Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It's me Joey Bay, Joe Pizafia, and you know what time it is. It's baseball time and it means early drafts. We got best ball going on, we got early rankings going on there up right now at Fantasypros dot com. There's also a lot of buzz going around about a lot of players. So today, my good friend the Welsh and I are gonna sit and talk about the ten players that are breaking draft boards right now, moving up, moving down.
Maybe the value is good, maybe not so good.
We're gonna tell you as early NFBC drafting has already begun, and we're gonna see if we can help you crack the code on some of these players that I'm sure we're gonna talk about Welsh from now all the way into marsh because some of these guys right now are definitely buzzworthy.
The other word would be like polarizing. I think all ten of these guys are kind of polarizing, whether it's pulling up or down in drafts. And the idea is these guys are breaking draft boards because this is a lot of the big movement. This is a lot of the big focus. These are things that you might need to be prepared for the early trends if you start checking in around March. Luckily, we're here to help you
kind of navigate that whole process. Whether it's I've got my ranks primer available, the article you can check out with my ranks over on Fantasy Pros, or stuff like this. We've got to try to identify and that's what we did here. These are the crazies. These are the crazies. Some are going to open your eyes, some you might not know about, and some you need to take advantage of. So let's talk about those players breaking the draft boards.
Let's do it, and don't forget everybody. The Draft Wizard's going to be open before you know. It's a go to Fantasypros dot com. Get on that Draft Wizard, start using it, start training yourself, training your brain for baseball drafts. All right, let's start with somebody here in the first spot leading off Ellie Dela Cruz, one of our favorites on leading off our program last year. Well, somebody we were so excited to see. You got to see him in person before in AFL and you know, this is
a very exciting player. Last year he was everything you could possibly made the two ninety eight with one thousand ops over in thirty eight games last year in Triple A at twenty one years old. Then he came out to the big leagues at thirteen home runs and ninety eight games there. Now he only had two thirty five, and he did have the OBP go from three ninety eight to three zho one.
So clearly the strikeouts are.
A problem here, but we know the speed he offers to thirty five steals and thirteen homers, that is something that's very tantalizing. So we're looking at the ADP right now of twenty two. It was nineteen earlier before in November to seven and some of the early ranks that were going on. But at least one of these players that I think we all look at and say there might not be a ceiling like he is that kind of a special guy. Bigger kids got to fill out
a little bit more. Certainly, there's a little bit more growing physically for him to do, and also the maturation too at the plate in terms of seeing so many pitches striking out as much as he did there's obviously a better version of him somewhere. The question is are we going to see it in year two or do some of the struggles and some of the negatives kind of linger into the sophomore season and the perennial sophomore slump that we deal with with so many players.
So when you're looking at.
Elie de la Cruz, do you let the excitement kind of get away from you a little bit in this early ADP or you somebody that is thinking, Yeah, this is kind of where I want.
Because I want to be in the Eli Delacruz business.
I think I am the former. I think that's how I say it correctly, would be the former side of that for the first one, Yeah exactly, yeah, exactly. I didn't mess that up.
I think I got that in lay terms. That's the first one.
In dy tunes. But you kind of said it in the very beginning, like he does everything, but he does everything positively and negatively, Like the one of the hardest hit balls, like the third hardest hit ball of the year at like one nineteen overall, which was absolutely absurd, big hard hit numbers. I mean, the guy stole the three bases and stole home. I mean, what he did was great, but what he did bad was also not great. You know, the strikeouts or what are staring us in
the face. So there's a risk versus reward factor. And I know that when you're talking about like breaking draft boards here, that number might not seem like a lot, but to move three spots inside the top twenty five over a two or three month span, that's kind of eye opening. He has a men pick of a so that means some people are comfortable jumping in at eleven. I was granted this position in one of my draft champions on both sides obviously first and second round, and
I passed. I've got him lower than the so just out of curiosity, I went really safe. I went Freddy Freeman and oh man, I'm complete, and maybe Corey Seeker. That might have been what my parent understand that, Yeah, it was like a really really safe I.
Would agree with that that judgment call that you made, though, I think that's the right judgment call because right now, I mean where he is on the early ECR on Fantasy Pros dot Com, and you can check out the rankings there a FP he is a thirty eighth overall player and that feels a little bit more comfortable. Now. I could argue all the way up to thirty, but I understand when you get into these formats like NFBC where people were like, look, the ceiling is just too big.
We can't let it go.
Because he is one of these guys that if you have him and he figures it out, the power and the speed, the combination of everything he brings and as you mentioned, the tough part is disseminating the negatives.
From the fun to watch factor.
And he's fun to watch, he's exciting, he's likable, you want to he's good television, but he's not necessarily good fantasy yet as a whole complete project.
