Welcome in everybody to Fantasy pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
This is Joe Pisapia here with me as always is the Welsh, and it's time to take.
A look at some draft day bargains.
We've got twelve names for you that we think are just priced right for you to get the most Fantasy baseball goodness out of.
In twenty twenty four.
Before we get to those names, Welsh, we did have a signing finally, after what seems like the most eternally long offseason ever for certain guys, including Blake SNeW who now finds himself on the San Francisco Giants. He joins Logan Webb at the top of that rotation. So before we dive into some bargain hunting, this is I think a must sign kind of for the Giants. They desperately needed somebody else there with Webb, Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks and Keaton Win right now, those are the back end
starters for this rotation. But let's talk about Blake snell two year deal. There is an opt out, but certainly a great win for the Giants, escially because didn't have to commit a very long term contract to it.
Yeah, and that's what they've been doing.
They've been not committing these big long term contracts to be competitive in this division where the Dodgers or powerhouses.
You know, the Podgers.
Made some interesting moves, but they've been a little flatlined until the Dylan C's trade Diamondbacks. Obviously, World Series, you want to stay competitive. This is a great way to do it. And they're setting themselves up where you've got a one two punch of Web and Snell for the foreseeable future if healthy on the back end, and they were to make a playoff run, they got Robbie Ray. So this is a big l for Scott Boris and
the money. At least Snell did get, you know, a thirty million dollars deal per year, and it looks like he's going to be able to have his opt outs. But what is so fascinating is we were out the precipice. We were about to explode where we were going to say we can't draft Blake Snell. It was already getting there. We can't do it, we can't do it. But then we find out.
Not a current ADP. We couldn't, but well, the.
ADP was high, it was in the sixties, but then over the last week on NFBC had been moving down into the eighties. That's what I'm saying, three or four days from it moving down into like post one, you know, fifty or something like that. But we got the word a couple days ago that he did pitch a full four inning simulated game, which kind of shows how he's
been ramping up. I think there's a decent possibility that the ramp up is going to be minimal and maybe he misses just like a game or two, or they just skip in the rotation. This is a great destination and I think we can be a little bit optimistic, and hopefully not sure we will, but hopefully we can take the discount on Snell if you're in the Snell market, because he's a little polarizing.
He is.
Boy, what a great division to Arizona go into a World Series last year the Juggernaut Dodgers. Now the Giants kind of Hey, I was saying, hey, we're gonna be competitive in this thing too, and they were busy this offseason. They went out there and they signed sol Air, Junghu Lee, Matt Chapman. So the Giants are making moves out there, which is good. You want teams to be spending money
on players, not just pocketing it. So that's a good thing, good environment for Blake Snell, and still where he's got to go out there and performance on some seven deal where we can just kind of rest on the laurels. So let's get into some of the draft day bargains everybody we're talking about.
These are players.
Going from somewhere between one hundred to two hundred and ADP overall consensus, which you can find at fantasypros dot com. Of course on our rankings page for MLB. You can also find the draftkit on there, which is free, so you could check.
That out also.
So Welsh, why don't you kick things off with a guy? And you got to the show sheet first? This was the first guy I was gonna run to, really, and you put him in the show sheet? So turn about is fair play?
My friend, Ah, I did not know that this was gonna happen.
That's a great thing to hear, by the way, you know, differentiating a lot of the different topics we've talked about, and this is, you know, a brand new one of draft day bargains. It lives in the same general family as you know, the breakouts and the sleepers and stuff like that. But the identification here clearly is like, these guys are really good deals at what they do. Upside is I'm not really sure, but where they're going just doesn't quite make sense to what they produce. And that
player that jumps out to me is katel Marte. No homerism attached. Put it aside here. I know my a Diamondbacks fan, but katel Marte last season two seventy six average, twenty five homers, ninety four runs, eighty two RBI, and eight stolen bases. Projections have him in the twenty homers again, have him near the ten stolen bases anywhere from the high eighties on. Really both the run and RBI numbers,
everything is still in play. After low strikeout numbers, he had a double digit walk rate and his actual hitting profile. He increased his hard hit percentage this past year. He increased year over year his barrel percentage, his expected batting average. His expected numbers were within a general space of where it needs to be. And one thing Katel has always done, he actually did at the highest degree. He always is one of those guys that is one of the hardest
hit balls in baseball. Every single season, you're going to find the leader board for the max EV top ten. Katel's going to get in there, but his average EV they could and sometimes kind of float around, Like here's an example in twenty eighteen with the Diamondbacks. He had a one fifteen point one MaxV but an eighty eight average. So the average hits well. Last year was tied for a career high of ninety one point one. So she's
been making better contact, finding some comfort in stealing. Maybe the Diamonbacks are gonna want to steal a little bit more. But the big important thing here is the low ADP. It pushes near outside the top one hundred, and when you look at the scope of the second basement that are out there. I'm not saying you don't take Azzi Albi's to take katl Marte, but the line between Ozzi Albi's atka tell Marte, especially considering the ADP value, is.
