10 Players Projections HATE in 2025 (Ep. 940)

are here on our Twitch live. You can also watch on YouTube on demand of course, but we're gonna be doing a lot of stuff here on Twitch live, so make sure you go to twitch dot tv slash Fantasy Pros and you subscribe today so you could be a part of all the live mannas because that's where Leading Off is gonna be live to start the season. We're gonna be live on YouTube two on Wednesday afternoons taking your question. So don't worry, we're not leaving there. Everything

is gonna be great. And today we're gonna talk about hate. Why because you know the Internet sometimes, Joe, it's such a loving, nurturing, tender place, so we thought we'd kind of changed it up from what the Internet is normally, especially social media and things like that. Instead we talk about some players, not that we hate, but the projections hate. So let's talk about this because you and Welsh did a show recently about the players projections love obviously people

who might have some big breakout seasons. But we're going to flip the script today, So Joe, take us behind the mindset of this program today that you and I are going to run through with these players.

terms of ADP. So what I've done is I'm putting the ATC projections into an auction calculator and the way that it works on fan graphs is that it'll show you ADP as well. So I'm picking out some players where the ADP is a lot lower than the projected auction value, and you're going to see once we get into it. I'll give you some comparisons in terms of guys who are close in terms of dollar range, very different than what you're seeing in terms of ADP. So

if you are a projections. Person These are essentially the players you should be fading heading into twenty twenty five.

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hours of wall to wall baseball. All right, let's start here with the first player on our list, Joe Alrico. Let's start with Jared Duran. Last year, Jared Duran was the darling of this program, especially me. I hype that guy so much, and even with my lofty expectations, Jared durand delivered. Scored over one hundred and ten runs, hit twenty homers, stole thirty plus bases, hit to eighty five. Yet something's telling you the projections might not be as kind to him in twenty twenty five.

this year. He's a second round pick in most rooms if you're looking at the ATC projections and it's a twelve team auction calculator that I'm using, Jared Duran comes out as the thirty first overall hitter, not even including pitchers, thirty first overall hitter, behind Manny Machado, behind Jazz Chisholm, behind Katel Marte, Raphael Devers, a lot of players that are going a lot later in draft rooms than he is. I think part of it is that they're calling for

some regression in terms of the batting average. ATC hasn't projected at two sixty eight when he hit two eighty five last year. They're also calling for three fewer homers, a drop by twenty runs, six fewer ribbies, and four fewer stolen bases. So really, across the board, ATC is calling for a bit of regression. With Jaron Duran, I'm really not one hundred percent sure what to make of it.

I think that the projections are probably pretty fair, but he could also surpass them, especially in terms of batting average. He's hit two eighty five and two ninety five the last two seasons. I'm not sure why they would expect him to come down to the two sixties, but ATC is throwing some cold water on the Jared Duran love for sure.

I don't want to overpay for him either. Let's go to another outfielder. This one's in Chicago, says Azuki. Now, this is another guy that I think still ironically is undervalued. He is the eighty six player going off the board in the consensus ADP, which you can find, by the way, at fantasypros dot com. He's the twenty sixth outfielder off the board, but he's still going ahead of guys like Luis Robert, which I do have a problem with because Robert's a guy that has shown you thirty twenty kind

of a season. Say it's Azuki, I think is still more of a twenty fifteen guy, but he does give you batting average. What are you seeing in sayas Azuki's projections that have you a little concerned.

going right around pick eighty five. For another piece of context, he's projected is essentially the same value as Nick Castillanos, who's going about eighty five picks later than he is. So I understand some of the skepticism with say A Suzuki, but it feels like they're a little bit low in the batting average. The last couple of years he's been too eighty three to eighty five. I see some systems in the two fifties. Even the bat has him a two fifty seven. We're focusing in on ATC at two

sixty three. But it just seems a little bit too conservative. They're essentially saying he's gonna repeat what he did last year, and I guess that implies that he's going to miss some games as well, because he played one hundred and thirty two last year. Projections are for one hundred and twenty nine, but it feels a little bit light. I think that Suzuki can probably hit twenty five home run twenty five home runs if things break right with his

barrel right hard hit rates very good. I like him a lot more than the projections do.

