at triple a, still pretty high at the majors. That's going to improve. Walk rate was good, a great ten percent barrel rate hard hit was elite at fifty two percent, which is bonkers, and his expected batting average
supported his batting average. So all these fun things. He barrels the ball, he hits it hard, batting average is supportive of where he was, so you can grow on it. He's got tools for days. I said this last year. I think I said it here. I said it on a show over on CBS that if you want a player for the future to project that has freak likabilities like Elie de la Cruz, it's James Wood. James woodd
be that type of player. And it's not even just meant to be like physical comps of like he's six foot seven or whatever.
No, it's like this all the tools.
Yeah, this dude.
Doesn't be eye test.
He's improved his back to ball skills exponentially. He could always run, but now you're looking at a guy that could go thirty thirty. So you got to this is where you have to start paying up for someone whose production doesn't quite justify the cost. He's that first representation of it. And I think this is you know where you maybe and here would be a good example of
something you could do. You're like Joe, and you say I want Jose Ramirez a little bit higher over another, you know, like you want to do it over Carol or Jackson Curio. Take Ramirez in the first and then come back and get James Wood and you're getting some of that upside. Those two could be really great combinations.
I agree. I think that's a great way to put it too. Uh, let's talk at Roster construction one on one, folks. Yeah, a little bit of upside, a little bit of floor there. You got the best of all worlds. Next here on
our list twenty one through thirty. Francisco Lindora twenty one, Rafield Dever's a twenty two look to be moving positions there, Junior Cavanaro at twenty three, Jared Durant twenty four, White Langford cracking the top twenty five, Spencer Stryder, Austin Reiley, Garrett Crochet, a bunch of pitchers there, and then you have Katel Marte at twenty nine and Jackson Merrill at thirty. Junior Camanaro, guy I was very high on last year.
I'm still very high on Camanaro. However, I'm just not sure if he's done enough yet to warrant the top twenty five, which is basically where he is. He's right in that twenty three range. What did you see out of him last year? I only hit under two fifty. The OBP was a great small sample forty three games, but still I would like to see a little bit more before we get quite to top twenty five stats
for Cavanaro. I think it's too high. Why are you so aggressive on the Projectability's just because he missed so much time being hurt last year.
Yeah, I mean I don't don't think you can take it too too much out of like the rookie campaign, he's twenty one years old. He had a two almost it's called two to fifty batting average in the majors. Prior to that in the miners, he had shown the ability to lower that strikeout rate, which he also did in the majors twenty two percent in his you know first campaign of twenty twenty three, twenty one point five.
Very good for a rookie, elite barrel, elite ish hard hit for a rookie at forty five percent, already put one up one sixteen on max EV. So I'm getting at is you got a guy that is not striking out a bunch has always had elite, elite contact skills. You're talking thirty plus homer projection.
You know.
The offense around him maybe is a bit of a question. But this, this is that battle where they waited three year kind of moves a little bit because this is a twenty one year old, like he has time to work his projection of a player as long as it keeps moving in the right direction, is someone that's probably going to look like a Rafael Devers, if not better. So that's why you pay this price right now. And this is a battle of that win now versus playing
for the future. But I think he's a happy medium because you're going to get full year production out of him this year, and I would expect the low side is like two fifty to twenty five homers. Twenty one years old, you're going to be sitting on him for a long time.
Wyatt Langford last year had big xpectations. Now a terrible April in March rib barely terrible. I mean he hit two thirty eight, then May was only six games he missed. Time came back was incredible. In June eight ninety four, Ops hit three hundred, then May in August, I mean, excuse me, excuse me a July in August tailed off a little bit, only to be brilliant again in September where we hit three hundred again with a six ten slugging percentage of the nine ninety six ops, eight homers
twenty RBI. That is a hell of a finish. Wyatt Langford could be one of these guys like if he could find that consistency, would be a top ten maybe next year. Do you see that jump or is it more of this growing pains and finding himself in twenty twenty five.