Something to pay attention to. And not all positions have this.
I've said that, like, I don't think I personally don't think third base has that close of a line. I don't think first base necessarily has that line, outfield shortan. You know they can all do that second base. There are some good depthy options and Katel Marte I think is one of the best draft day bargains.
I could not agree more.
This was again the first guy that came into my mind when we were talking about this topic. And so you could take Welsh's homerism even if he had it for Marte off the table because I'm co sunning this as well.
You mentioned that pivot. If you don't get Simmy, you don't get Albi's. This is the pivot.
I mean, what a fantastic guy right around one hundred. Speaking of guys going around one hundred, at one oh three, says Azuki, who I actually just drafted in our last mock draft, and after I took him, I was like, you know, why don't I have more shares of this guy? And last year, going into the season, I was a little bit skeptical even as rookie year, I was somebody saying, look, let's pump the brakes, let's see what this guy is. He was pretty good in twenty twenty two. I wouldn't
say he was great. Two sixty batting average, fourteen homers and only played one hundred and eleven games. He missed some time with injury. Last year, he missed some time with injury two but one hundred and thirty eight games. He saw the power develop a little bit more twenty homers for him, the batting average jump twenty points over a longer period of time. You'll love to see the growth there. You see the walk rate is around ten percent.
That's really solid. And would you consider Welsh That outfield is so problematic and you're looking for a guy with decent value. I'm looking at the project right now. He's gonna hit in the two hole in this order, in front of Cody Bellinger, behind me and half. That's a really good spot to be a good favorable home ball park. Seventy seven runs, twenty two homers, seventy five ribies, nine steals.
That feels pretty good.
Now, have him been a two seventy batting average, even if he just kind of matches this at adp of one oho three, I think that's a really good value. But if you add in the possibility that that run total if the Cubs do what I think the Cubs are capable of doing, which is not only competing but
maybe winning this division. You're only gonna run total over the ninety mark if he hits that, If he gets from twenty two and runs to maybe squeaks out twenty five, if he can get that stolen base total into double digits and maybe maintain that two to eighty batting average, it's gonna be a really special player at this return. And I think as an outfielder three slash four, you could do a lot worse than say a Suzuki. And
I again, I think he just gets passed over. You know, he's a guy we kind of take for grinting a little bit, and I don't think we should. Well, she's the next guy on your list in terms of draft day bargains.
Yeah, I just want to throw out, like I try to get my shares of Suzuki, I just cannot forget them.
I want them.
He's like a chasing amey, Like I'm always chasing Suzuki and I can't quite get to him.
That's one of the lesser Kevin Smith movies, Chasing It's coming out. Let's see that one. It used to be on IFC a lot and then they pulled it.
Sequel coming out in Fall. You're gonna love it. But I agree because it.
Hit with a fourth Clerks movie. How many Clerks movies do we have?
Now we have two? We have two too many. We were good with just one.
So all right, but number two I'm actually gonna stick in the outfield and I'm gonna go with Taoscar Hernandez. Taoscar Hernandez with an ADP average of one oh eight. Not one site has him inside the top one hundred. As a matter of fact, even ESPN has got him around one forty nine, so almost one fifty. Now why ta Oscar Hernandez. Well, you're getting him out of the bad ballpark in Seattle where he still hit twenty six ommers last year ninety three RBIs with a two to
fifty eight batting average. His batting average is sunk the last three years, but we haven't dipped under two fifty and we had bad ballpark factors. Really, frankly, if you're looking at like even like Toronto to Seattle and now you're going to the Dodgers where it's better. But also the offense, that's the big major focus is what this offense is going to be. You've got a guy forty nine point four percent hard hit rate, this past season, he sits between forty eight and fifty two, so big
hard hit numbers. He gets the ball in the air, he hits the ball hard thirteen point eight percent barrel percentage. Those are hitting metrics that we love. Those go along with sustainable expected stats. His expected batting average was actually the exact same number as his batting average. And at the end of the day, you give me a power bat like that in a better ballpark, on a better team, that's going to turn the lineup over more. He's going
to have more opportunity that could move him up the lineup. Now, sure this lineup is so good, he could be hitting six or seven, but the RBI opportunities are going to be there. If you want to look at some of the projection systems, ATC has twenty six homers two sixty one with seven stolen bases. The bat X twenty nine homers, ten stolen bases, eighty plus on the run RBIs with a two to sixty eight batting average. I think he is crossing thirty good shot at thirty five homers this year,
and he's going outside the top one hundred. Outfield can get kind of pretty quick. It can get away from you. But Taoscar Hernandez, even in a three outfielder league, I think is a prime target. In a three outfielder league, if you can already have two guys, he's your third. In a five outfielder league, even more priority because that power back. The value of the really the four categories
with a little sprinkle of stolen bases is immense. In one of the best lineups in baseball, Taskar Hernandez a definite draft day bargain.