is watching us live on Twitch. Thanks jelly Boy. He is thirty, so not that old, so he is still right in his prime good ballpark factor. For the most part. We're talking about improved lineup this year too, if Matt Shaw comes along quickly. Let's talk about these two outfitlders again here just for perspective. So I'm gonna give you some names going in the same ADP you tell me, despite the fact maybe the projections are being a little

you know, bearish here. Who you would want to take so, Cheerio or Jaron Durant.

pun intended or every punt intended. But seriously, like that is a tough one for me because if you are the safety neck kind of owner, then you are somebody that wants to have Jared Duran most likely as opposed to you know, waiting for and God forbid there's a setback for Ronald Acunya. What do you think here between those two guys, what kind of manager are you?

be very good. It's a great ballpark to hit in. There aren't the injury concerns I can see going both ways. For me personally, it's probably Duran because I know the injuries are gonna find me throughout the season. I don't want to be stockpiling them before the year starts. If Acuna has any kind of setback, that wouldn't be good. And also, the last time he returned from the ACL problem, the power was kind of zapped from him for at least that first year when he returned, So I'm not

exactly sure what kind of player we're gonna get. He's probably not going to run as much. You'd have to think that he's gonna take it easy a little bit after both of these.

Most people would have thought, oh, you know, the power will be there, but the stolen bases won't. And it was the inverse. Last time he came back from this injury.

rules had changed. So maybe we can factor in a few extra steals from him just from that alone, that it's a little bit easier than it was three years ago. But he is a nerve wracking pick in any league, whether it's a deep league, your shallow league, basket ball, whatever it is you're playing, you're taking on a lot of risk in the third round. I've seen some droughtser he starting to get pushed down to the fourth a

little bit. That's where I kind of like it. But there's also some rumsorre He's in the second and I think at that point it's a little bit too much of a risk. That's where Jared Durant's going, and it's a second round price on both of them. Then I would have to go at Duran.

ribby stole six bases, hit two sixty four. I don't want to say came out of nowhere, but he wasn't the guy that we were expecting to pop last year. We were looking for the Holidays and the curios dads, and Westburg is the one that we got that sort of broke out. Now, my concern with Westburg continues to be, what if Kobe Mayo hits the cover off the ball. What if, you know, Jackson Holiday, you know, finally lives up to the promise and him getting squeezed do the projection?

So anything about that possibility of Westburg maybe losing out on a little bit of playing timer ret bats, or do you think Westburg is locked in no matter what, they're just gonna find us.

it's about the same value as Luisa Rise. I know it's a much different skill set overall, but if you're just looking at pure value, they're projected about the same. Marcus Semian is projected as a little bit more valuable, and he's going ten or twelve picks later in a lot of rooms. Luis Garcia, who's been our guy Joe all draft season, is projected within a dollar and he's

going about forty picks later. So it's not that I don't like Westburg necessarily, It's just that I feel like I can kind of replicate his production down the board, and at the very least I can replicate the value that I'm getting out of that draft pick.

to double A numbers. And when you look at like twenty twenty two double A, you know, only forty seven games, but he had two forty seven. There's a lower version of Jordan Westburg that does exist. And if you look at the minor league ups and downs, it's not impossible to think that the league makes adjustments to Westburg and he could struggle a little bit. So this is actually a guy that I'm fading in twenty twenty five in

a big way. Now, one guy I'm not fading, and I think projections are too light on him is Mark Ventos of the New York Mets. And if you've been watching the shows for years, you know I'm the biggest self loathing Met fan there is. It's always dooming gloom. It's always going to be the worst. I knew that they were not gonna get to the World Series or win the World Series. I was just trying my best

last year to enjoy the ride, and I did. But the entos, to me, I don't understand how he There's no universe to me where he stays healthy for six months and does not drive in one hundred runs. It just doesn't exist with Lindor, with Lonso too in that lineup now getting on base ahead of him. I don't know if Peter A Lonzo is going to stick of that three hole. I gotta be honest with you. I think Vento's in that three hole would be much better hit Nimo four and Alonzo five. I think that's probably

the best version of the Mets lineup personally. But Joe, when you're digging deep into ATC and some of the other projection aggregates, what do you see about Vento's.

