What's the Friends of Welcome into the Fantasy Baseball podcast right here on Fantasy Pros. I am Chris Welsh. I'm happy to have you all in here. No Joe piece of Pia he gone, He's not here for this one. This is a me time, so occasionally I might require some me time with some of my favorites in the industry, and that's what I'm doing today. Joining me for twenty
twenty four Bold Predictions. We're doing this pre camp by the way, so like I have one, I have absolutely set myself up to be destroyed because it could literally like happen before everything this episode even airs, So just on that would be aware of that one. But joining me for these twenty twenty four Bold Predictions is Justin Mason, my dear friend who you can listen to over on Sleeper and the Bust, Friends with Fantasy Benefits, creator and
the creator of the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. Justin Mason, what's up, Buddy?
Hey, also a featured writer for Fantasy Pros. Like it's like we're families, So yeah, it's always great to see you. You for sure will have your bold prediction blown prior to this Eric.
It is I know you know which one it is too.
Yeah, it is just how podcasting works that any time you say something that is any remote chance of like changing before you actually get to release the episode, it will change. So yeah, that will happen. It's great to see my friend. It's been way way too long.
It has been too long. Me and Justin pretty much kind of came up if they were like class. I've always mentioned this that there's like classes of the fantasy industry. Justin and I came up around Tennis years ago together in the little independent world. And look at us now, Justin, Look at us now, by the way, great great looking room we have back there. I love the colors. I need to put some color in here. But we are
going to be going through all these bad boys. And as you mentioned bold predictions, the interesting take we can have on bold predictions is it just doesn't have to be like this cumulative stat though that's usually what it's attached to. Since we're doing it pre ca you could also say this guy, you know breaks camp, or you know this guy is a halfway leader, or a certain move, and I'm gonna predict I'm actually gonna predict a convoluted move that's gonna go on. So that's what we've got
going on today, all of our bold predictions. Justin's got five, I've got five. And I kind of view bold predictions sometimes like it's not quite an urban legend, but maybe like a wives tale, you know why, why is wives tale? Where it's like there's parts of truth that's involved in it,
but there it's probably not gonna materialize. Justin, I don't know how you end up viewing bold predictions sometimes I actually struggle going on the complete bold side because it's like, okay, you know Dylan See's returns, it's number one starting picture, Like you know how bold? How bold do you tend to want to go when you're constructing bold predictions.
When I first started doing bold predictions, I was always like, oh, I'm gonna make this the boldest thing possible, right, Like I'm I'm gonna give you the hottest of hot takes. And I would do things like this picture's gonna in the cy Young or this player is going to be the best player in fantasy. Those have such small margins for error, and we're already dealing with things that are
unlikely to happen. So if we think of like a projection, so, like you know Blake Snell's projection for twenty twenty four. Usually that is a median projection, right, that is the like the average of like what could happen. You could obviously do better, you could obviously do worse, but this is kind of the baseline of the middle of what we think could happen. So for a bold prediction, I like to think of, okay, what is the eightieth percentile?
Right if the if the projection is a fiftieth percentile, what is like pretty close to the top of the line of what could happen? And that's kind of what I shoot think.
Okay, super smart. That's a good way to approach. If anybody else is looking on how they can approach creating some bold predictions, that's definitely way you can do it. One cool thing Justin mentioned it before. He is a featured writer on Fantasy Pros And when you guys sign up on premium, you get some extra access. So Fantasy Pros has got like a gajillion awesome thing that are free. I mean, you can get in on a lot of the draft wizard stuff. You can go in sink your leagues.
There's a lot of it that you can do for free, well, and articles as well, aggregate ranks. We've got some new premium articles and actually Justin I think was one of the first rollouts of it, where you can get Justin's top draft targets any premium article when you sign up, available right now, you can get a bunch of his
other free articles. But like I said, if you sign up for a premium account fantasypros dot Com slash Premium, you sign up today, you can get access to all the free stuff and all the extra goodies which there's tons of will tell you about, and you can get Justin's favorite draft day targets. I actually mirrored his structure of an article, and I've got one coming out this week as well. So go and check out the day.
We'll get back to the episode in one second. Because it is officially Fantasy Baseball season, and that means it's time for MLB Best Ball on Rival Fantasy. That's right, Rival Fantasy now has Best Ball. Full season lobbies are live now until Opening Day, then weekly and daily drafts will be available from opening day through the end of the World Series. Bestball is all the fun of the draft without the season long management in our league drafter Squad, and the app does the rest. No need to set
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All right, justin, are you ready to jump into some bold predictions for twenty twenty four, because if you are, I'm gonna put you on the hot seat for the first one. Your first bold prediction for twenty twenty four.