His career high one hundred and sixteen RBI back in twenty twenty one, Welsh, I think he could match that. I think he can go over one hundred this year in this Dodger lineup if everyone stays healthy and this Dodger.
Lineup does what it's supposed to do.
And you mentioned about like that outfield cliff that we always talk about.
If you're in a five active outfielder.
League, you have to be looking around this range here we mentioned Suzuki mentioned Hernandez. I've got another one on my list here, Lane Thomas, who you know, everyone's just yelling about regression, yelling about regression, even if he regresses. I keep coming back to the same thing and I know I've mentioned him on other shows before, but I want to drive this home.
At eightp of one oh nine.
The projections right now, twenty two homers, eighty one run scored, seventy three rbi, fifteen steels, two fifty batting average. So you're giving me twenty fifteen. Okay, last year it was twenty eight twenty. That was absurdly good. I keep saying. If we just looked at the numbers and took away Lane Thomas, took away the fact he plays for the Nationals, we'd be talking about this guy as a third round pick. But instead we're talking about him at eightp of one
oh nine. Why because he plays for the Nationals. Because people don't believe him. In twenty twenty two, again he only hit two forty, but he still had the seventeen homers and eight stone bases. You saw the jump forward this past season, and I am buying in to Lane Thomas again. It doesn't cost you a lot here for that baseline, and the projections of that baseline I think are very fair, and you already know that he's good enough to go above them because he just did it
last year. So is he a perfect guy?
Know?
Still heading towards the top of that order. I know, the three twenty five babbit, you know, inflated the average of two sixty eight a little bit.
I get that, but.
At the same time, I still think this is a player with power and speed that can really help you in those rotal formats and again a value in the outfield. Before we get to the next guys on our list too, I just want to remind everybody this is that time
where most of you've done your drafts already. So if you haven't already sink your leagues, if you missed out on the draft season opportunity, there's still plenty of time sink your leagues for free over our Fantasy Pros and use the tools and use my playbook, because my playbook is going to give you that personalized league dashboard for all your leagues I mentioned.
I could set all your lineups there. For premium members too.
You can do all kinds of amazing things with like analysis, projected stats, waiver wire, ad drops, all these incredible things. But basically, what the MLB my playbook gives you is custom news, custom brankings, custom analysis, and it gives you all that ability to control all your teams in one spot, which I gotta say, like that is the biggest time suck ever when you're in multiple leagues. I've on this platform. I got two leagues on that platform, three leagues on that platform.
It's crazy.
You know what, Bob, his oldest top bagman, has told me to our dear friend Bagman that he is now in a space where he will only play if it's on one league. He's like, I only want to play on this platform because he doesn't want to move. Well, my playbook fixes that because now you can go and play on all the platforms and change it in one spot, which that's all that anybody really wants.
Go check it out yourself.
Fantasybros dot com, slash MLB My Playbook or just download the MLB My Playbook app and sink your leagues for free and see what we're talking about.
Because this is going to save you time.
It's going to give you the right answers to setting your lineup, to analyzing trades, to making waiverire pickups. You could see all the free agents in every single league that you're in and then just go and add them. It's crazy.
Good check it out today.
Welsh let's check out the next guy on your list for bargains in twenty twenty four.
Yeah, you know, it's funny.
Bargains definitely can have a feel kind of boring, and I think this guy might have a boring feel. But the whole the reason behind that again is like they're just such good value at where they're going. One of these guys we've talked about, they haven't moved a whole bunch of value. And this is another one of those that has shown up in different episodes. The guy I'm going to give you uh has an ADP right around
one thirty, and it's Josh Naylor. Josh Naylor with the Guardians, who last year put up some absurd RBI numbers in one hundred and twenty one games, ninety seven RBI, he had double digit stolen bases, seventeen homers again one hundred and twenty one games. He also hit over three hundred. This spring, he's over three hundred again. He's not striking out. He's even stolen a couple more bases. The hitting profile of Nayler is solid. Expected batting average supports his really
good batting average. It was a two to ninety three last year, which was in the upper echelon of the league.
Again, the barrel percentage of solid.