There's a little part of me that isn't sure that there's like insane upside of Whyatt Langford he hit two fifty three, sixteen homers, nineteen stolen bases. Now bear with me just for half a second when when I say that is I'm not sure I would look at him and be like, oh, this is a guy that's going to hit thirty five homers, steal forty five bases and da da da. I think you might be like, he's
going to become a better hitter. From the two fifty three, he had a two to fifty seven expected batting average, low strikeout rate, but he settled still as like a twenty five to twenty five guy. But the base dealing looks aggressive. The plate skills look kind of elite for a rookie again, almost under twenty percent, almost ten percent walk rate, really great overall hit skills, and just a couple of notes I had on him, he hit two forty plus against three different pitch types. Again this is
a rookie. He had a thirty point plus against fastballs, so two thirty one jump of his expected batting average, so he hit two sixty five technically on the expected side he was expected to and almost a fifty point batting average boost he had against sliders, where he only hit two hundred but an expected two fifty. So what does that mean. That means a little bit more progression.
Those balls are going to start flying. He also had a three plus expected home run total in Baseball Savant, so just seeing that he's got a little bit more home run upside, all of the nonsense of what I'm saying is is like this. It looks like a really really good hitter, someone that can be aggressive as far as his running goes, and I think I wouldn't be surprised. If he's a two eighty five twenty five to twenty five guy, there's a lot of upside for what the
floor is gonna look like. I'm just not sure he's gonna be like Ellie or like Corporn Carol.
All right, Garrett Crochet certainly a great season, not a full season from only one hundred and forty six things. Now he is going to be a Boston Red Sox. He's just twenty six. I gotta tell you, Welsh, he is one of my favorite values on this board here at the twenty eighth spot. Overall, I feel like this
is where I'm about ready. If I'm gonna take a plunge with a pitcher, I'm gonna take it with a six to six guy who's two fifty and like just throws gas and now has found himself on a significantly better team with a different color pair of socks, where games are gonna matter now for Garrett Crochet. Anything else to add on this guy too? I mean, did you see I know it was on like one glorious season, but still I think it's a lot to like here with Crochet.
Yeah, I actually love your assessment too. Of like, maybe I don't take school. Maybe I don't take Skeins. You come into like a third round in third crochet. Yeah, they get some really little.
Old He's funny. He's younger than skoobl but he's older than Skens. But again, the size and the frame. I just look at him and I'm like, man, that's a hoss. That's what I'm looking at.
Yeah, I just want to agree. Three point five eight ERA two point five expected, so a full run lower when he was a White Sox elite thirty five point one percent K percentage, And I love this. Every pitch he threw had a thirty percent plus width and K percentage. Every pitch is elite. The only thing to worry about is maybe Boston Boston has some home some ballpark factors that can maybe negatively worked against him. Boston's overall the
second ballpark factor best for hitters. The Socks were the twenty first, and for right handed hitters, Boston is number two, Chicago was thirteen. So what I'm saying is is there, you know, for right handed hitters against him, there's a little bit more of an advantage from a ballpark factor, but he's an elite strikeout option and he's got plenty of time to go, and he's already got that injury out of his way as well. So I love him as a dynas you buy.
Next year thirty one through forty. Now this is the round where I want to trade out. I want to trade up. I want to trade back because this group,
to me, is a lot of volatility. Jets Chism at thirty one, trade Turner at thirty two, Michael Harris at thirty three, Cole Reagan's at thirty four, then Jackson Holiday, Jason Dominguez, Logan Gilbert thirty seven, Dylan Cruz at thirty eight, Latch of Projectables with him in Washington and Wood we have O'Neil Cruz at thirty nine, and then rock excuse me, Roky Sazaki. He wasn't say Rocky Sazaki because that sounds fun.
It's a great name, Rocky Sazaki.
Come on, you're gonna eat lightning and crap thunder. But anyway, Roki Sazaki. We'll see where he lands at the end of January, hopefully in a good spot. But I want to sort of Michael Harris in this group because this is a guy I feel like I can get, you know, fifteen and fifteen other spots, and I'd like Michael Harris as a as a real player, as a fantasy player. I think he's one of the most overrated guys. I thought it last year. I didn't like the ADP at all.