Yeah, and I think you can take your shots in different spots with Alie. And this is why he breaks the board because he could fall. There are gonna be some ranks, some early ranks that have popped out, and it's because people are worried about the strikeouts. So where that is going to take away from the top end. He had a two forty XBA, which doesn't leave a lot of room for big batting average. But if he's
hitting two forty, that's great. Launch angle was crazy low, but it reminded me of Vlad Junior, where Vlad Junior in his rookie year was like hitting really really hard, but couldn't get the ball in the air. Ellie had a three point six degree launch angle, which you got to get the ball in the air if you're going to really take advantage of those homers. But good hard hit numbers, good barrel numbers. You tied for one of the fastest players, actually tied with Bobby Witt for the
fastest sprint speed in the league. But he is going to have a wide range of outcomes, not only in his production but where he's drafted in leagues, And it just kind of comes probably about the construction that you're putting in. I'm likely not going to have a lot of shares. I would love Ellie in the third, he
will cost you a second. And if he costs you a third, I think you can stomach it, especially if you put together something like a I don't know, Freeman Endeavors or a Freeman and Riley, or you could have a Freeman in an outfielder put together there. I think they're definitely constructions that you can do. But he has number one overall player upside, and that's why he has
a men pick of eleven. But he also has the potential to be outside the top one hundred and fall apart with those crazy strikeout numbers, which you know is probably going to push him in some leagues outside the top fifty. So he breaks boards across the board. But what is interesting is over the last two months he's falling down even in the big high money leagues where people are taking shots.
I like that, breaking boards all over the boards, all over the boards. That's Walsh has a number three for the season, number two on our list. Pablo Lopez of the Minnesota Twins, coming off a year with his highest strikeout rate in recent memory in his career NFBC ADP of thirty seven. It was forty six in October. So he's moving up a little bit right now in the Fantasy Pro's early ranks. Again, this is a guy who's
a top ten pitcher. He's ranked eighth overall and the expert consensus ranks right now with Fantasy Pros, and again you cannot deny Welsh. Last year was very eye opening, you might even say a breakthrough. The era was at three to seven. But when you dig deeper into things, you'll see that the XCRA was at three, the X fIF was a three twenty five. So there's even a
better version here of Pablo Lopez to be had. And Minnesota is a team that still looks to be very competitive this year despite some of the shortcomings of the American League Central at times that we've all joked about. But Pablo Lopez is one of these guys you have to believe whether or not this guy is an ACE or not to draft him at this current top ten SP value, that's the big question.
I know some people aren't sold on that.
I feel pretty good about it, and I still feel like he's going late enough where that's one of the two guys I'd like to pair with somebody else.
I like him as a pairing.
Like if you give me Pablo Lopez and then a little bit later, maybe the guy we're gonna talk about next, or maybe a shot at Yamamoto or a Logan Web, that's good start to a rotation.
But what do you think about Pablo?
Yeah, and I think one of the things talking about what you're saying is there's actually some good safety pitchers that go a little bit later. I personally am big into George Kirby this year, but you'd probably have to go back to back Lopez and Kirby. But you can get like a Logan Gilbert a little bit later. Zach Eflin is a really safe option Logan Web. So if you wanted to go, you know, third round Pablo Lopez, you have the potential to swoop in and get like
a six round Logan Web and that's pretty good. But you know, you're saying in the consistent consensus ranks, he's coming in at eight. He's going as high as a third sp in NFBC leagues, and it's because of not only what he did, but what a lot of the expected numbers are saying he can get too. Again, that expected era was one of the better jumps, three and a half down to three. The strikeout number is close to elite twenty nine point two percent with a low
walk rate. And one of the biggest reasons behind all of this was the change that he made. He added velocity to his fastball, which made that better. You don't see fastballs with really really high wift rates a whole bunch. Well, he had a thirty one and a half percent with rate. Usually that's on the secondaries twenty three percent with rate in twenty twenty two over thirty percent with rate on a four seen fastball crazy. But he added a sweeper
and that changed the game. It was his number one whift pitch thirty six point six percent and he threw it twenty one percent of the time. Previous year he was fastball change up. This year fastball sweeper change up, and even through a higher propensity of curveballs and sinkers. So the whole point of this is is there is a lot of strikeout potential. He gave himself a strikeout pitch. He added velo and expected numbers are telling a better story.
So people are anticipating the expected numbers to have a bigger year. If you think he's going to be top five, you're kind of getting a discount. But this is one of those situations. I kind of feel that, like the you're already buying him at the price of where he is going to push, so it's like you.
Have to return the value at eight.
He has to be better to return the val value of what you're paying for, So that makes a little dicey, But he is one of those guys. This is another one of those instances, he has risen of draft boards. I think you said the number a little bit ago. I think he was. Yeah, he was forty six in October overall, and he's jumped into the mid thirties and he's pushing into the twenties on his mid midpick. So if you want Pablo Lopez in those strikeouts, you're gonna
have to pay a lot. And he's gonna open some eyes when you see him in the draft room.
He's thirty nine right now on Fantasy Pros, ahead of Zach Gallen Tyler Glass, now, which I can understand why.
But that is an interesting.
Debate, and maybe the best piece of advice is they're all pretty close.
Maybe just take the guy that falls ye of the best value.
And I think that's probably when we start getting into our draft season or the shows, you're probably gonna see me doing a lot of that. Like I like these guys this grouping, just like I liked him last year and I attacked them hard in all those drafts, and I think the same thing here as you attack this grouping, because there isn't that much of a difference between them all.
And to your point, and this is a little bit different. But in that DC I had Pablo Lopez went in a third round and I swooped back and I didn't take a picture in my first three, and then the fourth round George Kirby felt to me and I took Kirby and it was like it was Pablo, then Gallon, and then I.