All right, So I'm going bold here, and this is what I actually talked about in that article you just referenced, which is available at Premium. I also have another article on Premium coming out in the next day or two on high stakes drafting, So if you're interested in trying with the high stakes world, check that article out as well. But this one is the guy he done six drafts I think this year, and the guy I've drafted in every single draft this season is Dalton var Show.
Wow.
And my bold prediction for him is that he goes thirty twenty this year. I know last year was quote unquote disappointing for var Show, but if you look under the hood, everything was actually better. He actually made improvements in zone contact. He had a very good eggs of max eggs of velocity. I think he got a little bit unlucky. I think he's still adjusting to Toronto now.
I've always been a Dalton Varshow hater when he was with your Diamondbacks, but it was mostly because I didn't think he was a catcher, and the Diamonbacks organization didn't think he was a catcher too, because I had someone within the organization tell me once that the only person who thought he was a catcher was a general manager and that's why he kept trying to catch the minor leagues. He's not a catcher anymore. He's a full time outfielder.
I think there's a ton of upside in this bat Dulton Varshow this year.
Yeah, that's an interesting one. Look into career. Low ground ball rate, which I think would absolutely be huge for him, looks like second to best career strikeout rate, his walks have dipped a little bit. I've just always struggled with him. He definitely has the ability. He always steals. He doesn't look like physically like the body type of a guy that's going to keep stealing twenty bases, but he can do it. But it's like the really inconsistent batting average.
It's the inconsistent contact for me that struggles in getting to that number. But if you're right, here's what's var show's ADP.
Is it like it Probably it's around one sixty or one seventy something.
I was goot to say, like two hundred or something like that. If he goes what was the bold prediction you said? Was it twenty thirty or thirty thirty, twenty thirty twenty. If he goes thirty twenty, justin he's probably a second round player, right.
Yeah, I mean, you know, as long as he can keep that average, Like, his average is never going to be super high. He's not a guy who runs with really high babbitbs. But he did get unlucky in the babby department last year. I think he's probably more like a two to seventy batted guy. Last year is two ffty six. If you could hit two forty thirty twenty, like, yeah, that's probably a second or third round pick that you're getting super super late.
Something to watch too. Career high launch angle twenty point five Toronto's like a kind of median factor ballpark factor as far as hitters go. If he shows any improvements early on on barrel percentage, hard hit percentage and continues that launch angle, that's gonna be that like optimized stuff. I want to say Jake Berger maybe had a similar line like those big launch angles Win paired with at least like really hard hit balls or solid barreling, it's
gonna do big numbers. He just hasn't clicked into that. G had a slight uptick and hard hit percentage. So just an all in the Dalton var show train. All right, here's mine and mine is a convoluted little chain of events that is probably gonna get broken by the time this airs, So hopefully we get this up like immediately.
But my bold prediction is that the Mariners sign Blake Snell, then they trade Brian Wo to the Rays for Esak Parades because they don't have a third baseman, which then in turn puts junior Cameronaro on the opening day roster for the Rays, but it does not win him Rookie of the Year. We'll talk about that in a little bit. So that's my bold prediction. There's been a lot of
Blake Snell stuff out there. I think the two biggest The two biggest rumors have been the Angels, and apparently the Angels have had the interest, but they haven't been given the go to release the money for Blake Snell. But Blake Snell is from the Pacific Northwest. I think he wants to play there. The Mariners, they've got some toys to play with. If you're talking about that young pitching. They also can sign Blake Snell without trading Brian Wu.
That's actually the most likely situation. Trading good young pitching probably not ideal. But the reason I picked on Brian Wu is because I think he's an analytics darling. He is the exact type of pitcher the Rays would covet and love to get. So I don't know if Esock Praidies works for it straight out. There might be some other pieces involved, but my idea is the Mariners have a huge hole in the corner endfield at third base unless they really feel comfortable with Rojas or luis Arius.
There had been rumors of Esock praties. They've already made a trade. Wu goes into the starting rotation for the Rays, Esock Praties comes here, Cam and Arow. It is a chain of events justin. That's my bold prediction, and that is my pre camp bold prediction. It's the only one I'm going to do. So what do you think about that one?
I mean, I like the way you're thinking.
I had not thought about that kind of scenario, but it makes a lot of sense. Like you said, Blake Snell is from Shoreline, Washington, so like that is home for him. I'm sure he would love to go back and play. It's a great organization to pitch for. Imagine Blake Snell being your number four starting pitcher that that would be unreal.
I think if the Mariners were going.
To make a move, they should probably just sign Matt Chapman, you know, just to me, like, you know, he gives you elite defense on the corner right there, and that kind of solves that problem. But I'd love to see Blake Snell in uh in Seattle. I don't know that the rest of it would fall quite that way, but you know it's uh, it may it all makes sense. Now, let's I just want people to sign, just sign, just sign, just stop this like top four free agents still not signed.