be what some of the modeling doesn't like. I agree with you that the power is completely legit, Like a fourteen percent barrel is a crazy number. Forty seven on the hard hit is really really good. I think that some people and the systems specifically, are just a little bit worried about what the batting average floor could be. There are some systems that happen as a two thirty hitter when you're looking at just the straight dollar values

compared to ADP. So he's the eighth third baseman by ADP, and he's eleventh in terms of the projected dollar value. You know, Alec Bohm is projected as a more valuable player. Jake Berger, Matt Chapman, Alex Bregman, these guys are all

going a lot later. And I don't think Joe, you're you're not going to agree with a lot of those, probably because you are Vento's guy and I get that, but if you are trying to replicate some of that value later on, you can wait a few rounds and you could take I mean, any of these guys really that I mentioned, Bregman, Chapman, Berger, Bom and they're all projected as a slightly bit more valuable than Vento's at a much later cost.

to play. But this is why I think lineups are so important. We touched about this a little bit and one of the last discussions we had with Suzuki. When you add onon soda to a lineup, it changes everything. And if you are going to hit him in the three hole, which again I think is a smart thing to do. Whether or not that's going to be out of the gate, we'll find out. But over time, I think it would be much wiser to flip flop those guys.

Stick Nimo in the four spot. And if you do that, Fientos is going to be in a tremendous position where he's going to see a ton of fastballs this year. So where he hits in the lineup matter, is hitting the five spot. I think maybe some of these concerns come to fruition if he ends up hitting in the three spot more often than not, I think he takes off like a rocket ship. Let's get to some more questions here too, because we've got some newbies here, which

we love. Black Raptors here. I'm new to Fantasy baseball, will welcome aboard. I've been watching you guys for the videos. And if I am later in the first round, would you go Schemes then Scooba or would you guys rather go and then look for a lind'or so that you can get Zach Wheeler, Gilbert Crochet, et cetera, et cetera, Or would you wait on a pitcher? Now it depends

on the format you're playing in blackraptor It depends. If you are looking at, say head to head points leagues where strikeouts are big money stuff and big points for wins, then I'm looking for big time pitchers, and then I would want one of those aces at the bottom for sure. I would still lean towards School. I think he's a little safer as much as Skeins as really interesting. If it's season long roto, I've been somebody, You've seen it

in the drafts. I tend to wait, and it's head to head, so there you go, so we see that. So even if it's head to head points or head to head categories, I'm a little more apt to go with a pitcher earlier. But I'm also okay with taking those two big hitters at the turn there and then coming around and settling for a Blake Snell to be my rotation head. I think the value there is still really good with some of the guys you're getting in

the third or fourth round. The problem is if you miss those guys in the top fifteen hitters, it's really tough to make up ground. So I don't like it in most roto formats, even head to head ones. Joe what are your thoughts on what Black Raptors trying to figure out this year.

But for me personally. You mentioned it, Joe, like, there are so many solid bats in the first round, specifically at the end of the first beginning of the second, Like, I think there's seventeen, eighteen, nineteen first round worthy hitters this year, And so if you're able to get a Vlad in Lindor Combo at the end of the first or Vlad and Carol or your Nlvarez and Mookie bats, Like, if you can get two of those lockdown hitters, that's

generally the way I like to go about it. And then you've alluded to some of these pitchers that are still going to be on the board a little bit later on Logan, Gilbert, Garrett Crochet, Zach Wheeler. Those guys, especially in a twelve team league, could still be sitting there in the third Wheeler maybe not Gilbert and Crochet almost certainly will be sitting there in the third round, and I think the crochet talking about his value compared to Schemes and Scooble, it's about the same for me.

There's not a huge gap there really. So if you can still take an elite star ace level pitcher while locking down two of those cornerstone hitters in your lineup, that's the way I generally like to go about it.

the players projections hate. This is from Bova Knight front of the show. Hey, guys in the Dynasty, startup slow draft right now. Ten teams with custom scoring that favors offense. I think, oh and power, I'm thinking offense right That's where we're got Okay, I have started with Churio and Acunya. Man, that is a pretty fantastic dynasty even for ten teams. Star, Can you give me a guy that you're reaching for in general in this sort of format, giving it's a

dynasty startup? Well, I like what you're doing here, Mova, which is you are focusing on offense first and building building a dynasty team around young position players, because that, to me, is what you want to do. Pitching can be very volatile. Pitching also turns over faster than anything else, so that is I think important. Where would you go next?