Just fund because Kirby's ranked ahead on Fantasy Bros.
Of Bablo Lopez, and I'm probably one of those reasons because because I have them above now, Lopez is the better strikeout option and there's a big push to chase your strikeouts this year. But there's something about Kirby specifically to me that has such a such a great floor. I feel like I can take more risks with guys like Glass now or the guy we're just about to talk about. If you wanted to maybe go back to back round pitchers.
Well three Schooble is that guy at number three NFBC ADP of fifty overall. And last year what a finish to the season. He had eighty innings, he was seven to three, one hundred strikeouts, just fourteen walks, a two eight zero era, a point nine zero whip, and you think will that era is unsustainable. You might be wrong because the XCRA was two three zero two feasts two five six excuse me for the x FIP, so it's
not a fluke here. Teri Scooble was straight up dominant and in terms of left handed starting pitchers, one of the best in baseball last year over those final eighty innings that he threw. Now, the question is what does it look like over the full season. That's what we want to see Kenny sustain this sort of pace. He was good in twenty twenty two, the three three seven era, so a lot of people liked him going in. Secondary numbers were good, peripherals were good, the whip was decent.
This was a whole other level.
So if he finishes with one hundred and sixty five one hundred and seventy five innings this year, with something between twenty twenty two and twenty three twenty three, I think he returns the value of this pick.
But what do you think, Welsh?
Yeah, I actually think this one is really interesting because it's like it's near Pablo Lopez, but it's quite a bit lower. Treek School's got so much going for him, you know, the stuff was incredible. I think it was like the highest expected era total. If he qualified of pictures of the eighty or more innings, he would have been number one. The k percentage was absolutely elite, pulling that up thirty two point nine percent with a sub five percent walk rate. That's like exactly what you want.
That is what you want in this world of pitching, especially if you're gonna try to jump into the strikeout marker. Good fastball almost ninety six, which was almost two miles per hour more than the previous year. His change up absolutely elite. Had a fifty percent whiff rate, one of a handful of pitchers and all of baseball that had a fifty percent withff rate on a dominant pitch. We've talked about them over the last couple episodes, so I love trikes Scooble. One of the only knocks though, is
the people that he faced. He had like a one point something ra at home in a four era away. That's one little marker because Detroit was a really pitcher friendly environment. But also if you look at his pitching log, here are the teams that he faced in the month of August. The White Sox, the Boat actually two White Sox Angels, A's and Royals. The month prior to that, you did have Yankees and Cubs, but you had Guardians, Red Sox and Rays. You know, the end the season is central.
In the Central soft anyway.
So like for no period, I look at that and I'm like, well, he's gonna get those teams again, And like if he was pitching in the American League East, maybe.
I'd have a little bit more of a concern, right or.
You know, but you know, he's gonna get a lot of Royals and a lot of Guardians and a lot of you know all.
You want to talk about breaking these draft boards, you got to break one. Who are you going with Pablo Lopez in the third or trick School in the fourth?
Uh? You know again, if I'm going, I'm you know me, I'm going hitter early one too. So if I want to double up on pitching, I like having both of them. But I think I keep coming back to the same thing, which is I'm gonna take the guy that's cheaper. I don't know if I'm ready to make Schooble my ace. So once again, if I did take Schooble I would probably want to pair him up right away. If I'm gonna have Schooble. I want to also have, as I said, a Logan Web who I trust, a Framber Valdez who
I really trust. You know, do they have the same upside as Garrett Cole? No, but I know who they are. I feel good about it, and I want that pairing together. I feel very important, like about three four five, if I can await with two pitchers there that I feel
really good about. Is the top two guys in my rotation two one a's or two high end number twos, however you want to talk about it, That's my approach, just like it was last year, because again you keep seeing the injury factory, keep seeing the turnover.
You see these guys were aging out.
These veterans that were so used to the Verlanders and the Shuress at the top of the board. Those days are gone, and the guys that are coming are not quite established yet. So you've got to be really careful because it is kind of a it's a very murky water because if you put too much draft capital into these guys, they don't pan out. You miss that on that offense, and it really does set you back in these deeper leagues.
Yeah, and another thing we talked about in the previous episode, like if you tuned out early, there are things that are a lot of these guys that are breaking these draft boards that we're talking about. These are things that might be kind of new to you, like, oh, I'm paying maybe second round for Pablo Lopez and oh Tarik Schoobles here, but you're gonna have to take more shots this year and you're gonna have to just be paying
attention to your construction. Scooble is another one of those players where you can balance out some of the inherent risk. And the only inherent risk here, lastly, is just the amount of time that he's been able to do this. It's sample size eighty innings. Though he was phenomenal last year in a good hitter environment, he is worth it and you can break those boards a little bit for trick school.
Now, one guy that we are already in disagreement with.
If you listen to the last show and go back and listen to it, you can watch on YouTube also Nolan Jones, NFBC ADP of fifty seven right now. So Welsh is not as big of a fan as I am, and that's okay. We can disagree on things here on the program. This guy at a twenty twenty season in one hundred games, and I understand that it's in course field.
I get that, but still playing at course field in twenty twenty four.