Well, there is a thing. I'm gonna be very loose about this to not age this podcast, so we'll move right past as quick. But there is a there's like a clerical thing that goes on with rosters where teams can start putting players on sixty man's within I think the next twenty four hours or as this episode is airing, and then what that's gonna do is that theoretically might open up some of the doorways for players to start signing. I don't really think that's something that's kept some of
those guys away. But Jorge Hilaire just signed a three year deal with your San Francisco Giants for four forty two million dollars. I love that signing. I wanted him to go to the Diamondbacks, so we might see those pickups. And that's why this may fall apart. But that's also why this is a bold prediction. This isn't me going, Hey,
Blake Snell's gonna sign with the Mariners. This is me tailing out this little story of he signs the Mariners then take from what they have of depth and they trade and then they get a bigger, probably better piece. They could sign Matt Chapman, but that doesn't make the bold prediction as much fun. And it opened up the junior Camonaro. So that is seven degrees of Blake Snell, where Blake Snell creates junior Cameron Aro having a starting role.
So that's my first bold prediction. Just in bold prediction number two, you're up all right.
So last year I made a bold prediction and actually bet on it and it fell just short. But it was kind of right, just for the wrong reason. That was the Arizona Diamondbacks. We're gonna win the NLS. They didn't win the NLS. They did make it all the way to the World Series. I just missed kind of exactly where I should put my money. So this year I'm gonna do the same thing on a team that I think people are kind of overlooking that I actually kind of really like. Uh, And that's Kansas City Royals
winning the Division, winning the Al Central. I like a lot of the moves they've made that division is pretty weak.
To say the least.
I think that there's a really good chance, like the additions of Waka and Lugo to that rotation.
I mean, there's a great part for them to pitch in.
I really really like the Royals as a team that could kind of sneak up and all of a sudden, uh, look you looking at the top of that division very very quickly.
Yeah.
I mean I think if you're if you're attaching the boldness to the Royals, which is a very bold statement for them to you know, win out that division, there's gonna be some bounce some big bounce backs or breakouts on that team. If you had to pinpoint a player or two, who are the biggest beneficiars, I agree with Waka. I'm I actually tend to be for whatever reason in the rankings on Fantasy Pros, I tend to be a lot higher on like Waka on Seth Lugo because I
think they'll eat innings. But if I were thrown at you, obviously you know Cole Reagan's can make a jump. You got mikel. Garcia, who is if he's gonna be given the go, might steal a lot of bases. If you had to pick two players to be attached to your bold prediction for the Royals that kind of break out, who would you pick?
Give me vinnp Like I he is one of those guys that I think, had it not been for the injury last year, we'd be talking about him as like a top five round draft pick this year. I just think he has all the talent in the world of the ability to make contact power, and he's gonna get full time playing time in Kansas City.
The other one's Michael Massey.
Massy is one of those guys that I was really kind of in on last year, and it just he never seemed to really get going. But if you actually look at the underlying statistics for like the second half of the year, he was really really good under the hood. I think they're gonna give him a chance to play every day he manned up in a platoon if he
can't handle lefties perfectly. But I think he is one of those guys that is gonna go undrafted in ten team leagues, twelve team leagues, that should be on your watch list, or the last guy on your bench on a fifteen team leagues. He's definitely a target for me.
Yeah, and he's a really good like DC type of target, And yeah, he's a solid He's definitely a solid bet there. So there you go. Royals are winning their division. Didn't think we'd say that anytime soon. Probably would also be very much due to Cole Reagan's. Let's just be honest too. If Cole Reagan's is successful, that's going to help that team as well. All Right, my second bold prediction, we're
gonna kind of stay in that rookie realm. First part not as bold, but Jackson Holiday breaks camp with the Orioles and it's a starting day, second basement shortstop. They kind of laid it out if anybody missed the news that they said if he were to break camp with the team, he would be playing probably some combination of second base and shortstop, but more primarily second base. So that might be a bit of news for people. But the second piece of it is, not only does he
break camp, he wins a Rookie of the Year. So the favorite is Evan. You've got Wyatt Langford that's in there, and you've got quite a few interesting names that are dancing around. Junior Camonaro that's another one. There's a lot of competition, but the Orioles are going to be great. It will be one reason due to Jackson Holiday and they will do it again. They're very motivated as well to give these guys the playing time. Trust them. What did they do with Gunner Henderson justin They let him
get through it. They let him work through it and that ended up working out. He at one point was like third or fourth on the Rookie of the Year awards last year on how bad it got. Jackson Holiday is that guy. He hit three twenty three this past year over four forty OBP across. I believe it's the four levels in the miners. The power wasn't quite there, but over one hundred walks. He's a great contact hitter. Big Obp showed off his batting average and the power
is going to come and Gunner won it. What you know, twenty is around twenty five to ten, twenty eight, eleven, whatever it was. If Gunner can go fifteen to eighteen with thirty stolen bases and he steals a little bit more while a high batting average and the Orioles win
the division. Jackson Holliday not only breaks camp but ale Rookie of the year and underrated, by the way, I think, a kind of undervalued draft asset right now, there all the rookies I've been talking about a decent amount justin where it's like, you know, Langford is in like the one forties trios in the one thirties, Caminarow is back quite a bit, but Jackson Holliday is sitting in this like one eighty one to ninety range. I think he's the guy that you can push up a little bit more.