You know this, We had lots of discussions about it. I know there were moments last year in the second where it came to life. But he gets bounced all over the lineup. I don't know, man. Michael Harris, to me, is one of these guys is really tough to gauge. I would rather take a shot at with the upside of Dylan Cruzes at thirty eight than Michael Harris at thirty three.
Joe, it's funny that you say that. You kind of got me thinking a little bit because I do. Look, I love Jason Dominguez, who is a couple spots lower you've already got. So we'll talk about the guy in a little bit, But there's already some other favorites for him.
I would agree for the record too. Dimingez is another guy I'd rather have than Michael Harris.
I love Dimingez runs aggressively well.
I've seen him play in person a couple of times yere two in Somerset and he was He's terrific, I mean terrific game player.
He's not the best like the vender. And he's got some quota offense, yeah yeah, but offensively he's got huge power. Stolen bases are there. I think he's going to hit better. Dylan Cruz kind of the same thing. I love that. The thing that holds you with Michael Harris. Bad first half, like kind of again last year, but second half he hit two eighty three eleven homers, but he did stop stealing,
so it's kind of balanced out. What we've seen from Michael Harris is kind of like the Langford what we're talking about, where it's like the guy could be a two eighty hitter twenty plus, twenty plus, especially if he is higher in the lineup. That still doesn't happen. You do have me thinking I might make an adjustment because I think the upside for a guy like Domingaz is pretty higher than Michael Harris. Is just a better floor with here. Dylan Cruz might be the prime example.
And look at Yankees. One other way to add more pieces to lineup around some more veterans to that helps the ballpark factor is a very good one too. For the Bronx. Jackson Holiday another guy too, certainly disappointing early on some signs of life in the second half there too, And it looks like you are pretty confident here recking with thirty five, that this is going to be a player you want to build a dynasty team around.
Yeah.
I think the main thing I can throw at anybody is like I was massively, massively high on Jackson Holiday last year. I've obviously dinged him, not a crazy amount, but he is still twenty one years old. I still believe in the bat he had an eight percent barrel rate and a forty five percent hard hit rate. Those are two grit eight tools to build off of. He's got a lower his strikeout rate, and he has got to make better quality of contact, and I think that's
going to happen. So this my suggestion for Jackson Holiday, get a better discount on him. Get a better discount than paying inside the top forty. I think you probably can for people that are going to look at redraft values. There isn't a lot of what he did last year to take with you, except there's still good quality of contact when he makes quality of contact or there are good bat to ball skills when he gets to it, and I think that's going to bounce back this year.
And he's a good dynasty bibe. But try to get a better.
Cost on him. Now, Sazaki is interesting. You have him ahead of Yamamoto pitches on the Dodgers. Is that just an age thing or is it all some size thing too because he's a bigger pitcher.
Well, absolutely an age thing. Roki Sazaki has age in his favor. You know he is coming over and he's susceptible to the international signing rules because he's under twenty five. Yamamoto, I believe he's thirty years old. There are two. There's a couple conflicting things.
You got.
Baseball America is giving an eighty grade on his splitter. Lance Brasdowski did an amazing breakdown of what this splitter he throws. It's got, it's very unlike a lot.
Just twenty six, just pointing twenty six?
Did I say it was thirty? I think I'm making Yeah, that's a whole one.
It's thirty one. Now I think going into this year.