You want to try to reach for a guy like Crochet based on his age and now that he's with the Boston Red Sox, are you still going to pound the hitting table a little bit more as or somebody you're reaching for Joe in dynasty round? That fourth round? Is it a junior Caminero, let's say, or something like that.

their twenties, like Garrett Crochet. This channel me. While so all of us have loved Garrett Crochet throughout the draft season, I wouldn't mind going with him there. He's still so young, He's in a great spot in Boston. The ballpark isn't my favorite thing, but his talent is just brilliant. Like Garrett Crochet. There's a world where Garrett Crochet is the number one pitcher this season in all of baseball, and win was a cy young. I wouldn't even be a

little bit surprised by it. So if you're taking him in the fourth round and then you're backfilling some of the bats later as well. I get the pitching is more volatile in Dynasty, but you have such an elite base of five category guys with which Cherio Nakunya, I wouldn't mind if you want to pivot off and start going to some pitching now as well.

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AI solutions or whatever challenges you're facing. Microsoft empowers you with the expertise to say bring it on, and in this segment, we're gonna spotlight Anthony Volpe, who is a can't miss, quote unquote prospect who's frankly been missing a lot of balls lately in the first two years of his major league career. It's a pivotal year, I think for Anthony Volpe, because we're constantly in win now mode. If we're the New York Yankees, and let's be honest,

Volpi so far has not produced. I think up to what the expectations were. I think that is always a expectations are high. It's New York. Prospects sometimes get overrated. Now I've seen Volpe play in person a bunch. He's a very good player. I think he was rushed a little bit to the big leagues, to be honest, and I think he continues to press there. But if he doesn't produce this year, I would not be shocked if the Yankees start looking for a little competition and maybe

somebody else to fill that role at shortstop. And Volpi has power, he's got speed, He's a solid defender, but too much swing and miss. That's been his problem. Spot in the batting orders a problem too. He's always hitting lower in the lineup, that's not great. He's a good defender. Too much swing a miss. That's the big challenge heading

into twenty twenty five. Hopefully what Anthony Volpey can do is go back to some of the minor league tape and see what are the things that was doing there that gave me success, that made me a better contact hitter that I'm not doing at this major league level. Is he trying to hit too many home runs? Is he trying to press a little bit too much? But Anthony volpe I think is at a crossroads this year and it's gonna be very interesting to see what happens

to him in twenty twenty five. And that's this week's Chasing Challengers. Remember Microsoft AI solutions empower you to take bold steps and new ideas to help drive your business forward. With Microsoft as your trusted partner, you can navigate your journey with confidence of finding innovative solutions and reaching new possibilities. Visit Microsoft dot com Slash Challengers to learn more. What's your take on Anthony Volby this year?

I believe I'm just going to pull it up, but I believe it was June or July when they dropped him. It was July the third when they removed him from the leadoff spot and he never returned there for the rest of the season. Batting in the seventh through ninth spot, that's a concern. If he's batting seven through nine, there's not a lot of value there if you're looking at the straight projections. So first all start with the ADP. He's the fourteenth shortstop by ADP, and if you look

at the dollar value projections, he's twentieth. So a lot of that comes from the low batting average two thirty seven projected batting average fourteen home runs. If he's batting at the bottom of the order, then the counting stats probably aren't going to be great. He's projected for just sixty RBI. You know, he kind of took a step back last season. The barrel rate, which is something I look at a lot. I've referenced it all the time

on the show. He went from nine percent in his rookie year, which is really a good number, to three point nine percent. The launch angle fell from fourteen to eight, the hard hit rate went down, you know, the home runs went from twenty one to twelve. It was just a bad season for Anthony Bolpy. He kind of needs to prove it to me at this point that he can be a starting caliber shortstop in even a fifteen

team rotal league. At this point, I think he's like a middle infield option for the most part, maybe even a bench option at some point. But he's somebody like I've done a couple of videos, short forms and different podcasts on this channel where I've talked about fading him, and that's my stance heading into this year that Vulpi is somebody that's just too rich for my blood. Yeah.