I'm not sure you're on the same path. I don't try you don't try to target too many rookies, of course I don't.
But I'm actually one lockstep with you. The I understand like how good Langford was in the minor leagues last year, But Jackson Jackson Holliday is still the number one prospect of baseball, and he's got the clearest path to playing time. Like I love why at Langford, but like, where does Langford actually play to start the year with Evan Carter
and Adulas Garcia in that outfield? You know, I think Trio is really really interesting prospect, But where does he play in that outfield with Christian Yelledge and Sal freylk like, and I don't think people have talked enough about Tarrio's, like, you know, issues with swing and miss at times in the minor leagues. So I think Jackson Holiday has the clearest path to playing time. There's no one on that
team that is stopping him if he's ready. And the Orioles have shown, unlike a team like the Brewers, that they'll bring up a guy to play day one. They want those draft picks that are associated with finishing high end work of the year. I think this is actually a perfect bold prediction, and I think that this is probably the bold prediction that has the best chance of actually hitting.
Now, if you're like welsh, are we gonna get bolder, We're gonna get bolder. We're gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna get bolder with you, So don't worry. Friends. Want to tell you though about the draft simulator before we move forward to the rest of our bold predictions, because Fantasy Pros Draft Simulator it is a killer tool. You can go in and you can sink your leagues and guess what you can mock to your league's settings. Right now,
go in, sink, put a bunch of mocks, together. You can get analysis if you jump up on premium, but guess what you can do all of that still on the freemium. You can get a bunch of this free access, and if you want to jump up a little bit further, you can get analysis from experts like justin myself. You can get the whole report card after. But all you gotta do is go in, sink your league and start drafting to your own settings today. Sky's a limit with
the draft simulator. Go and use it today, fantasypros dot com slash mock sink your league and get jammin'. Let's go to our bold prediction number. Trace what you got justin.
All right, John Means is the top forty starting pitcher this year. I don't know why people are fading John Means the way they.
Are in draft early drafts so far.
Yes, I know he is, you know, coming off of injury from Tommy john Search, but he pitched last year. Like what I want to see from a guy is that they finish the year on the mound. And he pitched really really well in twenty three and two thirds innings a two C sixty six year. Right, the strikeouts weren't there, but I'm not super worried about that. For me, it's really about him getting back on the mound with a velocity. That park is an absolute palace for left
handed pitchers. You just cannot hit the ball out as a righty. So I think John Means is going to have a fantastic year. I think the strikeouts are going to come back, and I think he is going to be a top forty starting pitcher this year.
Do you think that John Means can canon will be the number two fantasy pitcher for the Orioles.
I think he can. I don't know if he will because I mean I love Grayson Rodriguez.
And Kyle Bradish.
Kyle Bradish, Yeah, yeah so, but I definitely, honestly, I really love the entire Orioles rotation, especially the addition of Burns, Like this is like, this is a really really fun rotation for them. It means probably is the fourth guy, but from a fantasy value, like yeah, I mean, could he surpass guys like Chris and Rodriguez and Bradish?
Sure? Will he?
I don't know, man, I think I think Grayson Rigez could be a top fifteen starter this year.
I was about to say, I mean if you're putting John Means as a top forty sp That means you're gonna have four Orioles pitchers inside the top forties.
I think we're going to do. I mean this, This Orioles team is going to be a juggernaut in years years to come.
Yeah, I mean, and it works well to my like Jackson Holiday teams winning. You know, he's succeeding as long as he obviously is. So I love that bold prediction. All right, number three, Now I'm going bolder if you don't like how bold I've been going. Jared Kelnick with the Atlanta Braves goes twenty twenty five a twenty twenty five season, by the way, third round, third round value, justin Would you say that's about.
Right depending on the batting average?
Yeah, I mean, you know, like that's kind of what we're looking at from Randi Rosarno is going around pick forty eight I think right now. So yeah, that's third, fourth round value depending on his batting average.