He gets the ball in the air, he hits the ball hard, he hits in the middle of the order. Projections love him because of the high batting average, and that is something that gets away from us. So I mean two things we could pretty easily identify what gets away from us in drafts from a hitting perspective, the outfield position and batting average. And Josh Naylor he devoids that. The power potential might not be like what we've talked about with ti Oscar Hernandez, but I think the floors
in the twenties, the ceiling is around thirty. He's gonna have a prime RBI spot because there's a lot of guys that run in front of him. That team does score a lot of runs, and he even sneakily steals some bases. So here's what I love about Josh Naylor. You screw up on first base. He's great. He's not a big power bat, but he's great. What he also does is he allows you to go a little bit more power later. Maybe you want to snag a Jorges
Silaire and then in corner infield. You want to get a Reese Hoskins boom.
But guess what.
Also, let's say you go early first base, go to Pete Alonzo, who I think you should take with elite power. Little question on batting average. Guess what you can swoop in post one hundred. Get a corner infielder in Josh Naylor who supports really high batting average, good RBI numbers, sneaky stolen bases. There's at least three categories in there. Josh Naylor is a draft day bargain for show.
Sick of me be talking about Josh Nayler, So I'm only going to say this. You mentioned maybe the powers behind a little bit. He slugged four eighty nine last year in one hundred and twenty one games. I know it only equivalated to seventeen homers, but I know extrapolations a little dangerous. But if you just pushed that number just a little bit, twenty two to twenty five is not out of the question here. He's didn't clean up in this lineup. As you mentioned, Jimenez, Kwan and Ramirez
all ahead of him. There's gonna be plenty of RBI opportunities. There were plenty. Last year he drove in ninety plus runs. Already, I'm telling.
You I am in. I'm all in, especially if you get him as your corner guy.
Man, I love Naylor. He gives you a batting average more pop than you might realize.
Also, I want to give you credit. You created a Welsh's in there. You said equivalated. Yeah, I think you created a new word.
You quick related the equivalations my friends, my friends come here, you comfort the baseball, you stay for the equivalations.
We equivolated Josh Naylor to be he meant to say equivalent. I know, No, it was a great word. It was a great word that I just wanted to be highlights. That's something I would do and it would go in the Welsh book.
That is a d This is what happens when you spend too much time with the Welsh.
Eventually you start to sound like him, and before I know I'll be wearing baseball caps on every show.
All right.
Number three on my list here going through the next one is Andre's Munos, the closer for the Seattle Mariners. We talked recently Welsh about having your plan and how you want to approach relief pitcher. If you have mandatory RP slots, it changes the dynamic a little bit. If you don't, I still like playing the waiver wire. I like to wait and let the market come to me a little bit. This is exactly where I like the market to come because I feel like Munios has that chance to jump a tier.
He's going at one eleven overall.
Last year ninety six strike excuse me, two years ago, ninety six strikeouts and sixty five innings. Last year sixty seven strikeouts and fort nine innings. Right, So this is a player that you know the strikeout's going to be there so far the last two years, both the eras under three. So he has dominant type stuff.
He has the job.
It's a terrific team that's going to give him a ton of save opportunities because this is a tremendous pitching staff. This is not like some half assed taf we we're talking about like some premium guys. George Kirby could win a saw young according to Welsh, and he might not be wrong here. I actually put some money on it a little bit just in case he is right that way. I'm making some money on what Welsh says. But you've got Gilbert, You've got Kirby, You've got Luis Castillo at
the top of this rotation. You got Bryce Miller and Brian wu at the backhand. It feels like every day there's a chance for a quality start and a chance to get the ball into Munoz's hand to get a safe.
He could save forty games this year.
And I know, like saves can be tricky in terms of, you know, it's hard to gauge exactly whether it's gonna be.
But usually the perfect storm for saves.
Is a good offense, not a great offense, and a really good pitching staff. And I feel like Seattle kind of encapsulates that. Right they got the one big star guy in Julio. The rest of the offense is good. There's still a big bad away from being with the
big boys, but that pitching staff is very good. They're gonna be in a lot of games where I think they're gonna have leads because of the pitching staff, but not blowing teams out on a daily basis because they don't have a juggernaut line up has Otani and Betts and Freeman in it. So I'm looking at Munos and I'm saying, yeah, this is exactly where I want to be taking this guy. To me, this is the sweet spot of closers. Evan Phillips is in there, Munjos is
in there right. It's that group of guys that I like to target. So Munyos to me, he gives you everything you're looking for in terms of the strikeout upside. You know it's going to be there. You know the safe opportunities are going to be there too. He saved just thirteen games last year and forty one in things, but again, he'd have the job.
The whole time this year.
It could be a big difference in terms of what that safe total might be. But also, I was so hyped about this guy last year. I'm just doubling down because I know how good he can be.
So Welsh.
I don't know about you, but this is to me the sweet spot where Phillips Munos. I like those two guys, but Munhos especially too, because I think he still will go cheaper than Phillips every single time.
Phillips is my guy, but I like Munos more.
With the Matt Brash injury, because Matt Brash one of the best pitches in baseball, and that's sweeper slider. But that injury set him back a little bit, and I think that's just more of a reason to not take Munios out of it, especially if it's something nursing all year.