So the soon to be twenty six year old Nolan Jones as a player that last year in TRIPAA at twelve homers forty two RBI hit three fifty six with an eleven hundred ops. Granted it was in the PCL, but again, you can't help where you play. Todd Helton played his whole career in Colorado, and damn it, Todd
Helton was fun to have in fantasy. So I'm looking at Nolan Jones, look at the versatility of the guy, and I'm looking at what he can deliver, and I think this is pretty appropriate looking around where he's going right now, after Cody Bellinger, before Paul Goldschmidt, right now in our ECR. That feels right to me. What about you, I know you've had some hesitations, but comes to Nolan Joes. So let's let's have a bigger conversation about him here since we can today.
This actually might be like the number one hitter that is going to open up draft boards because people want him, and similar to Pablo Lopez, Nolan Jones is the Pablo Lopez of hitters this year because everything underlying tells this story outside of like XBA. Like his XBA isn't great. He had a really good statistical season this past year where he hit two ninety seven with a twenty twenty. His XBA is like fifty points lower. But if he
hit two fifty, we're still gonna take him. But what I'm getting at is, like Max ev was one fifteen, he had good hard hit numbers overall, walk was there, barrel percentage over fifteen percent, You totally want that with good hard hit numbers. So all of those things played this really good story in a hitter friendly environment. He hit all sides of pitching well by the way. He hit fastballs and breaking pitches over three.
Hundred lefties and righties over two eighty nine on both of them three four, which is against left headed pitching.
And he broke the curse of not being reliant on Colorado. He had as many homers away as he did at home.
My problem is and a nine hundred ops on the home roads spot too so and hitting for average also, so I don't get the concern about Nolan Jones because if those numbers were more stark Welsh, then I would say, yeah, you're right, that's kind of a red flag.
But I don't see the red flag here when it comes to Nolan Well.
I mean one of the okay, well, one of the red flags is are the strikeout numbers. I want to pull this up here because this isn't on the baseball now.
I feel like that's something we all have to accept, whether it's Eli cr whether it's.
You're not wrong about that, but part of it now. But Nolan Jones is also this like really high end passive. He's one of those guys do you matter, like Carlos Santana, where Carlos Santana would have like a really big OVP and big strikeout numbers, because it's like the two outcomer, the three out guy. They walk, they strike out, or they get a hit. And I know that seems silly how I'm saying it, but it's like there's not a lot of nuance in the game. It's gonna happen as
one of those. So the passiveness can also equate to lower batting average because he's not gonna He's not gonna he's gonna take more walks than he is just getting base hits. He kind of changed it this last year, but I'll throw here's one caveat. He had a four hundred babbit that is like the highest in the league, one of the highest babbitbs in the league. With expected numbers across the board that say it's gonna fall do I think Nolan Jones is not gonna be good. No,
Colorado's a great baseline. He puts a big, hard hit numbers. I love how he barrels. There's a lot advantage there. He doesn't pull the ball a bunch. Expected numbers don't play in as well. The babbit is way too high, and I think he's gonna come back down to earth. I think people are paying for him in the fifties as a thirty thirty guy. I think you need to pay for him closer as a twenty twenty guy, like he performed last year over a full season, and then
you can stomach it. Now, does a twenty twenty Nolan Jones feel good in the fifties. Maybe maybe it's still does. I'm not as enamored as everybody else is with him, though there is a story, as I mentioned, of why you would like him in all of those underlying numbers. He is someone that eight out of ten people in a draft want on their team. He will go higher than consensus. I would guess seventy to eighty percent of the time in drafts.
Of this year barrels per played appearance percentage, he was twenty fourth in baseball last year year. I think that accounts for some of that high babbit that you're talking about, like you're gonna have a better bat. This is where you know you take that one step further with the deep stats. And deep SATs are great, but sometimes they make my head hurt, and I'm sure a lot of people who love fantasy baseball it makes their head hurt too.
If you hit the ball hard, it's gonna find a lot more spots, and you're gonna have a higher babbit because you're hitting the ball so dam hard.
Yeah, and if you're fast and wills too. I'm not arguing any of that. I'm really pointing at a really high babbit in a short sample size. Sure that that kind of looks a little bit as a warning sign with really high strikeout numbers still I mean.
Five this year and he maintains the power speed levels. I'll take that at this ADP all that day, and that.
Is his projected Steamer batting average two sixty five. So I agree with you on that it will work. But there's some things are going to work here. This is why boards are crazy around Nolan Jones one under.
Bobby Miller is the next guy on our list, number five to talk about the Dodgers young starting pitcher. NFBC ADP is at seventy three right now. Bobby Miller last year twenty two stars for the Dodgers. He was eleven and four. Obviously pitching on a very good team, a three seven six era. The whip was at one point one zero for him. Last year he had the caper nine was at eight point six, which if you go back to the minor league level, it's around eleven for him.
So that's the one thing for me about Bobby Miller is like I kind of want to see the elite K guy. You know how I am strikeoutser sexy. I like my pictures strikeout guys because that means they get out of jams with big pitches at big times. Now, he was tough to hit two just one hundred and five hits at one hundred and twenty four innings. That's also an important one too, so he made up for that. The wall great was low two point three. So it's
Bobby Muller got you're buying in here. He doesn't have a lot of pressure on him because he got Yamamoto, you got Glass. Now we'll see what Walker Bueller, whether or not Kershaw returns. We're still waiting on that news. But Miller doesn't have a lot of pressure on him per se. But do you think the ADP is worth the investment?