One hundred percent. But Roki Sazaki splitter compared to Yamamoto is something that might be a big differential. And again go look at Lance's video on it, where he kind of describes as splitter is almost kind of like a bullet splitter, where it has a different trajectory of a line of sight of what we're used to on the plane from a fastball to splitter differential. It's a it's a disgusting splitter. Guy's also thrown triple digits, but some of that thing has fallen off, so that there's a
question mark can a team get back to this. Roki Sazaki, who threw for triple digits, had this big extension. Here's the other slight problem. Really seems like there might be some type of UCL or Tommy John thing in the near future. So, and I'm saying this because I think some people are gonna have Roky Szazaki in dynasty higher because based on age, based on potential, the strikeout potential, he might be seen as like, you know, a top
five dynasty starting pitcher. I do think there's some worries this is another guy like Holiday. You might be open to even make let him fall a little bit, but the talent might surpass. He might not be in this same territory in two years of Logan, Gilbert and Yamamoto.
I think it's so interesting. Is the next guy on the list here at forty one as we start the new board is Dylan Ceas makes every start every single year. He has been so durable, he has been so locked down, He's done nothing but get better in the last two years to their night and day. For me, forget three year window, I'll even take five year window. I want Dylan Cee over Sauzaki, and it's not close right now.
So that is what's fascinating, and it's I think most people are prisoners of the moment, right it's the new thing. It's very exciting, get all the buzz about this. But meanwhile there's Dylan CEA's just getting the job done every year at thirty two starts, and that to me is far more impressive and far more investible long term than what Suzaki is at this juncture, having never seen him throw a pitch in the Major league.
You know, and let me let me add to that, because do you remember what I said earlier in the show where I go. I don't think there's a lot of variants in the first round second round.
No, maybe as you go, third round gets greater.
Fourth round where we're You're not wrong. This is a territory where you do start paying a tiny bit more attention if you are a team that you're like, you know what, I'm taking Freddy Freeman higher than he's being ranked. I'm taking some of these older guys. I'm gonna take Zach Wheeler higher. If you're in a win now perspective, you should pay attention to a cease versus Suzaki. It might take Sazaki two years to get right. Dylan Cees
his prime is right now. When you said five year window, I don't know if I want Dylan Ceaz when he's thirty five, thirty four to thirty five, But do I want him at twenty nine, thirty and thirty one in the three year window? You're not wrong about that, So paying attention dyl Sly.
Twenty nine, I think I say take out, Yeah, he'll be in his you know, five years from now he's thirty three, Okay, like Sill of these guys were going strong at thirty five, thirty six, thirty seven nowadays.
Like yeah, like Wheelers, these guys.
Wheeler's a great example, but this guy's just throwing up, you know, thirty thirty thirty. He look thirty two, thirty two, thirty three, thirty three, last four years. I mean that's stunning. The best ability is availability these guys. Rokie's got some risk one hundred percent. He's got some fun to watch. My evaluation of him in the Black Book is really good. I like him as a picture, but there's definitely risk there. Where he lands has a lot to do with his development.
So I'm keen to wait before I really do the full write up on him. Corey Seeger forty two. Corbyn Burns a forty three new landing spot. He's a guy who's a little older too. Same as Zach Wheeler at forty four even, and I'll get forty five. C J. Adams a forty six, George Kirby of forty seven, Yamamoto at forty eight, Albe's at forty nine, and then Riley Green at fifteen. Other guy who could jump up this list. Let's talk about Corbyn Burns here, a guy who's now
in his thirties. Same as Wheeler here, So you have Burns ahead of Wheeler. I'm curious as to why.