an Eagles fan is also a Red Sox fan. I'm not sure how that got crossed up. But then again, I'm a Patriots fan and a Mets fan, which is nice because I've had cycles of joy and utter disillusion and it just goes in a circle for about twenty years where I just felt awful pain, awful pain, and then August came in training camp, and then Super Bowls and life is great, and then Spring training happens, and

then by June the Mets were out of it. Also here, Bova has some of the names that they were looking at, camin Naro, Gilbert, Langford, Streider, Merrill, and Sasaki. I gotta tell you, cam Naro's the want to stix out for me. I think Joe's gonna say Gilbert, but I don't want to speak for you.

So that's my stance, But I don't think it's like an obvious answer either.

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All right, let's get to some more players here. Let's get some pitchers here that the projections hate. I'll start with Corbyn Burns. New digs for him, Arizona, that's where he wanted to be. Now, the Arizona Diamondbacks scored a ton of runs last year in terms of ballpark environment. I mean, I don't know if you want to call it a push. I'm not sure where your head's at.

But Joe Cordin Burns started off really well. The second half wasn't quite as good as the first half, but you know, Cortin Burn's been a very steady pitcher for a while. How Well, However, I would say he is not a guy that, if you dial back to three years ago, has been quite as dominant. Maybe those numbers were unsustainable. What are the projections tell you about him in twenty twenty five?

Yamamoto below, Snell, Framber, Valdez. I think a lot of it comes down to the three fifty five projected era and the fact that he's not projected for a strikeout per inning. Corbyn Burns at times in his career has been a thirty five percent strikeout rate guy. He had two hundred and forty three strikeouts in twenty twenty two. Last season, in one hundred and ninety four innings, he

just had one hundred and eighty one. And if you look progressively every year from thirty five percent to thirty to twenty five to twenty three, he's lost ticks on the strikeout rate every single year. The phips are still very good, but they're not what they were in twenty one and twenty two. They're and like in the mid threes when he was in the mid twoes. I think that the ballpark is interesting. It's not a terribly hit or friendly park. It actually is pretty bad for left

handed power. So I don't think the park is a big thing for me. Really. It's just that I don't know what I'm getting in terms of strikeouts and era from Corbyn Burns. It might be in that three six, three seven range. And if I'm taking a starter in the third round, is my that's a little bit dicey for me. If he's not even gonna give me a strikeout, perinting, I think that's a little bit of a a little bit too much meat a stomach in the third round.

built character for you, Wonky Penguin. Here's another one, Tyler, I'm a Blue Jays an Argonauts fan. Does that count?

Now I understand, you know, we have to bake into some of the bad Hunter Brown in the projections, but I want to be more up. S'simistic when it comes to Hunter Brown. Why are some of the projections looking pessimistic?

deeper league. Brown is going to be your SP three. Maybe if you're really pushing it, he could be your SP two. I just think that there's a lot of risk there. Like Houston's still a good team, but they're not quite as good as they were. I think losing Kyle, Tucker and Bregman is a big loss. Replacing them with Walker and Parides definitely helps, but are they going to

be quite as good. Probably not. I think you can maybe shave a win or two off of Brown's projections, and I think that era is probably going to be somewhere in like the mid to high threes. So I don't know. I think he's a good source of strikeout, but he's kind of just not somebody that knocks my socks off this season. I've drafted him once or twice, but I don't know. I think you can do better in that top one hundred ADP range.

over either. Do you agree or disagree?

been a low, slow road for him. And it feels like Hunter Green is, you know, I think a twenty twenty four when you look back, really putting the pieces together, not just trying to throw the ball, but really trying to pitch a little bit more and starting to I think, find the outs and lineups, do the things that better pitchers do instead of just trying to blow everybody away and strike out everybody. However, the strikeout totals are extremely high,

and that is something we look for in fantasy. But when you're digging into the numbers and rejections for twenty twenty five, what did you see about Hunter Green?

ball sixteen percent, fourteen percent. Those are well above league gaverage, and then last year he went down to seven percent, which is below league gaverage. So is he somewhere in the middle layer? Probably you can split the difference. But I think you can also split the difference on a lot of the numbers from twenty three to twenty four, Like is he a four e two era? No? But is he a two seven five era in that ballpark

with his command? I don't know, honestly. Like the whip went from one four two two to one zero two. Like the way I'm approaching hundred, I was, what does one hunder brown? The way am approaching hundred Green this year is I'm kind of splitting the difference from his twenty three to twenty four stats, which seems kind of what the projections are doing. If he's giving you what ATC's calling for, which is a three to nine ERA and a one one seven whip, you can live with it.