Yeah?
I do. And this is one of those guys that has been he's creeping, he's creeping up. These people want to they want to be invested in in him. You know, you talk about the strikeout numbers two thousand and two below. He had never had under a ten point seven K per nine in the minor leagues. He's always been a high strikeout guy across the minders with a big, big power fastball. Then you know there, I mean, there was only four starts in triple A this year. There's a
little bit of a change in the process. And then you saw all the K numbers go lower, but I'll take that if this is about becoming just a better, more nuanced pitcher. I've said this a whole bunch, so apologies to people, but if you're just tuning in one
of the things I've loved about Bobby Miller. He's one of three starting pitchers according to stuff plus numbers, which Inina Sarus has in this over on fangrafs want of three pitchers to have a fastball that has a one twenty five plus stuff plus and a secondary which in this case is like I think is slider that has a won twenty five. But he also has five pitches that graded out at one hundred stuff plus or higher, and that is just one hundred is like the median line.
These are above average pitches he has with good control numbers that he threw out to us this year, a great fastball which is kind of key, which you really want. Ninety nine point one he averaged on his four seam fastball. And it's really going to just be about utilizing these secondary pitches because he is throwing five pitches fifteen percent or more of the time. So you take a history of strikeouts with great stuff numbers, good utilage of pitches and put it on the Dodgers. For me, Yeah, I'm
gonna buy Bobby Miller. I want all the shares he is rising. He's one of those guys that I think a lot of people are also targeting that want on their teams. This is a tough one. He he is one of those young pitchers in this pool of the Yuri Perez Is, the Grayson Rodriguez is, and the Bobby Millers. These guys all kind of break the boards in general. They are gonna be high risers. Bobby Miller is one that I definitely wanted to get in on, you know,
and you talked about it earlier. There is a team context. Treike Scooble, even though we're picking on like oh we faced the Royals and stuff, good because he's always gonna face him because he's in the division. That's a good thing that he's doing that. Well, guess what, Bobby Miller's on the Dodgers. There's gonna be run support every single game, every single game that's out there. And the division that
also has like the Rockies and stuff. So yeah, I will break my board all day long for Bobby Miller.
All right.
Jazz Chishom and the next guy, number six we're gonna talk about NFBC seventy six was sixty one back in October, but now he's at seventy six, So a little bit of a fall there, and I understand why. I mean, you look at the body of work here, it's a lot of incompletes for Jazz Chism. Moving to the outfield too, now he does qualifying a lot of leagues. Still at second base, you'll se him on the rankings their Fantasy pros. But last year nineteen homers in ninety six games, twenty two steals.
He's a two fifty hitter. I think we all know what he is at this point.
We seen enough of them to know, like that's where the batting average is going to be. The question is to get a full season, ever, and the full season does that equate to a thirty to thirty guy? And if so, then you're getting kind of a huge discount. It's just a matter of the risk reward. Where do you standwi Chism?
Yeah, no, you said it perfectly. You know what I think is really funny The trend in early drafts are is drafters are just so much less worried about sample size, and repeat of production that they can trust versus injuries. They'll take a guy that had forty innings or one hundred and fifty at bats or was good for a final month of the year exponentially over a player that
has any injury risk. And that is how early drafts work and how and then what that does is that tends to drive what the future price is going to look like. And as you mentioned, Jazz is moving down. Jazz has moved over a full round or in a fifteen team redal, he has moved a full round spot wise over the last couple months, and we're going to take that into the draft season. My only question, we are,
like you said, we know exactly who he is. He had a dog crap I expected batting average two twenty four this year, but we know he is a two forty to two fifty hitter with high strikeouts. But we also know the counting stats will be there, you know, whether it's whatever the runs and RBIs look like or relative to the games out there. But there isn't a production question. Can he be a thirty thirty guy? It's there. He does it even in his struggles. I'm actually down
with this. I am down with this, But I think this is the one, and this is why we identify this. You know, in this episode of breaking draft boards and stuff, Jazz Chisholm falling is wild. In a world where people are taking big risks to get their stolen bases, a guy like Nolan Jones with a four hundred babbb and is a twenty twenty guy people are pushing into the forties. The guy like Jazz Chisholm, who in his sleep is a thirty thirty guy who has strikeout issues and it's
probably a two or two to fifty hitter. People are dropping and dropping. I'm gonna take when I'm t my shots, Jazz will be one. I'm willing to take the risk on the injury stuff.
Number seven on our list Josh Young n FBCADP at one to ten. It wasn't ninety three. So this is another guy that's starting to go in the opposite direction.
Now. To our credit, Welsh, we loved Young last.
Year because he was a free square and we took him everywhere yea, and we looked like geniuses for the first eighty games or so because he had nineteen homers in the first half fifty six Reees hit two to eighty with one of the guys at the top of the board for Rookie of the Year in the American League, and then the bottom kind of fell out second half. He played only thirty four games, so obviously health was
an issue there too. Four homers, the batting average dropt from two eighty to two twenty nine, the ops one from eight thirty five to six thirty eight.
So definitely some issues there.
You could tie it to, you know, struggling a little bit against the right handed pitching, especially down the stretch. He still hit fourteen on runs against the right handed pitching, but that was a problem. The overall picture looks good, but now the draft stock is starting to decline. Do you think that's correct?