So kel Nick last year he hit lefties as well as hitting righties, or I should probably say he hit righties as well as hitting lefties. Solid the second half included right before he got hurt and then like when he returned, he hit two eighty eight and that was better than that first part. He also had been stealing through the first eighty games, stole eleven bases. When he ended up returning, didn't really end up stealing anymore. It finished with thirteen, but he was aggressive in the forefront
of it. Well, here's a couple positives and why Atlanta can boost all this up. Atlanta fourteenth best ballpark factor for lefties versus Seattle, which is the worst of all, and Atlanta was in top ten for stolen bases. I think at the end of the lineup where Kelna currently is according to the roster resource and probably stays, he's going to be running, and I think they're going to want him to do so to get into scoring position,
as Akuna is going to be getting in. He showed off his power again after hitting eleven homers in one hundred and five games. This lineup creates better offensive potential, and we saw that offensive potential growth last year with Kelnick. He punched a cooler. He was dumb about it, but we saw big stolen bases. We saw the resurgence of him, and he now goes to an Atlanta lineup that has better ballpark factors, that is a higher stealing team. And
here's the other thing. Remember when they acquired him, and all the notes out there were, hey, he's gonna platoon with von Grissom. No he's not. This is his job right now. And they could bring somebody else in and screw this up, but this is his job right now to succeed. Jared Kelnick goes twenty twenty five, and that would make him a third to fourth round fantasy option. I think that's bold in the Jared Kelnick world right justin.
Yeah, and I love it.
I mean, if you followed my content at all, whether written or verbal content, Like I have been a Jared Kelnick believer for quite a while, nothing has changed, Like I know that there is a little bit of a hole in a swing, but he made improvements in the second half.
Like you mentioned, I think Kelnick could definitely do this.
Yeah, and hitting lefties I think is like really important for him because there's not like there, at least this past year, there wasn't massive platoon deficiencies, so for him to be able to hit lefties as solid. He has hit for good average before and he hit too eighty eight in that short stint of games, like before he got hurt and when he returns. I think that's a
good positive. And you know he is aggressive runner. When I interviewed him back in there was in a fall league and like whatever it was twenty nineteen, he told me I was asking about goals and he was like, oh, I have goals. Twenty twenty. He's like me and my team. We discussed the goals every single year. Probably some of that has changed, but he was aggressive in wanting to hit those twenty twenty markers. This is the year that he hits the twenty twenty marker. So big on Jared
Kelnick in a good draft day value. All right, bold prediction number four. I kind of led this up to, and I think you and I looking at our list, probably led these up to the two biggest ones that we've got on the list. So number four, which might in tune be number two. Here justin what's your bold prediction?
I think vlad Greer Junior is a top ten fantasy player this year. I know a lot of people are like really down on him after kind of what we consider a disappointing year where he only hit twenty six home runs. But Vladgerer Junior does exactly what I want a fantasy hitter to do when I draft him early in a draft, and that is be a plate appearance hog. Get all the plate appearances. He's had three straight seasons of at least six hundred and eighty two plate appearances.
I think he got unlucky in the babbitt I think he got unlucky the home run to fly ball rate. I think just natural regression will get him to being back to a first round pick. And if he has any babbit pelp, if he has any home run to fly ball help, Like, I think we're talking about a guy that could hit three hundred with forty home runs. And I love Lad Grier Junior. Like, if he's available in the third round in my drafts, he's going to be on all of my teams.
Yeah.
And he's one of those guys that has popped.
You know.
It's interesting because I feel like he's the guy that projection people look at and they're like, what, Like, I don't understand, because let's see trying to find him here on the bat X. The bat X has him for thirty five homers one hundred and three RBI while hitting two ninety one. That is an exponential increase, but it's because he still has all the intangibles, but he does
fall into these bad rhythms. I just did a social short video talking about players that are going to bring the power this year, that are gonna well overperform their power output from the previous year, and Vlad was number one. He is one of those guys because he is a great hitter. But I do think like that there's so much criticism around Vlad because he is kind of he is an analytics and projections darling, yet the production is wavering. Does that sound about right?
Yeah, I think that's fair. But I also I think part of it.
Is like he had just had this prospect type that was unreal, right, Like his rookie year, he was projected to win the batting title of the American League, Like come on, like like he just he was one of the greatest prospects we had seen in a really, really long time. And I think some people are just like, well, he's a bus. What are you talking about. He's a bus. Like he's been amazing these last three years. Yes, last year was a little bit down, but like he's done
everything you want from a young player. He plays the game in a really really fun way too. He's great to root for. Like they're like, I I think people are just overrating a quote unquote down season in.
Which he didn't actually kill you.
Yes, it wasn't what you were looking for as a first round pick last year, but like he was fine, Like you know, and I think he's gonna bounce back huge this year. And I mean obviously with Varshow being on this list and like Greginia being on this list, pretty high in the Blue Jays as well.