So I like it. But I'm a Phillips guy, but I don't hate your mind.
I like Phillips too, but I still say, in most drafts, you're gonna Phillips because he's a Dodger. He's gonna go ahead and maybe Munios you get ten picks later. But that's almost like the warning signal that goes up or you go, oh boom, there's Phillips.
Okay, I like your logic.
I want to point out I liked your logic of like, these are great pictures that can go six or seven. This is an offense that might not blow any teams out. They could be playing a ton of close games because the pitching staff is going to keep them in. The offense is fine, and there might be a lot of save opportunities. So I like that logic.
All right, let's get back to you here because you've got a picture as well. Actually two more pictures to talk about, so let's get to this first one here, who's on your draft, Dave Bargain.
Listen the on the mound.
Well, we're gonna stay with the Guardians. And again the boring is gonna kind of show itself here, but that's okay because we're gonna just take bargains.
This guy have been very critical of.
But we've seen a huge positive sign in spring and that is VLO increase. And we're talking about Shane Bieber, who, by the way, has an ADP right next to Naylor. It's one twenty six on average, but again it floats around. He goes as low as like one sixty in NFBC, in the early one CBS around one thirty three. And the thing about Bieber's he's gonna eat innings. We know that last year he started walking a little bit more.
The strikeout numbers they took this really really increased a heavy decrease overall in velocity over the last two seasons, averaging ninety one point three both seasons. But he's up to ninety four on average in spring. Again, that's the sweet sauce. That's the thing that we needed. Even in twenty twenty two, when the VELO decrease started, you still have the slider and the knuckle curve with a forty
percent whiff rate. All of those everything dramatically dropped last year, but we're back with increased ve low and I think that is a great sign for Shane Bieber because Bieber is going to eat innings. He is the guy they're going to put out there as much. Twenty two he had one hundred and I had two hundred innings last year due to injuries set him back.
He's still twenty eight years old.
Also think if the Guardians get out of it, Bieber is a prime trade candidate and he's a guy that is going to frontline a rotation.
I think the fall of Biaber in his.
Value is why we've got to target him now because we're taking risks earlier in our drafts. We're taking the trek Scoobles, we're taking the Tyler Glass now, so those guys could lose innings. We love Dodger pitchers, Bobby Miller. How many innings can he get? We're dealing with the world where pitching innings don't really exist at the same clip that they did.
In the past.
So if you can find this is something I've been preaching, If you can find some boring pitchers that can get you two hundred innings, they're going to walk themselves into some good stats. Bieber might be boring, but he's on the uptick back with that fastball. He can get two hundred innings easy, and I think he is a main target. He's a main target pretty much. Anytime I can SP four every time four SP five, doesn't really matter. If I have a boring rotation, I have one where I
had like Yamamoto and Caribe. I know that there's some sexiness in that, but like you know, it's kind of got a floor. I'll play floor rotations or scary rotations. Bieber belongs in both.
Only five guys through two hundred innings last year. Just to put that kind of in perspective, if you go back to let's say twenty thirteen, that's just ten years ago. We else you want to guess what that number was.
Oh gosh, yeah, it was probably how many years ago? Thirteen?
Ten years ago?
Oh, I'm going to say it's like thirteen guys thirty four okay.
Whoops, and another let's see, looks like another fifteen through one hundred and ninety or more so, saying baseball.
Very different years.
It's a very different game from pitching, and that's why he's kind of a throwback player, and I love the idea of a throwback player reincreasing some of their offerings. And that's why you know, Bieber in outside the top one hundred, it's a great value.
Even five years ago twenty eighteen, you still had twelve guys go over two hundred innings, and looking around this over one ninety twenty four.
Guys, so not bad, I go, that's still kind of decent.
So the change from ten years ago to five years ago to last year, the specialization is tough, and finding guys who can go all the way into that one eighty range even is getting harder and harder to find.
All Right.
The next gut on this list is another one that I just continue to see as a huge value. I'm gonna try to guess many shares as I possibly can with my remaining drafts, but I don't have any yet. There's a keeper home league that I'm in that he's already being kept, so I'm already out of that business there. But Zach Geloff to me, I can keep looking at what this kid accomplished last year, and what's so stunning to me was what he did in the minor league
is exactly what did the major leagues. He hit for a decent average. He gave you power, he gave you speed. Last year sixty nine games for him, fourteen homers, fourteen steals. I don't know what more you need him to prove. He is basically a twenty twenty guys sitting out there at adp of one thirty nine at second base. We talked about second base being difficult. We talked about the pivot points of Marte. Right, Well, if you miss out on Marte, then what do you do?
Right? That was my backup plan.
Well, I can't get Albe's, I can't get Simeon all right, Well Marte's there?