You know, I actually think we're kind of stabilizing a little bit with him, Like this is one of those well so you know, conceptually when we're talking about these boards again, like Josh Young is one of those players that I think a lot of people were like, oh, if I could have a little bit late, maybe I would target him. I'm not as enamored with him, I think again, you give me like really high strikeout stuff with a especially with a guy that is a complete devot.
He's devot of stolen bases. So then you're you see one category is gone, and then you go, okay, do you believe the batting average? Expect a batting average two sixty? All right, so batting average isn't a negative, but it's just not quite there. Overperformed on his counting stats with some injury stuff, counting stats from like RBI in runs that team just scored so many runs. But can he hit thirty homers? Yeah? Absolutely, that's one hundred percent in
his game in the nineties eighties. Did you want to really want to pay for that? No, But we're having the same jazz chism thing happen. There's such an overcorrection happening where people might have waited before, Oh I can
get Josh Young, Now they don't want to. Now you kind of can You can look back and say, hey, if I can post one hundred, if my risk is you know, the World Series contending top three run producing team, if I can get the corner infielder that is going to hit me to sixty two seventy eighty plus both sides and thirty homers, that's a much better risk. The
injuries are concerned. He had two different injuries that were going on zapped a little bit of the production, but is not enamored as I am with Josh Young post
one hundred. I think the correction is going in the wrong area and that is kind of an advantage for people as you are in your draft constructing and looking on you Actually, I think can now look to like, oh, Josh Young is a backup for me because he is falling down wark That is a dramatic What is that almost twenty spots over the last like two months or three months. That's a big drop.
Sure, yeah, that's a big drop, and it's understandable.
Look, there's also a lot of buzz coming around after you know, the team won the World Series and again that first half was so good. You know, you're trying to figure out did he get figured out? Did not make adjustments?
Was just health? Like?
What was it the wear and tear? He had had some injuries previously too, missed an entire season, So was it just.
The stamina issue too?
Like, There's a lot of things you could start to ask yourself those questions, But I think you're right. I think the assessment of the ADP is correct for and.
I wrote about him in The Black Book. People want to check it out, The Fantasy Black Book available now on Amazon. This I did the infield and he was one of those guys where you know, I'm really focused on the strikeout rate. I did point out something you can take a look at, was he really dominated on like inside portions of the zone. But I think pitchers are going to see that he was well below average on both the outside portions of the zone on the
top and bottom. So I think you're going to get pictures that are going to be tacking the outside even more. And he has a really bad poll rate, So what is that going to look like If he gets more outside zone pitching and he's not pulling the ball. I worry that that's going to equate to not as dramatically high results. But again, I like the overcorrection. This is why the overcorrection is good for Josh Young.
All right, let's see what's gonna be good for the Brewers young superstar Jackson Curio, who we all believe is going to start with the big cull. Otherwise why would you pay him with that giant extension? So I'm sure the players Union wanted him to wait, but when people were offering you guaranteed money of that magnitude, it's hard to say no when you're just the boy and he is still and that's the one thing you got a timber expectations. The NFBC ADP right now for him is
one forty five in Churio last year. Just in case you weren't paying attention in the dynasty realm to Jackson Curio in the redraft scenario, now you're gonna have to because in double A last year he had twenty two homers forty three stone bases at two to eighty just an eight h three OPS. He had six games over in twenty twenty three. He did play in the Fall League this year too, where he hit three seventy nine with a nine to eighty four OPS the winning league.
Pardon me, in the Winter League. My apologies, but Cheerio is a player that is going to get a ton of attention, and rightfully so.
The guy's got power, he is young.
You're talking about a guy who could switch it like you're talking about a guy who could do it all. So this is a really exciting young player here. So what do you think about Jackson Curio in terms of his twenty twenty four redraft value, because I think that's the thing that we're all trying to figure out.
And and part it's not about loving the talent or not. It's about loving the talent in this situation he's in.
Yeah, So let's get back to the concept of this episode. You want the real players. They're gonna break your boards the next three or them, because their ADPs are so low in a lot of these pre draft things, in specifically in NFBC leagues and any league, because there's there's no lack of assurance that they are there. We assume they are, but people want that little step. If Jackson Trio is named the outfielder, let's just arbitrarrily say March first.
They say, you know what, it's his job, Like Julio Rodriguez from a previous year two years ago, where he went from you know, two twenties up into the like high one hundreds, pushing inside the top one hundred, Trio will do the same thing. Trio is already kind of being presumed in that area inside the top one fifty. But don't get confused. The possibility is that he could go higher inside the top one hundred because this is
a twenty twenty guy. Key key factor for him was lowering his strikeout rate previous year twenty twenty two, twenty eight percent strike out rate in High A, twenty two in I'm Sorry in A, twenty two in High A, and then he went to Double A and struck out a whole bunch in a very short sample size under nineteen percent at Double A in twenty twenty three. Big power, huge stolen bases showed the ability to cut the strikeouts down. Steamer projection in one hundred and twenty eight games has
got him just under a twenty twenty guy. I think this is a great bet for twenty twenty season, a good Rookie of the Year candidate. I think he will break with the team, and he doesn't cost you a top one hundred. That's why this breaks up this whole thing. When you can get these type of discounts early, you do it when things stabilize. I think he'll still be worth a top one hundred pick when we get into the seventy fives and sixties and stuff like that. That's
where things get a little bit dicey. But just remember that's where guys like Bobby Witt and Corvin Carroll pushed inside the top fifty, you're getting a discount. This breaks the whole mold.