Yeah, apparently you are. I remember we were all at the Arizona Fall League that year when vlad was a rookie and I was sitting in the stands. I don't think you were there yet, but it was. I was sitting with Vlad Sedler who was just on the show, Rob Silver, and a couple other people. Oh, and Jason Collette opens up his phone and goes the Steamer projections are out and it was Vladimir Guerrero batting title as a rookie two ninety one batting average projected and everyone
was just in awe of the batting average projection. So it's been it's been pretty hardcore with vladd for a long time, and that was a fun thing. That was a fun thing, all right. Bold prediction number four for me, This is one of my big ones. I've kind of talked a lot about this. Maybe this isn't even that bold, but I'm going to anoint a cy young winner and his name is George Kirby. George Kirby is my bet. I have actually already placed a futures bet on George
Kirby winning this. I love and always have loved the super low walk rates two point five two point five percent this year, top percent tile in the league. The one thing that has always kept him off of it because everything else is like relatively elite. I suppose he's he gave up a little bit more hard hit but low three's era this past year. But the thing that gets everybody focused are the strikeouts. Where are the strikeouts?
Twenty two point seven percent, which by the way, still lands him in the like twenty plus k minus walk percentage range because of the low walks. But what is the thing that's going to change. Well, one thing I think that can change. I definitely think the strikeouts can uptick George Kirby's always been kind of a maniac about
not walking. And what would be ironic, by the way, about Blake Snell being there is Blake Snell's approach is aggressive strikeout approach and using walks as part of his game. He doesn't care like he's just gonna pitch you in a certain way, and if he walks you, he walks you. George Kirby, it destroys him if he ends up walking, he doesn't want that. But I think Kirby can make those improvements. And one of the things is that there's been this uptick in like split finger splitter usage on
that team. I believe Logan Gilbert ended up adding that, and we saw more of an uptick in George Kirby doing that year over year twenty twenty two didn't even throw it one percent jumped up to six percent life last year. I would not be shocked if he uses it more because why would he thirty five plus percent whiff rate on that pitch last year it was the highest whiff rate of any single pitch. So if he upticks that a little bit, gets a little bit more
swing and strike, He's not going to walk anybody. You have a great ballpark that's with you. You can stack on some wins. I think the Mariners are going to do really well this year. I think George Kirby is gonna liign himself with a low era, immensively low walks. He's going to eat innings, he's going to pick up the wins, and he's gonna put himself in line to win a Cy Young this year. And that was actually
something that popped up during the first pitch Arizona. We had this random question when I was on Rates and Barrels, the podcast with Eno and DVR, was like, who is the pitcher that could be number one in all the land and it can't be Garrett Cole or Strider. And I was sitting there and I went George Kirby and collect me and Collett went on this big thing because that was Collette's guy. So I'm not sure what you think about George Kirby as al Cy Young. It's a
tough task to do against Garrett Cole. And obviously, if like Blake Snow went to his own team SIAM Award.
Winner, I mean, I think he's gonna have even more competition than just Blake Snell. If Blake's not all were to sign, they're on his own team. Luis Castillo has been amazing since coming to Seattle, too, and I'd honestly I put money on him winning the cy Young this year as well. So, but Kirby is one of those guys that I love as a well. I don't necessarily think he's gonna win the cy Young like I love as a draft pick because the floor is so safe.
That walk rate makes him so freaking safe, and I think that's gonna be a very good team that's going to a lot of games.
So who do he do it? Absolutely? Will he?
I think I would probably pivot to his teammate Lose Gestio. If I was gonna make a bet on a Maritner.
Give me Jr. Everybody knows I'm obsessed with George Kirby. I might be just super obsessed with like those low variance pitchers. I know he's not gonna walk a bunch. He does need to uptick the strikeouts a little bit more, But we're one or two things going his direction where he becomes one of the best pitchers in baseball. And I hope that it gets there because I'm betting than he is. Cy Young. We got our final Bold prediction coming up. I mentioned earlier the draft simulator. Let me
tell you guys about the Draft Assistant. It is probably I mean, I hate to do it because there's a bunch of amazing tools and everybody may may feel differently, but the Draft Assistant might be like the best tool that's out there. You can connect Draft Assistant to your draft and get real time suggestions like expert ranks, team needs, positions scarcity while you're drafting in your live draft wherever
it is, because you have sinked your league. Get the most value out of every pick in your Fantasy Baseball draft this year using Draft Assistant, And like I said, after it's all done, the Draft Assistant can go and tell you all the cool insights about the people that liked it, the people that didn't like it, where you're winning categories and more. Go to fantasypros dot com slash Assistant and get locked in today. Sink your leagues and unlock the powers of Fantasy Pros. All right, this is
our final final bold prediction. I think I don't know which one is going to be bigger, because you've decided to go negative and I'm gonna go positive. So justin kick it off with a little bit of negative and all finishes out on the positive side.