Well, there's a pretty big age gap between the two. I think it's three or four years. Yeah, so I mean in a three year wind of Wheelers getting into thirty seven thirty eight. I think some people could look at Burns last year and see like, oh, some things are starting to taper down, you know. Interestingly enough, he actually I did some velocity to his cutter, but that thing got hit up more where his other two offerings. I believe it was the slider, and I think the
curveball had batting averages against. It's actually three pitches here, curveball, slider and changeup had a two hundred or lower batting average against. That's absurd. Those pitches got better. His cutter got hit up way more than it had in the prior year, but three or four pitches with a two hundred or lower batting average. I actually think there's some subtle of unluckiness with Corbyn Burns. I think he can bounce back. Plus you've got you know, the super fast
offensive team ballpark might come into play. I still think the stuff is there for Corbyn Burns. He had a two nine two era, he had a you know, sub three four expected era barrels. He gave up a tiny bit more, but it was super low, hard hit contact with a super fast outfield. I think Corbyn Burns is lined up pretty well. I think he's going to bounce back. I think it felt like some of the inconsistencies is he was moving away from being elite. But I still
think he is really elite. And I thought this before he signed with the Diamondbacks. Honestly, the Diamondbacks ballpark factor might be a little bit of a problem. But back to the Rokies Azaki thing. It sucks because we broke them into tens. So it feels like Roki's in this different tier. He's really not. He's in a tier of Dylan Cee's, Corbyn Burns, Zach Wheeler, Emanaga. They're all different variants of each other. You know, do I want Zach Wheeler probably the best picture on this list. He's a
win now guy. You'd want to make that investment. Corbyn Burns, Emanaga they've got four or five year windows. Rokie's got a ten year window. It's it's starting to be your flavor. And I just am still very much on Corbyn Burns, but he's in that tier with Wheeler and with Emonaga.
C J.
Abrams. I want to talk about real quick too, because it's another guy too, turns twenty four. Obviously, there's power their speed. There's also some immaturity and some issues there to casinos casinos, but which we support. You know, go subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel.
Right. Just not a game day, just maybe not a game day, a game day, just like a.
Game And if you're gonna do show up and hit get three hits, don't stay till six in the morning, don't like get But if you do, go out there the next day and get three hits like those guys in the eighties, you know, smoking cigarettes in the in the dugout and god knows what else they were doing. I mean, look, just go out there and get your hits and then nobody cares. But with Abrams too, this is a guy that I fear next year could be top twenty on this list or outside the top one
hundred on this list. That's how I feel about Abrams. Do you see him with that same risk or am I being a little hyperbolic?
Nah, I got my worries with it. I'll say he actually outperformed what I thought he was going to be last year. I thought he was one of those guys.
That was like, well we loved him two years ago. Collectively, if we were like go in and go in. Last year the price got really high. We were like, I have an abidity.
For Abrams, Like and I know said this sport. I was at his major league debut Padres, No one's in the stadium, rookie league ball. He hits a homer in his like second at bat. I got it on video. No, it's just me and Abrams and the team. Like, I've watched this guy since the day he started as a professional,
So I have that affinity for him. But where his skill set has started to go, I started to question, like, this guy just learned to get the ball in the freaking air because he doesn't hit it hard, he doesn't barrel super great, he doesn't have pure row power, and he just made enough of it. Well guess what. He upped his home run total from eighteen to twenty this year. Stole a little bit less, he hit the ball a
bit harder, but his strikeouts went up. I just think it also the spants, like, you know, just below average kind of across the board. I think he gets away with some stuff, and I worry that his floor is like a twelve homer, twenty five stolen base guy, which is still pretty good. So I have him a bit lower maybe than some others. And then the immaturity, we kind of don't know where that's going to go, Like what's going to happen, Like is this going to keep
tapering out and become an issue? I don't know. I just think there's some warning signs on Abrams to make a big super commitment, But I don't know. Maybe top fifty, I'm still I'm still putting my foot down on it all right.
Outside of the top fifty one through one hundred, there's a few names that stick out.
We've highlighted some of them.
We'll talk about a few of them to I want to talk about Roman Anthony of the Boston Red Sox, a guy that I'm sure you know some people are still getting familiar with. So how would you justify the ranking here at fifty nine.