I misspoke earlier too. He's a right handed batter and not switch hitter. So I was just so excited about Jurio. I forgot that for a second. But you know when you continue to watch the highlights of him, and I've been watching a lot of him in the offseason, just trying to, you know, again, after a football season, get up to speed on some of the guys that not get to see enough of last year. In terms of the minor league stuff. The hands are fast Welsh. The hands are fast as a strong kid. I mean he
attacks the baseball. You leave a pitch up in the zone too, he is going to murder it like he is that guy. And that's one of the things too. When you watch him, you see a lot of those balls when the balls get elevated on him. Sometimes that's a problem for young players. That's where you'll see a lot of young players kind of you know, like the
old I like the high ones kind of stuff. You throw a ball up in the zone of this guy, he is going to put it out somewhere in you know, five hundred feet somewhere, and that, to me is so impressive. And I think it's because his hands are so fast and he's got such a good aggressive approach there. But that's one of those things too. I think when you look at some of these young players, you know, sometimes
you can beat them up high. You cannot beat this guy up high with high fast balls, like he's going to absolutely murder them. Whyatt Langford another player to talk about NFBC ADP right now currently at one excuse me, one fifty six. I was gonna say forty six, but that would be incorrect. So Wyatt Langford another player here for us to figure out, as it were, a young player here and for the Texas Rangers, and we're trying to figure out what he is going to be in
twenty twenty four. You look at the ADP, do you think this is a player you're going to be investing in at this price?
If you go and look at my ranks right now, you will see I have Wyat Langford inside my top one hundred. So yes, I do. For all intents and purposes, for people I've talked to, the Rangers are expected and Their expectation is like he gets this shot, like they're going into camp that he can be one of their outfielders, one of their dhs. They're not looking to replace. They're going to give him every opportunity and his opportunity last year he went absolutely insane. He had nine homers in
just under forty games. I think it is, or maybe it was forty one total minor league games, over double digit stolen bases. Hard hit numbers were through the roof. He hit over three hundred at every level. I got to see him in his pro debut out here. I saw two different games in complex level. The guy can run, he can hit, he's patient high OBP players. He's an
advanced college bat that they are going to move. It's a little weird that the team might jump in with like two rookies Evan Carter and White Langford, but I think at this point guys like Cherio and Langford are going to be given the opportunity, if not early. And again, this is like outside the top one hundred. These are
phenomenal spots. But don't be surprised when Wyatt Langford goes inside the top one hundred, and don't be surprised when the announcement happens that the new norm for both of these players is inside the top one hundred.
Yeah.
You mentioned Evan Carter last time we talked about on the show. I was trying to find a comp for him in my brain and I happened to catch on MLB Network they were running an old you know, baseball seasons, and they're right in front of me was Wally Joiner. And if you are as old as me, you remember Wally Joiner in Wally World with the California Angels then California Angels and very similar.
Kind of stroke.
Left handed hitter, you know, had you know, made good contact, had to pop all these things. And I'm watching and people forget like he kind of was this huge rookie phenomenon. Then he got hurt in the playoffs, had a staph infection his leg. He was never the same player he Actually they were up three to one in that series. They ended up losing to the Red Sox. Again, these are useless bits of information, but fun. But that's the guy that he kind of reminds me of. Was watching
these Wally Joyner highlights. We were talking about the eighty six Angels and I'm going, ah, that's the Evan Carter, that's the comp I'm looking for in terms of player. And you might have to go back and look at some old things as Wally Joiners see what I'm talking about. But I think that is kind of the style and hopefully you know he is able to have a longer, better, healthier career than Wally Joyner had. But people forget when
that guy came on the scene. He was like a revelation and he was a big reason why that veteran club made it to the playoffs at all.
I'm not saying this will happen, but I will not be surprised if White Langford just given the opportunity and runs with it early that by let's just say mid April to May, he's hitting third for this team. Because right now, the assumption is Simming is leading off seegers to Evan Carter would be three. You're probably looking at Josh Young at four, and then they could throw like a Jonah him in at five.
That's where Young is valuable if he's gonna hit in the middle of that order with those guys ahead of him.
Point to this is you go back to back lefties with Carter. Carter struggled against lefties. If you have Carter backing up Corey Seeger and you're going two lefties, and if he struggles and Langford doesn't, then you can go righty, lefty, righty. Don't be surprised because Langford HIGHOBP player, really good contact, hard hit numbers could run. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that a different rookie is hitting three for this team, because it ain't gonna be secret.
And Simon, those two are locked in, so that spot is open. And if it does. But there's a lot of speculative stuff here, welly freak browards.
Last guy we're gonna speculate here on today, number ten, Junior Kamanio NFBC two seventeen. Now, obviously there's gonna be some openings in the infield in the Tampa Bay situation. So Caminaro is just nineteen years old, he'll be twenty this year. If you go back and look at last year's stats for him, Look, it's you're you're talking about a guy who played as high as double A last year.