Ooh no, that hurt.
He went off the board. So what do you do? Giloff's right there. And the reason why he's floating at one thirty nine, folks, is very simple. He plays in Oakland.
That's it. It's the only thing.
At this point that I can understand of why he's still floating around here. We hype out so many of these other prospects all the time of what they can do, and yet they haven't had nearly the amount of exposure at the major league level that Geiloff had last year, So just under seventy games again fourteen, fourteen, two sixty seven. He's still gonna hit the top of this order. He is still gonna give you power, he's gonna give you speed. In salary cap drafts, he is a tremendous value, especially
in rudeo format. So I'm just saying like, this is one of these players that's really floating under the radar. Look for some players on bad teams, even though they're bad teams, they're still gonna score some runs. And I think Oakland is going to be a little bit better than it was last year.
Is really nowhere to go but up.
But I gotta tell you, this is the one player too that I keep circling that if he was playing for the Boston Red Sox, if he was playing for the Chicago Cubs, if he was playing for any New York team or Los Angeles team, we'd be talking a lot more about Zach Gaeloff. But instead he plays for the A's, so nobody's talking about him, and to me, it makes him an enormous bargain because I don't think twenty twenty is off the table.
For him at all.
And you can also argue in a middle infield spot, he's probably gonna hit for a better average and give you twenty twenty, just like Volpi will, but the better batting average will be a Gelloff most likely. So Wels, I don't know how you feel about Kailoff, and you get to see a lot of these guys out there on the West Coast too. Is Gealoff somebody that you've been targeting in drafts?
Yeah, actually just got him in a keeper league, as is this dispersal ly draft.
Type of thing.
What I like about him is a twenty twenty potential. What I don't like about him is he's in Oakland, Vegas soon and you know, some of the bad ball skills stuff. It's a little bit of concern. There are big strikeout warries.
But what I will tell you said something in interesting like.
If he was in a big market team, we'd be talking about him. It's kind of similar to Anthony Volpi. There's a vulpiness to him. Volpi has got some swing and mission issues. I think Galoff has bigger strikeout worries than Volpi does, but they both got some of those concerns. Vulpi is moving up in a lot of ways. We're not seeing that with Gealoff.
I think it's a great target.
I think it's a you know, draft d a bargain. I will say this because he's not on like.
A Cardinals or something like that.
He's not getting the buzz He would be a top one hundred buzzy type of player. But I won't be shocked when he goes twenty twenty.
Look in twenty twenty two his double See I always go to the double A numbers because especially those West Coast guys, when they you know, you play in PCL, things get inflated. So I'm not even talking about like the triple A numbers in twenty twenty three, which were terrific, the three oh four, four oh one, five toway nine slash that was terrific. Talking about double A. Eighty seven games in double A in twenty twenty two. Guess what thirteen homers, nine steals, hit two seventy one ops around
eight hundred, like right on that precipice there. To me, this is exactly like this is who he is. He goes, I got a little bit. Yeah, that's probably true. I think he's a better roto player than a points ly player, possibly especially, but I think the volume hitting in the two hole in this order could possibly make up for any of those.
Strikeout deficits when it comes to Gelloff. All right, let's get another guy on your list.
You've got another picture, another one of my favorite guys I talk about all the time, who is absolutely dominating spring training right now, So let's talk about him.
Welsh.
Yeah, we're talking about Chota Monica, who has just been lights out in spring with the Cubs. Nineteen strikeouts so far and what is it, nine and two thirds pitch He's only walked a few. We know that the fastball has been an absolutely dominant pitch for Showa WBC stuff plus numbers were absolutely through the roof.
He's deceptive in.
His delivery, he's explosive on the release. Justin Steele talked up crazy on him. We've seen the results through spring and his cost real. Let me look, I forgot to write it down. This is the craziest thing with this type of buzz. I think there's a stigma that kind of goes around sometimes with a lot of like what is the translation gonna look like?
From uh?
Players that come over from either Japan or Korea has and Kim one of those examples. Pitching is a little bit different. Shota has an ADP and average ADP of one ninety even going outside the top two hundred in sites. Now he is starting to get on a rocket.
But guess what, even.
That rocket that's moving up the ADP, it's still a bargain. It's not gonna take a ton. It's just gonna take innings and relative success that we've seen in Spring for him to blow past the value.
So even if he goes.
From one ninety EIGHTP and goes up to one point fifty, there's still a ton of room for growth, win opportunities for the Cubs.
He's gonna have the support.
It's not a guy that's gonna be pushed off into a bullpen anytime soon. The fastball, the ivy, all the release points like, there's some dominant stuff in there that we I think is gonna have a really difficult time for translation early on. So Shota is a draft d a bargain. He is one of the few buzzy players from Spring that has not gone and broken past their value. So get them go and get them put him in the rotation SP five or six.