Overall, Well, welcome to our I believe this is our first player that has not had a single Major League at bat. Well, Rookie Sazaki I would qualify technically because he hasn't had an inning, But this is the first bat that has not doesn't have a single major league at bat that is on a really high part of this list. What do I have him at fifty nine? I think is honest. I think some people are going to have him higher. Some people have him as the
number one prospect in baseball. I don't. I've got him close in there, So he's going to be higher on another list he is. I believe it could be Pipeline or Baseball America have him as the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, and it's a possibility even if he doesn't break camp. We've seen guys be able to do. I mean, Skeins didn't break camp with it. His skill set immense Again we use the words like back to
ball skills. It's elite, big hard hit numbers. The guy can run, doesn't strike out, he's lowrid to strikeout rates. He kind of doesn't little bit of everything. Boston's gonna be a huge environment for him to hit in if he were to break camp. I would not be surprised if he ended up being a thirty twenty type of guy. So this is why he ranked so high. Skill sets
are kind of through the roof. I still like Cruise and Jason Diminge is a bit more than Anthony for some other people, but he has a chance to break camp. There is a proximity factor into this. He has got to go inside the top seventy five of a dynasty draft, a new fresh start one, and frankly, he's probably gonna go a little bit higher than some others. I did think redraft he has the potential to maybe disappoint this year,
so I'm not quite as excited. But he is very, very high, and most people probably just don't have mounts at the top fifty like I do.
It's funny visually he looks like Michael Rappaport had a baby with Robert t.
Niro and the picture you're talking about, you know, do your Yeah.
That's my son.
It's gonna play. It's gonna play very well for the Red side.
I know exactly what picture.
He does have that look about him.
But y yeah, yep, very good marks at seventy six. I'm just gonna say right now, he's gonna blow past this rank.
Yeah this year.
Love the lineup. He is young enough.
He's already shown you. I think he's a thirty five home run guy starting next year.
I really do.
And It's not me being exaggerating. It's certainly not me being a Mets fan saying it. That's you know, I'm self loathing more than any Met fan almost. But Viento's is a guy. I believed in him last year. We talked about on the show. We have talked about adding him, We talked about spring training, what he did, and you know, he showed you he was ready for the big stage last year in the playoffs. Love him. Can't get enough
of Entos. There's three pitchers in a cluster too, eighty four, eighty five, eighty six, Uri Perez, Shane McClanahan, Sandy el Contra. Now you're not gonna believe this Welsh in my keeper league. I've got all three of these guys for a collective five dollars combined. Wow, As I drafted them last year and stashed them at the end of the draft when people weren't paying attention. So I got one for like two bucks and the others for a buck or something
like that. And they have the escalators this year. So again you got al Contra, who was about his consistent a so Klann huge upside. Uri Perez certainly another guy too that looks like a big time upside guy. Unfortunately, you know, bitching all these guys are in Floridas.
Don't like, we're hoping that Altata gets out of there soon.
And now say mcclana had also changing location too. That's something we got to talk about too, because the Tampa Bay situation here, they're gonna be playing in the Yankee facility, the spring trading facility, and it is not the same pitching advantage that the old building was.
Yeah, no, you're right, and there's a lot to unpack on all these guys. I would say, I think these are some of the best values for dynasty. Yuri probably doesn't have the best, like redraft first season return value. I think it's gonna be like midway through the year. McClanahan and al Contra, coming off of their injuries, look like they're going to be, you know, starting close to the I think Alcontra will McClanahan maybe a month or so. I think these are the best, These are the best values.
Both of these.
Guys ranked really high. McClanahan is my favorite, but had the worst production before he got hurt. There were some really bad declines which I didn't like, but I still would invest in. I think these should be targets for everybody, no matter what type of construction. Maybe not all of them because of the injuries, but you should go after
one of them. Juri being the youngest, McClanahan, I think having the best tools, al Contra being the floor of all of those players, these should be some type of target. And I just want to mention on your Vento's thing. I might have Vento's too low. I do think he has a potential to blow past this. My worry still thirty percent strikeout rate, expect a batting average still under two fifty, but it's elite, elite hitting skills, fourteen percent barrelery,
big hard hit. If he's a two fifty thirty home run guy, this is probably the relative range, maybe a little bit higher. If he becomes a two sixty five, two seventy hitter, sty then we're under selling him in no way.
He doesn't drive in one hundred runs in that lineup, and then.
He's pet Alonzo. Then he's just younger Pete.