You're talking about that showed you twenty home runs there at eighty one games at Double A. He hit three fifty six at single A. Before that at high A over thirty six games, he hit three fifty six at one thousand ops at A nine to twenty one ops in those eighty one games at double A. So it seems like he is ready for at least that audition. But it's Tampa, and Tampa's that one thing that.
We always saw, Oh no, what are they gonna do? How are they gonna act? Now?
Rules have change, so it's easier to do this nowadays, and there the need is more obvious now. So do you think that Camonaro gives us enough of a season to warrant the two to seventeen ADP that he's currently going at.
Yeah. I actually think Cameron Aro could be one of the biggest values in drafts right now. And this is another one of those guys. If they said tomorrow that Cameron Aro is the starting third baseman top one twenty five, without question, maybe inside the top one hundred, I think was in the realm of possibility as well. He came up, he was fine in his uh was it seven games that he played? He went into the offseason, played in the Dominican Winter League, I think hit another six homers
in like twenty something games. Absolutely dominated. Here's the deal with that lineup though currently it says Esac Praides is their third baseman and they just traded for Jose Cabro, who's gonna be their shortstop. Well, Praidies has been in trade rumors the entire offseason and could be shipped out Dhing right now. Richie Pelosio, So I know you love. My point of all this is to say there's open spots. If he's gonna play third base, Parides if they kept him,
could play DH. You can put him there. Yes, I think four hundred and fifty plus played appearances is a good bet. It's post two hundred. He's got thirty plus power. He's an electric bat. There's no speed that's really in there. But this is one of those guys you talk about, Oh good, wait for Josh Young, you can wait for Kevin Arrow. He's a target in every single draft, and really the braid the board breaking is going to be about who the person is in the draft that decides
to pull the trigger on him. Because I think he can push inside the top one point fifty. And like I said, if the announcement happens. You want to bet on a thirty plus home run power rookie hitting near the middle of the Rays lineup, absolutely, and you will bet near the top one hundred if they give him that spot. But to your point, he didn't play in the minors past double A, but they did give him the opportunity in the majors.
But physically he looks like he's ready to. Oh, Like, the physical.
Build of him, the lower half is very strong. We always STI look at Evan Carter and I go like, he's still got some growing to do. He's got some filling out to so's ely do a Cruz to a certain extent. But he's such a tall guy. It's a very different set of circumstances. So, you know, the tall, lanky guys sometimes it takes a little while there, But when it comes to Cavi and Arrow, it's very different. Like Cam Arrow looks like a guy who's playing right now.
He looks like a lot like the guy he's probably going to be replacing at that infield eventually. In terms of what he means to the Tampa Bay.
RAI, Yeah, and he won't be in he won't be in it. Short But you know, listen, I've said this and people know this, but I talked to Carson Williams, who's the top shortstop prospect for the Rays. It talked him in the AFL and one of the first things out of his mouth was, like, Judi, Camanarroo is the best player I've ever played with. He's the best player I've ever seen play within person. And he joked, He's like, you know, when when someone wants to talk defense, they
come to me. When someone wants to talk offense, we go to Junior. And those are the two guys you probably see by the end of this year manning that side. Cam and Arow's home is at third base. And that's why focus on parades. If parades is gone and traded, I think they have made full room for it, and and I have asked some team personnel and the thing I keep hearing is, yeah, people love the idea of getting this extra pick when it played, because Junior Camonaro
will be if he breaks camp, he's eligible. If he were to win Rookie of the Year, he will be eligible for that extra rookie compensation. It's not even about the pick, it's that player pool money. That these team want and what are the Rays love? They love to save their money and not pay their players. So if there's any team that would make sense this day and age, it would be for cam and Aro to break camp and then to get that extra pool money. He breaks boards and he should be on your team.
What I like about Camanaro when I watch him too, and this is why I think he is ready. There's times where it does it looks like he doesn't get all of it and the ball still goes out.
That's power, that's strength feel power.
Yeah, but you know, like some you know a lot of young players, like you know, when they get it and when they don't.
There's times where he hits the ball and you're like, oh, we didn't get all that one. The ball goes.
Out right like Ryce Lewis was.
Doing that, or a little bit of that, A little bit of that, a little bit of that like feeling too. Yeah, And I think that's one of those things when you look at young players, you know, in terms of are they physically ready to handle themselves at the major league level with some of the pitching they're gonna see and the wear and tear of the season, all that stuff. Like, I look at that body type, I look at what
he's doing in terms of the swing. There's times, like I said, where he gets all of it and you know it, and other times where you don't think so the ball still goes out and you go wow, like he just literally took that one and muscled it out there, and that's very impressive for a player at nineteen twenty years old. That's a very impressive thing. So what do
you think about all these players? Drop your comments below in the YouTube channel let us know, and of course make sure you subscribe to the Fantasy Pros MLB channel over on YouTube and wherever you get your podcasts, the Fantasy Baseball podcast over at Fantasy Pros. Go check out the rankings at fantasybros dot com and of course the Draft Wizard open for business very soon.
Go check it out.
Keep looking any day now, any hour now, it should be there ready for you to start practicing, and you could see where these guys are going for yourself that I'll do it for us, but the story of the game goes on for the Welsh.
I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time.
Kids,