There's huge upside.
I mean, look, I feel good about him as my three. I gotta be honest with you, So any spot where you can get.
Him as your four or five, or I don't know where you're getting him as your sixth starter, but sign me up for that one ninety.
If you're going around one ninety, I guess I'm looking on Fantasy Bros.
Right now.
I can see adyps Yahoo. He's got a one eighty six eighty P one hundred and eighty six players through Do you easily could have four to five pitchers already locked in, and then you're putting him at the bottom. That's what makes him even more of the draft day bargain.
All right, back to my list here one sixty seven Francisco Alvarez of the New York Mets. Now you know I love a player if I love him despite the fact that he plays for my Mets, because Alvarez is a guy that has thirty home run potential this year at catcher. I understand the batting average a bit of a drag. I get that, but let's not forget this guy was one of the top five prospects.
In all baseball coming into last year.
Let's not forget the batting average was much higher over the minor league career. Now, he did struggle little bit of triple A, but still two seventy three batting average, three eighty four on base a five twenty nine slugging over two hundred and fifty seven minor league games. Last year was about getting comfortable at the major league level. He showed you the power. You're learning a pitching staff, You're trying to figure out things.
It's a process.
Again, He's only gonna be twenty two years old this year and he's hitting clean up for the Mets. So he is hitting in front of McNeil, but behind Pete Alonzo, with Nimo, Lindor and Alonzo all ahead of him.
What a great situation it is.
So you have to pitch to Francisco Alvarez in his lineup, and I think you're gonna have to quite a bit because I think those guys are gonna be on ahead of him, and I think that that could mean a huge breakout potential for Alvarez.
And we like some of these other catchers.
We like Ohape, we like we like Moreno, we like Garber, there's some values there. But if I'm gonna circle the guy that can hit thirty homers and really be special and also dh because they want to get his bat in the lineup when he's not catching, it's Francisco Alvarez, and I think there's upside for a lot more, but also a pretty good value already built in at one sixty seven Welsh one more guy on each of our lists,
So let's get after it. Here your favorite draft day bargain remaining on the board at twenty twenty four, and he is the cheapest of all the guys that we've talked about so far.
Yeah, I did.
I ordered mine in kind of a most expensive to cheap outside the top two hundred. This has been a guy that we've talked a bunch a bunch about, Jamer Candelario. So I did say, like Josh Naylor would be such a cool corner infielder. It's not gonna happen all the time Naylor, especially at fifteen team rodo. He's gonna be a top fifteen first basement, So it doesn't always happen, So you're gonna have to look elsewhere. When I do,
it's Jamer Candelario. Who last year hit two fifty one twenty two homers, seventy RBI, seventy runs, but now goes to Great American Ballpark, gonna play every single day, and that explosive young lineup with Elie de la Cruz, Matt McClain in front and players fallen left and right. So if there's any other question about you know, how how is his playing time going to be consistent? It's locked in there. This is one of those instances where you
see projections. After having a fine season twenty nine thirty year old, now you see projections beat across the board in almost every system. You see the numbers going higher. Twenty two homers last year. You look over on the bat X, it's right at twenty one, but the batting average two fifty two higher than last year. You see projections around two sixty. You see RBI numbers even in zips up to eighty eight. This is a great place to hit with guys that are running in front of him.
I think the RBI opportunities can get into the nineties. I think he can hit around two sixty, and I think the home run totals are being under sold. He has some of that Josh Naylor in him that he can hit for higher batting average, and I wouldn't be shocked if you put up a Josh Naylor ninety seven RBIs this year. I love Candelario and he qualifies it first and third. He is an ultimate draftda bargain. Gotta have him on your team, util, corner, infield, whatever it is,
I want Jamer Candelario. He's one of my favorite players to draft. In its post two hundred.
I have one question when it comes to Candelario, which I think is the most important one. And again I don't think you have a crystal ball, but I'm gonna ask it anyway. When Marte comes back from the suspension, is there any chance that he's the one that gets squeezed if everybody's healthy.
I would say one percent chance. Because what originally was planned was Candelario was gonna be the everyday first baseman that was gonna be his gig. Strand was gonna play DH a little bit of first and maybe move around in the outfield. So I think they go back to that, but we're gonna have a better insight. We've also seen Frehley get hurt, TJ Friedl get hurt. We're now gonna have to see Benson to see if he can do anything more than a split where Spencer Steer sits.
There's a lot of questions.
There are a lot of guys out there, but they signed Candelario to be the core, the middle, a team leader that these guys build around. So no, I don't think Candelario is affected in any way. When Noelvie Artake comes back.
All right, last guy for me, there's another veteran, thirty seven year old at ADP of one to seventy six. You Darvish, Darvish concern was the health well, the elbow bone issue that he was able to take care of.