Just look at I mean, Soto hitting in front of judge, you know, and now you've got this young kid of Vento's and look we'll see what happens to Alonzo. Still this we don't have clarity, but I just think the intos is the truth. Man, I just do guys outside the top one hundred, The one that stands out to me is one thirty seven Lawrence. Butler had a terrific season, really came out of nowhere for a lot of people and carried a lot of teams through the summer. Just
prolific with the power. And now he's going to be potentially in a better environment. Remember Oakland's not going to be playing in Oakland anymore. The Athletics are now in Sacramento for the next couple years, so we'll see how that ballpark plays. So maybe there's opportunity here for some even better numbers for him and guys like Rooker two.
So that's the guy on my radar. I know two guys for you, Spencer Schwellenbach and Jordan Lawler one on one and one thirty six respectively, are also on your radar.
Yeah, just so just a couple of notes. Lawrence, I don't disagree. I know for a fact there are some higher rankings of him in Dynasty. I think there's an element of I would like to see him do it again before I make him a top fifty overall prospect. But he did show elements of it. Elite hard hit, elite barrel love those two stats in connection with overall hits tools. With that expect a batting average solid. He
lowered his strikeout rate. I think the ballpar factor for right handed hitters in this minor league park is a benefit, but there's a lot of elements of it that are similar that aren't big, So it's not like an entire minor league. It's not like playing here in Arizona in one of the spring training facilities. I believe it's right handed hitters have like a five foot differential in favor of them hitters, so it's a little bit in that spot.
So I'm a little bit lower. I suppose Schwellenbach personally is one of my favorites. I might just be too low on him, which is crazy, but I have him at one oh one, so he just missed this list. I think again, from a dynasty, if I could piece together the perfect pitchers through top one hundred and twenty five picks, give me like Crochet in the third round, give me a McClanahan and the fourth or fifth, and then give me a Schwellenbach later. Those are good investments.
I like a good late Sweller.
Everybody likes a good swelling box. Swelling boches slighter.
You can get one, it's the best. You sleep like a baby.
Yeah, maybe don't get a swellingbock on like Monday Tuesday. But give me a Schwellenbach on the weekend.
Yeah, on the weekend, on a week.
In, Schwellenbach is the best. And your dynasty team, Schwellenbach is the best. So I really like his potential to put us some elite strikeout numbers. So Schwellenbach is one of my favorite. And I just threw Lawler out here because Lawler has the potential to really skyrocket if given the opportunity, but we don't know that that's going to happen.
I personally think the Diamondbacks could end up playing around with the scenario where Lawler starts playing in the outfield, maybe similar to what Jackson Merrill did, because I don't know if they would commit to him playing over Heraldo Perdomo. But he just had a really really great run in the Dominican Winner League, starting to hit again. Homer's are
going he has twenty twenty potential. He could exponentially be more valuable than Lawler or than Lawrence Butler, but he's going after so Jordan Lawler is a outside the top one hundred to pay attention to, and I would just throw out, there's immense values outside the top one hundred. This is a spot where I really like to start paying attention to older players that have fallen. I think Jacob deGrom is one of those. He's really tough. How long will he play? Chris I want to win now.
I'm not afraid to take a kem and Arro, a James Wood, a Dylan Cruz, but when I do so, personally, I'm absolutely trying to find those values of the older players that fell not just be like, no, they're off my list, will never take them. You're going to find crazy values in a Dynasty draft outside the top one hundred, So make sure your eyes are locked in. And if you guys want, I got a one to fifty that's going to be available on Fantasy Pros and I'll do a little bit of a breakdown for it, and you
can find even more Dynasty ranks. Follow me on Twitter and you'll find out where you can find all the rest of you like up to four hundred.
There we have it, everybody. That's a good look at the Dynasty ranks. Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel. Drop your comments below with your rankings. Guys you like, Guys you don't. We love to hear from all of you and ring the bell to that goes things for notification. So you're with us all off season and all in season leading off, We'll be here every single day. Before you know what, we got a lot of content planned here for the channel. We are going to be your
one stop destination for all things fantasy baseball. That'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh.
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.
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