You know, this may be my least bold prediction. I probably should have started off the show. I think some people are gonna be yelling at me on their podcast player because they don't believe it. But if I told you Tyler Glass now has never been a top thirty starting pitcher in baseball and then that will continue to happen even being on the Dodgers, would you believe me?
You know, Like immediately I realize, like, well, I'm like, I know, he didn't do the innings, but even though he didn't do the innings, I'm actually I am surprised. He's never been a top Is that real? He's never been an SP thirty.
Last year was.
The most amount of innings he threw in the major leagues in once he'son one hundred and twenty. He was the forty first starting pitcher. You can't be a top tier starting pitcher in fantasy if you don't get innings, and Tyler Glass Now has never never gotten above one hundred and twenty innings at the major league level. They're gonna run a six me on rotation they're gonna really protect him now he's on a long term deal and he gets hurt. He just gets hurt all the time.
I love him on a paranning basis. I totally understand Shalli Lee players in eight and ten teen leagues getting him because you can backfill off the I you know, or off the waiver while I've put him on the iel. But he is not an elite starting pitcher because it
can't stay healthy. Maybe this is just a Dodger hate, but no, I've hated Tyler Glassnow for a long time, way before he was with the with the Dodgers, and I'm gonna continue to kind of say this over and over and over again until he proves that he can go one hundred and fifty innings. Tyler glassa is not a top thirty pitcher in fantasy.
You absolutely know. Like in the comments people are like, oh yeah, Giants fan. Second, I'll actually just yeah.
Go ahead, if you know, if you've listened to me before, I have been saying this for years, Like I understand why people get so hyped on him because on a paranning basis, he is fantastic, but like you have to be able to throw innings. I know it's not as important as it used to be because we don't have a million guys throwing two hundred innings anymore.
But like, you have to be able to get tow.
One hundred and forty hundred beginnings to have real impact and fantasy. Otherwise, like you're just selling yourself short. And he's going way, way too high.
I was just at camp too, By the way, he just really does look like Killian Murphy. I always thought it was Sillian Murphy, by the way, but apparently it's Killian.
Why.
I don't know why. I only learned that for Oppenheimer and didn't learn that in his best movie twenty eight days later, but I learned it was Killian.
He really does it Binders.
Yeah, Peak Blinds is incredible, by the way, But I felt tempted to say that to the glass now. But let's not be that person. I tend to love glass now, but I love the potential. But you're right, he is scary. He's risky real quick. Do you have him ranked outside of the top twenty.
Oh yeah, he's outside my top twenty five, probably thirty. I like, I honestly like, I said, this isn't that bold. He does not deserve to be that high, like you the Oppenheimer, Like I get like, I get that people, And I mean i've seen him inside of people's top ten starting pictures, right Like, people, they're gonna be a lot, and they're gonna be some people who have him as a top five guy for something. But when you one of the things I started doing last year was like
full projections. I do my own full projections and then I run it through draft software, right, And what you find when you do that that is that innings are so important because innings allow your good ratios to count. More innings allow you to get more strikeouts. Right, Like, you know, I don't care what your strikeout or k per nine is if you're throwing one hundred and twenty innings, and I got another guy who's throwing.
One hundred and ninety, one hundred and ninety's.
Gonna win unless the guy is just devoid of striking people out.
So uh, it just the volume matters in fantasy.