Everything got cleaned up there.
No, it was the bone spurs, I believe, correct, Welsh right, correct, We's right, that sounds right.
I'm just making things up. No, it was the bone spurs.
It's issues and something that Cole Hamill's had years ago too, and he got a cleaned up and he was fine the next year. So far in spring as of recording this, nine innings over three starts for him, ten strikeouts, one walk, a one point a zero seven whip, a two eight nine ERA over those nine innings Now it's only nine innings, but it's important nine innings because it's telling me you Darvish is healthy.
Now you Darfish is healthy.
This is a guy that has two hundred strikeout potential and you're getting him where one seventy six. That's absurd. We talked about the Imanaga value at one ninety. Look, if these two guys are on the board, I'm still gonna take you Darbish every single time because it's a proven track record. I know last year was ugly, but he still had a three to one strike out to walk ratio over those one hundred.
And thirty six innings.
It was really a matter of getting that elbow right and getting healthy. He was not healthy all of last year. We've seen darbaship times have down seasons in rebound. This seems like it's setting up for another one. But it's scarier every time. And I get why. It's because of the age. When you're thirty seven years old, you see some of these guys, you know, getting to the late thirties, early forties, you see Shurez or Verlander, Kersh all those guys starting to break down.
And that might be the case.
Maybe he's not a guy w's gonna throw one hundred ninety innings ever again, we're gonna give you one hundred and sixty. If he does, he's gonna give you phenomenal productivity. And the upside's there for more. The Padres are still a really good team. I know SODA's not there, but they still got bowguards, they still got tattists, They've still got Machado, they still got Kim. It's a really good
rotation too. We started the show talking about how loaded the National League West is, talked about the Giants edition to SNeW We talked about the juggernaut lineup that is the Dodgers, and here are the Padres. Not to mention the Arizona diamonbacksh went to the World Series. But the Padres here with a rotation that arguably is the best one went healthy. Because you're talking about Darvish, King Musgrove, cease Man Welsh, the Padres, I don't think are going away.
And if you Darvish is right, I think this is one of the best draft day bargains you're gonna find. What do you think about you, Darvish? And are you somebody like me that's looking for him everywhere? And taking the discount everywhere.
I would say I actually wrote his name down on this started to go, and the only reason I didn't was because the airing of this episode was going to be after his start, his first start, and it could either be really bad or really good. But at the end of the day, yes, I want you Darvish, You Darvish. He's one of those guys that it could go either way. Like the injuries can keep him off. He was pretty inconsistent last year, but we know what the stuff is.
We know when he hones in, he can go deep innings. He can be a massive strikeout guy. He can easily blow past his ADP and his value and be dare I say, like we did the episode League Winning, like he could be that type of player with where you're getting him, getting a guy you know that is maybe the fortieth SP or thirty fifth SP off the board, that could be a top ten. They're hard to find at this level, and he is one of those guys.
The problem is the variance. Though I'm taking him wherever I can absolutely well.
Fun fact, last year, you want to take a guess where he was on Fantasy Pro's average draft position in terms of picture rank where it would be sp what last year.
I mean, I want to say it wasn't super high if I remember correctly, was it like twenty eight nineteen?
Okay, okay, no, it was super high nineteen.
So again, healthy you Darvish now is being regarded as let's see you Darvish right now? Is fifty one the fifty first starting pitcher. That's absurd. Something in the middle is very likely. But there's also that range of outcomes where he gets back to somewhere on the top twenty five, and if that happens, that is a huge bargain discount.
But we want to hear from you. Drop your comments.
You tell Welsh and myself who your favorite draft day bargains are of twenty twenty four. Let's all help each other out here. Don't forget to subscribe to the channel, but when you do, not only drop your comments, but also make sure you ring that bell for notifications, you know,
every time a piece of content drop. Here on the channel, we've got the podcast, the short form videos, we've got the social shorts on here, the YouTube shorts, but we've also got Leading Off Live starting Thursday the twenty eighth, where Welsh and I are gonna wig out because you guys are amazing, and now we have seventeen thousand subscribers on the channel. We want to get it to twenty. God knows it kind of stupid. We'll do it twenty, but at seventeen we're gonna be wearing our wigs. I'm
gonna order mine right after recording this today. Hopefully Welsh's landing on his because you know the two day Amazon Prime. You got to get the wigs here ready to go. So join us live twelve thirty Eastern Time every Monday through Thursday again, starting on the twenty eighth, that's Thursday Opening Day. It's gonna be a glorious time. We're gonna have a lot of fun. We're gonna talk a lot of baseball, and we're gonna win a lot. That's what we're gonna do. We win a lot of leagues, all right,
that'll do it for us. But the story of the game goes on for the Welsh.
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.
Kids.
Enjoy your bargain hunting