But as a top one hundred pick, I don't know that you're gonna love it. Like he is projected in the same value range as Chris Sanchez, who's going about one hundred picks later or about eighty ninety picks later. Same as Gosman, same as Rodan, Nate E Evaldi. These guys are all projected right around the same dollar value. Flynn Rodriguez, Galen Rinaldo, Lopez, all these guys are projected

right in the same range. And I think without having to worry about Great American Ballpark, they might be a little bit safer.

of these people. If people are fading away from Hunter Green, I'm taking them and I'm taking that strike out upside along with it. Now he's only made twenty six starts. That's the career high last year. That also has to enter into your psyche when you're evaluating players. But at his age right now, he's gonna be turning twenty five. Look, I'm in on Hunter Green. I love the upside, and I think that Cincinnati Red's team it's gonna be a

very good, very athletic team there. You're gonna have a lot of positives in Ladolo and singer pitch well, they're gonna compete for that division. They're definitely gonna compete. Two more pitchers to talk about here, Let's go to Jared Jones. Now, we had Nick Pollock on the show. If you missed it, go watch on our YouTube channel. Jared Jones one of

the guys he absolutely loves. He had a red hot start to the season, kind of the inverse of Hunter Brown, and then of course some injuries happened and the rest was history. So kind of an incomplete downward spiral there for Jared Jones in the second half. But it's a new year, yes it is, So where are we going with Jared Jones this year? With the projections Joe, So.

to look back on. Projections do have a bit of a harder time, But he is projected as the number sixty starting pitcher with a five dollars value, maybe they call it a six dollar value in twelve team leagues, behind Robby Ray, behind Ranger Suarez, behind your guy, Seth Lugo, standyel Contratadge Bradley. These guys are all going well after him in drafts and they're all projected right around the

same range. I think that there is some concern the team stinks, like the team at the front office in Pittsburgh. I don't know what they've done here. You got a healthy policy teams, you have an ostensibly healthy Jared je Ownes right now. Your window to compete is open, Tommy Fans and.

Their average age of pitcher is what now between Charlie Morton and Segano and those I mean it is not young. I don't understand what they're thinking.

whip about a strikeout printing. It's fine. But if I can get the same value in Robbie, Ray Lugo, Al Contra, Nester Cortes, Ryan Pepio, all these guys who are going later that have better projections, I just don't really see the need to take a risky shot on Jared Jones. I still like him, like Dynasty Leagues, I'd still be buying into him, but I think there's a lot of risk in twenty twenty five.

Pepio very glowingly. So is Shane bos looking a situation where he could be a little Maybe he's the odd man out of this rotation at least to start?

because he's not terribly stretched out at the moment. There are some questions I guess as to how they're going to assemble the rotation, but I don't think Shane BoSz should be in jeopardy. That being said, the projections are not great on him, one hundred and thirty eight innings, which is not great in terms of volume, a four h five ERA, a one to twenty four whip and fewer than strikeout printing. The strikeouts I think are are misprojected there. I think that he is somebody that was

working his way back from a major surgery. The strikeout rate wasn't what it was pre surgery, but over the fourteen starts he still had very good results. He the three zero six ERA and a one zero six whip. I think the strikeouts will come back. This is a guy who had a thirty six percent strikeout rate in his first touch of major League baseball, and then the next year it was twenty six percent. Like, the strikeouts

are legit. The stuff is very very legit. With Shane Bozz, I think that this is a year where he can defy the projections. But I think we have to at least give them some We have to at least acknowledge them, especially considering the ballpark downgrade in terms of the pitchers that are going to be headed there too. Essentially, what is Yankee Stadium hot Yankee Stadium?

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Wednesday on our YouTube channel Subscribe today. That'll do it for us here, but the story of the game goes on for Joe Rico, I'm Joey P. We'll see you next time. Kids.