And to your point, you know, I've made this case and and I do stand to it that like one is the new one forty and one thirty five is the new one sixty and So what do I mean by that. I'm just saying like we've always wait, we wait the innings, and one twenties always sound centa bad, but like nobody pitches two hundred anymore, and there's just so fewer, so you can move the bar up of what if you get one hundred and fifty out of a pitcher that's equivalent to like one eighty, and that's
actually pretty good in fantasy. But here's the problem, and this is what go back, goes back to your side. A guy that gets one ninety is in almost the elite category of innings right now. So if you can get comparable like strikeouts in a similar range, and you know, comparable production but over one hundred and ninety innings versus what you're seeing in Glass now, it's not close. Like if someone's drinking glass now top five, I would take Tyler Glass now, or I would take Zach Gallon today,
tomorrow and for the next three years before. I would take Glass now, because you know, you get the innings. Strikeouts are still gonna be around nine k per nine. You're gonna get wins and stuff like that. Like the chasing of strikeouts is a little over barren but there you go. Not top three pitcher. I'm sticking with SPS and I'm dying to hear what you have to say about this one. Justin because my final bold prediction is one of my favorite players. I got a couple players
that I'm drafting in all the leagues. This one I am the highest on Fantasy Pros consensus ranks. Nobody has him higher than me, at least not yet. Someone might fix it. It is Michael King, because Michael King will be this year's Pablo Lopez. Michael King in twenty twenty three had a twenty nine plus percent K percentage to go along with a seven percent walk rate. That's great. Two
point seventy five ERA also great. Expected rare three point four was pretty solid, but in seven starts because he was a reliever and a starter, he had only one outing that he gave up more than a single run. As a starter, his ERA was better than a reliever. It was two point two to three. He also walked less as a starter. His K minus walk percentage is a reliever was nineteen point eight percent, so that is
the walks taking away from his strikeouts. So the lower than number of the word blah blah blah as a starter. So remember nineteen point eight as a reliever. As a starter, twenty five point eight, that is elite when you get into that number. A lot of these. I mean, I told you George Kirbys is around twenty. So the reason I use the Lopez is there's actually a lot of usage similarities. Both utilized fastball, sweeper change up as kind
of the top predominant ones pitches that they use. King ends up using a little bit like the sinker fastball kind of flows in and out. Pablo four seam but also uses the sinker fastball runs similarly as far as Vlo goes. Pablo gets a little bit more whiffs, but Kings slower sweeper induces more whiffs as does his change up.
I think the Padres are going to push. Those innings that we talked about are so valuable ATC if you want to use projections has him as a three four to eight ERA and a one hundred and thirty four innings and almost a twenty eight percent K percentage player. I think he can push over one fifty. He gets his wins, that sweeper keeps utilizing, and it's no shock that play. Your similarities using Baseball Savant Pablo Lopez is the number one comp for right handed pitchers to Michael King. I'm
all in on Michael King. There's a lot to be desired as far as what he's done as a starter, but we've seen it fly. People are making bets on Triik's scouble in short usage, Cole Reagan's in short usage, yet almost around two hundred on eighty p's and NFBC for Michael King. To me, he is this year's Pablo Lopez justin and he killing me on that one.
I think the only knock on Michael King is what is his innings total going to be? We just talked about glass down not being a top thirty started because I don't trust the innings.
Michael King only threw.
He threw a less one hundred and ten last year, and part of that, like you said, was because he was in relief. Now, I don't think they need to baby Michael King quite as much as maybe another guy who would have a big jump in innings. But I just can't see him like getting up to one sixty. I think that one thirty five one forty area is probably top of the line, which I think limits his upside that being said, everything else you said is spot on, and I think he could do a lot of damage.
And unlike Tyler Glassnaw, who we might project for one hundred and thirty innings, Michael King's going super low. You just said like pick two hundred. I'll take that all day long. The one thing I've really learned in this podcast is I don't want to play any leagues with the Welsh because we're gonna be targeting a lot of guys.
It's gonna be a nightmare, So we don't want to do any like NFPCS together. Justin Mason FWFB on the twitters, what do you got going on right now? Which Appe'll be on the lookout for. You just mentioned we got a great article another premium artcle coming up here on Fantasy Pros. What else is going on in your world?
Yeah? I mean I'm right now.
I'm writing five days a week at Fangrafts and three to five days a week at Fantasy Pros. I've got the Friends of Fancy Benefits podcast and the Sleeproom the Bus podcast going on. TGFBI is about to start. Pot of PALOOZAUS coming up in just under two weeks, which is two days live striap event to raise money for charity.
If you can get into TGFI Satellite TGFBI is for content creators right, but if you're not a content creator, you want to try to get in, you can inter a satellite league and win your way in next year. So you can go to TGFBI dot com in site up for a satellite league.
Killer stuff, my friend, I'm looking forward to it. I'm getting back into TGFBI. I'll be doing it. Make sure you check out all his great content here for free and on the premium side. You can find me on Twitter at isit the Welsh where you can also find my ranks. You can find Dynasty, I got prospect here. My redraft are updated. I'm on the ECR if you're checking it out. Plus, I have got probably as this
is airing, I've got my Draft day targets. Wonder if you'll see any of the guys we talked about on there. It's a premium article. Oh you gotta do. Go check out Fantasy Pros. They've got tons and tons of free stuff that you can get hooked up with. Just sink
your league. You can start accessing in the simulator. You can work with some of the other tools, and if you like it and you want more, you can upgrade, get the premium, you can get in to the discords we've got, you can get access to the premium articles, download the app, and it's easy peasy, my friends. Lemon squeeze. That's all that we got for you here today. Justin please tell Sport I love him. Sleeper and the Bus the mainstay in the industry, and you guys, you guys
are all phenomenal. Thank you so much for hanging out Bold Predictions for twenty twenty four. We'll review and we'll see and we'll talk to you next time right here on Fantasy Pros. Bye, friends,